April Rally Possible?📈Crypto Market Update

0:00Trump wants to cease fire. This could lead to an economic boom. I'll explain it all for you guys today. I do want to thank our sponsor before we get started and that is Tangem, where you guys can secure your crypto in a hardware wallet. It's very easy to set up, works like a credit card with your phone, go over to Tangem.com. You guys can of course get true ownership on your digital assets. It's very easy to use and set up. I would say by far one of the best and easiest platforms to use, I have turned on many people onto this platform and they all tell me they are so happy about how easy to use it is. So check it out. You guys can do swaps over there. You can also get yield bearing assets in there, a lot of opportunities. So check out Tangem.com by using our link down below. Let's go over to a couple of points I want to lead off with here. The Fed just got the perfect inflation report at the worst possible time because the CPI came in for February as expected, which is 2.4%. Before CPI cooled down 0.2 month over month, that's down 0.3 from January.

1:02On paper, it looks like the report in the Fed had been waiting for. A lot of people though think that this is outdated information, obviously with what we're seeing happen in the Middle East. This could change completely in just a matter of 30 days. I want to go to a clip real quick because this will start to break it down and whether or not this was too early. Take a look. Well, it's still a little early to say exactly what the long-term impact is going to be. The CPI numbers that came out today were comforting, but they don't really take into account what the likely impact is going to be over the next couple of weeks on inflation because of the energy price increases we're now seeing or likely to see. But I think the market is probably going to be pleased with the numbers from the CPI, but it won't really affect the Fed all that much because I think the Fed is probably going to say that we have to look at what the energy prices are doing over the next couple days before it makes a decision on March 18th when the FOMC meets again. My guess is that probably you won't see any rate cuts. I think the markets are suggesting there will be no rate cuts this time, and I think

2:06that's likely to be the case because, again, energy prices are probably going up a little bit more than the CPI numbers suggest today. If you look over on Polymarket, we are looking at a potential rate hike opportunity and this would move what was around March 2nd at pretty much nothing, 6%. It is exploded up here to almost double that, 12%. Again, this is happening because of what's going on in Iran, and I think the key here is is how is the Fed going to respond? If in fact that we do see just short-term energy spikes and return back down to below $80 a barrel in terms of oil, then maybe that does give the Fed a little bit of breathing room. So it will kind of curious how March 18th is going to play out. That's still seven days away. We'll be doing a live stream on that, so watch out for the next FOMC meeting. Now Tom Lee thinks that the oil surge is actually good for stocks. Take a look and see what he had to say. But if I look back at the last two days, oil is $15 higher than it was last week, but

3:08the S&P is higher. So to me, the market actually is handling higher oil prices better, and we wrote in our note this morning that we think higher oil prices are actually good for the U.S. stock market. How in the world are higher oil prices, which then mean even higher gas prices, which mean higher jet fuel prices, and all sorts of other issues that are related to that input cost on a whole number of other industries, how is that possibly good for the stock market? Yeah, part of it's a relative. You know, one, U.S. is an exporter of oil, so we net benefit as an economy from higher oil. The second is other countries are importers, so the U.S. not only looks better, but on a relative growth basis, it should outperform, which means flows back into the U.S. And the third is, as we worry about global growth for all the reasons you describe, when growth is scarce, people buy growth stocks, the U.S. stock market is a growth index. So it's coming out of the rest of the world back in the U.S.

4:10So I think it's a rotation story. And I think we have gone through a winter where a lot of the speculation and the leverage is gone, and I think this weekend kind of showed Bitcoin is coming back and vote as a store of value because oil prices went up, but over the weekend, crypto prices actually search and Bitcoin, as you know, is holding above 70,000 now. So Tom Lee kind of caged you there, what's up is down, what's down is up kind of theory around if prices are higher here, it causes pressure into these international markets, which goes after the stock price or growth stocks here in the U.S. I mean, it's an interesting argument. Let me know what you guys think. Do you think that is the case? Higher oil prices mean better for the stock market and better for the U.S. economy in general. One other thing to take a look at is kind of the timeline here is Coby C talking about this. The Trump's, Trump has been talking about this for a couple days, is that the war in Iran will end soon. And the timeline, if you look further down in here, the war timeline puts it at the end of March.

5:10Now, many people say, hey, we've been looking at April, even May, but Trump is accelerating this or it appears to be accelerating, even though we're not necessarily getting accelerations from some of our partners because now the U.S. has asked Israel to stop hitting oil infrastructure in Iran. This is interesting from one day going to hitting infrastructure to now the U.S. trying to get a full stop on Israel hitting oil infrastructure there in Iran. Now, I want to go to a clip real quick, because this gets into how Trump is planting seeds to get this thing over. Take a look. I felt based on the negotiations that we're being had by Steve Whitcough and Jared Kirchner and Marco and Pete and everybody was involved. I felt that they were going to, that they were looking to tap us along before they hit. And I thought they were going to hit. And if they hit us first, that would have been a very bad thing. All right. So, I don't know. If this doesn't turn out for Trump in the sense that he feels as though he got misinformation

6:11on this, you could get into another firing season. We've already seen, of course, Christie knows. She's out. I think Pammy Bondy is going to be out pretty soon, too. And now you've got that line up from Steve Whitcough. I don't think he's going to go on after Jared. But the point is, is that there's going to be some heads to roll if he feels that he can't get out of this. It affects his economy, if it affects the American economy, or it affects some of his global negotiations that he's in the middle of, including this one, which is where Trump is getting ready for the G summit. This is coming fast. And I think he wants to be out of the way of the Middle East and into a position where he can actually say, hey, we did some good things over there for you. We kept oil flowing. We're trying to make a deal. Come to the table. Let's get it done. This really wants to go into this meeting with G, with the war behind him. Take a look at this clip. We're going through a regime change. This is not a trade. This is a regime change. We're moving from that world that was defined from 2014 to 2024, you know, is that new economy

7:14boom, you know, driven by MAG-7 is a technology boom, asset light. Similar to what we saw the dot-com boom. What came after the dot-com boom? Remember, it was a, the exact same thing. You had a geopolitical event, switched you in 2001, and then actually directly connected to the 9-11 was China's emission of WTO. By the way, they were connected. George Bush Jr. needed to use force in the Middle East. He needed a vote in the UN Security Council. He traded a mission of China into the WTO to get that boom. You're off to the races. You were in an asset heavy boom that lasted for over a decade of 2014, and then we went into the current light asset one, and look, we're again in one of these huge geopolitical events. And I think the big thing to watch is when she and President Trump meet at the end of this month, and that's going to be where the negotiation happens. This could be a potential regime shift. And what I'm talking about is the, you know, the global regime of how the global powers

8:17are essentially organizing and lining up around the world. If you think about everything that Trump's been doing here in the Western Hemisphere, this all starts to lean into his strategy or that the analyst was breaking down. So he goes further into how this might play out into this next clip and how the trade could play out. Take a look. And what's going to happen is we're going to reprise everything. But I think the key point here, what do you want to own? Own the hard assets, own the halos. The term we called it in the 2000s was the revenge of the old economy because it was coming off the back of the dot com boom. This time around, I love that term, halo, heavy asset, low obsolescence, own those assets and hang on. And I want to own metal. I want to own gold. I want to own oil. And by the way, again, this is a huge disruption. It's just not isolated to oil. So ever since 2022, commodity prices spike. These emerging markets get money. What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets because they don't want to get sanctions imposed on them like what happened to the Russians.

9:18And as a result, you don't have that money coming back. One other point you got to keep in mind is now transfer payments are bigger. The US debt is bigger. The interest payments are bigger. So when oil prices go up, headline inflation goes up, that gets much bigger. In fact, we estimate you go to 120 and stay there. You're going to crowd out $150 billion of private credit because you're going to have to basically issue that in public credit. And this was an article on it, Halo stocks, heavy assets, low obsolescence, breakdowns here. He goes into real questions, not who benefits from AI. It's also who gets caught in the compression. And there will be compression. I'm looking at it on the compression of finance, the compression of next generation finance. And I think when he talks about low obsolescence, that he's talking about here, grids, pipes, finance towers, rails, fleets, et cetera, no. I'm going to layer that into grids, infrastructure, a lot of the pipes that are being built in digital assets, some of the companies that are implementing essentially the plants and

10:20the towers and then the trans actors who are going to be playing into this. So if you're into digital assets, these are, I believe, the Halo of where he's talking about this economy going, low obsolescence in terms of technology. Let's talk about ETH. That's one of the big ones. This would be one of the biggest rails out there. Here's Tom Lee. He hits on this right here, congrats BM&R, another 60K in ETH accumulation. That's 1.2 billion in cash going in. And remember, we have talked about this many times. Look for the 100, the 100,000 ETH, not price, purchase, 100,000 in ETH. And what that means for BM&R. That tells me we have marked the bottom. If you go over here and bitmine some merchants' holdings, you can kind of see, let me zoom in on that for you guys. So you can kind of see, here's the net changes right there, 50, 40, 35. And here's the biggest one he just made at 60. So he's edging up slowly from 24, 35, 40, 41, 40, 45, 50.

11:23Sounds like an auction, right? Well, maybe he's on his way to 100. That could be the bottom for Ethereum. So keep a very close eye. I want to go to one more clip here. This clip goes into where Matt Hogan thinks the market is heading. Take a look. My thesis is that we're actually really deep into the winter. So deep that we may be seeing the first signs of the spring. I think the crypto winner really started this time, way back at the beginning of 2025. We just didn't notice it because there was so much institutional capital coming into Bitcoin via ETFs that kept the price, I think we were down 6% in 2025. But if you would remove that institutional capital, the price would have been down substantially. In 2022, we had FTX blew up, we had core infrastructure of crypto collapsing, we had a regulator that was trying to end the industry. This time we have sort of classic crypto winner, but regulation is moving in a positive direction. Institutional investors are still coming in.

12:24There are other use cases of crypto that are emerging. It's just a much more optimistic perspective. So maybe that's the biggest disconnect, is people have been so distraught about crypto. And underneath the surface, the fundamentals are actually really, really strong. I'm just trying to get people to look at it rationally and realize we're actually in a pretty good place. I'm in agreement with Matt, there are a couple of points he's hitting at is that when you look at cycles and just economic cycles, how markets respond, what we've seen in terms of these black swan events, which I would call what we're seeing right now in Iran, a black swan event, in a sense of where the market has been impacted, even though we haven't seen a black swan that has really retraced the S&P 500. That is still a concern. I mean, people would say we haven't seen that pull back yet. But as we look at this further into the cycle, further into what we're seeing in digital assets, maybe this is nearing the bottom. Let me know what you guys think. Drop some comments down below.

13:25This is going to be a busy week.