A Numbers Game | January 9, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story to always do. Swandals, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill Abixander, Convison. Hour number two of a numbers game and feast in these sports betting network Vison.com game plus iHard radio, YouTube TV and of course, Series XM Channel. 158 radios, Gill Abixander. That's television's Kelly Biddle and everybody. Sup, he brings the pretty every day to the show. Still to come, Zach Cohen will join us this hour. As will Dr. Bob with his play of the week. We haven't seen Bob in a couple of weeks, have we? It was the off last week and the week before. I feel that way. Yeah. And then Steve Fezick, Fezick Fridays, a little later on the show, everything that's on Fezick's mind as he, I guess he's coming to Circa for us and then leaving and coming back to Circa tonight to pick up his check. Yeah. For Circa Millions, he finished ninth, T9. I think I made it all the way through his novella text message this morning. Well, he didn't only finish tied for ninth in Circa. He ended up winning the Westgate second half of the season contest.

1:02Oh, Stevie. So you know what we got to talk about with him? We got to talk about the difference between contest and real life betting. Yeah. Because we talked about this with other guys too. And this is no. This is not a, when I say that people immediately, something in the brain goes to, oh, it's your contest good. That means you, you're not quite as, no, it's just a great discipline you have. Yeah. The talent you have for knowing contest play that doesn't necessarily translate could, by the way, doesn't necessarily translate to being successful betting contest aside. Yeah. We've had some guys like that. We've had some contest winners in the past. I won't name names. That openly admit that. But. Oh, I mean, we have talked to Stevie. I mean, I think maybe we're talking about the same guy. How many contests? How many contests are he won? Seven of them now? He's looking through what he, what he sent us. I don't think he'll care if I should. I mean, this is, he's getting about to collect checks for over six figures. There you go. Like, yes. Then you wonder, then you wonder why the wife just lets him go willy nilly about that.

2:03Everybody, everybody, everybody in Twitter can rip on Steve. All you want. Like, yeah, he's about to collect checks. Rift away. Six figures. That's right. Um, good on you, physics. I will continue to rip you for your, the, the ridiculous Starbucks things. And, you know, stuff like that. Yeah. Brian Schaefer, 31. Gillier, a little light. Eagles are now five and a half point fair. She has five, five and a half. You're right. Which brings us right back into what we were talking about earlier. Teams you trust to advance further. And we're talking about the Niners and the Bears. And if, so let's say the nine, if the Niners beat the Eagles and the Bears beat the Packers. The matchups in the NFC next week will be, whoop, whoop, whoop, whoop. Niners at Seattle. Rams at Bears. That's how it would shake out. In which case, I would say in the Niners versus Bears thing, advantage Niners. But they still have to get by the Eagles. Okay. Hold on. I'm going to circle back to that. I want to circle back to that because I want to do the last one here. Who do you trust to advance further? And this is the NFC heavyweights.

3:04Seahawks or Rams. Rams. Okay. As I think most would say, I think most would say that too. And despite, despite the game being at Seattle. I'm at that point too. Both have buys this week. Yeah, I see what you're doing. Can I give you look ahead lines? You want to save that. I know, I know you look at, I know you look at openers this time here. Yeah. I mean, I know you can say them. Okay. Those matchups are up at draft games, right? So Seahawks hosting the Niners would be five and a half right now. Obviously, this will change over the weekend. I would guess lower than that. And then the Rams will be four and a half point road favorites in Chicago. I would guess maybe even take higher than that. I would guess five and a half six on the Rams. Man, I think I would too. I don't know if I'd go full. And I would have guessed less on the Niners. Seahawks one. You think you think sea ox be a lighter favor than that? That's what I would have guessed. Yeah. Yeah. Um, anyway, that's pretty. So this is the last one. Yeah, I trust the Rams.

4:04One of the Seahawks. But the interesting one is the Niners bears one because I inherit. Internsically, I trust Brock pretty over Caleb Williams. I trust the Niners. I trust the Niners over the bears as two neutral football teams. But the way the question is, word is to advance further. I like the bear's chances against the Packers. Obviously a little more than I do the Niners against the, or even though I'm bullish on the Niners, a little more than I do the Niners on the Eagles against the Eagles. But if they were both to advance, then that advantage sways to the Niners side to me. Yeah. Yeah. Chad Lasso. Is it too crazy to say I think bears could go all the way and Caleb and Ben Johnson are the next my homes and Andy Reed? I think it's undeniable that Caleb has an insane ceiling. I don't know. I'm a lion's fan. I'm terrified. Wow. Well, insane is kind of. Is it too crazy? That's it. I don't know. I'm going to use the word crazy, but it's a little. It's a little bullish. I think Ben Johnson has an insane ceiling. I don't know how good of a coach that guy could be one day.

5:07I think he's already a good coach. Caleb can just. Real in the. The, the, the, what's this? The whirling dervish. The freestyling. Yeah. Like, I mean, I get it. You're athletic. You make some of those and they're great plays. But it's like generally speaking. You know, it's just the like the details that last play against the, the Packers, the first time they play with Keisha on Nixon, pick the ball off in the end zone, just like off your back foot. Right. It's not throwing it short when he probably could have gotten the touch down there. And then he comes out with a great. Listen, it's a huge gigandas improvement over last year. Gigandas. Gigandas. All right. Shall we do these one by one? A little whip around in the NFL? Yeah. For sure. All right. Starting with the Panthers and the Rams. Let's do these chronologically again. After the college semi-final tonight between Indiana and Oregon. It's a double header in the NFL tomorrow. A triple header on Sunday and a one game on Monday. And then next week.

6:08Double header Saturday in the NFL, double header Sunday and then Monday night. The national championship. The nanny for college football. So these are the last two great weekends. So Rams at Panthers. Rams are ten point favorites at the Panthers. Panthers beat the Rams. Remember that. Panthers beat the Rams. There were two picks though in that game. One when L.A. had a. Gold Go situation. And Stafford threw a pick in the end zone. And then the other was a pick six from Mike Jackson. So there was that. 30 to 27 Panthers. And the Panthers remember that last touchdown also was on a fourth and two. Like 40 some yards to Teterola Macmillan from Bryce. So there's a lot. Obviously they went the Panthers way that perhaps isn't the most sustainable. Have you heard one human being say that they think the Panthers can win this game outright? No. I haven't either. No, I'm always smiling because I don't know how many times. Andy first set it on the show on Monday. And like there are multiple sharp NFL handicapers that I've basically heard say the same thing that I could not get to 10 on this game.

7:09It can't either. But there's no way I'm taking the points of the Panthers. I can't either. It's well. I feel exactly that way. Real quick. You're going to have Devonte Adams back. It sounds like he was pretty much ready to go last week, but they wanted to hold him out for one more one more week. I think the big one. Quentin Lake back with this defense now. Like I don't think we thought of him as a big time safety earlier on earlier on in the season. But like when this defense was playing it at their best, he was a part of that coming back. Man, this is the best offense in the NFL go versus a bottom 10 defense. Like yes, we saw this play out just a few weeks ago. I thought my Matthew Stafford MVP ticket was done after that game, right? I really thought that was that was the pivot point and it wasn't going to have a chance after that. This is tough, especially the Rams offensively, right? I don't know that I'm running to bed in over 28 and a half on a team total either, but how are the Rams not scoring in this game? I have nothing in it. If anything, I'd be looking at something like that.

8:10Cut to a shot of us late the third quarter. Like how are the Panthers in this game? Yeah. You can still win it. Panthers. They are. They really do flimax handicapers. I mean, I did say I said a month ago, right? I can't. And I'm going to stand by this. Even if the Panthers somehow beat the Rams, I am not I'm not betting a game that the Panthers are involved in anymore. I'm so wrong every time. Yeah. Second game on Saturday after the Rams and Panthers is the Bears and the Packers. The Packers now have settled in. I say that cautiously. Yep. As a one and a half point road favorite totals 44 and a half. What's the weather looking like? First thing you got to check for this one. The weather in Chicago. Yeah, it was bad when we were looking to the other Saturday night. Well, right now looking like. Let's see Saturday night. AM snow. But this isn't in the AM. This is in the PM. Later in the day. What are you saying? See my internet say forever. Yeah, real quick while you look at up a go for injuries real quick, both these teams coming in fairly healthy bills.

9:14Bills are bills. The Bears will have all their kind of receivers back. I've been kind of in and out of the lineup here recently. Roman Dunesay will be good to go. Colin Gordon. Be back at defensive backfield. Packers also coming in. Relt pretty healthy too. I mean, obviously they lost Tucker craft. I are earlier in the season. But we haven't seen many games where they've had Christian Watson, Jacob's, Dobbs, Reed all out there and ready to go. So I think that's a big time for the Packers that they're going to have. Jordan loves going to have all those guys available for him to use. Just a couple more of my notes here. But bears. Well, I mean, it's crazy how many teams we're talking about this week that are like good offense terrible defense, right? Like the Bears defense is awful. They've just been living off turnovers all year long. Plus. Plus 22. Which it which a like we got a tweet the tweet we got earlier, right? Like hey, if they if they keep having a plus one turnover differential in every game they play, this team's probably going to do pretty well. So see how that turns out. Plus 22 and six wins from behind in the last two minutes of games.

10:17That's crazy. I think we're the bears biggest shot in this game. You know, it is the Packers rush defense is very mid like it's it's it's bottom third in the league. And this bears rush offense has turned into one of the best in the game. Well, none guy is great. Yeah. Here's the latest weather from three. This is from three hours ago. This is the most recent. I can find temperatures due to plunge to around 20 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff. Snow is forecast of all steadily throughout the day. But as I said earlier with Flurries expected. Uh, taper off to Flurries during the game itself. But there is unlikely to be a large accumulation of snow falling over the stadium. Weather weather models have the worst of the weather to the north of Chicago. But wins are expected to peak. And here's the rub around 30 miles per hour. Yeah. Making it a difficult night for passers and kickers. Oh boy. Well, can we also say this? Can we enjoy these times in our lives where we always taken outdoor football for granted? I know Kelly's an indoor football guy.

11:18I can't. He's not part of this conversation. It's his worst take ever. But for those of us, I think they're for the rest of the world. 10 years from now, 15 years from now, we may be. We may look back on this weekend with Valencia. Remember when all six games were outdoors in the elements. All right. You can come back now. I'd like to know truly who the better team has played on a neutral set. What do you mean, in terms of what the line would be? I'm just like, you know, indoors, fair conditions. Not win. One win. Gus is going to affect the other worst take ever coming back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pro's win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Veece and Pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit. With Veece and Pro.

12:23A numbers game on Veece and these sports betting network back on the numbers game. Doing the old wild car around whip around. Last thing about the bears and the Packers. That's a better title than I put on it. Wild car around. Yeah. Wild car around whip around. Who does that 30 mile per hour wins? Who does that home more Packers or bears? Or can you not even say? Man, I definitely wouldn't have said this at the beginning of the season. But just going through those rushing numbers that I went through. It feels like the bear helps the bears more. Yeah. Feels like the bears. Those are the two on Saturday. Sunday morning triple header. Buffalo and the Jaguars. This is a pick them. This is settled in as a pick them. Finally, the launch is like, okay, we. We can't decide the market. Pick them. I got the Jags again Monday morning. I bet the Jags. In this one, I bet the bears by the way. The previous game on Monday morning as well. I bet the Jags here.

13:24Couldn't believe that the bills were a slight favor. Thought the Jags would be a slight favorite. I do feel like this is. I think I speak for many. I'm not certainly not alone in this position. A lot of people thought this was sort of a disrespectful line to the Jags andville Jaguars. Who are the winners of eight straight to close the season. Josh Allen versus the Jags. I'm extremely uncomfortable with our Jags positions. Because all I've heard is Jags love this week. I don't know. It feels right though, man. This team is. Bill's one of the best Russian teams in the NFL. He got a great offensive line. He got Josh Allen. He got James Cook. Jags are left and against the run. This team doesn't really have many holes right now. The defense is playing well. The offense has been awesome. Ever since Jacobi Myers got there. We've got this downfield passing thread now that just didn't exist before. Man, there's just not many holes in this Jags andville team. Buffalo has got to go on the road. I do not. I have no idea how injured Josh Allen is. I mean, he's that foot has been.

14:24That's what Drew brought up on the Megapod yesterday. He's on the Jaguars too. It's like, you don't just get a. Was it Drew said this? I don't forget. I thought it was. You don't just get a foot X-ray just for giggles. And then it was back to back weeks he had to do it. Yeah. So after both games. Look, I think Josh Allen is one of the toughest players in football. Everybody knows how I loved to feel about Josh Allen. I'm in a tough spot with this one, Gil. I'm all over the Jags. Teased him up. Teased him up with the Bears and the Packers. And then played the money line as well. But the, you know, I love Josh Allen. I'm catching a lot of heat on Twitter this week. I don't know where all these people were at when I was backing up. My Josh Allen takes over the Mr. Josh Allen. I'm Mr. Josh Allen. Now, I don't have any faith in this game. And the Buffalo fans are not happy with me. What is the Buffalo Bills fans are very sensitive? What is the fan base that is the most sensitive either? Well, let's just take NFL. It might be Buffalo. They do not. If you say anything negative about their team, they lose their mind. And I don't know the, uh, the drink base snap reaction. The drink. We got at the beginning of the season was a little interesting.

15:24Yeah. Sure was. Now, if anything, they were proven more right than us. But like you, you, you having negative takes on Drake May early of the year. You brought everybody out of Boston to come to eat at you. Yeah. It wasn't so much negative as it was like slow down. You're right. They're not playing anybody. Um, Eagles at the Niners. The Eagles know a five and a half point favorite as they just keep taking money. Like everybody knows the final score on this. This was the game. The question on the Megapod, uh, which game do you want no part of on the side? You get to bet five of these on the side, but you get a six, uh, pass on the sixth. This was the game. Everybody picked Niners Eagles. Though I believe interesting. Yeah. Though I believe Will had a play on the total. But I am on the Eagles. I bet they might open though when it was three. One fifteen. We've moved all the way out to five and a half now. I get it. I think this is the. Is this the game most affected by injury news this week? Probably like Trent Williams and Ricky Pierce all being truly questionable, right? Like that's a big deal because Niners.

16:24Yeah, because it was kind of assumed when they didn't play last week. The reports were. They were so close to playing. They just, you know, they wanted to give him another. We just wanted to get another week. So it's not really going to be a big deal for next week. It's kind of the impression. Um, but yeah, they did get good news on Trent Williams injury front though. But de winters key on white. They were not at practice either. And if you just look at an injury report, you're going to see a lot of Eagles that are on on theirs too. But it sounds like they're all pretty much good to go including having Lane Johnson back, which is huge. Ricky Pierce all was seen jogging on the sideline. There's that. Um, you know, who else was jogging on the sideline? Not even doing jogging, but sprinting on the sideline. Fred Warner. Yeah, the Niners win. He has a chance to play next week. Big if. But just he's out there saying now. He's on the horizon. I thought it was going to be an FC. Yeah, that's what they kept saying forever. They brought it up to the NFC division around now. Fast name.

17:24I would just dig into more of this Niners team to me. And like you're talking about a team. And I'm looking at pro football focus stats here. Team that finished second rated offense in the NFL finish the season. 28 rated defense. Yeah. And like they. I fit. I've had my a lot of criticism over this Eagles team this year. I think the defense is very good and solid and consistent though. Yep. And if there is the. You you've talked about flipping the switch, right? Flipping the switch with this Eagles offense. It at home against a weak defense. This might be exactly what they need to get going. What's my man's name that was the Eagles fan that was talking about this the other day that could leave the studio. Jamry Justin Emory just fine producer here. Justin had a great point though. I thought also about about hurts, which is. Oh, I bet that you really do feel like. And he has maybe triggers a prop that for you. You really do feel like Jalen hurts. By design, right? Deliberately didn't run. Any chance he any you know 50 50 thought he was like I'm just throwing the ball. I'm not going to run until I would imagine now.

18:25Where he will be more willing to use his leg. Yeah. I think that was. That was brought up multiple times throughout the regular season. We've heard that in years past, right? With my homes. Josh Allen. March act. Hey, we're going to save their legs for the play. But like Josh Allen never sticks to that. No, he never did. And all three of those guys. Sorry. Are in it. I'm still on a different level to me than a Jalen hurts. Right. So I think the criticism was fair. But okay. Now is the time. Now is the time to throw out any restrictions that you might have had. I did bet actually this morning over 31 and a half rushing guards for Jalen. We'll see. That's again, that's the game on the side. I want no part of because you could tell me the Eagles blow them out. You could also tell me the Niners win. I would not be surprised. Chargers at Patriots. The game I'm most looking forward to. Just in terms of the matchup itself. The bets I have on the Chargers plus three and a half on the Chargers sprinkled on the money line. At plus 161. Patriots. Easiest schedule per DVOA. Third easiest since 1978. Not just this year. Third easiest schedule since 1978.

19:27Patriots per the cleave TA snap chart. Have faced 61% of opposing snaps against backup quarterbacks or quarterbacks ranked 30th in EPA or lower. The most in the NFL this year. Just giving you facts. Now, on the other hand, Kelly, you were telling me you had some sharp betters. I think the Patriots are going to blow the charges off the field. Yeah. That was that at all. At all times. Give me this much. I've been consistent about these about this. You have. Yeah. You know, you're going to bet everything in your pocket that I was going to take the Chargers off the board. Yeah. Eight dollars. He was going to bet you. Eight. I saw this was over three. Yeah. It will be it on that one. This is the one. This is the one I want nothing to do with. You know, I really, I don't, I don't know what we're going to see on this Patriots team. We're talking about health earlier. I think this is one of the factors that is in the Patriots favor, right? They are healthy. The Chargers still have the offensive line banged up issues. How much does that come into play?

20:27You know, if this needs to turn into, you know, herb throw in the ball everywhere. Are they going to be able to move the balls successfully? I don't know. I really don't know this. This is the one I'm staying away from. Side and total. Honestly, total. I don't know what to make of either. Well, I don't want to. I think they're pretty correlated. I actually think of it. It's probably if it's Chargers, it's probably the younger and if it's Patriots, it's probably the older agree with that Monday night. I've become more fascinated by this Monday night game as the week has gone on. Texans at the Steelers. Now, the Steelers amazing win. Obviously, a missed Tyler loop feel goal to win it for the Steelers the other night. To win the AFC North at Acresure. They'll be at Acresure for this one where the Texans are three point road favorites. But the whole thing with that game again was the Ravens could not generate any pass rush on Aaron Rogers. And when you don't generate any pass rush on Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers becomes wait for it. Aaron Rogers. Yeah. But if you do generate pass rush on him. Well, he's 42 years old and that age starts to show.

21:28Guess which team in the NFL would you say is the best at generating pass rush without blitzing anybody? I know this one Gill. It's the Houston Texans. That's right. So I just I feel like it's a great matchup in that respect. And yet this is where your NFL historical. Yeah. Blink Malcolm Gladwell thing kicks in where you're like. Yeah, but it's the Steelers at home at Acresure. What's that song they play? I mean at night. Renegade right before the fourth quarter. You know, you can just what a setting. This is going to be for the Texans and the Steelers. I don't have a play on it, but I'm sure by game time. I will convince myself of one or the other. I laid the three of the Texans in full transparency. Besides everything that I have tied up with the Jags, really nothing else is that big of a bet for me. Like I even have even the Eagles. I got the great number of three. It's I didn't bet that crazy big or anything. Texans though brought this up earlier. If you ever someone like me was on the Ravens last week. Yeah, I think it's pretty easy to talk yourself into bet the Texans this week at a

22:31same number or even better than what the Ravens were at. Where I think you're getting a better football team overall with the Houston Texans. Yes, much of that has to do with their defense. We'll bring one thing up. Is this just a live bet in game too? Like is this like whoever takes the lead? You just bet on that team, right? Like if Texans go get out to us, 10 nothing lead. I trust that defense to hold. If the Steelers somehow get up on the Texans, I don't know if I trust CJ Stroud to get back in the game. Yeah, it's a thought. It might be right. Alaska sports talk radio issue question about all these games on the other side. Dr. Bob will join us. Zach will join us before Dr. Bob and then it's Fesick. It's a numbers game on a football Friday right here at Vison. The sports betting network. A numbers game on Fesick. The sports betting network.

23:31Head into the new year with a smarter betting strategy powered by Vison Pro. Join Vison Pro. Get instant access to everything you need to make and form bets every day. Sign up now and get daily best bets from Vison hosting guests. Real-time draft Kings and circuit betting splits. AI-powered prop tools and matchup analysis. 24-7 video and full show replays on the Vison Watch app plus. Expert picks and prop data throughout the NFL and college football playoffs. Get started in averages 999 or say 50% with an annual plan. Start betting smarter today at Vison.com. That's V-S-I-N dot com slash subscribe. We at tweets be to the book. I was appreciated DJ James. Let's see what he say here. That Ole Miss one minute and 51 second drive at the end was too fast and left too much time for Miami to come back and score. Joe Judge's worst time manager ever and Ole Miss was robbed in the end in the end zone. The defender blatantly pulled the receiver down P.I. DJ James. The thing is they never call that though. Never. Never ever. I'm very glad you and I are on the same page with this this morning.

24:33I'm shocked that it was such a big deal to people. I'm like I'm seeing tweets this morning. I'm seeing everything. P.I.P.I. You got to call that guy. Also if there was no P.I. The chances of catching that ball in the corner of the end zone like it was just such a small percentage play. Also I think about a son of Texas this early right. This is not the NFL either. It's not like the games decided on that on that call because it's not like you're getting the ball at the one yard line. Why should you get bailed out on on a corner of the end? Stop it. P.I.P. Mike Tomlin has never lost a Monday night football game at home. Proceed with caution. Saw it was it was Drew and Andy talking about this stat. Monday night full. I think it goes back even further than that. Like it might be an ever. Have we ever mentioned Mike Tomlin stats on this show before I'm curious? It might be an ever thing. The other thing that's important though is apparently there was a Monday night game. Which I don't remember this Monday night football game they played in. It was a playoff game but it was moved to Tuesday or Wednesday during the pandemic.

25:34Oh, there was a when there are skins game. They played also they got moved and then the skins like we're like two touchdown dogs and beat them. I remember doing that. I remember doing that in the regular season. Remember that in the playoffs. That was a regular. Yeah. David Dwyer Gill could not agree more outdoor football. Cold weather destinations. This year we have Denver Seattle New England Chicago. Awesome. Love the show. Thank you David. It's a very anti Kelly tweet, which I really prove really prove about that tweet as well on it. Subject. Billy Charlotte bought the three dome teams of the playoffs were three and eight on the road versus playoff teams. A little worried about my faith in those three teams now. And Ray in Texas. I live 30 miles from a massive buckies. Clothing store brisket breakfast tacos convenience store 150 gas pumps, 100 bathroom stall store managers make more than 225 K. Wow. What a go. I guess here's the question I have when I was leaving Florida. Yeah. Wow was was just was just coming into Florida. Everybody in Florida made a huge deal about like wow, wow, wow, like this is great. And like yeah, they're nice. So like what's the is that is that the equivalent or is buckies way better?

26:35You know what the one was when my mom's last year. So Wegmans came to DC. Wegmans is where she really should really go to Wegmans like over and over. It's like okay. I'm going to Wegmans for God's sake. 7.11 lifer. Okay. Too many 7-Elev. Sir. I'm a circle K guy myself ladies and gentlemen. Zach Cohen joins us down courtesy the progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter and betting on ex. Part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together. Let's talk some tennis. Let's talk some college football. Let's talk some NBA. Zach. Good morning to you. Good morning. How are you guys doing? Doing very well. You have a tennis play to start for us. I like this. Yeah. I have one play for tonight. It's modacostia plus one 12 against Jessica Papagula. But Pacula is just kind of in the same situation she was in towards the end of last year where she just keeps playing like grueling matches and it is very early in the season, but there really is no off season to chat is. So I had to fatigue is always fatigue in this sport and I do think she'll be a little bit tired here and I think that Costio has looked as good as anyone since the start of the year.

27:35I mean, it's been a week, hasn't been long but like from what I've watched so far, she looks like a top five player in the world and this is a player that's always been really talented. So I guess it'll be a really good match. Marta Costa, if I'm not mistaken, has beaten both Amanda and Nisimova and Mira Andreva here back to back. Wow. Yep, back to back. I did the impossible. Zach and I were talking about this off air. I did the impossible last night. I had two tennis plays both ending in retirements and walk over in your favor. Yes, both in my favor because I didn't look in one of them. I was six points away from a loss. I was just talking about Zach with Zach about this off air. We did a deep dive on because of this last night. How have the withdrawals gone over the years for me since the beginning of, you know, we went back to 2024 and you can't really do it precisely but you can see what the score was at the time of the withdrawal. I got destroyed on them in 2024. I made about half back in 2025 and then this year has started with like two ridiculous ones. Oh, real quick, real quick. Sorry, Zach, because I'm actually beyond fascinated

28:37in this. How many matches total did you have? Oh, great question. It was, I would say about as many tennis, it was about 30 total since the beginning of 2024. I was going to guess like 30 a year, but yeah, this is total. I think it's there. House rules, by the way. House rules. House rules are more important tennis like than anything else because you ought to know if a match gets graded after one set or in the first set, just everything. So always be looking up what your house rules are. MGM and circa only one set needs to be done before it's graded, whereas, you know, bookmaker. I think draft Kings is also one set shop, but like bookmaker, Caesars, got, got to get to the end of it. Otherwise, it's a refund. Fandall moved to. Fandall was anything's official in the first set last year. Yeah. OK, college football playoff tonight. Indiana three and a half point favorites against Oregon. Zach, where do you stand on this? I really like Indiana minus three and a half. I know that there's a lot of like revenge talk for Oregon. I know that it looks like the sucker side Indiana,

29:37but man, if you could win by 10 in Austin and you now play on a neutral site, I really think that the Hoosier should find a way to get this done. I feel like all the numbers, kind of when looking at like situational football favor Indiana, like third down percentage, they are the much better team. Field position, like to start drives and, you know, to put pin deepences back, like they've been a lot better than Oregon has this year. And I do kind of think that I just, I just don't want to go against dignity again. Last week, I had Alabama plus seven and a half. I cited the talent mismatch there, and it ended up being an absolute blowout. And I think this could be very similar. I think landing for as good as he's been with Oregon, not a great big game coach. Signati seems to be like a special, you know, coach in terms of preparation and motivation. Like I know Indiana is going to be ready to go here. From your lips to God, let's make it happen. Let's go Hoosiers, Zach on the Hoosiers, giving up the points, giving up the three and a half tonight against Oregon. The winner faces Miami in the national championship 10 days from now, 10 days from now. All right, NBA, did I see this correct?

30:37Was it game canceled because of what was a condensation on the court? Are we still having that problem? No, I haven't that problem. Last night, condensation on the court. There was, it was a, it was like a light slate too. So there was already fewer games. Right. It was terrible. It would reduce it from four games of three games, I believe. All right. You have a pair of games you like tonight. Yeah, I mean, I have some player props up. Oh, not up yet on visa.com. I'll write them up right after this, but Harvard had decapers. We'll have some more player props. But two of my plays for tonight are 76ers and money lining against the magic at minus 145. I'll start with that. Or like I just think that this magic team is kind of really right now. If you look at the last 15 games, this team has a minus 3.9 net rating. In that same span, Philly is nine and six with a plus 3.1 net rating. And I just think that these absences that Orlando is dealing with right now are absolutely huge. When you talk about Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, you're talking about two of the better defenders on a defensive minded team. And I think that in this specific matchup, not having Suggs is going to be absolutely terrible because he's one of the better point of attack defenders

31:39in the league. He's strong. He's physical. He's just very physical with these smaller guards, like the ones that the sixers have, like Maxi and Edgecomb. And I do think that if those guys just kind of get going, it's going to be really tough for the magic to win this game. I also think if in B plays, he's questionable. This will be a game that he dominates as well because Orlando is pretty weak at the center spot. All right. And then you have a play in the Rockets Blazers game tonight. Yeah, I took the Blazers. I bought it to seven and a half because I was able to get that at minus 126. And I do like seven and a half as a key number in the NBA. And I just am surprised that this is the spread for this game. I would have taken it a plus six and a half if I didn't find the price that I found. But I just, we just saw these teams play the other night. The Rockets are not playing with Alperin Shenguin right now. He's injured. And that just puts a lot on Kevin Durant against the defensive minded Portland team where I think that the Blazers are going to do a little bit of a better job of slowing down Durant if they did the other night. Durant had a big game. But I was still a game that the Blazers won outright. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could win this game outright as well.

32:40I just think this team's playing really well. Over the last seven games, there's six and one both straight up and against the spread. The Rockets have been pretty bad under E-Mail Udoca's favorites in the six and a half to 12 range. And I just think that Portland at home has been always a tough team to play against. And I do think, like I said, like Tumani Kamara can do a decent job on Durant. And I'm not sure the Rockets have much of an answer for Danny Ovdia who kind of hurting our Kiyote George bet in most improved player. Good, it's incredible. Danny Ovdia's last four games, 41, 6 and 2. Talk about points, rebounds of the assists. 33, 8, 9, 29, 10 and 10, 34, 7 and 11. Yeah, I was gonna bring it up. I'm like, hey, Zach, don't the Rockets have one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA? What's going on? Can't stop Danny Ovdia though. Can't stop him. Can only hope to contain him. That's right. I was too comments quick for sixers. I have nothing in the NBA tonight. Sixers was the closest I was to anything, Zach. So I agree with you there. Blazers Rockets, I played that under the other day

33:42that got home. I think it's still kind of the same type of rock fight. So like the dog, like the under in that game. I know we were gonna do tennis college football in NBA, but real quick in 20 seconds. What's your favorite wild card weekend play, Zach? I think it's the Eagles minus four and a half. I just, I've seen enough of the 49ers. Like I think a lot of people like to paint, like the Patriots and the Bears as the frauds of this season. I really think it's the 49ers when they've had to play good teams, they've looked terrible. Zach Cohen, everybody. Zach, enjoy the weekend. Appreciate it as always. You too. Betting on X is where you can find them. Curtis, the progressive guest line. Speaking of that, Dr. Bob on the other side is playing the wake next on a numbers game. Yeah. A numbers game on FESEN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. I have a golf bet so interesting that I don't even know if I want to say it on air that I want to throw out at you later. Scott is Schaeffler, the way to major. Close 125. Something Humber I saw.

34:43I got even better than that. a major coach 125 something I saw I got even better than that. Good. I did look at these. We're going to talk more about those next week. Oh, so I shouldn't bring it up. No, we can talk about it later. Uncle Bush on Twitter with so many younger first year coaches in this year's playoffs, which coach will have a coaching gaff moment that may cost them due to an experience. Vrable Johnson Cohen can Alice McDonald when it comes down to a coin flip game. Should you just go with experience? It's a great question. Who would you say is the most likely of that group to have a gaff moment? I don't know. If we're talking like they all they all done great. I mean, Vrable's coached in this league much. I mean, that's right. That's right. Much more experience than those other guys. That's correct. I'll go. I mean, Dave can Alice isn't going to have. He isn't going to be in a spot to have a moment that matters that much. Okay. So go Liam Cohen. He burns us. Okay. I don't know. I mean, it is likely that one will, though at some point. Lance Shaffer, don't worry, fellas. Your early take on fake May will be proven right this weekend.

35:44He's not special like our boys. Hey. See, he just put Caleb Williams and then he threw Jay Daniels in there. He wanted me to read that. I saw what happened there. Lance Shaffer. Jamie Leyva. Also think it's a good idea to play all hockey games in the streets. Kelly, come on, man. Have a fantastic weekend, gentlemen. Three Jack Gill. I see Pukka, Pukka Nakua moved to 10 to 1 at Fandall for Offensive Play of the Year. JSN still minus 2,000. Dark 12 to 1 for Offensive Rock of the Year. 10 minus 7,000. Did I miss a game since Sunday? No, people bet this and I don't think it takes much to move those, though. I'm surprised Fandall still has it up. Um, Cal, she was... Danny and I were looking at those yesterday. That Pukka movement was serious in about 24 hours. I bet it before the movement. I bet I'm at 7%. Let's go. I like that air and shot segment we had. Uh, and then Scotty Gill, regarding the Bruno Mars efficiency comment, allowing me to put Dr. Dre in the ring. He officially has two albums, but he has countless hits for over almost 40 years. That's scary to say.

36:44And I'm not even including the songs he produced and Artisie launched. Well, if we're doing produced and art and, uh, Artisie launched, then babyface, right, has to be like the guy, that kind of thing. But yes, I understand the point. But I'm gonna go Bruno in terms of this again, putting sports analytics to best bang for your most, the highest strike rate in terms of songs put out that resulted in bangers. Bruno Mars is, I think, top of list. But yes, there are candidates. Pukka, six to one currently. It's Kalashy. Let's go. Keep coming down. Come on voters. Do the right thing. Dr. Bob joins us now. Ladies and gentlemen. It's been a phenomenal season of picks on the show and just in general for him. College in pro. He's kind enough to join us once again. Currency of the progressive guest line from somewhere outside Denver, Colorado. You can follow him on Twitter at drbbsports. That's drbbsports. And drbbsports.com with lots of free analysis. Both college and pro throughout both regular seasons and maybe even beyond. How you doing, Bob? Good morning. Doing all right.

37:44I once again was living my life. And I'm not working quite as much this time of year because I'm not a full slate. I'm out there talking to my wife. I hang out. I'm like, shoot. I've got a radio. Just not that you're not at the top of my mind. But you're not on the top of my mind. I understand. Listen, I understand. It's a good way to start a segment, Bob. Every time I say that your wife is more important than I am. I understand. We might be number two on the priority list. Yeah. Maybe two is not bad. We'll tell her we apologize for breaking up the conversation. Okay. No, she's going to. She's going to thank you for an excuse to your enemy. I don't know that this is your play tonight's game. But could you just give us your thoughts on Oregon and Indiana? Uh, yeah. I it's one of those things like still with Oregon. Um, they. And I mentioned this last week is that they just. I played the under last week against Texas Tech. The Oregon offense just has not been. Really good against good defensive teams.

38:44Um, the only good defensive teams that they did. Anything against. Was James Madison in that first round of the playoff. But when they in the other. Games against good defensive teams. And let's see. We can include. Indiana. Obviously in that. Um, Penn State before they lost their linebacker. Penn State early in the season was good. Um, even Wisconsin Iowa. Those types of teams. They just have not been. Been good against those teams. So in the. In six games, it's power four conference teams. Even if you saw James Madison against good defensive teams. Like I said, Penn State before losing. Indiana was. I will Washington and Texas Tech. They've averaged just 19.7 offensive points in those six games. So they. They've relatively struggled and they only got 13 offensive points against Indiana because they had one take six to give them their 20. Um, so I still am not.

39:45I'm not going to bet Indiana because. If you. If you weigh every game equally, I, you know, I think. I think the only way. I think I think that. I think that. I think I would like to be more like Indiana minus one. But Oregon just. But obliterated and blew out really bad defense seems like Rutgers and Oklahoma state and stuff like that. So, if you sort of just look at their performances against. Better than average or average or better defensive teams. Then I come down and I get Indiana by 3.4. So it's kind of. You know, but if you want to take to the stream. If you only include Oregon's games against those top six. then maybe you get a lien with Indiana, but that's a stretch. You don't want to throw out that much information and just, you know, cherry pick, you know, in these six games, but I think there's something to it. I'm not, was not really a Dante Moore fan coming into the season and he, they tear up bad teams and they struggle against good defensive teams. That could be the case again. I mean, last week, they only averaged 4.1, 4.1 yards of play against Texas Tech. So even though they won the game, you know, I think there's,

40:45I could make an argument for either team, basically, in that game. So I know that wasn't, I know that wasn't a play, but I'm sure people wanted to hear what you had to say about it since it is, of course, front of mind tonight. What about your play of the week for us at the wildcard round at the NFL? What do you have? I'm going to go with Pittsburgh. Last time I was on the show, I think it was two weeks ago. I had Cleveland over Pittsburgh as, as my plan the show, and that one won. Pittsburgh's offense without Metcalfe is night and day difference. I mean, you make such a difference to that team. And here Houston has that elite defense and have to change their normal game plan to find a way to have success against the Texans. Pittsburgh really doesn't have to change anything about what they normally do because what they normally do kind of takes advantage of what the Texans do defensively. It's a pressure rate. Steelers are second in the league and past blocking efficiencies to Texas. Not likely to get to the quarterback as much, especially there in Rogers being the third fastest average time to throw of any quarterback in the league.

41:54So I think that works and takes a little bit, you know, kind of uses Houston's aggressiveness against it. Pittsburgh's offense targets running backs 25% of the time. Kenneth Gainwell is a really come on. He ranks fourth among running backs in yards for a route run. And the screen game sort of takes advantage of that aggressiveness that Houston has kind of slows down their passage a little bit. And Houston leads the league and they designed those plays really well. They history lead the league and with 6.5 yards after the catch. A lot of short passes, but they turn those short passes into better than normal gains, you know, by leading the league in yards after catch. Now Houston's defense is the one week link on on short throws, air yards of 10 yards or less. They have the ninth most missed tackles in the league. So those screen passes should work, you know, pretty well against Houston's defense. Yeah, the one weakness they have is that they, you know, the linebackers don't make tackles as well as they should on a short pass. Houston also has an 80% standard pass rush rate, which is the highest in the league.

42:55Pittsburgh's offense ranked second relatively versus a standard pass rush compared to the blitz. So that matches up pretty well with them. Then you got DK met cap. As I mentioned, coming back to keep, you know, keeps the defense is honest allows them to run that short game stuff that they like to run the short passing game. And Texans, you know, they do the four man pass rush. They play a lot of cover for six times cover for rate in the league. And Metcath had being back, you make them respect that deep ball. So they'll probably still play a lot of cover for. But that opens up the space underneath for the quick passes and passes to the tight end. Pittsburgh's offense is relatively good against cover for the average 16% more yards per play versus cover for compared to other coverages. And that's the second seventh best in the league in that metric. So there's a lot of things going, you know, in their way. And the last point I want to make is the stillers defense early season struggled, especially relative to their talent level. They were 25th in the in the league and expected points added for play in the first eight weeks of the season.

43:55Then they moved Jalen Ramsey from Nickelback to safety. This then Pittsburgh's defense is conceding negative 0.3 EPA per play with Ramsey at safety, which is 0.12 EPA per play better than the first half of the season. And I mentioned that they're now allowing negative EPA per play with Ramsey at safety because CJ Sprout, CJ Strout against defenses that are allowing a negative EPA per play this season. He's only average 5.3 yards per pass play in those games. So he's tended to struggle against the better defenses. And Pittsburgh now has a good defense playing to kind of the level expected them when you look at the talent at the beginning of the season. So I think Pittsburgh's defense is playing about as good as they can. Pittsburgh's offense is that healthy matches up pretty well with all that considered. I think Steelers by one is what I would make make the same. So I'll take the three. Wow. Chris Velika just texted. He goes, Dr. Bob is emptying the clip here. There you go. Well done, Bob. That's why we have you all because we don't hear those like Houston tackling problems. We don't hear that anywhere else.

45:00Bob, but thank you. Enjoy the weekend. Say hello to the wife. All right, buddy. Thank you. Dr. Bob, everybody. Predictive sports modeling pioneer. He prefers legend. Coming back Steve Fezick on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network.