A Numbers Game | January 9, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story of how he's doing. Swindles 80 to believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander gone. V sent our number three of a numbers game at V sent these sports betting network. V sent dot com game plus. I heart radio YouTube TV series XM channel 158. Every taking a sit we appreciate it's Kill I like Xander Kelly's behind the glass. Cause Fest is going to join us here momentarily. So I read some of the tweets. A lot of love for buckies from earlier in the show. And boy, Bucky's basically a roadside super Walmart. He chimed in on that. Martel J can confirm that buckies is superior to Wawa. Wawa has great sandwiches and build your own options. Every Christmas includes buckies though. He says you can't Christmas shop at Wawa. Maybe I'll send numbers game jerky sampler box. Expect power ratings though. Thank you appreciate that. Slick Nick 312 listening on delay but to go back to West's first time at buckies. I hope he indulged in the delicacies of the brisket sandwich and the beaver nuggets. If you know, you know, wow, I don't love for it. And then Jason McKinney.

1:01I've never been to Wawa's with buckies around 74,000 square feet barbecue and all the snacks you can imagine, including fresh baked pastries. I hate seeing them because if I stop with my will hill size family, I know I'm going to spend well over $200 before I get gas. My goodness, all those all those tweets about that one thing. And I owe you a 69 moving on now. I was concerned about the charges offensive line. However, I'll trust in Harbaugh. I just have more rushing yards than Bo Jackson. Yes, that is the trivia question to answer. And Jason Stark Oregon is a classic bully team. They'll lose tonight. That is Bob's Dr. Bob's phrase bullies. Teams that beat up on the week. But get beat by the strong. So that's how Jason Stark characterizes Oregon without further ado. It's time for Physic Fridays. Let's do it. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physic Fridays. He is the only. Two-time winner back to back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back of the day. Coming off yet another contest win, which we'll talk about here.

2:02But first before we talk about his cons, first of all, hello, good morning, Steve Fesick. Happy to be here, Gilly. You can follow him at Fesick Sports at your own peril, though. He's not very nice on Twitter. Before we get into your contest stuff, because congratulations are coming to you. You came in here with shorts. It's like 43 degrees outside. What's the story? I like to wear cargo pants, because it gives me the option to be able to go to the Caesar's gym and work out. And they're normal looking pants. So I can multitask with them. However, there's a flaw. There's like six pockets in cargo pants. And I tend to be carrying a lot of pants. Sometimes markers and such. And my wife let me know if there was one more instance of the markers and the pens finding them way. They're way into the dryer and they're resulting horrific mess disaster. The cargo pants would be no more. And we had one more slip up. And thus it was like China syndrome out, went the cargo pants. You threw them all out?

3:02Yeah. Your wife has two children. Your actual son and you. Oh, there's no question. Yeah. Hey, how good was crack yesterday? The crack man. Of course it was. What it was. Will Hill said throw 102 on the corners yesterday? Crack. He was on fire. Oh, absolutely. And how about that will hill family single-handedly crashed the Cromwell VIP snack area, which is for adults only two weeks later, they ceased operations based upon all the pretzels and trail mix and beverages that were consumed or carted out that afternoon. All right, Steve. As a congratulations are in order. You've done it again. You'll be back at Circa. This is your first of two appearances at Circa tonight. Yes. I'm on that show at six tonight. Yeah. So the check the check ceremony. And then I'll go to the check ceremony. Oh, you're doing the human Friday football invitation. Right. So if you don't like Fezick, you don't have to listen to Matt show. So you're all with humans tonight to do football Friday invitation. You finished ninth at tie for ninth place in Circa

4:02million seven. Is this your first cashing in Circa millions? I was twenty first two years ago. Twenty first two years ago. How much are you getting tonight? Seven thousand. Seventy thousand. Yes. And then you won outright. Well, explain how your season went. Charles Dickens was the best of times. Was the worst of times. So I sucked the entire first half of the year. And then in the four mentioned visa. The visa invitational. I was in last place. And then I went one and six like week five or six. All right. So I'm like, I don't know 12 games below 500. And I'm a joke. The internet is exploding. Everyone's coming out. Stevie is washed up. He's done so. He beat three of his friends and his mom's attic. You have 30 years ago to win a contest or two. And it's like he's completely washed up. And so you're scared and you're thinking that maybe you're not that young anymore. But show a little faith. There's magic in the night.

5:02I'm not the best. But I'm all right. You're like Michael Myers sitting up and turning. And that's all right tonight. Thunder road. So I go on the run. And I shout out Scotty Pritchard. Jim Fice guys that I didn't get to know early in my career. Just recently, both great guys. And both of them like came to me and said, Steve, you're really good at what you're doing. Keep your head up. Don't listen to what anyone else says. Just keep doing. You know, keep working hard. And everything will be all right. And then I hit the run. And so the rest of the run is what a bunch of five and those and a bunch of four and ones. Yeah. So the Westgate Super Contest. Exactly. And then I'm 17 and 28. I'm like in like the bottom 25th percent out easily. I'm sure I should be going for the booby prize. If there is one, I go 34, 10 and one to end the second. So when the second half contest. So think about that. That's like going four and one on eight weeks and breaking even one week. It's impossible.

6:02That's amazing. It's like you plug it into a binomial distribution. It's like over the rest of my lifetime. binomial distribution radio everybody. Even if I hit 55% I would never be able to go 34, 10 and one. That's insane. And so you won the Westgate second half contest outright. Right. But it's a mini contest. So I don't even count that as a contest. How much do you win for that? 50,000 plus I get a 7,500 bonus because I finished third and the last third contest also. Okay. So I placed in that 50,000 plus 7,500. Yes. Yes. So 57,5 and this one you won, how much? 70. 70. All right. 127,500. Yeah. I lost some hedges the last week. Okay. That's fine. Yeah. How many contests over the years now have you won outright? You don't want to count that one, but I'll count it for you. How many of you won? So I won the Westgate twice. Yeah. The main event. I won the Southpoint twice. I won the Leroy Money Talk. I won the Leroy College football contest one year.

7:04I've got a lot of risk. I tied for first and we chopped it. Okay. All right. And I've had some notable failures. The starter's invitational lost in the finals not once but twice. Mark Lawrence beat me in the finals one year and I lost two and unknown as a monster favorite one year. So I haven't always gotten to the finish line. But I've had a strong record if I get even late in the contest. If I'm if I'm leaving, if I'm even, I'm leaving. I'm leaving with the title. And so I did have the chip lead, if you will, in that Westgate second half contest, there's this guy, Grammys. He's like a game behind me. He goes four and one the last three weeks. I need to go 12 and three to beat him, crazy. And you did go 12 and three? I did, wow. You're like the Jaguars and the Texans. You being the Jaguars in this case, in the AFC South. So wait a minute. So, okay, clearly you are a contest maven. You distinguish this though.

8:04You're very clear to distinguish this from week to week actual betting. Explain that. 100%. This is critical. And people like, Fez, you went 34, 10 and one. Clearly you can pick lots of NFL winners. Ah, not so fast, my friend. There's a big difference between playing contest and playing against contest lines. And I do, what is that in the movie? Rounders like Ed Norton's talk. And he's like, oh, we do it all. You know, we do chip signaling. You know, we do, there's no, nobody's watching us. So we can do, we can get away with anything. And so I'm, I mean, I'm not angle shooting because the rules are the same for everyone. But like, I've got other people like, they're submitting their, like on Thursday, they'll submit one play on Thursday. And then they have to lock in their other four plays and I've made, you don't do that. And I've been a strong advocate that it's almost always, you never say never, but it's almost always incorrect to do that. And also the later you can play the better. So, but you don't want to play five minutes before the deadline. You want as perfect information as you can get.

9:05Right. But you don't want to miss a deadline. No. So like an hour before is good. And I'm, I'm adamant about this. Making a play in the contest is like making an implied bet on the game. So if you love a game and the lines three everywhere and they put three and a half on the contest line, you cannot play in the contest of my three. And I've just go bet of my three. You know, put it, put your bet in that way. Don't bet it with your contest on the line, laying the three out. Don't bet your handicap. Is what you're saying? Exactly. So, and so can it be distilled to all that? It's, it's you just, you are loyal or you are, you are beholden to getting the best of the con. So you get the best of the stale line as almost as often as you possibly can. Almost 100% of the time. I try to assess every game. Like people say, do you know what you're playing in circuit mindset? I'm no idea. It's a spreadsheet. How can I know what I know what I'm going to play without the information and what they're dealing? But I want, I try to just say, hey,

10:06at Pittsburgh plus three and a half has a 58% chance to cover. It's a great bet. Pittsburgh plus three, it's probably like 52.8% chance to cover as an example. This is, this is the, the mathematical, someone say mechanical way of doing this. Now it doesn't work every year, right? And it's gotten so much harder. Here's why. Back 20 years ago when I was winning all these contests, I was like one of the, not many people were playing the way I'm playing, right? Now with CLV closing line value, so important people know it. A whole lot more people play like I do. So obviously that makes it much harder for me to win and back like in our group text. I went ahead and texted everyone late in September. He said, hey, if any of us can get a good record this year, we're going to do great in millions because everyone who's in the top 50 is a dumbbell because none of this was working at all. And I still go back if anyone who had been, if you were in the top 100 in millions, and you had just called me up and say,

11:06Stevie, can you help me out with your picks? You would have won. Yeah, but what you mean by dumbbell is they don't apply these, this strategy, they're still betting their handicap. They're just playing their favorite games without any, pretty much willy-nilly, not paying any attention to what the spreads were. Exactly. The only time you will deviate is if you are like trailing by a few points late in the season, you'll deviate. Yes, I'm going to pull back the curtain real quickly. So the deviation doesn't work usually week 18 because the line moves tend to be deadly. So you don't want to wait to the very last week to go contrarian, you want to go contrarian, really week 16 at the very latest week 17. Steve Fesick, everybody, solid segment there. Multiple contests, winnings once again, coming back with Fesick. Numbers being faces, he sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pro's win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you. Vesick Pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff,

12:08just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vesick and Pro. Yep. Whoa. Numbers game on Fesick. These sports betting network, sharp plays dot com. There's a full effect on match transparency with records updated daily A.I. betting analysis, real time global betting info, an alerts directly from the pros scan the QR code for more. You're looking at me funny, you want to say something about that right there? Well, you know, just want to hear the sports books feared. It's hard. It's hard to get the sports books to fear you, you know, in history, Dr. Bob. This is when it was disclosed in the Wall Street Journal. What's this? The books like had no idea what was going on. I had no clue at the people are coming up. Yeah.

13:09And betting the University of Washington minus six and like, okay, limit bet. And the next guy is like, I want, I want Washington like, well, it's my six and a half now. And he's like, yeah, I want Washington, you know, limit bet. And it's like, and the books were just getting just smacked around. And they had no idea for a few weeks what the heck was going on. Yeah. That was Dr. Bob at about 2005-ish. And since then, he has had to revamp his method of release multiple times. Because then, of course, the books would subscribe, right? They would be on top of it as well. He would have to do a whole like staggered thing where he was, he was whole thing. Yeah. And I tried to bet, Dr. Bob, his college basketball. And for me, I just, I don't have the right accounts. And like, so I started, everything's going fine. I'm betting on, you know, Westgate and Circa here in Vegas. And all of a sudden, what's this? Circa is moving lightning fast. And I'm just, and I'm not getting it. And Westgate, what's this? $100 limit on all of my college basketball sites. Well, you know, the most impossible one is college football season win totals. Tanner! We get tweet speaking the book, Jason Stark is a Steelers fan.

14:11He says, the man, Dr. Bob, here we go. He's on the Steelers. ANG guests and co-hosts have a tradition of picking against Steelers. Good to hear some sanity. Um, excuse me. I don't know what you're talking about. Are you talking about Kelly? Is that what you're talking about? Was Bob on... Uh, fairway Steelers. He's on the Steelers. Yeah. Fairway Fred during upcoming NFL playoffs. Will Kyle Shanahan, screw up clock management for the umpteenth time. Over under one and a half times. Uh, and then more, more of these buckies, my god. Uh, Al Falfa, guys, buckies and Wegmans. The best gas stations and grocery stores in the USA hands down. Gotta go. Wegmans I went to. My mom kept goading me and it goes. I went. Uh, Ray in Texas. Think about your absolute favorite best binge night ever. Buckies is better. Don't believe me. Holler at your boy and I'll bring you to buckies. All right, Ray in Texas. Here's a, here's a question for you. From three Jack H3131. It's a great question. Deal. Can you ask FES. How much he factors look ahead lines. If at all. And does he look more at lines with a hook. Versus a minus three. Even, for example, in order to avoid pushes.

15:12It depends. Great question. So. Uh, if I'm behind, I need wins. So I try to avoid, you know, the threes. And I look towards, you know, playing the half point lines. You know, much more. But early in the season. But say the market line is three and a half. And I can lay minus three. Or the market line's three. And I can lay minus two and a half. If I have to choose between those two plays. I'll lay the two and a half. Knowing I need a, a, a tremendous record. In order to cash in these contests. If you hit 60%. That's, that's a misnomer. People like, I just wanted to hit three and two every week. Like, if you're nine and six after three weeks, you're in sad shape. Yeah. You can't win the quarterly anymore. And, and your expectation has dropped significantly. Despite hitting 60%. My line is, if you're not 60%. You don't even get to talk about it. Yes. That, that's my line. Right. 60% you can start talking. But at what point would I be like content? I, I actually think I think I need 64%. After three weeks to be happy. You know, it's like below like at 62%. I'm unhappy. My, I've negative equity.

16:12It's counterintuitive. See, Vesig everybody. 5631 and three tied for ninth. For $70,000. It's circa a million seven. And the Westgate second half contest. Which he wins it out. Right. 3410 and one. Good God. First place. 57 and a half. $1,000. Care to it. By the way, shout out to. A coin hop and bison sports cards for tying for the win. In circa a million seven. A half point better than Sean's dolphins. Now, this is a great point. Because like, I'm like, I'm like Mike Mattisau. Because I'm in the industry. It's fun to talk about me having a top 10 or making a final table. Like, like they would with a Mattisau great poker player. But the true stars. Let's not take away coin hop. Yeah. Was thriving. The entire year did a great job. Won the tie break. And it's amazing that Sean and bison were actually able to catch him. And tie for first potato commissioner. There's a run. There's a run. Potato commission. Throughout seven points. What a great comeback.

17:12What a great story. So potato commission was with coin hop in first place. The whole first half of the year. Faded. I believe he was slightly out of the top 10. Rallyed to finish seventh. And take home a really nice paycheck. Famous potatoes. Love it. Of the of the eight entries that finished above you. How many of them at one point or another said, Ah, I'm ahead of physics. Well, they all were ahead of. How many how many did they openly gleeful about that? Well, they didn't have to be gleeful. The people who were like two five games, two games below 500 were openly ahead of. Everyone was ahead of. And the decent invitational. I still go back to like I couldn't pick one winner. It's a miracle that like every week I was in last place. Yeah. They started cutting people. Oh, you know, Matt. We shortchange it because you also won the circuit bracket challenge. Not the bracket challenge, but the the NBA won you won as well. Pretty good. Because I can't name an NBA. Not the circle in the visa. Right. Can't name an NBA player. Did pretty good. And that would. But like Matt's like he texted me.

18:12He's like, yes, Steve. Yeah, you're still in last place. But you won the tie break. You're still alive. And you know, in the amazing thing. Like I was on fire. Like I can only imagine how I would have finished. If somehow I didn't get if Frank Karouli didn't eliminate me, you know, by a get by one game. And so I finished 12th like a few games above 500. All right, smarty pants. Ready to give us some picks for this week. Sure. All right. Let's see every one of them's going to win. Guaranteed or I'll buy you. I'll buy you a drink at Peter Lugers. See you. You're going to wear better outfits of the circuit to the Czech presentation tonight. You gonna dress up for that? Maybe I'll win my undeserved blazer. Oh, no. That I have never worn. Oh, no. The story is Greg Jones wins the survivor and I was an investor. Oh, look. You're on the, yeah, I know. And then you got a jacket. Well, the tailor came up and measured me and I'm like, this is complimentary. And when he's all done after spending eight minutes with me, getting my inseims and the like, he's like, okay, will that be a credit card? And I didn't want to look. That's right. You got roped into it.

19:12And I didn't want to look super cheap. Right. All right. Can't have that. Yes. You cheap. Never. You're on the Steelers too. Steelers plus three. Did you aggregate this from Bob? Of course, I always listen to Dr. Bob. Okay. All right. But I will go as far as to say the one thing. I try to give, I try to give a handicap. Nobody else is talking about it. Okay. You've got three teams in lovely weather cities. Houston and LA. Dome teams. All right. I know you can get wet inside an LA. Whatever. It's a dome. And they're all playing in the elements. And so if you bet against the Rams and the Chargers and the Texans, I think those would all be sides you should be looking towards it. No one ever talks about that. But I mean, I know it's not minus 20 degree windshield or anything. But it's a factor. Yeah. We brought it up. And the weather will be most a factor in Chicago. But both of those teams used to playing in those types of conditions. Warmer in Chicago today than in Las Vegas. But it won't be.

20:12Yeah. It won't be this weekend where it's going to be wind gusts and nasty. And I did play longest field goal under 49 and a half of long gone line though. Long. Oh, longest field goal under 49 and a half of the long goal. That's my go to on a windy gusty day. Obviously the balls are so much better. You know, that it's it's much more difficult. By the way, great segment on field goal kicking and G. Oh, numbers. Cutting edge. It's our it's our corkiest annual tradition. Cutting edge field goal analysis. Okay. Bears game. Oh, you mentioned Texans. Okay. Let's say with this Texan Steelers over three and a half made field goals in the Texan Steelers game. Yeah. What's Todd's always saying that what's what he says still stillers love love threes. They love kicking field goals. Fourth and two. Yeah. And that's what fair bear does for Houston. He is averaging two and a half field goals. Yeah. Yeah. Two very good kick. I got two very conservative coaches that like they like they like their three. So over three and a half field goals in the Steelers game. Oh, yes. Okay. About the Bears and the Packers.

21:12Steelers Texans obviously Monday night. Bears Packers is the night cap tomorrow night. Colston, Loveland, four plus receptions. Oh, my goodness. So this is such a good bet. I think because like he got target dude got targeted. This is the rookie tight end. 13 and 10 times. Is that good? The last two games. What's going on with the Bears wide receiver? So a Dune Zay is injured. Right. Yeah. More is all banged up. So both these dudes. If they play they're not they're not going to get many targets. So more of the same. I expect Loveland is going to be the man. And I think he only got three against the Packers last game. But like one of them like like he was in the end zone. They didn't give him the touchdown. He should have gotten four. So four plus receptions for Loveland for the Bears. All right. One more from Steve Fezick. Once again at Fezick Sports on Twitter. For wild card weekend. You have a fourth play. What's that? So we're going to go longest field goal. This is at draft Kings. We're going to take a little and Jacksonville. So Jacksonville plus 100 dev longest field goal. Ties lose. So if there are no field goals. Or if they both kick a 46 yarder.

22:13I lose. So I got one guy little that can hit from 70. He's like a field goal kicking mule. Yeah. Check out the movie on 1976. The other guy. Buffalo's kicker is Prader. He's like 50 years old. Questionable. Questionable hamstring injury. So I got a guy 40 plus bowl. I thought it was a quad either way. Yeah. I'm sorry. It is a quad. So he's got a leg injury. He's on the wrong side of 40. Any fourth and four from the 36 yard line. Josh Allen is running a quarterback draw. They're not kicking. Matthew Wright signed to the practice squad in case Prader can't go. Did you aggregate that from the numbers game field goal segment? And you think I don't listen to you. I didn't say that. And then Jaguars to score first versus the bills? Yes. So it's not a lock that Jacksonville is going to start with the ball. However, if the bills win the coin toss, which I hope they do, they should defer if Jacksonville wins the coin toss. I can't figure it out to do complicated. I don't know when they take it. Sometimes they take the ball. Sometimes they can. Okay.

23:13Think you didn't want to come with picks. There you go. You got five on them. Coming back with more physics on a numbers game in visa. These sports betting network. The numbers game on FISA. These sports betting network numbers game live from Circle Resort. Casino downhand Las Vegas, Gill Alex, Andrew Kelly is behind the glass because it's Fezic Fridays. Kelly will join us here momentarily. But Steve is in his chair. We get tweets at being the book Doctor Van No Stratt, which I'm reminded is a sign felt character, the dermatologist that Cosmo Kramer played. He said, so I had a theory that Venables was the real great coach at Clemson. Once he left, you see what happened. Feel the same about Johnson on the Bears. Now, the Campbell seemed to struggle this year without him. Twenty to one on the Bears for the Super Bowl. Thoughts worth a shot. Twenty to one on the Bears. What do you think about that? Total Fougaisie, the first nine weeks of the year, playing much better. Not a good bet, though. Mechanical Parley, pay a lot more. I would agree. Brosek 1870.

24:13Is Fezick a Stephen? If so, is it a V or a pH? Could explain a lot, especially on Twitter. That's Brosek 1870, University of Illinois. Coco Pepples, he says the V Stephen or Steve. Either way, Jason McKinney. If Mike McDonald doesn't win coach of the year, I keep thinking I'm going to hear Kelly quote office space and say, Mike McDonald was a good name until that no that no talent A clown came along. Van Kino, Michael Bolton. That's the greatest that's one of the movies I had never heard of it. I happened to turn to whatever movie channel was at the time in the opening credits. You know, when he was in line in his car with the hip hop on and they rolled up. I was I couldn't look away. If you've never seen the movie, one of the great the greatest scenes of all time is when he's meeting with the consultants that are canning 10% of the workforce. And he says, well, what do you do? And he's like, well, I have someone put my jacket down like I've arrived. But I don't actually get there until a good half hour after the work day starts.

25:14And over the course of a week, actual work. Maybe I do about 45 minutes. Tell us more. That's got to be actually van Kino. My family and friends enter millions and survivors. A group and have a contest within the group. Had my son entered his own entry in circa. He would have finished second outright for the booby. I know it's if I know it's ifs and buts. But still great contest. See you next week. And then this one I want to address. And this is a good one to throw at you. A bullet godfrey. It's our buddy Carl Sack. Gory says, hey, Gil, ask Fez if the game has passed Carl Sack by. Or does he expect a turnaround by the guru? What he's referring to is that Carl Sack, who's maybe the greatest NBA better I've ever witnessed in my life, is really having a tough go early in the season. Your thoughts on it variants more than likely. Complete variants. The best example I can give is like I had five years of my service was plus 250 units. All right. And then last year at one point, I'm down 120 units. I've finished up. No one ever mentioned that. Down 90. And yet all of a sudden somehow, Fezick didn't have dementia.

26:14He didn't have Alzheimer's when he was 60. But when he hit 62, then he's completely washed up and looked no further than the results. So go read. Doesn't have to be very interesting. You actually could fall off the cliff. But I doubt it. In Carl's case, and he'll bounce back. Read Don Schlesinger's Black Jack attack. He talks about a Black Jack team. Players ABC and D are given strict guidelines. An exactly hard, hard count. What to bet? What games to play? All right. At the end of the year, player A is up like 300,000. But player D is down 150,000. And player C is like dead even. And the problem was player C was way too conservative. Didn't get the money out like he was supposed to. Player D was, you know, playing very poorly, drinking the night before. Player A, you know, played spot on. And that's why he was the very best. And then at the end of the chapter, Schlesinger says, just kidding. It's a complete computer simulation. They all played perfectly. That's just very. That's just very. Great, great analogy right there. Okay. Let us discuss or let you discuss here. The myth that you shouldn't bet more on playoff games

27:15versus and the Super Bowl versus the regular season. That's what drives me crazy. Right. People are like, you shouldn't bet more on a Chicago Green Bay playoff game. Then you should if they were just playing in the Sunday morning, normal early start time window. Aw, contraire. You should be betting way more money on these games for several reasons. One, with the standalone game concept, you're not laying minus 110. Now you're not even laying minus 105. Inevitably, there'll be a place like the MGM that'll deal it like minus 104. Or the South Point will deal with minus 105. And the betting exchanges, the market will have so much liquidity just on the side and total. You'll be able to lay like minus 101 in each direction. If you have an opinion, not to mention the second factor, the prop menu will be so. That's where I actually expanded. You'll have no problem being able to bet on field goal kickers and length of field goals and things like that. Stuff that really is not, especially in Vegas,

28:15not nearly as widely available. So famously, the Super Bowl. Super Bowl is the greatest example. Your Rufus P body bets $2 million on every Super Bowl, right? Do you think Rufus is betting $2 million on a Miami New England game on October, you know, morning? And Rufus is like, one of the best bettors in the world. So probably, you know, you should be looking to bet more on these biggest standalone games. We had Andy Molitor on earlier in the week. Our buddy, half of the deep dive podcast, what she does with Drew Densick. And he was up there in millions as well. And he was, he flew to Vegas doing his hedging stuff. You had a reaction to that. Yeah, which I thought was very Physician. So great job by Drew and Andrew. Fantastic run. And so I'm very knowledgeable, guys. But just I think this is a lesson for all of us to learn. You know why you get by with the help of your friends. And so this is an example where I don't know. You don't know Andy very well, but like like like Drew,

29:15I'm sure if he just text you, hey, Gil, I want a bet. I want to, you know, get a $10,000 hedge bet on Baltimore. Can you help me out? You know, Andy's flying out, but he's distracted. He doesn't have the outs and the like, we've all done it many times for our friends. Easy peasy like like like like like, like if I was like, I'm in Antarctica. I'm about to lose cell phone coverage. It's like, Bill, help me out. Can you get me 10 dimes on Baltimore best number? You can get me bang bingo bongo and just having that network of people. Heck, I'm sure if I could send it to Will Hill, he'd take care of me. It's like having people that could just, you know, be who have multiple accounts and contacts. So if they can't help you, they got someone who can help you. You're 100% right about this. I do wonder if this is a way too close to the sun thing, though, in terms of this is so normal for us, right? Being immersed in this, but like most people, you would, you would agree, just don't have that kind of, you know, direct line to people. 100% so like, by example,

30:16so Jeff Benson just a great job, just said like with survivors, he's like, oh, we just had a $750,000 hedge bet come in on Green Bay against Minnesota in the money line plus $3.50 and I'm thinking to myself, plus $350, I've given plus $400. You know, I like, like, and they bet like plus 12 and a half when they could have had 13 and a half and it's just, but you know what, they're not used to being in that position. I have a ticket broker that I help out. And like sometimes he says, Steve, if there's a game six or a game seven, I'm going to make $50,000 extra dollars. I'm going to fly out to Vegas and hedge, you know, this, and I'm like, I'll take care of you, and I'll work together. So try to like expand your network as the lesson for all of us to help you. Few more things. Let's get to the first two quick because I want to save the last ones for the most time here. The age old advice you give, don't do too many sports in handicapping? Yeah, so pick a couple college basketball conferences or pick the NBA. Don't try to follow all these college basketball teams and NBA. Hey, you know, Alan Boston's not retiring on a beach right now

31:16and he's like one of the greatest college basketball batters ever. Well, he's fallen three under 65 teams. I mean, I would imagine if he just picked like four conferences, you know, I'm sure his winning percentage would have gone up. Yes. Specialized. Specialized. Whether it's sport by sport or within a sport. Exactly. And then you, you haven't brought this up in a long time but your, your favorite thing is tip your room attendance, as you call them. Oh, the hardest working people that are invisible, like like people like, oh my big man on this pretty waitress and I'll give her a 20. And then they stay in a room and they're cleaning up their, you know, what? Yeah. And they leave and they don't even leave like a $5 bill. Come on, tip your room attendance. Room attended, by the way, Stevie goes with very nice. It's documented in the book, super casino. They say the locks are opened up. They're not made to the room attendance. Okay. Here's the final one. And this is the most excited about because you tip me off on this before. You says you haven't, you have an NFL betting strategy. I believe you said strategy that will make everyone become a much, much better gambler.

32:18And you said you would reveal it on the show today. Spot on, this is a losing strategy, but you're just going to make you so much better at what you do near your skeptical. They what? It's a little late this week. So starting next week, I want you to bet every NFL side in total, just 10 bucks. All right. But you got to bet both sides, equal amounts. All right. So think about this. You have a San Francisco Eagle game. All of a sudden, you're like, you're going to become a Nioco on the line moves. You're going to be falling the so closely and inevitably, you're going to pick up on, oh, I should get me like Kelly laid the three. Early in the betting cycle with Philly or lay three and a half reduced. And then we're going to come back and we might get a plus six right at post. We're going to get the plus three and a half on Pittsburgh. We're going to get the Houston minus two and a half at close. You're like, you're going to be constantly following the marketplace and following the numbers because you know the only possible chance you have of winning is to be maniacal and follow it 24 seven. So you'll become so good at predicting line moves when you have to bet both sides versus

33:21conversely, you could middle yourself. The opposite, right? The opposite of this would be to play the extreme poor, poor way. Well, the easy way is to say it's probably not going to matter with the number. And I'll just smoke dope all week and I'll just wander in and bet Pittsburgh plus three minus one 18 right before the games kick off. I like that's good. That's good advice right there. Because you will become to use your words, maniacal about line moves and then maybe get better at predicting them. Yes, that's a you all win, but you'll get so much better. And you'll pick up on stuff like, oh, they always bet buffalo. They love buffalo. There's certain teams, you know, the marketplace, the money just keeps coming in on. Did you used to do this back in the day? Is this how you wrote? I always I would say the number one thing that I invented more than anyone else was getting the very best of number like I'm the one exception of the rule. I won the first year. I started seriously sports better. There was no learning curve because I knew get get great numbers and you win. Parley cards, stale numbers, steep, fesick, everybody. Fesick Friday's on a numbers game.

34:31A numbers game on Fesit. These sports betting network football meets flavor with Veson and Omaha stakes. The official sponsor of tailgating and right now when you spend $129 you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings close 50% off site wide. At OmahaStakes.com slash VS I end. Don't wait. Spend $129 get two pounds of wings and save 50% of site wide on stakes and more at OmahaStakes.com slash VS I end. That's OmahaStakes.com slash VS in. Minimum purchase required C site for details. I thought crack was going to jump through the screen and eat those wings yesterday. It looked delicious and once again grilled wings over fried every time. You got a lot of sport on that take. I did. Yes. Now what were you just telling me off air? Well, I got that we have a special video for you. Yes. Well, you always say I'm so much more than a producer. That's correct. So I decided to boot out Larry and Darnell out of the director chair and director one of the Fesick segments. Oh, no. So I think there I think there's some video of it. Are we ready to go, fellas? There it is. Stand on standby. Look at the tradition of feeding guests.

35:32Stand by. Just yelling out nonsense. You have no idea what you're saying. You're a guilt tight shot up. What's the problem? See, guilt tight shots up. Graphic number 237 on standby. We're going to live to shot up. Look at you live. Look at the visa control room. Kelly, right? Kelly, Bidlett does it all. I have no idea if he's actually doing anything right there. I changed the cameras. I actually changed the cameras. They allowed me to do that. You look like you know what you're doing at all. I mean, I've been around enough professional directors like Larry Miren, Darnell Glenn back there. What did Larry and what did Larry do while you were doing that? Well, Larry was out of the room. When he re-entered the room, I think he was terrified of whatever was going on. Yeah, and then I got a big bravo because he was dying laughing about me and him or what were old dudes in the business, right? So he was dying laughing about how I kept using old TV terms that like nobody we definitely don't use around here. At least, I don't know if anybody uses a period anymore. Period. I said, I don't know any of this. The maze that we stayed on air.

36:32Give Kelly a round of applause everybody. Just me. No, I'll see you. Lance Schaefer, a little listener on listener conversation. He goes, I'm a diehardy bears fan, responding to the other guy with a 20-to-1 shot on the bear. Says, but they need a dominant pass Russia an additional D-line help to be a true contender to win at all. 20-to-1 is throwing money away. He says, all right. This smut killer said, I was on the fence about smoking dope all week, but based on physics advice, I've jumped the shark. What was physics advice? Oh, what was it that, how did that come up again? Oh, I was like, oh, we're talking about, oh, doing the exercise of playing both sides of the line. Oh, okay. I think that's what I was about for a long time. Okay, here are the bets made this week or at least today and this week, depending on who we're talking about. Here are mine. I was on Miami last night. That's the old winner to change. Miami minus two and a half is what I bought it down two versus old missing. Somehow Miami dominates the box score and barely gets home.

37:34Tonight, I bet Indiana at the worst of it earlier in the week. I also bet I'm again at minus three. So minus four and minus three extra juice on the Hoosiers tonight versus Oregon and college football. Pros, man, I'm betting a lot. Bears minus one versus the Packers. More of just a hunch. I just feel like the Bears Magic carpet ride continues for one more week in that weather. Monunguy, big game for the Bears. I'm on the Jags versus the Bills. That was the most surprising line on Monday morning. Immediately bet the Jaguars minus one. Oh, wait, that's where it is right now. Niners plus three and a half. I got the worst of that at the Eagles and the one that I'm looking forward to the most. Chargers plus three and a half of the Patriots and sprinkle me back the Chargers plus one 61 at the Patriots as well in a national football league. Plus, I have the Hoosiers tend to one to win at all. Do not forget. Yes, you do. Yes, sir. All right, for me, nothing tonight. It was a good NBA stretch this week, man. It was really good until last night. For you, Maverick's lost. That sucked. But it was a good five and no on the show this week.

38:34They're a frustrating team, aren't they, Maverick? Dude, really frustrating. I've stayed away from them. We had Drew and a couple guys. What on Tuesday? The Rebendom and Sacramento. I stayed away. I'm like, I don't know. And they didn't cover and I got got pulled in by that spot. That old spot last night against the Jazz. Didn't work out. All right, NFL for me this week, Packers, Jags and a teaser and Bears, Jags and a teaser. I expect the Packers Bears game to be close. So hopefully those both get home. And the Jazz take care of business. Be price sensitive on the teasers. When we talk about teasers, a lot of us have outs that have minus 120. Still, I even have one out that's still minus one 10 on me. That's awesome. Yeah. But don't go crazy. If you're betting at a shop that's charging way more than this. Yeah, I got a text from Lufanacaro. But he saw these on the site and he was like, where are you getting 125s? So Caesars in town is the only one they even 125 these days here in Vegas. Like you said, well, I got another out. I get 120, but he doesn't have the lines up as quick. So Caesars, where I'm jumping to you

39:35quickly with the teasers on opens. Jags money line, even money. Eagles laid three. All of these were on open. 115 on the Eagles there. Jalen Hertz. They brought this up earlier. Did just bet this this morning. Hertz over his rushing yards of 31 and a half. And Texans laid three with them on Monday night. I guess. Guess I'm up against some of the best around on that one. You know, Oppo Bob. Oppo Rufus Oppo Bob. Rufus is on Steelers too. Oh, yeah, they said that's right. They both said the same thing. They made Pittsburgh one point foam favorite. That's right. Wes Reynolds following in the end around the country. He's got the Hoosiers on the money line tonight for Zorgen. Try to get his Hoosiers to the national championship game. Chargers plus three and a half of the Patriots. Wes and I are some potty going that one. And he's on the under in the Rams Panthers game under 46 and a half. The one that kicks it all off in wild car weekend tomorrow morning. And that's tomorrow afternoon. I shouldn't say morning. First the two Zach Cohen three sports. Mark Marta Kostiak plus 112 versus Jesse Pagula.

40:37Kostiak coming off wins against both Anissa Mova and Drava. She's on fire early in the season. Take it on Jesse Pagula. College football. He's on Indiana laying the points tonight. He's right between me with a minus three and a half versus Zorgen. And then the NBA tonight he's on the sixers money line versus the magic. And the Blazers Denny Avdia and the Blazers plus seven and a half versus the Rockets. That's from Zach. Dr. Bob, as we mentioned, Steelers plus three versus the Texans. That was his play of the week. Even impassioned diet tribe about that one. And then Fezick moment to go. Stevie coasted a leveling four plus receptions in the Bears game. Jags to score first versus the Bills. Also in the Jags game. Jags kick the longest field goal. Even money versus the Bills. That's a good bad man. Cam little versus the Prater right combo. Whoever's whoever's going to kick for the Bills. He's on the Steelers plus three versus the Texans. His aggregation play of the of the week. And then he's on the Texans Steelers over three and a half made field goals. Talking about fair bearing and Boswell in that one. I saw a Prater probable earlier.

41:38But like I don't know. I don't know if that means the same thing with kickers as it does. Like alignment, you know what I mean? It's sort of a you can or you can't. Right, right. Exactly. There you go. All the bets on today's show and throughout the week. Right here on the numbers game. Can we close out by? Can I can I ask you a? You know, we've been talking betting all week as we always do. Can I ask you a sports talk radio question for wild coaching? Which I don't even know how to phrase it. If I should say team or or coach or player. I'll leave that open ended. Who's got the most to lose this weekend? Let me just give you an example. Sean McDermott's probably just a good move to that. I was going to the bills lose. The Sean McDermott have the most to lose as a person as a coach. Yeah, I think unfortunately, I think it's unfortunate because I don't think it's very fair. I think Josh Allen will catch a lot of criticism if he loses that game. But in the in the Lamar Jackson category of never getting to the Promised Land. We're going to try and look. I would have said probably the same thing two months ago, right?

42:40If you told me the playoffs were starting, the bills were in it. And there was no chiefs, Bengals, or Ravens. You don't have them at home's barriers. Yeah, Josh Allen, you don't have an excuse. Unfortunately, I think he has an excuse. Like his foot, I think his foot's messed up. I think it's defense sucks. And I think you're running into the Jaguars in a real, real bad time. But guess what? It's not like Josh Allen's going to lose this job. He might catch a lot of heat for it on shows like this, but he's not losing his job. Sean McDermott could. Yeah, Sean McDermott could. The outcome of that game no matter what it is, is going to result in either comment. It's going to be like bills can never get to the can never get to the big one. Or the Jags up. There they are. There's the Jags. I'll give you two others. Okay. That I think I think this one would be next. Eagles lose. Jalen Hertz. Jalen Hertz has a bad game in the Eagles loss. Oh, man, does that situation get a lot worse from some of the stuff we saw through that throughout the season? Meaning what? That they will say what about it? No, there's a lot of questions. But what was going on in locker rooms, conversations, and there were reports about there being division in the locker room

43:40and kind of everybody up against hurts and everything. So it's, I don't know. It's amazing. It's amazing though, because you're only one year away from winning it all. It's wild. It's why that's how quick things change in professional sports, right? And then, you know, I'll be the guy who keeps saying it. Maybe I'll be the only guy. I know what's coming. Justin Herbert, you're going to lose another playoff game. You're going to do anything ever. Oh, man. Because I know I'm going to see on ESPN for hours over the off season about Dak Prescott. And what can you do with these cowboys? Justin Herbert always escapes all the criticism. I remember rookie quarterbacks, or not rookie quarterbacks. But first time, playoff quarterbacks against guys who have played in the playoffs, seven, 20 and one against the spread. So that applies to Drake May. That applies to Caleb Williams in these matches for what it's worth. Again, we're not really a trend show, but just throw that out the end. Because I do think that's also a thing, right? Yeah. If Caleb Williams loses, if Drake is particularly of Drake May and the Patriots lose, immediately,

44:41it's going to be people are going to view schedules, right? Sacredly moving forward. Like, oh, turns out they really do mean something. Once you actually get popped in the mouth by somebody. Anyway, just an interesting, uh, we're going to ask the same question next week about the Broncos and the Seahawks and Sam Darnell and all that stuff. But I think you're right. Buffalo and Sean McDermott's top of that answer. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. For the neck. We've done all we can do. Kelly Binlin doing it all day. Multidimensional. Prop points with John Hansen's next. Enjoy from Vs and V. Sports betting hour.