El Niño Explained: Climate, Forecasts, and Uncertainty

Episode Description

El Niño has returned, and forecasters around the world are watching closely.

In this episode, Dr. David Legates explains what El Niño is, why the tropical Pacific Ocean is warming, and what scientists expect as the 2026 event continues to develop. He explores how El Niño influences weather patterns around the globe, from rainfall in the southern United States to hurricane activity in the Atlantic and drought risks in Australia.

Drawing on decades of climatological research, Dr. Legates also examines the limits of seasonal forecasting. While El Niño can shift the odds of certain weather patterns, it does not guarantee specific outcomes. Every event is different, and Earth's climate is shaped by a complex interaction of oceanic and atmospheric processes that extend far beyond a single climate pattern.

Join Dr. David Legates for an accessible look at one of Earth's most influential climate phenomena and discover what the developing 2026 El Niño may—and may not—have in store.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0252-6

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/07/22/super-el-nino-atlantic-la-nina-hurricane-weather-forecast/91005872007/

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