"An attack on a synagogue in Michigan”

0:00In 2024, a truck crashed into Cannot and will rescue, where I work. 146 of our dogs needed homes fast. We asked for help on Facebook. Our story spread through WhatsApp messages and Instagram reposts, immediately people stepped up. And just six hours later, every dog was fostered. I'll never forget how our community showed up for us. Learn how over 3.5 billion people connect to what matters with meta at meta.com slash community. Now, finding a doctor is a little less challenging. United health group is investing in tools that make it easier for patients to navigate health care and pay less. These transparency tools help patients find providers and this is the big thing, compare costs up front. The big picture, more transparent pricing, benefits everyone. And these tools from United Health Group can help patients save hundreds of dollars annually. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. Hi there, everybody.

1:00It's 4 o'clock in New York. We're following twin breaking news stories this afternoon. First, there has been an attack on a synagogue in West Bloomfield near Detroit, Michigan. Here's what we know right now. That suspect is dead. Officials say that a vehicle crashed into the building, driving through the doors and into the hallways. A security guard was hit by the vehicle. He's expected to be okay. The security guard engaged the suspect and shot the suspect. Police are currently searching the area. Police are telling everyone within a mile of that synagogue to shelter in place. Investigators may have found explosive materials inside the vehicle, but not necessarily functional explosive devices. Sheriff said that may have been what ignited inside the synagogue. There is a daycare and a preschool on the side of the synagogue. We should note everyone has been moved to safety. The FBI is expected to take the lead on that investigation, but we're also learning more about a shooting this morning at Old Minion University in Virginia that shooting left one person dead to injured to the victims, remembers the university's ROTC program.

2:05The shooter is also deceased. Our colleague, Candelanian, is reporting that the suspect is a U.S. citizen and a former Army service member who pled guilty in October of 2016 to attempting to provide material support to ISIS. He served 10 years in prison. My colleague, Candelanian, is joining us now to tell us what he has learned about this. Ken? Nicole, we're just learning these details, but a federal official familiar with the matter has identified Muhammad Baylor Jello as the shooter in this Old Minion incident, which killed one and injured two others, and the gunman himself also killed in this incident. And as you said, he pled guilty in 2016 to essentially engaging in an ISIS-sponsored terrorism plot. He engaged with undercover FBI agents and confidential human sources after becoming radicalized. He was born in Sierra Leone. He served in the U.S. Army National Guard, so he lived in the United States for a long

3:08time. He said he became radicalized through online propaganda, got entangled with ISIS folks, and then got caught up in this FBI sting. And he was sentenced to 11 years in prison in 2017. There's no parole in the federal system, but it looks like he served most of that sentence. You get a discount for good behavior, but he was released according to federal prison records in December 2024. After that, we don't know what happened to him, and we don't know to what extent the FBI was keeping tabs on him, but they clearly were not today, because today they're now saying he carried out this horrific attack at Old Dominion University on a day of violence in the United States. And it really does underscore the threat picture right now in the United States, an uptick in ISIS activity clearly, and response to people by people sympathetic to Iran as the United States goes to war with Iran. And also underscores the difficult posture that the FBI finds itself in, with hundreds

4:08of experienced counterterrorism agents having left in the last year and not been replaced. And we've all of us who follow the FBI have been wondering whether there would be an impact to that. And now we're seeing what looks clearly like a gap, something that should have been caught that was not. Kendall Anion, there was reporting, I think toward the end of last week or beginning of this week, that the White House had squashed bulletin to local law enforcement, which is typically used to just make sure all law enforcement, which is the eyes and ears is alert of an uptick in chatter or the threat environment. Are you aware of any attempts to reverse that practice, to maybe take the White House out of that communication, that vital information flow between Intel and the FBI and local law enforcement? I'm not aware of that. In fact, I don't think that's the way this administration works in the coal. The White House is clearly riding herd on these law enforcement agencies. And yes, I didn't report on that particular bulletin, but I've certainly heard from my

5:10sources that there is a desire, I made this White House, to downplay the idea that the war launched with Iran has in any way created a more of a risk or a danger of a terrorist attack, but clearly it has. And every expert who's looked at this situation has said that, and my FBI and intelligence community sources are saying that they're on high alert right now. They're very concerned. Now, the White House said in response to this particular story about the bulletin that they simply just wanted to clarify and better edit it and make it more clear. There's no doubt that, at least among the people I talked to, that there was a reluctance at the highest levels of the White House to come to grips with the idea that the Iran war has increased the terror threat. And we're seeing, we may be seeing some of that today. And then the other question is, is the FBI well-positioned to respond to that increased risk? The coal. What's the answer to that one? I mean, I personally, from what people are telling me, I think it's not well-positioned.

6:11We've reported last week that more than 300 experienced FBI counterterrorism agents have left the Bureau in the last year, and they have not been replaced. No matter how many new recruits have been hired and sent to Quantico Training, you can't replace decades of experienced counterterrorism counterintelligence agents. And that's on top of the fact that so many FBI agents have been tasked to do immigration enforcement and walking the beat, doing violent crime patrols, and things that Caspatel has made a priority over the traditional FBI mission of counterterrorism and counterintelligence. Now, Caspatel and his allies say that they have not taken the right off the ball, that they are working as hard as ever on these national security problems. But the evidence really doesn't support that, at least in terms of the personnel and the effort, you know, sort of targeted at this problem. And, you know, you can never sort of say that one particular attack, this one at Old Dominion, for example, was the result of less staff or some kind of, you know, taking their eye off the ball.

7:15But there's an accumulation now, and we're going to see over the next year or two years or three years, whether these major policy decisions and redirection of the FBI, whether that's going to have an impact on the safety of Americans, Nicole. Really important reporting. Kindly, if you need to go do any reporting, please don't let us hold you up. But if you can stick around for a few more minutes, we'd love to keep you in this conversation. I want to add to it former Assistant Special Agent in Charge at the FBI and National Security and Intelligence Analyst, Michael Feinberg, also joining us, New York Times reporter, Mark Mazzetti. He's written a book on combating terror in this country. It's called The Way of the Knife. He joins us as well. Alex Wagner is also at the table with me writing heard on all of this breaking news. Let me start with you, Michael Feinberg, and just broadly speaking, what do we know about the current threat environment in this country right now? I think we know everything we need to know from the anecdote you just relayed,

8:15which is that the FBI in concert with DHS attempted to release a memorandum to local law enforcement telling them that there was an increased threat environment directly related to this war of our choice in Iran and the White House stopped on it. This tells us that we are less safe than we were before this war began. And frankly, that the White House doesn't really have an interest in helping people get ready for that environment if doing so is going to drive down its poll numbers. And I'm going to be a little less politic than Ken just was. And I'm going to say that I have no problem whatsoever stating that the drawdown on national security priorities and the shift of resources to immigration enforcement has 100% made us less safe and made events of this type more likely to happen.

9:16Less counterterrorism agents working counterterrorism investigations on a day-to-day basis means less agents meeting with their sources, establishing trip wires, and having their finger on the pulse of what those communities involved with these sort of organizations are hearing. Things are inevitably going to fall through the cracks. It's time for the United States government to be honest with the populace about that and hopefully have a hard look in the mirror about what this shift of the entire federal law enforcement community to focusing on undocumented immigrants actually means. Well, Michael, let me follow up then. I mean, the other piece of this and Mark Zetti knows is quite expert in this as well as the intelligence piece. And you now have a public posture of the country's director of national intelligence participating in raids carried out by the FBI of battleground state election office material. So if you look at the reassignment

10:22of law enforcement that you just articulated and the public posture of the country's DNI, it is not focused on the greatest threat to the homeland. Yeah, look, we have to follow what individuals like Tulsi Gabbard and Calf Patel and John Ratcliffe mercifully not Dan Bonjino anymore. But we as concerned citizens and people who follow the news need to pay attention to what we're doing. But we should not confuse that with needing to take them seriously as people who are at all invested in the safety of their fellow citizens. They're political actors. They are not public servants. And their actions for the past year and the results that we are seeing today in both Michigan and Virginia are a direct result of that. Mark was it. Let me bring you in on this. And the intelligence community is pretty opaque,

11:22I think, by design to the ordinary citizen. But here's what's been public facing. Individuals fired for not corroborating a fact pattern that would allow the Trump White House to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of an invasion from Trent Bayeragua associated to Venezuela. It seems quaint after the operation to kidnap Maduro and put him on trial. But that was one of the first sort of friction points with the intelligence community. As I mentioned, the high profile participation of Tulsi Gabbard at a full county, Georgia election office, seizing material and then getting on the phone with Donald Trump afterward, ostensibly to talk to him about it. The sort of in and out presence of Tulsi Gabbard, again, the political appointee who sits atop all of the country's intelligence agencies in large foreign policy moves, not necessarily in

12:29the room for the first strike against Iran over the summer. Again, showed up publicly in Georgia, but now not really at the table on another foreign policy question. What is your sense of the state of our country's intelligence agencies? As you say, it's opaque by design, but the sort of coin of the realm with the intelligence community and law enforcement, of course, is that Americans aren't supposed to know their daily functions, but to have trust that what they're doing is done for the safety and security of the country, and it is not done through a political lens. You know, you recall the reason why the director of national intelligence as a job was created was after 9-11, and it was after the Iraq war, where there was this tremendous loss of confidence in the intelligence community. And the idea was that you had some new position,

13:34someone atop all of the intelligence agencies to instill that confidence that they were in charge, and that yes, they answered to the president, but this is not a political hack, right? It's a someone who is supposed to be nonpartisan. And so, obviously, if you have the director of national intelligence, who is taking actions that seem deliberately political, deliberately part of a political agenda, that's going to erode confidence in that not only in that position of the DNI, people have their various views about the DNI, but just in general of the intelligence enterprise that they are have this one mission top of mind. Mark, I'm sure you hear much more than I do, but even from the national security folks that I talked to, there's been a low grade trepidation that the chatter and the threat environment exceeds even that. I think Jim Himes has actually said this publicly exceeds that which preceded 9-11.

14:38What is your sense of the current threat environment that national security officials feel were under right now? So, obviously, you know, we don't want to jump to conclusions about events of the last day or 20, you know, what directly links attacks of the day, what inspired people why they did it, how to directly attribute the current war in Iran. However, as you said, how these things tend to work is that people are radicalized not at once, but they're radicalized over time and constantly in what they watch and who they listen to. And, you know, the fact is that we are in a situation right now where we have triggers for things that have radicalized terrorists in the past and one of them is the actions of the United States in the Middle East and another is the actions of Israel in the Middle East. And what we're in right now

15:44is the first ever in history, joint US, Israeli strike on a country in the Middle East, a Muslim country in the Middle East. And so, these are the type of things that are triggers that radicalized people. And, you know, speaking to your point about the chatter, this is what it tends to elevate the things that are of great concern to law enforcement, to intelligence, to members of oversight committees, even if they can't pin down specific attacks before they happen, this is the type of elevated threat environment that worries them. And, Alex, I mean, to Mark and Michael Feinberg and Ken Sirporting, I mean, the elevated threat environment is something that the American people have endured before, but it's something it's endured with an unprecedented level of skill inside the FBI and the CIA. I mean, one of the other reasons the position of DNI was created was the promise to never again fail to

16:48connect the dots. To never take a field report from the FBI and not sink it up with the best available intelligence from the CIA and other intelligence agencies and put it in front of policymakers to make the kinds of decisions and to move the assets to stay left of boom was the expression ahead of any terror attack. Yeah, I mean, and to all the points that Mark was making, especially, let's not get ahead of this in terms of the motivations for these two shootings, but you do look at the reality of where we are right now. What's happening overseas? The fact that today, Iran's new leader, Ayatollah Hamid, the younger said, we will not refrain from avenging the blood of Iranian martyrs, which may or may not have anything to do with any of this, but we are operating an incredibly pitched environment where there is an inordinate amount of tension between Muslims and the West, Muslims, and the people of the Jewish faith in large part because of what's happening in Iran. And you have to wonder about the connectedness, you have to wonder about the ways in which this environment further radicalizes people,

17:49and you have to wonder fundamentally about the degree to which this White House, which has been caught completely flat-footed on a war of choice, really has the personnel in place and actually the interest in keeping Americans safe. Because thus far, the data that we've been given, whether it's the Pentagon downplaying the brutality of the attack that killed the six American servicemen members in Kuwait, whether it is the President wearing a baseball cap to dignify transfer, whether it is the way in which he talks about the collateral damage of war, doesn't give you a sense that the safety and the security of the American people is paramount. What we have found in the past week is that it's all about Donald Trump and him maintaining this sort of stranglehold he has on power. And everything else is up for grabs. Yeah, I mean, can let me combat you on that. Personnel is policy, and right now our policy when it comes to the posture of the FBI is that the President of the United States, who is a president at war, is comfortable with the beer guzzling director of the FBI, partying at the Olympics, the gold medal winning hockey team.

18:53Donald Trump expects loyalty, but is not really known for being loyal in response. Any sense that he might re-evaluate Cache Patel's position in light of this threat environment? Well, a couple of things on that, Nicole. One, we reported last year that Cache Patel was on thin ice and was at risk of being replaced. And we've often chuckled that we may have saved his job by reporting that because shortly after that, he was pictured in the Oval Office with Donald Trump, with the smiling Donald Trump. So that was, he's been on thin ice for some time over his use of the FBI jet and his use of resources and a general approach to the job, according to our sources. But this late, the thing that you mentioned, the beer guzzling at the Olympics, there's been a lot of reporting that Donald Trump, who doesn't drink after all, was not pleased with that spectacle. Certainly, people across the FBI, including very conservative mega supporters I've spoken to, were disgusted by that and thought it was not appropriate behavior for the FBI director. So you couple that with, there's going to be some obvious questions asked about what

19:57happened here with his old opinion shooter. How could an ISIS sympathizer who served a decade in prison, walk out of federal prison and then what not be, not be monitored at all by federal counterterrorism authorities? And then the other question raised here is, the Trump administration has made a big deal about going out to the worst of the worst and even taking citizenship away from immigrants who have committed horrible crimes. Why did they not propose denaturalizing this person who was born in Sierra Leone and deporting him? Was he not on their radar? Those are the kind of substantive issues that no doubt will draw the scrutiny of the White House and they're going to be asking the same questions we're all asking. How could this have happened? And Mr. Patel, what do you have to say about it? I'm already hearing from sources who are trying to get information from FBI officials right now that Patel is keeping a lid on this and is trying to control the message of what's being released about this shooter with the ISIS past, even as we speak, the goal. I'm sure he is. Kendalini and awesome reporting. As usual, thank you so much for starting us off. When we come back, much more on the vulnerabilities Americans are facing right now here at home

21:03as fears of retaliation or radicalization over everything happening in this moment seem to grow. And more on this war that has been started by Donald Trump, which is threatening to turn into a global economic economic calamity as well. A lot more to get to of these next two hours, please stay with us. That's pure automotive joy. I'm Peter, the owner of Muscle Car Junior. It started as a hobby, then I started posting about it. Before I knew it, I built the business for storing muscle cars on Facebook Marketplace and the community of car lovers on Instagram. Today, new customers send me what's that message is from all over. Not bad for a hobby. Learn how meta helps over 35 million American businesses like Peter's grow at meta.com slash community. Now, finding a doctor is a little less challenging. United Health Group is investing in tools that make it easier for patients to navigate health care and pay less. These transparency tools help

22:06patients find providers and this is the big thing. Compare costs up front. The big picture, more transparent pricing benefits everyone. And these tools from United Health Group can help patients save hundreds of dollars annually. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. Life's busy. Don't let banking slow you down. Whether you're paying bills, setting savings goals, or just splitting the check. Atlantic Union Bank makes managing your money easier. With helpful people and user-friendly tools, we make sure banking with us fits you. Call, visit us online, or drop into an Atlantic Union bank branch today. Atlantic Union Bank. Anyway, you bank. We are covering multiple breaking news stories today for you. A shooting at Old Dominion by a suspect who served prison time for providing support to ISIS. One person is dead from that shooting.

23:07We're also keeping an eye on developments. At a Michigan, we're an attack on a synagogue took place this morning. A suspect drove their car into Temple Israel and West Bloomfield. Authorities are still working to identify the suspect and motive. We're also following a new front opening on the war on Iran right here at home. Pro-Aran hackers targeted the company's striker, a maker of medical devices. They make everything from defibrillators to joint implants to hospital beds. That company says that disruptions are expected to continue for an undetermined period of time. We're back with Michael Feinberg, Mark Mazzetti, Alex Feigners with me here at the table. Michael Feinberg, let me start with you. Wall Street Journal reported on this pretty unequivocally as an Iran associated and inspired cyber attack. Tell me just the state of our defenses and how we would even know in the earliest phases that a cyber attack came from Iran.

24:09So that really gets into sources and methods that I can't really speak to. What I can say is that it is a matter of public record that Iran, despite its relatively small size, as a nation and its lack of great power status compared to say Russia or China, is remarkably adept at computer network intrusions and computer network exploitation. They have, as has been publicly reported, gotten into not just companies and corporations accounts like we're seeing in the Wall Street Journal reporting, but also into the accounts of high ranking US officials. They are not to be underestimated within this threat sphere. And once again, this is the sort of thing that was completely foreseeable two weeks ago when we began our attacks on Iran. And once again, it's the sort of thing for which the infrastructure

25:16that the United States had a year and a half ago for stopping these sort of attacks has been gutted. Sissa, DHS's main arm for cyber security was essentially sold for parts because its former head had the temerity to say that the 2020 election was not stolen. So for blatantly political reasons of revenge, there is an entire agency devoted to stopping this sort of thing that functionally does not exist. Big sigh, Mark Mercedes, but let me use that as a segue to your reporting about the Trump administration's miscalculation about how Iran would respond to the US's really strikes. Quote, inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war, but they have been careful not to express that directly to the president who is repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete

26:18success. Trump is laid out of maximalist goals, like insisting that Iran name a leader who will submit to him, will Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth have described narrow and more tactical objectives that could prevent an off ramp in the near term. Your thoughts about how much of a war footing the government, the private sector, the counter-terror institutions were on, if at all, it would appear they were not at all, but maybe I'm missing something. Well, I mean, there's no question that it was a the haphazard path to war and one without any at least public preparation of the country for what a war might entail. And also, despite what we saw of the Pentagon building up military force in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf area, there's not it's not clear just how much extra preparation

27:22was done inside other parts of the US government to deal with the other threats, the other types of threats that Iran can pose. As we've seen in the last, well, just this week alone, right, Iran is what it doesn't have militarily to go head to head with the United States or Israel. It has plenty of other ways to use leverage to inflict pain. And that can be economic pain, as we're seeing, right, in the straightforward moves. It is pain in the cyber realm. As Michael was just talking about, they're very adept at hitting targets, financial institutions, others to cause other kinds of economic pain. And of course, physical pain, the type of attacks that we're seeing not only on civilian areas, but also on American military bases. So these are, this is how Iran can get its leverage and get a war to conclude on its terms. So this was all

28:22the preparation that should have happened in the days before the war, not just with military preparation, but I think it's not really clear that that was done in part because even up to the last minute, it was unclear whether there was going to be a war and whether there was going to be a diplomatic path. And so there was no groundwork laid to sort of mitigate some of the threats that I think we're seeing now. It's an incredible picture coming into focus. Let me read you one more piece of reporting on what Mark Rosetti is talking about. This is from Reuters. U.S. intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse. Yeah. And quote, U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and not at risk of collapse anytime soon, after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment. That's according to three sources. A multitude of intelligence reports provide consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger of collapse and, quote, retains control of the Iranian public. I mean, to Mark Rosetti's point, Trump described, quote,

29:27complete surrender. I think Caroline Levitt doubled down on that yesterday. They have not laid out any goals in their seven or eight Russianels that include leaving the government completely intact. And in complete control of the Iranian public, which the president has been explicitly encouraging to rise up to no end. I mean, it's a complete fail. The uranium enrichment, Iran's ability to get a nuclear weapon they haven't gone after one of their most important storehouses for that pickaxe mountain. I just learned about this today, which is 300 feet underground. The explicit goals in so far as any have been laid out by this administration, they have failed to deliver in spectacular fashion. All they've created is chaos and carnage. And what could be another Gulf War, the beginning of World War III, I have no idea with no thought towards the preservation of any stability in the region, no thought towards the Americans who are caught in the region, and no thought towards domestic implications in our security as a country. I mean, it is a stunning, it is a catastrophe of moral, economic, and political proportions.

30:30That is just unfolding. We're so grateful to you guys for starting us off. I know this was a breaking news story and a moving target. Thank you both so much for rolling with us, Mark Mazzetti and Michael Feinberg, Alex Sixx, around when we come back. We'll turn to the global economic crisis that is unfolding before our eyes by Donald Trump's now 13-day long war in Iran. Quick break, we'll be back with that on the other side. Instagram Teen Accounts, automatic protections for teens. Instagram Teen Accounts have built-in content settings, now inspired by 13-plus movie ratings, and limits for who can contact teens. Plus, teens under 16 can't change these default safety settings without parental approval, so parents can help teens connect safely. Instagram Teen Accounts, automatic protections for who can contact teens and the content they can see. Learn more at Instagram.com slash teen accounts. Here's a shift worth noting. Better health care is care that meets patients where they are.

31:31United Health Group is bringing it directly to living rooms. This is a win for patients managing chronic conditions, and here's the interesting thing. By closing those care gaps, administering in-home exams and identifying risks earlier, more diseases can be prevented, and patient outcomes can improve. In 2025 alone, United Health Group patients received over 19 million home visits. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. Wherever your family is headed, every mile should feel like part of the adventure. With room for seven, the 2025 Jeep Grand Cherokee is built for your whole group. Quick morning drop-offs, weekend tournaments, and those unplanned sunset chases that bring everyone together. 4x4 capability keeps you confident through surprises, de-tours, and let's see where this goes moments. Because the laughter, the stories, and the everyone talking at once rides are the ones that become family legends. The 2025 Jeep Grand Cherokee, made for family adventures that matter. Jeep and Jeep Reeler registered trademarks of FCA, US LLC. It is day 13 of the war in Iran. Here's where things stand. More than 2,000 people are dead.

32:34Across the Middle East, that includes eight United States service members. 140 US soldiers have been injured. Some of them badly. The Pentagon says the war has cost American taxpayers $11.3 billion for the first six days of the war alone. On the economic side, the world is facing the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency. This video shows you why Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran has sparked an historic energy crisis. Three oil tankers were struck in the Persian Gulf. One person was killed in those attacks on board a ship owned by an American company. It is a show of force by the Iranians, which seems, the Iranian regime seems intent on squeezing the world's oil supply. In a message out today, Iran's new Supreme Leader vowed to keep the pivotal state of Hormuz closed. One fifth of the world's oil supply goes through the state of Hormuz.

33:35Friend of this program, Derek Thompson describes it like this quote, the state of Hormuz is the global economy's ACL, a small and vulnerable connective tendon that you don't have to think about when it's working perfectly and causes very loud anguish when normal function is ruptured. If this war continues to disrupt traffic through that passage, the consequences will not stop at gasoline prices. They will spread to fertilizer, petrochemicals, plastics, jet fuel shipping, power markets, and manufacturing supply chains that most people never think about until they seize up. So those are some of the stakes. Keep that in mind when we show you what Donald Trump said about the straight of Hormuz. And now we're going to look very strongly at the straits. The straits are in great shape. We've knocked out all of their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many. I think we're in very good shape. So he may have been talking about a time in the past or the future. He doesn't make that clear,

34:36but again, we want you to be able to believe your eyes. And here is video from the Gulf one more time. Again, three tankers were struck. Oil terminals have closed across the region. So right now, today, as we come on the air, we are not in very good shape. This morning, Donald Trump claimed on two social that it was actually a good thing that oil prices are going up. The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.59 today. It was $2.98 14 days ago. For more, I want to bring in CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leiceman, Alex Wagner is still here as well. Steve, we wanted to talk to you and we're so happy that you heard. I'm sorry, we kept you waiting. Your sense of this picture coming to focus here. So this is a shock. It's a big global shock. As you say, correctly, the the straight of herbose is a major conduit for not just oil, but fertilizers and other food stuff. So the inflation

35:37we'll see will be across other products as well as just oil. I do want to set the stage, though, in terms of the US and oil because the situation has changed over time. Very resilient US economy that among other things produces a lot more oil, uses a lot less oil for growth. So the way to think about this Nicole, I think is as a more of a redistribution of wealth in the country. And what does that mean? Well, who owns the oil companies? Well, wealthy people on the stocks of oil companies, they get the dividend. Who are the consumers? Well, more low and moderate income people. So what we're talking about is shoveling tens of billions of dollars from low income consumers to wealthier people. In fact, I did some back of the envelope. It's about at $36 more, a get more a barrel, maybe as much as $150 billion more, a windfall to the oil companies. And that would come right out of the pockets of US consumers. And you add on that, the tariff inflation they had residual inflation from the pandemic. This is just another shock that's going to hurt.

36:39And the US economy will get through this. Depending upon how long it lasts estimated or forecast without a recession at this point. You knew exactly where I was going this time. I wrote down on my piece of paper, tariffs and inflation. I mean, Donald Trump has his lowest approval rating on the economy. It's 11 points below his overall approval rating, just 30 percent of Americans say the economy is good or excellent. And you look at the price of gas. It was the one economic indicator that Donald Trump felt good enough about on Tuesday night of the state of the union ahead of his late Friday night bombing raid of Iran. So you lose that one economic data point that he felt good enough to put in the speech. It seems that the administration is going to face intense political pressure about what you just articulated. A rising gas prices that dramatically impacts the American people. If I could just point out, Nicole, he mostly, he made up a lot of those prices he talked about

37:44in the state of the union. They were. You don't say. You suggested. I just felt it necessary too. When you're telling me lies, I feel like like my work here is done. Thank you. Well, I started fact checking the state of the union and I ran so far behind it didn't make much sense to keep going. I will point out, including how much he says that oil production has increased under his watch. And I don't think it's been a whole lot. I think I think you're making a very, there's two really important points about gasoline and oil. The percentage that the average American spends has gone down over the years of their pocket. The extent to which Americans are concerned and watch the price of gas, I think it's gotten actually more intense. We have seen situations where everything else in a person's life could be okay. But if gasoline prices are high, then they hate the current incumbent and they hate the current economy. Gasoline prices are a

38:47real bell weather for how people feel about the economy. And I just want to mention one other factor, which I didn't include in the economic impact, which is the indirect impact. The amount of uncertainty created here. If you're an employer and you're thinking, should I hire this month or not hire this month? You may not hire. Should I invest this month or not? You may not invest. That kind of uncertainty could snowball on the economy, have really negative impacts over time. I mean, I'm both of them. I have follow up questions for you. But the thing about gas prices is so true. And it's even more than the grocery. Everyone in a household doesn't always do the grocery shopping. But anyone in a car can be frustrated or distressed by seeing the price of gas over time in their car. I want to bring Alex Wagner in as well. I have to sneak in a quick break for us. We'll all be right back on the other side. We're back with two of my most favorite people, Steven Alex. Alex, you've done reporting on farmers and you've been out there and it was

39:48more political in nature. But this is sort of where the buck stops. Let me reduce some times reporting about the impact of the war on them. Even before the war in Iran, raised fertilizer and diesel costs. The majority of American farmers said they were, quote, much worse off or somewhat worse off than one year ago. And their biggest concern was the high cost of the essentials needed to plant their crops. Yeah. I mean, when I talk to farmers in red states who voted for Trump, there's there's farmers have to make decisions well in advance of where the market actually is, right? And if the market is volatile, even if it doesn't end up being as bad as that people predicted, they have to make decisions ahead of time because newsflash, you plant seeds in the ground, they grow, you harvest them, then you sell them, right? And if you have an enratic president who is not looking out for the stability of the global economy, to say nothing of our domestic economy, it makes life really tough for people that in many cases form the backbone of your coalition. I'm just saying, Nicole, the mismanagement or the lack of foresight about what the Iranians could do to the global oil supply is staggering in its

40:50ineptitude. This is a man who, first of all, calls it the streets. It's just us street. And it is encouraging, you know, oil tanker captains to essentially man up, go through their promising Navy escorts that have not materialized, has offered insurance that they can't deliver on. You literally have US envoys calling loids of London saying, how does insurance work for freighters? I mean, they have no idea what they're doing at the same time. He's saying everything's cool here. And the IEA, the international energy agency, is releasing 400 million barrels of oil, the largest in history. If everything's okay, the IEA wouldn't be doing that. We wouldn't be releasing 179 barrels of our petroleum strategic petroleum reserves. The White House knows it has a serious problem here. If they are trying to whistle past the graveyard, but, you know, the reality of the marketplace will tell the tale. I mean, Steve, this is where Trump has proven sensitive to the market reaction. We reported in the last block on the first known Iranian-backed cyber

41:51attack on the US company, Striker. You've got the obvious impacts to the oil economy, the slightly perhaps less obvious impacts to agriculture. What is your sense from talking to people about their confidence that we're just going to ride this out, like everything else Trump does? I'm sorry you didn't have the camera on me when Alex was talking about the call to the insurance companies. Wait, no, that's definitely in my hands there. I mean, I was like, explain that. Explain that. Explain that. It just boggles the mind. Well, the idea that they did not anticipate this is really beyond the thinking of many people that when you think about why we never have done this before, well, one of the reasons is the street of where moves. And I would point out the idea Alex Dyer's straights is a plural, that's what I'm noting. And the thing is that you,

42:52first of all, I would talk to some military experts and Alex probably knows this, but you can fire a shoulder-launch missile and hit a tanker from the shore of Iran and even from the other side as well. And some of these missiles go quite a few kilometers, not to mention the drone. So the idea that this was did not appear to be anticipated, the idea that we're talking about now considering whether or not to do this suggests a real lack of thinking. And I would pay money for the guide to come forward at the discussion of this in the National Security Council, who raised his hand on the back and said, Mr. President, what about the straight of hormones? Or somebody said that. And I don't know if that person was fired before they had a chance to be in the meeting. Anyway, the thinking is that there's not a lot of confidence and getting back to what Alex was talking about about the IEA and the release. It's a good amount of oil, but there isn't issue as to the ability to get that oil to market. The flow is about two to three million barrels a day.

43:57The deficit is, I don't know, 10 to 20 million barrels a day. So there's going to be a deficit. And I have to say, all the stuff I talked about in the first segment, we're based upon some idea of, you know, $90 to $100 oil. I am seeing estimates out there, about $150 to $200 million. And $200 oil a barrel because of this deficit that's out there, because you cannot bring that oil to market. And you're missing a huge chunk of what's out there in the global commodity market. You know what I have to do tomorrow is sort of, is, I mean, I've seen, you know, numbers even higher than that contemplated in terms of the planning that people have to do. We should, we should play that out in terms of what that means for people pulling up to a gas station. I mean, I think so much of what they fail to prepare the country for is sort of a vacuum that it is our responsibility to sort of platform and talk through. So as I love to do to you, Steve, I'll put you on the spot on TV and ask you to help us with that. Thank you for being here today.

44:58We need to sneak in one more break. We'll be right back. We're back with Alex. I mean, it's all so bleak and it's so bad. You wonder how long even Trump thinks he can go like that? Well, you know, I will just make a plug for my podcast this week, which has the great Rachel Madden on it. I saw the clip so good. And she draws the various two point unsurprisingly that there's the question of like, how long Trump thinks he needs to own this thing and how much he actually does own the thing. And I think it is incumbent upon us as American voters, as journalists to hold him account for all the chaos that unspools in the wake of this, right? Trump can say, job is done and just try and brush this chaos under the rug. But the reality is he owns this destabilization. If Iran decides that not one leader of oil goes to any of the regime's enemies, then every country that's denied that oil, whether it's in Asia or elsewhere, is Trump's responsibility. If Vladimir Putin is greatly emboldened by this in his war

46:03in Ukraine because Ukraine has been sending interceptor drones to Iran and that has a measurable impact on that, that's Trump's problem too. And I think it's about not letting him off the hook for what I think he's going to try and beat a hasty exit on. I mean, I genuinely think he's looking at it all of this. He's lying to the American public and really creating an alternate narrative, which is not surprising. It's just complete and it's almost complete and just beginning. Yeah, and it's our job to stick a tomb for however long it takes. And to point out the absolute incoherence and the things he's saying with that, with that in mind, Alex is so nice to have hit the table. Thank you. And the podcast with Rachel, when does that come? Runaway countries out right now. And the Rachel episode episode. The Rachel episode, when like this morning. Okay, I saw some clips of it. Fantastic. All right, still ahead for us, Donald Trump and his mega allies are right now working overtime, rather desperately, trying to combat the essentially non-existent threat of voter fraud in America. We had that story when Dylan Whitehouse continues after Quick Break. Don't go anymore. Wherever your family is headed, every mile should feel like part of the adventure. With room

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