Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 9th, 2026

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1:07With Bolly from Ishars, you get access to both monthly income and growth potential in one simple ETF. It's the best of both worlds. Discover Bolly. Ishars' large-cap premium income active ETF. Ishars. The market is yours. Visit www.Ishars.com to view perspectives for investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. Risks include principal loss in the use of derivatives, which could increase risk and volatility. Monthly income is not guaranteed, prepared by BlackRock Investments LLC. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio News This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Horton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

2:09Here's the view on Wall Street. Stocks falling, crude jumping above $100 a barrel for the first time since 22. Sarah Hunt of Alpine Sex and Words Write in the positives that investors were looking for a hard-to-hang once had on, given the oil price surge. Sarah joins us now for more. Sarah Good morning. Good morning. I think it changes a lot of things. I think it's really, as we've all spoken about many times, it's going to depend on how long this lasts. The Ford curve does not seem to think that this is a permanent state. And I think that what it changes is, one, the possibility of an economic slowdown or even going into recession, because higher energy prices can often cause that kind of an economic shock. And what happens on the earnings front, both to margins and to spending and to everything else. Right now, this is a near-term problem. If it looks like it's going longer, it's going to change some of the math that everyone's been looking for for the next couple of years in terms of earnings. Consumer facing names getting beaten up, airlines, cruise lines, all get an absolutely hammered as crude continues to tick up. Are we at the point of demand destruction now? I think it's a little early for demand destruction. I think that there's some obvious things that are going to happen as you see prices move

3:11very higher in the short term. But I think from a longer term perspective, it takes longer than a couple of weeks of higher prices. Do we get a couple of months of higher prices? That's definitely going to hurt it. And there on the margins, people are going to travel less. People are worried about traveling to begin with. It's because there's something going on in a big part of the world that's really important. So I think you're definitely going to see some pullback and activity. And that is in and of itself slowing things down. Sarah, have you been reluctant to sell stocks? Any stocks in response to this, given the fact that in the past, geopolitics is something that has always been a short term event for markets? I think this is, yes, I would say I wouldn't say I'm afraid to sell anything, but it's more that is this something that is really a permanent change in what's your time horizon. If I needed, you know, I tell people all the time, if you need money in the very short term, you should have it liquid. If you're in there for the long term, you're going to see a lot of volatility. We knew coming into this year was going to be volatile. We didn't know why and how volatile it would be so quickly, but you expect after a couple of years, especially if such strong equity performance, that you'll see more volatility. The question is really going to be whether or not this sticks or whether or not this is

4:11something that markets continue to see through and look through. And I think that there are other things going on in the background that are also potentially problematic. So it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out and not interesting in a good way. Of course, what's going on with private credit, we see cracks in the US economy. I'm just wondering, is there an inflection point, something that you're looking for that would change your view, that would make you materially shift your longer term outlook for 2026? I think if this continues to go on without figuring out what the off ramps are, I think that, you know, it was a good move to say that, well, globally, the G7 will release some energy because prices spike so high, that's not going to solve the problem. The problem needs to be solved by having some resolution and having tankers be able to get through the straight-of-one moves. Until we see some path for that, I think you're going to start to see people get more and more worried about those longer term, both earnings estimates and just general economic conditions and the market. Right now, we're still in early days. If that really extends, I think that's really going to be the tipping point. Some of that depends on what your starting point is, what your assessment of current conditions

5:14actually is. And we've got very different views on that. Some people think we're okay. In fact, the Federal Reserve, the top of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell would insist that things are stable. They're okay. Others would say things are fragile. Where'd you come down on that? One of the other. I think that they are a little bit more fragile than they look. I think that you've seen some disruptions in the labor market. You certainly hear a lot of rumblings in the labor market about what's going to happen because of AI in different sectors. There's a lot of spending that's coming out of that, though. So there are offsets to that. I think, generally speaking, absent this shock, the economy was doing fairly well. There were definite pockets of weakness, and you could see that in rotation in sectors in the market. You could see major rotation sectors. The headline indices are still fairly close to all time highs, but there's been some major devastation in different sectors along the way. This is going to be one of those situations where, depending on how long it lasts, and this is, you know, it's just going to keep saying that, we don't know yet what's going to happen. But on the margin, nothing good comes out of spiking oil prices this high and shutting in oil infrastructure. Well, let's pick a sector. Financials. That private credit, Blackstone, then BlackRock going into the weekend with a bit of trouble

6:18there. Then we've seen Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs start to underperform as well. This is going through the whole sector now, and not just the private market players. What do you think that's signaling? I think that's signaling some concern about weakness ahead and some concern about what are, if you're going to have potential issues in both equity and bond markets, but you also have this private credit thing is, this would be the top of the story if we weren't going on. This would be the top story. I think if we weren't going through what we're going through right now with Iran, because this is one of those, it started out small, and now you're seeing a couple of other things, then a couple of other things, and that's the kind of things that market don't like. It's that uncertainty that markets don't like, and investors don't like, when everyone has been sort of trying to reassure everyone that it's all OK, and then you start to see things that make it look a little less OK. So I think that would be a much bigger headline if we weren't in the middle of this, and that would be something that would be starting to worry markets going forward. Yeah, the idea that panic and sort of retail investors trying to pull their money and not getting it all back is very concerning to people. Can you put these two stories together of the oil price shock and credit concerns tied

7:19to private credit, the idea that some kind of increase in oil and decrease in consumer spending power could catalyze the fears that people see and credit sooner than maybe otherwise would take place? Well, it's interesting because I think those fears were catalyzing on the back of expectations of problems in certain sectors, like the software sector specifically, but whether or not the reality on the ground is that they were as bad as it looked. I think the problem is more that everybody makes a decision in one direction. I don't know that the higher oil prices are going to make that worse, because I don't think that the credits the people are worried about are ones that are so tied to the consumer. And I think that would be the link that I'm not sure we see yet, but it doesn't mean that it isn't there, and certainly people are going to start looking for that. Stay with us, Moulin Plexivan is coming up off to this. When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving. Did you know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with

8:19great liquidity? In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessons after 4 p.m. until the next morning. But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night. Learn more at cmegroup.com slash equity futures. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but times too tight for more promises. Now let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smart to business. IBM. Just a travel pass makes traveling more rewarding, designed to help you get more out of every stay. Sign up at S&SDA.com to enjoy instant savings, bonus points and valuable perks like early check-in, late checkout, room upgrades, and free stays over time.

9:21With S&SDA travel pass, every stay brings you closer to your next reward. Choose from more than 1,100 hotels across 13 distinctive brands and unlock the best available rates when you book direct with S&SDA travel pass. For today, room tomorrow. Join now at S&SDA.com. Terms and conditions apply. Absolutely. I mean, this could definitely be their risk here for the United States is obviously that this becomes a much more protracted war. Or it also creates civil war and just chaos within Iran and then within the larger Middle East region. So there are definitely a lot of risks to the administration here.

10:22But I do think that the administration is really focused on this fortified week timeline. We do think that they think that they have a plan to accelerate attacks on Iran to try to get to their specific goals, which is getting rid of the weapons that could be targeted at the United States and Israel, getting annihilating the army of, I'm sorry, the Navy of Iran and trying to then also prevent them from going after ships in the state of Hormuz. And also maybe potentially trying to get some sort of regime change or at least governance changes going forward. So do you think there's obviously some risks but the administration probably is looking at this still being a fortified week timeline? Well, obviously see if that changes and then what does this look like? They have that there is a surge coming that they will increase their attacks on Iran. So we'll kind of have to see over the next week to see, well, how does this play out and then how does that change the timeline going forward? Jeanette, are there any independent assessments of where the administration is on achieving main principles of that timeline in particular wiping out weapons that could attack US and

11:25allies as well as potentially regime change at a time where we now have a new Supreme Leader that President Trump has already said is unacceptable to him? Yeah, I mean, I think obviously the regime change is going to be the biggest challenge for the United States and Israel. And I think you have seen the United States a little bit walk back that exact goal for this military operation. But you are kind of seeing the fact that they are trying to, they were focused on getting Iran's air defenses along the coast, so they could then strike deeper into Iranian territory. They just have to have achieved that goal at least particularly so far. But I think that big question is there's a lot of unknowns. We don't know if Iran has more missile capacity that they are still kind of holding onto. That would be important. I think that the United States has been highlighting the fact that missile attacks and drone attacks coming from Iran have been down 70 or 80 percent. And they do think that they are losing firepower, but we don't also know what actually might still be there. So there's definitely still

12:27this risk. But I do think the administration sees that they have made some progress with getting out certain air defenses using up some of the supplies that Iran has that has been using against US and its allies. And also that they're starting to be able to strike further and deeper into Iran. So that is a little bit of some progress towards these ultimate goals. The US is fighting this for alongside Israel. How aligned are these two nations and their ultimate goals? Yeah, I mean, I think there's I think the one thing that was important about why potentially we may have gone into this is that there was an alignment between the two countries on the actual ability to go after Iran. And this is a they both, I think, see this as an opportunity to really kind of strike at the weapons that Iran had that it was potentially using to threaten both of those countries, also trying to go after certain, you know, other pieces that the Iran has been trying to do with its nuclear program. But obviously we may see some disagreements longer term. We saw the disagreement over the weekend about the fact that

13:30Israel's strong oil depots in Iran and the US was opposed to that. We also may see differences of opinion as to whether or not we're actually going to get regime change or would the US be more willing to accept some other upward outcome versus Israel. So I think there could be more fractures going forward, but we haven't seen a lot yet. But obviously the longer this takes that could obviously become something that becomes a bigger risk. Jenna, how much visibility do we have on what's happening inside Iran right now? This is a population of 90 million people, something like that, with very, very complex power structures as anyone who's followed that country for a while will understand. Jenna, those strikes from Israel are really, really important because that undermines the domestic support for what is happening. And that's been an argument of both Israel and the US for quite a while to try and get the Iranian people on side to ultimately topple the leadership. There's a little sign of that right now. How do those strikes help? Yeah, I think that was one of the main concerns that the United States had was that those attacks could actually make opposition less willing to go after the regime and less willing to

14:36kind of arise off in that way. And so that was why the administration was a little bit more upset with Israel for going after those attacks because they do want to make sure that there are conditions where we're not actually helping to rally the Iranian people behind the leadership and feeling like they in particular are being attacked rather than the regime and the security forces that hold up that regime. So that is definitely a risk. Obviously, the other issue is that we do have these internet blackouts, which doesn't mean we always have a full understanding of what is actually happening within Iran. And that makes it a little bit more difficult to know what could be the ultimate outcome. Obviously, one of the big issues here is that we don't necessarily have a good understanding of could there be an opposition leader who could actually rise up and take over in Iran, like what you saw in 1979, the fact that the IHOLO was a particular figure, that I think is something that is going to be a risk going forward and to see if that ultimate goal can be achieved. Stay with us, Maul Plumberg Savannah's coming up after this.

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16:47If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has helped individuals and businesses navigate tough moments with expertise, personal attention, and independent agents who focus on relationships, not transactions. The Cincinnati Insurance companies let them make your bad day better. Find an agent at CINFIN.com. Surging all prices sending bond your time across the globe, investors raising bets central banks will keep rates on hold. The former Kansas City Fed President Esther George, writing, with all prices surging over $100 a barrel inflation is sure to move higher. The Fed will want to look through this price pressure, but it will likely stay their hand for entering rate cuts or entertaining rate cuts. The former Fed President joins us now for more.

17:51As they're welcome to the program, let's just get to that statement and your experience too. I always want to lean on that. You live the 22 energy shark. Can you frame for our audience the similarities, the differences between this moment and that one? Well, good morning, Jonathan. Yeah, I think I think the uncertainty that we've talked about for some time is one of the characteristics here that we have to remember. We have been relying heavily on a consumer that has faced significant price shock coming out of the pandemic. This is a consumer that has felt the impact of the tariffs and they also have felt the uncertainty associated with a job market that has shifted significantly. And so when we rely on the consumers, we do here in the US, that becomes a real focal point, I think, for trying to understand. Now we have added a new shock, this gasoline price at the pump. We understand that diesel prices will be affected, which,

18:52of course, will feed into the cost of transportation and other things. And I think it creates a real point, not just of uncertainty, but I think heightened risk around consumer spending and growth as we look ahead. When you were at the Federal Reserve through the 22 shark, household balance sheets were arguably much stronger and the labor market was much tighter. Do you think differently about how this price shock and the energy market will work its way through the economy? Yeah, I think you hear a lot about the K-shaped economy and I think that will come into the fore now. We have really been relying on a group of consumers that can power through this. But you can only stress weaker household balance sheets that have, again, had the benefit of having jobs, that has been really, I think, one of the tailwinds here. But there is a breaking point, I think. And so I think the fed will have to be particularly focused on thinking about how that consumer is going to be positioned today to be able to look through this kind of additional price pressure. As to that could go one or

19:56two ways. On one hand, you can make an argument for easing policy to try to give lower income consumers a better scenario, a better backdrop to meet this price shock. On the other hand, you could say the Fed has a role to play to combat inflation. Which side of the equation do you fit on? Well, the Fed has been focusing on the labor market and on weakness at, I think, the risk of inflation even before this oil price shock. Now, I think the Fed, and you hear them increasingly talking about the risk of inflation, they have allowed it to extend out for a period of time that now puts them in a very, very difficult position, I think, in understanding how they're going to weigh their policy risk. Whether they continue to think they are as well-balanced coming into this March meeting, I think, is going to be something to listen for here because you are going to have headline inflation for sure. We'll be getting more numbers in this week to

20:58see that. And I think the calculus around keeping those inflation expectations in the long run anchored is going to be a point worth talking about. Rates traders are pricing in rate hikes over at the ECB as well as the Bank of England. Do you think that as this progresses, if it does continue for a longer period of time, that that's going to be a scenario that's reflected in how the Federal Service being priced? Well, I think, obviously, a little bit different for the US to think about that and the Fed, as it contemplates its updated dot plots. But I do think it stays their hand on being able to suggest that they are looking to rate cuts, but maybe in a pause mode. I think this kind of environment will really remind them that inflation target has to be credible, and they have to keep focused on that. Even if their tools right now are in conflict, they are looking at a job market

22:00that may be stable, but has shown signs of weakness while they have been looking at inflation that continues, not only to be persistent, but as we've been talking about, is now going to show some upward pressure. Esther, would you describe this labor market as stable? You know, I consider it stable in the sense when you step back and look at the unemployment rate, which is our best gauge, I think, of how that labor market looks. It does mask what is underneath that surface of a lot of moving parts. I think we're beginning to see the real impact of some of the immigration policy hits here. We're beginning to see the uncertainty. I would argue play out, where businesses are happy to hire for positions that you feel confident about, but they're not going to move hard and fast relative to the growth levels that we've seen. So I think it's a tentative labor market in my view, even though we continue to enjoy a relatively low unemployment rate.

23:01This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, Bringing You, the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV, weekday mornings from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Eastern, subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. For volatility, but in life, even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day, a fire, a loss, a disruption that demands immediate attention. When that happens, what matters isn't just what you planned. It's who shows up. That's where Cincinnati Insurance comes in. For more than 75 years, they've helped individuals and businesses navigate life's toughest moments with care, expertise, and personal attention. Together with independent agents, Cincinnati Insurance focuses on relationships, not transactions. Their approach is grounded in experience,

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