CRYPTO WARNING: Bitcoin Support LOST?

0:00Whoa, hot inflation data has dumped Bitcoin and the rest of the market, feeling the pressure right now is we're approaching that nasty Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and the Clarity Act right around the corner, but did Hunter Biden just put the nail in the coffin when it comes to getting clarity in the United States for cryptocurrency? We're going to discuss all the some more on today's episode. Bitcoin, look and feisty after this data released this morning. Good morning everybody. Let me know in the chat if the sound is working. If it's scratchy, I've been fighting the ghost of the machine all week. Let me know in the chat if the sound is coming over well, but here is the data. Here's what's causing all of the morning chaos. We have August PPI, producer price index inflation on that rose to 5.4% above the expectations only barely though. 5.3% was the expectation we breached by 0.1 and now core PPI inflation rose to 4.6. This is giving inflationary pressures. This is giving the Federal Reserve more juice in the tank

1:04that they can use at this next Federal Reserve meeting to justify and interest rate hike. Crazy, crazy concept. I'm not sold on an interest rate hike happening as of yet. The data is leaning that way. So I'm kind of a man on the island here. Let's see here. So we still sounds bueno. Still it's a mixed back on how the sounds doing. It's very, very interesting. Who else only buys top shout out to that bottom blasters feeling good yesterday with the all coin sector, but we are feeling the pressure today. Now with this information coming out, the inflation data looking spicy. We got Bitcoin pulling back to a very, very key support level. It hit it early this morning at around $76,800. I was talking about this trend line in this kind of ascending channel that we've been in for some time since we breached above 75k. I did act on this just in a short term with a small bag. I got a little side bag. I'm running up to a in instead of buying the kids a bunch of Christmas presents. A trip seems like the more reasonable thing. And I've kind of made a challenge

2:08out of myself taking a very small amount of Tether. Very, very small amount. I've been running this up over the last week and it's going well. I got into position on this. Let's actually go look and see where this trade is at trading on two bit here. Let's see where we're at. So we got all right. We're doing all right so far. You know what? Tightstop to begin with. I'm going to move that stop loss above entry to cover the cost of the trade. We'll see if we can keep cooking. I got this in at about $76,800. I was talking about this channel generally and I'm going to be trading this channel until proven otherwise. Right. So we came down to the bottom of the channel seeing some sort of bounce right now. And you know, is it we're going to be bouncing off into the races? Go back up to this top of the channel. There's a lot of money flow pressure on Bitcoin right now. This is the four hour of the money flow just now breached into the red. I'll kind of zoom in so you can see this just now breaching into the red on money flow. The daily I'm assuming looks like trash

3:10after that morning movement. Yes, we are very, very sharply angled downward. Hence why I'm keeping that stop loss above that entry point just to protect and buy the kids Salana and tell them to be you know. So my son likes the altcoin sector. He likes the higher risk higher reward type situation that altcoins have. My daughter, the more I guess studious one, the more kind of locked in on an educational spectrum is more serious about Bitcoin. She was actually buying Bitcoin much more aggressively than vast majority of these people that are out there, larping that their crypto hardcore hardcore crypto users. A lot of these people, the influencers, the trading analysts, they were not willing to buy the $60,000 range. My daughter was hammering into that. I mean hammering. Hammer. Hammer. I drew a kind of leverage. This one on this trade, I believe was 35x. I believe this one. It's a small amount of margin. I think it was about a thousand

4:15bucks, maybe 1200, 1200 on 35x. It's doing what good so far. And we did a classroom last yesterday, or about 2 PM in school, where Kelly Kelley, lead it up and we discussed reversal candles. We discussed reversal patterns and we had the wonderful triple bottom. This morning we found that support right around the mid-76 mark. I did to keep an eye on liquidation levels as well. It's kind of a split bag on liquidation levels to be honest with you. Last time I looked at it. So let's go back into those and see where we're at. So we have Bitcoin on the 12 hour. It's a very split race still. Came very close. These bars here on the downside. These popped up at this kind of range low, which is why I got to treat this trade very, very carefully. I can't get over the fact of how vicious this money flow on the daily is coming back down. Now on the weekly timeframe,

5:17Bitcoin, it doesn't look that scary when you're really backed up. And so what I'm thinking here is that should this range break, that stop-in profit on this trade will get washed out. Right. I'll make nothing on the trade. And we could see a range break from this parallel channel bring Bitcoin at go finding out if 60 or 73 72 thousand dollars can be that next balance point. Because it's a very fast move that we had to go back up into the 70 K plus range. I'm not going to be surprised by testing out the center point of this W pattern. I see it happened quite a bit in crypto. And that's where my mindset is right now. It's like we had the 10 a.m. pump up. Right. We dumped up to 10 a.m. And then I saw us kind of catching our footing right before it. Usually these markets like to kind of do the inverse of what the average person's thinking. Because the idiot trade today, the easy trade is that everything's going to hell in a hand basket. We're

6:19going to de-risk like crazy. And largely I've seen over the last few weeks. There's been massive inflows in the crypto and Bitcoin. I don't think those are necessarily banking on the clarity act has worked out. I think it's actually more related to the SEC moving forward with their own. And we have a Brian Armstrong coming out with even more highlights about that. Good morning everyone. You can just do fine swing, swing trading without leverage. Absolutely. Swing trading. And that's how I treat the all coin bag. It's like I treat the all coin bags as trades for sure. Because those have to last, you know, for a few years, right? I'm loading up on all coins in what is generally in my view a bottoming structure for crypto. But those all coins will be jaded. Bitcoin's will kind of longer term play. I love this. Not so bullish. No more. Hey, you lose. Oh, did I lose? Oh, Lord, you're making me think this trade went sideways on me. Let me go look.

7:23Let me go look here. All right, we're still holding on. I don't know what percentage. I think this is about a 20% on this bag. Let's see here. I don't like this type of setup here. Oh, don't like that. You know what? I'm going to clip it. I'm going to clip it. I'm clipping it. And the reason why it might keep continuing up, but you know, I'm seeing the kind of real strong movement up here to around 773 and then in goal thing and a very short time frame. I'm leverage trade. And then this is the five minute time frame. I saw this engulfing five minutes to the downside. So, you know, we're going to find out. And if it does breach down to that liquidation level, that'll be something I'm watching for as well. We got to actually map out the liquidation level to the downside just for my trading pleasure before I go too far into this. So let's go check that out and got 76 flat. And that was kind of like the original right up in school on Monday or

8:30Tuesday was, you know, angling towards the downside. I did say that we were angling towards the downside on Tuesday, just when we're talking about being at the center point, we were right under the center point and this money flow is looking like trash. So I'll watch this very, very closely because, you know, 76 flat, 76 flat, there's a large amount of liquidations, but godly, it would be a fast ride downtown to at least that $72,000 mark if we do lose this current range. So to go profits, I wonder what percentage I'm going to look at. And usually my goal is to make around 20 to 30% per day on a trading bag. Like that is a good compounding goal for me to continue on. Sometimes it's easier to just, you know, take the hope you're aware of the chart might go from that trade, something and it would be, you know, the trade end all work for you ever in your life.

9:30You know, 20 to 30% gains on the day end up treating me well. So let's see here, go to position. Let's see here. I got to kind of go full screen here. I'm going to go full screen. Let's see here. Bam. Yeah. So this one is right around like 18%. You know, right around 18%. This is the type of stuff, you know, 18, 30% all that's fine. You know, because sure you might be making the trade that could change everything forever. But more often than not, you're trading within range. And I do get very serious about trading when we start hitting these ranges. But here's the top story and all the top movers. Let's actually go to coin market cap and check out the top movers for the day here. Let's see what we're working with here. So we got ponds on a pretty steep pullback. 22% down on ponds, pump fund next in line with a big pullback. Interesting. Venice is down by 10% and still above $20. That was absolutely crazy watching Venice over the last few days. Venice has

10:33been on fire. Let's look at the broader crypto market here. I'll make this a little bit larger so we can see all first. So I can see. I don't make it smaller for you guys so you can see now. It is Bitcoin at that 777 mark. We got B&B at 700 bucks. Solana fighting for its life at this $100 spot. Solana is walking pretty in tandem, but on almost like a hyperbolic scale compared to Bitcoin right now. You know, nothing too crazy, you know, with this bloodbath, it's interesting to see most of the pain isolated to these because ponds is basically a Robinhood version of a pump fund. You know what? It's been kind of a all right. So yeah, it's so weird. It's so weird how some people have the problem the mic, the others don't. I don't get it ginger and shwitty. Maybe restart or refresh, you know, maybe it's a browser. Now ponds, it hit the dollar markets down to 57 cents.

11:38Marketcaps at $405 million. I do need some more data before I try to trade or you're like, go into a trade on this thing because like this original shelf right here is likely to be visited around the 30 cent, 39 cent mark. I'm going to be careful about this pond situation because it's a very new kind of hot and fresh brand new item on the crypto market. I like to have a little bit more data before I go there. And also, maybe I'll use this. Trump is promising a $5,000 dividend to every adult citizen in the United States if the Republicans win the midterm elections. We're about to get paid off if we can push the Republicans across the finish line in the midterm elections with $5,000 per citizen. What a deal. What a deal indeed. Currently around $245 million citizens 18 and up at this dividend would go to this would cost us a cool $1.2 trillion.

12:38Nothing wrong with that. Love what's $1.2 trillion between friends. This would mark the biggest economic stimulus payment since the pandemic. The thing about it is, is the pandemic payments, they're going out during a global economic shutdown. Now we're going to be getting double the amount of money because Trump's unsure about locking up the next election cycle. This kind of feels like bribery. Is this, is this, uh, am I being bribed by the Trump administration right now? And you know, this made me think of a wonderful, wonderful piece of artistic development. And I'll, maybe I'll get demonetized for this, maybe not. But it reminds me of this moment right here. I'm going to give a damn about no jobs. People don't need no jobs. People need money. This is exactly what I thought of. The moment I saw that headline, you know, it's, we are absolutely at the juxtaposition. The crossroads between the matrix

13:42idioticity and wolf of wall of wolf of Wall Street. That's where we're at right now. It is the situation at hand. And it's, I don't make up the rules. This is just the scenario. These, these are the cards that we've been dealt. You know, now we get a $5,000 and what would you buy? Let's say we all band together. I think this is even, let's say we all band together and push the Republicans across the finish line in this next midterm election. Which altcoin are you going to buy? Or are you just going to buy Bitcoin? You can buy a pretty good chunk of Bitcoin in 5,000 bucks, right? Not a bad buy on Bitcoin at $5,000. But what would you buy with a $5,000 payment President Comancheau wants to know? Now let's take a look at the rest of the market here. Back to coin market cap. Radium 5% pullback into $1.32, Venice. Radium is making a definite move. You know what? Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid. Russia, Russia, Russia.

14:47I just won't give up much ground. It's still, it is looking a little sloppy. I think you know what? Hyperliquid is probably an altcoin. We got to map out the money flows later on the show because Hyperliquid is looking a little sloppy right now. Even though it's over 80 bucks still. And even though it's over 80 bucks, there is a little bit of slope to that. Now let's move on to the biggest news for Bitcoin. Traders dial down bullish, playing ahead of the US inflation data that came out this morning. Now again, the inflation data simply put it was a producer price index already came out a little bit hot. We have the weekly jobless index that also came out consensus around 205,000 prior 206 of really flat line. The main thing, let's go over to the trading economic calendar because there is some big data releases. So 830 AM was that PPI release. And this website is tradingeconomics.com. So where you get kind of the whole calendar of all the releases. The European Central Bank is coming out their press conference as well this morning where

15:51they are interest rate hiking. And we have existing home sales. Existing home sales is a big big, big data point. Now here is the kind of long turnout. Look, this is the yearly on PPI. The data that just came out this morning. And it is notably increasing. We're seeing a pretty strong increase back to these price, these levels that really scared us into the interest rate hikes that we saw previously. But the main thing here, and this is where that big variable is, is existing home sales. Raising interest rates into this environment where the home sales are collapsing. And now this time, this is over 10 years. This is a 10 year outlook for US home sales. It's a very difficult situation to be in for the US economy because, you know, obviously, and I get this, and I've said this myself, 10 year yields more directly impact mortgage rates. But if banks are having to have a higher interest rate in general,

16:56that does add pressure for interest rate hikes for basically monetary control, but constriction, where loans are more difficult to get, you get banks acting a little bit more conservative with their money. And you know what, a lot of those lending insider schemes that have been going on with the AI industry and they're, you know, we're going to be worth $100 million. We're only worth a couple million right now, but lend me the money. That situation might get a little bit more difficult if we see these interest rates continue to be moved to the upside. So that interest rate decision for the United States is coming up very, very soon. Let's actually go look at the likelihoods here. There's 64% likelihood of a interest rate hike coming up on September 16th, six days away. So God, it's going to be a loaded. We have September 15th is a clarity act hearing and then September 16th is the FOMC. This is going to be a crazy volatile week. Honestly, I mean, it looks

17:57very, very volatile. 64% likelihood that there's going to be an interest rate hike coming up, but we did have a high monetary ally of the United States, the European Central Bank, raised their interest rates already by those 25 dips to 2.65% the highest level in, oh my god, dun dun dun. 18 months. 18 months. This is where inflation levels are the worst they've been in three months. I mean, a lot of people are kind of ignoring the fact that our unrealized losses on banks. The depth of which our unrealized losses on banks is hitting right now is unprecedented. Unpressed. That's the real ugly elephant in the room that none of these banks want to talk about is they push crypto to the side. They don't want crypto to come in and try to bolster bank deposits and work with with banks and make it better. No, I'm going to shut it down. We're going to sit on our castle that's already on fire, but there are our insulated room is made of stone. So we're going to let it burn down. They don't care. This interest rate hike from the

18:59European Central Bank is not that big of a concern. And honestly, when I think about the doom and gloom potential of an interest rate hike, it's not really hitting for me. It's not really hitting because the interest rate hikes that we've had with just to talk about this briefly on the larger scale since February on Bitcoin. We've actually seen holds and hikes through this whole time frame. And those have actually, you know, immediately down to but then created a upswing in Bitcoin over the next few weeks. Whereas vice versa, you got interest rate cuts during the bull years of 24 and 25. And it didn't help us at all, right? It did not help us at all. Bitcoin seems to be just understanding that they're going to have to print their way out of this. And you know what? I'm okay with that. I'm okay with the original thesis of Bitcoin being a hedge against an irresponsible government from a monetary standpoint is the thesis. And that thesis is still holding true very much so even with the ETFs. And there's a little bit of news about how

20:03many ETFs have left the party that I'll be getting into. But let's compare the interest rate likelihoods on Fed CME 2, uh, Polymarket as well. So let's see here. CME Group, Polyman. This is CME tool. Just type in CME Fed tool and Google and it'll bring you to this. This is rate interest rate hike likelihoods are actually going up pretty quickly. We were just looking at this. It's 64%. It's actually 69% right now. Let's check out. Polymarket is coming in at. Let's do a quick refresh. I need it's my money and I need it now. There's a lot of FOMO for these. The you guys are excited to get bribed by Trump for $5,000. Maybe the like if you take a jab, if you get $10,000, you know, the virus is gone. Or it's I mean it's it's here to stay but the the scare behind is gone. Maybe they could double it for late jabbers. Late jabbers to the party should get double. Now, God, my sarcasm. It hurts. It hurts 75% right. Oh no, wait. We're about

21:0753% likelihood of a rate hike. So Polymarket is very, very split on this right now. It's almost half and half. It keeps bouncing off. Mm. And you know, this would this should be a bet that I take on Polymarket. It should be a bet that I take or a bet on something. But I just don't see him. Here's how big the single family housing industry is, right? Just to talk about why I got that Ron Burgundy. I don't believe you face on is the housing industry. The single family housing industry is a hundred to 120 trillion dollars worth of value for the United States economy. You add in commercial real estate that's breaching 300 trillion dollars. It's hitting almost what some economists would argue are stagflation or basically a stalemate on that industry. And I just don't see them putting their foot on the neck of an industry that

22:10they can't watch. Here's what will happen. If we do actually go to stagflation, they act responsibly and raise interest rates to the levels that we saw happen in the 79 to 1980s stagflationary event, which is an uncomfortable thing. A lot of people don't want to admit we're in it right now. That will raise interest rates up to light, you know, 12, 15, God forbid, 18%. Then a true locked up so single family housing industry happens. And then a true exit of 30 to 50 trillion dollars from the US economy should that occur. I just don't see it happen. I mean, let me know what you guys said. Are they going to raise interest rates or not this week? What do you think? Let me know in the chat. I know DCA and Prey is a thing and they're going to raise rates. I'm very curious to see what your guys' input is on this pesky dams. I've seen some excited. I can't get over the excitement for the Trump $5,000 stimme. You know, I could trade my way into that on a daily. I don't need a government to come pander to me with that. So ridiculous. It's

23:12world is so insane. Now this is an ETF that has gone absolutely ballistic. This is shipping containers. Shipping tankers rather shipping tanker ETF going parabolic. You know, what we've seen over the course of the last year and the test if the test if the shipping vessels can freely go through any straight they went on the, you know, this what do you call globalist setup? It's been tested and it's not really there, right? There's you have the US vying for control, the stator from Moose, which is a major pinch point for a lot of the Southeast Asian market and really a lot of world economy. And you have the hooties and the iranians who are local to that region that are testing that and it really has shown that globalism has not only failed from a populist standpoint but from a logistical standpoint as well from a logistical standpoint as well. Let's do some TA. I mean, we'll get some TA. I'll get back at some TA. First, let's look at this though. We've

24:13seen some shift under the ground of the Bitcoin ETFs. We've seen Bitcoin ETFs shed $167 million worth of holdings after the strongest three week inflow run of 2026. So our 21 shares led Tuesdays with draw was 78 million followed by Grace Kales Bitcoin trust with 27 million. Blackrock, I shares came in number three with 19 point that is interesting that we're seeing less bleed from Black Rock than we are from Kathy Woods and her arc 21 shares in Grace scale. Let's go check out the data as it sits right now since the Bitcoin total spot e flows, right? And this is on a daily time frame. Tis but a scratch, honestly. If you're looking at this from a, I mean, you get the fun, you know, title of worst thing ever since the best thing ever. But really, when you're looking at the data, it's yesterday's outflows or September 8s outflows rather were 46 mil and then yesterday's

25:15were 120 mil. The days that proceeded that were, I mean, the smallest one was 100 mil, right? These are the real September 1st and September August 28th were over 200 mil and outflows. I'm seeing more good than bad on these ETF outflows. If I'm just looking at this with a larger time frame perspective on and on the is kind of cool and so so value. It gives you the spotlight. Robin Hood chain as a whole is down by about 8.9%. Interesting data to highlight within the Robin Hood chain ecosystem here in it highlights its uniswap Morpho lit Arbitram ponds cash cat big pullbacks in that whole ecosystem of the biggest pullbacks being the kind of meme slash pump fun positions in Robin Hood down over 20% right now. Uniswap given up a huge chunk of that gain as well. Now on the time frame of this clarity act, it is coming up. It's right around the corner. Treasury Secretary Scott is freaking out right now. He's urging clarity act passage after the Senate returns.

26:20He strongly urges everyone to remain at the negotiating table agree to the motion to proceed and continue the legislative process. He said in a Wednesday post warning that failing to pass the bill would send a troubling signal about America's leadership in the digital asset industry. Senate is scheduled to return from the August recess next Monday. According to its legislative schedule, the clarity act seeks to establish that first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. I think that what we've seen right now is just a clear example of how useless elected officials truly are. And the fact that they can just go on recess and really not figure anything out while you're in arguably what many call a massive war of the United States is in. We have debt going out of control. Middle of the lower income is collapsing. Savings are collapsing.

27:21debt on the average person is skyrocketing to the upside. They go on vacation. They go, they're going to take a break. Go on recess. Reset is so insane. Galaxy has reduced its odds on the clarity acts passing in 2026 several times over recent months. Now it sits at a 10% likelihood that the clarity act is going to move forward. Jesus, that is just brutal. And this is me banking on the fact that the government is still useless. It's almost like a and that should be just my blanket statement goggles that I wear on anything that I want to put a bet on in polymark is that it's all fake. It's all lame. This this and you know what honestly here's probably what's going to happen. So this clarity acts probably not going to move forward. Right. This is probably dead in the water. And as we see this play out over the next few years. The SEC and the CFTC have already made good

28:26workable parameters for how crypto can expand and operate here in the United States. They're already gotten started on it. And I think that it's actually much healthier for something like Paul Atkins who is pro crypto and is not trying to gut or kneecap the deep eye industry. I think it's better that they actually set the current leadership of the SEC. I think is actually going to be beneficial for the clarity of the United States and crypto. If we can just see this defy kneecapping bill the clarity act die and let the SEC and the CFTC build the parameters behind it. I think it's going to be much more beneficial for us because the clarity act as it sits right now is trash for defy industry. This is going to kneecap the defy industry. And sometimes you got to take a couple steps back to move many steps forward. And I think that's what we're seeing right now on the on the general kind of flow of where

29:28this clarity act is going. I'm not sitting here begging for the government to come save my bags either. I think that the SEC that we have right now, the leadership there is just fine to give good reasonable working space for these companies here in the US. Brian Armstrong, he doesn't seem to concerned about things. He's saying that Bitcoin is bottomed for the current cycle and expects an uptrend over the next two years. The bald one has spoken bald and beautiful. Mr. Brian Armstrong believes that Bitcoin is in that bottoming cycle right now. Says it's going to trend higher on the next two years leading into the first next or the next having for Bitcoin rather personally thinks we've seen the bottom. I said on a Thursday interview with Bloomberg television, it's going to start to uptrend over the next coming year or two as we reach the next having event. Now the next having event for Bitcoin is in I believe slated be April of 2028. All right. So we got a while until the next having event. Rough to, I mean, when you really really map this out, we're so zoomed in on the shorter timeframes. And you

30:33know, I'm guilty of it too. And I'm trade and I get quite zoomed in. But that April 2028 time frame is pretty far out here. Let's see. God don't even give me it somewhere around there. You know, if we do breach all time highs and this is a great question, is it reasonable to think that we could breach all time? I think we're going to break our previous all time high before the next having to. I think that the quickening is upon Bitcoin because we had our having around April 24, we breached the all time high by a couple of months, maybe a month or two before the all time high. I could see us hitting it two, three, maybe even four months early. I think we could actually do that. I think we could breach the all time high by the end of 27. And honestly, with the way that this market is going, each weight that you have to have from the previous high to the extreme low, it's getting shorter. The weights are getting shorter.

31:38Let's actually, while I'm on the Bitcoin chart, let's look at where that 50 SMA is landing on the daily and weekly time frame. So that's a 50 close and a 200. We got that golden cross. Right. And we covered yesterday that golden cross usually ends up with a little bit of headwind. Historically, it's giving us around a 10% headwind to the downside once that golden cross clips over. And let's go check this out on the weekly time frame here to see where this moving average is landing. Let's see where we're landing. A brutal weekly candle too. Not a good look. That weekly bearish engulfing candle. Not a great look. This 50, 50 SMA landing right there at a ballot highlight it so we can see about 79 6, 79 6 right now. So we are well below that for the time being 77 and two. And you know, locally, we're rolling over from this kind of local spot here. I can delete that.

32:41I killed that trade. Coming up to the cross, I do like these moving averages to just kind of work on the trend as I'm already in a trade. I'm glad I clip that though because I got a lot of stuff to cover here and all coins, the all coin sector something I really need to start mapping out at the end of this show because I'm getting an itch. I saw someone in the chat comment. They're getting phomo right now. I feel the phomo too. Like the pullbacks. The pullbacks give me phomo in this environment. So I'm going to be doing a little bit of a live shop and stupid around the all coin sector. I'm like it up right. I'm strong. It's feeling like we're at the bottom of this cycle though. You know, I did. He's a pretty smart fellow. I'm strong point of the growth beyond Bitcoin saying stable coin payments on base have increased 700% year over year. So that projections for that stable coin market to reach $3 trillion by 2030 while pointing to payments tokenization prediction markets and agentic finance as four key areas for coin based to focus on heading into 2027. Yeah,

33:43rural assets, AI, AI infrastructure. I mean, this is going to be a big portion of the crypto narrative for a pretty good amount of time moving forward here and shout out to Hunter Biden. Hunter Biden had to do it in famous base head movement released a meme coin on the base network and none other than the base network to roll out a rug pole just days before the final hurrah for the clarity act. That's off. That's off. Incredible. Incredible timing, Mr. Hunter Biden. Now let's talk about let's talk about all coins. Yeah, 100 just wrecked them DGN's absolutely. Let's go here. Let's check out all coin dominance. So this is from Matthew Highland. Great actual friend of the show and he was on last week with some great highlights. Dominance is now under the maximum pressure as all coins are breaking a macro structure before Bitcoin for the first

34:45time in five years. Now earlier this week, I was highlighting how sticky Ethereum and a lot of all coins were being even as Bitcoin ran into its own headwinds. It is a very interesting thing to think about the Bollinger bands they constrict and cause a massive, massive price movement once these bands constriction honestly, this looks like the tightest constriction we've seen. This is the tightest constriction I'm seeing on this entire history. This is Logo Idmik from 2015. It's a Logo Idmik take it or leave it. But the constriction on the Bollinger bands and kind of the pressure built up in the pressure cooker on all coins is very, very strong right now. And so with that being said, there's going to be a list of different all coins that I want to map out and kind of do some fresh TA on in today's show. This is the latest DeFi developments from DeFi investor. We have Ava app coming in and rolling out the savings mobile app, becoming available in early access. Pendle launching that token, I stuck dividend movement. Pendle is a very interesting

35:49project. Hasn't hit my radar in terms of buying yet, but I feel like I should start mapping that one out once again. Jupiter announced the Jupiter vault yield. The strategy managed by their experts. And we have a theory of announcing plans to enable paying gas fees in stable coins. Layers zeroed a little movement, more folk midnight. We already talked about that. The other stuff is kind of smaller. Solana releasing payment channels though, which can process a million payments per second. Solana is positioned for that AI agent run. AI agent run on Solana is very, very interesting. Arrow drone not giving up much. We'll check out Arrow drone. I know that we popped to like 63 cents, pull back down into the mid 50s felt painful, but it's just something that we just deserve. When we rise that fast, you gotta expect some sort of calm down in the altcoin sector. So let's go over to coin market cap and get snooping around on these alts. So we're kind of a funner part of my job when we're entering the honestly, I will say this,

36:53this is the funnest part of my job when we're in a bear market, but we're coiling up to get out of the bear market and setting up that great opportunity. This is the best part of it. You know, it may not feel like it because everyone kind of gives up on the idea of crypto, but for me, it's incredible. So we're down by 1.7 on Bitcoin. Let's look at the top gainers here and see if anything sticks out in terms of someone pumping against the grain V chain up by 22 percent of the week is put up a 9 percent gain on the day. Casper still holding on to its pump. It's up by about 3.5 percent, 26 percent, not bad. Falcon finance. This one has been running. I don't mean to pick on this one for the randomness of it, but I've been seeing this thing. The ran from 8 cents to about 16 cents recently, very down on the all time chart going back to they released it like the literal worst time you get a possibly released a token September of 2025. She is the least strong swoop up though. Strong swoop up. This is kind of interesting. This is a smaller market. It's

38:00a half a billion dollars volume way down. It's probably helping it slice through that move in here. I'm going to start paying attention to that a little bit more, but a project that I know I want to look at first and foremost is near protocol. Near protocol. We've talked about kind of the foundational connections it's built out for himself, which I do enjoy the intense system on near, hooked into Z-cash, hooked into privacy, AI. It's it's riding a couple different narratives. Now just from a coin market cap perspective, let's get this. So it's at a 3.1 billion dollar market cap right now fully diluted. We still got we got a basically all the token circulating, which is good. It doesn't have that tokenomic release pressure on its back. It's going to near. It's going to use to see. I know I've been mapping this one out for a little bit of time on the larger time frames. Here we go. So this is kind of the value area low marked out here at a

39:02dollar 50 value area high at about 298. Yeah, let's see here. So near. It hasn't done a vibe check. I mean, honestly, it already kind of did at that dollar 80 mark. Let's look at the money flow and see where near could be headed because it's definitely waking up. This is one of the ones that has a better kind of internal structure that I've seen lately. On the daily, it's in the green on money flow in the green on money flow. VWAP coming back down to the negative didn't affect the money flow being to the upside very much at all, which is very important. Let's see the weekly time frame. Just now and see this is another thing to cut my eye is we were trying to make that swoop back into the green money flow very quickly. It's running into a little bit of turbulence right now. But I mean, honestly, let's pull a pivot and check out where the the gold and pocket is. Okay,

40:03so let's get rid of this volume range. Let's check out the Fib. Go from this down to the bottom and let's check out the golden to GP. This turbulence is around 270 very notable. We got a punch above 270 about 280 actually because you match number the moving average here 200 SMA moving average. So breaking 280 with conviction is going to be super important for you to be able to pull off over the weekend. If it wants to close these weekly candles with strength, I mean, we need a punch above that 290 mark essentially come back down, prove it out support to keep cooking to the upside. A golden pocket where is not too crazy of a target to have from this local washout is about $6. It's 240 right now. So there is some there's definitely some upside, I think, for near. It's making its way back to this is another important part about this. So this is an altcoin that

41:06rode the trend with vast majority of other altcoins where you set lower highs last bull market. Looking at how quickly it's trying to reclaim that it come back to test that trend line, you know, there's going to be some altcoins where this structure is existed on them right now. There are going to be some altcoins that are able to break that, move up and reach and create a larger W pattern. I think that that is going to be the case where a couple different altcoins. So identifying the ones that are going to be that way, you know, in this environment super, super important. Let's go through the chat here. Plan to become quantum resistant. Don't give me wrong. Both in like area, check DRB please. All right, I'll check out DRB. Don't figure out what that is. Yeah, I've never heard of DRB so I'm not ready to kind of do that height hot on the show here. Light coin to a thousand dollars. Imagine the smell. You know what?

42:07You know what? Light coin. Let's look. Light coin is just, I'm going to guess, uh, 70 bucks, 50 bucks. Oh, god, I haven't looked at this chart in a little while. Geez. Where's the momentum? Light coin. This looks like Cardano. Hold on. We're going back down. One of these 2019 lows, 2022 lows. These lows each cycle matching each other are not great. I got to say that. Got to say that. Maybe I can get more price data on another, maybe okay. Actually, here we go. A little bit more price data. Uh, like when it's not looking that bad from a weekly money flow perspective, it's not looking to hoard. Very deep, very deep. And that's another thing. I want to say this, if you're sitting here looking at all these charts, I'm like, I don't know. It wasn't that bad of a bear market. We've

43:13probably got to go much, much lower because this bear market really didn't hit. I'm going to just clarify this for you guys right now, okay? Because I've looked at this from a few different perspectives. Like when I look at the charts and looking at money flow a lot, I'll show you on the Bitcoin chart in particular though, because Bitcoin chart is really the, the driving factor behind the excitement coming back. Bitcoin breaches 100k. Everyone's going to love you for telling them about crypto for right now. They hit you. This is down. Let's go to Bitcoin on regular fiat trash measurement here. You ask, let's go. So the bear market looked shallow when we're looking at money flow downturn. Right. It really does. When you're looking at the money flow downturn for this cycle, these look like very tiny beginnings to what's to come on the bear market. But it's on a weekly timeframe. And another measurement that I very much so like using for this very reason I

44:16have multiple points of confidence is the MACD. And the two week timeframe, something we stumbled across last week that I don't think enough people heard because there's still people screeching at me for lower lows and just mass chaos and death and destruction. So when you look at Bitcoin on the two week timeframe, just looking at the MACD, literally just looking at the MACD, you're going to see that this bear market that we are going through right now is well big enough to be in line with bear markets at the past. It's actually exceeded the bear market of 2022 in terms of the downturn on the MACD when you're measuring from a bigger timeframe the two week. So when you're getting more data and you're understanding the greater pain that's felt in the bear market that we have right now, the pain has absolutely the pain is in the rear view mirror. The pain was back here right in the 60, 60,000 dollar region where everyone's like, no, no, TJ drew you wrong. We're going to hell. It's

45:19in the world. The pain is absolutely there. Though it may not look like it on the time frame, when you're looking at Bitcoin on the two week timeframe when money, it doesn't look like this massive capitulation. Honestly, how could you look at this setup with this setup and not fine reminiscence in this? How do you look at this and ignore the comparison there? I mean, they're beautiful, beautiful comparison. And I don't like to use data from markets where they're $10 billion about market cap to overlay over the 1.6 trillion we're at right now. I just thought that's a little dishonest to the reality, but we have we have absolutely hit the extreme bear market lows. Let's see our super chats here. Am I missing super chats? I got the other super chats like DBA. Would you trust? Just look at the chart, read what it is, guarantee you'll say it's interesting.

46:20I will look at it. Jay Harris, I will absolutely look at this. I will look at it. I appreciate you super chat. I'm not going to hop right in. This sounds like a telegram chat. It's like, it's $5. Jump in. No, absolutely not. If I'm measuring something out, I got to make sure that it's a make sure that it's solid. I can't just hop right in there naked. I can't hop naked into the pool, babe. Can't hop naked in the pool. Let's see here. Does anyone truly believe Bitcoin going down to 35k? That's crazy to me. crypto, you too. I absolutely do see that still out there. I absolutely do still still see that out there. And it's from some of the people that I've no have seen multiple bear markets. It's really not something that I know Jay had calm down. It's going to be fine. I will measure it out. If I see something that's worth noting, either good or bad on it, I will

47:22absolutely have. There are people that are still looking for that 30k Bitcoin though. There are in 35k. And I'll see some people I consider very smart. Some people I consider very, very smart. So their warnings are heated. And every now and again, it's good to get a bucket of cold water dumped on your head. From where we're at right now, we haven't lost this range or just kind of flailing around at the bottom end of it. Let's see where we're at. I'm giving up a lot of that. So I was happy seller. I'm fine to take that little 20% snag. I'll be watching this for the rest of the day, though. The all coin sector for spot. I have a couple of plans. I got picked up a little bit of Morpho to get things started at the 48 cent mark. So I want to measure out Morpho and see where it's at. Let me know what coins you have in mind as well. Obviously we do this in school. But if you have a coin that you want live TA done on right now, just let me know in the chat. Near protocol, back to near protocol in the Alcoins zone. This is something that is very worth noting.

48:23And I'm seeing so there's 200 SMA. A very bullish structure and kind of a continuation of this friend line, which dare I say may be developing. I could see a trend line developing. We bounce off this 200 SMA. Find that support support spot. Oh, this is the Litecoin actually. It looks like a near chart. I could see this though. I could see a roll over to like 50 bucks flat. Follow the trend line. Bounce off this. Get your golden cross on the 50 and the 200 SMA. I could see this playing out. It was on the daily timeframe for Litecoin. Litecoin, when it decides to move, and this is one thing that I do like about all Litecoin is that it's no, you know, $1 to $3 move. I mean, this thing when it actually starts cooking, get really exciting. Very sharp moves to the upside, followed by extreme pain back down, you know, like each one of these short term moves 100%. From where it's at right now, you know, even if it does have just a completely failed breakout, if it only rises to

49:28the 200 SMA on the weekly timeframe, that's still a gain of like 62%. So I don't hate Litecoin because I've seen this thing move very aggressively. I just have to take the fact that it's recent all time high in this bull market was terrible. It was terrible. This is one of the worst second ignitions or third ignitions on a bull market I've ever seen. Right. It had it going on. Right. It had it going on in 2021. I know this thing had a couple hundred bucks, 400 bucks. Recently though, watching it Peter out at like 120 bucks, that's something to take into account serious pressure in terms of that from a chart perspective. Always sure you show your units. This is the whole argument right now. I have a big bias. I have caution. Do I have a bias from not hopping into something? I get chart requests all the time and not no hate on you, J. Harris. They

50:30might be incredible, but most of the suggestions I hear are kind of terrible. I just have to take heed about that before I go in. I will I will gut it and if there's something good, I will check it out. Now another coin I want to map out today is hyper liquid. We're in reset kind of pullback zone. There's going to be a lot of trading regardless in this environment, but hyper liquid. Let's see here. Let's go to hype. Secondary money flow green dot printed and no follow through. No follow through. VWAP is angling down. Still hanging out in the $80 range. Can't really call it a range yet though. We've only been here for, I mean, I guess you could call it a range. Been here for about three weeks. Zoom in on the daily time frames. $60 might be in store. $60 might be in store for this. I can see it in the short term,

51:36the pressure on crypto continues because Trump, Trump himself named hyper liquid, come to US shores, which was right in that time frame where we saw this pump off of that mid 55 shelf and we pump by like 41% after Trump said that. Now we're seeing a walk downtown to Chinatown. I still hold the hype that I bought at 55, but I could see myself adding as we get closer to this trend line. Around the 65 $65 mark, I think that that is a potential. There does seem to be some headwinds to the downside. I mean, there's a very sharp move to the upside of momentum. It's coming down with the vengeance right now. It's a tough call. It's a tough call right now. Load up after the hype dump this weekend. I mean, yeah, if I see a good dump on hyper liquid, hyper liquid is a monster. Hyperliquids a monster that has created a flywheel of excitement because revenue

52:41is going back into the token value. The holders are actually winning by holding a winning project. Oh, you know what? Maybe I should give that. I should give my scorecard, my system that. All right, that's a good idea. I'll do this a lot. What harm can it do to give the robot? Where is that project here? I'm going to go back to the super chat. All right, so DRB. Is it DRB confirming chat if it's DRB? Because I saw some people mention in DRB. I'm curious. I'm curious. Now I'm going to now you got me one this new because I do have a robot. Is it DRB? Jay Harris? Let's give it to the robot and see what it thinks. It's probably going to take out some aggression on it because it's a newer project. I can almost I'm just going to guess that it's going to hate the tokenomics because it being a new project. But all right, let's. I'll love it. You're this is you're I'm going to love it. I hate more crypto than I like. So that's saying a lot

53:46that I'm going to love it. Okay. All right. Because how I've stayed effective. This is how I've stayed effective. Being very clear. I am very cautiously optimistic about all coins. Right. So vast majority of them can be one debt relief bot. Is that what they call this thing? Oh, Lord. All right. Well, debt relief bot. It's funny. Initial like finding out the name. If that's actually the name, I mean, that'd be pretty hilarious. Debt relief bot. This is a real thing. Extreme danger. As I look at this chart, okay. There's a $26 million market cap. Very, very small market cap. It's growing very quickly. Let's see here. It's on the base chain. Let's just go their ex account. Let's go the ex account here. Quick litmus test on the X and this kind of live. I mean,

54:48the logo could use some more DRB task force. What is going on here? Debt relief bot task force here. All right. How much engagement not much engagement, but it is new. How much engagement? I'm not seeing a bot level of engagement. So I am seeing like different numbers. Small account. See how many followers you got about 3000 account. Okay. Okay. So the likes to follow or count isn't isn't horrible. Let's see here. Let's see here. I'm wondering what the robot oddgees. We're going in. Brainworks scored zero. Okay. Brainworks scored zero. Per the course, it's often enough to reject it outright. Read the band. Guidance below is conditional resolving the framework. Team track records. I can probably use case. No human team is identified. Was it

55:50banker bot that created this? I mean, just reading this, I think hex got like a 20, like a 27 or something. Hex, hex got something like this as well. Option community to expect that's new value capture. Very bad. Good on tokenomics. So better than I thought about tokenomics. Okay. When in price go up, number go up technology as part of this. Like what is this sound that 24 hour time frame? Things been cooking on the 24 hour time frame. Let's look at the larger time frame. It smells like crime. It smells like robotic crime. These charts movements. I mean, just 700. Probably was this 400% move and then complete wash out to the downside 500% all the way back to the downside. Brother, brother. This, this feels like top blasting. This feels like top blasting. Yeah, so it was

56:56banker bot. And this is total chaos. If you're, if you're looking at this, I mean, just expect you're literally in the boat landing on Normandy Beach by buying this token right now. Packed lower market cap play. There isn't much of TA here because what what is this? How am I supposed to do technical analysis on what looks like seasonal criminal activity? Allegedly. Okay. Allegedly. Yeah, I can't. I mean, I'd be looking for shorts. I'm looking for short. Gun to my head. I'm looking for shorts around like the three level. That's about what a what a rope or there. Let's go back to something that I feel a little bit about hyperliquid. Let's go back here. God. See, I look at those super chats. Two seconds and about a $29 million market cap and criminal seasonality. Yeah. So hyperliquid mid 60s.

58:03Decent vibe checkpoint like vibe checking and finding out support in the middle of these volume candles would would cause a little bit of joy for me. Would cause a little bit of joy. Yeah. Climbing if you may. Climbing if you may. Like on something like that chart that I was at debt relief bought on something like this. This is getting a very, very small amount of capital from me unwound into it. If I did have the intention to go into this chart, which I don't, I have the intention maybe to short it. I don't know where I can short it from. But there is no structural expansion of this network from a price perspective on this chart simply put now market cap. Let's see if the market cap has consistent growth. Okay. So the market cap. Or cause I wonder if it's actually

59:03even giving me all the data. Why am I only getting market cap data for like a few August, 2026. Let's see if the price data goes back that far as well. Okay. We're getting market cap and price data the same. Why does it look so different? Why does it look so different now? Hold on. Let me see here. That's about the same. All right. Weekly. Let's get rid of the weekly on market cap. Yeah. I'm not getting market cap data on the weekly timeframe. Kind of concerning. Kind of concerning. This is where you know, I understand the allure behind maybe an altcoin. Maybe it's the next coin to run to a billion dollars. That'd be an insane growth. I would say that most people that chase things like this end up down exponentially, which is why I compare it to some of the most difficult things the country has ever done because getting in on these things and finding the next

1:00:06absolute, you know, $110 billion runner. Very, very difficult. Very, very difficult. Let's go back to Bitcoin and see where we're at. I think I have a gut feeling. We're probably continuing to roll over from this. I think Drew's mad at me. I'm not mad at you. What are you talking about? And yes, RIP, Charlie Kirk, what happened? Did they find? Okay. You guys can pull me into the basement chat. I've stopped watching the like the the law fair go on. It's just so aggravating. I can't even all crash out like I won't have anything. I can't have anything, you know, law fair involved with me. I'll get completely distracted and just lose my sheet again. Crypto allowed me not to as well. Yeah, a trial happened. Okay. I'll read what it's about still. Jay here. So I'm still going to read. Don't worry about it. I've got the front end data. I understand the risk just because I, you know, you gotta remember, like I yo-own into things I knew were available last with last bull market. I did.

1:01:12Absolutely. I did just read that time was rising. I mean, lots of money off ICP. I did. But, you know, I got to I got to get the full picture of things before I absolutely go into it. You know, just it's capital capital protection in crypto. You can get rich rich slowly and protect it quickly. All right. Get rich slowly, protect it quickly. Now go check out Bitcoin. Kind of mean today feels like a heavy trade in day. Doesn't that? Feels like a heavy trade in day. So back to 771. I don't know if a good chunk of that little pumpy pump we have this morning. And this is interesting on the five minute time frame from that wash out this morning. This is actually a moving average. I got to watch today. The 50 SMA on the five minute. It's gonna knock and it's had the 50 SMA on the five minute. Um, rolled over. Glad I killed the long. Glad I killed the long. Get my profits. It's a tough call right now, you guys. It is a tough call. If I'm looking for longs right now, essentially breaching below this 76 six mark will tell me that

1:02:18we're gonna go find liquidity at 76 flat at the minimum. Um, you know, there is no middle ground here between 76 six and 76 flat. I would see continued pressure, you know, continued pressure. I can't really rightfully short when we're at the bottom of this general range that I've been looking at for quite some time. And let's see if we have this here. I'll actually all kind of do this live for you guys here. So here's how you create the range. As how you create the range, we want the fixed range volume profile snagger from the initial candle, drag it to where you're currently at. We'll create a visible range profile, right? Our fixed range profile, rather. We're right at the bottom end of this. I can't rightfully short this just assuming a trend break. Probably keep nipping at the heels and see if a greater bottoming formation for the day continues to form over the next few hours here. Very, very strong green dot on the hourly is printed

1:03:20now. Very strong relief relief rally might be in store, Harris, but this is where it's at. I think that hyperliquid mid 65 seems like a reasonable place for me to keep adding to the hyperliquid bag. Tao, I still like we're still hanging around 240 bucks in Tows. I haven't really seen like I like $200 towel way more than $250 towel. You know, so I'm being careful this weekend is going to be nuts. We have the clarity acts conversations. We have all of this talk next week coming up with the FOMC, the interest rate hikes that are likely to occur. And there is probably going to be some serious turbulence on this chart. The best thing that we can hope for in Bitcoin is to hold this current range and keep developing strength that this can be looked at as a bull flag long term. We are trapped under that cell wall at $82,000. Arrow and Morpho, gun to your head. I mean, at these prices, I'd be going for more arrow drone at these prices. At these prices, let's go look at arrow drone.

1:04:24Okay. You know, I did move on Morpho already really hard at two bucks. Only slightly on arrows. So that's kind of why I'm like more inclined to get more arrow. Let's see what we got developing here. It's kind of bouncing off these moving averages real nice. Five check out like 50 cents. 50 cents. The let's say the headwinds continue. You know, because of my last spot is at 48 cents. And I did like just generally being under the 50 cent mark for it. It's been cooking hard. Let's look at the weekly timeframe real quick. Let's see here. This money flow on the daily looks delicious. Arrow looks feisty. Honestly, I might have to just do that in the mid 50 zone here. The money flow on arrow drone looks way better than a lot of charts I've looked at today. So, you know, right around 50 cents

1:05:25would be great. Maybe under it. Super. I'm going to be holding off for the time being just to let some of this price action happen to be trading leverage trading a little bit more for the rest of the week. Yeah, I like 50 cents. I like 50 cents for arrow drone. A little additional adding to the bags here. Because what we're starting to I mean, I think it's a little too steep to call it a trend line. But, you know, there's is just this general trend I can see kind of a parabola starting where and then we were talking about this on the called Kelly and school. It's like the downtrend movements were massive. You can measure those huge, huge massive moves to the downtrend. And now the uptrends are trying to kind of overtake that. You can see that very clearly when you're looking at this on the weekly timeframe, these weekly candle impulses to the upside are very, very strong. I don't know if it's going to end with a weekly candle like that. That'd be terrible, terrible to end this weekly. So I'll be keeping an eye on the arrow drone chart pretty closely.

1:06:28And you know what? Heavy trade environment, a lot of money being made, a lot of money being lost. Use stop losses, live to trade another day. Be careful with that risk allocation right now. We're seeing the bubbling of an alt season coming from last few weeks of 20 and 30% days. That is literally just the front end. It's all about your entry points being lost to be very, very careful. Appreciate you guys. Not going to check out that DRB thing a little bit more and see if there's anything under the hood that I'm missing here before I give it the stamp of hatred. But I love you. Appreciate you all. And I will see you on the next episode. Stay safe out there. And not just a side note treasurer, treasurer. More problems are being talked about with treasurer. You know, for everyone that's staying on this with the, staying on this with the focused focus view point of the market all over town. I had the story earlier, but there's just a little bit of worries. In your email, if you receive a email from treasurer and it looks official,

1:07:29don't consider that official. Call, make sure to spend the time to make sure that you're getting official correspondence. There's another day to breach, another massive problem with that going on. Be very careful out there. I like arculus. I use arculus. My stuff's there. I haven't seen any worries. I'll see you on the next one. Take care. We just wanted to take a quick second to shout out our sponsor arculus. They are our cold storage hardware wallet helps you secure all of your digital assets for the future. Just tap this thing to the back of your phone and boom, you're in. We wouldn't be able to do this without them, but also wouldn't be able to do this without you guys, the disco fan. You've supported us a lot over the years. If you want to support the channel now, just use the code DC20. It gets you 20% off this card. It's the number one way you can support this channel going forward. Thank you for your support. We'll see you at the top.