A Numbers Game | March 27, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00That's pure automotive joy. I'm Peter, the owner of Muscle Car Junior. It started as a hobby, then I started posting about it. Before I knew it, I built a business for storing muscle cars on Facebook Marketplace, and the community of car lovers on Instagram. Today, new customers send me what's that message is from all over. Not bad for a hobby. Learn how meta helps over 35 million American businesses, like Peter's Grow, at meta.com slash community. United Health Group is simplifying health care by investing in tools to help patients know more and pay less. These tools help patients find providers and compare costs and save hundreds of dollars annually. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. The numbers told the story they always do. Swandals, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill Abysxander gone v-send. Number three of a numbers game at v-send. These sports betting at worth visa.com game plus I hard radio, YouTube, TV, and of course,

1:01series XM channel 158. Gill, Alexander, Kelly is behind the glass because physics about to join us for physics Fridays. I am still behind on the tweets. I want to get some more of these. This is from Paulie 68 says, what year did the NBA MVP officially become the MOP, most offensive player? SGA, one of the best defenders in the league, and Wembee speaks for itself, but nobody can tell me Yoke, it's your Luka, have a good defensive rating. Well, Paulie, you're right, but most of these voters are always going to go with the offensive stats. Colin Murphy, action points are the difference. I was wondering about our v-send challenge where a recent prime time is in first place. I think they're two and a half games ahead of us. We're in third place and money moves with JVT is right in between us. As far as the v-send shows are concerned, he says action points, but then there's the action points column where a numbers game is murdering everybody, and I wanted to know what are these action points? These action points are the difference between your bet and the result. It's like the old points bet model. For example, if you bet a team laying 10 points and you bet that side and then win by 20,

2:04then you would get 10 action points, essentially point differential. So in other words, a numbers game is by far the most unfortunate of all these teams. We have a plus 93.5 action point rating. The next best is plus 44. We're killing it. We shouldn't be 17 and 17. We should be way better than that. Oh, man, bad luck once again. What have we done? Just give us the belt. That's right. Kelly's in my air. Just give us the belt. Indiana Jet, who chopped at the end of survivor a couple of years back, says, want to get really nuts to your take a blues and just add women's college hoops, Yukon, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina to the NBA tankathon, Parley, for an 11 teamer at plus 144 on Fandall, not terrible, idea, Tim Bowers. I'm not a superstitious person, but the tennis picks downfall these last couple days started midweek when a listener tweeted he was going to start following Gil's tennis picks more. Yes, was that you Tim? I can't remember if you're talking about yourself or not. And then there's Rob Graham.

3:05That four players on the floor is just and now this is in capitals. More evidence. It's all scripted. There's a reason why all in capitals, the players are getting a huge in capitals salary with the coaches and refs. Okay, Rob. I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but if you're being serious, come on. Dan Groeschel, like Dalin Kufman, middle school hoops team ran the wrong way play several times. Unlike Dalin, we played smart team slash coaches who saw right through us most of the time, but the few times it worked for us were magical. And Scott New York mess also points out the action points. How much you covered or lost to the spread if you lay two and a half team wins by ten. You're plus seven and a half action points. There are more of these, but ladies and gentlemen, it is time for Physic Fridays. Let's go. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physic Fridays with Steve Fesick, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. How you doing, sir? So I need to talk about your 17 and 17 record. I'm going full Joe Pita here on you. Thank you.

4:05You're a big green, um, points distribution. You're really 22 and 12. Now your record 17 and 17 but because you're plus ninety three and a half, if you replayed and you told me, Hey, I'm working to go in the past and your teams are going to outscore the opponents teams against the spread by ninety three points. You'd bet on us. Absolutely. So and in fact, when you run a query, it is oftentimes much more significant. The action point differential than the against the spread differential. The only caution I would give if that if you do play overs, you're going to always do well with the action points. And if you play unders, you're going to do lousy because triple over times and things. You'll have games that go over by fifth. We weren't playing. Generally, we were not playing totals at all. We were playing sides and we had like five horrific beats in the second round. Maybe you can ask for like an action point belch. Just give us our action points belt. Yeah. That's right. Steve Fessig here for you. No cabana for you. None. We're following at your own peril much more gentlemanly in real life.

5:07Some would say not all by the way. Some would also say in real life, not so gentlemanly. That's fair assessment by some. Yes. I compete on the tennis court compared to Todd Wischneve, who is very gentlemanly, Todd not gentlemanly. Todd. Wow, competitor. I'm sure we're not going to hear about that on the group chat today. By the way, Todd Wischneve, fear of missing out plus 181 units. Everyone has been betting him except for the bear, Chris Velika, who is in Buenos or some place in that part of the world. All right. Let's start with, we'll get back to basketball. Let's start with Major League Baseball because I feel like after opening day, probably didn't give enough juice today because we're all wrapped up in the sweet 16. The way too early Major League Baseball opening day takeaways, because I know you do this kind of thing. The ball might be juice. We can't be. Already. Todd and Wilhelm are like, boy, that ball is carrying him in the bird, pitch bird. But it's interesting. So Joe Pita texted me and he's like, well, way too early, but glad you guys are friends.

6:10Love Joe Pita. So he's like, well, the last two years, every fly ball goes out of the stadium 11.8% of the time, opening day 13.5%. Now, that's not conclusive, necessarily, but it certainly does something to keep an eye on. And Joe correctly pointed out, now he's like, you really need to geek out. If you just took a look at the launch angle and the exit velocity, for instance, if the exit velocity is 102 and it's a 38% launch angle, it should go 440 feet or whatever and you could compare it, but then obviously it depends upon the temperature and the barometric pressure to be able to do. It's a lot of calculations to geek out. Roxy Roxborough, first person to figure this stuff out when he's the baseball banner. Oh, season wins from Roxy this year. No, because you know what he said to me? He always said to me when we'd come on the show, he would always give his season win totals. He was going five and one. He was, you know, six and two. He'd have these great records every year, but he always said to me, goes, Gil, the first year I have a losing record, I'm not doing it anymore.

7:12Yeah, but Will Hill says that all the time and he's always back the next day. No, Will's line is, I'm never betting again. And then 8 a.m. I like this thunder. But then I think Roxy went like, what, three and four or something like that and he never came on the show again. That's amazing. They do it. Clearly he's not in the town business. No, he is not. But would you like me to give you the floor for your rant about how baseball is not betterable anymore? Would you like to do that? Whole thing? It's your show. Do you think? Yeah, no, please. I'd love to hear. It's, hey, in a baseball used to be the most beatable sport. Everyone would talk about that. Yeah. Why? Because they had the diamond. They didn't just have a diamond. That was my jam back in the day. They had a nickel line. Yeah. 95, Barbary Coast and Caesars, both did this. They were independent books at the time. Two equal teams are playing like one teams of minus one of three. The other teams of minus one of two. Now minus one ten, minus one ten, minus one of three, minus one of two. Todd Wischneve is rollerblading up and down the strip, betting into the nickel line. Cake. Yeah, it is. And now, so we go to the diamond. Great deal.

8:13So think about this. So on the diamond line, and it's even better with the bigger favorite. It goes all the way up to like minus one 80 plus one 70. Well, to quote from the Godfather, the diamond line doesn't have the muscle it used to have. It's getting, it's getting moved out in New York. It's getting moved out of Vegas. It's like it's really hard to find. So South Point still has it, not up to minus one 70, but like up to minus one 50. Notably, it was taken away at the South Point for some period of time and they brought it back. Is that right? I think it eat it from above. This is not my mish book. Excellent. Yeah. You know, these sports books, like I was picking, it was an eat it from above. To take it away. Chrissy would have never taken it away. Yes. Yes. So I don't want to pick on any book. So it's like, it's a book that sounds like Bet Oceans or Bet Ponds. Yeah. And they've got like the splits where it's like, what's this? It's like, on a baseball game, it's like minus one 58 plus one 24. Bet streams. Yeah. Yeah. It's just, it's betting Ponds gum because, and then the live is even worse, like God couldn't beat that kind of differential.

9:13And then when they host a show, they're like, well, who do you like? Do you like Toronto minus one 60 or do you like Tampa plus one 22? And it's like, I don't like either. I like being, having a gaming license. But with the prediction models and the betting exchanges coming in, the, the, the sports books are just literally here. We don't want your business anymore. Go on over to our competitors. They're, they're clueless. You know, though, this was, this was part of the reason. So when I, when I was working with Dr. Bob back in the day, 2012, I had a great, great year, 2013, I had a terrible year, 2014. Again, I had a great, great year betting baseball. But as 2015 and 2016 rolled around, I kind of broke even both of those years. I would, I, I, I, I told Bob, I was like, I don't think like, because Bob always wanted me to wait till the morning of to really speak, because his philosophy is always, if you do it at night, the overnight's half the country's going to be asleep, it's not, we can't do it that way. And I said to my go, these things are moving earlier and earlier. We, like, I can't do it the morning of anyway.

10:14You used to be able to get away with that up until about 2015. And so it was kind of like the biggest reason. Also, in addition to just breaking, you can't beat it anymore if you're releasing that. And it used to be so beatable, so like you would run your models. I use, I use one game and by example, so Texas is minus 120. You know, Texas is really good overnight. You bet it, minus 120. You get up in the morning and it's Texas, minus 140. But you know, they should be minus 160, right? Bang, you give it to your clients, minus 140. And then an hour later, still a good bet. The no big should be the fair line. Someone might say, I call it the no big should be like minus 153 plus 153. So you're getting 13 cents of CLV, you know, based upon that, you know, it's funny about, and what's happens, people are beating each other to the punch left and right. So I had a great discussion. There's a great NBA candy cap. I don't know if you know him, I'm it's at JB Wins big. Have you, do you know JB? Do you know Jeff? So he's, he's a prop specialist and he's killing it. And he gives out his props five AM Pacific eight AM. Eastern, the Eastern books are open and the like, and he's like, well,

11:15I want to get to it, you know, before the numbers move. And what was hilarious is I was talking to him about a really gifted college basketball handicap or Kyle Hunter. And he was like, oh, that Kyle, he gives out stuff like it, like, like, like at one AM the night before I can't get down on this stuff. And I'm like, well, I can because it's 10 o'clock Pacific. And it's like, is there really that big of a difference between releasing a 10 PM Pacific and five AM Pacific? I mean, so you can see everyone's just, it's like, everyone wants to be the first of the punch and, and, and, and take out the mistakes. Absolutely. So what, what's the upshot of that? If you're not betting on exchanges and baseball, you're doing this wrong. If you're betting the day of the game, yeah, okay, the exchange is going to do you no good against the openers because there's no liquid market. The market's not set. So until the market makers are rewarded for putting up prices, which they're not right now, you're, so there's no offer. So there's, so there's, there's no action. There's no liquidity when the lines first come up. So betting the day before is absolutely the way to go, but these, these sports

12:16books, like you hear all the time, there's experts out there saying, oh, the, the odds makers hate baseball. It's their worst spot. Well, of course, it's their worst sport because, you know, they're getting, look at the volume that they're taking, you know, so much smaller on a Wednesday Cubs game, you know, it regly than there is on a Monday night football game. More with Fezic on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network. Let me get your attention real quick podcast listeners. It's March, which means the madness is officially upon us, of course. And the folks at Visa and have really gone crazy with this one. I'm being told right now, my earpiece being told that for just $29.99, you can get unlimited access to Visa and Pro through May 1st. I'm talking picks throughout the tournament, public betting data for every single game, plus sharp tools, projections, articles, and more. Just click the link in the description to get started. It's March, baby. All right, now back to the show. In 2024, a truck crashed into Canal and more rescue where I work 146 of our dogs needed homes fast.

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14:19A numbers game proudly brought you by prophet X. If you're not on prophet X yet, now's the time sign up. By April 6th, purchase at least $25 and you'll get a free $25. Then jump into their king of March contest. You can win free trips worth up to $5,000 or even $10,000. Issues that go to Veecin M M make your first purchase. Then learn about the contest on their home page and start playing. No entry fee required hit $1,000 in volume. You're entered for the $5,000 trip and $10,000 you in for the $10,000 trip. Win 10 picks hit the volume and every additional 10 wins gets you another entry. Dallow prophet X use code Veecin M M M M as in March madness. Make your first purchase and take your shot at becoming the king of March. Gill Alexander, Steve Fesik, we get tweets at being in the book. Still try to catch up on these Patrick Michael. My solution for taking in the NBA 16 teams make the playoffs. Top 16 will pick as they usually do like the NFL does the champion picks. 30th, the runner up picks 29th, the two semifinals picks 28th and 27th and so on. The 17th place team will then pick first overall.

15:21Okay, I think we had a similar one to that earlier. Mike Montesson, all this tanky talk. I can't wait till two more teams get out and tankable loses Seattle and Las Vegas. We're getting that as well. Let's see Jason McKinney after listening to your takeable lose ideas and hearing shoemaker segment. I jumped to look at a women's chocolate pollution Yukon money line not offered. And if I take the other three number ones and LSU, I can get a four leg parlay at minus 700 ish. All this parlay talk is killing Stevie next to me right now. He's dying. Chance got provided a fantasy world. I'd love to just take the lotto teams and throw them in a tournament. Then the winner gets the first pick. But then there would be more tanking to get into the lotto tournament. Mick Brentley, hey, Gil heard this idea years ago for NHL tanking. Canada here, casual basketball fan. Why don't they play that sport on ice with knives on their feet? I digress. Most wins after you are eliminated from playoff contention gets the number one pick. That was that was something I brought up. Mick Brentley some time ago. Once you're eliminated, then go for it because if you win the most from that point, you should get the number one pick. I think that's the simplest solution.

16:22Primetime Leon Sanders. Yo, hey, man, tough couple of days of tennis there. MLB betting. I got you kid. Here's your lock of the day. Lean in and listen closely. Yoga pants, peace and love. That's an old, that's an old megapod story for those who know. That's very inside. Shoot him again with Gil. When Steve is on, could you ask him if there's a sweet spot or optimal number of entries for a contest, whether that survivor and ATS contest, would he rather plan a pool of 100, 1000 or 10,000? Well, I would imagine that's your, your, your thirst for your risk of version or lack of a version kind of answer. All kinds of questions. I have to address on your tennis. Your action points are phenomenal. The y'all got to Jesse. I had Jesse plus three and a half winner. I won. I don't know. I whichever Paul is Tommy Paul, Johnny Paul plus one and a half. I was going to say, I was going to say this when we talked about the action points for the contest that Kelly Danny and I are doing for a numbers game. And the crew did very much reflects my tennis play. Three of your tennis losers, yeah, I won with by, by, you know, laying like $1.23 and, and, and, and, and going and getting the points.

17:25I got addressed this whole tank of Paloosa, which is, I'm in favor of, but the whole, it's, it's all completely flawed. Just, just rip it up. Again, when you have a program, the NFL has to listen to me here. Yeah. You're going to have a situation where both teams are desperately trying to lose. And then it's going to be a complete travesty where both teams are fumbling literally. Um, can you imagine that and, and they need, they need to bite it in the head. And, and, you know, the obvious solution is just, if everyone gets the same chance, it doesn't make the playoffs. I know that's not, I, and, but this whole, all these other, um, proponents, proponents of other systems, they're, they're, it's, it's like, they're smoking dope. They have no idea what they're doing. Like, if you have a system like, oh, you wait to have the team with the best record after they're eliminated. Well, then all of some people are going to be tanking and, uh, I'm Thanksgiving. And let me get eliminated as fast as possible. No, you're right. You're right. So, so, so, I mean, I, but I would say the two teams with the worst record, the very worst record cannot get the number one pick, relegate them. Do not allow a team to be god awful bad, right? Or forget to lay, as Kelly said, relegate to where, right?

18:28You're not going to center the jelly. You just can't get the top two picks or the top one pick. And that'll, at least that'll stop the nonsense of the two worst teams losing 22 consecutive games. Well, I'll tell you all I do know is that the three proposals they made today are ridiculous, like just absolutely crazy to answer the question that you gave me about the, the initial question about how many picks you should enter. The first pick is always optimal. If you, if you want to maximize ROI, you may, you pick, you have one entry. But when you have a big overlay, then you want to continue and have more and more example, I got over to the Westgate and I played the MLB season win contest. Great contest. I've cast three of the last five years top, I think top three or top five pay. I think top five and I go ahead and I put in my five entries. And then I, I pretty much like there's 12 teams I know where I'm going to go. I'm going under on Houston 86 and a half. I'm going under on San Diego 84 and a half and then I just kind of randomize. I say, all right, I got five entries. I'll go ahead and play, you know, the devil raise over on three of them under on two again, because they can't all be really close to one another.

19:29And one of the biggest mistakes people make is they, they duplicate like five, they have five circa millions and they have five duplicate picks. And that works out great when they're, when they're doing great. But more often than not the diversification is absolutely the way to go. Okay. I hope that helped answer the question. Well, real quick, you just jog my memory on this though. Before we move on from baseball, all that talk about baseball is not, you know, not beatable now with these, with the currents. Scrubbietable, but not what it was. Right. I mean, it's a bit much more difficult given, given how these lines are being dished out, but season wind totals, you still love. Yeah. So what's this? Why is Joe Pita, you know, recommending 11 max bets? Why am, why is crack running all over Southern and Northern Nevada, putting down these bets? Why am I putting all these? And why are we betting all these alternative totals? Are you aware that we do season wind totals here every year on the show? It's curious about 100%. I mean, that's like, that's like, A and G copyright and stuff. But why is Gil Alexander spending so much time because he will win every year betting

20:32these literally is a maximum? He's a huge favorite. And like, there's old guys like the Guardians go 14 games over 500, but the negatives were on there. So, so David, it's Dr. Bob's Jacksonville state. Yeah. So, so it's, it's, David Kaufman is like a veteran sports veteran. He runs around with a computer bag. He has no computer. And it's just, and he just has like every single team season when he wins every year, every sport. And, and like, oh, I tell him Green Bay's like, I got Green Bay over eight and a half, minus 160. And I got him under, under 10 and a half, you know, minus 110. And he just gets the best number. And he just like constantly is picking off numbers like example, like playing the pirates under 80 and a half at Westgate and playing the pirates, you know, over 79 and a half plus 130. Kind of hard to lose. Special numbers game investigation reveals, Stevie, that there are two football leagues that are happening. The XFL and the UFL, these two focac de leagues. Do you bet these? I bet everything.

21:32But it's UFL opening night tonight, all right? Come on. No opening night. Yeah. Wow. And they've got two new rules changes. You're not allowed to punt if your ball has passed the 50-yard line. This is not a good rules change for under better. I love spring football week one under. Oh, wow. But I'm like, oh, dear. Now a team has fourth and 18 from the opponent's 49 and then they got to go for it. That's not good. Or they could attempt a field goal because field goals count four points if they're from 60 plus yards. So think about this. If you're on your opponent's 40, you know, we're going to see this. They're going to snap the ball 10 yards and try six and they're never going to try 57 or 58-yard field goal. Right. You got to try the 60-yard field goal. So now the short snapper has to become an intermediate snapper because he's got a snap of 10 yards. So what's the action will play there to bet unders in these first games then with their control? Well, spring football is always to bet unders, but these rules changes help overs in longer terms.

22:33So it's inconclusive what to do. I bet them all under anyways. I think they've been so profitable. You did bet them under. I got a better question for you. If I don't even know that the league is starting to then has this league going to survive. They're doomed. No chance that they are on the major networks like Fox and ESPN, but they're the fact that we watch sports 24-7, Will Hill has not only does he have daisy, a dollop will do you makes good food tastes better, that commercial memorized. He knows all the actors and the actresses in that commercial. I mean, like we watch so much sports and Will has no idea that the UFL is starting. Only daisy cottage cheese will do is that the UFL is starting the XFL started. UFL started. I have no idea about the XFL. What's the Birmingham Louisville game? It must be the the UFL. Okay. You have a plan. Here we go. I played every game under Birmingham stallions Louisville King's box sports 5 p.m. tonight. Five points spread. I'm sure everyone. Total 42. Estue the basketball. Yeah. I'm sure. Absolutely.

23:34Um, okay. You do have speaking of getting an obscure with sports tonight. We were talking women's basketball with Tyler Shoemaker earlier. You have a play. Yeah. What do you mean? Obscure. It's a woman's sweet 16 here. It's a big game here. Oh, dear. By the way, can you seize that moment and try to make me out to be something on by the way, Connecticut already. You know what I meant? Connecticut has already won the championship. They're going to be playing 12 against you. See it all over. It's all over. If UCLA makes the championship. Yeah. So Notre Dame Vanderbilt. Let's go to the fourth. Worth region. The game is. Oh, this morning 11.30 a.m. Set up the total set up under 152. This is an homage to writing of sports. Got that set up on the under. Go. Go. We are betting. 152. You know what? Notre Dame Vanderbilt. But both those gals might be able to score when they're playing DuCane or some crappy team. But all of a sudden. We're calling them gals. That doesn't matter. Now the spread is five and a half. It's a competitive game. I've seen this as zillion times in the women's term.

24:35When you get a total that high, like 152. Yeah. I these 98 to 98 to 71 finals become 63 to 62 finals. So competitive game. We're going to go under. Have you ever come on this show and done the homage to a right angle sports where you go cancel. And then you do a new one. I'm. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. For a year. Numbers game on fee said these sports betting network baseball season is here and vsome pro just made it a whole lot more profitable with MLB AI player prop projections powered by up to AI. We're giving you data, during projections for both hitters and pitchers compared directly to draft King's line so you know exactly where the value is. And every day we break it all down into the top value, plays in strong place so you

25:36don't have to do the heavy lifting. top value plays and strong plays. Get access now with a Veecin Pro subscription at Veecin.com slash MLB props. We get to eat speed in the book. Mike at Upper DeckSU, the survivor talk is great. Also might mention that the ESPN survivor tiebreaker is winning margin. People took better seeds early to build points and now have much fewer choices to stay alive. Yeah, I prefer the sum of all winning seeds. Winning streak, he says up next on ANG, a fesican girl, oh boy, we have a good time here. Jeffrey S. DeVore, that would be me telling the midweek tennis bets, but for Mohova and schemes yesterday to quote Shaggy, it wasn't me. All right, you're off the hook, Jeffrey. Again, sorry about Mohova. Tom F, real life fesicism, watched my son play seven high school baseball games in a tournament over the weekend, and I was all baseballed out. What's this? It's MLB opening day back to the grind, he says. Roger Jones, nicks at the NBA and season tournament

26:36is complicated. It sounds like someone needs to catch NBA cup of fever. That's exactly right, Roger. He did not have NBA cup of fever. I kept saying that during the tournament. John Belduce, Geno REM, I should play with four just to see what happens tonight in women's college, oops. And yes, we're getting this, by the way, RGB, you are correct. And Steve, we were giving the wrong, the USFL, not the USFL, RGB, you mean the USFL? Oh no, he's right. The USFL and the XFL merged into the USFL. All right, we apologize for that. That's my fault. That's, that's Steve's fault. I had a fat time. That's great. The new fangled USFL and new fangled XFL merged into the USFL. And they're both going to fail. Man, they're both going to. JD and JT Speed to Bernie says, I wonder if the USFL executive said, let's open our season against MLB opening day in March, madness, sweet 16. I know, man, it's so stupid. They really, they really need to go like the week before the Super Bowl, and then the week of the Super, there's only one Super Bowl.

27:36You can play your games on Saturday when people are football geeked out still. And ready. Football will never work. It won't because once March madness comes in, and here comes the masters and like bang, bang, bang. And here comes the NBA playoffs. And part of the reason we love footballs, we as the anticipation is part of that whole process. I agree. Crack was here yesterday. He told a great pool hall story about fixed, a fixed pool tournament. And I got you thinking about something. Yeah, so if you missed the show, so Maserowski and all these great poker pool players are playing, and there's like one guy who's like in his 50s, and I can't remember what his name is, but he's like a tomato can at that point. And he's like 50 to one at the Mirage, right? They all figured out, and all the pool players colluded. And they're like, hey, you know what? We can all bet on this guy, and we'll all tank when we play him and let him win, and then we'll all make $5,000 or $10,000. So good. And so like, so think about it, that's colluding on an entire tournament. And it really just goes to show, and this was documented in the movie, The Color of Money,

28:36The Hustler Remake with Tom Cruise and Paul Newman, where it's so easy when you have a head-to-head matchup. Sometimes you play your heart out, sometimes you tank, or you don't try so hard, in terms of nothing could be easier. And so there's a scene where Tom Cruise isn't unknown, and he beats like the number one seed, Grady, right? And then the next round, he's playing Paul Newman, and it's close match, and Newman wins. And like Tom Cruise goes to his hotel room later on, hands him a bag of money, he's like, after I upset, Grady, all the money came on me, I got three to one on you. You know, and Newman didn't even know, because at Tom Cruise, he says, the art of the dump is you don't miss by a lot. The bulk goes in and out of the pocket, the crowd goes, oh, you know, everyone's sad, and it really is true, like you look at every, like points spread shaving that you've seen, like the past 20 years, like even with these NBA players, and like, and it's literally the dumb and the dumber, you know, like it's so obvious,

29:37and think how easy it would be, like in a tennis match. Oh, yeah, absolutely. You just say, don't win the first set. That's all I'm thinking about. Don't win the first set, and play your hard out the rest of the way. You know why? Because as soon as you lose the first set, then your Confederates can say, you know, we've been betting against them, and now we'll take them plus 330. You know, now he's down one set. No, I mean, there was a, there was an actual tour level match in Winston-Salem several years back, so it's a tournament right before the US open. Somebody got caught cheating on the, on the men's side. I'm sure it happens at the ITF level all the time. Not to mention the rule regarding if, if you retire for injury, so you've got a bad hamstring. Think about this. You could just tell your Confederate, just bet 50,000 on me at the books that has a rule that said the match has to be completed, and believe me, if I get down where one more game, and I lose, oh, Ronnie Dangerfield, my arm, my arm, my catty-shack style, oh, there'll be no action. It's a push. For sure, for sure.

30:37You could bet on yourself, you know? I mean, there are all kinds of ways to do it. And by the way, then there's also the, this is not a tanky thing, this is not a fixing thing, but there's also within tennis betting the strategic tank of a set as well, right? Like if I'm up a set, but then I'm down a break and I'm running out of steam. Save some energy. I just kind of let you have the set kind of thing. That's a different thing. That's what I do whenever I play Todd Wishnip. That's right. That's why I always win the last four games of every set we play. All right, so let's, I want to go to the sweet 16-gen. I guess there's one thing we haven't talked about. You have noticeably here and notably, I should say no play at all tonight. You know, I got to tell you, I don't like the industry that I'm in. I really don't. And here it is, every game of the year. Oh, I know. You're going to lose. Game of the month. This is my biggest bet of the year. It's all nonsense. Good for you, Steve. It's reticent. It's a bunch of crap. You're growing up, Stevie. Oh, oh, there's this thing.

31:38So your game of the year, Gil, Isans, when Maryland has to fly across the country and their entire team has the flu and they gotta go to Washington state and their plane breaks down. That's not your game of the year. That was all hypothetical. The game of the year here is St. John's Duke where the truth of the matter is I would love to bet me Duke like minus six minus 105 and I would love to bet St. John's plus seven and a half. And it's like these lines are so tight. How can this possibly be the very best bet? Now, to be fair, Billy Walters once famously bet on the St. plus seven against the Colts, like a million dollars, he said, that's super, like there are betting events like in the Super Bowl where the public can take over and move a line too far, all right? But not these games. These lines are so strong. Anything with three of the four games going over last night? Uh, certainly it makes me think that the public back to what we're saying, the public moving the numbers, the public sees three of the four go over. If if Houston had gone over also, at all four had gone over, it'd be better.

32:38And then I'd say there'd be even more pressure on the overs. But on a game like a Michigan, Alabama, you're probably gonna see like the public just embracing the over, even though it's sky high at a 172 and a half, you might get it to steam up to 174. That's an example where look for rogue numbers to go under the rest of the tournament. But I don't, I don't, I don't know if I can do it with this Alabama team. No, I agree with you. Let's wrap this up with a, a broad thing. You recently heard a quote. I thought it was interesting that you found it interesting. And I understand why you do. The quote is, I'll say the quote, winning at sports betting is really easy. As long as you realize you have no idea what you're doing. I love that. Yeah, and I got to attribute this. This was from Rob Pizzola. So that was his quote. I don't want him to come back and say, I stole it from him. Good for you. Good for you. But it really is a great quote, because like, and when I used to run sports betting teams,

33:39if you just gave me a dental hygienist, all right, that has never bet a sports bet in her life, or a nice shoulder what to do, she would win. She would follow the rules. She would like, but you give me a lifelong gambler. It's just the disaster, the crack man mentioned. It's like, he works with people and he does nothing, but give them winning advice and they want to. We talk, Bill and I talk about that time, my oldest friend. He's like, hey, Gil, I just went six and one. He's subscribed to a service. Yeah, he's just going to do what he's going to do. It doesn't matter. Yeah, people are going to do what they're going to do. I'm having a problem with this tooth. I think, you know, I just have to have a guy. That's right. You can't get out for me on the street quarter. I don't need a dentist, but the truth is, if you know you're a dummy and you don't know anything, think about like the last man standing, all these sports betting contests. If you know nothing, it's obvious. Oh, if the line's 11 and a half, I'll take you to a state plus 12 and a half against Arizona. I'm getting a point, a clear point of line value, but that's not how the average gambler thinks. They want to pick the team that's going to win. And so that their instincts hurt them

34:40in all these sports betting contests versus someone just falling like a sharp third grade that follows a basic strategy will do better than them, you know, just knowing that they know nothing. Here's my follow-up to that. Do you think that is sports betting specific or that that rings true across like different, different areas of the world's interest? Everything. Yes. And this is the scary part for me because it makes me realize all the experts in sports betting, 90% of them have no idea what they're doing. No idea, like when I say no idea, it would be like someone saying they're a blackjack expert and they kind of know basic strategy, nothing more. All right, so this makes you worry about everything else. So whenever I go and bring my car into the mechanic, whenever the air conditioning technician comes over or whenever I'm buying shoes, like famously like pay less shoes once opened up a store, they pretended to be a luxury shoe store and people are paying $300 for the pair of shoes. Like, oh, I can tell the quality is there.

35:41So it makes me realize I'm getting ripped off in everything in life and what are concerned would be the experts aren't in all aspects. The human condition, it's fascinating. Sometimes good, sometimes not so good. Steve Fessig, everybody at Fessig Sports on Twitter, you behaving yourself on there lately or not, really? No, I misquoted the wrong team on my team's plan. My four guys are out there. Goodbye. Steve Fessig, everybody. Thank you, sir. In 2024, a truck crashed into Canaw and Morezky, where I work. 146 of our dogs needed homes fast. We asked for help on Facebook. Our story spread through WhatsApp messages and Instagram reposts. Immediately, people stepped up and just six hours later, every dog was fostered. I'll never forget how our community showed up for us. Learn how over 3.5 billion people connect to what matters with meta at meta.com slash community. United Health Group is simplifying healthcare

36:43by investing in tools to help patients know more and pay less. These tools help patients find providers and compare costs and save hundreds of dollars annually. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. A numbers game on Fessig, these sports betting network. Back on a numbers game, live from Circle Resort, Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Kill Alexander, Kelly Billing, don't forget. We are brought to you by Profitex and proudly so. And once again, if you're not all Profitex, what are you doing? Sign up by April 6th, purchase at least $25. Get a free $25, then jump into their King of March contest. You go in free trips worth up to $5,000 or even $10,000. Just use the code VCINMM as a March madness, make it first purchase, then learn about the contest on their whole page and start playing. No entry fee is required. Hit $1,000 in volume, you're entered for the $5,000 trip. $10,000, you're in for the $10,000 trip.

37:44Win 10 picks, hit the volume, and every additional 10 wins gets you another entry, download Profitex. Use code VCINMM, make your first purchase, and take a shot at becoming the King of March. You'll Alexander. Kelly Billing back in his chair. Hell, get spreadically typing. Brandly typing away. What do you mean we're completely cool, Cobb, everything's under control? Yeah, Danny's absence isn't even noticed. No, not at all, not at all. Are we going to recap the bets? Shall we do that? As long as I get all yours in, do you? I don't think you did. But my guess is you didn't. I hear yours, here's what I have going on here. I am on St. John's tonight in the college hoops like everybody else apparently. Though Bob, Dr. Bob is on Duke. That should be pointed out. But I am on St. John's plus seven. This was the only pre-flop bet I made in the sweet 16. It remains the only pre-flop bet. I do have the tank of Paloza Parley tonight. Oh, that's right. Which I'm guessing Kelly forgot. That was my... Yeah, absolutely did forget that one. Take it, Paloza is the seven leg brain dead MLB Parley,

38:48major league baseball. I say the money line Parley, the brain dead money line Parley, pardon me, in the NBA, which is a seven leg or the pays 1.25 on the dollar. So a dollar, 25 cents on the dollar. It is a clippers, thunders, rockets, nuggets, warriors, blazers, lakers, NBA brain dead Parley. Let me repeat that. And let me actually give you the opponents on all of these. So clippers, clip show, taking on the, the Pacers, thunder taking on the bulls, rockets taking on the grizzlies, nuggets taking on the jazz, warriors play the wizards, blazers play the mavericks, lakers play the nets, clippers, thunder, rockets, nuggets, warriors, blazers, lakers to pay a dollar, 25 cents on the dollar. We're up a unit point six nine. By the way, the baseball plays reds most wins by the end of April. Boy, there was zero zero with the red socks yesterday against crochet, that the base is loaded with one out and one and it couldn't cash.

39:49They lose three to nothing. Blue J's last team to lose a regular season game. Their season begins today. Total number one seed tournament wins. Oh, both Stevie and I have this over 14 and a half. The Wolverines and the blue devils must win tonight for us to still be alive in this. We need both number one seeds to win. We're at we're at eight right now. We need to get to 10 before the elite eight and then I have you come to win the championship at 16 to one, which I don't really ever even think about that. I have, but I guess it's still alive. So, you know, you never know. You never know as you can't try to win its third title in four years. It should be pointed out you, sir. St. John's and Michigan state for me tonight in college basketball. Just bought off Celtics had laid four and a half with them last night. Jalen Brown is going to miss this game tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. So, just bought off that. So, if you saw that earlier, I mentioned it earlier. It did just by on the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a big Eastern conference matchup,

40:52actually, and the Jalen Durant, most improved player. I bet bet that yesterday we talked about this past couple days. It was getting closer and closer. He had a monster game last night. Just Tim getting more usage even with Kate Cunningham, not in there. I think I think he's going to end up winning this thing. And that number is going to get steep here in the next week. Totally anti-Semitism from you. Yeah, you know me, Tyler Shoemaker's best bet teams on the show today. Women's tournament, sweet 16 tonight. And tomorrow night, he's on LSU minus the eight and a half points. LSU is the fifth shot. They're the, they're the, the shortest shot that is not a number one seed. Let's put it that way to, uh, to win the women's basketball title. However, likely or unlikely, you deem that to be. But he's on LSU in the sweet 16 game. That's tonight against Duke. He's laying eight and a half in that one. He is on Notre Dame plus six and a half tonight against Vanderbilt. You can even get seven on that now. And he's on Texas laying 15 and a half tomorrow night. Speaking of number one seeds, he's on Texas laying the wood against Kentucky

41:54tomorrow night in a women's college hoop. So that should be fun for the sweet 16 games tonight. For tomorrow in the women's tournament, which is super top every with you. Can't expect it to win it all yet again yet again. Only minus 250 to do that. Yeah. That's it. It's like a, um, anybody else? No, nothing, anyone. No, that's it. No men's for talent. Shoot man. Oh, and men's for child shooting. I'm sorry. St. John's plus seven. Hey, another person on St. John's. St. John's Duke under 141. And he's on smarty as well. You and him. He's on Michigan State plus two. You guys are seem patico on that. As far as hour. Oh, by the way, Nick Whale and Darius Garland over points 19 and a half. He did have the one official play on a prop. Darius Garland over 19 and a half points. JVT is on the under in the St. John's Duke game under 142. He is on Alabama plus the points tonight plus 10. Um, you and I, by the way, oh, and Fesick. Notre Dame Vanderbilt women's side under 152.

42:54That's tonight women's hoop. And Dalland Cuff also on the St. John's parade for God's sakes. All of us. I'm sure all of us, except for Dr. Bob. What is that ever gone wrong? Yeah, except for Bob. Um, in the Veson challenge, which, of course, power rated by action points, Kelly and I are lapping the field. Yeah. And Danny, he got in there with a picker too. We have a remaining pick in this round is we are on Alabama plus 10 in the contest. That's it. So we got, it's all we got left. We did, we did two and two yesterday, two and two yesterday. And we deserve the two and two yesterday. It was a clear. Yes, yes, as opposed to bad beats. We absolutely deserve the two and two yesterday. And then in survivor, I am going to take Illinois. He says cautiously because he must. Hey, why am I speaking about a third person? I have to because I'm not, I'm not taking Alabama. And I'm not taking St. John's just not.

43:54I'm saving taking Tennessee. I'm taking Tennessee. What did I say Illinois again? Tennis screwing me up orange gets me. My gosh, guess what I said, Tennessee today, Illinois tomorrow. I lost my bracket. And I see now I lost my bracket kill Tennessee today for me to succeed. Yeah, you're thinking of Illinois, the three seed tomorrow. I still live. I'm lucky enough to do it. I'm doing Michigan state or Iowa state. That's what I'm doing today. Um, yeah, man, good luck. Thanks. Yeah, we might, we might be heads up. Well, listen, do I think I'm getting through? I have no idea. Problem is. So yeah, like I don't know. Okay, Bama's like I'm not playing Bama. They're only a four seat, right? So you're not, it's something you're getting a huge boost from that, right? So I'm not considering that. I would, I would want to save Michigan, uh, St. John's I'm on. But man, I'm not, I'm not confident enough. And then winning outright. What do you mean you're, oh, you're on by the, but yeah, I took the points, but like, man, I don't, I don't know.

44:56I'm confident enough of them winning outright. All this to say once again, if you're, if you're not playing Survivor League yet, you're doing this right. It's fun. It's so great. I know. I do agree with you. Look ahead to tomorrow. I think it's going to be rather simple for me as well to join you. On the, on the Illinois, yeah, Illinois against Iowa. Yeah. And again, the point here is not only going for the longer seeds, the higher seeds, excuse me, the lower seeds, I always mess that up, lower seeds to try to accumulate as many seeding points as possible, but you're also looking to play simultaneously the teams that you think will then get knocked out the next round. And you're saving the Arizona's and the dukes and the Michigan's and whomever for later. Because then it, because then it really does come down to just you win or lose. The seeding stuff kind of goes out the window at that point. Right. And that's right. I think I'm just going to kind of, man, I don't know. I keep changing my mind. I, there's part of me that wants to just kind of leave that east alone and address it. Next set, next, next round. But then it would be because Iowa state, if I go Iowa state, pretty confident,

45:59go in Michigan, going forward and out of that region. I don't really think there's any future value, you know, but either between Tennessee or Iowa state, really, do you think the most picked team tonight will be Tennessee? Because a lot of people have already used them. Yeah, I have a feeling Iowa state will end up being the most used team tonight. I think those would be the top two. Yeah. I think you're probably right. I already used Tennessee. I know there, I know it was a, yeah, that's the chunk earlier. That's the other thing with picking with picking Tennessee is that you will catch up with a lot of the people in front of you, not only because of the number, but just based on the fact that a lot of people just are eliminated from playing them. They have no choice. They can't play them. So it's kind of the obvious one. We know our lose. That's the thing about it. Even if you lose, that was the proper play. I love this. This is so fun because this is there is the part of Alabama that we have brought up. They'll because they're all the aforeseed either a day and a half point dog. Almost nobody's going to pick that problem. Right. Because you're kind of mishugging if you do.

47:00Yeah. There is a mishugging factor. You have to factor no, totally, totally. Yeah, I don't know. All these other teams lose in your own Alabama. You could be looking pretty good. Yeah. So much fun. So great. Maybe we can organize one one day. And again, the first prize will be one day with Todd Wischneff. Second prize will be two days with Todd Wischneff. Gary Woodland up to strokes over Thorbrunson Thorbrunson Thorbrunson Thorbrunson. And we'll leave your guy three back in the Texas Children's Houston open. Go, Moo Moo. Prop points next Nick Whale and Jeff Erickson followed by money moves with JVT and then follow the money with Mishig Paul and Joy from Veecin. Vee sports betting network. Freight rail does more than move goods. It drives America's economy. Every dollar invested generates another $2.50 in economic activity spurring growth from farms to factories.

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