A Numbers Game | March 2, 2026 | Hour 1

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1:01The numbers told the story in hell is down. Swondles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill Out Like Xander gone V-send. Good Monday morning, too, there's a numbers game with V-send these sports betting network V-send.com, Game Plus, iHard Radio, YouTube TV, and of course, Series X of Channel 158, Kill Out Like Xander. Kill A Bydalan alongside. On this second day of March, man, I love March. March is what's favorite part about March. Oh, thanks for asking. First of all, it's a cavalcade of your buddies coming into town, right? I sure. Toddie Wishnevs going to make his appearance for about eight days. Then my DC idiot friends are going to come in after that. When's Toddie coming this week? No, knife. But it's the sneaky, awesome month of just everything even before March madness. Um, tennis is fifth major Indian Wells with conference tournaments. It's just, it's just a fantastic month because once the masters clears in early April, then it's just kind of, all right,

2:01baseball and golf and tennis majors the rest of the summer. It's just a long, halter football kind of thing. That's NBA and NHL. Yeah, but right, but the NBA playoffs, we talked about this last year. It goes on forever. The interminable NBA playoffs. If you don't think, like, it's big of an NBA nut as I am. If you're out there listening, you don't think I have, like, think there are things that are obviously wrong with the league. Yeah, yeah. Of course there are. Maybe the first round doesn't have to be a best of seven. Yes. Yes. That should go. Well, it definitely go back to a best of five. Maybe you don't have to spread out the games as far as you do. That kind of thing. Well, and it's always, the NBA finals is always the one that impacts it because why do you need to set the date? The dates are seven months in advance. That's right. That's right. That's right. The ABC can't adjust. Anyway, the point being March is awesome. And these next two days, very good. First of all, by the way, on the show today, we're not messing around. Joe Pita is going to join us here in the first hour. It is the third part of his three-part series. And this is the, this is the money shot, if you will. Okay. Talked about the building blocks in part one. He gave a case study on the meds in part two. This is Joe Pita's.

3:06You ready for this? 10. There's 30 teams. 10 favorite season win totals. I am including his favorite test of them all, not a word. It's favorite of them all, but 10 completely. And then we'll do a speed round. And then he'll actually give a bet on the first game of the season. How about that? All of that coming up with Joe Pita will also do college basketball formula 3.0. And I do think there is a headline to college basketball formula 3.0, which is it's kind of clear now to me. Wasn't really clear in 1.0 and 2.0, but it's kind of clear now, I think. Wes Reynolds will join us out of Birkel. Join us. So we got a lot of get we got a lot to get to. I just we don't usually start the week talking about a schedule thing. But today and tomorrow for tennis and baseball hardhouse is kind of big. I mentioned Indian Wells, the BNP body by open, if you want to do it by sponsor, but Indian Wells, tennis is de facto fifth major, which is in Palm Springs, which I'm very bougie. So I'm going on Friday with Deborah Song, fashion stylist. This is our annual

4:08trek over there. Yeah, bougie. Go over here. But the draw is today at 3 p.m. the tournament starts on Wednesday. So Drew didn't say exact Cohen and I have a very small window to get out of podcast. We will get that window done at 6 p.m. Pacific today. So we'll do the Indian Wells podcast, 6 p.m. Pacific today. Oh wow. Okay. Then we will turn around tomorrow morning after this show, which I heard Jensen and Dave talking about prior to our coming on the air and buy the books, Jensen, Lewis, Dave Ross, Captain America, talking about our MLB draft tomorrow. Our first annual visa and MLB futures draft, which I am told I have the fourth pick in out of 10. How do you feel about that? That's a great question. I don't, I don't know what I would have wanted. I don't know if I wanted more of the snake and 910. Here's the order. By the way, Steve Phillips, former Metz GM gets the first pick in the draft. Oh, yeah, completely random there. Well, let me just say this. If Adam Burkett has no connection to the man at all, you know, if Adam Burk had gotten it, then the fix was really it. Thank God he got to.

5:10I have no idea. This former Major League baseball pitcher Lance Lynn, who I've bet on many times. I should try to rattle him before he makes his pick. You know, I bet on you many times didn't work out for you. Well, Lance, what did you pick? Then it's me, Howard Bender, Matt Brown, Charger permitting. Matt Eumanns, Jeff Erickson, Mark Borchard, Jensen Lewis. Jensen gets the 10th. He gets the true snake, bass winner, nine. He's the guy to watch out for. Okay. Yes, is I told it Jensen before the show the ultimate flex would be last pick. Make make a bet on himself somehow, you know, like Jensen Lewis too. I don't know record over a half a save or something. You don't know. Wishing Phillip Rivers come back. He could make a comeback during the season. It's possible. Oh, I actually put his put his weight on the scale here. So this is again, it's division winner, 10 categories, division winner, AL or NL pennant, AL or NL manager of the year, World Series winner, win total over, win total under, AL MVP, NL MVP, AL Sion, NL Sion, AL or NL rookie of the year.

6:15Is that 10? No, it's 11. I believe. Okay, 11 categories. I lied. And that's it. Tomorrow, 1 p.m. Eastern 10 a.m. Pacific right after we're on the air, Kelly live on air, we will do that draft. I love this way more than the NFL one. This to me is more heavy. The NFL, the NFL one, I ended up with a lot of bangles. I didn't really plan on that happening and see how that went. Yeah, yeah. Well, there, no, I was, I mean, Robin, I were breaking it down actually before the show. It was very clear that like two or three people had some bangles futures in mind. And then it became an arms race to get to them. Well, I didn't have it in mind. I was just sort of let that way pardon me, but this I have a definite strategy to this. I will not reveal here. I have a definitely a definite sort of North star on this, but we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Shouldn't last it, it shouldn't be very long. Should be pretty quick. 11, 11 categories, 11 categories, 10 picks. Doing this in an hour, hour and change. I'm gonna guess. Oh, it's open ended. It's not like I don't know if it's open ended, but I guess I figured it was just in that hour was it who was a

7:17human's in the middle of the in the middle of what looked like it was going to be a three-hour NFL draft somewhere like an hour in humans goes, maybe we want to like cut down the commentary in that human's way. He's still the odds on favor to be the guy to make that same comment in this draft. Can I tell you something? Let's maybe get this going all faster. He was 100% right. We got it in two hours and change. This one will be about a half that I would say. This is good. These are great, great baseball minds in this one. So looking forward to the actual former GM, actual former players, fantasy guys, all the fantasy guys you got to watch out for those guys too. The Jeff Erickson Howard Fenders of the world. Yeah, these guys have been plugging stuff into spread sheets for two months already. Bortard is like really doing stuff now. Anyway, look forward to that tomorrow. So it's Indian Wells tonight, 6 p.m., not to mention numbers game this morning, tomorrow morning, and then the MLB futures draft. So a very busy 24-hour stretch here, which again, March, it's awesome. I think we need a preview with Mark before. Before I

8:23get him on tomorrow. Yeah, what do you think about it? Try to get some of that. Conversations Kelly should have off-air with him. But I was thinking about this earlier. Say, what are you going to pick with your ninth pick? I don't want to say that. Just maybe just a baseball preview and then maybe what do you think you'll come back with with the 12th pick? Anyway, we'll find out. We'll do that. Okay. The other thing that people are, again, wrapped up in is our NBA brain dead Parley. Now, yesterday, another one hit. This will not count to our numbers game record because it was on the weekend. But I answered some folks on Twitter as well on this, which is yesterday's was calves, thunder, and lakers. And that hit. It was about $4.50, $0.45 on the dollar. But we're not going to count it towards a personal right towards the numbers game record because it was on a weekend. But it's working out just fine. Now, just I threw two of those legs in with the Milwaukee Bucks. That was a choice. Wow. I didn't get home. Yeah. That's all the end. Bucks scored eight points in the fourth quarter. I saw eight whole points in an NBA game.

9:25So again, just real real quick eight tanking teams. Indiana and Washington fall under the the somewhat trustworthy. Indiana has lost 10 of 12. One of those wins was against another tanker. Wizards have lost 18 of 24. Three of those six were against other tankers. That's what the somewhat trustworthy. The Pacers and the Wizards next category is the trustworthy except when they play other tanking teams, which is Memphis, which is lost 13 of 17. But all four of those wins were against other tankers. Wow. Brooklyn. Brooklyn in the end yesterday. Yeah. Brooklyn has lost 26 of 31. Four of those five losses were against other tankers. And then the, to me, the most trek tank trustworthy put really, honestly, the categories are something we just put into tears. And now I'm not so sure if they're a precise anymore, but bulls have lost 14 of 16. Sorry about that yesterday, Kelly. The only problem with the bulls is like, we've talked about this. They basically just, it's basically just a new team since the trade deadline. And like, there is

10:27some talent on there, but it's just what they've clearly given you signal that they would prefer to lose these kids. Sacramento's lost 18 of 20. Both of their wins against other tankers. Mavs have lost 13 of 15. Both of their wins against other tankers. And the jazz have lost 17 of 21. Half of their four wins have been against other tankers, but they have in many ways done the most tanky, tankable things along the way in this tank of loser 2026. So as far as do we have a play tonight, my answer is no for me, though you may get frisky and include when, when the lines come up for tomorrow, you may throw the rockets in tonight at the wizards. If you want to get frisky with it tonight, but officially, officially today, I will not have any teams included tomorrow is an epic tank day. Tomorrow's going to be a at least a 14 tanker. Yeah, you got the Maverick set, the Hornets, the wizards at the magic nets at the heat. There's a lot of options. Grizzlies at the

11:29T wolves. I mean, you got four at least tomorrow. So some people get frisky with the rockets today. And then others will get frisky, but the nuggets tonight as well at the jazz. I'm not going to. I do think those are worth keeping in mind that we brought that up last week, especially the, especially on Mondays with the short slate we're going to have a lot of these openers will be out for Tuesday games before we get tip off in those in that first rocket's wizards games. So something to just look ahead on. It is an amazing window, though, into the, the sports better's mind, though, because for all the sharpness out there, right? As soon as you start doing these, it's such a great little vehicle to have in the background, going a passive brain dead parlay, just sort of accumulate little bankroll builder in the background. People love that. So what's funny is you say that because then me as like an NBA guy and I'm trying to consume as much like information as I can about these teams. Yeah, cracks me up when I have one of these legs, right? No, like I brought this up last week and I'm locked in on the Hornets playing whatever got awful team. Then you're like, why am I watching this when there's like a good game on like

12:32they're 12 point favorites. They better win this. That's right. Formula. 409. Now, Formula 3.0 college basketball on the other side will get into it. I think it's clearing up. Have we narrowed it down to five to seven? We'll find out next on a numbers game at visa. These sports betting networks. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vsimpro.

13:44Learn more at instagram.com slash team accounts. Right now new fan duel customers can get up to $300 back in bonus bets every day for 10 days. Place a tournament bet using the token and if it doesn't win, you'll get up to $300 back in bonus bets every single day for 10 days straight. You can even mix things up with same game parlays for a shot at a bigger payout. Fan duel. It's time to dance. 21 plus and president selects seats. Bonus bets are nonwithdrawable and expire seven days after receive tokens are received an increments of one per day restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800-Gambler a numbers game on fee set these sports betting network get ready to win a larger than life world soccer champion to experience only at circle resort and casino Las Vegas one lucky winner scores at two nights they at circle VIP cabana for the games stadium swim with $500 in credit plus $250 in food and beverage you can take that down Kelly to fit in food beverage no problem oh

14:46and now they get to add this up 500 for the cabana which you can use on booze then 250 so that's $750 in booze in food if you want it yeah I recommend mixing some and then you get the round of celebratory cocktail so it's really more like $800 plus your addition isn't peccable arriving style with limo transportation celebrate with cocktails and legacy club enter now kick off the world soccer championship and certain resort casino for giveaway details visit circle Las Vegas dot com we get tweets being at the book the better life Tim Lawson who he says USL championship season starts this week I'm looking forward to the in-depth preview that's Tim's way of saying I'm available what's uh which one is that Lee is that the women I believe so yeah okay am I wrong about that uh trip temper with mid low major conference turnies how much weight do you sign to the familiarity of the teams as a tipping point to bet the underdogs I'm a dog better by default but these turnies seem to birth more quirky results than power five trip great question let's

15:47just talk real quick this is when the college basketball uh conference tournaments begin actually we have one that begins today there's an in-play game in the horizon leak so it actually officially conference turnies officially start tonight with that one game then tomorrow patriot league sun patriot league in the sun belt start on wednesday it's the Atlantic sun big south north east Ohio valley and summit league Thursday it's the Metro Atlantic Missouri valley west coast conference and then Friday it's the coastal never want to say colonial yet right the coastal athletic and this and the uh southern conference saturday it's the american east and the big sky sunday it's the southland monday it's the the southwest conference and then Tuesday next week it's all the big right that's when that starts Tuesday and Wednesday next week where the power five start but anyway to your question trip temper I don't have a definitive answer for you but I will tell you the guy that does the best conference basketball week historically and that is our buddy doctor bob we should really

16:51get doctor bob on here this week and next week he destroys small conference basketball so we'll get him on uh scott new york mess 16 is the indian wells podcast live tonight I believe it is why time check we'll have to confirm that for me I believe it is live 6 p.m. Pacific 9 p.m. Eastern Tim Bowers this is all in capital kill blank he says in certain middle name Alexander is all capitals I've been waiting all weekend to be fake mad at you for me binging love is blind this weekend then I got to the post pod episodes and found them funny so thank you I guess he says love is blind all resolves this week uh real quick to not interrupt the important stuff because that is the important stuff usl you damn right it is usl is the second tier so this is below the mls oh second tier men's yeah oh we were confusing the n-w-s-o-w-s-o that's right Cody Betts football Cody hogways they're scoring system in the futures draft at all it's a great question no I don't think so I think it's just done by units yeah I think which what we've typically done in the past

17:54although I don't exactly remember the football one but other ones we've done on shows and everything it's usually like a hundred dollar bet yeah um and then yeah we just calculate units at the end right so somebody could go one for ten but hit a hundred to one monster shot and still win it yeah and the prizes you get to a lot money for charity right I believe that's the price not to know that is correct that is the price I don't know how much that's great yeah and you know what you know what Gil hmm I'm going to include another Chris pie-fi from Kelly Pidlin too oh yeah well so hopefully it's you so I don't really have to try I will tell we'll tell Steve Phillips and Lancelin if they win it we'll be like hey you get a uh Chris pie-fi from Kelly Billy they'll be they'll be like um say what now they're gonna be like I'm glad I joined New York mess 16 Scott ads Gillie Gillie did a 16 brain dead parlay yesterday now you see here here's here's what starts is Kelly and we're talking about this off air the beauty of the uh of these tanka paulusa parlay which we did back in 2018 and revisiting again this year is that we just trying to stick to the script good for you Scott oh it didn't hit it did it hit yes it did hit

18:59I believe so every once in a while you're gonna get frisky and it's gonna work out for you but then a lot of people want to go mm-hmm too far and you're gonna eventually lose now you won't lose more than a unit but still Jason start just know you're going off so where we do the categories yes you're going off of what kill is very very simply leg out for you the teams to attack and how to attack them why did I why did I do that like Regis that's why we do the categories Jason Stark I did uh Boston see Jason Stark did it yes should I did Boston the Lakers the Thunder and through an SGA 20 plus points to get it down to minus 130 after the Lowry debacle of the bear trap oh my gosh yeah good I have to talk about that at some point Jane Lowry Shrek McFee really good to see the Texans helping stride by trading one of the two competent offensive linemen they have oh yeah they did that again they did that again I I don't really don't uh why teams uh because didn't someone do this last year too it's the uh the Browns trading for a Houston Texans offensive one hmm okay uh and then Brian Shaver wants to know could you repeat your love

20:01as blind bets sure I'll repeat them they were all knows by the way all three of them were knows um I said no on I can't remember the name Devonte was a no to get married Ashley Devonte is with Brittany a little cute girl Brittany Ashley who's with the lying dude Alex that was a no to get married and then Mike who's with Emma I said no to get married 85% on Mike 90% on Devonte 90% on Ashley all right college basketball three oh wait one more question here Doug Tuttle how you feeling about the M.O.B futures draft spot number four I was mentioning that earlier I don't know what I would have preferred if I want to snake at the end like Jensen has or or bort your base winner do you get what you get I don't think there's an advantage if you if you if you have the proper strategy I don't think there's an advantage to where you are how many uh how long's the current list of picks have you started writing things down is oh yeah what's in your head right now no no with Indian Wells I that's a great data for Indian Wells is there I wanted to get my draft already in order I have my I know what my top picks will be nice

21:06like do you have a one and then a backup just in case that gets taken correct yeah yeah I have a I have teeth like I like you never want to be that like with the tankers I have the tears you can't you can't be that guy especially in the first round oh like you took my pick and then you waited you're on the clock and you're searching that's really you got to be ready to go oh no I'm prepared I'm prepared I'm ready to go all right college basketball formula three point oh let's do this again no intro hey rob marino's back from his seven week journey around the world he's going to be working on that oh okay oh this is a nice there we got graphics hey oh look at that that's a uh that's a basketball in a uh a bracket to formula in a bracket is that it's a beaker it's a beaker that's what I'm looking for it's a beaker but then there's a right then there's the the bracket on the other side okay I like the beat very creative well done Michelle all right last 35 champs had more assistant turnovers that's straightforward 32 the last 35 had a head coach with sweet 16 experience kevin ollie 2014 her Yukon and then two of the last three years this is the

22:09category that is that is buckling Dan Hurley of course with Yukon in 2023 when he won the first of the back to back and then Todd golden with floor last year 29 alas 30 went into the tournament with the least three wins versus teams in the top 10 percent of rpi that's how long we've been doing this rpi 29 alas 30 Yukon 2014 the exception last 30 champs at the top 75 strength of schedule yeah that checks out 22 of the last 23 champs from the top 20 and adjusted offensive efficiency at ken pomm only Yukon and 2014 they were such a formula buster that team the shabaz Napier led Yukon champions of 2014 and then 22 of the last 23 champs from the top 20 and adjusted defensive efficiency 2021 Baylor bears the only exception there they finished 22nd I believe it was okay which brings us to this year on the outside looking in now that the headline for me in 3.0 version 3.0 here is we have some clear things happening the outside looking in category has drifted

23:09a bit none of these teams are as close to being qualified this week as they were last week so Texas tech despite their their win over Iowa State Illinois Gonzaga Purdue Texas tech is the closest after that win over Iowa State on Saturday of this bunch but they're not like super duper close but Texas tech is the closest of the teams that are on the outside looking in Texas tech Illinois Gonzaga and Purdue kind of in that order the currently qualified teams there are seven of them this will not surprise anybody and I think there's two weak links here right but the seven qualified are Michigan Duke Arizona Florida Houston Iowa State and as predicted Yukon enters now of those seven the two that kind of don't meet the smell test I think folks would agree is Houston and Iowa State Iowa State who we just talked about got crushed on Saturday at

24:12home by Texas tech Iowa State now at Arizona tonight oh boy so we'll see how that goes Arizona is about to touch down seven and a half point favorite in that game but currently qualified Kelly Michigan Duke Arizona Florida Houston Iowa State and Yukon and those seven are really kind of it kind of separated from the group now some within the seven have fallen back within the seven like in Iowa State but those seven are definitely the qualifiers and I think most would agree yeah even if it's not Houston and Iowa State that it's Michigan Duke Arizona Florida and Yukon like that's the group it's gonna be so interesting when the tournament happens because we've already said there's a bunch of really good teams if not great yeah how many upsets are they gonna be that's what's gonna make like survivor and your and your upset rewarded brackets so interesting this year because I think the upsets will be scarce but if you can hit the one or two or three that happened huge you're just gonna be ahead of the field from the early going

25:16show pita season wind next a numbers game on v said these sports betting network college hoops season heating up best betting stretch of the year right around the corner right now v said is offering our hoops mania special mania get v said pro access from now through May 1st for just 29 99 with v some pro you'll get daily best best from v said hosting guests real-time draft kings and circa betting splits a i powered prop tools and matchup analysis 24-7 video and full show replays on the v said watch app plus our march mania betting guide including team profiles forever return the team key trends for each round expert bracket and future strategies and best bets from v said's top analysts if you're betting the tournament is the must sign up today at v said dot com slash subscribe that's v s i n dot com slash subscribe normally I would read more tweets here but kelly there is no time to lose oh we got baseball business to get to joe pita joins his three part or is it the third part pardon me of his three parts special that he's done here been kind

26:16enough to join us twice last week uh third time today multiple city San Francisco and Philly again today uh we have nothing but the uh the business end of the three part series today a bunch of season winds and then we'll actually get to a line for opening day joe pita joins courtesy progressive guest line you follow him on twitter at magic rat sf joe good morning has there ever been an hour lifetime an earlier start i'm not talking about like two random japan games but like full slate opening day as there is this year was it the 25th yeah it's three weeks from Wednesday night um so yeah it hits uh we do get right in um it's always weird to what one game on wednesday and then like ten on thursday and then friday you have some opening games and you have other teams playing their second game which i'd i'd never really understand yeah okay well let's get right into it let's talk at first time you were here you talked about building blocks to how you do season winds second time you gave a case study on the new york metropolitan which you i

27:20believe were over on the meds yes over on the meds i these are gonna be we're gonna get through ten let's start with the american league and i know we don't like to say one is necessarily your favorite but this first one might be right the red socks it it's certainly my favorite under and probably my favorite overall uh yeah it just happens to go this way because we're doing this by divisions uh in the in the al east i like the red socks under 87 and a half wins the number i'm citing that i sent to kelly this weekend is either the best market available at either fandal or surka but of course shop around because maybe you can get better uh but boston under 87 and a half look they are replacing more than any other team uh they are replacing the highest rate of success of plate uh plate appearances they have to replace not a big volume it's just about 1150 plate appearances but those players had runs created uh 30 percent above normal that's like trying to replace uh from last year one and a half uh to two bobby wick juniors that's a lot to replace and

28:23they're banking on really in the lineup they're banking on wilson contraris and then in the rotation they've added uh sunny gray and ranger suarez as of course as philly's fan love ranger wish him well but that is banking on three guys that are over 30 uh 33 for contraris 30 for ranger and 36 for sunny gray they have to be very good to get the um to get the red socks to 89 wins with an above average uh schedule uh that's an easy under for me what's your role this Chapman line about the red socks this year yeah he he is so old okay i don't remember what i told you but he can not have another career year in his late 30s like he did as well last year it was an extreme comment that i was not going to go well from this year that's right uh okay the other one in the a at least they are lined to have the fewest wins in the division i always find this franchise to be a bit of a conundrum every offseason you're over on the raise yeah over 76 and a half wins look if

29:26shame maclanahan uh makes 20 plus starts as all the projection systems are showing and if he's you know the the same shame maclanahan is before they're they're projected to outscore their opponents for for my so just over 81 wins um the lineup doesn't look that impressive but it's always with Tampa it's platoon heavy so it's actually stronger than it looks from a composite basis because of course they're probably better than any other team at putting people in the position to succeed um so you know there's a lot of cushion if they do get outscored at 76 and a half now you think it's a sigh haven't as a solid overplay okay to the american league central there's your couple that i think we've heard uh i know one of them myself uh produced it but this these are a couple in the ails central that have been pretty popular the first is you're over on the white socks too it is my very favorite overgill um and i didn't expect that but boy do i like this

30:27i like this offense um you know given the expectations um i had them as a 66 win team last year and they are now replaced in 1500 played appearances that were a good 25 percent below normal and they're replacing those with four guys who all project pretty well and there's actually one of them which is uh what more uh more kami a real potential breakout you know which the white socks don't necessarily have in their lineup that they could have a four win player there um this just looks to me like an easy over the bullpins a bit above average and so is the defense now the rotation is terrible it's probably projecting to be second worst and i see that but this is a 67 and a half win projection um a little help from the defense little help from the bullpin perhaps that can mitigate the rotation and i'd like to see them win some six five games um over 67 and a half that's my favorite over on the board over on the white socks by the way real quick back to Chapman your line was he will give up more runs by memorial day than he did all of last year

31:29that was your Chapman line that's right that's right yep okay and the other one in the ails central you and i are simpatico again on this one for a second straight year under on the guardians yeah now i missed the best number and i'll get to that when we get to one of the uh nationally teams i'll expand on that a little but under 78 and a half um you're right we've talked about this you've talked about this their extreme lock from both a Pythag basis from a sequencing basis it's been talking it's been talked about on your show for a year um they they were essentially a true under 500 team last year from true talent and then they did nothing they've stood pat so they only have to replace 750 plate appearances and i do like that they picked up reshawskins within the last week it is a help but i still see so much regression coming that you know it's every every unit is below average except the defense um you know so we'll ride this one again this year and you know uh hat tip them again if they somehow outscore their

32:31opponents to the american league west a couple overs and neither of which are my over on the rangers you're over on which two clubs yeah starting with the athletics go i really like this again sort of like Tampa we get a lot of cushion for a team that i think is going to mildly outscore their opponents at 75 and a half wins um that like i say it's a lot of cushion this is a great offense i don't think anybody disputes that the problem is of course the rotation in the ball pin but and we i think we have to go back to 2014 to say this for the athletics help could be coming at mid season not just from the minor leagues but i think the front office telegraphed their intentions when they got involved in the nolan aeronauto bidding this off season and in fact they offered st. Louis more than arizona did in terms of picking up his contract i think if you see the a's outscoring opponents by may or losing some eight seven games they're gonna you'll see them go after some relievers just like they went after john lester as you

33:34may remember uh as a rental in uh 2014 when they knew they had a pennant winning possibility uh boy mason miller would look good on this team right now but you know we'll see what they do he sure would and the other overs on on the division champ mariners yes he had over 90 and a half gill i look at this um you know excluding the dodgers i think this is the the easiest glide path uh to a division title that that is out there um it's an up you know to top ten all their units are top ten the only weakness i see um it's not a very good platoon line up so i think they there's a weakness against left handed uh um pitching but other than that i see a glide path to the division title all right let's try let's try to squeeze in the nl least here while we're at it you have a couple clubs uh in the nl starting with your fillies at 89 and a half which way yeah yeah it's under 89 and a half uh yes this was a true talent 96 win team last year but everything went right and you know virtually there's virtually no room for improvement

34:39shwarber had a career year you know trade turner probably played back to his ceiling um there's just and ranger sores is now gone and who knows with wheeler he's supposed to be back by may which is about how much he pitched last year but can he reach that level last year because remember he was neck and neck with paul schemes in terms of a psi young candidate last year there's just i i get and this team is old um there only path to 90 wins is if this bull pin is so lights out they have four guys with a sub three e alright it's possible but i don't want to bet it that way i'm taking the under 89 and a half and then the nationals at 65 and a half or 65 shop around and not low enough you're saying under not you know i don't see how this team doesn't lose a hundred games um they certainly signaled their intention for the roster when they got rid of McKenzie Gore i think if anybody has a good first half they will shed those players as well um like i say look when miles michaels is your opening day starting scheduled to be your opening day starting

35:40picture oh that is a bad bad team and like i say i i just i don't see how they don't lose a hundred games especially in that division playing you know 45 games against the uh braves mattes and philly's okay well recap he's joe's given eight so far two in the ale east central west and n l east we'll recap those on the other side he's got one more in the nl central one more in the nl west and then we'll talk about opening night between the giants and yankies then kelin i'll throw some teams out of him for uh some speed round season wins as well his thoughts on those teams joe pita from philly today on a numbers game advice of these sports betting network coming back in 2024 a truck crashed into cana in more rescue where i work 146 of our dogs needed homes fast we asked for help on facebook our stories spread through whatsapp messages and instagram reposts immediately people stepped up and just six hours later every dog was fostered i'll never forget

36:42how our community showed up for us learn how over three point five billion people connect to what matters with metta at metta.com slash community right now new fan dole customers can get up to three hundred dollars back in bonus bets every day for ten days place a tournament bet using the token and if it doesn't win you'll get up to three hundred dollars back in bonus bets every single day for ten days straight you can even mix things up with same game parley's for a shot at a bigger pale fan dole it's time to dance 21 plus in president selects states bonus bets are nonwithdrawal and expire seven days after received tokens are received an increments of one per day restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler a numbers game on fee sent these sports betting network back on a numbers game Alexander Kelly Bidlin Joe PETA kind enough to join us for a second segment as we continue the rapid fire season wins from Joe and more coming up as well we're just talking off air landslin

37:46part of our MLB futures draft tomorrow and Joe just reminded us off off air the Joe and I actually we bet what was it we bet on lance lin opening night 2013 what was the price on lance lin i remember this well about 155 to plus 160 yeah and and we gave Kelly 10 guesses off air what sportsbook we watched at he went over 10 legacy stadium I would have gone over 25 yeah I also like that Joe's Joe's like you where the Joe's done this to me probably seven hundred and 32 times in our career working together he's like I think this is what happened Kelly check on this for me and 99.99 percent of the time he's right Joe's like I think we were at this sportsbook I think the price range was like plus 150 to plus 160 if you remember the money line I think you remember the game that was when baseball will start with the Sunday night opener right we do that so March 25th is the opener this year and then March 26th there's a bunch of games so we'll get to that opener between the giants and the Yankees coming up but first let me just recap uh Joe's eight season wins that

38:48he's just given in the AL East Boston under 87 and a half it's his favorite under I always shop around these are the circa and uh fandal numbers that we gave it 87 and a half on the uh socks on the socks Tampa Bay over 76 and a half in the AL East AL Central White Sox over 67 and a half his favorite over of the bunch the Guardians under 78 and a half uh AL West athletics over 75 and a half Mariners over 90 and a half and then and at least Philly under 89 and a half and Washington under 65 Miles Michaelis is your opening day starter all right you have one in the NL Central who that yeah Gil and when I mentioned this I'll go back to the Guardians um when Fandall put these markets out in January it was during the NFL playoffs I quickly started my work because I was like I want to jump on these if I think they're going to move uh I jumped on the Guardians under 80 and a half I was short would go down sure enough it's down to I jumped on the athletics over 75

39:50and a half certain that was going to go up it hasn't in doing that I passed on the over Pittsburgh 74 and a half wins because I didn't think they'd be popular I didn't think anyone else would see what I thought was hidden value so wrong about that and here I am now four wins higher you know I'll get a ticket in at at the Pirates over 78 and a half um the they were a they were a competent 71 win team last year especially by the end of the season um what is where their improvement is coming from is they are replacing 2100 played appearances 2400 played appearances excuse me of performance that was 20 to 25 percent below league average that's replacement level if you replace those four players with just somebody competent you should pick up six seven eight wins and some I look I like you know I like O'Zuna coming over from Atlanta I think he's more than just a you know I might be

40:54high man on him but I you I think you could get two wins out of him which might be a three to four when pickup on who he's replacing I'd like to see O'Neal Cruz play a little better but just in over I think 78 and a half it's getting closer to a lean 74 and a half was a real no-brainer I see this as roughly a 500 team uh comparable to Tampa Bay and and the athletics but I think they have a better chance of sneaking into the third wild card spot than those other two teams I like the Zuna was gonna pick up as well though though that's one of those bets again I always remember when I bet an over on the Rockies one year and Roxy says to me he goes I'd like to talk to you in July see how you feel about that bet so we'll see we'll see with the pirates uh in July what the story is all right to the NL West it's our hometown Giants Joe which where you going yeah I'm under 81 and a half to go I had them as a true talent 79 win team last year they really have pretty much stood pat um they got two new lineup additions Harrison Bader and Luisa Rez meh in terms of I don't

41:56really see improvement there I've got them as a you know mildly below average rotation mildly below average bullpen so you know it's kind of the inverse of some of these other calls I got them being outscored uh so it makes it a you know an 81 and a half makes it a you know pretty easy under for me pirates over 78 and a half wins Giants under 81 and a half wins closing out Joe's 10 season wins a third of Major League Baseball here on the show today okay let's go to opening night speaking of the Giants at Oracle Park the Yankees at the Giants Wednesday March 25th begins the Major League Baseball season you have a play on this game yeah well yeah well I have a line I'll tell you how I was going to line it I thought this would be a nice little surprise like hey after doing all these now looking at opening day pictures assuming it's going to be neither team has announced it but assuming it's going to be max freed versus uh web um I've got the fair market at I line it at New York Yankees minus 133 but Gill here's a nice surprise yes our friends at profit have listed

43:03all and of course look profit we know the sweepstakes iceberg is melting not available to near as many listeners as it was before but they're also on the route to to the CFTC approval just like I think if you look at the site the lot you know the way the queue goes you've got profit you've got Novig and then you've got a sport trade you know all you know friends of the better right um and I certainly am hopeful that all three of these sites will do a better job with sports than say what's offered right now in the prediction market CFTC world but so we can go to profit right now and you can see the the opening lines for all 15 games I see the uh giants are minus one or excuse me the Yankees are minus 128 giants plus 116 I don't know if that's indicative of how it will open up wide like I say I've got the fair value at Yankees minus 133 and I will certainly be looking at some of those other opening day lines as well so you see an incremental amount of value on the Yankees is what you're saying

44:06not enough to make a bet that's right and it will be interesting to see like how these lines move as other books like I say I think this is first in the market to post anything it's a beautiful thing all right um they're all up at profit love that and uh once again we'll pull through all these up at the end of the show again all of Joe's uh season wins it'll be on the uh website vison.com slash picks for subscribers as well so we will recap these again if you missed them at the end of the show all right um let's do a little speed round uh just get your thoughts so they didn't they weren't included in the top 10 uh season win total displays oh you want to start Kelly want me to start you want to honor I've got I've got like seven teams right now all right do pod rays uh pod rays um the let's see I've got them as a uh they start lean over 83 and a half Kelly um they were a true talent 89 win team last year so they you know the it the market's adjusted a lot like I say I lean over uh 83 and a half for them start the season two games back to the Dodgers that's it that's it all right well let's let's start with the Dodgers 102 and a half

45:10where do where do you stand on them over under sigh kill they are so good uh last year when they opened it what 103 or 104 and a half I thought it was a snap under you didn't even have to think about it kill they are so good this year not they've improved but I mean they've improved a lot they got rid of the only dead weight they had in Michael Conforto and uh an Tucker I go I actually lean over even though as Joshi hadn't says I don't think they care if they win 100 games they only really care about the 15 they play in October but this team is so I mean give this lineup is ridiculous and they've got forced I look I have them as 114 win roster on opening day and it's going to be the same for the second third and fourth starters as well that's like having Terrick scuba essentially picked 162 games with no degradation it's ridiculous how good they are I actually lean over oh hey there's all I have to say I told you

46:13all year the Tigers needed to do that with scuba okay uh let's go gel let's go with the Baltimore Orioles uh Baltimore well the the look I lean I think it's a popular over I lean over 85 and a half really due to the potential of that lineup if they can just stop with the injury bug um but it's a big adjustment up from where they were last year I I couldn't make it a play yeah I would love to see in around 82 wins 85 and a half I thought was a little excessive but I do lean over Texas Ranger selfishly 83 and a half yeah love love the rotation kill do not like the lineup so it's a pass for me I certainly see the upside I like a McKenzie Gore future I think what you already have in your pocket it's really can this lineup bounce back they've made some changes doesn't excite me that much looking at you know sort of their market we'd go further but Joe has a hard out he's got to do stuff he's there in filling uh with his mom Joe thank you so much not

47:18for only for today but also for all three we appreciate it man hope to talk often during the thanks guys can't wait for uh in a few weeks that's right 23 days away Joe P to everybody at magic rat sf on Twitter coming to us from San Francisco part one and then from Philly parts two and three Miami Marlins 72 and a half I was gonna my next one was the Rockies I oh my see I was gonna go royals because everybody loves the royals we were yeah I was gonna go Rockies but I was like we've done three NL West teams now when we get out of here well um that's pretty awesome the Rockies are maybe the most the Rockies situation is beyond fascinate to me what are we at 54 and a half for the win total yeah but I mean I want to see them win like 18 games I gotta do segments on that just the conundrum of that ballpark and yeah having a roster basically a home team roster and a weight team roster country club and cognizant next few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports and nothing brings us together quite like team USA at the Olympic winter games

48:21from NBC Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across Xfinity and Peacock Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America sharing every moment with millions when team USA steps onto the world stage we're not just watching we're cheering together this winter we're all on the same team Comcast proud partner of team USA right now new fan duel customers can get up to three hundred dollars back in bonus bets every day for 10 days place a tournament bet using the token and if it doesn't win you'll get up to three hundred dollars back in bonus bets every single day for 10 days straight you can even mix things up with same game parlays for a shot at a bigger pale fan duel it's time to dance 21 plus in president select states bonus bets are not with trouble and expire seven days after receive tokens are received an increments of one per day restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER