Back from the brink, but not far back

Thursday 9th April 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility.

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