A Numbers Game | January 8, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00This is Vincent, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. Swampdow's idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill, I have Xander gone. Good Thursday. Morning, too. There's a numbers game at Vs in the sports betting network Vs in dot com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV series XM channel 158. However, you're taking a sip. We appreciate it. Kill, Alexander Kelly Midland on this Thursday morning when football resues. Let's go. And next five days, oh, it's so great. College tonight, college tomorrow, two, three and one Saturday, Sunday, Monday for the pros. It don't get no better than this. I believe it's what old Milwaukee beer is. I mean, I don't think any shocker to anybody who listens to the show, but I've been so wrapped up in like in the NFL and like getting prepped for that. Like it kind of hit me last night. Where it's like, hey, that Miami games tomorrow. Yes, it is great. On the show today to discuss Miami and Ole Miss tonight.

1:01And of course, Indiana and Oregon tomorrow. Tim Murray of Vs in college football betting podcast host Vs in college football tailgate host Vs in prime time host, not necessarily in that order. He'll join us later this hour and Chris Felica. Is that correct? The Chris Felica will be here today. Yep. The bear from Fox Sports to discuss his alma mater. Miami get his thoughts on the game tonight and tomorrow night. And I don't know. Maybe we'll get more than just college football out of either of them. Are we sure a little later on a stomachs and gurus question mark? Upside down question mark at the beginning, right side up question mark at the end. See unscripted with Bill Crack a burger, of course. Crack man unscripted. It is a Thursday after all. Perhaps I should have led with that. Oh, and one other thing on the heels of Aaron Chatz yesterday. You know, who's on the show today? And it was making a brief appearance. Love it. Love it. Cleve TA, baby. One of the great NFL Twitter followers. Cleve will be here to discuss wild car weekend. And his thoughts on the awards. We'll try to jam all that into a one segment. I would say unquestionably one of my favorite people that we got to show up that showed up during the summer.

2:06And we got to finally, I got to finally meet him too. Right. He was your first time meeting him. First time meeting him. I was great to talk to him person. Great time back on the show. The mysterious TA. That's right. Yeah. No, we're looking forward to that as well. Real quick before we get to Miami and Ole Miss. Any thoughts that none of the tray young trade has happened? Do you have anything to add to that about that? Trey young to the wizards. It's, it's, it's all very interesting to me. It is. I don't know. There's a little bit in my back in my mind that it's a shame this got to this point. I think we're tray in the hawks. I think what they were trying to build, um, you know, we around him and with him. It kind of sucks. It just, it went, it got this way. But we knew it was going to, you kind of knew this was likely going to happen when they didn't offer them the extension over the summer. It was okay. Trey, you're on thin ice. They start designing the rest of this team with better defense. And okay, you're become the weak link. Where do you fill fit in? And just clearly it didn't, it didn't, the beginning of the season just wasn't going to work.

3:06It was time for them to split, um, and look. It's a, I think it's kind of a sad trade in the day, right? Like the wizards get someone who's going to fill some seats a little bit. I guess 10, 10 seats. 10 extra seats. And Atlanta just, what all this really means for Atlanta is you're jumpstarting a year of, of the expiring contract of CJ McCollum, you're going to get a year ahead of them. What you were going to get out of Trey, young who will opt into his player option this summer because he's not going to get that kind of money elsewhere. Yeah, um, sad is a, is a great word to use here because if you took the, if you took the Luca trade to the Lakers as the pinnacle of the world going in a frenzy, the basketball world going to frenzy, this is the opposite of that. This is like, I don't know if anybody even batting an eye at this trade and for two guys that will forever be linked from, from the draft, um, Oh, Trey and Luca, Trey and Luca, who were, who were traded on draft day. That's absolutely right. Uh, I hadn't thought about that, but don't worry. The executive who decided on Trey is with Washington right now. So, you know, it's just got all that good. It makes perfect sense for Atlanta, right?

4:07They figured, you know, he was the deficiency on defense. They've been playing this way for years. It more than made up for it incrementally by his, by his presence on offense. What did that get them? That got them a 43 win season, right? Uh, one year they got to the conference finals, right? But they've never been able to match that. And so then they, they finally made the, the assessment this year. Well, we can be a 43 win team actually without Trey now. Right. And so that's why they were willing to let him go. And then they're going to try to get Anthony Davis. I guess from a Washington stamp, which is where I'm, of course, amused by, and yes, let me just preface it by saying it is impossible for me to talk about this without immediately getting angry, right? About the fact that they traded Avdia. And now you're trying to gin up excitement about getting Trey young. Sorry, I can't. I just can't. But there's, I guess there's no, on the, on the other hand, is there any harm in trying to go from sucking to middling? I guess not. Trey young doesn't make anyone around him better, right?

5:08Frankly, but I, the interesting thing about this, I'll sort of wrap it up with this. The interesting about this is, did Washington make this trade based on their recent surge of success? In other words, they've won all of a sudden, they've won some, some ball games. Did they all of a sudden toggle to, oh, okay, maybe this is our moment to go from sucking to try to make something to start, right? This has to be a start. Right. Trey young is not the answer. Has to be a start to something. And so that I, I think in that respect, it's interesting because if they had not had that surge of games, would they've even done this? I don't know that that matters. I think just looking at the roster overall where maybe they believe, right? I think I'll, I'll say it's kind of like throwing fuel on the fire, right? If you've got a little fire that's growing that you think you've got something with pieces on the team, younger pieces, add a guy like Trey young. It's going to accelerate where your offense is at a year from now completely. But it's, you know, the wizards, the nets, the jazz, like, you've hit the point where you can, you have to start building somewhere.

6:08Some of this has to start going somewhere. So I don't know if Trey young is the answer for that or not. The last thing I'll say on is with the, on the Atlanta side, I said this last week, I think I'd stand by it like the, with what they got in return. I think this team is set up now better for regular season success. I don't know if that translates to the playoff. So I think a guy like Trey young will be missed by this team. You brought up the jazz in there. Oklahoma City needs a buzzer beater from SGA last night to beat him in overtime. Were you watching that pure, pure theater? I mean, like the fact that that went to overtime, you're like, no, wait, is this going to happen again? No way. Yeah. And then SGA just put the team on his back. I'm just going to say it again, because I said earlier in the week, did a whole thing on it. They got to figure out something long term for load management on this guy. Yep. Because this is, yeah, I don't like the, I really don't. I think, I think people are assuming they're like a four championship team. And I think this is not the way, they're not going to get anywhere close to that, the way that they're dealing with this. Anyway, and if it gets any words, it's interesting.

7:08If it brings up more conversations before we get to the trade deadline, right? Like this is a team that we all just said, no, they're good. Like they're not going to do anything. They got all these assets, but they're built for the future and built for now. Why would you do anything? All right, college football tonight. Miami, Ole Miss, National Sema, the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona. We will have Chris Vellico on a little later. Tim Murray talking about this, of course, giving their thoughts on the game. I am on Miami, two bets I made again earlier this week. I'm on Miami, minus two and a half. I actually bought it down to two and a half earlier this week. Good on you. And then I also have Indiana tomorrow. I got the worst of it with Indiana. I actually got, you know, late four. I have Indiana to win the title, but I do think Indiana is the best team in the country. I think Miami's the second best team. And if you look at Miami season, there are only two losses, Kelly, by three and six points, I believe it was respectively, to Louisville and SMU. The Louisville game, they turned the ball over four times. It was a minus three turn over differential, including the game clinching pick from Carson Beck.

8:11And then the SMU game, which they lost by six, which is a lot of what people sort of lean on that game. They almost had the ball for 38 minutes. Miami, they committed 12 penalties in that game. They had a tremendous, the officiating in that game was such that anything that could have gone against Ole Miss, the flag was either kept in the pocket, or was picked up off the field. It was just a very anti-called game. Not saying it was deliberate. I'm just saying the way that the cookie crumbled in that game, it was all against the canes. And those are the only two blemishes on the season. That's it. And since then, now in the college football playoff, they have just behind Bane and Messador to start with, but then Mountain also and all these guys have just been amazing. They've held A&M to three points. They've held Ohio State to 14. Do I think they'll hold Ole Miss to 14? No. Ole Miss's offense is obviously more dynamic. I think the offensive line is better than those two.

9:12But in the end, I have to be on the canes here. Not that the canes offense is setting the world on fire either. But ultimately, do I feel like you lean on Fletcher, you grind it out on offense against a middling Ole Miss defense? Do I trust, what unit do I trust the most out there? It's the Miami defense. I like the canes. I'd even lay the three. I like them to advance to the finals tonight. Yeah, I joined you as well finally last night. I don't know, I sat there. What was it two and a half we were talking on Monday? Or on Monday it was two and a half at like 120. I don't know why I didn't like that kill. And I waited for three 120. But I'm in, laid the three with Miami. The other drama, of course, the big drama surrounding this game. And to what extent it matters, I don't know. We'll all kind of find out together. And then even if we find out, I'm not sure we can necessarily draw a perfect line to it. It's not a quantifiable thing. But the laying kiffin stuff is just, it just gets more ridiculous. What a what an insecure small man he must be.

10:15If I may just be so blunt. You remember how it went down. He clearly wanted to go to LSU. Remember that was after throwing the, the administration there at Ole Miss under the bus. When I was like, I wanted to stay here. They just wouldn't let me. Right. That was his first PR move on the whole thing, which was nonsense. Then as he goes, he says, if you coaches don't get on the plane right now, you can't come with me to Ole Miss. He did that whole routine. Jimbo Fisher did a chime did on this now too. Then according to Jimbo, and I agree with Jimbo, Jimbo said, he thinks Lane figured that Ole Miss would lose to Georgia. So that, so when the PR backlash came about him saying, you get on the plane, you can't be a coach with me here at LSU. When the PR backlash occurred, then kiffin relented, right? For some of the coaches to stay behind. Jimbo Fisher says he probably thought they were going to lose to Georgia. And now after Ole Miss beats Georgia, Joe Cox, their tight ends coach and co-offensive coordinator, has to go back to LSU. Glanes like, nope, you got to come here again.

11:17George McDonnell, their wide receivers coach, your passing game coordinator, lanes like, nope, you got to come over here to LSU. So now Ole Miss is down. So they were allowed. They were not allowed to have the coaches. They were allowed to have the coaches. And now Lane is pulling back some more of the coaches, which is just ridiculous. The only coaches that remain now are Charlie Weiss Jr. They're offensive coordinator and running back coach Kevin Smith. Those are the only two now. The Ole Miss. A few Ole Miss breaths. We're allowed. Now it begs the question, if Ole Miss wins this game, just Lane then go, oh, you got to get those two back. Probably. Like, it's just insane. It has to matter. Right, it has to matter. It has to at some point. Timber and Felica chiming in on this coming up. On a numbers game at Beeson. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get Bet's home pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now, so can you. Beeson pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters

12:19are turning knowledge into profit with Beeson pro. A numbers game on Beeson, the sports betting network. Water bets smarter, Star Wars smarter insights. Right now, you can check out Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets, Steve McAdden's college football playoff semi-finals best bets, and the daily racing forms horse racing picks for Santa Anita. Later's day, you can check out Tyler Schumaker's men and women's college projections, Zachary Collins, NBA best bets, and Jonathan Davis's NHL picks and props. You can get full Beeson pro access for as little as $9.99 for your first 30 days. See all the options at vsin.com slash subscribe. Kelly, hands me a rundown every day. It's just always interesting to see some of the hit your notes. Notes from the night before, always in there, yeah. Yeah, and you know, do I, do we go to them every day? No, not really. Sometimes we do sometimes we do. It's great to have for a fall back though. Great, that's a fun time. Sometimes we do sometimes we do. It's great to have for a fall back. That's a fall back, but one of the notes that Kelly has on here is

13:21Thundercat is scared, but avoid dropping their seventh game in the last 13 as they beat the jazz at overtime. And I just thought about it's like, if you had handed, like if you had gone to the future, brought this back to us two weeks ago, and I had read that line. I've been like, what are you talking about? It cannot possibly be. You would have said someone screwed this up. The 24-in-1 Oklahoma City Thunder, by the way, Avdina with 41 last night, two shy of his career high. Let's go, Danny. The last thing about the Wizards on that, they better hope Corey Kispert. And I'm not saying he will. Oh, yeah. But they better hope Corey Kispert doesn't become like a poor man's off to you. That's the other thing about this. All of a sudden, it does turn into that amazing three-point shooter that they were hoping to add. Oh, no. I will say on the, I did run my only bet tonight. I'll squeeze it in quick. Only bet of the association tonight is Mavericks. This is not a team that I've been very high on, but oh boy, the jazz after that overtime game at Oklahoma City have to go back to Salt Lake City tonight and get ready for the Dallas Mavericks

14:21who have been sitting in the way. And that is a bad, bad spot for old Utah jazz. That's bad spot. Bad spot. Matt Brown loves spot. Big spot. He loves betting spots. Okay. Let's look at some NFL markets. Well, Crescendo to the hero. He's a third one fascinates. Matt Brown's greatest blow up ever, by the way. That's the greatest prime time I should blow up. Getting angry about anything to that level. I guess Kelly went to a sandwich spot or one of those terms, you know, a flat spot or whatever. One of those terms won too many times for Matt's liking and he just went ballistic on what all these spots. Yeah, look at sandwich. Let down. Wild car weekend. Highest scoring team. Lowest scoring team. We'll do that first. This ought to correlate, right, with what team totals are in the market. It ought to. Does it exactly, not exactly. And so therefore the idea for me here is, you should, does your handicap a matter, of course, if you have conviction, it should always matter.

15:23But the very first thing you should do with this kind of stuff to me is just be aware of where the discrepancy is, right? And so in this, if you go to team totals here, by the way, highest scoring team. Wild car weekend. The Rams are the short shot at plus 350. That makes sense. If you do the team totals, the Rams are like 28 and a half-ish in their game against Carolina. Yep. Okay, that makes sense. Bills, by the way, being second, makes sense as well at plus 450, they're at like 26 and a half-ish. One point favorites over the Jaguars currently, right? So that makes sense. Where it gets a little weird or not exactly a direct line is after that, where I would argue the best value just based on the number. Forget, get your handicap angle to the side for a second. The Jaguars at six to one is probably the best number on that board, because the Jaguars, again, current wind total, team total, pardon me, current team total, 25 and a half-ish, right? That area. So that's the best number in this category.

16:24Now, your handicap should then follow it. Once you know that, right? Then your handicap should follow. Maybe you think, hey, maybe that corroborates your conviction. I think the Jaguar is going to beat the Bills. All the more reason for me to want to bet the Jags at six to one. Was there anything there for you that you liked better? Well, a perfect breakdown. I absolutely think if you're going to look at these markets, that's how you need to start it. That jumped out to me. I have one book pulled up right now. Jags, Eagles, Patriots, all 24 and a half on the team total. What's the difference though? Jags are minus 135 to that over, and both the others are juiced to the under. So you said 25 and a half, you know, same sort of thing, right? They are. There's a clear edge though in the Jags, compared to where the Eagles and Patriots numbers are. And frankly, Gil, like you and I are on the Jags already. I think the Bills have major defensive issues. This is one I'm going to shop around for. If I can get seven to one eight to one, I know I'm getting a little greedy now, but it's a kind of nice looking bet six to one. It's yeah, yeah, not here yet. And it's a fun one for a lot of our week.

17:25And you get all these. It is nice having this many games, I think, because at least you have markets like this that are just down to six teams, you know, eight teams. What's the perfect number of games? There's many games and not too many to, you know, make it ridiculous. Yeah, exactly. So the, yeah, that was the one that jumped off the page to be. I don't know if there's any others you want to talk through. I mean, like, I guess I want to go to the third one most. I'm going to leave time for that. Rams are rightful favorites, right? Like, rightful favorite. No, I'm not going to be shocked if they put up 42 on the Carolina Panthers. I the other one that kind of jumped out to me is just if you really like the Niners this week, I mean, like if the Niners are going to win this week, they're going to put up points. I don't think this is a defensive battle that they're, that they're squeezing out over the over the Philadelphia Eagles. So like, I kind of, I don't hate that as a little kind of sprinkle if you are on the Niners. If you are on the Niners, right? Okay, low, low scoring team, right? You just invert that where in this case, the lowest scoring team, the Steelers and the Panthers are both going to be at plus 350.

18:25They're the short shots. That makes sense. Both of their team totals is right around 18 in their respective games against the Texans and the Rams, the book end games, if you will. And then the other teams follow suit. Texans, still a low totaled game, right? It's six to one right there. Yeah. You know, it should be the exact opposite of what you see in the first category. And then just Rins and repeat. The third one here that I want to look at here, Kelly, is really the one that is the most interesting. I don't like to have anything you'd want to bet here. No, I mean, like it'd be Panthers and hold my nose and like, that's not something I'm looking to get. That's true. It's a tough bet to live through. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So especially if you bet something like, what have you bet one of the early games? So you're like, oh, cool. They only put up 10 points. You got to live through the rest of the games. Great. Superbowl matchup combined seeds. Now again, just out of the interest of being thorough, right? All these markets exist. This one's a DraftKings. Superbowl matchup combined seeds. Now, remember, there's actual other books.

19:26I don't think DraftKings have Superbowl matchups but I'm not sure they do. They do. They do. Okay. So DraftKings also, in addition within the same book, but also other books have Superbowl matchups, meaning, oh, Rams versus Broncos, Jaguars versus Seahawks, whatever you want to like pair two teams, to actually make the Superbowls to get longer odds on that. But if you just wanted to do it by the number, Superbowl matchup combined seeds. So this is what let's do in reverse order. I think your handicap is like the third level of this. Your actual conviction on teams. Your second level of handicapping ought to be, well, let me figure out all what the pricing is of all the different combinations that would end up being six, meaning a four versus a two, a five versus a one, or a three versus a three, that end up in the Superbowl for the six, where six is the short shot at plus four, 25. If you could throw up the chart there, people will understand it better visually. So three, three, four versus two, five versus ones

20:26ends up being a six combined seeds plus four, 25. So your third level is your handicapping. Your second level is just figuring out if all those combinations, the individual combinations that end up at six mathematically correspond to plus four, 25. So you'd have to do some math there. But the very first level of this Kelly, before you get to any of that is just knowing how many different combinations there are for all of these, right? Just very the simplest level is this. Six, right, I just mentioned it. Three versus three, two, four versus two, and two, five versus one. So there's five different combinations that can get you to six. I love this conversation, by the way, because this is like craps or Superbowl squares. Exactly, like craps. It's exactly like craps. That's what craps leaves to mind with dice, right? So seven, right, combined seeds of seven, you end up with six different combinations, right? Three, four, five, two, six, ones. The eights have the most. There's seven different combinations that can get you to eight. So and you have to do this for every number, right? Whereas four, there's only three combos, and two, there's obviously only one combo,

21:27a one seed versus a one seed. Three is there's only two combos, right? Two versus one, one versus two. So you have to know that stuff at the very basic level then before you assess the math, then the third level of throwing your handicap into it. So just in a real life situation, if you are a Rams believer, let's say you're a Rams believer, the Rams are a five seed. You have to realize that if you like the Rams, six is definitely not a number you want to bet then, because your only combination with the Rams is to face the Broncos, the AFC one, and you might as well just bet a Rams Broncos straight matchup in that case, you'll get exponentially better of a bang for your buck. So that's, I think that's what makes this kind of market on the one hand very interesting. On the other hand, kind of not really the most bettable, although maybe you can talk yourself into one of the ones with lots of combos. Well, I think it's the conversation has to start with the Rams, right? The Rams are influencing pricing on this.

22:28Like if you were going to, if you were going to ask is this, would six be the short shot most years? No, it's because the Rams are a five seed and they're second on the futures board, right, but simultaneously that it locks you into only that one matchup with the Rams, that's the problem. So take the eight, right, the eight, the falling on eight as the most combinations, seven different combos. You're getting a four versus a four. That's unlikely, right? Panthers aren't playing the Steelers, but you're getting a five three. I don't know, people have Rams, people like the Texans, people like the Jags, people like the Eagles. You're getting the six twos, you're getting the seven ones. I don't know. So that's, it's just an interesting, multi-layered mathematical thing to assess. You may or may not find it something you'd like to actually pull the trigger. You don't probably end up in the matchup market. You'll probably, if that's exactly right, you'll probably determine, maybe the individual matchups are better. Let's come back, cleave TA on the NFL. Next. A numbers game on FISA, these sports betting network.

23:35Hey, don't forget, check out the Sharp plays on match transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros, scan the QR code for more, we invite you to check them out. Sharp plays dot com. It's Gill Alexander Kelly, middling alongside this gentleman is one of our favorites. We love him and you couldn't tell that we love him because it's been too long since we've had him on the show. Hopefully we can have him on not only today, but also get him on the Megapod next week schedule permitting. He is one of the best, he will, he gets uncomfortable when I say this, but he really is one of the best NFL follows there is on Twitter at cleave TA CL EV TA TA joins us now from somewhere in the Cleveland area courtesy of the progressive guest line. How you doing, man? I'm good guys. How are you? Can't believe we're heading to the playoffs in an interesting season and the playoffs will be really interesting. That's for sure. Well, before we get into this is your wild card thoughts, your wild card weekend thoughts, can you? Let's talk about what we just talked about briefly off air.

24:36You had a great season, but in one way and not the other, explain. Yes, so from a personal kind of betting perspective, I hit probably nearly 60% from sides and totals, but when it comes to things like circummillions, I was just below 500 for the year and just never gained ground, gained traction. I think it was, it's a combination of, played a little bit too much game theory, like tried to take some stale lines in the contest, didn't actually bet those, but put them in the contest and a lot of those lost. And then a bunch of other times, I bet early in the week, usually I'm a Monday, Tuesday guy when it comes to sides, especially, those lines move so much by the time you get to the contest lines. I don't even put them in my card and because the number moved too much and don't think there's value anymore and those end up hitting personally, but I don't include them in my card. So it was just kind of an odd season in that regard, but I guess if I win one or the other, I'll take my personal wagers with real money instead of

25:39absolutely, absolutely. If you don't have, if you had to pick one of them, all right, let's say let's do wild car weekend. Let's start with what you like best side or total. Yeah, so right as we got to the good part, we lost clear. Oh, that was going to be exciting. I agree. I, whatever he said, whatever he's about to say, I completely agree. The guy who got cut off right there, he was drifting there at the end there. I was wondering what was going to happen. We'll get him back on. By the way, we have some breaking news in the meantime, while we get him boy, oh boy, it has happened. I Adam Schefter reporting that the dolphins have fired head coach Mike McDaniel. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross met with McDaniel this week to discuss the season after that meeting and reflection, Ross decided to move on. Wow. This was one of those where earlier in the season, we thought he could be the first coach fired, but then sadly, not sadly, but good for him, the dolphins turned it around, quote unquote, right, turned it around enough where they didn't stink anymore.

26:41And you thought maybe Mike McDaniel survives this, but apparently not, not apparently evidently not done, though. I thought like he would, I, yes, it felt like he was safe by the end of the season. He was as soon as the season ends and he didn't get fired immediately. Uh, it felt like he was even safe for Gill. And you know, the first thought I had when Danny texted this over, fair, unfair. This is John Harbohg, we're immediately related. Like, is this immediately linked to John Harbohg? I don't know. They want to stuck around with McDaniel for another year. John didn't show up on the market. Everybody speculating that about everything, right? People are speculating, oh, it's the, remember how yesterday we was talking about Harbohg's agent said, oh, seven teams have already contacted us within 45 minutes. And there was only six vacancies. And it was saying like, who, who was the team that still has a coach? Maybe it's Buffalo if they lose that Sean McDermott will be gone and that they will go after John Harbohg. So everybody's speculating the John Harbohg thing. Um, but there you go. There's a seventh vacancy now as a fifth coach is let go from the end of the regular season

27:41till now. Remember with the giants and Titans having interim positions. Those are the two extra ones. So seven. We are now one shy of a quarter of the league having a head coaching vacancy. We also know that Todd Bulls is staying per Todd Bulls in Tampa Bay. There will not be a move in Tampa Bay for those speculated. There might be there off as a coordinator out though. Jonathan Grazard that came down this morning. Yeah, he is gone. Did you see that? Well, so I did the whole when, uh, when the commanders got rid of the two, uh, coordinators Kingsbury and wit junior, uh, the other day. And I did the whole thing about it, instant reaction to it and saying, you know, the Kingsbury should have never lost his job. Um, we had some reported yesterday from, uh, from, uh, I was a Jordan Schultz who put this out yesterday, like, yeah, apparently Dan Campbell, a report, excuse me, Dan Campbell, Dan, uh, Quinn reports where he didn't want to let go of either of the two of them. So it was clearly a, it's him or them situation in Washington too. So maybe it's sort of similar to that in Tampa Bay. Um, but there's the latest dolphins firing head coach Mike McDaniel out.

28:46And Mike Buchan was always, always one of those guys, Kelly, through the years where I said about him, you know, nerdyish, quirkyish guy, right? He doesn't fit the central casting Dan Campbell, uh, football coach sort of thing where it's a tough guy, big guy, he was the opposite of that. And that works when you win and I always said that as soon as things go bad for a guy like that, it tends to go bad quicker because you don't fit that central casting mode of whatever folks thinking NFL coaches look like. So that's the latest out of there. Um, we have, we get tweets of being in the book NCI 95 when his cleave on, well, he was just on for a couple of minutes, which we'll effort getting him back on. Uh, we'll see if that works. Uh, this is from, let's see, Mike gazilles duke 90 label A, talk about the bullets. Uh, Tony Cornhyzer's, uh, term for the bullets, the Washington bullets back in the 90s. When he wrote for the, uh, Washington Post, he says, he says they're cursed. Denny, two silent letters of the only average double figures once in four years. So they traded him for a guy from Baltimore named Bubb. Then Denny gets George Michael frosted tips and averages 16.9 again.

29:51Four and one last night. Oh, we do have cleave back. Cleave will do the, uh, the truncated version of this. Your favorite wild card bet this weekend is what? Sorry about that. Pulled my microphone out by accident. Um, yeah, I like the chargers three and a half. I think I make this number just, uh, south of, uh, three. I just think that you've got a, um, a Patriots team as good as they played this year. Just, you know, we know about their schedule. But if you look at some of the, the quarterbacks they faced, it go, go ahead and run through those. It's actually incredible. Uh, two games versus Josh Allen. I have a game against Lamar and that's it. Like Baker may feel maybe is the next best quarterback they've faced. So I have not been tested at all. They face 16s and consider with a pulse, uh, between the bills twice, the Steelers, the, the Falcons may be Tampa, uh, in Baltimore and they've won one game, uh, amongst them at three and three, uh, ATS won one game by more than four points. Like they just haven't done anything to me. Um, from a, uh, perspective of facing good teams facing to quarterbacks, uh,

30:54that really scares me. I think, you know, Herbert probably the second best quarterback they faced all year. And the thing with the, the chargers is they're obviously poor on the offensive line. But the, the, the Patriots one of the worst from a adjusted pass for standpoint in the league. So not really worried about that, uh, from that perspective, got a really good coach. Obviously in Harbaugh, got a really good defense. That limits explosive plays, which we know Drake may love. Number one, the NFL and explosive pathways. They're fourth and limiting explosive passes. So, you know, I just think it's from a matchup perspective, getting, uh, north of three points here, especially with a quarterback playing his first playoff game against a veteran like Herbert. I do think, you know, that stuff does matter, uh, in the wildcard round. So, uh, give me the chargers here. I'm with you. There's lots of other reasons to, uh, in, we, we showed your snaps against backup quarterbacks and 30th, uh, number 30 ranked EPA and worse. We put up that chart. Patriots have faced the most snap. 69% I believe it was, uh, against that, that so that 61%. There's the cleave chart that we showed earlier in the week. This is just great, great chart from you.

31:55Uh, this is awesome. So there, there's that at the top. Also, uh, to your point about a rookie quarterback, people wondering, is that a really a thing, uh, favorites with a quarterback, making his first playoff start seven, 20 and one against the spread as favorites against the team with a quarterback with playoff experience. Uh, okay. In the last couple of minutes we have here at TA, let's, uh, let, let, let me just leave it open. Energy you about awards. What are you the most passionate about? What, what, what, what, who do you think in whatever category ought to win? What's the one you're most passionate about? I don't know about most passionate. I had a Tyler Schutt took it at 211. I tweeted about mid November. So that's gone long gone. I did hedge out with ethnic no one. So I'm okay there. I made some money. I'm happy with, I don't know. I think, uh, you know, I'm a Drake may stand, I guess from a MVP standpoint, but I understand the staffer people. I don't like the lifetime achievement award, but, you know, is what it is. It got a lot of friends in the media. I think the coach of the year is fascinating. I think Liam Cohen is getting completely short, short changed. I mean, like the, the improvement that they've made both offensively and defensively,

32:59look what he's done with Trevor Lawrence has been incredible. I mean, this is a top five offense right now. And people are talking about running Lawrence on the town last, last year. And just, you know, I think Ravel, you know, excellent coach, but that's clearly a schedule plus Drake may to me that is really causing them to, you know, to get the number to see. I think Cohen has been more impactful and more hands on with a guy like Lawrence. And, you know, Ben Johnson's great. And Mike McDonald's excellent. Like I had him last year at him and O'Connell heading in the last year. So it's probably a year too early, but, you know, that defense was already really good. I mean, it was a top 10 defense heading of the season. And so as great as they've been and playing in a tough, tough division like that, I just think that Liam Cohen just been a notch above the rest. I think there's value there. I don't know if they'll win it, but I do think he deserves it slightly above those meals. Other guys, yeah, it's going to be a totally splintered vote, I think. So who knows? Maybe a Cohen, maybe Ben Johnson. Who knows? Liam Cohen, absolutely deserving as are so many of these guys.

34:01TA, I hope it works out. We get you on the Megapod next week, man. Sorry about the, uh, the truncated version today. Appreciate your time. That's my fault. That's my fault. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Cleve TA on Twitter, by the way, C-L-E-V-T-A. And you can check them out. All this stuff at cleveanalytics.com as well. We'll come back to Murray on the college football semi's beginning tonight on a numbers game in visa. These sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, live from Circus, Orcsito, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. That's too bad, man. That we have the, uh, the issue with, uh, cleave. He will be on the Megapod next week, though. So it's, uh, drew today, drew density today on the wildcard version of the Megapod cleave TA on the divisional round version of the beating the book of Megapod next week. So we look forward to that for more, uh, more from cleave.

35:03We've got shortchanged, uh, this is from a stickhard not all on Twitter. The most interesting part of the tray young trade for me is that trade Johnson is no longer blocked by CJ McCollum. Yes. He says, imagine the tray and tray eighties poster. It's so true. It's so true. The cheesy eighties poster or the bullets were the thunder and lightning. Yeah. That was their whole ad campaign at that time. Posters. That was our big form of entertainment. Oh, man. Posters. Oh, posters. So many on the walls as a kid. Come on, man. Oh, fera faucet. Jason H 11. Sorry. You lost me for a second already bet Jags highest scoring team plus seven eighty. Jason H 11 says Trevor Lawrence, most yards plus 1040. Josh Jacobs, most rushing yards plus 690. Van Duel has a daily boost going on those markets. Poké therapy. Anything from Dr. Bob on tonight's game. Uh, yeah, he always does analysis for every game. But as far as a bet is concerned, no. He says his numbers too close to market both on side and total. So nothing on anything in tonight's game between Miami and Ole Miss. But you know who might have some thoughts?

36:03Tim Murray might have some thoughts. He's the host of decent prime time. He's the host of the college football betting podcast. He's also host of the college football tailgate show and he joins us now courtesy the progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter at one. That's the number one Tim Murray with his, uh, royal wave that he just did for us right there. How you doing, man? Oh, man. I'm just, I mean, can you feel the excitement in the nation's capital with tray young coming to town? It's palpable. I mean, kill. Oh, man. Man, I mean, I mean, I'm just been getting calls. I mean, this, this puppy has not rang once or gotten one text from anyone that I, uh, Tim, I tried to make this point the other day when this first came up. I'm like, people don't understand. You have to find Wizards fans first to actually get their reaction to this. They don't exist. I, uh, it might be a little harsh. And maybe this is a offseason topic, not the day of, you know, the college football playoff. I think the Wizards are a top five most irrelevant sports franchise. I brought this up. This is what I said.

37:03You're doing what you're doing a bit. I said the other day, I go, I know this is going to spark some sports talk radio at the word I used was not irrelevant. The word I used was inconsequential. Same thing, right? Like it's just just kind of live, yeah, they live in like that mediocrity. Land Kelly knows more so than we do. But like they're just like, uh, you know, 30 and 52. They just kind of live in that random land of, they're not going to be the thunder and tank and then be the best team in the NBA. It's just, hey, man, we had that year where they made it to the Eastern Conference semi-finals and game seven against the Celtics. Never forget, Gil. It's just so sad. Tag never forget. It's gotten so sad to this point where it's just like they keep like, it's like, it's so insulting to the fans, right? It's like as long as we get one semi big name, like it will bring enough people that who cares? They had their name. Denny Avdia. Let me know. Let me know. By the way, last thing before we get to Miami and Ole Miss, Mike McDaniel just got fired. He used to, of course, the famous 2013 Washington Redskins photo with all the coaches right,

38:06Matt LaFloor, Kyle Shanahan, Ray Morris, Mike McDaniel. I mean, they were all there. O.C., you were saying off air? You think? Sure. I mean, I, I told you, I don't think they should have fired Cliff Kingsbury. I thought that was an odd choice. I said the same. It's not his fault that Jayden Daniels was her, Terry McClure and was hurt. The offensive line was awful, but yeah, I mean, if Mike McDaniels interest of coming to the nation's capital where he once coached and the owner is gone and he believes in Jayden Daniels, absolutely. Yeah, I would, I think they'll have to get in line. I think Mike McDaniel will be a very hot commodity from the offensive coordinating route. But yeah, for Washington, I think if you're going to fire Cliff Kingsbury, I think Mike McDaniel is a very, very good replacement. Absolutely. I would agree. All right. Festival tonight. Miami, Ole Miss, Canes, three and a half, we're showing three and a half, fifty two and a half. There's three's out there with extra juice on a Canes tonight. How do you, how do you view this game that what I said earlier was, I mean, at some point

39:10the Ole Miss lack of coaching like two, two more coaches gone now, kind of has to matter I think. I bet Miami. I'm curious where you lie on this. Well, I thought it was going to matter in the sugar bowl and it did not. For the first time in what, seventy five consecutive games, Kirby smart lost a game when having the lead going into the fourth quarter, but we're not here to do an autopsy on some decisions in the fourth quarter. We're looking at the game tonight. I'll be honest, I don't have a bet on the side right now. With lean towards Ole Miss, I actually do think it's a decent live betting game, a little hint, hint, decent prime time. We'll be on the air watching it. But you know, for me, Gil, what I'm most curious about is the total and more specifically the first half. And I know first half, under's have kind of been the craze this postseason, twenty seven and sixteen by my count to the under. But I think what you're going to see in this game, especially in the first half is a team

40:10in Miami that is incredibly slow, wants to be methodical. I believe my guy Brett Cianci over at Pick Six previews has them as the fifth slowest pace of play amongst power four teams. That would be Miami. And then you have Ole Miss. They want to go, go, go, right there, up tempo, they want to run plays quickly. So I think you're going to get this kind of tug of war from a pay standpoint. So you're looking at what, twenty five and a half out there in the betting market from a first half standpoint. So I did bet some under first half. I think I got twenty six and a half, you know, look around. You might get this number to go up because the total is rising a little bit. Why I wouldn't play full game is what we saw Gil in the sugar bowl. This thing could get wild in the second half. And is there going to come a point in time where Miami has to abandon their script and maybe play a little bit more up tempo? Maybe be a little bit more aggressive because they have not had to be aggressive. And I think to the, you know, that's to the positive of Carson Beck.

41:13Don't make Carson Beck make risky throws. A lot of his throws have been shorter. They're leaning on Mark Fletcher. I expect Mark Fletcher to have a pretty big game here. So my main bet is first half under. But I did take a little dabble and this one, I'm just going to laugh when I'm watching the game. I took Carson Beck over five and a half rushing yards. This is an Ole Miss team that does not get to the quarterback very well. This is a Miami offensive line that is elite. Now Carson Beck, not the most fleet of foot gentlemen in the world. But you saw him extend some drives against Ohio State. And I always love in these big time games. Last year we saw Will Howard run for a season high in the national championship against Notre Dame. So can Carson Beck extend a couple of drives with his feet and get us over five and a half and as many of you know, the worry about rushing props in college when it comes to quarterbacks, sacks do count against your rushing number. So I do have a small play on over five and a half rushing yards for Carson Beck.

42:18Carson Beck who made all the plays he needed to in third down situations when we last saw him in the quarter finals, including by the way, one run, I believe for 11 yards, which would have got you over just on that play alone. So you just need one of those. You won't be able to talk to you before tomorrow night Indiana and Oregon with the Hoosiers, a three and a half point favorite against the ducks in the rematch, if you will, of the game earlier this year in Eugene, how do you see this? Yeah. I think that's the fun part about looking at what we saw back in October and how do we carry that over to what we'll see tomorrow night down in Atlanta. So you think back to the game in October, Oregon closes six and a half, seven point favorites. And Indiana goes out there, wins the game 30 to 20. And if you go back and you rewatch the game where you look at some of the advanced numbers from a guy like Bill Conley over at S P plus, the adjusted point spread was about 16 points in this game. Indiana dominated Oregon. There was a pick six in there that kind of skewed things in the fourth quarter in Indiana

43:18ultimately went right back down the field. Now when you look at the injuries now for Oregon, Davidson is out. That's their power back. So that's a big loss there for the Oregon duck. So that is certainly a concern for me when I look at, you know, a guy like Jordan Davidson who just had two touchdown runs in the orange bowl. I jumped in on the under in this one, you know, not feeling as confident, I guess as the market is pushing back now up to 48 and a half. I just, when I look at this game guys, I fully think it's just going to be an absolute war. Hagler herds is the right, you know, comparison where they're going to be in the middle of the ring just swinging at each other. But I think the defense of both of these teams, the physicality of both of these teams are going to be on display. You know, I'll compare it to last year's orange bowl. I went to Notre Dame Penn State. It was a low scoring first half and then the second half kind of got a little crazy. And that's always a concern too, right? Where in the fourth quarter, a little bit of desperation, you know, I lob Raven Steelers

44:23on Sunday night football. So I split my unit guys in this one took first half under 23 and a half full game under 47 and a half. Obviously you can get a better number now. Lean a little bit towards Oregon plus the points haven't gotten there yet. I was going to wait and see how this one ultimately goes. Does the money come in behind Indiana? Do we get a four? Do we get back to that four and a half we were? But right now what I'm heading into this game guys is a split unit play first half full game under Oregon and Indiana. One word answer, yes or no. Ridiculous to think this might have something to do with who ends up as the number one pick in the draft also between more and Mendoza based on ridiculous. Yes. But I think it will affect the betting market. Okay. There it is. I agree with that assessment. Ridiculous to think one game would. But yes. The betting market could get a failure. Thank you too. See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya.

45:24See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya. See ya.