A Numbers Game | September 3, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story of the always down swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill. I have Alexander gone. He sent our number two of the numbers game at Vs in the sports betting network Vs in calm game plus I hard radio. YouTube TV. Of course, series except channel 158. No, it's not at 289. See, I did it again. 189. Hope you've made the switch to series. If that's how you take well, if you took his into series, you've already made this. Yeah, you have. But if you're listening through other means, the other ones that I just mentioned, just know that if you think about go into series, X. It's 189. We got that out of the way. Still to come, crack unscripted, Bill Cracken burger, and then Mike Reardon from right angle sports with a live college football release. Cleve TA standing by. Just want to read a few tweets here before. Patrick Kelly says forget great. I just want to be decent. Congratulations, Justin. Talking about Justin Emory. Yeah, we highlighted earlier on the show. He says, when does tank a blues come back? Who's curious? I guess that's a go. I think

1:00or the or clippers things specifically skit. So 360 people always forget the wins. But remember the losses, not me. I've tailed many a winning bet from Gil very much appreciated PS. I can't see your tennis plays on V sin. I am a pro subscriber. You know, I put those in later than normal last night. So I wonder if that's is, but anyway, on the show here earlier, bonzy on the men's side, Putin Seva on the lady side. And the great Andrew Maxwell's all over. He's getting him up there now. Thank you, Andrew. Not there Drew Maxwell, who I think the nickname I'm more shopping is cornbread as a tribute to old Sedrick Maxwell. No, yeah, no, I like it. Okay. What was going on there? Nothing. Okay, Kenny, okay, Kelly's Kelly's reacting to other things. And then I'm asking Kelly on air about his reactions. I shouldn't do that. Kenny Dillingham sexual. That is a real name. Value on Sanchez. Haven't been following this market since Wheeler blanked the bed on me. LOL. I don't know. There is. Listen, there's not value on Sanchez. There really isn't.

2:00Mrs. allowed to have one bad outing. He's first and majorly baseball and everything. What are we doing if he doesn't win the sial? Come on. Ladies and gentlemen, last time this man was on the phone and we love him. He's one of our favorite guests. But last time it was on there, we talked about his free. I want to say it again, free 2026 NFL preview guide. And then Kelly Bidley over here tried to make everything else he did free. You remember that? That's right. Yes, they do. It does. It's cleave TA everybody courtesy of the progressive guest line. Cleve was happening. What's up guys? Yeah, Kelly's my marketing agent that I'm from it after the fire cost me too much money. I think, but no, I appreciate you guys having me on. It's looking forward to looking forward to the season. So trying to get all my accounts ready and, you know, all my fantasy drafts done and all my survivor stuff ready. So it's a great time of year. OK, so let's go through that a second. How many fantasy leagues are you in? How many millions slash survivor entries are you going to do? Break it down for us.

3:00Yeah, so I tried to reduce my fantasy leagues. I mean, I think four now is my limit. And it's really it's just as not doing money or anything else. It's pure camaraderie and it's the you know, one time a year I get to get together with some old friends and that's the only reason to have that, you know, the those drafts to have that connection. So that's why I do that. I've got my God, I've got some local survivor pools and I've got five five survivors, circus survivors. I've got some, you know, some of the splash entries I haven't haven't submitted yet that I'm going to do the big one. I've got two circa millions, one that I split with a group of guys that have for a number of years and then one that are my own. So and then there's all sorts of other contests and pools that I'm not even thinking about right now. So there's a lot to a lot to remember. OK, with survivor, you at cleavanteletics.com, you have a survivor optimizer and you are it feels to me like you've done three different waves of additions to this this summer. Can you sort of describe all the

4:03different things you can do on the cleavanteletics.com survivor optimizer? Yeah, and I keep adding stuff on just because things keep popping up and I have suggestions and I try to add as much as I can for people, but yeah, so you can go and the first thing you do is you select the pool type. So you can obviously are our circus survivor. You've got the different, you know, splash sports ones and then you just have a standard, you know, your local 18 week pool. And if you've got double weeks, you can select, you know, which weeks are double weeks. So you kind of and the number of entries, right? Number of contestants. So you kind of format it to whatever pool that you're you're looking to join and then, you know, you go through. You know, you could just run the optimizer as is, but, you know, give you a full season path as to best of options. But there are a bunch of different features like if you want to lock in specific teams to specific weeks, you can do that for any week. So like if you think that I think the rams on Thanksgiving, maybe or, you know,

5:04whatever, you know, holiday weeks for example, you just want to lock in, you know, for sure you want to take that team or like Seattle plays Arizona and I think in week nine, you know, that might be the largest spread of the season. Like you can go ahead and lock that those teams in and then run the optimizer that way. You can, you know, you can look at maybe week 18. We know week 18 is obviously a coin flip, whether it matters to teams, whether it be a taking team or a team that, you know, is really good. They're just going to sit all their starters. And so you don't want to burn, you don't want to save a team that you can use early in the year for something in week 18. That may not matter. So you can click on a button. This is keep week 18 open and run the optimizer excluding week 18, which I think is a neat feature and can really change some of these paths that you see out there. And then the last thing that I really like and a lot of people are interested in and it's the big secret sauce with any of these huge survivor pools like Circa is the, you know, projecting the public pick ownership for each

6:05of these teams. And so my algorithm you know, projects the the weekly public pick percentage. But if you want to go in and play around and give your own, you know, your own projections, you can do that and see how that affects the different options that pop up. So those are the things that I think are pretty interesting. You know, you can click on different teams in the matrix below that shows you like the entire season and the win probability by week and then where they rank within each week. So there's a bunch of different things we hear I have on the site for you. That is super cool. So just to do it through the prism of Circa survivor, Circa Grande Simo, you could I think it's thanksgiving. I mean, the games of the thanksgiving Quirk are they're so competitive. I don't know who you would lock in but let's say you had a conviction, right? Let's just say you said Rams over the Packers. I don't know, right? So you lock in the Rams there. You lock in your Christmas as well. Then let's say with the Chargers gauntlet schedule coming you put the chargers in. Let's say

7:06week one. And then you could layer all that other stuff on top basically cleaves. So in other words, then you could do preach then you could put all of it in the same sort of search. They're part about the percentage of most likely for the other the rest of the pool to be picking in those other weeks. Yeah, you can. Yeah, you can even lock in like multiple, multiple teams, multiple weeks and then, you know, see how that affects the entire path, right? And you can say, all right, maybe, you know, maybe I don't like that team anymore on Thanksgiving. Let me try this team instead and just kind of you do a lot of trial and error. And I think that's what this is about is seeing how one will one change can can affect the entire path. So, you know, it gives you that option again. I have a matrix below to for the entire season. So you can see like, all right, if I don't want this team on Thanksgiving, what are the other options you could sort of by, you know, current win probability to. So it gives you like an idea of like, all right, now I want to go back and use this team instead. So again, it's it's it's a lot of work, but it's fun and it's a puzzle that is impossible to solve right easily. But we do our

8:08best and that's really the idea here is and you can save your entries too, by the way. So you don't have to keep coming in every time you can save up to the 25 I have a 25 entries that you can save as well. So you don't have to always every week, you know, go and redo everything because you're going to select which teams you've already used as you go along. But they'll be saved so you don't have to keep reselecting. So, and I'll add features if you have any more suggestions, like feel free to message me. I got buddies who are like who love this stuff and like, Hey, why don't you try this and I'll keep adding as much as I can. But I think it's something that if you're in a small pool, like a local pool, I think you got a gigantic advantage with this. If you're in circa or like one of the larger pools, at least you're like you're in the game, right? Like you're trying to be in a level playing field with some of the more sophisticated groups and syndicates that are using like real programs to to map the stuff out. So at least it gives you a shot. And just to be clear, the survivor optimizer was something that Kelly was trying to give away for free last time. But it is not free. How much is it for the survivor

9:08optimizer? So it's nine it's 99 bucks. You know, you just go on the website and subscribe. So I think for what you can get out of it, you know, it's pretty good value. And I also will, it's not just the optimizer. I do write up and I'll start starting in a few days kind of the different options and just the different considerations. Because I do think it's more than just pure numbers. Like the math will, there are math guys that only follow the wind probability and the value. I also do think there are, you know, some nuances where you should understand maybe the potential injuries, like different things that can affect you know, one team versus another different different considerations. So, you know, I'll have that qualitative aspect as well. So last thing on survivor, because I want to get to a week one thoughts and maybe some season long awards here. Obviously, a word or season long. Then what would the week one survivor survivor optimizer pick B based on the

10:08least amount of specifics that you would put in? Yeah, it's good to, the chargers are the top pick. I think now we've got about mid 30% projection for the pool, which gives you, you know, pretty good value on the chargers. I know a lot of people are saying, hey, try to be contrarian, try to, you know, a lot of people are going to be on them. But, you know, if you're in the mid 30s, percentage is actually not that bad for a team that is substantially substantially higher from a wind probability than a team like Jacksonville or, you know, or the lions who you're going to want to save because there's so many options in the future. And I'm not a big Jags guy. You know, we could talk about that. But, you know, to me, the chargers might end up being a pretty valuable pick in week one because of that. But there are other options and it gives you a backup option, one backup option, too, for example, you know, if you want to go ahead and see how that works out as well. So, you know, you could pick at least three different options in week one, you know, other than the chargers and see what happens to the rest of your path.

11:09Do you really think only 30% percentish will be on the chargers? I would have had a way higher than like 45 to 50% up, not 50, but 45% I would have had 30% is. So this is more art than science or this more art than science really hard to know. But, you know, I think if you look at any other public and again, there are other really good sites that give you, you know, good projections. I think they're all in the mid 30s. So I think kind of mid 30th to 37% is a fair number. You know, a lot of people will talk themselves out of it because again, it's so much discussion about holding teams back. I think that you get a little bit more contrairy and is them than you should be. Hang on, but you never know. Hang on, Cleve will finish that thought of it aside, then it's season long thoughts next. A numbers game on FESET, the sports betting network. Most people think sports betting is about picking winners. Ungambled is built on a different

12:10idea matched betting in arbitrage. It's a tool that teaches you how to use sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers to capture value, whether or not your side covers and ungambled backs it up. You don't turn a profit on your bank roll in eight weeks. They refund your membership to learn more. Start with a free guide at ungambled.com slash visa. And that's ungambled.com slash visa and use promo code visa for 10% off. Bet sharp. Look, square. Gill Alexander Kelly, build a line from Circa Resort because you know, downtown Las Vegas cleave TA kind enough to join us for a second segment. By the way, cleave CLEV TA on the old Twitter machine cleave analytics dot com is the website that houses the survivor optimizer also gives you the free the free downloadable, if you will, that'll work downloadable. Believe it. Sure. Yeah, they freed downloadable. You have the able to download an FL preview guide as well on the site. Cleve, let's get to let's get to week one because you're not a one trick pony. Such as about survivor. You're all obviously betting these week to week as we all do. You're, you know, you're in contests.

13:11You're also you also kind of come to Megapod and talk picks with us week one. What what excite you? What have you bet so far? Yes, actually a relatively light week. So or late week one versus history. I'll probably get some more down in the next few days. But yeah, the only thing I have really are totals. I've got one is gone. I took the Philly Washington under 47 and a half like three four weeks ago. And I did I heard Drew was on a couple days ago. I know he likes that one. Actually, you know, Fezick, by the way, you got to give him a hard time. He took he came out 46 and a half last Friday in your show like way too late. Well passed the key number 47. He would if that was anybody else, you know, he would give them a hard time murder. They killed him. Yeah, you give give Fezick a hard time. Sure. I'll do that. I like that. OK. So, but so that's long gone. So I'm not going to I wouldn't give that out anymore. I do like a number that's still out there Detroit, New Orleans under I got it 50 and a half

14:13two days ago. It's trending down a little bit. You can still find I think Sir that's 50 anything to me. I got I have this at 48. So I think 49 and a half 50 is fine. Like to me, I'm not buying the saints as like this juggernaut offense out of nowhere. You know, you're talking to someone who was touting Tyler Schuck rookie of the year halfway through last year at like 200 to one. So I watched like all of his snaps in the States at the end of the year and he was fine. But look, they face the single easiest schedule in the NFL to end that year. I mean, the only team that he faced as a starter that was a winning team was Rams. And that was his first start. They lost like 34 seven face five bottom 10 EPA past defenses like he padded his stats a lot against some bad teams. And so I, you know, I'm not really buying this as like the the resurgence seems to offense. I think I'll more as a good coach. I think one of the things I've seen out there is, you know, pace of play is going to be really fast. Well, they were number one in the NFL last year in pace. Like so that's already baked in.

15:14It's pretty much the same set of receivers as he had last year at the end of the year without Jordan Tyson. Like if Tyson was in there, might be a different story because I think he could be explosive. But I'm just not buying the Saints team as one that I want to back in the 50s. And then, you know, you look at the, the lions Jared Goff is actually really struggled historically in week one after not taking any preseason snaps. He's done it three times as a lion and they've gone over their team total all three times that the tap and actually under his passing prop in all three games. And you look at his EPA in those first weeks when he did not take any preseason snaps. You're talking about like games in the 12 15 17th ranking of the season. So it's you know, three, you know, some of his worst games of the entire season have come in week one. And I think they're going to be more of a run offense run heavy offense under Duke, Pensac who came from the Browns came from the Cardinals. He likes multiple tight end sets. I think they're going to try to establish a run a little bit more this year and not

16:16you know, expose golf to a media occur offensive line. So I do think it's going to be a little bit more run heavy from that perspective. And, you know, I just think that well, I'm not ready to buy the hype on shit. It's like this ascending quarterback. He's going to be 27 years old. Yes. People have to remember. I think the when he came out, the reason he dropped is because, you know, his ceiling was capped at that age. So I'm just not, we've seen it before. We saw it. Jayden Daniels last year. We've seen it with C.J. Straal. We saw it with Carson Wentz a number of years ago. Like it's not just a linear path up in year two, just because you had a good rookie year. And I don't think he's in that elite category. So I think he's going to be more of a flatlined trending, trending negatively, um, starting in week one. You and I are aligned on a couple of things. We're aligned on Caleb Williams with passing yards this year. We are aligned on Tyler Shuck too. One of the more bizarre things I've heard this off season is a seemingly widespread love for Tyler Shuck. And you pointed out, well, you know, I, and I've mentioned his inaccuracy down the field. Once you get past 20 yards,

17:17he's a really inaccurate quarterback. But you mentioned something that I shan't that I think needs to be emphasized again, which is he is older. He's 27 years old. When you are that age, maybe your floor is higher, but your ceiling is lower in terms of progression, right? In terms of improving. So there's that exactly. And that's the whole point like we're a quarterbacks when the older they get, the kind of the less value they are from an NFL perspective that you're essentially, this is who you are. This is kind of your, you're ceiling and we see that we've been next. Bone mix is similar in that fashion. You know, it's hard for him to take that leap. He's just kind of who he is. And so I think you could see something similar with Shuck. And if you look at, you know, what I try to do is isolate, you know, true drives, like actually how often do you get the ball in your own territory, drive length of the field and score? And so last year in that, that, you know, second half resurgence, they got a lot of short fields or defense created, you know, generate a lot of turnovers. Fifth highest rate of drive starting in opposing territory

18:19with Shuck. And so if you, if you strip that out, like his points per drive on kind of length of the field drives, was one of the worst in the NFL. So, you know, there's a little bit of noise when it comes to, you know, how he performed it in the last year. And yeah, they had to try this ATN who I think is overrated. You struggle last year, but I just don't see this offense being, you know, this isn't the, uh, the greatest show on turf here. Yeah. So this is under 50 in this game. You went under in this game. Is that the best? Yeah. Okay. So, and since it is a Saints Lions game and then we just picked on Tyler Shuck, can you do one of my favorite cleavet, eight side bars is at any point in any season, right? It comes up. It flares up. It's like a virus that flares up once the season. People start to talk about Jared Goff as an MVP candidate. Can you give us the cleavet EA talking points on why this will never happen? He'll never get the full credit for, you know, for any, you know, outstanding offense. Like we've seen the Lions have been a top five offense a number of times. He's put up monster stats.

19:20You know, I think he led the league in passing a couple of years ago. Like it's just and he's just never received any credit. And I don't think he's even gotten a top five votes. You don't get a sniff. I don't even know. Yeah, I don't even know what it would take for him to win MVP. You have to have to get like, you know, set an NFL record. I think for touchdowns and have Jameera Gibbs not be the reason why the offense has been unlocked. But it's it's almost impossible for a guy like him. Yeah, I should never say never, but it's almost impossible. 5,000 yards or something. One seed with a one loss or something. Maybe he's in the mix. And yeah, um, okay, speaking of season long awards here, I know you listen, we lean on your parameters for these awards all the time, Kelly and I during the season. Is there one award? And maybe you've talked about one already on the show, but maybe let's go with one you haven't. I can't remember if we did or not, but what's that award you want to season on that you like to talk about that you've made a bet on? I'm trying to think the last time what we talked about. I do think eight and

20:20Hutchinson, along with that we're talking about the Lions. I do think he, if he can play and all season not get hurt, I do think he's still valuable. I think, you know, obviously after Miles Garrett, he's the guy that I would attack from a defensive player of the year. Stand point like if you strip out two years ago, he was on pace for like 25 sacks before he got hurt. It was knocked out for the season if you remember him. I think he's going to be a lot of the season if you remember that last year at a really nice season. I think they're going to be face, you know, they've got the easiest schedule in the NFL. So they're going to have the lead a lot. He's going to be able to kind of pin his ears back and I think he can rack up a lot of sacks and look as great as Miles Garrett is. He is, you know, getting getting up there in age. He's going to be 31. Aaron Donald coming back, I think is going to affect him like is he going to get all the credit if this is like an elite top five defense or is Donald going to take some of that away. You know, that could be something, you know, it's really hard to go and top what he did last year.

21:21So I think it's going to be really difficult for Miles Garrett to win it again. And then you've got Will Anderson. Will Anderson is on the best defense in the NFL. But you know, his numbers are not as, you know, elite from a sack perspective as you think. So I do think Hutchinson has a shot to win it this year. If he can stay healthy and if that schedule ends up being as bad from an opposing quarterback, same point of the game. Yeah, and we just flashed up again, one of the things you get with Cleveland Kelly and I again, we lean on these all year for defensive player the year. You got to have 11 sacks. It's you it's almost always a defensive lineman. It's almost always from a playoff team. And Aiden Hutchinson would check all three of those boxes. One would think with the Detroit lines this year. Hutchinson third in the market behind Miles Garrett and Will Anderson Jr. Aiden Hutchinson plus seven fifty to win defensive player the year. And then you know, you know, I think it's going to be a good example of the game. And then you know, I think it's going to be a good example of the game. And then you know, I think you have 20 to 50 to win defensive player the year. So once again, it's cleavantelidics.com. The free 2026 NFL Preview Guides still there. Still they're still what? Six days away from the beginning of the season. One of the best out there.

22:21You get it. You're still working on your prep work you need to go check it out and really digest the bowl. A lot of people look at other preview guys are like, there's too much for me. Cleveland is not that way. And of course the survivor optimizer as well as we talked about. That part not free but well worth it. Cleveland, I can't thank you enough. Man, appreciate it. I appreciate you guys. T.A., C-L-E-V-T-A on Twitter, one of the great NFL follow. Absolutely. Period. Coming back, how about a live college football release from right-angle sports in Mike Gordon? Let's go. He's got some splenit to do on FSU. Let's talk about that too. Next. A numbers game on FESET, the Sports Betty Network. Back on a numbers game live from Circa Resorts, Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Derek Stevens, Shangrall on the desert. It's Gilaul, Alexander. Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets being in the book. Buddhist man, he just said, good lord. We've made a mess of the tennis picks on the picks page.

23:22It's a too many cooks in the kitchen situation. Everybody's trying to get some things fixed and yeah, it starts with me putting them in later and I think that caused havoc. But one of the highlights of the tennis picks page right now is that apparently I have both Putin, Seva, and Zheng Xin went in this one match where they play each other and they're both huge plus money. So that's awesome. Again, the picks are bonzy on the men's side. Yeah. Putin, Seva on the lady side. We will keep repeating them here. It's like you say best listeners in the game, right? I can't believe how many tweets, how many emails I'm getting over this. It's so great. Bill ladies losing his mind downstairs trying to help us figure it out. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's a comical. And I got a shout out for the next show promo for prop points coming up next Adam Schefter. Joining John Hansen. So that's a good one. He's coming up here in just a couple hours. Shifty. As the cool kids call him. Sorry. Patrick Kelly said the tweet earlier was about the Justin Emory. It was about Justin Emory. Do an excellent numbers and logic to go from good to great and that I just want to get

24:24to miss. So please give me some more of those fantastic, fantastic, fantastic betting strategies from him. Being I believe the brain dead tank of a loser. Okay. That's he was explaining his previous tweet. Yeah. Yeah. Got it now. Love it. Love it. Love it. Go check that out at vason.com. Great article by Justin Emory. Um, might be on my list of next to book on the show. It's, it's, it's Pablo Torren. And then it's Justin Emory. Let's get Pablo on. Let's get Justin on. Yeah. Waiting on that text message from Pablo. Yeah. Oh, Jackson Jim Campbell as a subscriber. I love the betting guides. Do either of you know if there will be one for the NHL this season. Do we do an NHL betting guide? Yeah. I think we did. Never mind. Tell us into me. Yeah. Who am I asking? I think it was just on the site. Right. I think we put it on the site. Now you're asking me too many questions. Yeah. Mr. Drew Fitty. Gills play for Jagged. Today's the raw price or listen to the wrong one. Okay. Can this be clarified? Okay. He goes, of course, it was a bad day. I should say, but you know sports. Yeah. It was rules for society. Hey, Jens, are we sure that corruption doesn't infiltrate everything we do on a day-to-day basis for the planes? We believe in the fact that we're going to be able to do it.

25:25We're going to be able to do it. You're in success. I really don't think I'm not working with you. You're wondering if you're in success whether people aresweise. You're not caring for them. I had an intention that I wanted to take into account. Just, if we should... If you do say life is blind, then you can try, because that time went way too quickly. Think of it so special. Yeah. Right. evening. Yeah, he's pointing out I have both both Putin seven and Zhang at plus dude 35. Patrick Kelly also adds floor higher ceiling lower sounds like safe escalator riding guidance as well. Oh, yeah. Okay. Ladies, gentlemen, he is here to release a college football play, but I want to have a broader discussion about college football before that beforehand. It's Mike Reardon from right angle sports. Kind enough to join us on this Thursday. Mike, good morning to you, sir. Good morning. Thanks for having us on after last weeks, uh, FSU release. Yes, which didn't go well, which brings up a broader question.

26:27It's only one play, but we brings up a broader question, which is because I had Todd Wichnev on earlier this week. We had Todd Wichnev on it. And we got in this whole, you know, Todd's very big on. He's an in-game guy versus a pre-flop guy to begin with, but he pointed out and I agree with him, which is, you know, what are we really, we say this going into the NFL season? What do we really know? College football more than anything these days, right? With all that goes on in the world of transfer portals is probably hard to wrap your arms around than anything now. And then you see the power rankings and it's hard not to let the, you know, the average person is hard not to let that seep into your brain as some kind of truth. Do you find that it is a harder world to deal with now in college football, specifically through the lens of power ranking? Well, absolutely. It's never been harder to rate a team for the upcoming season. You know, the way it used to work, I've been doing this for about 20 years and, you know, I've had mentor, my mentor has been at Golden for obviously the whole time. And I've, you know, spent a lot of time reading the work of Dr. Bob. I used to, the great Dave Mollinsky.

27:31I used to spend time reading his stuff, watching his stuff. I even Alan Boston, crazy Alan Boston loved to, you know, love watching his stuff. And anyway, the, the old model used to be, let's look at last year's rating. That was kind of our anchor, whether it was the program rating or just the general rating for the team last year. And then you adjust like how many starters are back, whether the returners look like how many guys did they lose to the NFL. And it was always don't move too far. Let's not overreact and then just make subtle adjustments, you know, a few points up, few points down. And, you know, that kind of changed in 2024. As soon as we had unlimited transfers, you know, it used to be you had to sit out a year. Once you could transfer pretty much every year. And once you could start getting paid and go wherever they were and give you the most money, that just absolutely changed everything immediately. Basketball used to be the sport you could win immediately at. Like if you, you know, John Calipari 10 years ago, if you dropped him into any school, he's going to get two or three great players in its basketball. So that's good enough. You know, he'd be a top 10 team immediately.

28:31Football, it was always, it takes time. You know, Frank Beamer, I grew up in Harrisonburg, Virginia. My parents taught accounting at James Madison. Frank Beamer was always the story of, like, give the coach time. He was six years in and he was 24 and 40. He went two and eight in his six year and everyone wanted him fire. The president wanted him fire. Some reason the 80s stuck with them and, you know, they ended up going to 23 straight bulls. So that was always the stick with it, you know, Phil Steele always talks about third year. The coach has his guys. He's developed them. They, you know, wherever you're redshirted, you've been in the weight room. That was how you built a program in football. It took time. Now, once, you know, what the signety did from James Madison to Indiana, he brought about 20 players over to kind of be the core of his first team there. And they obviously made the playoffs, which is incredible. Indiana, I think they were the first team to lose 700 games in power four. So you could say they were the worst power four team ever. He took them to the playoffs. Obviously won a national title last year. You know, he's, he's done amazing things and pretty much what signety has done has sped up the timeline for all fans

29:36and athletic directors. And so what he kind of started and I'm not saying my partner Jeff coined this term. I'm sure someone else has said it many times, but he calls it the lift and shift. And so what's going on now is you see this with goalish at Auburn. He took a lot, most of his, a lot of his offense from USF to Auburn. And then what you see at Oklahoma State, you know, Morris from North Texas there. He took a bunch of the offense and mess and maker some receivers. And in that case, Oklahoma State, we've got them about 15 points better, power rating-wise than last year, which is insane. He brought about 88 transfers in and North Texas. They're down 13 points, obviously, because they lost a lot. So anyway, what it comes down to is last year's rating is probably never been more irrelevant. But sometimes you want to look at the last year team of another team to check the rating of your this year team. All right, Mike, the time we've all been waiting for. Let's put up the procedure. Once again, for those who forgot how this works, the right angle

30:39sports release procedure, which Steve Fesik always loves to do with any of his picks. What do you know? He stole it from them. Mike is going to give us a game in college football. You're going to add the bet to your bet slip before you bet it, though. Right. We'll give you 30 seconds to find the bet. You can put it in your bet slip. 30 seconds. We'll just hem and haul for 30 seconds. And then Mike will say go or cancel it. He says go bet it immediately. If he says cancel, it is not a bet. You'll remove it from your bet slip. We'll start the whole process over again. I like process or process process. I'll process. Me too. I don't know why I said process right. This is an England. All right, Mike. You're on it. You're on it. You're on it. What do we got? Yeah. So the first bet that we will put in our bet slip for a possible bet is 177 North Texas Indiana over 55 and a half. 177 is the rotation number. Old school. North Texas Indiana. I don't know if you know this Kelly. They're defending champs over over 55 and a half. Now you're

31:43not going to bet it yet. You're putting in your bet slip. I just want to say as we're stalling here for people to put in their bet slip. They Fernando Mendoza can have another big year. Are we just going to act? Not there. He's not. We're going to act like Mike Reardon's chair is not like a star Trek. He's got a sweet game or a chair. Man, it's better for the back. William Shatner. It's beautiful. Yeah. Absolutely. It is definitely better for the back. I used to sit in these theater seats and all the sudden my back was shot. We've we've improved the seat. Maybe he's not great for TV, but that's what we're doing right now, Gil. Okay. Yeah, it's great. It's a great office chair. I like the other ones though with the Reardon group on there. That stuck out to me too. Okay. I think we've given everybody enough time again in your bet slip now. 177 North Texas Indiana over 55. Mike, what's the deal? What do we do? 177 North Texas Indiana over 55 is a go bet North Texas Indiana over 55 and a half. Go everybody go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Click it on and now we watch the Christmas tree move. Think FSU from 31 to 32. Lickety split

32:46last week. We will see where this over the North Texas Indiana game goes here in very short time. Want to give some words on why exactly the 45 seconds, Mike? Of course, Gil. Yeah. So, you know, we to say the most obvious thing. Indiana is going to do most of the work here, but the good news is Cignetti loves to score as a big favor when they've been favorites of 28 points or more. His teams themselves have averaged 56 points per game. They're 12 and 4 to the over Indiana, 61 to the over in these situations. Eight and three to the over in the second half, which just shows you in these over match situations. Cignetti keeps his starters in and absolutely puts the, you know, hits the gas. He's absolutely willing to kind of run it up and he just like he likes to keep, you know, excellence going at all times. Yeah, Cignetti, four straight, J.M. You quarterback, so we have conference player of the year. He's got Hoover this year in St. Arm talent. So I think they're going to he's going to fix the turnover problem. North Texas has got some injuries at the quarterback position Jenkins Johnson out for the year.

33:47Canada been the best cornerback in camp worth keeping an eye on his status for this week. And then anything you might do and he does is a bonus. I appreciate it. Of course. Thank you. I will. A numbers game on. He said these sports betting network. Let's not slip on the average Joe contest. Edge boots average Joe contest puts you in the same pick and format as the circuit Friday football invitational. The humans invitational. The one that pros play top average Joe earns a spot in next year's circuit invitational field. It's free to play. You can register any time during the season. Edge boost is offering its customers a $1,000 deposit if you finish first for the week. Don't have an edge boost account yet. Sign up at edge boost dot I.O. With promo code V.C. and fund. Well, there's a typo there and make sure your account is funded with at least $100. We added a word and have fun funding. That's right. Enter the contest today at bc.com slash Joe that's visa.com slash Joe. Not only do we get tweets, we get texts bill 80.

34:52Beeson founder. NHL guide on the site. Not PDF. I got to write the second time. You give a Kelly Bidlin two times to get that's right. Kid does it. So it's not a full guide. It's on the site. That's right. Yeah. We're doing the same things last year. Okay. Got it. Okay. The Mike Reardon right angle sports release went from 55 and a half to 56 and a half and then to 57. Do I have a 57 and a half yet on my board? Let's see. Hang in tough at 57. Hang in tough at 57. Yeah. Now Christian will hide on Twitter says the draft King line moved to 56 and a half before Mike said go laughing emoji. Now what's the reason for that is because people don't believe that we're going to do a cancel and one of the tells there is that we were too close to the end of the segment. So I think some people were like, oh, they're not doing a cancel. And so they jumped the gun. Oh, this is like this is like my favorite. So we got to do the releases earlier in the second call. It's a good call. The that's a good call. Because going. I knew there wasn't going to be a cancel. So yeah, it's a good call. The

35:52it's kind of like when you watch this was always my favorite. You know, you know, I used to be a big poker player. Poker on TV always like drove me nuts though because you're like, all right, it's final table. We're down to the final two. Yeah. It's nine fifty eight. That's right. Next show starts at 10 o'clock. Oh, this guy's going to all it. What do you think? It's going to happen. That's like the when I was I think I bring this up once every few years when Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson were feuding at the height of the Cowboys dynasty. And there was this. Oh my God, there's a press conference. Is he going to be fired or is he going to stay? What's going to happen? What's going to happen? And Jimmy Johnson comes out in a suit. And I'm like, he's gone. It's like a tell on everything. He's not wearing a suit if he's still the Cowboys coach. Fred Leonard's on Twitter. Random question. But you have any idea how a proxy service would handle a customer that rebies into circus survivor after having lost on the Seattle Rams games next week. Thanks. I don't think there's any strangeness to that. You would just go to the same proxy and

36:57give him another thousand dollars. I don't know what the exact question is that he's asking. You mean because it would require? I think because you've already signed up. Yes. And you've gone through that process. Yeah, what process at that time? You've gone through that process. So you're wondering, could they just add it to your old? You have to sign up and say, I think what would happen to happen is you would have to sign up again going through the whole process again, but maybe using a different username for your newer entries. Oh, man. Okay. So I was checking over the rules yesterday just to confirm just to confirm like the deadline because I haven't signed up yet. I don't know if you know there were a lot of details in there about it. So I really encourage you to go read the house rules for the contest that's in place. That is an interesting question though. I had not thought about it that way. I would I would it is, but people have done this. It's not like you can't do it. So it's just a question. Right. No, totally. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's a good question. Just one that going like there's no riddle involved. Yeah. Yeah. Um, that's my guess, but Fred, I would I would ask the authorities. Yeah.

38:04You definitely don't want to be planning that way, right? And then lay all 10 on those Ram C-hawks or some, you know, one of those early games that not have a chance to rebuy if that was what your plan was. Yeah. All right. Let's recap the bets on today's show because crack is coming up at the top of the hour. Obviously, uh, the two tennis plays today. If you're, if you're looking at visa.com slash picks, it's completely obvious. The picks are on the men's side. It's Benjamin Bonzi. Zach is on Benjamin Bonzi as well. He told us, uh, I didn't know that plus one 23 versus Ignacio Boussay. And then on the lady side, big dog, Yulea Putin, Seva plus two 35 versus Jens Shenwen. I said, how did Yulea Putin, Seva at Indian Wells? He was just chilling in the lobby. I remember that. Nobody knew who she was. She's 20th ranked player in the world. Gilded though. I'm like, hello, Miss Putin, Seva. She was like, oh my god, somebody recognized me. Do you go up with one of those comically big tennis balls? Go ahead and get your autograph. No, I just kept it moving because it's Yulea Putin, Seva. It was somebody else. I might have an I know, I'm tight. Also Red Sox, Oh and two to start the month of September. That's not good.

39:0428 to one, but the blue J's with an 11 and nothing win yesterday behind Dylan Seas. Really, it was that they, they just botched a base is loaded situation in the second. What was like a six to nothing game should have been a one to nothing game. Blue J's go on to crush the guardians. 11 and nothing. So that's good for our plus 23 25 most wins in September. And then of course Caleb Williams passing yards, leader 20 to one, Nick Benito, defensive player, the year 14 to one, sir. NFL week one bets for me. Jags Jets six point T's or Jags Texans six point T's or Bucks, Bengals under 51 and a half Broncos plus three. Okay, I should also mention on the tennis. We have Carlitos to win the men's side at plus 175. He's down to plus 135. We have Ega to win the lady side at seven to one. She's up a set here in round two already this morning. What did I live out? Danielle Medvedev to win Q three on the men's side at seven to one, looking pretty good. Amanda Nisimova to win her quarter on the lady side four to one. The one, the one, the one

40:04future we did lose was Grigicava long shot to win her quarter at 14 to one. Zach with his tennis plays in addition to being on Bonzi with me. He's on a few dogs beyond that on the men's side. Alexei Popperin plus 126 versus Alejandro Tabilo. Jan Leonard Strouff versus Francisco Surrindolo, the good brother Surrindolo. Yes, the good Surrindolo. And Dallabor, Sercina plus 128 versus Lutziano Darderi. Okay, there's got to be something wrong with our system or something. So yes, these are Zach's plays because Zach is also just texted me informing me that the Darderi play has showed up on the site at plus money as well. So be careful. He's on. Oh, hey, Severcina. Is that what you just said? Sercina. Yeah. Sercina. He's on Sercina, not Darderi. Sercina, not Darderi. It's a mess. It's a mess this morning. John Balducci, right angle chest code. If you're listening to serious, you're about 30 seconds ahead of streaming services. Oh, that's what could be at play. Jason Stark said the same thing. Hey, don't think it was a problem

41:06when released. I think it was as it was the listening medium. I'm on serious. And I got the number fine. He's peg on Delay for watching on the app. So then we have a serious person saying no, serious XM189 is actually good. The app is the one that's behind. Well, you know, we're just going to have all these potty mouths come on this show. And this is why we got to put these delays in delays and delays and delays. Have I mentioned y'all the best listeners ever? Any format of radio make-o shades of make-o. Good way to punish the early goers would be to go. Hold on, move. Would be go Oppo on the play like the like prepping over then tell people to go under. Oh, instead of a cancel just go Oppo, Oppo. I think Fezick does that as a joke when he does his as well. And then John, you another factor in writing or sports lines movie before the plays are heard on the broadcasts. That different methods of listening. Yes, two are watching. Vison have different time lags. Well, we can do our part and do them earlier in the second. Let's put it that way. Yeah. Okay. Zach. It's week two for us. Yeah. He's beginning your season, right? It's week one.

42:08It's not even week two. That's right. It's week one. That's right. Because we still calls things week zero for some reason. Some reason. Zach also with his college football plays Miami Stanford tomorrow night in Palo Alto over 47 and a half, two lane plus nine and a half versus Duke. And then in one of the bigger marquee matchups of week one LSU minus 10 versus Clemson. Zach bringing it strong this morning. And then of course the right angle sports play. Let's not forget what we're talking about north Texas, Indiana was over 55 and a half. But once again, that's already up to 57. I probably should have asked the question also not being in mid season form. Cut off. What should you play this until? It's a good call. But right now it is hangin tough as new kids on the blockies to say hangin tough at 57. Hey, if you were interested in the Indiana side, that number, that wasn't really moved. And they, you know, lane 40 points a little bit better at a total 57.55. What week one bets is over week one, you've only made the two totals play so far? NFL. Yeah. NFL pardon me. College football. I'm in on this, by the way.

43:13I am in on this. I've got one other circle. I've got one other circle, but we're having dinner with his gentleman tonight. I need to confirm it before I. Oh, right. Randy McKay. The old Randy McKay. Randy McKay who barged into the studio. You know, you're not allowed to barge into the studio, by the way. Only Randy McKay's allowed to do it. But he barged in and Randy McKay was like, Hey, here's a pick, but don't say anything. Exactly. So, so I will confirm that tonight. And then we'll talk about it. Oh, yeah. So yeah, we want NFL. Yeah, I've got the two teasers, two teasers in one total one side. So Jags with the Jets, Jags with the Texans. And guess what if the Texans end up being favorites in that game closed? I think they close favorites. I'm going to be teasing up the bill side too and hope from open to middle that. Bucks, bang goes under 51 and a half is the total I've bet. And then Broncos plus three at minus 120 against the Chiefs Monday night, which I really like that. I don't necessarily care about being on the same side of something as some people in whatever sports you're handicapping. One of the guys though that I really like love if I'm on the same side of his cleave. And so I was,

44:17I was happy to hear the first of all, Mike Caleb Williams top passing yards. He like a few days ago was like I wouldn't hate that play at all like randomly. Was that he didn't even know about mine. And then this morning our opinions on Tyler Schuck sort of jibing. I was like, thank God, it's not just me. He randomly hated on the Jags too on Twitter right after I did brought up these. And then he said it on there. He said randomly. I don't know if that was random or not. He might not like my Jaguars so the week was plays. Bill Krakenberger unscripted next. It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.