Ep 217 - Bank Failures 101 with Brian Romanchuk

When you learned of the run on Silicon Valley Bank, did the image of George Bailey come to mind, facing the mob demanding full withdrawals from Bailey Building & Loan?

“You’re thinking of this place all wrong, as if I had the money back in the safe. The money’s not here. Why, your money’s in Joe’s house that’s right next to yours. And the Kennedy house and Mrs. Maitland’s house, and a hundred others. You’re lending them the money to build, and they pay it back to you as best they can. What are you gonna do, foreclose on them?” (It’s a Wonderful Life, 1946)

Steve’s guest is Brian Romanchuk of Bond Economics, here to break down the conditions and events leading to the collapse of SVB. Spoiler alert: there’s no Jimmy Stewart, no uplifting message, no sentimental tears.

Brian explains how the American banking system is unusual relative to other developed countries. In Canada, where he lives, the Big Five banks are an oligopoly, but they’re diversified. They deal with all the nation’s banking needs.

SVB is a relatively small bank, specializing in venture capital. This focus affects expectation of profits and the decision to invest in long-term Treasurys. When the Federal Reserve, fighting inflation on the backs of the working class, raised interest rates, the ultimate result was the bank’s collapse.

Brian and Steve discuss how the Fed’s policies have led to a decrease in savings and an increase in debt, leading to greater inequality. They touch on Credit Suisse as well as pension funds in the UK, and try to clarify our understanding of bankruptcy and “bail-outs.”

Real life is more complicated than it’s presented in movies. Don’t expect any angels to get their wings.

Brian Romanchuk is the author of several books, including Modern Monetary Theory and the Recovery. He is the writer and publisher of bondeconomics.com. His writings can be found in his substack, The BondEconomics Newsletter.

@RomanchukBrian on Twitter