Closing Bell Overtime: 3/31/26

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The Bells bringing in to the training day at the NYSE

Dimensional Fund Advisors, bringing the Bell and at the Nasak Royal Gold.

Welcome to Closing Bell Over Time.

Live from Studio B at the Nasak Market site.

I'm Melissa Lee along with Mike Santoli.

Stocks storing today and reports Iran is open to ending the war.

Closing near the highs, the Dow and the SB 500,

more than 2% the Nasak up nearly 4%.

It's biggest one day game since May.

Our market's team is all over today's action.

Christina Parks and Neville is on stocks.

Brian Sullivan on the somewhat muted move in the price of oil.

Rick Santelli is watching bonds.

But let's begin with the very latest on a possible end to the Iran War.

Amy Javers joins us from Washington with what we've heard and what we know, Amin.

Yeah, a possible end might be going a little too far,

but we do have this report from Axios,

which is reporting that China and Pakistan are floating a new proposal

to end the war in Iran.

Essentially it would be a ceasefire in exchange for safe passage

in the Strait of Hormuz.

Now Axios is citing a conversation with the foreign minister of Pakistan

for their reporting.

The publication says President Trump declined to comment to them on the specifics.

What he has said publicly is that negotiations are ongoing.

And if Iran doesn't cut a deal that he likes by April 6th,

he's going to bomb civilian infrastructures such as power plants.

Now, the president took to social media this morning

to hurl some criticism at American allies who he argues have been

insufficiently supportive of the United States.

Now, he wrote that France has been very unhelpful

and warned that the USA will remember.

Any road of the UK, I have a suggestion for you.

Number one, buy from the US.

We have plenty.

And number two, build up some delayed courage.

Go to the Strait and just take it.

You'll have to start to learn to fight for yourself.

The USA won't be there for you anymore,

just like you weren't there for us.

But what many countries appear to be doing here

is cutting side deals to pay Iran for safe passage of their ships,

creating a significant new revenue stream now

for the Islamic Republic that did not exist before the war.

Guys, back over to you.

How about the reporting in the sense stocks flying in the new hour

so that they would be open,

Iran would be open to an end to the war

should it secure certain guarantees?

Yeah, I mean, Iran has said that before

going back to last week, right?

And what they've said is they want sovereignty

over the Strait of Hormuz.

They want reparations and war payments for damage

from the United States.

There's a whole set of conditions

that Iran has said would have to be met in order to end the war.

So the idea that moved the market today

that Iran is proposing conditions to end the war

is something new is not quite right.

The question is whether Iran is more or less willing

to get to a deal that doesn't involve

some of their more extreme conditions

like, say, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz,

like reparations and war payments from the United States,

which presumably would be non-starters

with the Trump administration.

But at the very least, Damon, we do have confirmation

that the two sides are talking.

I mean, if anybody was in doubt that these

are ploys of some sort in terms of saying

that they are talking or that they're offering this

and that they have exchange messages.

Of course, of course.

Yeah, we don't know exactly how directly, right?

We don't know if there are phone calls,

we don't know certainly if there have been

any face-to-face meetings.

But we do see these signals being sent

by both sides in public and through the Pakistani mediators

that are floating these initial ideas.

We're sort of at the same point we were last week

where these ideas are being floated by both sides,

but they're also ideas that are completely untenable

for each side.

So can China and Pakistan somehow break that?

Now that we've got all of Asia deeply concerned

with the last arrivals of pre-war oil in Asia

and shortages on the offing there, we'll see.

Damon, thank you.

Damon, Javours in Washington, for us.

And even with this rally mic,

we're at Thursday levels, particularly.

Obviously, you're coming out of a deep hole.

And you could sort of see the sequencing of this

to some degree.

We did close on the lows yesterday.

You had these three failed rallies over three days.

We closed pretty much at mid-summer levels of last year.

So the scene was set.

I do think that just at the moment

where the market stopped solely fixating

on de-escalation, upside risk,

you finally got a little bit of a hint.

And it started overnight with the Wall Street Journal report

that the president was willing to essentially declare victory

without reopening the street.

So I do think that, plus the fact, it's quarter end.

You did have new money flushing in.

And I don't want to discount the possibility

that we actually could be positioning

for some kind of a cessation of hostilities.

And oil did come down, even though not very well.

So you had a lot of things fall into place

in an oversold market, but to your point,

not yet to Thursday's highs.

And really, it would have taken like a 5% gain

from yesterday's close to even kind of break

this pattern of a steep slide

and get back to the 20-day moving average,

which sometimes is where oversold rallies stall.

And you mentioned the oil reaction.

And I thought that the fact that the equity rally

was not confirmed by other asset classes

also didn't make any sense.

And sort of gave you the inkling that investors are in it.

They're in this rally.

And yet there is that hesitation.

There isn't knowing that tomorrow

could be completely different happening.

The equity market is definitely a little more emotional

and spring loaded.

Look, the VIX came in like four points.

That's something.

That's not irrelevant.

So I think, again, it's sort of like impressive

without being decisive as the way I characterize the rally.

So for more on today's big market moves,

let's bring in Christina Parks and Evelies.

Well, risk was back on the menu.

You guys talked about it.

And that really showed up in the stock leaders,

the Meg 7, all finished higher by more than two and a half

percent, adding more than $750 billion in market cap value

in just a single session.

This highest line here, biggest gainer,

was met up over 6%.

And video, though, was the biggest boost in the NASDAQ 100

point-wise, finishing above a key $170 technical level.

And that really helped lift Marvel, too,

after news that Nvidia plans to invest $2 billion

into Marvel and also allow Marvel

to play a bigger role in Nvidia's AI system.

That's why Marvel closed 12% higher.

The rally also spilled over to other AI and memory names,

Sandes, Western, Digital were among the day's better

performers, though, they're still lower on the week.

We also saw a solid move back in momentum, growth, crypto,

like Coinbase, micro strategy, they're seeing its proxies.

So really, this is the kind of the session

where investors chase beta and ignore

maybe the defensive corners of the market.

Oil, sensitive names, join the move, airlines,

and cruise lines did rise on hopes for lower oil prices,

and as the market really kept looking for signs

that the conflict could ease.

But on the flip side, the defenses we just talked about,

they kind of lied, Costco, Pepsi, Snackmaker, Mondalees,

all closed lowers, money just rotated out of safety,

and back into those higher growth names

that we started with, guys, back with you.

Christina, thanks, Christina Parts, Nevilleus.

We saw a big reaction in stocks at today's news,

but less so in oil, as we were just talking about,

down only slightly, but still above $100 a barrel.

This is the national average for gas.

It's $4 a gallon, Brian Sullivan joins us now.

I mean, at the very, I don't know,

do you think that we're gonna go back to normal?

It doesn't sound like many oil strategists believe

that that is in the cards.

Well, here's the problem,

and here's the difference between a stock

and something you trade on paper,

and you could trade those oil features right there,

but a physical barrel, Melissa and Mike,

it rides on a ship that takes weeks or months

to get back to whatever state you might call is normal.

I think the oil market is gonna be

a little more sanguine, maybe a little more skeptical

about some of these headlines in the equity market.

You've also got a bunch of stuff I'm sure you'll get to

in the show in the equity market,

coiled spring, valuations, all these things

that when you have this kind of a headline,

the equity market was ready to retire,

the oil market, not the same thing.

Again, we have to wait and see some kind of an outcome,

and even then it's going to take days, weeks or months

for that change, whatever that change may be,

to trickle through those markets.

So yes, the price of oil coming down a little bit today,

or a related stock stand a little bit,

but let's be clear, the price of oil,

still over $100 a barrel, which means it's more expensive now

than it was two weeks ago, despite these headlines,

and kind of layering on the back of what Aiman was talking about.

Iran can say it once sovereignty over the straight-of-war moose.

I don't care what Iran says.

I've been to the straight-of-war moose.

It is an international waters.

Oman controls half of it.

Dubai controls part of it on the other side.

Iran gets a couple miles.

Off their coast.

So Aron can say what it wants, but in no means

can enforce sovereignty over that straight,

because it doesn't simply own it.

Oman, Dubai and others,

loves something to say about that.

Still, slight uptick in ships going through that channel.

A lot of them, of course, are paying Iran right now.

But until guys that channel is fully open,

and until we see the number of ships going through

the straight-of-war moose,

and the bobble manned up straight going into the red sea,

until that number is back to where it was,

the oil market will not be, quote, back to normal.

The question is, how much of this price increase

get a layer onto the bottom line of earnings?

Exxon, Conaco, Chevron, and more.

I did the numbers.

2021 to 2022, guys.

When we saw the Russia-related spike,

earnings for those three companies rose on average,

250% year over year,

250% year over year.

We'll have to wait a couple of weeks

to get those numbers to see,

but that's what the market had been betting on,

at least until today.

Well, let's say things even go back to normal.

I mean, in terms of traffic through the straight,

I mean, there is still going to be, I would imagine,

a new embedded, higher risk premium associated with oil

to transit through the straight,

even if there is a so-called ceasefire,

just because the risk is going to be higher going forward.

And then, of course, you have the damage

to the Nat gas fields,

which is still going to cause shortages of things like helium

and other aspects.

That won't go back right away at all.

Yeah, two different things.

So natural gas, you are right.

The guitar oil field called Ross LaFon.

That's the name, get to hear that name or get to know it.

That could be down for five years, okay?

That's about 5% of total LNG supply in the world.

Most of that is going to Asia.

By the way, the increased prices for LNG

has directly benefited stocks like venture global VG,

Shaneer, ticker LNG,

and some others, Exxon, by the way,

just very quietly, very quietly yesterday,

started supplying their Golden Pass project

with guitar energy outside of Houston.

That's a big one kind of to keep an eye on.

But from oil, you're exactly right.

Listen, what is normal?

Is the new normal in oil was 60 to 65?

But before the war began, Melissa,

is that going back down to 60 or 65?

Exactly zero people that I have talked to.

Maybe you can find somebody.

Zero people have talked to say that is price

is where we're going to be in a couple of months

and that that new normal, maybe 80, 80 to five bucks,

assuming we get some kind of resolution to this war,

so the bottom line revenue earnings profitability

for cash flow will fall to these companies.

The question is, how much and did the market

overstate that amount in this huge bit up

in some of these stocks we've had in the last couple of weeks?

Yeah, so at least somewhat higher for somewhat longer

is likely the good bet.

We'll see how the stocks do respond to that.

Idea, Brian, thank you.

Bon yields did move lower on all this news.

Let's get to Rick Santelli in Chicago

and actually extended a, I guess pretty dramatic

two or three day move Rick.

Absolutely, as a matter of fact,

you and I run on Thursday, Mike,

and we notice the following chart,

which I've added a few days to,

that two-year yield stopped tracking oil.

And really the whole curve did, but two-year did first.

That chart goes back to Thursday.

It gave you definitely an early sign

because isn't that what it's all about?

We know what oil's doing in Sully's right,

but it's the rest of the markets.

Now, if we look at this in a general way,

mid-east market moves, the conflict moves are reversing, okay?

Let's look at two's and 10 since the day

before the conflict and realize

those are a cycle of yield closings

the Friday before the conflict.

What did yields do?

They went up, what are they doing now?

They're going down.

Let's look at gold.

Day before the conflict, what's gold been doing?

Going down.

What is it doing the last couple of days?

It's going up.

Dollar index.

Day before the conflict, what is it doing?

It's going up.

We had a lot of closings above 100.

I remember when we went below 100 last year.

The press was just all over it.

Yes, now it's going down.

These moves are reversing.

Does that mean the conflict's over

and we're going back to normal?

I don't know, but what I do know is

that these market moves are worth money.

And just like Liberation Day,

you ignore them at your own profit peril.

Mike, Melissa, back to you.

Rick, thank you, Rick Santelli.

Well, those unconfirmed reports

out of Iran sparking the market rally today.

And if there is a complete de-escalation

or next guest says the S&P 500 could get back

to 6,900 joining us now

is Monkey Mchata, chief global strategist

at Deutsche Bank.

Thank you, great to have you with us.

Thanks.

So things just go back to normal and go higher.

I mean, that's really the way it can work,

even if oil prices,

if certain commodity prices remain higher for longer.

So first, I would say, 6,900 is not normal.

We were stuck in range for four months,

essentially since October.

What I would say is what we got today

is a circuit breaker.

Circuit breakers can sometimes mark a bottom,

not always.

I'm a little skeptical about the drivers

of the circuit breaker today,

because we've seen this before.

We saw it also in a trade war 1.0 some years ago.

So we'll see what happens,

but I would argue the market is very underweight,

so you're going to get a squeeze.

After all, it is the president of the United States

saying that this is over,

and so you need to fix your positions.

But we've seen this many times before.

Trade war 1.0, the S&P 500,

was in a range for 18 months, okay?

It's 10% wide,

and just draw the S&P 500 and the range,

and you put in all the escalatory and de-escalatory measures,

and you code them green for de-escalatory and red for escalatory.

You will see all the greens are at the bottom

and all the reds are at the top.

So, yeah, it's a circuit breaker.

So I'm skeptical that this is truly it.

I mean, we are talking about potentially

the largest oil shock in history,

not to be over-dramatic,

but that's a big number.

And in terms of coincidences or similarities,

we've also seen this chart which we can all blow apart,

but it's a fact,

I mean, it's just a CPI in the 1970s,

and we're right at the middle there.

We have managed to create an oil shock at precisely that point,

and everybody's forecast is that inflation picks up from here.

I would say on equity,

so there's a lot of discussion on inflation

and what that's gonna do to the bond market,

but I think it's worth a reminder on a day like this

that the response of equity to inflation is,

and was in the 1970s identical to what the 10-year did.

You just need to invert the multiple

and do the earnings yield on the same scale,

and if I didn't tell you which was which,

you wouldn't be able to tell me either.

So that obviously has to remain

in the back of investor's minds.

On the other hand,

and today's action probably speaks to this,

there is a sense out there that there is a kind of threshold

moment where maybe it doesn't spill over

into really completely undermining the fundamental case

or really kind of essentially getting out of control

in terms of how much fundamental damage it does,

and we're somewhere near that moment.

And so I just wonder how much you're reassessing

the real building blocks of what the stock market

should be worried about at this point.

So not reassessing the building block.

I mean, we are reassessing,

but coming to the conclusion of no change.

So if you start from the GDP side,

the kind of oil price shock,

we've had goes, yes, of course,

it's negative for GDP,

but it's within the band of measurement error.

I'm talking about 0.1.2% of GDP.

GDP is pretty volatile.

If you go from there to earnings,

earnings are actually getting marked up

and move up in energy and a couple of stocks in tech

is outdoing all of that.

So I mean, if you really think about the S&P 5.9

as a stock, then earnings are going up.

So we remain basically very constructive

as you get past this.

It is our view that we will get past this.

One of the reasons is this doesn't really change

basically the outlook.

Of course, there's negatives,

and the rest of the world is more vulnerable,

Europe and Asia,

and you gotta remember that S&P 5.0 sales,

the rest of the world are somewhere between 30 to 40%.

That's a big number.

And so we're not really completely insulated

as far as the S&P 500 is concerned.

We are insulated to some extent on the GDP side.

Well, how do you think about that

in terms of a longer impact on Europe and Asia?

I mean, Brian had mentioned the net gas field there

has damaged and the Qatar Energy CEO has said

it could be offline for as long as five years

until it's restored.

And that will be lasting.

Longer lasting pain overseas,

which U.S. companies will feel

through their international earnings?

Yes, I would completely agree with that.

No issue.

And what it's brought up again, basically,

for the third time in five years

is the vulnerability of supply chains.

And so I think, ironically,

it might basically increase the incentive

for companies to develop redundant supply chains

so that you can call and pull on them

even though they're not basically as efficient.

So we've gone from, you know, we used to have them

in the old days and very slow,

then we moved to just in time delivery

and I'm starting to move back in the other direction.

I mean, I don't think from an economic efficiency point of view,

that's a good thing, but it will, in the end, you know,

increase resilience, you know.

Thank you, thanks.

Good to see you, Pinky Chatta.

Thank you.

Nike earnings are out.

Let's get to Gabrielle Han Rouge, who's got the numbers.

Gabrielle.

Hey, Melissa.

So Nike reporting earnings per share of $0.35

on revenue of $11.2 billion.

That's a beat on both the top and bottom lines,

but a bit of a mixed picture regionally.

North America revenues came in basically in line

with expectations at 5.03,

but China is a beat.

Sales in the region came in at 1.62 billion.

That's ahead of expectations of 1.5 billion.

Nike tells us it's confident in North America

and it is making progress in China

when it comes to inventory and assortment.

We're also told that sports wear across the business.

Now, this is a potential growth driver for Nike

remains a headwind.

But they are excited for the World Cup.

And it's a potential, the sales driver.

And one of the main things we're going to be watching tonight

is clarity on the turnaround plan

and when we're going to have to wait for the call

for more details, you know,

and that's when they usually have the guidance.

We do have a statement from CEO Elliot Hill

who said, quote, the pace of the progress

is different across the portfolio.

He has said this again.

He said, quote, the work is not finished,

but the direction is clear.

Melissa, back over to you.

Gabby, thanks. Gabby, off on Rouge.

Meantime, we are watching RH as well,

falling sharply after hours after reporting.

It's a result of company earned $1.53 a share,

but the assortment was there to 222.

Revenue also amused.

Same story for gross margins.

It now sees failure of revenue growth.

A 4 to 8%.

The current consensus was where 8.8% increase.

We're seeing those shares take a tumble

down by 13.5% right now.

All right, well, we've got a news alert on OpenAI.

McKenzie Scholars has the details, Matt.

Hey, Mike.

So OpenAI has just closed a $122 billion round

and an $852 billion post-money valuation

after adding another $12 billion

tranche from venture investors.

Now that follow-on financing is being co-led

by a mix of VCs, including A16Z, DE Shaw,

and CO2 as well as Abu Dhabi's MGX,

with Microsoft also participating.

This, of course, building on the deal last month

with Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank.

OpenAI says that for the first time,

it extended participation to individual investors

through banking channels, raising more than $3 billion

from retail, and we're also learning

that OpenAI shares will now be offered

through several ARC-invest ETFs.

I spoke with CFO Sarah Fryer earlier

and asked whether the company is seeing more momentum

in enterprise sales and the wake of the Pentagon

and Thropic Fight.

She told me the biggest driver

in its B2B business right now is actually

the Amazon partnership with OpenAI,

starting to see meaningful upside from AWS

as a route into enterprise customers.

They're now generating $2 billion in revenue per month

with more than 50 million subscribers

and enterprise on track to make up

about half of total income by the end of the year.

Guys, you know, Mac, these fundraising rounds

and they've gone off for so long

and at such high valuations,

I honestly wonder exactly how much is left

for the public market once it gets there

because they've obviously, as you mentioned,

open it up to retail.

It feels as if people can own a piece of this,

even pre-IPA.

Oh, precisely.

And they're also competing against two other big IPOs,

potentially coming this year.

SpaceX is looking to raise $75 billion as soon as June.

There's a reporting that Anthropic could look to list

in October, but ultimately that $122 billion

isn't automatically being wired over to them.

Think about the Amazon investment.

It's $50 billion, only $15 billion of which is guaranteed.

They have to go public or hit AGI in order to unlock

the next $35 billion Trump.

So even though this money buys them a runway,

they do ultimately still need to hit the public market

in order to unlock all of that funding.

McKenzie, thanks.

McKenzie Stagallas.

Up next with an endless reaction to Nike's numbers

ahead of the company's conference call plus,

we'll have much more in today's big market rally

as we close out the quarter and the month.

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Nike shares are moving lower,

despite the company beating on the top and bottom lines.

Let's bring an Oppenheimer senior retail analyst, Brian Nagel.

He has a buy rating on the stock, a 120 price target stock now,

barely above 50, Brian.

Look, felt like top line, you know,

across the board and also in the different geographies

was about on estimate, the better margins.

Would you draw out of the number so far?

Well, thanks for having me.

Look, I think this is another, you know,

and again, with Nike,

you know, we get more information on the conference call

it starts at five Eastern, but look,

as I look through these results initially,

I think this is another,

would I call kind of building block type quarter

for the company?

Okay, they're very much in the early stages,

I believe, of their turnaround.

I think they're doing a very good job

of getting the business set for better growth going forward.

But look, this quarter is still not a great quarter.

You know, we're still not, these numbers,

even the bright spots in North America

or when they talk about their running time

or when they talk about their running category,

they're still not necessarily Nike-esque.

But again, I do think we see a healthy stabilization

in the building blocks for better results

of the next several quarters.

So North America was pretty much in line,

maybe a slight miss.

China was a beat,

but the commentary in North America was not Nike-esque.

China, the commentary could reflect

some of the uncertainty that we have injected

because of higher oil prices

and the impact on the Chinese consumer, Brian.

I'm just, I wonder, you know,

the stock is down two and a half percent at this point.

What do you think the street is not getting?

What are we looking for?

I mean, what is a concern here?

Well, I mean, look, the concern.

I guess I think broadly speaking

and probably most simplistically, you know,

the concern is just how long is this turnaround going to take?

Okay, so I talked to a lot of our clients on Nike

and, you know, there's optimism out there

that here you have a big, powerful, global brand.

Okay, with new leadership.

Okay, and, you know, at some point,

they're going to get this right.

The biggest concern, though, is, you know,

how long is this going to take?

You know, and what kind of pain, you know,

near-term pain will the company have to sort of say endure

in order to get to that, you know, to that better performance?

So that's why the concern here.

I mean, you've had LA Hill now the CEO for a year,

you know, which again, in the whole scheme of things

is not very long.

But, you know, in Wall Street terms,

we tend to look things that shorter time frames.

And, you know, so the market started to ask,

when do we get those much better aggregate growth numbers?

And I also wonder just exactly how much leverage there is,

you know, in coming years,

even if things start to turn to get earnings back

to what we got used to not that long ago, right?

I mean, I think the estimate for the current fiscal year

is where they earned 10 years ago.

Yeah, you know, that's a great question.

So, I mean, we've done a lot of work around this.

We think, you know, if we're looking at, in our opinion,

again, we're very much longer-term goals on this stock.

But we think that these current numbers

very much underappreciate the longer-term earnings power of Nike.

And there's a lot of what I consider to be still

transitory factors happening here.

You know, the company has intentionally taken down

the side, you know, their lifestyle business in size.

They've not, you know, they really have not yet mitigated

or offset tariffs.

You've seen them clear out even toward within the global marketplace.

And I'm sure they're going to talk about,

some of the more specific actions they're taking in China now.

There's costs associated with all of this.

So, as we're looking at the earnings today,

you know, these earnings are very much reflecting these,

you know, these costs.

I think, you know, again, we get past this.

You get the new product innovation,

the new, the reestablished relationships

with their key wholesale partners.

You're going to see earnings rebound, you know,

and you can get to be what we, you know,

like what we saw historically from Nike.

But, look, right now, the real key is,

I mean, if you're looking at the earnings now,

that's not really reflective, at least in my mind,

of the true underlying earnings power of this company.

Yep. Well, you and the street are bullish on this one.

Price target that you have is 120.

Brian, great to see you.

Thank you for your analysis.

Thank you.

We are seeing the stock pretty much after our session

lows at this point down more than 3%.

For sure.

All right, stocks having their biggest one-day rally

in nearly a year,

but could they turn right back around

if the next piece of news on Iran is bad?

Much more on the markets.

Come here.

And as we head to a break,

here's a look at the Mag 7,

this quarter, the group shaved more than $2 trillion

in market cap over that time.

Microsoft, Tesla and Meta,

all down more than 13%.

Microsoft, the biggest loser of all,

off 23%.

Amazon, Alphabet and Vidya and Apple,

down between 10% and 6% for the quarter,

all 7 names, big close higher today.

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Welcome back to Closing Bell.

Over time, live from the Nasdaq Market site.

Stocks jumping today, closing near the highs on hopes

for the war in Iran, is nearing an end.

The S&P, up about 3%, it was 4% for the Nasdaq.

This wraps up a lousy month for the major averages.

Losses of about 5% across the board.

We have not seen a month that bad since last March.

Today also wrapping up the first quarter, of course,

the Nasdaq down 7%, but the Russell actually in the green

so far this year.

A big theme today, the bounce back in some heart-hit areas.

These include the Mag-7 Lagerd, such as Meta and Microsoft.

In video, had a 5% gain, roughly $200 billion in market cap gained.

The memory, optical and AI buildout names, also reversing yesterday's losses.

Two sectors did finish in the red.

Energy, which is still up 10% in March.

And the safety sectors, utilities and staples were basically flat.

Time now for our CNBC News Update, which you'll be abortion.

Hi, Julia.

Hi, Melissa.

A federal judge has ordered construction to be stopped on President Trump's new White House Ballroom.

In his order, the judge said construction must stop until Congress approves the project.

Adding that the president is the steward of the White House for future generations and not the owner.

The massive ballroom is being built at the former site of the East Wing

and has faced criticism from preservationists since construction began last year.

TSA absences fell sharply Monday after workers received paid checks

for the first time in over a month.

DHS said only 8.6% of TSA agents called out compared to more than 12% on Friday.

Still, the partial government shutdown drags on and Congress has not reached a deal on TSA funding.

And Delta Airlines has tapped Amazon Leo to provide faster internet service

on hundreds of jets starting in 2028.

Delta says that Amazon satellite Wi-Fi will initially be available on 500 domestic aircraft.

Amazon is working to build out its fleet of low-Earth orbit satellites

with 200 in orbit right now and hundreds more ready to be launched.

Back over to you.

Julia, thanks, Julia Borson.

Stocks having their best day since last May, but is this bounce back durable?

We'll take a look at what the options market is saying.

And take a look at the moves and gold this month since the war began.

The commodity is down 12% for the month.

It's first negative month in nine and it's worst monthly declines in June 2013.

It was up for the quarter. It's fifth straight positive quarter.

Welcome back to Closing Bell.

Over time, the options market is suggesting today's rally.

Maybe overdone with the Seaboss saying they're seeing mostly profit taking

with investors selling out of existing bullish positions.

So what is that telling us about whether this rally can last?

Let's bring in Mandy Shoe.

Seaboss global markets head of derivatives market intelligence.

Good to see you.

Good to be here.

So tell us about this setup before we got this rally.

What people were doing, what it indicates about whether it was short covering

or a chase or anything like that.

Yeah, sure. I'd say the theme in the options market over the past week

has been actually just fading large moves in both directions.

So last Thursday and Friday when we got that big sell off.

What we saw was actually mostly monetization of existing hedges.

So people who had hedge going into the move selling out.

And actually people adding to upside calls playing for rebound,

the so-called taco trade, right?

And then on a move like today, one big, big update in the market,

the offices.

So people come in, those who had bought upside calls selling out of it.

Others adding on to new, adding new downside protection.

Basically giving the view that upside from here is likely to be limited.

So they're profit taking.

What are the views of volatility going out?

Whether it be equity, equities, bonds or oil?

Yeah, so the positioning in the options market has obviously flopped quite a bit.

And we're seeing big moves in the VIX.

But if you look in the oil options market actually,

one of the things we've been consistently highlighting is just that positioning there

has been remarkably consistent this entire time.

That most of the hedging, the flows that we've seen in the oil options market

is people positioning for further upside in oil.

So called demand being very, very strong relative to down that put demand.

And this being the case, not just for short data options,

which is where typically people go to play these headlines,

but also longer data options.

So if you look at like six month options in oil,

that's also inverted, meaning calls are trading at a premium to put.

Extremely rare.

So over the past 20 years,

happened only three times in the past, 2008,

when oil went to $140, 2011 Arab Spring,

and 2022 during the Russia Ukraine crisis.

Both, all three times, oil spent considerable amount of time being very, very elevated.

So the oil options market saying this disruption is likely to be rather prolonged.

A lot of the work that I kind of review every day,

people kind of doing this array of indicators,

pointed to the overall pull call ratios coming into this week

as not necessarily showing extremes of the sort that would be

a really clear contrarian signal that the market was bottoming.

Where does that sit?

Sure.

Yeah, so pull call ratio is a very common indicator.

I would say maybe it's a little bit less reliable of an indicator

because it doesn't tell you the direction of the trade.

Whether people were selling the calls or buying the calls.

Exactly.

So the indicator that we look at, which is skew,

actually measures the price of the puts versus the price of calls.

But that is consistent with the put call ratio declining.

So coming into this week,

we were seeing lesser demand for downside protection.

More demand for upside calls, like I mentioned.

I do think in the equity market there is still this very strong belief

that there is a Trump put in the market.

And that if we do get a severe sell off,

there's likely to be a policy reversal,

capitulation, the so-called taco trade.

That's what we saw at the end of last week.

Now, whether we're going to get it this time,

whether it would actually be effective given

geopolitical war is very different from a trade war.

That's to be seen.

But certainly in the positioning, the option market

indicates that people still believe there is a Trump put in the market.

And anytime we get a sell off,

you do see that bullish flow coming in.

Just reading in the notes that struck me as very interesting

that since the war began,

that there's been a collapse in volatility in tech and AI

as people more focused on geopolitical.

That seems like an opportunity potentially for investors

who are in that trade right now.

Yeah, so relative to what was happening February,

the February was all about the AI trade.

And what we saw in February was the volatility of tech names.

Or if you look at QQQ, the ETF,

the volatility of QQQ relative to SPX blow out to a one-year high.

Because that is where all the risk was concentrated.

And the market was the AI trade.

Since then, that has gone from a one-year high to a near a one-year low.

As people look away from the AI trade to these macro risks.

So what we've seen in the market is stocks now becoming more correlated.

So when AI was a theme, we saw a lot of dispersion.

People trying to figure out the winners and losers of AI trade.

Now it's all about the macroeconomic outlook.

What's the outlook for inflation, for growth,

stocks and sectors, trading much more correlated together.

And that is helping to put upward pressure on the VIX.

And just as a quick note,

you mentioned that the day-to-day activity seems to be mostly

kind of fading whatever that daily move is.

Is that pretty much the routine when you look at the options flow?

I always feel like the kind of zero-data expiration options,

the heavy activity in that,

is mostly just kind of mean reversion trade throughout the day.

So specifically zero-data, we see pretty balanced in terms of people chasing momentum,

playing for reversal, people taking directional views or income.

But I would say this fading of the moves,

that's more of a recent phenomenon.

So what we see actually in February going into the beginning of March,

was actually a lot of hedging demand,

even when market was going down.

This recent reversal, as we've kind of made new lows,

I think that's more of a newer development.

Mandy, good to see you.

Thank you, Mandy.

Thank you.

The issue of the SIBO.

Up next, fast one.

His guide, Adam, will be here to tell us whether you should believe in today's bounce

and how he is trading the rally.

And take a look at the software ETF IGV,

ending the day higher by more than 3%.

The rally, though, not making a huge dent in the big losses for the quarter

with the ETF down 24%.

All but 11 names closed lower, led by Atlassian,

Pagerduty, Unity, D-Wave Quantum, and Intapp,

which were all down more than 43%.

Welcome back to overtime.

Shares of McCormick and Unilever, under pressure,

after the spice maker announced it is merging with Unilever's food business,

which includes brands such as helmets, mayonnaise, and nor soup mixes.

Under terms of the deal, Unilever will receive nearly $16 billion in cash

and Unilever shareholders will control about 65% of the new company.

That news overshadowing McCormick's first quarter earnings,

which beat Wall Street's top and bottom line estimates.

It seems like we're in a phase of kind of like mopping up

some of the consumables businesses out there

that have come on hard times, valuations or low.

Companies are looking to de-merge.

I guess maybe this is the old best foods.

I don't even know, but had helmets, mayonnaise, and there.

That's right.

Skippy peanut butter, maybe.

But, you know, we see this brown forming in play potentially,

and of course, we were talking about Estee Lauder the other day as well.

And the market doesn't really like it.

It doesn't seem to see a lot of value being created.

I mean, it's under assault.

Ultra-process foods are no longer in.

I mean, consumers under pressure, you're not buying the brand name.

For sure.

And also people love the McCormick story,

because it was kind of clean with spices and seasonings.

And it was a very particular type of...

COVID, it was like you couldn't get coriander.

That's not sure.

Yeah, sure it is.

It's true.

They sent coriander to guys here.

You couldn't get coriander.

You couldn't get coriander.

Where there are lines on the streets for coriander.

Because everybody was eating in and everybody was looking at home.

Oh my god.

And you couldn't get it.

Do you remember, they sent us a box of spices?

That I remember.

Because things were insured.

I had a coriander shortage.

You've heard it all.

Anyway.

Well, mayonnaise is gross.

I'm just putting it out there now.

And there are different flavors of mayonnaise.

Which is even worse.

No, I mean...

Okay.

It's a pull, right?

Everybody has.

Anyway, please.

Sorry.

Let's talk more about today's rally guy.

What'd you make of it?

I'm sure Mike has thoughts.

But look, quarter and month and I get it.

I think the market was looking for an excuse to rally.

It got it in the form of whatever we heard today.

I don't know if it's been validated or not.

It doesn't matter.

But here's what should be concerning, I think.

The VIX is still either side of 25,

which over the last year or so, that's still elevated.

Energy stocks did not collapse at all.

And the underlying commodity really didn't sell off all that much as well.

I don't know.

I don't know what to make of it.

I think, again, the market was looking for an excuse.

And in markets like we have now,

the most violent rallies take place in these types of markets.

So, label me a bit of a skeptic right now.

Yeah, I mean, if you came into this week,

saying this in the middle of the day,

the playbook said we're in a sell rallies market.

The burden of proof is on the bulls.

Anytime you get it, you know,

it's got to clear these hurdles.

It's not even above any of the big kind of trend lines.

On the other hand, you get a move like today.

And all of a sudden has to force people to think.

Sometimes you get a V-bottom.

Sometimes the market knows something's real before.

It seems like we can believe it.

And people say, you know what?

It was April of last year.

Yeah.

Where we had that huge down draft

that lasted all of maybe three or four days.

And if you tried to fade that,

it was a fool's error.

And it had a huge rip one day,

and then it gave two thirds of it back.

A little bit back.

It'll chop you up along the way.

Also, we were way more stretched in the down set,

which I always say, fine,

that means we're not going to go up 40% in six months.

Maybe like we did then at the from the law.

It's tough call.

You know, I still look at the Vixen and say,

all right, the Vix is telling a story.

Again, the commodities didn't sell off in a meaningful way.

And I think a little bit different.

This was sort of setting up pre-war.

We're five weeks into this war,

or whatever they're calling it now.

But some of the foundational stuff

was starting to show cracks before.

That hasn't gone away.

We don't talk about it as much,

because of what's going on in the Middle East.

But that has not abated at all.

So you might be able to solve this problem, hopefully,

but the problems that existed are still there.

I'm curious for V-bottom.

You want to see volume.

But do you also want me to see that sort of V reaction

when it comes to the other asset classes?

Do you need to see that?

Yes, and theory.

You should want to see it synchronized, yeah.

Right.

Oh, yeah.

You didn't get that.

Oh, and I'm just totally not saying

you can make the call one way or the other right now.

I think it just puts people on alert.

Do I want to fight it here at this level,

two and a half percent off of a six month low?

I mean, that might not be the battle you want to,

you know, pick right there.

It was a member in the Wizard of Oz.

I saw it in the first run, 1939.

Yeah.

But remember that coming out of the woods

and all the munchkins are singing your out of the woods

and they're all happy and they're running to the emerald city there.

But remember the wicked witch,

she put like little poison on the poppies and they all fell asleep.

So let's not get ahead of ourself.

We haven't made it to the emerald city yet.

Or the poppies.

Well, maybe we're in the midst of the poppies right now.

Poppies, remember that whole thing?

No, no, no.

This is all a dream, then.

Is this a wicked thing?

Well, Wizard of Oz, can I tell you something?

Are we real?

Was it a dream?

Was it a dream?

Real life.

Real life isn't black and white.

I think we all know that.

I agree with that.

See you later, Guy.

I'll be here.

We'll see the rest of the crew, of course, at the top of the hour.

We joined by Barkley's head of equity strategy, Vinyu Krishna,

to get his retake on today's rally.

All right, up next.

Find out which stocks are driving the comeback and industrials today

and the key earnings and an economic data that you need on your radar tomorrow,

closing bell overtime live from the Nasdaq Market site.

We'll be right back.

Welcome back to overtime.

Industrials are the worst performing sector this month,

but they help lead today's rally.

Sima Modi has some details.

Hi, Sima.

Hey, Mike.

As Malia's research analyst note, absent the war,

the industrials were entering a much needed upcycle

with manufacturing activity picking up.

And caterpillar has really been the poster child of this growth

with AI, feeling its power, Jen, and oil and gas business,

which makes up roughly 30% of its bottom line.

Its engines are used across drilling rigs in the Middle East.

It's also doubling capacity.

Gehe Vernova, which makes gas turbines and energy equipment

used increasingly by the hyperscalers that are building data centers,

also such it shares climb nearly 7% on the day,

engine maker Cummins rebounding as well.

As did the AI infrastructure names,

like Eaton, Verde, Parker Hanuffin,

that make the wiring and cooling equipment

that goes inside data centers.

There was a report earlier today that Iran could aim to take aim

at the biggest tech companies in the US,

raising concerns about their infrastructure overseas.

But the latest headlines suggest that risk has been reduced

for now, guys.

Seema, thanks. Seema Modi.

And let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today.

We'll get fresh reads on how food companies are fairing

when Konag, rural and Weston and Kalmain Foods report earnings.

And on the economic front, we'll get February retail sales

and the March ADP jobs reports.

Of course, those are snapshots in time.

A lot of things have changed at this point.

The earnings will be interesting.

But of course, how the markets tomorrow still digest

the route that we saw today is going to be very telling.

Without a doubt.

I mean, you definitely had some unusual accelerants in today's rally.

I think a lot of people pointing to that kind of quarter

and a lot of hedges coming off and things like that.

And as I mentioned, you didn't really clear a lot of the upside hurdles

that people would have put out there.

But it is interesting.

And we've been so susceptible to overnight news flow for obvious reasons.

So we'll see how that goes and obviously how oil trades into the morning.

It's going to do it now for over time.

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