Daily Episode 235 - +1.5C is Dead

0:00Hey, Cory here. We've had an influx of new listeners, and so I just want to make sure that if you are new to the podcast, you don't just jump in and start listening to these daily episodes which we've been doing. Please go back and listen to the first at least eight episodes. So you have an idea of what collapses, what it is that Cory is talking about. Also if you've been with us for a while and you're enjoying the content, please join us on Patreon. We would love to see you there. There's a link, as always, in the description. Hi, it's Brooke DeVard, host of Naked Beauty, and I want to talk about how I upgrade my hosting experience. There's a moment just before guests arrive when my home stops feeling like a series of rooms and it becomes an atmosphere. The light settles, the air shifts, and then the beautiful scent of Jasmine, rose and fig, filled the air. It feels warm and considered. That's what Pura does. It turns fragrance into environment. A collection of beautiful, clean fragrances all controlled from your phone. Choose your sense of place at Pura.com. A relaxing way can feel like a roller coaster, full of ups, downs, and being thrown for

1:03loops, like when someone brings donuts into the office, or your kids' dino nuggets start giving you that look again. That's why there's noom. They combine GLP ones to quiet the food noise, with healthy habits that help you keep it quiet, even if you get off the meds. Their program is designed to make weight loss a smooth ride, helping you understand what drives you. So you can build better habits to not just lose weight, but keep it off. NUME. LOSE FOR KEEPS. Get started at nume.com. Not all customers will clinically qualify for medications. Individual results may vary. Hi, this is Mark Bittman from the podcast, Food With Mark Bittman. Have you ever considered how the smallest details can create real emotion? Lexus does. At Lexus, master craftsmen called Takumi are involved not just in physical craftsmanship, but in sensory details. Things like how a door closes, the click of a switch, the acoustic feedback of controls. Because a car that doesn't make you feel something is a car that stops short of amazing.

2:07Experience amazing at your Lexus dealer. I don't have an email list, those types of things. And so I don't get a lot of interaction with listeners. And so it's easy to forget or to just be disconnected from the impact if any the podcast is having on people. So it was great to see some of the comments there and people talking about some of the impact just got me a get me getting motivated this morning to keep doing it. So to whoever posted that, thank you. The podcast experienced a lot of organic growth in the very beginning, right?

3:10All the way back in 2020, six years ago now, just through organic sharing, people spreading the word, I didn't do any marketing of the podcast other than posting it to the subreddit every once in a while. And I think the educational nature of the main sort of thesis around why collapse is inevitable was the reason for that. And so these days, the podcast is more news based right that the daily format is just different. And so it doesn't get quite that same organic share ability. So anyway, it was refreshing to see that. And if you are ever so inclined to help someone learn about the ideas of collapse, they're showing interest in understanding what's going on in the world as always recommended to share this with them. Have them go back and listen to the very beginning, the first eight episodes at the very least starting from there. All right, jumping in, this is somewhat of a big milestone. You might say a UN report this week came out essentially saying the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is dead. It took them longer than it should have to admit this, but to their credit sooner than

4:15I expected because they use a decadal averaging mechanism, right? They to say we've hit 1.5 degrees Celsius, they look over an entire decade worth of data. And the average temperature for that decade needs to hit 1.5 and we're not there yet. So up to this point, the sort of mainstream idea has been we can still avoid 1.5. We can still do this together. We can pull together and make this work. There's still time that is no longer the case. They are saying 1.5 is dead and we will likely hit at least 1.8. Still in my opinion, obviously is is woefully underestimating what where we will actually land the trajectory we're actually on, but at least they are admitting that 1.5 is no longer possible. This is from the Guardian. This is just one article talking about the report that came out and so we will talk about that report, but through the narrative written here. So it says global heating will hit at least 1.8 C UN warns and there are no good outcomes.

5:18But scientists say the world could get back to 1.5 C through deep, rapid emission cuts and removing carbon from the atmosphere. So that's sort of the new narrative and I've seen this posted around a few times. They're calling it overshoot in which they're saying, well, we're going to overshoot 1.5. But now the new goal is to get back down below 1.5 by the end of the century. Now I think that is the next best goal if we admit that 1.5 has already passed, then the next best thing we can do is try to get back down below 1.5 C as quickly as possible. Is it possible? Well, that's a whole other question, right? And this report does try to answer that and it talks about the various ways that we could accomplish it. The main concerning thing here is the timescale and the effort needed to make this happen. I am not one to say that it is impossible. I obviously agree with the UN that it's impossible that we limit to below 1.5, but it could very well be that through collapse itself emissions are reduced a massive amount.

6:20That's not what they are claiming here. They're talking about doing it through geoengineering or carbon capture or continuing to work towards net zero and those types of things. My concern, however, is that the models and whether or not, you know, I don't know which models they used for this we need to do a little bit deeper research are perhaps not adequately taking into account tipping points, feedback loops that are already underway that may well, even if we reduced our emissions, even if we did carbon capture those feedback loops, if already started, those tipping points, if already hit may guarantee essentially a certain amount of overshoot that will either take a very, very long time to come back from or so long in human time scales that it may not really be rational to consider for our current civilization. Let's read some of this article. It says global heating will reach at least 1.8 c under even the most optimistic future. Well beyond the Paris agreement goal of 1.5, according to a UN report that warns every fraction of temperature rise intensifies destructive extreme weather, glacier melt, ecosystem

7:25loss and island and coastal city submersion. The report by the Nairobi based UN Environment Program confirmed overshooting the 1.5 c goal inscribed in the landmark Paris agreement of 2015 was now unavoidable and despite some progress in addressing the human cause climate crisis driven by burning fossil fuels likely in the next few years. It said there are no good outcomes above 1.5 c. Heading up to 3 c above pre-industrial levels could lead to glaciers losing more than the quarter of their mass by 2100, raising sea levels by up to 13 centimeters, global food production could decline by up to 14% by 2050 if there are not effective strategies to adapt. Human health, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructures and economies could all be severely damaged. Some losses would be irreversible. Many communities may have to relocate or change their livelihoods. The report said the best hope for humanity to limit damage was to adopt an overshoot, peak and decline pathway that required immediate and sustained greenhouse gas emission cuts combined

8:26with steps to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It described the goal of net zero emissions increasingly politically contentious in some countries as an essential milestone that cannot be skipped and stressed carbon dioxide removal through steps such as establishing vast new forests must occur alongside not as an alternative to deep cuts in fossil pollution. And I have to correct myself. I misspoke earlier stating that geoengineering was part of that conversation. Geoengineering is not something that they have recommended here as necessary, but of course it will continue to be a part of the overall conversation. Crucially the authors of the report titled limiting overshoot said the average global temperature could be returned to 1.5c this century only if heating stayed below about 1.8. They warned nature's capacity to store carbon was uncertain and would shrink the more the planet heats. So it's interesting they're saying here that we are likely to hit 1.8, but if we can limit it to 1.8 or below 1.8 that we could then possibly return to 1.5c this century,

9:26the benchmark has moved again. This should be no surprise to any of us. We've always known on this podcast that that benchmark was unrealistic perhaps even six years ago when this podcast started. But to now suddenly say the best case scenario is that we breach 1.5 and over the course of the next 70 years work really hard to get back down to that 1.5. Meanwhile they're still saying the consequences of breaching 1.5 are catastrophic. There is no good outcome. The UN has basically just rolled over here and said we've hit a point in which there is no good outcome from this. There is no stopping this. The next best thing that we can do is try to bring it back down. And even that they're using language that is similar to the language that was used about the attempts to keep it below 1.5 originally, which is saying it's going to require a ton of work and sacrifice and nations are going to have to pull together and agreements

10:28are going to have to be made and governments are going to have to cooperate. All of which are things that we know have not happened adequately up to this point. And worse, it seems that they're using the more conservative models and the more mainstream conservative line of thinking around how warm things are going to get and how quickly. Climate change is accelerating. Global warming is accelerating. It is not following a previously thought track and emissions are still increasing. This is the topic we're going to talk about later this week, probably tomorrow actually. I saw a request, one that had been left somewhere on a post at some point, somebody asking to touch on the energy transition and renewables. Now that solar is growing as fast as it is and other renewables increasing at the rate they are, the question they asked was for me to revisit the question can renewables save us. So I'm going to touch on that a little bit tomorrow. Obviously, these episodes are 15 minutes. They're not like the old hour long ones that we used to do.

11:28It won't be as complete of an episode as those used to be. But I am going to touch on this topic and this idea, this question then. All right, continue on with the article. The president of Palau, Sauron-Gel-Wips, Jr. this week hosting regional leaders, including Australia's Anthony Albanese for a Pacific Islands forum meeting focused on security and climate. Said the report was a fork in the road moment for the planet. Quote, it is hard to overstate the depth of emotion for those of us living on the front line after having fought so hard to put the 1.5 C limit at the heart of the Paris Agreement. We need to see an urgent and unprecedented increase in political will and investment in a climate safe future. Nobody can read this report and conclude otherwise. The shawl Prasad from Pacific Island students fighting climate change group said the report was terrifying for young people from the Pacific. Quote, the international court of justice has made it clear. Being at 1.5 C is not a choice. It is a legal obligation. We are not asking for your goodwill. We are not begging you.

12:29We are telling you what international law requires of you. End fossil fuel expansion, your corporate profits cannot be allowed to extinguish our future. The UNEP executive director, Eanger Anderson, said the future would bring many unknowns. But that extreme heat waves, such as those that smashed records and exacerbated wildfires and droughts this northern summer, were already proving climate impacts would strike faster, hit harder and last longer. She says, we have to act with urgency and determination. Every fraction of a degree avoided every year by which overshoot is shortened, and every adaptation action taken will save lives. We'll protect ecosystems and reduce economic losses. She told reporters. Hi, it's Brooke DeVard, host of Naked Beauty and I want to talk about how I upgrade my hosting experience. There's a moment just before guests arrive when my home stops feeling like a series of rooms and it becomes an atmosphere. The light settles the air shifts, and then the beautiful scent of Jasmine rose in fig fill the air. It feels warm and considered. That's what Pira does.

13:29It turns fragrance into environment. A collection of beautiful, clean fragrances all controlled from your phone. Choose your sense of place at Pira.com. Losing weight can feel like a roller coaster. Full of ups, downs, and being thrown for loops. Like when someone brings donuts into the office, or your kids dino nuggets start giving you that look again, that's why there's noom. They combine GLP ones to quiet the food noise with healthy habits that help you keep it quiet, even if you get off the meds. Their program is designed to make weight loss a smooth ride, helping you understand what drives you. So you can build better habits to not just lose weight, but keep it off. Noom. Lose for keeps. Get started at noom.com. But all customers will clinically qualify for medications. Individual results may vary. Professor Deborah Roberts, a report author and co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said, a key message was that the rules of the game are now changing.

14:30Existing approaches are no longer fit for purpose. I think for me, that's the clarion call. We now have to reconfigure our climate governance around dealing with an overshoot pathway. He said that meant not just pollution cuts and carbon removal, but bold adaptation to protect infrastructure and livelihoods, help sustain political and social support for reducing emissions and prevent resources being diverted to crisis response. Okay. I want to touch on that for just a little bit. Like I said, it's using language that was sort of used during the Paris Climate Accord. This we all need to pull together. We need to come up with radical ideas and make major sacrifices. Maybe I'm cynical, but I just, I look at the world today. I look at our political institutions. I look at momentum and the direction that it's carrying us. I look at political will. I look at corporatism and capitalism. I look at the decision making of the world's wealthiest who steer the world, who lead the world in the direction that we'll head.

15:32But all of this that they're saying we must do is to keep emissions from breaching 1.8 and being able to bring them down over the course of 50, 60, 70 years back down to 1.5. This is not a worst case scenario. This is the best case scenario they are presenting at this point. In order to hit the best case scenario, the world has to pull together and make massive changes. Not only is there all this momentum in the wrong direction, as far as, again, political will, as far as the desires, the signs that we're seeing, but as collapse progresses, carrying this out becomes even more and more of a challenge. Yes, some of the natural consequences of collapse, if severe enough, might lead to reductions in emissions. But if we hit that point where those reductions in emissions are forced upon us by collapse, we are not going to be worrying too much about what the temperature of the earth is or the rate at which climate change is increasing because society will already be in its freefall.

16:37The economics, the war, the cultural and educational decline, all of the impacts that we would be feeling at that point would be much more imminent and pressing than thinking about what the climate is going to be doing in 30 or 50 years. If collapse continues on a slow trajectory in which things gradually get worse, we are still talking about an increase in emissions overall. Meanwhile, all of these massive pushes and sacrifices that would be required to be made, it will be much more difficult to make them because of the way that catabolic collapse works. If the UN is saying that we have to, as a world, put more resources into fighting climate change in a world in which there are less resources to provide, right? More money needs to be put towards solving this problem, and yet there's less money to go around because it's being hoarded by the wealthy. More money is being used to put out the fires both figuratively and literally that are occurring now. All of the crises that are happening because of the warming that we've already reached,

17:38that's all money and all resources and all attention and time and media attention that are diverted away from actually making the changes necessary and just trying to look at the problem of right now. I think that's a feedback loop that continues and that makes me, again, maybe it's cynical, but it's where much of my doubt comes from is that we will be able to stable a 1.8. I don't even think we'll stable a 1.8 over the next decade over the next 15 years and that perhaps on their decadal averaging methodology. Many of the numbers spoken about, you know, from James Hanson or Bill McGillen and these guys, we're talking about breaching two degrees Celsius, again, using the decade-long average by the 2050s and looking up between two and 2.5 potentially by then. 2050 is just 23 years away at this point and the numbers have stretched so far as to even say the potential for three degrees by the mid to late 2050s. So 1.8, I mean, we could have our first 1.8 year in 2027 next year due to El Nino.

18:45Yes, that doesn't mean that on the long-term average, that's what we've hit, but that is massive. We hit, you know, our first 1.5 degree year just a few years ago with the El Nino in 2023-2024. To think that this next El Nino, they're saying will very likely be above 1.7, possibly above 1.8 and some are saying even the potential for two. Going back to the article, Climate Analytics, a Science and Policy Institute applauded the report for clearly describing the problem, but said it did a poor job of showing us that there is a way out. And I can't help but laugh at that comment because maybe that's because there isn't a way out and they're recognizing that, right? They have called out what needs to be done to stay below 1.8, at least in their opinion of what they believe can be done to stay below 1.8. Despite the momentum, despite what may already be baked in moving forward. Its chief executive Bill Hare, this again, of Climate Analytics, said UNEP had barely mentioned the need to phase out fossil fuels or evidence showing real zero emissions was

19:48possible in many economic sectors by mid-century. The report's authors cited earlier work that found limiting heating to about 1.8 required global emissions to be halved by 2035. So we have to cut emissions in half over the next nine years. And that's not in half from today, that's in half from the earlier work. I don't know the date of when that earlier work was, but because emissions are still growing today. That means we would have to more than have the current emissions. They said existing national policies were projected to lead to at least 2.3 degrees Celsius of heating, but it would still be possible to limit below 2 degrees if countries delivered on net zero emissions commitments by mid-century. Professor Richard Betts from the University of Exeter and UK Met Office and another report author said the flooding catastrophe caused by the collapse of rock and glacial ice in Nepal and China was a demonstration of why the world needed to limit overshoot and come back to 1.5. That specific event obviously is very complicated, but we are committed to glacier loss, he said.

20:48We can stop them getting much worse by reducing emissions and limiting the amount of warming. I'm going to do another article this week. I just decided as I read this on this idea of continuing to advocate for and talk about the benefits of reducing emissions of hitting net zero, of making the changes required. The reason I want to talk about this in its own episode is that I recognize my cynicism on this podcast about whether or not that is going to happen, but I want to get across the idea that that doesn't mean it's not worth trying. It absolutely is worth trying because as one of the authors of the paper here said, every decimal of a degree that we can reduce warming or that we can prevent in future warming can reduce a lot of suffering. There's a lot to this topic around fatalism, around doom orism, tons of questions around sort of the psychology of it, of whether or not it's productive or counterproductive.

21:52I want to touch on that a little bit, perhaps in a bit of a meta conversation later this week. Anyway, you now have heard two of the episodes we're going to do this week. I look forward to those conversations and we'll see you tomorrow. Who says Halloween only lasts one day? With Wayfair, one night of Halloween becomes a whole season at home. From larger than life yard decor and moody lighting to festive accents for every room in the house, Wayfair has what you need to make Halloween feel like magic all in one place. Because the best Halloween memories aren't made in just one night, they're made all season long. And shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. I'm Serena Williams and I'm healthier on row. I've lost 34 pounds in a year with GLP1's diet and exercise. On row, you can access GLP1 options, including the first FDA approved GLP1 pill for weight loss. Go to row.co slash journey to see if you qualify. 14 to 20% average weight loss in one year in non-diabetics with obesity or overweight

22:56with weight-related medical condition versus 2.2% to 3.1% in placebo art. RX only. To stay informed about serious side effects, go to row.co slash safety. Hello, I'm Monica Reinagle, host of the Nutrition Diva podcast. Summer is here and with it, the hot and sticky weather. A morning working in the garden or maybe on the golf course can leave you more depleted than you realize. And plain water isn't always the most efficient way to restore the balance. That's where liquid IV comes in. This science-backed formula is clinically proven to hydrate faster than water alone. Whether you're exercising, playing outside, or simply surviving a summer heatwave, it's an easy way to stay hydrated. Shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquidiv. Hydration that goes wherever life takes you. Hey, Corey here. If you are listening to the back catalog of breaking down collapse, thank you. Those episodes are so vital. They're so important. But I also wanted to let you know that I am now doing daily episodes. Yes, that's right.

23:56Here on the podcast, daily episodes. So if you are enjoying the back catalog, great. Please also feel free to zoom forward to the most recent episodes. Catch us daily. They are quick little episodes. And I think you'll enjoy them. Thanks.