Ceasefire Countdown?🔥Crypto Market Update

0:00The ceasefire countdown everybody is watching and waiting is this going to take longer or shorter and how is this affecting the markets today will break it down for you let's get into it I do want to thank our sponsor and that is I trust capital in times like this this is where things are volatile you should be looking at diversifying your assets one of the way to do that is in a crypto IRA you can do that just by joining I trust capital getting in over there and of course buy and sell crypto as well as golden silver inside your IRA no fees on the monthly you only do it for your own transactions that you make inside the account so check it out I want to lead off today's show with a clip from Fox and this is some new developments that are starting to hurt the market and we will most likely see more pain coming take a look There are new developments in the war and they are hurting the market three ships attacked in the Gulf two of them tankers set ablaze energy secretary right was asked if the streets of for moves could be opened by the end of this month he said he was hopeful

1:04Goldman Sachs says if the closer stretch into April oil could get close to $150 a barrel the Iranians have threatened to attack any banks in the Gulf states which do business with Israel or America Goldman Sachs has told some workers in the area work from home and here's the impact on the markets first of all oil it hit $100 a barrel before backing off but it's still well above $90 a barrel 92 93 right now that's up 6% gas going up some more the average for regular is now 359 getting close to 360 all right so there you have it biggest issues I think here are what we're seeing inside the GCC and you look at that the banks in the Gulf now are evacuating just like you said their offices this will most likely start to roll over into other businesses so when you look at the market and the economy within the GCC remember you've got to buy in there Qatar and many allies that are lined up within their including Saudi Arabia

2:06all of which are now attack zones for American and Israel interest this of course continues to put more escalation into the market and also it it does affect some of the key things that start to move throughout the Gulf states and his statement is still around three to four weeks and if you look at the bottom when you look at this we don't want to leave too early we've got to finish the job and of course right now the stocks are continuing to fall I think the key here will be how the markets energy starts to impact and then some of the other things that could be starting to get affected here which I'll cover in a second because there are some other things that were not being affected but now they are and it causes effects on the market that in most cases are going to hit inflation they're going to hit market price and we're also going to see this in the stocks and bonds area as well as crypto so there's a lot kind of boiling up right now as you look at the U.S. and Iran ceasefire potential it is move heavily into June with 61% there on polymarket volume holding fairly well on those top two

3:11and this isn't when I say volume holding fairly well meeting these are the two potential dates that we could see an end to all of this right now pushing into May for sure so let me know in the comments down below do you think this goes all the way into May or June what month do you think this would start to end and how this maybe goes into a retracement in the markets and or recovery because right now we are looking at some problems one of the things that is a problem is the price of oil another 10% up on the day rising to almost a hundred bucks a barrel likelihood as we will see a hundred dollar barrel pricing in a very short period of time this also puts more pressure I think on Trump because this affects everyday Americans probably the most other than groceries and now we may be seeing that as well I want to go to a clip real quick because this will get into Trump's thinking of where we are right now take a look we're doing a great job there's never been a better year for a president I mean I've been rated there has never been a better year for a president

4:16first year than what we had that includes the stoppage of eight wars with a ninth to come and what we've done the economy is roaring it's phenomenal that's why I'm here this is an excursion a little excursion and I think it's only that and in that little time that short period of time we've taken care of business we took care of a country that was very dangerous very bad would have had a nuclear weapon of a war and for me and the B2 bombers and what we did not very long ago they would have had a nuclear weapon and we would have had levels of problem that nobody has ever seen before all right so a couple of things with that clip is I'm wondering if Trump is starting to get bad intel bad information from all around him and I'm not talking about just issues within what's going on in the Middle East but economically within the polls and what he thinks has been the greatest year ever I think he is starting to get a whole slew of bad information

5:20it's starting to affect I think many of the judgment calls he's making and remember Trump operates on judgment calls that's the way he gets going if you look at the cost of what it's costing the United States right now where you're rolling up on 18 billion and it is about a billion dollars a day when you look at it loss of life is already significant and of course you've got one of the biggest issues which I think is the fact that this is having a rolling effect on not only the loss of life but the loss of Americans livelihoods what's going to be affected in terms of their savings their mutual funds all their 401k's etc that are going to be hit on this because of the valuation that the market is yet to respond to and as you can see right here oil nearly four bucks a gallon a trip stat 140 American troops wounded American tankers being bumped this is not looking good Epstein file still and and of course Trump's out there party in with Jake Paul I just don't get it I would think that right now we should be focused in on what's happening in the Middle East

6:24figure out a way to dampen the issue here economically in the United States because this will continue to be a big deal and Anthony scary moochie kind of hits it right here Trump now gaslighting about gas prices saying that higher gas prices are good for America after previously gaslighting about lower gas prices he is now lost independence and the principled right now that we just have to figure out how to get and whether through more years of this as damage can start to grow and I think that is right he is starting to lose some of the principled right people that look at this administration and say listen I voted him in for a certain few things he has gone way above what we anticipated and now we have entered in the no more worse phase which is what's happening now and it's getting worse by the day and of course you've got a ran saying listen you should be ready for two hundred dollars a barrel and if it gets to that point I can assure you you're going to look at eight dollar gallon gas

7:25and at that point the American people are absolutely going to draw the line and I'm not saying they shouldn't be drawn the line if well the other thing they would draw the line as if we've seen in ground trips things of that nature but I think the other thing is economically you have to consider all the impacts that are now starting to get hit here in the United States and of course now the question is is how much is too much to absorb take a look at this clip this level of activity and this level of shipping traffic that we've seen disappear from the straight or just too large a a loss from the market so that market that was flexing it you know the longer this goes on it's going to flex until it actually snaps and I just want to put that number in perspective that 15 to 20 million barrels a day to replace that that's roughly the same amount of demand we lost at the peak of COVID in 2020 in March and April so the question is if the and again all of this is predicate the straight remains closed and we need to destroy demand at that level we need a price that will effectively

8:29simulate and stimulate COVID level demand destruction without a pandemic and for me at least that would be an exceptionally high price so there you go an exceptionally high price could be the key going forward quickly other things that are being affected right now is what we're dealing with with farmers that's right now farmers are being affected first for the first time this is rolling into the issue around fertilizer let me play this clip for you it explains a little bit more of the impact on farmers take a look they've been some predictions that fertilizer will go up another hundred dollars of tune on top of losing money as it is it's really sad that the farming has got to the point where we're losing money to even to even be doing it and and then with things going on like it is it's so much uncertainty we're used to dealing with markets going up and down but when we see such a large increase and there's such a short span of time is what really what really makes it harder harder to deal with we have a lot on the line from day to day and at nighttime sometimes it can be hard to sleep

9:32a lot of guys have just said I'm done we're going to quit they're hanging it up they're sales everywhere lots and lots of farm sales financially it's causing a lot of mental health problems as well this is a big issue because this is the core of the voter base for Trump but also it doesn't really matter in the voter base but it how they would support the administration for the next republicans or possibly the republicans in the midterms you look at this though right now this energy and fertilizer cost jack that's happening right now could and most likely will push grocery prices higher so now you've got higher energy and higher grocery that only leads to one thing guys and that is higher inflation higher inflation of course continues to put more pressure on the Fed that puts more pressure on the markets and this only gets worse if this continues this of course is the Iranian supreme leader the new one that has come in and one thing that he highlighted right here he's more hard line than his father

10:32is demands from the US are extensive and he is ready one could say that he prefers a prolonged war and that's the concern I have is that this becomes a much more longer war than anyone anticipates and if the market sees that kind of issue playing out that could be the catalyst that we could see where we start to see things go are really really awry and this of course is another factor is you got to look at what's going on in Cuba Cuba of course now even being looked at propped up by China this of course is a US strike on Cuba this was it pretty much nothing right here on February 27th and then obviously after the Iranian conflict here we are hovering at over 40% now by the end of this year that Cuba could be in line for more US intervention there by the way this is coming in from Kobe EC you guys should be following these guys they're doing a fantastic job on keeping the updates going

11:33and then it'll go into in depth they're really good headline breakers but this is a good example right here of China and Cuba have now agreed to boost bilateral ties this is only six days after Trump said Cuba will fall pretty soon so these are the kind of things that don't look good because it's these little nuances that become much bigger then they become problems and then when those problems faster they become issues not only in the market but also in the fact of culture here in the United States so it starts to draw the line for sure and the other thing you got to look at is where does it draw the line well it draws the line on a lot of things like we have seen in the past from previous administrations that I thought was gone in this administration but it's not it it's right here success goes out spends 93 billion in one month making the highest monthly expense since 2008 and then extravagant spending there I mean these are the kind of things that you are going to start to see heads roll

12:37because Trump will be able to divert blame on to many of these you've already seen it with Kristi Nome she's been outed Pambondi is going to be next who would be next after that could it be a headset could it be someone else maybe I think that if we continue to see the problem with the clarity act it's going to be David Sacks that starts to get pumped and you've got Kristi Nome of course she is out already Pambondi this is the one we think is most likely going to be in a position of exiting door left because of her inability there in her job as well so and again it gets to the point that I'm getting at which is a lot of the cabinet members that Trump has been placed in may have looked like they were on par in the beginning now we're starting to see their work record and how they're doing it this is going to get ugly quickly so big problems JB Morgan come in and say hey just long energy socks because right now unless they get this straight open

13:37this is going to be a fight for energy and we are in the middle of it right now and then of course the stock market if you compare this and I'll show you the chart real quick this is the S&P 500 let's go up here the last time we saw a fall was right there on the Trump dump and that was a 20% fall into the market market of course recovered to that Trump could have claimed victory easily with where we were at over almost 7000 now here we are starting to roll over the top from right there which was right around 7000 here we are bumping down at 6600 down 5% likelihood on this is a 20% pullback would be the thing that most likely will happen if we get another black swan or one of those events that start to cause more concern in the market or the elongated conflict in Iran that will be the one that I think continues this market downward so even though that is happening

14:38I think crypto has in and been in just a weight and sea fatigued phase right now crypto fear and greed setting at 28 quite a bit higher than we were but definitely at 28 which is not significantly better than what we have seen in past bear markets the real question is is how long is this going to last are we going to see any light in the tunnel because most people would say well if all these bad things are happening there is possibly going to be a flight to safety and digital assets some people might say well that or gold but gold has not been moving in fact gold is also stalled out Bitcoin has stalled out right at 70k we saw a little bit of movement this week but again these are the problems when people are just paralyzed they don't know what to do because of the inability to see any light at the end of the tunnel and that's the problem that we're dealing with though is that BlackRock just launched their Ethereum Staking ETF

15:38I don't know if this is good timing and bad timing but the point is could be a rotation into ETH this has been a significant move because now if we're trying to outpace inflation assets are going to be the only way but the problem there is if assets continue to drop because of these global and economic problems you're dealing with the counterbalance to each and every one of those issues which is why I think we're seeing less gold purchases right now and more money going into stable coins and of course cash 1.8 trillion in private credit market is witnessing an exodus of investors this is another factor that is another big issue that could cause a major move in the market I'll highlight one of the things in this article right here it says this week's major players BlackRock Blackstone faced Russian withdrawals from investors spooked by the chaos gets back to my point 26 billion HPS corporate lending fund out then you look at these aren't isolated incidents private credit has

16:38boomed because it offered retail investors access to higher yields from loans to mid-sized firms now you've got all these companies starting to either default and or have problems in renewing loans and this is where we're dealing now those loans are long term typically three to seven and tied assets that aren't easily or quick to sell so this is the problem that you have with private credit which will only put more pressure on the S&P 500 so there you go clarity act signed into law we were setting it around 60% after the banking summit that we aired yesterday and showed what the banks were really up to it has dropped down to now a 54% probability almost a coin flip right now on polymarket as you can kind of see what's going on right here and the reason is this banks are clearly coming after not just stablecoin yields they're coming after everything if you go back and watch that video that we did yesterday it is a breakdown

17:39of everything they won including DeFi self-custy could easily be thrown into this mix what we're going to see is much more than what we're seeing right now and it was kind of showcased in that summit that we did yesterday the change dot org petition yesterday and we're nearing 6,000 I think I haven't refreshes in a little bit so yeah nearing 6,000 signatures right here we're trying to get this up to more so that we can at least start presenting this to some of our lawmakers and show just how important this is so make sure you guys use the link we'll try to leave one down below or you can follow me on on Twitter I usually drop it there it's just app pulp one last point I want to get at this of course is JP Morgan just been sued by investors for allegedly participating in a $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme and this was of course revealed in the lawsuit and a lot of it generated around this thing called Goliath Ventures right here and this guy was arrested

18:40so they're CEO but investors say that JP Morgan knew not suspected but knew what was going on this will be a big deal if this goes through so it's just more issues of these banks continue to pressure on the crypto market we've seen it all around now we're seeing pressure from global and economic issues that are happening from what we're seeing obviously with Iran but the problems are getting worse by the day guys as we start to try to figure out how to navigate this market we're going to be coming to you with a wrap up this week so stick around for that one if you like this video hit like and subscribe drop a comment down below and also join our free private member group the link is in the description