A Numbers Game | January 7, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00This is Vsyn, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story they always do. This is a numbers game with Kill Out of Exander gone Vsyn. Our number two of a numbers game at Vsyn, these sports betting network, Vsyn.com, Game Plus, I-Hard Radio, YouTube TV, Series X of Channel 158 ever you're taking us in. This morning and any morning we appreciate Kill Out of Exander. Kelly Midland alongside producing number nine. So much more than a producer. So much more. What are some of your other roles? Bouncer. Bouncer. Make sure Danny gets the bathroom okay. That's right. That worked okay during the break. You know all the things. Check out the casino. Trying to figure out who's smoking weed in the casino this morning. Does all of it. Yeah. All of it. This is one of my favorite times a year because it's our- Aaron is kind enough to come quarterly with us on the numbers game. He also does the megapod once a year. But this is the the one that has gone back the furthest in podcast history. We used to do this on the betting dork podcast all the way back in 2011,

1:03which is his post playoff pre pre playoff pardon me post regular season appearance to discuss DVOA historicals and we'll get into awards in the second segment because he's an awards voter as well. He'll share whatever he's willing to about his thoughts on those ladies and gentlemen. Aaron shots the chief analytics officer over at FTN and for our purposes, the creator of DVOA, which of course, analyzes football on a play by play basis granular level against average league average on those particular plays all the way back to 1978. That's as far as they've gone back Aaron shots joining us now courtesy progressive guest line. Good morning Aaron. Happy New Year. Good morning. Happy 2026 to you. We appreciate it. So we were just chatting briefly off air. I love this because there are historical context categories that, you know, sometimes some years, the barely any of them for all the 32 teams this year. Is this the most ever where you can kind of put stuff in top 10s historically?

2:06I mean, since I started doing it and looking back historically, this is the most I can remember where there were teams that were all like top 10 run offense and top 10 best teams to make the play out worst teams to make the playoffs or whatever. Like there's tons of them. Yes. Okay. Well, let's start by just showing. Here's your top 10 best DVOA teams from this year of 2025 the NFL. Seahawks. Right. Edge the Rams at the top. And then I guess that the interesting ones Aaron that people will be like really. The Lions. I think some people will be like, okay, I can kind of see that third best. Colts fifth best. What say you about that one? The first thing I should point out is this is for the entire season. So this is not weighted towards the second half of the year. If you waited towards the second half of the year. Now the Jaguars are third. The Patriots are fourth and the Colts are 13th. Okay.

3:06There you go. There's a collapse. The Colts were super ridiculously strong in the first half of the year. And then completely collapsed, especially once Daniel Jones got hurt. How did the bears end up with the weighted DVOA? In weighted, the bears are 10th. Okay. I think that I think that trash. So the bears also were better in the second half of the year. Like the Patriots and the Jaguars. Yes. Okay. It's still amazing to me though. How good the Colts were in the first half of the season to still stay to remain here at the end of the season. Do you remember a collapse? They were number one after week eight when they were seven and one. They were number one at that point. And then everything was downhill from there. Just on memory. Do you remember a collapse like that from one half of the year to the other? I mean, there have been teams in the past. There was a year that San Diego started 4 and 0 or something and ended up like six and 10 or something. Yeah. So there have been collapses in the past, but this is a pretty big one.

4:08All right. So let's go to the historicals because there's so many of them this year. So we just mentioned Seahawks and Rams are one, two and DVOA for the entire season. Historical all the way back to 1978 as we have said many, many times. Two thousand seven Patriots. 1991 skins. 1985 Super Bowl shuffle bears. One, two, three epic NFL teams. Where do you have these Seahawks and Rams ranked historically? Shockingly high. The Seahawks are seventh and the Rams are ninth. And I know there's some skepticism about this because the fact is that for the last couple of years, I have had these teams extraordinarily historically high. It's not something that happened between 2011 and 2021. And then for the last four years, we've had these historically high teams that haven't won the Super Bowl. But if you look at the Seahawks and the big wins they had over other good opponents and they are the best defense in the league. I mean, maybe you argue with me. Maybe you think they're the second best defense in the league.

5:09They were a great offense for the first half of the year. The offense is really kind of declined since then. They're the second best special teams. This is a really great all-around team, the Seahawks. I know we're all questioning the quarterback, but as far as regular season performance, this was a great all-around team. And the Rams right up there too. And that for the powerful offense, the Rams and all of their losses were very close. And that and you you're okay with that. Your eye test tells you that sounds reasonable to you that they are top 10 teams of all time since 78. That is. No, I don't know. I test wise, there are other teams I probably put a little bit higher but I'd have them like top 20. You know, when you go back and you look at some of the teams from the 90s, you would be surprised how many close games teams like the 92 Cowboys played. Yeah. Like we think of them as being ultra super dominant. But they didn't have as many blowout wins as we remember. I think that's such a great point. Our memory does purge those.

6:10Now there were some historically bad units, which I think it's fascinating to worst offense is in history. So let's forget about full teams. Let's just focus on the offensive unit. Where did which is our historical from this year? The Cleveland Browns were the number nine worst offense. Wow. And the Las Vegas Raiders were the number seven worst running game. Sorry, eight. Number eight worst running game. Despite drafting a running back sixth overall, who broke a lot of tackles. Yes. It was not Astrid Genti's fault. Oh, not Astrid Genti's fault. It was the line. How many tackles can you break in the back? That's what he said when they driving. Why don't you guys draft the guy that no one can tackle. He was right about that. All right, worst defenses. Who historically from this year landed in the top 10. Dallas Cowboys. Yeah. Were the fourth worst DVOA defense ever?

7:10How, how quick do you think that interview with Jerry Jones and, uh, Eberfluss went at the end of the year? Three seconds. Matt. I don't think I have to say anything. We're moving on. But they weren't. They were not the worst past defense this year. They were not the worst past defense because the jets with their ridiculous zero interceptions were the second worst past defense since 1978. The jets. Only the 1981 Baltimore Colts had a worst past defense DVOA. The 2025 jets are an astonishing team. They were number one in special teams. One of the best special teams units ever. If you take out special teams and you only look at offensive defense, they were the third worst team I've ever measured. Wow. So the New York jets.

8:10They had the, so let's just review that again. The jets had the. The one, two, three, four out of six. Best special teams. Historically ever. And they had all kinds of punt returns and kickoff returns. Touchdowns. The second worst past defense ever. And so end up if you take out the special teams, you're saying they're the third worst team period ever. That's incredible. 30th. They were 30th in all offense and 31st in defense this year. And if you take out the special teams, the only teams that were worse were the 05 49ers and the 91 Colts. Oh man. And here I thought the Falcons were the most confusing team of the season. I guess not. Well, the Falcons and Panthers were confusing because you never knew who they were going to win or lose. That's right. You're the jets. You knew they were going to score a punt return touchdown and lose in every other fashion. Where they get back to back also punt return kickoff return. I believe touchdowns in one game as well. They also had great punting and kicking like everything about special teams was good for them.

9:11Well, you got that to lean on New York jets fans. All right. Best total. So we had teams with losing records. We had a team with a losing record this year. But at the top of the heave. Oh, you may have already mentioned them. The best losing record team of all time. The Colts had the best DVOA ever for a team with a losing record. So passing the 1990 San Diego chargers. Wow. Do we have a most of the teams on this list were better the next year. Except for the 1990 San Diego chargers who were 4 and 12 the next year. Oh, no. Did we have another losing team on this board as well from this year? Baltimore Ravens. The Baltimore Ravens were one of the best losing teams ever. Goodbye, John Harbaugh. Wow. All right. This is a little. This is a little different because we're not talking about losing record now necessarily. But how about best total DVOA to miss the playoffs? Yep. The 2025 lions were number seven on that list and the 2025 Colts are number 10.

10:15This is an amazing year. Like this is for people who are just tuning in for the first time. You never have this many categories with top 10 historicals. This is incredible. No, it's kind of crazy. And it's fun. You know, I always love to history. You talk about the best teams to miss the playoffs. You get to talk about things like 91 49ers. We're Steve Bono ended up as the quarterback for most of the year. And it's great. Historical discussion of the NFL. It's crazy how many of these extremes there were in 2025. Just really crazy. All right, this one isn't an Aaron shots DVOA over at FTN sports, by the way, which we'll get into how you can get all of Aaron stuff here momentarily. But biggest Pythagorean other performer. So this is like the old baseball bill James thing points scored points given up. Who is the biggest under performer? The chiefs are the fifth biggest Pythagorean under performer since 1970, which is wild because last year they were the biggest Pythagorean overachiever since 1970. Wow.

11:15I forgot about that. Interesting. Yeah. They went from overachiever to underachiever in a ridiculously extreme fashion. All right. Last one before we go to the awards after the break. Easiest schedule. Patriots. Where did they land? Third easiest schedule since 1978. But the two teams with easier schedules were the 91 bills and the 99 Rams. And both of those teams made the Super Bowl. And one of them won it if I'm not mistaken. One of them won it. Yeah. Rams won it. She's good. Home field is good. Hmm. So there you go. We might have had the easy schedule, but in the end. It didn't matter for those two clubs. Aaron shots on the other side. Coming back. Numbers game. Beeson. These sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools. And the discipline. And now so can you. Beeson pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use.

12:15No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit. With Beeson pro. Numbers game. On Beeson. These sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. Gill Kelly. In the house here at Circa. Aaron shots kind enough to join us for a second segment. The chief analytics officer over at FDN sports creator of DVOA. As we did a whole segment on the historicals was pretty amazing. And you can follow them on Twitter at a shots NFL. That's SCH ATZ a shots NFL. Aaron thanks for hanging out with us again. Tell everybody where they can find all your stuff at FDN. What's the easiest way? First of all, I should point out I'm on all the social medias. I'm also on the threads at a shots NFL and blue sky. Wow Aaron shots dot com.

13:16And FTN fantasy dot com you get an FTN fantasy subscription and you get all the DVOA splits. You can download all the historical numbers. You get all of our game charting so you get stats on. Man versus zone quarterbacks and you know how teams run versus stack boxes compared to other boxes and. Zone runs versus man runs ISO duo, etc. We track all this stuff. You get all of that with an FTN subscription and picks and fantasy and a bunch of new basketball stuff. People check the NBA stuff that we are doing right now. The NBA stats hub on FTN fantasy dot com is currently free for you to check out. And we have all kinds of new advanced charting and stats for the NBA. You got Kelly's ears per. I use FTN all the time. I think some great betting resources on there. I love the little prop shop where you can shop around for different books for the best prop numbers. And yeah, I have not seen the new NBA stuff yet. Aaron. So you've got me excited. Check that out. Check it out.

14:16Absolutely. Aaron also happens to be one of 50 voters for the Associated Press NFL awards. I was telling the story. Aaron earlier with you me you Kelly Matt Brown. We're all all out of carbon when the award came down or the vote announcement came down for MVP a couple years ago. We all remember that very well. You voted for you voted against Lamar that year, but you were one of the few who voted for Lamar last year. So it was just a reverse thing. Let's talk about MVP for this year. The betting market just for your own interest because I'm not even sure if you follow this kind of stuff. Matthew Stafford minus 204 Drake May plus 156. What are your thoughts as a voter? I would be shocked if it's unanimous this year. Okay. I think it's going to be between these two guys. I will now make an argument for each one. Okay. The argument for Matthew Stafford is that Drake May's schedule was a phenomenally easy. And you may have seen something going around the internet about how if you look at the ranks of EPA.

15:21Drake May didn't actually face a heart, an easier schedule than Stafford. I don't know where that comes from. If you look at actual EPA itself, this is not my staff, right? This is EPA that's more public. Drake may played the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses in the league. And Matthew Stafford's ranked 14th. So it was basically average by my stats. It's even more of a difference may played the easiest schedule of past defenses in the league. Stafford's was the fourth hardest by DVOA. You've got to understand how bad the jets and dolphins and bills defenses were this year. Really bad, especially the jets. Now, let me make the case in the other way. Puka, Nikula. If you subtract the top wide receiver from each player. Drake May comes out even after adjusting for schedule. Even after adjusting for schedule. If you subtract a Puka, Nikula and Stefan Diggs may come out as much better.

16:26Stafford's season worked very heavily Puka, Nikula. Which makes for a great transition to offensive player of the year. Where it is a foreheaded monster between Jackson Smith and Jigba. The aforementioned Puka, Nikula, Christian McCaffrey is in there as well. There's also Bijan Robinson who put up ridiculous stats for the Atlanta Falcons. Your thoughts on this, Jackson Smith and Jigba, by the way. A massive favorite in the betting market, which really doesn't jive with the stats versus Puka's. Yes, Christian McCaffrey had the third best season in receiving value for running back by my numbers. Only behind two martial flock seasons, but he had a terrible season as a runner. Terrible. Next gen stats has this rush yards over expectation thing. And he was negative, negative like wow. Puka had the best wide receiver value season ever by my numbers passing Cooper Cup four years ago. Obviously having the extra game helps, although Puka did miss a game.

17:27You add in, you know, he had the better receiving stats and then you add in he had 10 runs for 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But Jackson Smith, the Jigba was part of an offense that passed last. So Smith, the Jigba was a bigger part of his own offense than Nuku was. So again, this is a difficult award to pick. Is Bijan even even in the mix in your opinion? No, I apologize to Bijan Robinson, but I don't think that he'll be in the mix yet. He had a great season and you put five guys down on your ballot. So I mean, in that way, he's in the mix, but I don't think he's going to get a lot of number one. I mean, I don't appreciate me saying this, but if the whole idea here is for better sort of read between the lines. It feels by those last two dissertations that Aaron might be gravitating towards Puka. I don't know, but I'm just saying it feels like you might you might be talking Puka there. NFL defensive player there, we don't need to talk about this, right? Miles Garrett. It's Miles Garrett.

18:27Yeah. Okay. Who's second? The only thing to talk about is the appreciation that we all now have of Al Baker, who unofficially also had 23 sacks as a rookie in 1978. So yay, Al Baker. We didn't count stats back then, did we? Sorry. No, they didn't count stacks officially. Yeah. All right. Here's one NFL offensive rookie of the year. Ten aerobic millen is this massive favorite when the betting markets closed on this. Jackson Dart Tyler Schuck. Uh, now in that order. Uh, distant second and third shots in this and then there's Travion who's fourth. Your thoughts here. Yeah, Mike, two through five picks on this are going to blow people's minds. Oh, really? So are you suggesting that three of these four names will not appear on your ballot at all? I think the number one guy for this award is pretty obvious. Oh, wow. Does it rhyme with Federoa Fick-Fillin? Mighty chance. Okay.

19:27It might. Don't answer. Okay. Interesting. That's a pretty interesting comment there. Aaron is one of 50 to percent of the whole vote NFL defensive rookie of the year. The betting market has had Carson Schwesinger as the guy for a long time. Is it that clear to you? Yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay. I like the pregnant pause. By the way, that's drama. I like that. I'm saying here, go on. You know, you're not supposed to talk about who you voted for. Yeah. I mean, I don't think I'm really giving a lot of way. Meena doesn't have any problem with it. Meena's out there. They're giving hers out. Yeah, I'm surprised, man. They're going to call me up and tell her not to do that. She's all about it. All right. This is maybe the one that I think I'm the most fascinated by. I think I speak for Kelly. This award is impossible. This award is impossible to pick. Okay. We're talking about Coach of the year. How many guys are in the mix in your brain right now? For me seven. Oh, man. We're in the mix. There's a couple of others that honestly have good arguments.

20:29That I didn't consider. Really? Who are those? Yeah. We talk about like the Sean Payton's of the world. Make a Ryan. Make a Ryan. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's a. Shana hands in there. Carolina guy. Uh, panelists. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. I mean, it's the most. But right now, verbal, by the way, the favorite, but Mike McDonald lurking. Um, Liam Cohen, Ben Johnson. I consider all four of these guys. I consider three other guys like it. It's. This is a hard. This is such a hard award. Is this the one where you only make your choice right before you submit? Kind of thing. Uh, no, this one I made my choice. Week 18. You know, yeah, I pretty much made my choice before that. You made your choice. Okay. Well, so what was most difficult? 40, 40 Aaron. Was it, uh, was it rookie, rookie of the year? Or was it coach of the year? Oh, no, no, no. The most difficult is coach. Okay.

21:29Most difficult is coach of the year. So many good guys who deserve it. So many good guys who deserve it. Okay. I want to follow up on that. But I won't out of respect. Come back player of the year. Christian McCaffrey. This is, of course, the weirdest award in terms of our recent history with the wording. And how they had to change. Or they had to really crystallize the definition of what this is. Christian McCaffrey becomes the, uh, or has been. The prohibitive favorite in this Trevor Lawrence lurks, though, DAC Phillip Rivers, Chris Olave, rounding out our top five here. You're pretty clear on this or no? No, this was a hard one also. I think some of the question is, doesn't matter that Phillip Rivers, uh, was not good because it's a great story. It's a great story. It's absolutely a comeback. Like you didn't come back from an injury, but that's absolutely a comeback. That's what this award is for, but he wasn't good. Yeah. So that sounds to me like you considered it, but then maybe not so much once the performance happened. You know, you do get five spots on your balance.

22:30Okay. All right. So it's not going to be what it feels like, but he'll be on the ballot. It sounds like, um, okay, Aaron, I appreciate it. That's very, you're as transparent as, as you were able to be. I appreciate that. I think there is a, there's enough to read between the lines on a lot of that stuff. Again, just one of 50 voters. I'll remind everybody again, FTN, the, the place that they should go. FTN's URL or Twitter or wherever FTN fantasy.com. That is the main URL FTN fantasy.com and definitely check out the stats hub. Check out the goat subscription. All the new basketball stuff at the basketball stats hub at FTN fantasy.com. And the, like you said, the, the prop bet tool that gives you your best odds for different prop bets. Your favorite wild card play is what, by the way, 10 seconds. My favorite wild card play is probably the Patriots over the Chargers. That's three and a half. Okay. Aaron, thank you so much, man. Always a pleasure. So great. Appreciate it. I'll see you later. Aaron shots everybody, creator of DVOA. Coming back on a numbers game right here at Visa.

23:36A numbers game on FESEN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. Live from Circus, Orcasina, Gil Alexander, Kelly Billy. As well, Ty Simpson, Malabama. Make himself eligible for the draft. Here about this. Ty Simpson, Malabama. Who had to leave the game the other night with the injury. But had a great season for Alabama. You still have eligibility left? I believe he did, right? Yeah, absolutely. But otherwise you don't have to really declare. Oh, yeah. Good point, I guess. And by the way, when you declare, I do believe it is required for you to say, I do declare at the end of the sentence. I don't know if I'd be rushing for the NFL draft with that ending to the season. Well, he got hurt. It's a tough image to get out of it. How do you get my mind at least? We get tweets that beat in the book, Mike Zill's Duke 90. The awards aren't over until we say they're over. Signed Senator Paul Blutarski from the Animal House. Nothing is over until we decide it is. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

24:37I believe it was long. Billy Shakes. It pays to listen after the great Chris Velika gave a heads up. My book did not have the four to one make miss posted on Miami. So on December 5th, I got the Keynes at 121. 120 to one to win at all. Taking a big piece of Ole Miss at plus three and a half. Does laying mine is 210 to get plus seven and a half as well. Create too much delusion. I wouldn't do that. Parts just do this plus three and a half. Yeah, I fully approve your plus three and a half though. Get both on. Los Vegas 514, yo. It ain't over. Party's not over. Guy groove me. My personal favorite guy song, Ask Young Kelly. What his favorite guy song is. Yeah, I quoted guy earlier on the show. What I said, I ain't over. I quote guys all the time on the show. It's your favorite guy song. No, no, no. I'm getting nothing. I like. Sure. You can call me crazy. Ryan Hyatt. Looking at having a fine meal of chili cheese dogs and tater tots later this week. Can you get Drew on? Drew Denson can see what wines or cocktails pair well with this. It will be a bold chili with spicy ketchup on the tots. Thanks in advance for the help. Want this to be a special night for my wife.

25:38Well, you are quite the romancer, Ryan Hyatt. For spicy ketchup. For his lemon. Biddling correct. Captain Crunch peanut butter over Reese is a hundred out of a hundred times. Yeah, it's not even close. Three Jack H3131 Greg way off base on his cereal. Take Reese's puffs away to crunchy. Can't hear myself think while I eat cocoa pebbles. Delivers the right amount of crunch flavor and of course sugar. Brendan S. Just yesterday was at my local Costco. And on the end of the aisle I had to make a conscious decision to pass on the frosted flakes. I legitimately said to myself, it wouldn't last until the weekend. Right. It kept moving. It will however cave next time. I will however cave next time. Brendan. I'm with you man. Do the same thing. I void that whole aisle because it's the same way. I crack open that box and before I know I've had four bowls of cereal. And Chris Heath. I locked in three of Greg's fab five. I got a little excited. I wasn't able to punch him a punch in the last two. Wow, my heart rate. We're going fast on the fab five. It'll all be up a visa.com. We'll repeat. He's got more than five. Go to visa.com. Yeah. We'll have more. We'll recap the five later on the show. Sixteen Danny Higgins tells me. Sixteen picks on visa.com slash picks.

26:39Many more tweets to get to. But we want to bring in Nick Whalen from Roto Wire. Nick is always kind enough to join us at this hour every week on a Wednesday. Nick is a senior writer over there at Roto Wire. Join us courtesy the progressive guest line. You follow him on Twitter at Whalen. Just replace the L with the number one. Nick. Good morning, sir. This must be quite the week for you as a Jaguars fan, man. It is. We are in unfamiliar territory to say the least, you know, it's kind of this, this age old debate that I've been having with everybody in my life. It was basically a green Bay Packers fan of. Okay. Is it better to be, you know, in the Packers situation where you're in it every year, but you're setting yourself up for likely disappointment every season or the Jaguars who are never in these spots and you never have to get up for a big game. But you're also never let down in the way that other fan bases are. The stakes have not been this high for the Jaguars in quite some time. I mean, I along, you know, myself, along with everybody else who's talking about this game seems to think Jacksonville. You know, is being disrespected as a, a home underdog against this bill's team. I understand the line, you know, it, the Josh Allen factor alone.

27:42I think it's going to drive a lot of the market around this game. But it's scary guys. It is scary for me to, to look at this game, try to be as objective as. I can and just keep come away coming away thinking Jacksonville's the better team on both sides of the ball. They're the team I trust board defensively. You know, Josh Allen versus Trevor Lawrence. Of course, you're going to give the edge to Josh Allen just in terms of pure quarterback play. But I think everything around Trevor Lawrence, the way that this Jags offense is running right now. Feel superior to Buffalo. But to me, it's going to come down to can the Jags run defense play at the same level that it has throughout the season. Can they force Josh Allen to try to beat them with Khalil Shakir and Dalton concade and X Jaguar gave Davis. In this game because the Jags run defense has not allowed even a 75 yard rusher on the year. James Cook rushing prop for this game is sitting around 80 and a half. If they can hold him under that, I think that's going to make things really, really uncomfortable for the bills. And you know that the total in this game's up to 52 and a half guys. So the implication is that we are getting a Trevor Lawrence Josh Allen shoot out.

28:45We'll see. I don't know if that's necessarily the type of game that the Jaguars want to play. Let's go. Jags. I got bets on the Jags too. Come on. I really disrespect you too. I don't know if that's the type of game the bills want to play either. I haven't bet that yet, Nick, but I've been kind of staring at that too. Like if this is, if this goes the bills way, right? It's a lot of James Cook running the ball, right? Like ball control offense. And that's what it feels like to me. I might end up on this under. If I take your Jags fan hat off and I say, what's the besides that game? What's the one is the most interest to you to watch and to bet? What would you say? The most interest to me to watch. I think has to be Packers bears. Like there is just so much at stake here. It's the the rare playoff game where I think each team's fan base. 100% feels like they're winning this game. And there's 100% confident, you know, even with how both teams ended the season. There's kind of going in with the Wimper Green Bay has been terrible for the last month. I think this sets up as about the best matchup you could ask for.

29:45If you're the Packers given their spot, you know, you've lost four in a row. You lose another key player. It feels like every single week, the vibes are horrible. People are talking about this as a, you know, a must win game for Matt LaFour. And yet at some books, you're favored, you know, two seven matchup against a team that you've already beaten when you were closer to full strength and then should have beaten again with no Michael Parsons. And with no Jordan love for the majority of that game. So the stakes are just incredibly high in that game because you know, Green Bay loses all the sudden. It's, oh my goodness, we've lost two in a row to the Bears. It feels like there's an official changing of the guard in the division. We've owned this team for the last 20 years. And now maybe we don't. And if Green Bay wins, you know, then it, it just kind of throws cold water on what's been a really fun and really exciting Chicago Bears season. So that's the game I'm most excited to watch on Saturday. And then I think Chargers Patriots is going to be really interesting kind of a contrast in styles. You know, I think both teams should actually feel pretty good about this matchup. You know, we've talked about the Chargers all year as this team that, you know, once they lost for Sean Slater and then Joe Walt on top of that, it was okay.

30:46You know, there's probably a defined ceiling on this team. Maybe they could win a wild card game. That's probably about it. I think this is actually kind of a good matchup for them. This Pat's team doesn't generate a ton of pressure. They're basically a league average run defense. They're 31st in hurry percentage 26th and overall pressure rates. And that's while blitzing at an above average clip. So I don't think this is a spot where you're overly concerned about missing those tackles. And of course, the Chargers defense is played as well as NED over the last two months here. So I think that's a really interesting one to watch partially because, you know, of course New England has been dominant. They've had a great end of the season. You got to go all the way back to week eight guys. That was the last time that the New England Patriots face state team that was anywhere near the top 10 in terms of defense. I agree with with you and picking those games, especially that Patriots Chargers game. I think it's a fascinating. Fascinating game to break down and see that Patriots scheduled. Does it manifest Chargers to me are better than the market believes they are. So that'll be interesting. Let's go to the NBA. Six and six, the thunder since they're 24 and one start.

31:48They are now plus money to win the title that catches your eye. It's interesting. It's interesting because there's discussion like a month ago. It's like, well, it's a thunder at minus 220. Is that a value right now? Should we bet that? Is that number going to go down at any point? And I don't think anybody thought we would see this kind of mid season malaise from from OKC. But look, I think now would be the time to buy in on the thunder. I think the larger sample still suggests that this is pretty easily the best team in the NBA. Even with the thunder sitting at plus money, there's a reason that you have to go all the way to eight to one before you find the nuggets 12 to one for San Antonio. You know, what the spurs have been able to do specifically against OKC. I think has been a little bit alarming, but it's not even a guarantee that that would be a matchup in the playoffs. You know, the spurs still have to kind of navigate their way through this big four in the west that includes Houston and Denver. So I think this is probably the best price that we'll see on OKC. And you know, they've been pretty aggressive in terms of, you know, giving guys nights off. It feels like they have two or three rotation players out every single night.

32:50I think they will issue a reminder at some points over the second half that, yes, they are still heading shoulders above the rest of the NBA. All right. And then NBA tonight, just in the interest of time, you lean under in the Dubs bucks game. Yeah, looking at the under 230 and a half there. I mean, nine of the last 11 Milwaukee bucks games have gone under this number. You know, Milwaukee's 27th and offensive rating over the last 10 games warriors have not been a whole lot better. Both of these teams are playing slowly right now, especially Milwaukee. And the bucks have not really played anybody. They played a lot of mediocre teams, a lot of bad defenses over their last six or seven games. So I think this is a spot where Milwaukee in particular could struggle offensively. And they're taking a look as well, guys. It's to find castle tonight over 17 and a half points against the Lakers. It's a back to back for both teams. Unclear of liberal, I'll be out there. I don't know if women Yama is going to play, but this Lakers team is terrible on defense. Don't let the Pelican scoring 103 last night. Fool you. Pels went 10 of 40 from three in that game. Hey, random to make Miss the playoffs warriors, pardon me, who are 19 and 18 or minus 550 to make the playoffs.

33:56The Clippers who are 13 and 22 are plus 220. You think those numbers are off? I think so. I think so. And look, the the Kawaii injury potential is probably baked into that line. I get that, but there's just not that big of a difference to me right now between those teams. Clippers are only two and a half games out of the 10 right now if they make the play in. I think that's still a really, really dangerous team in a one game setting. So just something to note right now looking at the futures market. Nick, appreciate it very much. Thank you. Good luck to the Jags. Thank you. Minze a lot. Coming back. A numbers game on FISA. These sports betting network on match transparency with records updated daily AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information and alerts directly from the pros. The sharp plays. Scan the QR code for more. Pardon me or check them out at sharp plays dot com not V sharp plays just sharp plays dot com.

35:02We get sweet speed in the book. Y'all the best listeners in the game. This is from at Shrek McFee who says Opelka had 44 aces and lost. What? It's incredible. And this is the problem with it. By the way, tennis picks, decent dot com slash picks, Zach's tennis picks, my tennis picks went two and two last night. Slight win with the big plus 157 dog winning. Coleman Wong against Diallo. But I, my numbers just give you an idea about Riley O'Pelka. He's one of these serve bots. 610 massive server, not much of a game beyond that is sort of the hack way of describing his game. But my numbers often lead me to fading him. But I don't do it because of what you just described to Shrek McFee, which is he can always go serve bot 44 aces. My God. How do you lose that? It's incredible. The numbers, guys, Gill Kelly, so right about the peanut butter cap and crunch being far superior to Reese's puffs and give Kelly another gold star for pronouncing Reese's properly.

36:03These clowns who call it Reese's are demented. I hate those people. Reese's. Yeah, some people say Reese's. I guess I've noticed that one as much. Reese's. One last tweet from IO. He says the Ravens are looking for a coach to reach and vigorate and vigorate Lamar. The Ravens next coach should be were given Derek Henry 400 Russian attempts next year. Henry or tires after next year Lamar has been reached and then and then vigorate. And then Ben Handorf. And we got a react to Aaron shots and say, well, I know we brought in a quail. But Ben Handorf says what I'm gathering from Aaron spot on the jets is that Chris Banjo should be getting some head coach interviews considering how elite his unit was. John Harbo immediately comes to mind as an elite head coach that got their start in the NFL as a special teams coach. Yeah, Chris Banjo wouldn't be surprised if Aaron puts them on the ballot. That's the point. I'm going to win it, but I wouldn't be surprised. We have to react Aaron shots. We have a lot to react to here of all the awards stuff. What was the most interesting to you? Well, well, there was a lot interesting, right?

37:05This is whenever you get to talk to someone who actually votes. It's not it's not just getting insight into what the general voters mindset might be at the current moment, right? Because we all how often do we talk about? We don't know what these odds actually mean, right? So it's great to get just basic general insight. But then, you know, I think very specific, right? He holds 2% of the power. This is 2% of the outcome from one man. So the one I wanted to see as I know I told you off, Eric, I think Aaron shots has been great. And what really got me angry last year over come back player of the year and the rules being passed down. I think Aaron shots has been exactly what you would want with a voter in by the book with following those rules. And guidelines that were handed down. And the one I think there could be some reaction to was him bringing up Philip Rivers. We questioned him on the about come back player of the year. This is going to sound like it was 12 years ago. But Darren Waller came out of retirement to play for the dolphins earlier in the season.

38:08I think it was Aaron's first, the first quarterly hit we did with him. I asked him, we asked him about that. You know, how would you treat someone coming out of retirement? And he was very clear that that was a different story to him than what Sam Darnold was a year ago. And the whole coming back from sucking. If you're coming out of retirement, he was going to treat that very differently. So I don't think it was still interesting for me to hear go. I'm not floored or shocked, though, to hear him say, you know, hey, Philip Rivers, probably going to be sober on that ballot. Well, but what it did say to us is that he considered Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers had done really amazing things on the field. If he had been flacco-esque, if you were from a few years ago, he would have probably leaned towards voting on him. But he didn't do anything Philip Rivers didn't. So he'll be on the ballot, but he won't win it from Aaron's ballot. I thought the coach of the year thing was fascinating. He had struggled with coach of the year more than anything. That's not a surprise, but it did sort of sound to me like when he said, I'm just reading between the lines.

39:11It sounded to me like when he said he made his decision before week 18 that he's voting for Abel. That's what it sounds like to me. Yeah, you're probably right. The biggest thing on all that though for me was offensive player of the year. And his conversation about both MVP and offensive player of the year. The common element was Puka. It sounds to me like he's voting Puka for offensive player of the year. I could be wrong, but that's what it sounded like to me, which tracks with what I was saying yesterday of the day before when these lines were still up. That's the single most misprice thing going. Puka being 13 to 1 is completely off. I don't know if he's going to win, but it felt to me like Aaron Schatz was on board with Puka. Now what I'd have to relisten to. I guess I didn't take away that same thing, but I'm just reading between the lines. That's what we're doing. Oh, and the last thing that was fascinating to me. As I place it was fascinating to me too. Okay, I just, I just bet I'm telling you right now. I just bet Puka to win offensive player of the year at Calche for big money.

40:14Like it in terms of the odds you get on that. He's like at 7%. I went Puka. I've already been leaning betting it that way, but now Aaron is like, yes, just follow my instig on it. The other fascinating thing I thought Kelly was when it came to offensive rookie of the year. I was just thinking, what are we forgetting? He said, he said, I've got my number one. And my number two through five will shock people. And that's when we were showing him the board. So what that sounded to me like was he had his number one definitively. And the three of these four are the guys whose we're showing 10 Macmillan, Jackson, three of those four guys that sounded to me aren't even going to be on his ballot. That was the most interesting thing. It was, it was interesting. It was interesting. I don't think it's, it's not stunning to me that this is going to be. I mean, like offensive rookie of the year coach of the year. I mean, coach of the year winner. How you, I would love to see how the orders come down for offensive rookie of the year, right?

41:15Because we've talked, we've talked about it. All these guys, it felt very, very much like they all had a three week stretch during the season. And none of them really ended all that great, right? Except for Tyler Schuck, I guess. And so I think it's really fascinated to see how these guys are even going to be ordered by people. Man, if you, I mean, let's just, but look, that's fast. It, let's just say it's Ted, Tedero Macmillan. Yeah. I don't know that that's the guy. Yeah. But let's say it was him. That means that, like, Dart, Schuck and Traveon, none of them are going to be two through five. Not that that matters. It's like whoever was like, I don't know what is the reflection that the market may not in any way represent these voters. I mean, I don't want to be like, I also, like, also people have different, like Nick Whalen brought this up about Tyler Schuck, right? Like, there's very little precedent for a guy who's played in that few games to get to get this award. He brought this up a couple of weeks ago. And I thought it was a fair point. You just, you don't know how people are going to view that, right? Like, some people might think about that. Maybe even more strongly than Nick, the Nick does and just throw Tyler Schuck out completely. Like, I'm not voting for a guy at all.

42:15I've played that few games. I've made the case that his stats aren't as good as Jackson Darts. He should be thrown out just based on that box out. And then the one that, the one that I feel like I've gotten a lot of pushback on is like, I don't think Traveon Henderson really belongs in this conversation at all. No, I agree. Like, he, he's a part of a two back system. Yeah. I said, yeah. In all those guessing launches, I said Ramandre apart, winning more times than I said. I mean, did he have a couple amazing ones and amazing games? Yes, he did. Absolutely. But like, I think, I think Egg Buka and even Tyler Warren have had more of him overall impressive seasons than him. Love having Aaron on. Can we squeeze in a win total Wednesday? Let's do it. Win total Wednesdays. Bang! Are the guys looking over or under? It's another edition of Win total Wednesday on a numbers game. Are you, are you, are you mad at me for trying to squeeze in? No, that's fine. That's fine. You go first or me first? Here's your tennis. All right. Tennis real quick. I did make a couple tennis bets on an, on a off the grid skin.

43:18Okay. Yannick center to win three grand slams this year in tennis. Three out of the four, I bet it at plus four fifty. Yannick center to me, obviously a two head monster on the ATP tour. Carlos breaks off with Juan Carlos Ferrer, his coach. I got Yannick to win three grand slams at plus four fifty. And I took Ega, the great Ega Shviantec to win two grand slams at plus three fifty. Again, you have to win exactly that amount for these prices, too, because she's always going to be the French open favorite. And then win that, win one other plus three fifty only. So glad you said that note. I don't know why I was assuming it was three plus and two plus. So it's, it's exactly. If Yannick wins four and Ega wins three, I lose. You've lose my, that's right. Yeah. All right, I like that. I'll pull I, when you sent these this morning to I'm going to pull I'm going to pull in some more season long tennis and golf props for us to hit. We'll go country club and later in the week or Thursday or Friday. I did dive into some NBA ones a little bit yesterday. Wanted to bring these up. These are kind of three there on my radar and one that I'm going to bet.

44:20And it's fine that we're a little short on time. It is that top one trailblazers. I will be betting over if you're looking at these numbers at home. These are numbers that I pulled yesterday because I knew I wasn't going to plan on betting any of them yesterday. Lakers and pelicans played last night. Obviously the blazers over thirty seven and a half. We're going to, we're going to wait on this skill. Why are we going to wait? This is like the, this is like the hold. The hold. Hold cancel. Go. What are you guys? Ratsport. Rats guys. This is the, the hold. Okay, because we have games against the Houston Rockets, the Houston Rockets, the New York Knicks and then at Golden State Hold. Are the next four. We're going to hold. Yeah. After that point, February 14th is where we're going to look jump in. Second easiest remaining strength, the schedule. Through holiday, scoot Henderson likely back at some point. Scoot. This team, 21 wins gets them over the hump of thirty seven and a half if you're staring at that. I really like that one. We'll be betting it to other strong leans. Lakers under defense as a nightmare. Pelicans over.

45:20War and sharp. Next. All the numbers game at Mason. These sports betting network.