EMERGENCY POD: Epic Fury

0:00Welcome to another emergency edition of the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast. This is Sunday, March 1st, 2026. We're recording this at 4 p.m. Eastern time, and we're just going to talk about the last day or so in the war with the Iranian regime. Joining me, as always, executive ever, a green walled high Abe. Hi, John. I think I said EBITDA, but I said something like that. Editor and another editor, senior editor, Seth Mandel. Hi, Seth. Hi, John. And of course, commentary contributing editor and host of the Breaking History Podcast and columnist and writer at the Free Press Eli Lake. Hi, Eli. Hey, John, thanks for having me. Okay, so important details, a lot of different things going on. Iran has now apparently fired on 10 countries,

1:01not just Israel, which of course is a direct combatant and is itself dropping lots of ordinance and doing all kinds of things, but apparently is hit all around the Gulf, now targeting Cyprus and others, the purpose of which seems to be to say, we're going to be mean to you until you put pressure on the Americans to stop this war. And it seems to be having, based on public statements, the entirely the opposite effect that the Saudis have now basically agreed to go all in, even Britain, which yesterday issued an incredibly pusillant of a statement, because apparently a base somewhere other, the British got involved in some fashion are now sending typhoons. France has spoken and is somehow joining the fight. And various Gulf nations are saying, expressing outrage, gutter has closed its embassy in Tehran, gutter, of course, being like the

2:08kind of catamide of Tehran. So whatever the Iranians are up to, they seem to be very discombobulated and are adopting a strategy that is backfiring on them unless somebody can tell me otherwise. I mean, add to that that there was an interim supreme leader who was appointed, he even had a Twitter account in English. And apparently he's been eliminated 11 hours into his tenure. Is this confirmed? I mean, it's not been confirmed and the ultimate confirms it, but like all of these, all Israeli media, right, from what I can tell have reported that he has been eliminated. He's been eliminated faster than we can learn his name. Right. Now, we don't know his name if we could look it up right now, but it doesn't matter what his name is because he's dead. So I think this is an important moment because it does create the conditions

3:10under which the supreme leadership of Iran becomes the drummer from spinal tap. It is the job that you die, right, that you die the minute that you get it. And by the way, that's a joke, but it's not really a joke. If you create the circumstances in which the idea is if you pop up to become a leading figure in the regime post, everything that's happened this weekend, and you get, you know, this is a way of saying to everybody, whoa, whoa, whoa, don't try to be the Iatola now. Don't try to be the supreme leader now. Don't try to be the head of the the IRG see now. Don't try to be the head of anything. Don't pop your head up from outside of your rabbit hole because you're going to get killed. That is a very important step on the way to making sure that the regime cannot reconstitute itself under these circumstances. I have to check that way way way way back. I think it was during the intifada. This is a funny sentence, but way way

4:13back during the intifada when the daily show was funny. They had the sketch where, you know, John Stewart was at the desk and it was probably Stephen Colbert out in the field. I don't remember, but you know, it was it was the field was Israel Gaza and you know, he was saying Hamas, Hamas guy has been a lim- Al-Mas leader has been eliminated. You know, and John Stewart says they have any idea who, you know, will take his place and he says, yeah, I'm just getting word it's so-and-so. And then he goes, okay, thank you. And then he interrupts, John, we're just getting word that so-and-so has been killed. Well, is there any indication of who might take his play? And they did this went on for like four or five people, but that's what it reminds you of. It reminds you of a targeted assassination strategy that is unusual to see anywhere else. It was confined to the Arabian public for the most part. It happened in Lebanon with Hezbollah

5:14during the bombing of the headquarters and then the pager operation is that, I mean, literally what happened that they would say they have a new director of, you know, military operations and then three hours later Israel would say we killed them. Or, you know, and six or seven different times and then of course there's the famous deck of cards, the, you know, which we sort of began, I think. That was in Iraq then. Yeah. Right, in the Gulf War, but with Iraq, but the deck of cards of the Hamas leadership and then it happened with the Hamas leadership as well. But I mean, tactically speaking, this mission seems to be A, we are going at these sites, the military sites and the leadership decapitating the leadership. And then what is important is the war doesn't end. So the idea is if you're going to mow down and decapitate the first wave or the first set of leaders of the regime, you wait until the second one comes like a service and then you eliminate them and so on until

6:19either there was no one left or there is a little guy like in a cartoon with a little white flag waving the little white flag out of the hole, which is already indicated. He's gotten little bits of emanation to talk information. Yeah, that new new leadership, possible new leadership is indicating it wants to talk. The all new 2026 Toyota RAV4 is here building on everything drivers know and love about Toyota with a redesigned look and modern tech that makes life behind the wheel easier than ever. The new RAV4 comes standard as a hybrid providing smooth efficient performance for both city streets and longer journeys. Enjoy the legendary reliability Toyota is known for in the all new 2026 RAV4. Learn and shop more at toyota.com Toyota. Let's go places. I have a technical question here. Maybe Eli, you could help me with this a little bit. Yeah,

7:19so there is there has been this contingency plan in place as one would expect among the Iranian leadership in the event of sort of decapitation strike. This council of experts convenes and does something waves the wand over someone and they become that now my question is have the casualty had done to have the have the losses that the Iranian leadership suffered so far been such that the people in the regime who are supposed to constitute and enact this contingency are they also gone. So is it is it sort of catches catch can or is I don't know the answer. There was a revealing interview on Al Jazeera with Iran's foreign minister Erachi who just kind of

8:23casually said that he didn't he kind of acknowledged that there was no command and control at this point with various units. Now I don't know if that applies to everything. There's certainly firing things off but it does seem that there's that you know that we're looking at an implosion. Well, by the way, so this this afternoon a couple of different people have told me that the you know the chatter in the world of people who hear chatter. So this is secondhand chatter is that this afternoon it's not that the tide turned or anything because there isn't really it to the tide all seems to be flowing in one direction anyway but that the sense of the discrimination of the regime and everything that's going on there has in fact started to turn into a kind of degrading route is evident and the the real evidence is a flow down rather than a

9:32speed up in the firing of the ballistic missiles like six or seven hundred were fired off. Yesterday that number is maybe half or a third of what it was and you know the the worry is always that they're holding stuff back and then they're just going to when you least expect it there'll be some second strike that comes out of nowhere and like just you know does immense damage but that seems illogical if you are under relentless bombardment as Iran is the idea that you're the thing that you would do is not throw everything you have at the enemy as you have it just to get them to stop or to push them back a little or something there's no strategy that says it's not like rope a dope like here fire all this stuff for us and we'll just take it and then we'll come back because

10:36we're not limited we have hundreds of chips and planes and you know thousands of military options at our disposal which they must know and so it's not like okay you ran out of your ammunition now we're going to fire at you and you can't do anything about it like you know the Hail Mary play is to is to go with everything at once now and if they're not doing it it may be that they can't well they know they know they can't match that for steps so which is why they're shooting at brain and cutter and anywhere that the US may have personnel and bases or anywhere that they think will you know as they say pressure the US to make it stop but that seems to be their Hail Mary play they're not even they're not even pretending they can go toe-to-toe but they're trying to make it that this is the sort of thing that I think will backfire also because if the US because again

11:38we're not limited if we start believing that Iran has to be leveled it's missiles have to be completely taken out every inch of them for us to be safe in our air bases in the region then that's what we'll do and so the normal reaction would be to hit them harder but this but that is there that seems to be the Hail Mary for whatever it's worth well I mean two points to think about one is they managed today to have a public lots of people in Tehran and probably other cities morning harmony um that does not freak me out I think that there's there's a there's a minority of kind of the brainwashed true believers in the country so I don't even think they necessarily to compel some of those people but certainly the regime wanted to kind of put out a show of public strength so we saw those photographs and then the other which we were talking about

12:38before we went on is we have this incident in our past so there's this developing situation as we're talking in Washington DC on the beltway are there lone wolves that have been activated by Iran or were they here and you know this is the moment when they're going to be activated uh we don't even know if if any of them are connected to it it could just be mentally ill people who have clung to the news and you know justified their wanton violence you know because of that but there is a possibility the Iranians are the leading state sponsor of terror in many ways they were or I would argue they're kind of like the Henry Ford of modern Islamic terror um so maybe maybe that's part of the response to and then the other thing you hear is that US officials are worried about possible cyber attacks on infrastructure we haven't seen that yet but that's another possibility of what we could see in terms of their response so what you mentioned are these

13:44two incidents the for the surprising thing was there was this shooting at a bar that this bar in Austin at two in the morning uh Friday you know Saturday night Sunday morning and to hear suddenly that the authorities are concerned that there might be a terrorist aspect to it which is now very clear because the clear photographic image of the of the of the shooter who is born born in Senegal and a naturalized US citizen he was wearing a shirt that said property of Islam on it somebody interestingly I don't know why I'm laughing it's like embarrassing because it's obviously very evil but you know like somebody dug up an enraged tweet he sent that Laura Lumer uh you know the uh the very the far right wing um uh suddenly neo passionate Zionist after having

14:47converted to Christianity five or six years ago anyway he sent like this enraged tweet at her which suggests a an ideological framework to his actions so there's a thing about is he just a mentally ill guy is he just a low wolf who went and shooting somewhere or have they have they pre-position or pre pre-planted weird terrorist actors around America yeah having had no professional experience in you know counterterrorism this really this profile doesn't so for whatever we know of it doesn't strike me at all as an activated Iranian cell member um you wouldn't be tweeting Laura Lumer yeah I don't think unless the tweet at Laura Lumer is what got him recruited but I mean you know what I'm saying and it would be a purview right and it would also be a weird like what's the purpose of that you know what do you it's not it's it's not a big enough event

15:52and if he doesn't leave a manifesto reason in their screaming you know this is this is to avenge the murder of the Ayatollah I don't know what purpose it serves uh I mean it's just yeah it's just going to say it's interesting to because we get to the to the car crash because 90% of the time when we get a confirmed Islamist terrorist attack in this country and authorities say it's a lone wolf I'm suspicious and and sometimes I'm I'm sort of proven uh correct in my suspicion it's not really a lone wolf there seems to have been something murky some traveling plans some associates some something um and I have to say this time I it's almost the opposite um where I feel as if the way the the law enforcement described the the Austin shooter indications of a nexus to

17:00terrorism would make one think that he's involved in a sort of web um and uh look I know nothing but as I said nothing about it really strikes me as as anything other than a uh uh uh uh uh uh actual lone wolf right down to the shirt down to the location down to the time yes a thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last and that's where quince shines premium fabrics considered to design and everyday essentials that feel effort list to wear and dependable even as the seasons change like where cashmere sweaters shorts sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos linen bottoms and shorts tease in 100% pima cotton and european jersey linen these are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe actually work season to season and you know quince works directly with top factories cuts out the middleman you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores just quality clothing so that I think is the key as you know I'm

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20:19a lone wolf because you look at see go that really this is what you got like this is your good got you sent a guy into a into a bar in Austin yeah that's that and I've already had 500 incidents like this in the next week then I would say other options but yeah okay Ron also has planned attacks on us soil that we sort of know their style a bit already we know that they tried to assassinate the Saudi official in Washington DC in a cafe right we know that we know that through Hezbollah they do drugs muggling and and things like that we have a we have a sort of picture at least of what Iranians we know they tried to assassinate maseo lineage ad as they've done you know in the in German and French cafes for for you know for a long time assassinating dissidents or or Iranians that annoy them so we've had a couple of attacks that we've really actually investigated you know gotten all the facts out there and said here is what the Islamic Republic of Iran was quite literally planning to do and this this isn't the sort of thing that they would do and also if

21:22they had something it would it would this wouldn't be the top like this wouldn't be the thing that happens first I don't I can't know what's in their heads but they have a certain style when they try to pull off attacks on us soil and it doesn't fit it but it is something we should be looking for because they have tried attacks on us soil well what they don't know what those look like and those have you know global implications as it as you know as concerns the Saudis what they don't have and why we can look for a different signature is they don't they aren't al-Qaeda they don't have the we're going to send 20 people to do something colossal and gigantic they look to assassinate individual there and obviously they haven't had a lot of success on us soil because they tried to kill John Bolton they tried they targeted Brian Hook they targeted Trump you know they they've done this and they haven't they haven't from what we can tell you know unless the guy in but we're Pennsylvania whom we who is whose motivation still remain completely opaque and bizarrely

22:30undefinable you know unless he was somehow an Iranian asset they they really you know this isn't they're great success they've had better success in Europe and elsewhere and that's something by the way to watch in the next couple of days if they do thing because obviously there are ideas we can't really get to the Americans and we're doing what we can to get to the Israelis but that's why we're trying to scare everybody else into telling us to say uncle then there's this other story which is interesting that the Saudis seem to be getting it on that there seems to be a reason that the Saudis want to let it be known that Muhammad bin Salman the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was a key actor in the past week in being like the Margaret Thatcher of this operation like he's the one who was calling Trump saying don't go wobbly you got to go and hit hit Iran and hit Iran hard it's not

23:31just Netanyahu which is striking because we've been hearing for you know six months that the Saudis were starting to play footsie with the Islamic Republic and we're maybe trying to find a different way to deal with their own geopolitical problems relating to this Shia Sunni fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran this historical fight and that you know we were all alarmed by that right oh my god like the are the Saudis giving up and trying to make a separate piece with Iran apparently no that's not that is not what happened and they really did want to let it be known and the administration is happy to let it be known that it's not just Israel that is involved in the planning here that that that that that that Trump was getting pushed or urged to to you know take the final step by by the kingdom of Saudi Arabia well the Saudis are involved right now in negotiations over their

24:34own nuclear program with the US so it's probably you know I would I would look there for first clues well there's another reason why it's very important and that is that the line from the woke right the Tucker Carlson side of Maga has been this is Israel's war and that this is the last chance they're gonna have with it a president who would allow you know the Jewish state to pressure them into a war like this and so they have to take advantage of it and he has been saying that explicitly Megan Kelly is saying that and that is the line you're gonna hear from the um you know the the Maga isolationists um which is awful and not true um but if if it looks like uh Mohammed bin Salman was and played the Margaret Thatcher role uh it puts the lie to that I mean by the way it was a lie to begin with because it's ridiculous to think that Donald Trump was going to be pressured

25:38by anybody um but then but but it further kind of collapses like they're narrative that they were putting out which is that all right they're gonna do the war and uh if it goes badly it's uh let's blame the Jews and and that's a real thing I mean I think they're immune to facts and empirical reality and logic at this point so they're gonna probably say it anyway um though you know hopefully uh you know some of this will will will maybe contain it I guess you know to their information ghetto so there there are two other points to be made here one that I would that uh goes to the actual fighting and this thing I've heard that you know the tide turned today has to do with the Iranian Second Strike capability as Jonathan Schanzer said on yesterday's emergency podcast the thing to fear are the Iranians have 4,000 or so ballistic missiles

26:43of different forms some of them are on mobile launcher some of them are on you know in ground or in tunnels or whatever and um it's a double-edged sword because obviously we don't want the Iranians to be firing off ballistic missiles and hitting Israel one just hit Jerusalem you know this there's this uh hit in Bayt Shamish that that killed uh you know nine people in wounded 40 like you don't want that but every time they fire we know where the launcher is that was used to fire and we or these Israelis can go and take out that launcher and if those launchers are destroyed in the hundreds to thousands the the the the Iranians lose all capability that's it that's all they got they don't have planes we took out their Air Force we are in the process of taking out their navy uh Trump said

27:46that we have I think blown up nine ships or something like that took out a submarine um they do so we're huh they have drones they have drones okay so right they have drones but but the but the but their main capability is they do have a navy and they do have these missiles so they are in an interesting box because what they need to do is fire the missiles if they're gonna fight but if they fire the missiles and they have a stationary launcher and we can take out that launcher then they got no way to fire the next missile and it's just sitting there on the ground and not only that but we also know where that tunnel is or where they've been hiding them and then we can go and drop a bunker buster and blow up that tunnel so the more they respond the easier it is for us in Israel to take out their capabilities that's the that's the conundrum that even they

28:48may even be facing and we don't even know if they as as I guess you know I say you know they that they're they can get in touch with you know the guy who's in the mountain over there and say okay you know fire at Cyprus because their phones may not be working the command control communications was taken out Israel is so in control or whoever is so in control that they just they took over the Iranian state TV airwaves and broadcast our broadcasting a speech by BB telling them you know to stand you know to stand tall and be ready to take over their government Israel is so confident that it's set out a message a couple of hours ago to the Iranian people saying don't rise up yet because it's too dangerous in the streets we're still going at these targets will let you know when it's safe for you to come out and start taking over the government which is a a pretty amazing

29:48just think about it it's it's the smart it's the smart home you know appliance is like the refrigerator is going to tell you when it's time to go out okay and the refrigerator just says go topple the regime that's when you go right but it but it's another element of this that I think is perfect kind of for the commentary podcast to just get into here we're watching in some it feels like the culmination of two and a half years of Israeli military brilliance and heroism and um it's remarkable and of course I'm very proud as a Jew but in another way it stands in such sharp relief to our diaspora community in America that just ran this faqqaq to add on the Super Bowl about the kid who gets called a dirty Jew and a black friend tells him to walk up and it's it's uh

30:51it's a really interesting moment in some ways because the early relationship between American Jews and Israel was that you know we lobbied for them we gave the money we bought the Israel bonds we were using our community's success to help this plucky against all odds country that you know that had a barely functioning economy and was attacked by all its neighbors and they really needed us and now it feels like we're the little brother if that makes sense and there is a kind of disconnect and I wonder if whether some of that has I think for us and the commentary community we are very proud of Israel obviously and we're all Zionists but I wonder if that can kind of form and weirdly a kind of resentment among other diaspora Jews when they see that all this incredible success from Israel and that's why so many of the younger Jews might be susceptible to these

31:53labels about Israel's conduct and the Gaza war and so forth and and the various you know propaganda and BS from Peter Bidart look I'm like you I have too many logins I have too many passwords if I want to shop for something at a store I've already used and I go there and I know I have a login and it's going to store all my information that I can't remember that I use this email or did I use that email did I use this name that I use or do I use another and then of course I have no idea what the password is and you know what makes it easier what makes it work is went at the top you see a purple button right there of the payment options and that button makes everything easier for you no need to get your wallet out no need to spend time logging in you just complete your checkout with the tap of one button truly one of the best features in the calc world of online shopping and that is a Shopify purple button Shopify of course the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e-commerce in the US it's an amazing

32:53service and you know if you use it not only to buy but you use it as a way of doing e-commerce like commentary does it accelerates your efficiency whether you're uploading new products or trying to improve existing ones it helps you get the word out and it's a commerce expert with world class expertise and everything for managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond so don't have your card abandoned because you don't know how to log in see how you as a seller can make more sales go caching with Shopify and their purple shop pay button sign up for your one dollar per month trial today at shopify.com slash commentary go to shopify.com slash commentary that shopify.com slash commentary I mean that's a very interesting observation I think what it gives the lie to is a kind of world view that is more liberal than it is

33:56American liberal Jewish that that martial responses are self-defeating and that the world is a web of interwoven relationships and that what's really important is putting yourself together in a mission to better humanity through the use of multiple means of financial logistical moral support for good things and hostility to bad things in this very sentimental one world idea right and there is there is a realized daughter high lies daughter hey Nora hi Nora anyway so it's so it's very I think it's very hard for people who are marinated in this idea to look and see a country that says the only

35:00way for us to move forward is to use our aggressive hostile capabilities that involve the use of deadly force on a massive scale along with the world's most powerful country this is how we can build our future every we've been told as Americans particularly liberal Americans and liberal American Jews since we were little children that this is not the way to go about things you know if you have a bully on the playground you know try to make friends with him you know as opposed to the there's a bully on the ground go punch him in the mouth see and then maybe if you punch him in the mouth maybe he'll leave you alone or he'll have new respect for you right that's not how we that's not how we in in America think or we that we're trained to think I mean that's the most that's the most like the now version of this right but that I think there are a lot of liberal American Jews I mean I don't know what it's a deeper question and I don't know what surveys

36:06to necessarily go to but there are a lot of liberal American Jews that view Israel as kind of a source of embarrassment at a dinner party oh I have to defend you know the the hilltop vigilantes on the west bank the next time you know I'm at some dinner party or something and what we're really seeing is this incredible story of a country I mean it starts on October 7th this horrible attack and then people from all over Israeli system all over the world are volunteering they have too many volunteers this series this this kind of military culture this culture that we're going to defend our country and then let's credit Netanyahu who has the vision to understand that it's not he can't just think of it as a war against Hamas it's a war against the entire ten you know network of proxies that you know are in Iran and this is the last phase of it and then add to that all of these episodes of just spectacular brilliant military brilliance that really feels like magic

37:12when you think about it um and that that is always really and and and of course the partnership with America makes a lot of it possible but America's gaining a lot out of the I mean like the fact that you got two problems you got two problems here so yeah so it's as I say we've been marinated in this idea that you know civilized people and you know from you know come together and try to find common ground whatever okay so there's that and then Israel gives a lie to that which is they tried they tried they kept trying they kept trying and then then then 5,000 people were killed and and raped and injured in a single you know morning on you know in October 2023 and they were like okay that's it goodbye we're done seven seven country seven there are seven organizations our countries that are attacking us we're systematically going to go after everyone and destroy them and it's not just going to be Gaza because Gaza even though Gaza is the Hamas is the one who

38:18attacked us they're all woven together and we are and we we we we know that and then they you they staged this astonishing uh you know victory dominoes toppling all over the place you're saying why is it that they so that gives the lie to the we just need to be nice and everything will be fine and then you have the second point which is that they have to go to a dinner party and people say well Israel is so a green and aggressive and terrible and their mean to the Arabs and all of that and they don't have the vocabulary to say uh you know sometimes uh if someone's mean their mean for a reason and they're not mean they're defending their children and so I understand that you don't think anybody should have a gun and you don't think anybody should be able to defend themselves and we shouldn't have cops and all of that but you know what that's not how the world works they don't know how to say that and then you have the secondary thing now which is of course

39:22every liberal in America hates Donald Trump more than they have hated any figure in my lifetime so the fact that this is a Trump war Trump you know allied with BB and all of that makes it incredibly difficult and there is a further complication for American Jews American liberal Jews at liberal Jews generally and American liberals generally which is that when Israel responded initially to say up to over seventh when it when into Hamah into Gaza there weren't widespread videos of Gossars cheering and thanking Israelis when they took out Hezbollah you didn't see widespread videos of Lebanese cheering and thanking Israelis when they took out Hezbollah leaders in Iran you didn't see it and so on

40:24and it was and and even though during the Iraq war when the U.S. went in there were some Iraqis who actually did celebrate at the start of the war but they were only seen by the journalist who were on the ground they're okay um given that all of the post-October 7th political battle has been done online there is now a flood of videos of versions of Iranians cheering Trump Netanyahu thanking Israel calling this not a mean aggressive act of war but at an answered prayer a liberation and this is a new experience for the Trump hating war hating BB hating liberal Jews

41:28they have to reckon with this I mean I hope they do because this could be all invisible to them we don't know what their algorithms show them I mean it's I hope you're right yeah but and of course there's more to come because if this scenario that Israel laid out tonight which is they're gonna we're still fighting so keep stay safe things are unstable and you know we you know what's going on now is the battle part and you're not involved in it Iranian civilians you can keep you can protect yourselves and then we'll let you know and you can go out in the streets and if they do and they go out in the streets and they say we were happy the regime is over we want you know by the millions that will be undeniable and that's the thing of course the dog that didn't bark in Gaza that that I think was important for the Israeli public that is going to be a twist here because people kept saying where are the where are the gossens celebrating the fact that they've

42:30been liberated from Hamas and believe me Israeli soldiers and troops were wondering the same thing and in Israel this was kind of like the final stake in the heart of the people who hoped against hope for the ability to make peace with the Palestinians that hold on yeah hold on okay there was a moment we know if you go back to like March April May we were seeing lots of videos of regular gossens telling Hamas to leave and then there was the ceasefire and then Hamas started killing so-called collaborators right and that was enough violence to shut everybody up because they're still around during during the war oh sure during the war yeah but but also when they when they

43:31rose up against like when they when they protested against Hamas there was never a like Palestinians and Israelis in Milan or something partying on a balcony together like there was no thank you Israel for doing it there was no resistance in London yeah yeah we've seen in DC right this Iranian and of course the the demented fascinating politics since we're talking about liberals in America because what else are we gonna do um that uh that uh that uh that uh that uh Zora Mamdani um oh that was amazing uh I can't believe that yeah expressed his support for the Iranian community in New York and you know his sorrow that uh you know and understanding that you know they deserve protection from you know the this incredibly unjust and illegitimate attack on their country what do you think the percentage is of Iranians in the United States

44:40who support the overthrow of the Islamic Republic do you think it's 99.2% because that might be low yeah there are people are worried about their families I'm sure there are there are I mean there are 992% and Zora Bammari and that's it that's as far as a and treat a party that as far as I can tell though treat a party in Zora Bammari are the only Iranians publicly who are saying that this is a mistake um and just generally speaking every Iranian in the United States is in the United States because they had to leave Iran or their families had to leave Iran because of the revolution and they are centered in New York and DC and LA and a lot of them are Jews but they're not all Jews and if there's one thing that binds them it is hatred of the Islamic Republic of Iran of a sort that you know like makes the Cuban hatred of Castro look like you know like a like mild mild anger so that they're not and they're not quiet about it I mean they are they're not at

45:46all right and they're cheering and I saw Mamdani's tweet and I was like he's never met a person in his life right no but I mean that of course well he has or you you know he met three persons he's met and he's met and he's got an as a Persian on on staff maybe like he's got the you know right anyway I'm just saying like when you read that and you see that you understand that the the world that that that people like him live in is not the same world that that that we live in and therefore that helps explain a little bit of one very troubling sign so far it's only remember it's only 36-40 hours since all this started but you know that that snap polling is showing very I mean there are a couple of polls that say it's fine and there are a couple polls that say it's good that we took out the Ayatollah but not a lot of public support for the war and and and and these secondary questions like does Trump use force too much is he too quick to

46:51use force and like 56 to 57% of Americans say he does in two different polls that came out this afternoon you know like not that much support 20 to 40% depending on how you calculate it and so the question is I guess this goes to Eli's point go ahead I'm sorry I just want to say this is before something we should get into obviously the tragic news of the the fact of the three U.S. service members have been killed so far in this and as that news becomes more widely known settles in and as the enemies of this operation use that as a cudgel this that the support could even get low I know but I mean I look three three American servicemen have died

47:57in the first you know 48 hours of a conflict granted we are not used to Americans but by the way bizarrely you know look in the first Gulf War in 1990 100 Americans died in in in the single most lopsided battlefield victory in the history of mankind you know it was like adjunct court times at times a billion but you know if we're starting to get to the point at which the American people are going to say that the the the the tragic loss of three servicemen in the Middle East means that the mission is morally illegitimate then we have a lot worse problems in this country and its future than I even imagine that we have I think we are at that point and we do have those problems I mean this is what this is why you don't talk me down I'm your man this is why

48:58I'm with John on this by the way I let me just make this one that this is why talks of boots on the ground has been anathema for years now because the idea is if one American life is going to and I understand it is going to be put in jeopardy or lost for a war that I'm not clear or necessary clear on my support of its aims then a travesty has taken place here and that is the tide that we are fighting against here I think that is especially because you've got Trump who has been you know railing against forever wars and boots on the ground and guaranteeing no boots on the ground and no boots on the ground no boots on the no occupation and no drawn out so I think I think that is where we are yeah all right so just a couple points on that

50:03George W. Bush in 2000 campaigned on the idea and Condi Rice said it at the convention America will not be the world's 9-1-1 which you know has a weird number a weird number in light of what happened we have used yeah and then he comes up he he becomes the most interventionist president you know since you know you could argue the 60s and the other point to make is that it's too soon to tell we're in the middle of this right now so if there are more and it's single digits but you know the result is the civil war in Iran and we don't know where the loose nukes nuclear material is and it becomes this huge problem yeah then this will look as another intervention failure but if Trump can pull it off and Israel can pull it off that you manage to affect a decent transition to something better than what we have now which

51:05is the worst um and you see those scenes of Iranians in jubilation in the streets and there is no more nuclear program there is no missile program for Iran and we did it without boots on the ground then that is a new paradigm for American national security yes and the capabilities that we have now to do that right we have it we have the technological capabilities to take this and branch it out and make this the the you know the central idea of a grand strategy we didn't have the ability necessarily to do it before with people sitting so far from the battlefield but we have this ability to you know to go into places and take these precision sort of acts and actions because but because we have the bases like the you know the woke right and the people and isolationists they complain you know why are we still here why are we still there uh you know all these years after world war two and stuff like that because it they're not to drop off

52:08soldiers but they are to be these bases from which we can fly jets and drones and and and missiles and things like that but also you know they were able to take the time in the past month or whatever it's been a few weeks to move um missile defense into position some missile defense it is just a missile defense you know in around the region where the US has its you know has its own has its own uh bases and stuff like that so that's that's a capability now that we can do you know wider and more often I just want to add something to my point I'm not I'm not saying that the uh that this public sentiment about combat deaths and and um boots on the ground is healthy or right or productive um and and and to that point I want to note that the people um who are going to make the the who you're going to try to turn this into a scandal are undoubtedly the same people who say it's good that we got out of

53:12um Afghanistan because of for it because it was a forever war and reasons and 13 US service members were killed in that withdrawal itself yeah yeah look I think what you lay out and this is crucially important trump spoke and said today and said he looks at this as a four week operation so he he's not necessarily putting a time limit on it but at least he's not saying we'll be out by Thursday right and the reason I say at least is not that I want this to continue forever but particularly given the fact that he does not yet have the full support of the American people or even the partial support of the American all this he has made a huge gamble on this mission and um he needs to see a

54:14through like he he needs to not preemptively stop it or take some weird off ramp he needs to get the result that will indicate what we are talking about here that the regime has fallen that the path forward is a better path that that the pro-American sentiment that we have been hearing for two generations is deep inside the hearts of the of what constitutes the Iranian middle class that they are activated and that they are ready and willing to work with the United States to work with contractors who will help them rebuild this is something that Johnson Shanzor talked about again on yesterday's podcast that there will be a lot of work to be done after you know clean up

55:15and reconstruction of infrastructure and all of that and if he can say we did this everything is on the right path tell me what go ahead tell me what I did wrong tell me what I did wrong what what what what what bad happened here and he that every time we have been close in the last 30 years to achieving that victory as Charlie Wilson said we f up the endgame we ended too soon we don't we don't get the final result that we need to have and that Charlie Wilson said that about Afghanistan about the about the you know this sort of the everything that happened that then led up to the to 9-11 and you know we let after the Gulf War George Bush listen to George HW Bush

56:17listen to Colin Powell and ended the war with not only with Saddam and power but allowing him to fly his helicopters around the south so that so that the Kurdish uprising could be so that he could slaughter the Kurds and you know and we we declared mission accomplished way too early in Iraq in 2003 and put our faith in an election strategy that was clearly too too green to achieve the result that we wanted so he looking at all of the dumb mistakes having decided that the forever that the the problem isn't that Americans fight wars but that he wasn't the guy in charge of America when it fought the wars needs to take a lesson from where things went wrong and do what Israel basically has done here in the last two and a half years and crush the enemy so that the enemy stays crushed

57:18and so that the enemy acknowledges that the enemy is crushed which is the World War II analogy right it's that right we needed the Nazis and the Japanese to know that they were dead and that there was no coming back and that they had we had to break their spirits and crush their hopes and their ambitions and there's one more thing where it may be worth mentioning along that point is that usually anywhere there's an insurgency it's a fun it's funded by Iran right so if Iran's on this thing we're not taking it out or on yeah well you know presumably affect the the ability of you know that's one of the things I'm worried about which is that they have guns and if they decide to go underground and head to the hills they will have a great advantage in an insurgency because there won't be boots on the ground I made it I agree by the way we shouldn't have boots on the ground because they're a magnet for the other jihadists and because we don't want our guys to be manning

58:23checkpoints and training police and having a repeat of what it and Trump is wise to avoid that so it is a huge gamble but I also think that there's some there's reason to be optimistic I have to believe in the the Mossad and the CIA have something you know planned for the day after I hope they do so we'll see and and that's that's that's the big thing but if you can pull this off I think it's it's it's enormous for us for the region uh in terms of you know Seth makes a really important point as as I reflect on what he said about the Iranians and the insurgencies so they're so the the the the counter effort against the United States in Iraq was was too sided right there were sort of two fronts there was the the the the the the Sunni government she is

59:28supporting Iranians where we're coordinating both Sunni and she yeah right it was coming from Syria to right right so the Iranians not there for themselves in other words like there's no external organizing principle that they can that they can use to sort of like interfere with their own country they they will their their leadership and the people who know how to do what they know how to do will have been crushed which then starts raising questions about what you do with the IRGC with 125,000 people in the IRGC do you give them amnesty do you know remember the United States made what people now think to have been a terrible strategic blunder in firing the Iraqi army right like like basically letting the Iraqi instead of paying them off or trying to transition them into some other force that that they all they all took their guns and went they had nothing left and all that so I don't know how how all of that that goes but if

1:00:35a lot of this depends on the idea that you know Iran has proved itself over the last two years to be a much more much more of a paper tiger than we ever expected that they would be I don't think we anticipate or the Israelis anticipated the ease with which the Israeli and American operations against Iran would go from after October 7th like they just they didn't know the Iraqis both you know in in the 90s and then the early 2000s were only 10 or 15 years divorced from the eight-year war that they had fought against Iran which they had basically won so they were a seasoned military well but they they were they put up no resistance from the initial invasion no but it was it was the insurgency that they that the bathists and the every dirtbag in the region joining which you talking about now I'm talking about the Iran Iraq war yeah I'm saying Iraq when we went into Iraq yeah I'm talking about

1:01:39that oh okay I thought you were talking about that no no I'm saying Iran when Iraq right now but when Iraq when we went into Iraq in 2003 right and and we obviously overwhelmed the I mean we won the war in six weeks or three weeks or something like that but that was still an active military that had been involved in military activity constantly for 20 years the Iranians have not been an act of military for 20 years they they they they fought around in in Iraq and do stuff like that but they haven't they're not seasoned and trained and like they're they just weren't as good as we thought they were well I would say a little differently their main Iranian military was their revolutionary guard corps and their goods force that wasn't a regular kind of insurgency building operation that

1:02:40involved in terrorism and the IRGC has become the kind of mafia of the state they own I don't know some very large percentage of the economy at this point yeah um and they were always like the A team right um and well they and then you know the assumption was that they would have a competent air defense system and everything like that the Israelis overwhelmed it and I just I think you're right in the sense that they just never imagined they would be invaded or they would never be imagined they would be attacked like this but they're purpose their purpose was of course to quell domestic discontent well no the IRGC's purpose was to spread the Islamic revolution and then the other the boss EG's and the M.O.I. and Eastern intelligence service was but yes there were there were several layers of all these regime yeah security forces right um it's interesting I don't mean to be polyanish I'm saying as we don't know the the the circumstances here suggest

1:03:42that Trump can score and BB or what it or it is real whatever can score a kind of new kind of victory here right and and that will require the will to sustain and to not get thrown off track and I think Trump it benefits a little bit from this weird uh Mamdani you know this this kind of bizarre tone deafness about how Americans and array whatever think about this on the one hand on the other this this idea that the Democrats seem fixated on because they're jokes about it and now they're tweets about it and there was a thing on SNL about it that Trump did this to distract from the Epstein files right now if that's the level of attack that liberals and leftists and like lead actually want to sustain if that's where their minds go

1:04:43he really actually then comes out as the more serious person with more you know doing something that's purposeful and serious and you know I you know I know it's like it's like catnip for them they can't resist it they can't they they they just can't avoid it um but the fact that I think by the way is that the regime accounts on social media have adopted the line that it's a distraction about Epstein calling it operation Epstein fury yeah which is like I mean you know welcome to the 21st century in social media but it's like that's kind of interesting too but I I mean that used to be the kind of thing that would make a Democrat feel a little uncomfortable right yeah like well it's not great that our attack at is being repurposed by our mortal enemy in the middle of war but I mean who knows at this point I mean I also think it's interesting that I kind of going back to the casualties thing right I mean it's still I mean to there's it's

1:05:45disgusting in my view to say that you know we launched a war but like Israel and America killed those servicemen because they put them in harm's way which is a line we're already hearing from like Marjorie Jellie Green and Tucker but there is at a certain point like these people have you know all they they they're they're they're they they they Tucker gave this speech in December we're the America first wing of MAGA and they're all about America first America first America first America first careful buddy watch it because you're going to start sounding like you're kind of Iran first if you're going to blame their violence on us and I just think at a certain point they're going to be very vulnerable to that kind of thing it's not they're they've had a you know he's had a pretty smooth ride up to now and then the other big question is he called this war disgusting how many ticks away from Tucker just attacking Trump and if he does that then that opens up

1:06:49wonderful space with JD Vance JD Vance can't stay with Tucker if he's attacking Trump right JD Vance can stay with Tucker if he's attacking Jews yeah he's attacking after Republicans that's fine but if he goes after Trump he's got to make a choice right and and at that point you know does Tucker kind of get sent to Elba and you know okay fine you'll have a very popular podcast just like Alex Jones did conspiracy theorists and kooks and nuts will tune in but you will never have a home and they were probably gonna party again you know Baruch Hashem we can hope well that's something very interesting is happening with JD Vance here I think we know that Nick Fuentes hated JD Vance and said horrible things about his wife and his kids and and him but Vance's gamble was in my mind I can still not lose the Fuentes contingent more largely speaking and with this war they are

1:07:58they they are out there talking about how he has failed them how he is was always a closet need neocon or never cared about anything and anyone who thought otherwise got suckered in so he's getting the treatment that they all do it's the no honor among thieves no honor among groipers or right anti semis he's getting the full treatment now for all his footsie it's it's it's it's falling apart because of this involvement because I mean it's worse than that yeah as you would put it for Nick Fuentes and for Vance playing footsie with him because Nick Fuentes this morning said everybody who's listening to me needs to vote for the Democrats that is the thing you cannot say in Donald Trump's ear that is for what it's what he said in 2024 too okay well this is where Donald Trump will sit but right now as he's looking in 2026 and everything like that I mean he

1:08:59will he will send a bunker buster to drop on Nick Fuentes's head if Fuentes goes on like this and he will be greeted as a lot of fair that's not a that's not a fair fight for Nick Fuentes so you know it's striking my my sister who was on yesterday and you know like they're I talked to her all day and she's like you know there's another siren and going in the shelter I'm out of the shelter I'm gotta go go back into the shelter I'm in I'm out I'm out I'm in I'm in you know there's a attack on Bayt Chemesh there a building is blown up in Tel Aviv there's an attack in Jerusalem again 100% of people in Israel I maybe not 100% but you know in a norm like the country is going in and out of shelters under ballistic missile attack from Iran cheerful and happy and thrilled with the future you have the political system you have bebis two chief rivals

1:10:00for possible premiership in you know in later this year backing this effort saying we have no you know we are not divide this is an existential threat that we are dealing with in Israel that will make our life better the the this nation of purpose knows what it's about it's willing to go into the shelters it's better than it was going to the shelters for the Gaza war as of course there it was you know a war for survival to destroy this enemy you know that it done this terrible thing so every time you went into the shelters you were sort of reminded that you were there the hostages were in we're we're in Gaza and you know it's like grim purpose right this is something else going on here this is the fulfillment of a of an understanding in Israel two to four decades in length that says and we will never be safe with this regime in in

1:11:03terran and we do not have the means or the ability to take it down and the main continuing issue two issues of the last 25 years in Israel have been of course like how to deal with policy and Hamas terrorism and that and then how to deal with Iran beginning with offmending a job starting to announce when he became president in 2005 that the goal of the regime was the destruction of Israel and saying that Israel would not exist for very much longer that is what he said the civilian president the one who was elected that too late right him so and that's why by the way that's why I wanted to end on this it is really meaningful and important that offmending a job was killed today or yesterday even though he has not been president for what 12 years something like that right because we have long memories we Jews and he made it clear that he

1:12:06was the vanguard of the idea that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth and we have long memories and he's dead and let's see who does it let's see who does it next and thinks that it's something that you can play in toy with that you're a country you're going to develop a nuclear weapon and you're going to take Israel out because even after you leave power even when you're living as a weird academic former president even though you were you were arrested months ago for possibly planning a coup right you're not safe the the one weird thing about it is that like the revolution has turned on so many of its own that inside of you know Iranian politics for what it was Aquedina shot was somebody who was calling for significant reform if not you know a new order hence the arrest for the coup and everything like that now that doesn't do I think he

1:13:09changed his stripes when it came to his hatred of Jews and denial of the Holocaust I don't but I'm just noting that um it's interesting because the decision is not just knock off the top 10 people it's going pretty deep which is I'm just saying no I mean at this point I think the only people left at the top command are Mossad probably but I am just saying let the world know yeah that we have a long memory and let every I mean that is why this is meaningful I mean why we took out remember during the course of the last you know in the past year so we took out you know one of the one of the planners of the marine barracks bombing in 83 we and you know this and this people who I've done terrible things decades ago the Iatola who the new Iatola the second the second spinal tap drummer planned the Argentina I mean the the

1:14:17killing of the 180 Jews in Argentina in 1994 so we have a long memory don't f with us that's Israel is now in a position to say we you know we take care of family business right I mean it's you know the Munich this started with the idea that the Munich terrorists all needed to be eliminated and they would it will take as long as it was necessary to eliminate them and that now having that you're just a member of black September doesn't you can be the head of an international criminal organization you can be a former president of the country and no longer be in power and we are not going to forget what you did and I this is a very serious thing about Aquaman Dinejad because I was reflecting on the fact that we had not been talking about the need to deal with the Iranian nuclear program until Aquaman Dinejad started marching around going we're going to get a nuclear

1:15:18bomb and destroy Israel right which shifted us into this 20 year you know like 20 year problem that has now reached its resolution and so you know it's also the end of it's it's it's it's you know for BB it's is the culmination of his 30 year his own sort of 30 year quest this is you know he's he's got this he said 40 you know he said this is what my public life has been aiming toward for 40 years and remember 42 years ago in Lebanon in the barracks the Iranian front group Hezbollah killed 240 to Marines and the American response then was to pull out of Lebanon and the American response today is to destroy regimes what's the better response

1:16:23I mean granted there are many people listening or maybe not listening who would think that the better response isn't to go and destroy the regime but they're wrong and we're right and we're going to end here so yeah you like don't start none won't be none there you go you like thank you thank you we'll be back tomorrow and every day until we have to stop for Abe and Seth I'm John but or it's keep the camel burning keep the camel burning