A Numbers Game | March 27, 2026 | Hour 3

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1:01The numbers told the story to always do. Swandled to idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I by Xander gone. V sent our number three of a numbers game at V sent these sports betting our V sent.com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV and of course, series six of channel 158. Kill Alexander Kelly is behind the glass because physics about to join us for physics Fridays. I am still behind on the tweets. I want to get some more of these. This is from Pauli 68 says what year did the NBA MVP officially become the MOP most offensive player. SGA, one of the best defenders in the league. And Wembee speaks for itself, but nobody can tell me Yoke, it's your Luca. Have a good defensive rating. Well, Pauli, you're right. But most of these, most of these voters are always going to go with the offensive stats. Colin Murphy. Action points are the difference. I was wondering about our V sent challenge where V sent prime time is in first place. I think they're two and a half games ahead of us. We're in third place and money moves with JVT's right in between us.

2:02As far as the V sent shows are concerned, he says action points, but then there's the action points column where a numbers game is murdering everybody. And I wanted to know what are these action points? Is action points are the difference between your bet and the result. It's like the old points bet model. For example, if you bet a team laying 10 points and you bet that side and they win by 20, then you would get 10 action points, essentially point differential. So in other words, a numbers game is by far the most unfortunate of all these teams. We have a plus 93.5 action point rating. The next best is plus 44. We're killing it. We shouldn't be 17 and 17. We should be way better than that. Oh man, bad luck once again. What have we done? Just give us the belt. That's right, Kelly's in my air. Just give us the belt. Indiana Jet. Who chopped at the end of Survivor a couple of years back says, want to get really nuts to your take a blues and just add women's college hoops, Yukon, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina to the NBA tankathon, Parley for an 11 teamer at plus 144 on Fandall.

3:05Not terrible. Idea Tim Bowers. I'm not a superstitious person, but the tennis picks downfall these last couple of days started midweek when a listener tweeted he was going to start following Gil's tennis picks more. Yes, was that you Tim? I can't remember if you're talking about yourself or not. And then there's Rob Graham. That four players on the floor is just and now this is in capitals. More evidence, it's all scripted. There's a reason why all in capitals, the players are getting a huge in capitals salary with the coaches and refs. OK, Rob, can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but if you're being serious, come on. Dan Groschel, like Dalin Kuffman, middle school hoops team ran the wrong way, play several times. Unlike Dalin, we played smart team slash coaches who saw right through us most of the time, but the few times it worked for us were magical. And Scott New York mess also points out the action points how much you covered or lost to the spread. If you lay two and a half team wins by 10, you're plus seven and a half action points. There are more of these, but ladies and gentlemen, it is time. For Physic Fridays, let's go. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge.

4:06It's time for Physic Fridays. With Steve Physic, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, how you doing, sir? So I need to talk back your 17 and 17 record. I'm going full Joe Pita here on you. Pathagorean points distribution. You're really 22 and 12. Now your record 17 and 17, but because you're plus 93 and a half, if you replayed it and you told me, hey, I'm working to go in the past and your teams are going to outscore the opponents teams against the spread by 93 points. You bet on us. Absolutely. So in fact, when you run a query, it is oftentimes much more significant. The action point differential than the against the spread differential, the only caution I would give if that if you do play overs, you're going to always do well with the action points. And if you play unders, you're going to do lousy because triple over times and things. You'll have games that go over by fifth. We weren't playing, generally. We were not playing totals at all. We were playing sides and we had like five horrific beats in the second round.

5:08Maybe you can ask for like an action point belt. Just give us our action points belt. Yeah, that's right. Steve Physic here. No cabana for you, none. At PhysExports on Twitter, follow at your own peril. Much more gentlemanly in real life, some would say. Not all, by the way, some would also say in real life, not so gentlemanly. That's fair assessment by some. Yes. OK, on the tennis court, compared to Todd Wischneve, who is very gentlemanly, Todd, not gentlemanly. Todd, how competitive? I'm sure we're not going to hear about that on the group chat today. By the way, Todd Wischneve, fear of missing out, plus 181 units. Everyone has been betting him, except for the bear, Chris Velika, who is in Buenos Aires or someplace in that part of the world. All right, let's start with, we'll get back to basketball. Let's start with Major League Baseball, because I feel like after opening day, probably didn't give enough juice today, because we're all wrapped up in the sweet 16. The way too early Major League Baseball opening day take aways, because I know you do this kind of thing.

6:08The ball might be juice. We can't be, already. We can't, like Todd and Will are like, boy, that ball is carrying him in the bird, you know, in Pittsburgh. But it's interesting, so Joe Pita texted me. And he's like, well, way too early, but glad you guys are friends. Love Joe Pita. So he's like, well, the last two years, every fly ball goes out of the stadium, 11.8% of the time, opening day, 13.5%. Now that's not conclusive, necessarily, but it certainly does something to keep an eye on. Something to keep an eye on in a joke correctly pointed out. Now he's like, you really need to geek out. If you just took a look at the launch angle and the exit velocity, for instance, if the exit velocity is 102, and it's a 38% launch angle, you know, it should be, it should go 440 feet or whatever, and you could compare it. But then obviously, it depends upon the temperature and the barometric pressure to be able to, it's a lot of calculations to geek out. Roxy Roxboro, first person to figure this stuff out,

7:08when he, the baseball banner. No, season wins from Roxy this year. No, because you know what he said to me, he always said to me when he would come on the show, he would always give his season win totals. He was going five and one, he was, you know, six and two. He'd have these great records every year, but he always said to me, he goes, Gil, the first year I have a losing record, I'm not doing it anymore. Yeah, but Will Hill says that all the time and he's always back the next day. No, Will's line is, I'm never betting again. And then 8 AM, I got luck that's under. But then I think Roxy went like, what, three and four or something like that, and he never came on the show again. Amazing. To do it. Clearly, he's not in the town business. No, he is not. But would you like me to give you the floor for your rant about how baseball is not bettable anymore? What would you like to do that whole thing? It's your show, do you think? Yeah, no, please. I'd love to hear. Hey, in a baseball used to be the most beatable sport. Everyone would talk about that. Why? Because they had the diamond. They didn't just have a diamond. I was my jam back in the day. They had a nickel line. Yeah. So I like 1995, Barbury Coast and Caesars, both did this. They were independent books at the time.

8:09Two equal teams or plans, like one team's minus one or three, the other teams, minus one or two. Now, minus one 10, minus one 10. Minus one or three, minus one or two. Todd Wischneve is rollerblading up and down the strip, betting into the nickel line. Cake. Yeah, it is. And now, so we go to the diamond. Great deal. So think about this. So on the diamond line, and it's even better with the bigger favorite. It goes all the way up to like minus 180 plus 170. Well, to quote from the Godfather, the diamond line doesn't have the muscle it used to have. It's getting moved out in New York. It's getting moved out of Vegas. It's like, it's really hard to find. So Southpoint still has it, not up to minus 170, but like up to minus 150. Notably, it was taken away at the Southpoint for some period of time and they brought it back. Is that right? I think an edict from above. This is not my mish book. Excellent. Edict, you know, these sports books, like I was picking, it was an edict from above to take it away. Chrissy would have never taken it away. Yes, yes. So I don't want to pick on any book. So it's like, it's a book that sounds like Bet Oceans or Bet Ponds.

9:10Yeah. And they've got like the splits where it's like, what's this? It's like minus on a baseball game. It's like minus 158 plus 124. Bet streams. Yeah. It's just, it's betting pond scum. Because, and then the live is even worse. Like God couldn't beat that kind of differential. And then when they host a show, they're like, well, who do you like minus, do you like Toronto minus 160? Or do you like Tampa plus 122? And it's like, I don't like either. I like having a gaming license. But with the prediction models and the betting exchanges coming in, the sportsbooks are just literally here. We don't want your business anymore. Go on over to our competitors. They're like, clueless. You know, though, this was, this was part of the reason. So when I, when I was working with Dr. Bob back in the day, 2012, I had a great, great year. 2013, I had a terrible year, 2014. Again, I had a great, great year betting baseball. But as 2015 and 2016 rolled around, I kind of broke even both of those years. I would, I, I told Bob, I was like, I don't think like,

10:11because Bob always wanted me to wait till the morning of to release because his philosophy is always, if you do it at night, the overnight half the country's going to be asleep. It's not, we can't do it that way. And I said to my go, these things are moving earlier and earlier. We, like, I can't do it the morning of anyway. You used to be able to get away with that up until about 2015. And so it was kind of like the biggest reason. Also, in addition to just breaking, you can't beat it anymore if you're releasing that. And it used to be so beatable. So like you would run your models. I use one game and by example, so Texas is minus 120. You know Texas is really good overnight. You bet it minus 120. You get up in the morning and it's Texas minus 140. But you know, they should be minus 160, right? Bang, you give it to your clients minus 140. And then an hour later, still a good bet. Yeah, the no big should be the fair line. Someone might say, I call it the no big, should be like minus 153 plus 153. So you're getting 13 cents of CLV, you know, based upon that, you know, it's funny about and what's happens, people are beating each other to the punch left and right.

11:12So I had a great discussion. There's a great NBA candy caper. I don't know if you know him, mom. It's at JB Wins big. Have you had, do you know JB? Do you know Jeff? So he's a prop specialist and he's killing it. And he gives out his props five AM Pacific, eight AM Eastern. The Eastern books are open and the like. And he's like, well, I want to get to it, you know, before the numbers move. And what was hilarious is I was talking to him about a really gifted college basketball candy caper, Kyle Hunter. And he was like, oh, that Kyle, he gives out stuff like it, like at one AM the night before I can't get down on this stuff. And I'm like, well, I can because it's 10 o'clock Pacific. And it's like, is there really that big of a difference between releasing a 10 PM Pacific and five AM Pacific? I mean, so you can see everyone's just, it's like everyone wants to be the first of the punch and take out the mistakes. Absolutely. So what's the upshadow of that? If you're not betting on exchanges in baseball, you're doing this wrong. If you're betting the day of the game, okay? The exchange is going to do you no good against the openers

12:13because there's no liquid market. The market's not set. So until the market makers are rewarded for putting up prices, which they're not right now, you're, so there's no offer. So there's no action. There's no liquidity when the lines first come up. So betting the day before is absolutely the way to go. But these sports books, like you hear all the time, there's experts out there saying, oh, the odds makers hate baseball. Well, of course, it's their worst sport because they're getting, look at the volume that they're taking. It's so much smaller on a Wednesday Cubs game. You know, it regly than there is on a Monday night football game. More with Fezick on the other side. It's a numbers game at Beeson, the sports betting network. Let me get your attention real quick podcast listeners. It's March, which means the madness is officially upon us, of course. And the folks at Beeson have really gone crazy with this one. I'm being told right now, my earpiece being told, that for just $29.99, you can get unlimited access to Beeson Pro through May 1st. I'm talking picks throughout the tournament, public betting data for every single game, plus sharp tools, projections, articles, and more.

13:16Just click the link in the description to get started. It's March, baby. All right, now back to the show. That's pure automotive joy. I'm Peter, the owner of Musclecar, Jr. It started as a hobby. Then I started posting about it. Before I knew it, I built a business for storing muscle cars on Facebook Marketplace. And the community of car lovers on Instagram. Today, new customers send me what's out messages from all over. Not bad for a hobby. Learn how meta helps over 35 million American businesses, like Peter's Grow, at meta.com slash community. Right now, new fan dual customers can get up to $300 back in bonus bets every day for 10 days. Place the tournament bet using the token, and if it doesn't win, you'll get up to $300 back in bonus bets every single day for 10 days straight. You can even mix things up with same game parlays for a shot at a bigger payout. Fan dual, it's time to dance. 21 plus in present and select seats. Bonus bets are nonwithdrawable and expire seven days

14:16after receive. Tokens are received in increments of one per day. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandal.com. Gamlin problem called 1-800-Gamler. OK, let's go. A numbers game on FESET, these sports betting network. A numbers game, proudly brought you by Profitex. If you're not on Profitex yet, now's the time. Sign up. Buy April 6th, purchase at least $25, and you'll get a free $25. Then jump into their King of March contest, you go in free trips worth up to $5,000, or even $10,000. This is the code Vsyn M M make your first purchase. Then learn about the contest on their home page and start playing. No entry fee required. Hit $1,000 in volume. You're entered for the $5,000 trip. Hit $10,000 in for the $10,000 trip. Win 10 picks hit the volume. And every additional 10 wins gets you another entry. Download Profit X. Use code Vsyn M M M M as in March Madness. Make your first purchase and take your shot at becoming the king of March. Gillette Alexander, Steve Fesik.

15:18We get tweets at being in the book. Still try to catch up on these Patrick Michael. My solution for tanking in the NBA. 16 teams make the playoffs. Top 16 will pick as they usually do like the NFL. Does the champion picks 30th? The runner up picks 29th. The two semifinals picks 28th and 27th and so on. The 17th place team will then pick first overall. Okay. I think we had a similar one to that earlier. Mike Montesson, all this tanking talk. I can't wait till two more teams get out and tankable loses Seattle and Las Vegas. We're getting that as well. Let's see. Jason McKinney after listening to your tankable lose ideas and hearing shoemaker segment. I jumped to look at a women's chalkable lose and Yukon money line not offered. And if I take the other three number ones in LSU, I get a four leg parlay at minus 700ish. All this parlay talk is killing Stevie next to me right now. He's dying. Chad Scott, providing a fantasy world. I'd love to just take the lotto teams and throw them in a tournament. Then the winner gets the first pick. But then there would be more tanking to get into the lotto tournament. Mick Brentley, hey, Gill, heard this idea years ago for NHL tanking, Canada here. Casual basketball fan, why don't they play that sport

16:19on ice with knives on their feet? I digress. Most wins after you are eliminated from playoff contention gets the number one pick. That was something I brought up, Mick Brentley some time ago. Once you're eliminated, then go for it because if you win the most from that point, you should get the number one pick. I think that's the simplest solution. Primetime Leon Sanders, yo, hey man, tough couple of days of tennis there. MLB betting, I got you kid. Here's your lock of the day. Lean in and listen closely. Yoga pants, peace and love. That's an old, that's a little megapod story for those who know, that's very inside. Shoot him again with Gill. What Steve is on? Could you ask if there's a sweet spot or optimal number of entries for a contest? Whether that survivor and ATS contest, would he rather plan a pool of 100, 1000 or 10,000? Well, I would imagine that's your thirst for your risk aversion or lack of aversion kind of answer. All kinds of questions. I have to address on your tennis. Your action points are phenomenal. So Jesse, I had Jesse plus three and a half winner.

17:20I don't know, whichever Paul, it is Tommy, Paul Johnny, Paul plus one and a half. I was going to say this one. We talked about the action points for the contest that Kelly Danny and I are doing for a numbers game and the crew did very much reflects my tennis play. Three of your tennis losers, I won with. By laying like $1.23 and going and getting the points, I got to address this whole tank of Paloosa, which is in favor of, but the whole, it's all completely flawed, just rip it up. When you have a program, the NFL has to listen to me here. You're going to have a situation where both teams are desperately trying to lose and then it's going to be a complete travesty where both teams are fumbling literally. Can you imagine that? And they need to bite it in the head. And the obvious solution is just, if everyone gets the same chance it doesn't make the playoffs. I know that's not, all these other proponents of other systems, it's like they're smoking tofu. They have no idea what they're doing.

18:20Like if you have a system like, oh, you wait to have the team with the best record after they're eliminated, well, that'll all of a sudden people are going to be tanking and on Thanksgiving and let me get eliminated as fast as possible. No, you're right. But I would say the two teams with the worst record, the very worst record, cannot get the number one pick. Relegate them. Do not allow a team to be got offal bad. All right. Or forget, as Kelly said, relegate to where, right? You're not going to center the glee. You just can't get the top two picks. You can't get the top two. Or the top one pick. And at least that'll stop the nonsense of the two worst teams losing 22 consecutive games. Well, I'll tell you all I do know is that the three proposals they made today are ridiculous, like just absolutely crazy. To answer the question that you gave me about the initial question about how many picks you should enter, the first pick is always optimal. If you want to maximize ROI, you have one entry. But when you have a big overlay, then you want to continue and have more and more example. I got over to the Westgate, and I played the MLB season win contest. Great contest.

19:20I've cast three of the last five years. I think top three or top five pay. I think top five. And I go ahead and I put in my five entries. And then I pretty much, like there's 12 teams I know where I'm going to go. I'm going under on Houston, 86 and a half. I'm going under on San Diego 84 and a half. And then they just kind of randomize. I say, all right, I got five entries. I'll go ahead and play, you know, the devil raise over on three of them under on two again, because they can't all be really close to one another. And one of the biggest mistakes people make is they duplicate like five, they have five circumillions and they have five duplicate picks. And that works out great when they're doing great. But more often than not, the diversification is absolutely the way to go. Okay. I hope that helped answer the question. Real quick, you just jog my memory on this though. Before we move on from baseball, all that talk about baseball is not, you know, not beatable now with these, with the currents structured. It's still, but not what it was. Right. I mean, it's a bit much more difficult given, given how these lines are being dished out. But season win totals, you still love.

20:21Yeah, so what's this? Why is Joe Pita, you know, recommending 11 max bets? Why am, why is crack running all over Southern and Northern Nevada putting down these bets? Why am I putting all these in? Why are we betting all these alternative totals? Are you aware that we do season win totals here every year on the show? It's curious. 100%. I mean, that's like, that's like A&G copyright and stuff. But why is Gil Alexander spending so much time because he will win every year betting these. Literally, he's a maximum, he's a huge favorite. And like, there's a whole guy's like 100. A hundred guardians go 14 games over 500 with the negative. So, so David, it's Dr. Bob Jacksonville State. Yeah. So it's, David Kaufman is like a veteran sports veteran. He runs around with the computer bag. He has no computer. And he just has like every single team season when he wins every year, every sport. And like, I tell him Green Bay's like, I got Green Bay over eight and a half minus 160. And I got him under, under 10 and a half, you know, minus 110 and he just gets the best number.

21:24And he just like constantly is picking off numbers like example, like playing the pirates under 80 and a half at Westgate and playing the pirates, you know, over 79 and a half plus 130 kind of hard to lose. Special numbers game investigation reveals, Stevie, that there are two football leagues that are happening. The XFL and the UFL, these two focac de leagues. Do you bet these? I bet everything, but it's UFL opening night tonight. All right, come on. No, opening night, yeah. Wow. And they've got two new rules changes. You're not allowed to punt if your ball has passed the 50 yard line. This is not a good rules change for under better. So I love spring football week one under is wow. But I'm like, oh, oh dear. Now a team has fourth and 18 from the opponent's 49 and they got to go for it. That's not good. Or they could attempt a field goal because field goals count four points if they're from 60 plus yards. So think about this. If you're on your opponent's 40, you know,

22:24we're going to see this. They're going to snap the ball 10 yards and try six and they're never going to try 57 or 58 yard field goal. You got to try the 60 yard field goal. So now the short snapper has to become an intermediate snapper. He's got a snap of 10 yards. So what's the action will play there to bet under in these first games then with their control ball is always to bet under. But these rules changes help overs longer terms in conclusive. What to do? I bet them all under anyways. I think they've been so profitable. You did bet them under. I got a better question for you. I don't even know that the league is starting to then has his league going to survive. They're doomed. They're only chances. They are on the major networks like Fox and ESPN. But they're the fact that we watch sports 24 seven. Will Hill has not only does he have Daisy. A dollop will do you makes good food tastes better that commercial memorized. He knows all the actors and the actresses in that commercial. I mean, like we're we watch so much sports. And will has no idea that the UFL is starting.

23:25The only Daisy cottage cheese will do is if the UFL that's starting the XFL started UFL started. Okay. I have no idea about the XFL. What's the Birmingham Louisville game? It must be the the UFL. Okay. You have a plan. Here we go. I played every game under Birmingham stallions Louisville King's box sports 5 p.m. tonight. Five point spread. I'm sure every little 42. That's you the basketball. Yeah. I'm sure. Absolutely. Okay. Okay. You do have speaking of getting an obscure with sports tonight. We were talking women's basketball with Tyler Shoemaker earlier. You have a play. Yeah. What do you mean obscure? It's the woman's sweet 16 here. It's a big game here. Oh, dear. By the way, can you seize that moment and try to make me out to be something on the by the way, Connecticut already what I meant. Connecticut has already won the championship. They're going to be playing 12 against UCLA. If UCLA makes the championship, yeah. So Notre Dame Vanderbilt, let's go to the Fort Worth region. The game is this morning 11 30 a.m. set up the total set up under 152.

24:29This is an homage to right angle sports. Got that set up on the under go go. We are betting. It's 152. You know what? Notre Dame and Vanderbilt, but both those gals might be able to score when they're playing Ducane or some crappy team. But all of a sudden why are you calling them gals? The doesn't matter. Not the spread is five and a half. It's a competitive game. I've seen this a zillion times in the women's tournament. You get a total that high, like 152. It is these 98 to 71 finals become 63 to 62 finals. So competitive game we're going to go under. Have you ever come on this show and done the homage to right angle sports where you go cancel and then you do a new one? It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. I'm not canceling. I don't cancel. Famously, it's either a go or it's a cancel and every now and then it's an opposite. I'm going opposite soon. More Stevie next.

25:30A number's game on Fises. This sports betting network baseball season is here. And Veece and Pro just made it a whole lot more profitable with MLB AI. Playa Propagetions powered by Opta AI. We're giving you data-driven projections for both hitters and pitchers compared directly to Draft King's line so you know exactly where the value is and every day we break it all down into the top value plays in strong plays so you don't have to do the heavy lifting. Top value plays and strong plays. Get access now with a Veecin Pro subscription. At Veecin.com slash MLB props. We get Swedes beating the book. Mike at Upper Deck S U, the survivor talk is great. Also might mention that the ESPN survivor tiebreaker is winning margin. That took better seeds early to build points and now have much fewer choices to stay alive. Yeah, I prefer the sum of all winning seeds. Winning streak. He says up next on ANG, Fesick and Gil. Oh boy. We have a good timer. Jeffrey S. DeVore. That would be me telling the midweek tennis bets but for Mohova and Schienes yesterday

26:32to quote Shaggy. It wasn't me. All right. You're off the hook. Jeffrey. Again, sorry about Mohova. Tom F, real life, Fesickism, watch my son play seven high school baseball games in a tournament over the weekend. And I was all baseballed out. What's this? It's MLB opening day back to the grind. He says Roger Jones nicks at the NBA in season tournament is complicated. It sounds like someone needs to catch NBA cup fever. That's exactly right, Roger. He did not have NBA cup fever. I kept saying that during the tournament. John Balduci. Gina, R.I.M.I should play with four just to see what happens tonight in women's college hoops. And yes, we're getting this. By the way, RGB. You are correct. And Steve, we were given the wrong. The USFL, not the USFL RGB. You mean the USL? Oh, no, he's right. The USFL and the XFL merged into the USL. All right. We apologize for that. That's my fault. That's that's Steve's fault. I had a fat. That's great. That's great. The new fangled USFL and new fangled XFL merged into the USL and they're both going

27:34to fail. And they're both going to. And J.T. speed to burn. He says, I wonder if the USL executive said, let's open our season against MLB opening day in March, madness, sweet 16. I know, man. It's so stupid. They really, they really need to go like the week before the Super Bowl. And then the week of the Super. There's only one Super Bowl. You can play your games on set when people are football geeked out still and ready. Spraying football will never work. It won't because once March madness comes in, and here comes the masters and like bang, bang, bang. And here comes the NBA playoffs. And part of the reason we love football is we is the anticipation. It's part of that whole process. I agree. Crack was here yesterday. He told a great pool hall story about fixed, a fixed pool tournament and I got you thinking about something. Yeah. So if you missed the show. So Mazorowski and all these great poker pool players are playing and there's like one guy who's like in his 50s and I can't remember what his name is, but he's like a tomato can at that point. And he's like 51 at the Mirage, right? They all figured out and all the pool players colluded and they're like, hey, you know,

28:36we can all bet on this guy and we'll all tank when we play him and let him win and we'll all make $5,000 or $10,000. And so think about that. That's colluding on an entire tournament and it really just goes to show and this was a document in the movie, Color Money, the hustler remake with Tom Cruise and Paul Newman where it's so easy when you have a head-to-head matchup. Sometimes you play your heart out, sometimes you tank or you don't try so hard. But in terms of nothing could be easier and so there's a scene where Tom Cruise isn't unknown and he beats like the number one seed Grady, right? And then the next round he's playing Paul Newman and it's close match and Newman wins and like Tom Cruise goes to his hotel room later on and hands him a bag of money. He's like, after I upset Grady, all the money came on me. I got three to one on you, you know, and Newman didn't even know because at Tom Cruise he says, the art of the dump is you don't miss by a lot. The bulk goes in and out of the pocket, the crowd goes, oh, you know, everyone's sad.

29:41And it really is true, like you look at every like points bread shaving that you've seen like the past 20 years, like even with these NBA players and like, and it's literally the dumb and the dumber, you know, like it's so obvious and think how easy it would be like in a tennis match. Oh, yeah, absolutely. You just say, don't win the first set. That's all I'm thinking about. First set and play your heart out the rest of the way you know why because as soon as you lose the first set, then your Confederates can say, you know, we've been betting against them. And now we'll take him plus 330, you know, then now he's down one set. No, I mean, there was a, there was an actual tour level match in Winston Salem several years back. So it's a tournament right before the US open. Somebody got caught cheating on the men on the men's side. I'm sure it happens at the ITF level all the time. Not to mention the rule regarding if, um, if you retire for injury. So you got a bad hamstring. Think about this. You could just tell your Confederate just bet 50,000 on me at the books that has a rule that said the match has to be completed.

30:42And believe me, if I get down where one more game and I lose, oh, oh, Ronnie Dangerfield, my arm, my arm, like Caddy Shack style, oh, there'll be no action. It's a push. For sure. For sure. Um, you could bet on yourself, you know, I mean, there are all kinds of ways to do it. And by the way, then there's also the, this is not a tanky thing. This is not a fixing thing, but there's also within tennis betting the strategic tank of a set as well, right? Like if I'm up a set, but then I'm down a break and I'm running out of steam, save some energy. I just kind of let you have the set kind of thing. That's a different thing. That's what I do whenever I play Todd Wischnip. That's right. That's why I always win the last four games of every set we play. All right. So let's, I want to go to the sweet 16, I guess the one thing we haven't talked about. You have noticeably here and notably, I should say no play at all tonight. You know, I got to tell you, I don't like the industry that I'm in. I really don't.

31:42And here it is every game of the year, game of the month. This is my biggest bet of the year. It's all nonsense. Good for you, Steve. It's retaken. It's a bunch of crap. You're growing up, Steve. So your game of the year, Gil, isn't, when Maryland has to fly across the country and their entire team has the flu and they got to go to Washington state and their plane breaks down. That's not your game of the year. That was all hypothetical. Your, the game of the year here is St. John's Duke, where the truth of the matter is, I would love to bet me Duke like minus six minus one oh five and I would love to bet St. John's plus seven and a half and it's like these lines are so tight. How can this possibly be the very best bet? Now to be fair, the Walters once famously bet on the St. plus seven against the Colts, like a million dollars, he said, the super, like there are betting events like in the Super Bowl where the public can take over and move a line too far. All right. But not these games. These lines are so strong. Anything with three of the four games going over last night?

32:44Certainly, it makes me think that the public, back to what we were saying, the public is moving the numbers. The public sees three of the four go over. If Houston had gone over also, and all four had gone over, it'd be better. And then I'd say there'd be even more pressure on the overs. But on a game like a Michigan, Alabama, you're probably going to see like the public just embracing the over, even though it's sky high at a 172 and a half, it might get it to steam up to 174. So that's an example where look for rogue numbers to go under the rest of the tournament. But I don't, I don't, I don't know if I can do it with this Alabama team. No, I agree with you. Let's wrap this up with a broad thing. You recently heard a quote. I thought it was interesting that you found it interesting. And I understand why you do. The quote is, I'll say the quote, winning at sports betting is really easy. As long as you realize you have no idea what you're doing. I love that. Yeah. And I got to attribute this. This was from Rob Pizzola. So that was his quote.

33:45I don't want him to come back and say I stole it from him. It's good for you. Good for you. But it really is a great quote, because if, like, and, and, and, and, when I used to run sports betting teams, if you just gave me a dental hygienist, all right, that has never bet a sports bet in her life, or a nice shoulder, what to do, she would win. She would follow the rules. She would like, like, but you give me a lifelong gambler, just the disaster, the crack man. He mentions it's like he works with people and he does nothing but give them winning advice and they want to. When we talk, Bill and I talk about that time, my oldest friend, he's like, Hey, Gil, I just, I just went six and one, he's subscribed to a service. Yeah. He's just going to do what he's going to do. It doesn't matter. Yeah. People are going to do what they're going to do. I'm having a problem with this tooth. I think, you know, I just have a guy. That's right. You can't get out for me. He's a dentist. I'm on the street quarter. I don't need, I don't need a dentist, but, but the truth is, if you know you're a dummy and you don't know anything, think about, like, the last man standing, all these sports betting concepts, if you know nothing, it's obvious, oh, if the line's 11 and a half, I'll take you to a state plus 12 and half against Arizona.

34:46I'm getting a point, a clear point of, of, of, of line value, but that's not how the average gambler thinks they want to pick the team that's going to win. And so that their instincts hurt them and all these sports betting contests versus someone just falling, like, like a sharp third grade that follows a basic strategy will do better than them, you know, just knowing that they know nothing. Here's my, my follow up to that. Do you think that is sports betting specific or that that rings true across some, like, different, different areas of, of, of the world's interest? Everything. Yes. And, and this is the scary part for me because it makes me realize all the experts in sports betting, 90% of them have no idea what they're doing. No idea. Like, and when I say no idea, it would be like someone saying they're a blackjack expert and they kind of know basic strategy, nothing more. All right. So this makes you worry about everything else. So whenever I go and bring my car into the mechanic, whenever the air conditioning technician comes over, or whenever I'm buying shoes, like famously, like pay less shoes, what's

35:50open up a store, they pretended to be a luxury shoe store and people are paying $300 for the pair of shoes. Like, oh, I can tell the quality is there. So it makes me realize I'm getting ripped off in everything in life and what, what, what are considered to be the experts aren't in all aspects. The human condition, it's fascinating, sometimes good, sometimes not so good. Steve Fessig everybody at Fessig Sports on Twitter, you behaving yourself on their lately or not really? No, I, I, I misquoted the wrong team on my, my team's playing. My four guys are out there. Goodbye. Steve Fessig everybody. Thank you, sir. That's pure automotive joy. I'm Peter, the owner of Muscle Car Junior. It started as a hobby, then I started posting about it. Before I knew it, I built a business for storing muscle cars on Facebook Marketplace and the community of car lovers on Instagram. Today, new customers send me what's that message is from all over. Not bad for a hobby.

36:50Learn how meta helps over 35 million American businesses like Peter's grow at meta.com slash community. Bank of America champions everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? As a coach to 16 competitors in Augusta National Women's Amateurs, I ask myself this question every season. To help my athletes keep their eye on the ball, far beyond any course they play. Bank of America is proud to be a presenting partner of the Augusta National Women's Amateur. Thank you, America, and I remember FTSC. A numbers game on FESET, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. Live from Circle Resort, Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bill and Dovergate. We are brought to you by Profitex and proudly, so and once again, if you're not all Profitex,

37:52what are you doing? Sign up by April 6th, purchase at least $25, get a free $25, then jump into their King of March contest, you go in free trips worth up to $5,000 or even $10,000, just use the code vsonmm as in March Madness, make your first purchase, then learn about the contest on their whole page and start playing, no entry fee is required, hit $1,000 in volume, you're entered for the $5,000 trip, hit $10,000, you're in for the $10,000 trip. Win 10 picks, hit the volume, and every additional 10 wins gets you another entry. Download Profitex, use code vsonmm, make your first purchase, and take your shot at becoming the King of March. Kelly-Bitland back in his chair, get spritically typing, brandly typing away, what do you mean we're completely cool, Cobb, everything's under control? Danny's absence isn't even noticed, not at all, not at all, or we kept the bet, shall we do that? As long as I got all yours in, yeah, I don't think you did, but my guess is you didn't. I, here's, here's what I have going on here, I am on St. John's tonight in the college

38:53hoops, like everybody else, apparently, though Bob, Dr. Bob is on Duke, that should be pointed out, but I'm on St. John's plus seven, this was the only pre-flop bet I've made in the sweet 16, it remains the only pre-flop bet, I do have the tank of Paloza parlay tonight. Oh, that's right. Which I'm guessing Kelly forgot that was, yeah, absolutely did forget that one, yeah, take it. Paloza is the seven leg, brain dead MLB parlay, major league baseball, I say the money line parlay, the brain dead money line parlay, pardon me, in the NBA, which is a seven leg or the pays 1.25 on the dollar, so $1.25 on the dollar, it is a clippers, thunders, rockets, nuggets, warriors, blazers, lakers, NBA brain dead parlay, let me repeat that. Let me actually give you the, the opponents on all of these. So clippers, clip show, taking on the, the Pacers, thunders, taking on the bulls, rockets

39:53taken on the grizzlies, nuggets taken on the jazz, warriors play the wizards, blazers play the mavericks, lakers, play the nets, clippers, thunders, rockets, nuggets, warriors, blazers, lakers, to pay $1.25 on the dollar, we're up a unit 0.69, by the way, the baseball plays reds most wins by the end of April. Boy, there was zero zero with the red socks yesterday against crochet that the base is loaded with one out one and it couldn't cash. They lose three to nothing. Blue J's last team to lose a regular season game, their season begins today. Total number one seed tournament wins. Oh, both Stevie and I have this over 14 and a half. The Wolverines and the blue devils must win tonight for us to still be alive in this. We need both number one seeds to win. We're at, we're at eight right now. We need to get to 10 before the elite eight. And then I have you come to win the championship at 16 to one, which I don't really ever even think about that I have, but I guess it's still alive. So, you know, you never know. You never know. As you contrast to win its third

40:57title in four years, it should be pointed out. You, sir, St. John's and Michigan state for me tonight in college basketball just bought off Celtics had laid four and a half with them last night. Jalen Brown is going to miss this game tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. So, just bought off that. So, if you saw that earlier, I mentioned it earlier. It did just by on the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a big Eastern conference matchup, actually. And the Jalen Durant, most improved player. I bet bet that yesterday we talked about this past couple days. It was getting closer and closer. He had a monster game last night. Just him getting more usage even with Kate Cunningham, not not in there. I think I think he's going to end up winning this thing. And that number is going to get steep here in the next week. Total anti-Semitism from you. Yeah, you know me. Tyler Shoemaker's best bet teams on the show today. Women's tournament, sweet 16 tonight. And tomorrow night, he's on LSU minus the eight and a half points. LSU is the fifth shot. They're the they're the the shortest shot that is not a number one seed.

42:00Let's put it that way to to win the women's basketball title. However, likely or unlikely, you deem that to be. But he's on LSU in the sweet 16 game. That's tonight against Duke. He's laying eight and a half in that one. He is on Notre Dame plus six and a half tonight against Vanderbilt. You can even get seven on that now. And he's on Texas laying 15 and a half tomorrow night speaking number one seeds. He's on Texas laying the wood against Kentucky tomorrow night in a women's college hoop. So that should be fun for the sweet 16 games tonight for tomorrow in the women's tournament, which is super top every with you. Can't expect it to win it all yet again yet again. Only minus 250 to do that. Yeah, that's it. That's all you got. Anybody else? No, nothing. Anyone? No, that's it. No. Men's for Tyler Shoemaker. Oh, and men's for Tyler Shoemaker. I'm sorry. St. John's plus seven. Hey, another person on St. John's. St. John's Duke under 141 and he's on smarty as well. You and him. He's on Michigan state plus two. You guys are simpatico on that as far as hour. Oh, by the way, Nick Whalen, Darius Garland

43:04over points 19 and a half. He did have the one official play on a prop. Darius Garland over 19 and a half points. JVT is on the under in the St. John's Duke game under 142. He is on Alabama plus the points tonight plus 10. Um, you and I, by the way, Owen Fesick, Notre Dame Vanderbilt, women's side under 152. That's tonight, women's soup. And Dalland Cuff also on the St. John's parade for God's sakes. I'll be fine. I'm sure we'll make all of us. Except for Dr. Bob. What has that ever gotten wrong? Yeah. It's ever Bob. Um, in the Vison challenge, which of course, power rated by action points, Kelly and I are lapping the field. Yeah. And Danny, he got in there with a pick or two. We have a remaining pick in this route is we are on Alabama plus 10 in the contest. That's it. That's all we got left. We did, we did two and two yesterday, two and two yesterday. And we deserve the two and two yesterday. It was a clear. Yes. Yes. As opposed to bad beats, we absolutely deserve the two and two

44:08yesterday. And then in survivor, I am going to take Illinois. He says cautiously because he must. Hey, why am I speaking about a third person? I have to because I'm not, I'm not taking Alabama and I'm not taking St. John's. I'm just not. I'm saving. I'm taking Tennessee. I'm taking Tennessee. What did I say? Illinois again. It screwed me up. Orange gets me. Orange gets me. I said Tennessee today. Illinois tomorrow. I lost my bracket. Now I see now. I lost my bracket. Kill Tennessee today for me. The six seed. Yeah, you're thinking of Illinois, the three seed tomorrow. I still know if I'm lucky. I still know what to do. Michigan state or Iowa state. That's what I'm doing today. Yeah, man. Good luck. Thanks. Yeah, we might, we might be heads up. Well, listen, do I think I'm getting through? I have no idea. Problem is. So yeah, like I don't know. Okay, Bama's like I'm not playing Bama.

45:09They're only a four seed, right? So you're not, it's not like you're getting a huge boost from that. Right. So not considering that, I would, I would want to save Michigan. St. John's I'm on, but man, I'm not, I'm not confident enough in them winning outright. What do you mean you're on by? Yeah, I took the points, but like, man, I don't, I don't know them confident enough with them winning outright. All this to say once again, if you're, if you're not playing Survivor League yet, you're doing this right. It's fun. It's so great. I know. I do agree with you. Look ahead to tomorrow. I think it's going to be rather simple for me as well to join you on. Illinois, Illinois. Illinois against Iowa. Yeah. And again, the point here is not only going for the longer seeds, the higher seeds, excuse me, the lower seeds. I always mess that up. Lower seeds to try to accumulate as many seeding points as possible. But you're also looking to play simultaneously the teams that you think will then get knocked out the next round. Right. And you're saving the Arizona's and the dukes and the Michigan's and whomever for later. Because then it, because then it really does come down to just you winner lose.

46:11The seeding stuff kind of goes out the window at that point. Right. And that's right. I think I'm just going to kind of, man, I don't know. I keep changing my mind. There's part of me that wants to just kind of leave that east alone and address it next set next next round. But then it would be because Iowa State, if I go Iowa State, pretty confident going Michigan that going forward out of that region. I don't really think there's any future value, you know, but either between Tennessee or Iowa State, really. Do you think the most picked team tonight will be Tennessee? Because a lot of people have already used them. Yeah. I have a feeling Iowa State will end up being the most used team tonight. I think those will be the top two. Yeah. I think you're probably right. I already used Tennessee. I know there, I know it was a. Yeah. That's the chunk earlier. That's the other thing with picking with picking Tennessee is that you will catch up with a lot of the people in front of you. Not only because of the number, but just based on the fact that a lot of people just are eliminated from playing them. They have no choice. They can't play them. So

47:13it's kind of the obvious one. We nor lose. That's the thing about it. Even if you lose, that was the proper play. I love this. This is so fun because this is. There is there is the part of Alabama that have brought up though, because they're only a four seed either a day and a half point dog. Almost nobody's going to pick that problem. Right. Because you're kind of Michigan if you do. Yeah. Yeah. There is a Michigan factor. You have to factor. No, no, totally, totally. Yeah. I don't know. All these other teams lose and you're on Alabama. You could be looking pretty good. Yeah. So much fun. So great. Maybe we can organize one one day. And again, the first prize will be one day with Todd Wischnov. Second prize will be two days with Todd Wischnov. Gary Woodland up two strokes over Thorbränsen Thorbränsen Thorbränsen Thorbränsen Thorbränsen Mm-hmm. And we'll say seven or three. Your guy three back in the Texas Children's Houston Open. Come and move. Prop points next. Nick Whale and Jeff Erickson followed by money moves with JVT and then follow money with Michigan Paul. Enjoy from Visa. These sports betting network.

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