A Numbers Game | January 7, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00The numbers told the story they always do. Swandals, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gill Ivexander gone V-Send. And stay morning tune is a Numbers Game at V-Send. These sports betting network, V-Send.com, Game Plus, Ihard Radio, YouTube TV, Series X and Channel 150-Gate. Any which way you take a sip we appreciate it on this... Wednesday of Wild Car Weekend, Gill Ivexander, Kelly Midland, in the house here at Circa. Good morning. You good? I'm great. Beautiful Wednesday morning in Las Vegas. It is. Beautiful Wednesday morning, Will Hill will join us momentarily, give all his plays, talk college football semis, obviously Wild Car Weekend in the NFL, whatever else he's betting, Greg Peterson on college hoops, a bit as Michigan wins yesterday, but who survived against Penn State? Certainly. Yeah, what they win by two, one by two, who survived a three at the end, I believe. Like? Did not cover. Did not cover.

1:00Yeah, just shy cover. Just shy cover. Of the 20 and a half, which we had at that day, we got up to 24 by tip off. Aaron Shots joined some, I'm bearing the headline with apologies to Greg and Will. Aaron Shots with his annual appearance this hour. He comes to us quarterly here on a numbers game. He also does the Megapod once a year, but he comes to us quarterly on a numbers game to sort of give us a DVOA update, his thoughts on awards. This is his final one of the year, which is always the post regular season pre playoffs. Here's what was the historical DVOAs on these teams. Here's what I think about the awards, or at least what he's willing to share about what he thinks about the awards. Again, he represents 2% of the entire voting body with all these. The guy who famously, Kelly, when you me and Matt Brown went out to dinner with Aaron Shots, we'll never forget. We'll never forget it. They announced that Lamar Jackson had won the MVP. So this is two years ago. We announced that he won the MVP one vote shy of unanimous.

2:00And Aaron was the guy who did not vote for him. And then last year he was the guy that voted for Lamar and no one else did. Well, not no one else, but he didn't know when you could easily make the argument that Shots had it right? Those two years and everybody else had it wrong. Correct. A little later Nick Whalen will join us. Win total Wednesdays. Warrant Sharp will join us. Wish Neves out today because wish Neves sick. So we can't have wish Neves today. Get better Todd. I started here because he runs himself into the ground, betting college hoops. You know the part, like I don't want to circle back to this dinner. I don't want pride. I don't want to talk too much with Aaron because he was, but I think people need to know this, right? Like some of these voters. Like we were thrilled to hear when Aaron Shots what became a voter and started as a voter because we knew that some of his numbers and analytics were going to be used and worked into his vote. Seeing how much he cared that night though. Like as someone who bets on these things was meaningful. I will put it that way. But I mean, he was obviously in a weird space

3:00when he was the only person right on that side. But seeing how much, like, that these guys should care as much as Aaron Shots did, that makes me feel better when I go to bet these things. Because how many times we throw our arms up and we're just like, bet awards. What are we thinking sometimes? We lost them for about five minutes. Yeah. He was still at the table, but he was lost and thought. But that was more about he knew, he knew the backlash that was going to come. He was correct. We then remember we were owned by draftings at the time. We did the radio row for the Super Bowl. He joined us a couple days later at radio row and talked about the online hate that he received for this. This is just a guy who's into analytics. A nerdy guy who's just pioneering football analytics made his vote based on his conscience. And in the end, he knew it was coming. It came and he just took it like a man. He was like, you know, that doesn't mean

4:00I didn't do it for all the right reasons. And I'm just like, whenever I think about that, it's, let's compare it to the 900 and 83 people who vote on the highest men who I know firsthand. Some don't even care about something. It's like, oh, let me just send it in. Let me just get it in. All right, so we'll talk to Aaron a little later on. The biggest news, of course, in football happened after the show yesterday when the the Baltimore Ravens fired John Harbaugh after 18 years. 18 years. One Super Bowl title in 18 years. I believe that's what Kanye said back in the day. John Harbaugh who had gotten six division titles and that one Super Bowl title in the Harbaugh if you will in 2012 against his brother Jim in the 49ers where Joe Flacco was the quarterback for the for the Ravens. Let go. And part of the, you know, part of the scuttlebutt afterwards. Can we say scuttlebutt? Yeah. Was that he lost the locker room? Not only lost Lamar Jackson, but lost the locker room.

5:01Read into that what you will. That's a very vague sort of catch all. We had talked about during the season that there were some rumors about Lamar falling asleep during meetings. I don't know if that's part and parcel with it as well. But anyway, they decided to see the shot of the Ravens. Eleanor decided this and it was time after after a few consecutive disappointments, right? The Zay flowers fumble. The mark Andrews drop and then the Tyler loop miss to not even make the postseason here against the sealage. You see that graphic. I think Tray Wingo. Tray Wingo posted this. I'm not sure if he made the graphic, but he posted this was the goal posts in the Baltimore Pittsburgh game, right? The back shot from from from the other side of the field as we as we always see field goals. And in between the goal post that said Mike Tomlin fired. And on each side of the goal post said John Harbour fire, which is to say that if that kick goes in, maybe it's Tomlin who goes and not Harbour. But anyway, that's how it is. And you can bet on who the Ravens next head coach will be at Kalshi. Jesse Minter is your short shot at plus 177.

6:04Thank you Kelly for putting these in sports fan mode. Sports fan mode. That's what Kalshi calls it. Sports fan mode because usually just percentages, right? I swear when I changed my settings five days ago, it was not called that. It was just like American odds. I'm pretty sure it was now. It says sports fan mode. It's fan mode because there's there's some there's some trader there. And Robin Hood just laugh at us. Oh, totally. Sports losers betting on this stuff. You lose a scoop up. I think you're going to win. Well, on this stuff you can. I bet Brian Flores yesterday. Brian Flores is three to one. Cliff Kingsbury ousted. Washington offensive coordinator, former Washington offensive coordinator as of yesterday. Plus 733. Then you see Stephanski and Kubiak who are rumored almost on all these jobs. Just over eight to one. Chris Shula's name has been bantied about. He's nine to one Robert Salah also in the mix at 10 to one. And here's the thing again with these prediction markets like Kalshi. These are a reflection of the actual bets that have been made. This is not some bookmaker, right?

7:04This is the difference. This is not some bookmaker making book. Being an odds maker. Nothing like that. This is the actual reflection of the of the bets that have been made. So my Brian Flores and in percentage. I was going from 17% to 23%. I have no inside information on this. I have no idea if Brian Flores is going to be the next head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. It just makes a whole lot of sense to me that. Oh, wow. I punched myself. I didn't realize you made the bet. What number did you get? I got well at 17%. So I'm somewhere in between four and five to one. Okay. On mine. Again, that's, that's what brought the question. I'm like, how do I convert this to my actual plus? It's easier. Sports fan mode is what I do. Sports fan mode. So there it is. So I have no sense of this. I don't know. Maybe they want to go Jesse Mentor. Maybe they want to again, Jesse Mentor, who was with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. Maybe they want to distance themselves. Again, poor Jesse Mentor is getting distanced. If he doesn't get this right from two jobs now, Michigan, the other one. So I don't know. We'll see. I just want to bring up one.

8:04So that, the mentor, why? So I, look, I think Flores, I think Flores, I hope Flores gets a job. I'm going to leave it as that. I would think he gets a job. Who knows what the stuff that he's going on with the other job. The ought to get a job. Yeah. I think he could make a lot of sense here, right? You, Danny and I were kind of texting about this yesterday. Like the whole John Harbaugh thing just on the surface too. Like, yeah, it's probably best for both sides. I kind of have a feeling at the end of the day. It's John Harbaugh getting the last laugh. Somewhere else. But John Harbaugh, according to John Harbaugh's agent, was contacted within 45 minutes of this news breaking history within 45 minutes. According to his agent, he was contacted by seven different teams. Now, you will note that if you count the number of openings that exist, there are seven. And one of them is the Ravens. So if you are to believe John Harbaugh's agent and you know agents never lie about anything, then some team that currently has a head coach also contacted. Well, I heard Rich Eisen's talking about this yesterday. No, I'm sorry. I'm going to put it at him shifter, by the way.

9:04Not Rich Eisen. This is Colin Coward who was talking about this with, you know, giving Colin Coward a couple of minute commentary, right? You know, he's the sports talk. What's the one team who can't lose wild card around? The Buffalo Bills, and he was basically just going, John, everything we've brought up. Josh Allen doesn't have to face. Oh, good call. Doesn't have to go through the AFC with Mahomes, Oodle and Mark Jackson, right? It's he's the one team that cannot lose. So it was, he was bringing up what happens if they do is McDermott on the hot seat, right? I don't know that he should be. I don't know if that fully translates to me, but I can understand that some, why some people would think that real quick, just wrap this up. Look, I love Flores. Mentor feels like he would make a lot of sets, right? I mean, he has been awesome for the chargers and that defense that he talked about. Any defensive minded coach would want this job. And he's big. I mean, he's been connected to Baltimore, the harbors. I mean, I guess really just, I don't know how the brothers have this conversation sometimes. Right?

10:04It's, you know, to John and Jim, John not one mentor to take the job. He was just like a gym as any food. I don't get this. I don't get the sense that those two talk every day. Yeah. Yeah. Who knows? I just want to mention this one last thing before we move on from this get to Will. Um, so my little buddy Owen going right, right? He was on the practice squad with the Ravens. And, uh, one story he, one story he told me sticks out in my brain, which is he would always say, again, the Ravens won one Super Bowl at 18 years under Harbaugh. A lot of disappointment since that Super Bowl, with a lot of expectation, right? Yeah. That's the real rub. Um, he would always say in his couple years there, he would say, it's amazing how when we get players in from other teams that the common threat with those other players is, what are we doing, practicing so much and so hard? This is in training camp, right? This is in the offseason before the season even starts.

11:04The common complaint of players that have experienced other organizations was this guy is Michuguna. Like John Harbaugh is killing us out here in August. And I was struck by that story and it then what follows after the comma from then is maybe does that contribute to late season disappointment? Who knows? I mean, again, it's a fumble by Zay. It's a drop by Andrews. It's a missed field goal. So you can really distill it to that one thing. But after all those years of not getting the promised land, I do wonder if the Ravens are more gas than other teams towards the end of the season. I don't know. Just an inside story for you on that. We'll hill on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use.

12:06No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit. With Vsyn Pro. A numbers game on Vsyn. These sports betting network. Hey, don't forget to check out while you're listening. Maybe after you're listening. I don't know. Maybe you want to do it simultaneously. Vsyn.com. Where, of course, everything is going on as well. In real time, Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets. College football play off semis, analytics report. Giants and Raiders, new head coaching odds. Coming up today, Tyler Shoemakers. Men's and women's college basketball projections. Pick, Sack, Recones, NBA best bets. Jonathan Davis's NHL picks and props. Sign up for as little as $9.99 to get access to all pro articles at Vsyn.com. Slash. Subscribe. Did you see the Tyler Shoemaker tweet yesterday? Where he got a bajillion sort of.

13:07No. Oh, yeah. You know, I was wondering why you chuckled during the live read. Because he was very clever. And it's one of those tweets where you're like, I wish I was as clever to have done that. You remember when Nate Bargazzi was on Saturday Night Live as the host? No. Okay. Well, most people don't watch that. But most people, if you know one sketch from this year, you probably know this sketch because it was actually brilliant. Okay. Where he's playing George Washington. And they're like resting one night during one of their battles or we're traveling to a battle. And it's a whole thing about how ridiculous all the contradictions are of common American life. Yeah. And then there's a racist component in there. It's a whole, it's an amazingly brilliant sketch. But Tyler Shoemaker's tweet was, it'll be called College Football. The games will be primarily on Saturday. So the sport can be properly observed when most people are off work that day and the next. And then of course that his, his guy's asking for even the semi-finals and championships.

14:07Sir, he goes, of course, not the semi-finals will be Thursday and Friday while the championship will be on Monday. So true. Oh, man. Good job, Tyler. I don't know what happened. I don't want to keep, we'll, we'll wait anymore. But like, I don't know what we used to, I feel like when I, even when I grew up, right? Like, we're not that long ago. There was such the football rules, right? It's like, we all observe and we will stay away from Fridays for high school football. Everything will revolve around that Saturday will be just college. And then we do the pro on Sunday. And then everybody figured out they could start making way more money. You know what Todd would say? The chasers. Mmm. The pigs. It does feel, doesn't care. It does feel a little weird. We don't have one of these games on Saturday. Yeah. Well, NFL double header. Will Hill joins us. By the way, the NFL being a double header on Saturday then seems weird by, it's like, oh, the three are on Sunday kind of thing. Will Hill joins us now courtesy the progressive guest line at not the, with two ease, not the will Hill is the host of the should a bet more podcast. And of course, also star of the Megapod rights for Fox Sports dot com each

15:10and every week. Will was happening, man. Boys, what's going on? Yeah, I'm with you guys. I think if we're going to add some scheduling complaints, I actually don't like the Monday wild card game in the NFL. I preferred the first year they did this. It was a triple header Saturday, triple header Sunday. If I, uh, if I got the final say, I still think that Monday wild card game is a little weird. I'd prefer the three Saturday, three Sunday, but, uh, nobody has yet to ask me. Well, maybe the either perhaps I'll ask you later today. Not called super wild card weekend. Oh, remember that. They did drop that because we all made fun of it too much. Super wild card. Super wild card. Right. Uh, about super wild card weekend. The Megapod is tomorrow. Care to share one pick here today that you like. Yeah, I can, uh, I've got a few. Do I like the best one? The one I like the most. I know it's super square. How did the Rams after losing to the Panthers already, the Panthers are not going to catch them by surprise. How do they not win this game? Like 34 to 10. I've watched more than more of the Panthers than, uh, you know, I care to admit over the last month or so for whatever reason. Just happened to, uh, you know, catch a lot of their games.

16:11I know the Rams haven't exactly been in great form, but to me, uh, the Rams will come in here focused. Maybe they get Adams back. I actually, I'm okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We're up to 11. I mean, I hate laying. I hate laying any points in the NFL, but I think the Rams absolutely roll in this game. Wow. Okay. Um, I, you know, look, am I going to be surprised if the Rams crushed them? I won't be, but that is a boy. That's a lot of points on a lot of points on the road against the Panthers team that beat the Rams earlier. Uh, this season, anything else besides that one? I like the chargers getting the three and a half. I think that. I've talked about them before you got to, you got a coach, you got a quarterback, you got a defense. And their one of Kiwi's heel is the offensive line. But look at the Patriots. 26th and the league in sacks. And that's with a lot of game states where they're ahead and they can rush the passer. So that doesn't really exploit the Achilles heel of the charger. So, uh, at some point here, Harb, Herbert's going to have to win one of these playoff games. I know, only two. We had the bad loss to Jackson, but where they blew the lead. He was awful last year against the Texans.

17:11But these things have a way of, of evening out. At some point here, I'm going to like not that he's going to be painting, but painting, but painting with the first. What five or six years of his career, that wouldn't a playoff game. I think Herbert and Harbaugh get this one. I like the three and a half. I think the hook there is the key, but I actually think the chargers win the game. And I still don't totally buy in the Patriots. I know they've been dominant, but they've beaten one team that is still alive. They beat the bills back in early October. Other than that, I mean, it seems like they play the jets or the, uh, or the Colorado Rockies every single week. It's just incredible. The schedule they've played. So I like the chargers getting the points there. Yeah, we showed that graph that cleave TA put up on Twitter. We showed it yesterday on the show for those who missed it. The, uh, point of the, of the chart was, what is the percentage of snaps that these playoff teams or, or all teams. All 32 teams have faced against backup quarterbacks and quarterbacks ranked 30th in EPA or worst, EPA per play or worst. And the Patriots by far had faced the most opposing quarterback 61% of snaps against that category of quarterbacks.

18:13Other backups or the worst of the worst in the league. Um, Jaguars right behind them bears worth third. So three playoff teams back to back to back at top. But the Patriots and Jaguars really being the ones that have gotten the best of it. Contrarily, uh, your Vikings, by the way, and this really is just a great resume item for Brian Flores. Face the fewest percentage of snaps with, uh, with the worst quarterbacks, right? They had to really, uh, face stiff competition or at least legit competition, uh, the most of any team, but of the playoff teams. It's the Panthers, the Eagles and these chargers who have faced the fewest percentage of those staffs versus backups of 30th plus EPA per step. So, uh, you know, it, it's something. Yeah. And I think it's a doctor Bob subset. I don't know the numbers. It's either Dr Bob or Fez or maybe they, uh, they collaborated on it. I'm not sure you'll have to ask them. But there's some pretty strong stuff about whoever plays the tougher schedule does pretty well in the wildcard weekend.

19:13There's a strong correlation with that over the years between strength, the schedule and doing well in wildcard weekend. That would, uh, that would, that would lend you to a chargers pick if you prescribe to that. And by the way, leave my defense of coordinator alone. Can I have something? I've never seen them in a Super Bowl. Never seen them win a Super Bowl. Let me have my defensive coordinator. So I'm trying to give Flores all these jobs ridiculous. Check on that. Can, can we'll have something? No, you're not allowed. Well, you've had the bet. You know, you've had arguably the best coaching staff for a few years now. Sorry. Got to break them up. Although you're not a KOC guy. Are you? I think it's more Flores. I think, yeah, I think O'Connell's a little overrated. I think Flores is outstanding. All right. Let's go to college football. The semi finals are here tomorrow night. Anyway, they're here. The first again of this five day stretch of college football tomorrow night. Friday night as well. And then it's the double header in the NFL Saturday. The triple header on Sunday. Then the stray wild card game on Monday. It is Miami and Ole Miss to kick things off tomorrow night. 730 Eastern in the first of the national semis. Miami has got here as an underdog into the playoffs.

20:13According to prediction markets in terms of them being allowed in. Some of us did well on that. They're three and a half point favorites versus Ole Miss. These are the two teams that took down the behemoths, right? Alabama and Ohio State. Excuse me, pardon me, not Alabama and Ohio State. Georgia and Ohio State pardon me. Miami minus three and a half. 52 and a half. How do you see this? Yeah, just like a month ago, we were sitting here. And I gave out Miami plus 650 to make the playoffs. Then I had him against A&M. And I had him against Ohio State. All the win the games. I'm a little more nervous about this game. Just because Ole Miss has a quarterback that can play under pressure. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly. And Ole Miss plays up Temple. These are all things Ohio State didn't know. Ohio State had a sitting duck at quarterback. They played slow. They let Ruben Bain and those monster defensive linemen and those guys are outstanding. Catch their breath and just keep coming after the passer. I'm worried Ole Miss can tire him out. I like Ole Miss plus the three and a half. I mean, I would love Miami just win the game by a field goal. That would be nice for some Miami futures in the middle. But I think Ole Miss getting the three and a half is the right side. I love this final four, by the way. And so, the court that's been, you know, you can call it

21:13reputations. I think that's the right side. I think that's the right side. By the way, in a court that's been, you know, you can call it repetitive predictable. How many years was it? It's Alabama. It's Clemson. It's Ohio State. It's Georgia. You get a random LSU year. But you just rotate these three or four teams. Now, it's just fresh blood. Oregon hasn't been here in forever. Miami, you know, all these teams. Ole Miss, Indiana, it is very refreshing. As far as the other game, I think Oregon's live too. I like both dogs. A lot of the film guys will say that Indiana's defense is very complex and that the first time you see it, it's going to drive you crazy. Don't take more. Only put up 13 points. And through a pick six. I think the second time around, he might be a little more comfortable here. So I will take Oregon getting the points. But these should both be awesome games. And would not be surprised if any of the four teams were holding up the trophy here in a couple of weeks. By the biggest story in college football, college football yesterday. And it's potentially like an explosive story. I'm curious your thoughts on this. It's a little more sports talkie. But Washington quarterback, Demon Williams, Jr. Who, by the way, is awesome at football.

22:13Set on social media Tuesday night. He's entering the transfer portal. A move that comes just days after he agreed to return to Huskies for the 2026 season. He had signed a contract to return to UW last week. With Pete family over to ESPN saying the deal was near the top of the market. Washington prepared to pursue all legal avenues to enforce Williams's signed contract. What a mess. I mean, I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. Obviously, how can they make him play though? I don't know what that where this goes. And you know, to your point, Soresby, the kid who was playing at Cincinnati, got signed for $5 million in Texas Tech. $5 million. Bohnix is the quarterback of the one CD, makes $4.5 million. It's just, it's completely out of control. It is a total mess of a sport right now. You know, you're supposed to go to college children to learn life lessons and signing a contract and holding to it is probably a good life lesson. We'll see if our colleges can actually hold them to it. Guessing not. Will, thank you. Appreciate it. You guys, thanks.

23:13We'll heal everybody. Should've been more podcast wherever you get your podcast. NFL awards. Heat check. Next. A numbers game on FESIN. These sports betting network. Football meets flavor with FESIN and Omaha Stakes. The official sponsor of tailgating it right now and you spend $129. You can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings plus 50% offside wide at OmahaStakes.com. Slash VSIN. Don't wait, spend $129. Get two pounds of wings and save 50% offside wide on stakes and more at OmahaStakes.com. Slash VSIN. That's OmahaStakes.com. Slash VSIN. Minimum purchase required. See site for details. Omaha. Omaha. As a paid man he used to say. We get to wait to be to the book. Y'all are the best. I stand by it. Best listeners in the game. This is a, this is from last night actually. This first one. It's from, I want to get this correct. Where is it? Carl.

24:13Carl, we tack who says. Does this stat for wild car weekend still hold true? The spread doesn't come into play for 80% of the games. Was it 88%? Yes. What you're getting at is. For years and years and years I talked about this stat that in regular season games going back to 1978. 83% of the time. Right. Regular season games. 83% of the time. The spread doesn't matter. Which is to say the underdog wins outright. Or the favorite cover. So only 17% of the time. Does the favorite win but not cover in other words. Which by the way sounds like a small amount but it's really not. It's not a negligible amount 17%. But yes to your point Carl that the wild card weekend historically. But I did this before this last format of it. Was 88%. Wild car weekend was the one where the spread mattered the least. Of any weekend in the NFL. Don't know if that's held true the last couple years. It should be easy enough to check on that. Lance Schaefer says everyone hates on naggy as a coaching candidate. But he was a double doink away from a playoff win with Mr. Biscay.

25:13As his quarterback the kicker also missed a walkoff at Miami that same year. Bears would have had a first round by I'm not saying he's great. But he isn't a turd. He says there. There you go. There's a little. A vote of confidence. Hey, listen. He's not a turd. We like to say that already. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ray in Texas. Yeah. I disagree. Kind of think he's a turd. But yeah. You got to think he is turd like. It is amazing though. Some of these coaches like the. So what of the giants. Giants already have talked with Mike McCarthy. Kevin Stefansky next. There's just so many grease cycles, man. Like I. Stefansky deserves. Does Mike McCarthy. Are we like you? Are they bringing in Gene shoe and Kevin Lockery and Del Harris? Also. Okay. Like Stefansky might be different. Right. How are you supposed to? Are you excited for Mike McCarthy or Matt Nagy? Bro. Ray in Texas. With the United States essentially buying Greenland, he says. I'm over here wondering what the odds are for the next NFL franchise. That we placed in nook. Is it nook?

26:13NUUK? Is that a pronounce it? Any thoughts? Greenland glaciers. Greenland ice cap. Greenland cold as hell. Drifting into the political. Well, going back to D2. Mighty Ducks too. Yeah. I remember a quote from it. That's the green is the one with ice and ice is the one with green. Kelly building in Iceland. Kelly. It's all I got for you. Educational hacks with Kelly building. Yeah. Podcasts coming to you. Political takes, dude. That's right. As long as they can all be tied back to a Mighty Ducks film. Shilly gambler. From yesterday, Pete Futex urban foot description of the aroma of his hotel. Seems more of a haunting bouquet than the delightful burolo Drew was describing. Kelly's idea of tennis and wine podcasts is something the world needs. Please do it. I don't know if he's telling me to do it or for a drew to do it. Draco may. Oh, do you see this? Everybody's sending out this. You see this footage of this tennis tournament. This low level tennis tournament night. Roby or some Nigel Tweet. Some girl got a wild card.

27:14A lot of people tweeted. Nigel was one of a lot. I guess. Well, some girl got a wild card that is clearly paid for. She could barely play tennis. Some believe him. Jason start. Oh, great. We have to listen to air and tell us how great the Ravens are when they sucked as usual on the numbers game today. Best team ever to fire their head coach. She says. I don't think that's going to come up. Tim Bowers. You might be a numbers game listener. If after week 18, you turn your sights to college basketball futures and compare those odds to the traits of champions. You remember from a numbers game and take a shot on Florida at 31. Who meet all but one but are close enough to qualify. I love that. Sam Ginsburg. Remember that a couple years back, Mike Tomlin hired Flores when the Miami stuff had just started. So Baltimore might want Flores more has stealer knowledge or less. Or less feel. Flores has Pittsburgh Tomlin closeness. I don't understand the last part of that. Daryl Winningham. Regarding Kanye, Gillie, you're paraphrasing the one song that makes 60 year old white guys believe that they're into hip hop.

28:14I ain't saying she's a gold digger. Daryl, you might be new around here. It's what this it's about the 5,000 hip hop track. I've ever quoted. But because it was 18 years for a hard bar. I just felt the opening. Uncle Bush. Are there still lines up for far away places for coordinator of the year? Wondering what the current odds are asking for a friend that has Flores 11 to one PS that renders me. Remember that was one of the weirdest things. So some of these books, two of them, two of them. There's two markets I'm thinking of. Assistant coach of the year and protector of the year. What's protector? Oh, yeah, protector of the year. Dion Dawkins got that to be an award. Like, what? Yeah, yeah, yeah. We looked at it at the beginning of the year. So that was an awards market listed. A betting market. Yeah. And then they disappear. They disappear. They don't repose. And there's no sign of them. So people are worried that they won't get paid out on this. I think there's some offshore books that have been keeping them up. But I have not seen them anywhere here in the US. My own marker for 20. There was ever a time for the phrase mutual decision. One would have thought it would have been the press release from the Ravens about Harbaugh.

29:14But to fire him. Wow. After the Harbaugh firing, there are a lot of head coaching seats that at least got warm if not hot. Harbaugh to Miami. South Beach. It's a great tweet. And I've always been a rumor to go the Giants to. Who knows? This is also like, where are you? This is where we go back to the mutual decision. All right. Mutual decision. I never feel like it's a mutual decision because I completely agree if there was ever going to be one. It should be John Harbaugh with the Baltimore Ravens. Yeah. Absolutely. All right. Awards heat check. And let me start this, Kelly. Because our whole reason for doing this is, which do we think is done? Yeah. Which do we think is still in play? Alive. Yeah. But can I just before we do that and thank you to, thank you to Tom Mass 313 for alerting us to this. Sports illustrated. The Monday morning quarterback column that Peter King used to do. It's now just called the MM of the MM QB staff article did a straw poll for these awards. So straw poll on what these how these awards might shake down on this.

30:15It's a 10 person panel. So not obviously 50. These are 10 people. Albert Breer is on this among the names that you recognize Andrew Brent. So 10 people all from sports illustrated, not actual voters in all cases. And in their little straw poll, Matthew Stafford wins MVP 48 points to 42 points. Um, he gets eight first. Matthew Stafford does Drake make its two first again, reflection or not. We don't know. Offense player of the year. A dead heat tie between Christian McCaffrey and Jackson Smith and Jigba with B. John finishing third in the coup of fifth. What are we doing? Yeah, that's that. That is by far the most interesting one on this article. There it wins a defensive player of the year. No shocker there. Offense of rookie. The year does go to 10 aeromic millen over Tyler shock 49 points to 31 points. And not really close, not really close at Buka Tyler Warren with Jackson dart in that order. Jackson dart by the way ties with cam warden is okay.

31:17Defense rookie. The year goes to Schwessinger. Why don't have so much trouble saying that. Danny Higgins boy Nick M and Worry finishes six points behind him. Come back playing the year does go to Christian McCaffrey over Aiden Hutchinson. And coach of the year goes to. Mike rabble by five points over Mike McDonald. Liam Cohen in third. Close a vote. Anyway, read in that what you will. So Kelly, the question is which of those do we think which which do we feel is over? Which do we feel is still in play MVP still in play? Yeah, let's start it up with MVP. All of our odds courtesy today. From cowsie as we expected sports books taking down awards. Sorry. So minus 204 for Stafford Drake May plus 156. I think it's over. I think it's Stafford. I really do. I hope you're right. I hope you're right. I'm going to go with not done yet. Okay. I think this is. I think it's going to be very close. I agree with the JVT theory. We're going to look back at this and we're going to see it's not that close. I hope so, man. I hope so. All right.

32:17Offensive player of the year. Definitely up for grabs. Yes, and minus 1900. Again, we shoot. We showed the stats. Last week in this week. Puka Nakua and Jackson Smith and Jigba stats are almost identical. There is no chance that these numbers reflect reality. I'm not saying Puka is going to win. There's no chance it's this far apart. It's not over to me. I think JSN wins. I guess if I. Obviously we're doing the. Done or not done. So I guess I'll go done since I have to pick one of those. So you're. Your take on this is just like my take on MVP. But I think it's closer than these did in the odds reflect. Yes. I think MVP's done. You think offense player. We're apple on those. All right. Defensive player of the year. You'll have done Xander. Done. Next. Did you hear Miles get. We should have done. Who's going to go to anybody? Publicize that. Who's going to finish second? That's what we really should have done all year. All right. Offensive rookie of the year. Tedaro Macmillan minus 1150. I mean, I don't think it's that did.

33:17I think it's way closer than this. But I guess he's going to win. I don't know. To me, this is not done at all. Yeah. I'll go with not done too. Well, I do think he is likely to win. Man, this is. This has to have been a tough conversation in your own mind if you're a voter out there. All right. Coach, your variable minus 204. Our boy MacDonald that counts you down to plus 233. It ain't over. Party's not over. I don't think so either. I think Liam Cohen still has. He still might have a say in this. Or, you know, he won't have a say at all. But maybe others will have a say for it. Hey, I don't even know Ben Johnson's out. I really don't. Don't know. This one's definitely not over. And come back. The year is over. Yeah. Chris, come back. We'll give that one to McCaffrey. I think we did them all, didn't we? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. College basketball break with Greg Peterson on the other side. His fab five. And then we'll get to Aaron Schatz. His annual appearance here after the regular season. DBOA. And his awards thoughts as a voter. It's a numbers game. The beast in the sports betting network.

34:28A numbers game on Feesand. The sports betting network. Back on the numbers game. Live from Circa Resort. Sino-Dowell Tallah's Vegas Gill Alexander. My little buddy Kelly Bidlin. Hey, oh. Everybody. Oh, wait. For Kelly and I, where we sit side by side. So I never get to really like stare at Kelly straight on. And finally, after the show yesterday, we were actually having a straight on conversation. Looking deep into my eyes, gazing deep into his eyes. And what did I say to Kelly? I think you've lost enough weight. You did. I think I didn't know more. No more. Don't worry. Don't worry. It's not happening. Okay. We get tweets of being in the book. Advice he didn't ask for. GV, New Jersey, New York. Regarding hall balls and tense training camps. That's a very common complaint about Bella check disciples. When they become head coaches for the first time. Difference between when Bill did it compared to when the disciples did it. Is that Bill at the time was Bill. Does John have that cachet? Talk about my story about how players from other teams would come in there and be like, Why are we practicing so much? And so hard. What are we doing? We should be resting. A little more. I, oh, yeah.

35:29S6-9. Harbaugh had the ridiculous winning streak in the preseason. Remember as well. Oh, yeah. He goes, maybe in the end, winning in the preseason was his downfall. Doubtful, but maybe. By the way, that, I mean, that tracks with your stories about camp. Yes. And Rappaport just coming out to Ravens looking for a head coach that will, quote, reach and invigorate Lamar Jackson. Yeah. It pretty much seems like it came down to that. Doesn't it? Yes, it does. Yeah. It's either him or me. Or him or him. And they decided who they had to get rid of. Get rid of Mariners Geek, who I met the other day who was out here after the show. Great meeting him. He says, John Harbaugh. This guy's Michigan, I said. He's quoting me. He goes for the new viewers. A Yiddish slang word meaning crazier nuts. Thank you. Edward Perez at Boomerizle had a dream last night that Gil was hanging out at my house watching a bowl game. He was eating cake with fruity pebbles on top. Does this mean I'm listening to too much in numbers game? Or is it safe to carry on?

36:29First of all, let me just tell you your dream is ridiculous. It would have been cocoa pebbles. Let's get that straight. Edward, you're watching just the right amount. Who knows? Maybe I am at your house eating. Fruity pebbles. Okay, good too. Man, now you all going to make me go buy fruity pebbles or cocoa pebbles. Is there anything better than cereal? No, no, I love it. It's one of those things that it's problem. I can't have it in the house. It's like chips. It's like a bag of chips. If I'm going to buy a bag of chips, I got to buy the little individual ones because otherwise I'll just sit on the couch and eat away. Dranski Gilly, from yesterday, Pete FuuTax take on the SEC and how Malzhu, Vanity and Tennessee all lost their bowl games is flawed logic, SEC teams don't take bowl games. And seriously, everyone playing versus the SEC, wants to show they can compete. Top to bottom, still the best. I agree with you, T larger. I didn't want to be rude at the time. And then Uncle Bush pointed out the exact verbiage of that draft Kings market was assistant coach of the year and his wager was place September 30th on palm flour is an 11 to 1. There you go. And then finally Teddy Rack, I was always a give or take on Drew when he was on a numbers game now that I know is a Duke guy

37:32I'm all in on him. He likes the Duke aspect and Brian shape for my opinion is that Stafford and May You can give the MVP to either of them But I think the voters are going to give it to Stafford because of the stages of each of their careers One is a season or two left and The May he says has many left to get the award Brian. I think your instincts are correct I think that's how it's going to go Greg Peterson will find out what his favorite serial is and his favorite college basketball plays of the day courtesy of the progressive gas line you can follow him on Twitter a G unit underscore 81 his tribute to Anquan Bolden of all people it's Greg Peterson everybody how you doing Greg? I'm doing great and by the way when it comes to Serials no need for the Pebbles or anything like that Reese's Puffs I am a Reese's Puffs man right here grew up on it and that's why I'm here today the breakfast of champions I go I grew up on frosted flakes and let me just say this I'll go a couple years as an adult without having them and then I'll like I'll just be like I'm really The chocolate frosted flakes. Oh, no, no classic flakes. I don't need to chocolate them up Greg

38:33Just the classic. That's all I need Greg. I'm rarely here to argue with you But Reese now the Reese's the captain crunch peanut butter. Wow. That's the one. That's the one If you ever had that it's craved cereal craved cereal They didn't have it when I was a real real little kid, but that stuff is good I don't know that one stuff is by the way as Kellogg's and post and all them would would would remind us and good for you too That's right Part of a balanced breakfast. Right part of a balanced browser line part of a balanced breakfast You got a balance on the other side is what they mean Greg. Let's get to some college hoops last night Let's go through like four results here Michigan We talked about Michigan yesterday on the show the juggernaut that they are They end up just barely getting by Penn State 7472 They win, but don't even come close to covering So they they stay with their undefeated season Duke Down nine at the half to Louisville storm back to win 84 to 73 That was a huge second half display by Duke Houston number seven Houston beats number 14 Texas tech 69 65 and number 22 Kansas

39:39They beat TCU for those who missed this 104 to 100 and OT and Darren Peterson dropped 32 in their face Uh, which of those four outcomes is the most meaningful to you By the way, having plenty of Peter said part of a balanced college basketball That's right that said I feel like the most stunning result was the fact that Michigan got taken to the wire by Penn State and I truthfully took the points with Penn State So that was a no-so I would her for myself, but Penn State won the rebound battle and Michigan has been just Clobbering teams on the glass all season long and then each other last 10 games prior to last night Michigan had won by 18 plus points and all of them 25 plus points and all but one of those games as well So we had seen clean domination and this is what we find a lot with these teams in January They dominate in the non-conference play keep in mind what happened with Yukon during their two title runs They would just go through non-conference play they would beat up on all these seats And then right when they get to conference play they have to play those true row games

40:41These teams rise up against them So I'm going to be very fat to see to see how Michigan bounces back a little bit more because I thought that that was the most interesting result And it very much fits the trend of what we've seen from last few national title winners where they start out very hot They get a little bit cold in January and then they heat up once again come March. Yeah Makes sense. You still think they're the best team in the country though Absolutely, you can't dock a team just because of one closer result I wasn't even a lot so I would say yes So you still have to go with Michigan and number one But what Arizona and I was state due tonight going to be very interesting as well Absolutely And you have no play on either of those two games by the way I did leave the points with I was state where I was seeing them at four and a half overnight Against Baylor and I do feel like a lot of people are making too much of these jelly guys that are going out of these scenes That's James Donji in his debut for Baylor and like five points before rebound So there's that aspect of things that then in the Arizona versus

41:42Versus Kansas State game. I've seen that total above 170 the Arizona defense of my opinion is too good for that Totally be 170 plus so took a shot on that under all right to bonus festival Greg because now it's time for Greg's fab Five let's start with the Oklahoma game. What do you have in this one? I'm looking at the under here You have an Oklahoma team that has been rough in terms of guarding the three-point line But I think that that'll improve as the season goes along last year top 35 team in terms of their opponents three point Shooting process that puter Moser's shit system is pretty good And then you got a Mississippi state team that has just never shot a well from three under christians They have never been inside the top two armed with the guards of their three point shooting process Have an Oklahoma team as well that is pretty slow and controlled outside the top 190 Terms of total possessions per game But while Oklahoma 11th in the country in terms of points per possession that falls by darn near 20 points for on 100 possessions A weight from home what Mississippi state has been really good It's been thanks to low post plays so in this one I do look at that total under especially now that it's above 160 between these two as I think you get a nip and duck game

42:46What kind of system do you say porter Moser had at Oklahoma never doing so that question Under 159 and a half Oklahoma Mississippi state from gray. That's the first of the fab five then rice in Wichita state also in under Yes, so Wichita state slowing controlled system must like much like porter Moser and his system at Wichita state 222 terms of total possessions for game and rice outside the top three 35 in terms of points per possession away from home They have not scored away from home Wichita state to an a great job in terms of owning glass Now, I do think that 13 half by beginning a little bit too high here This is a rice team that doesn't do the world's worst job in terms of guarding the perimeter But I mean, it's a rice team that they've been a relatively mid tempo team themselves feel like this total is just got way too I with way that rice as performed with regards are outside shooting away from home So in on that under of 141 a.m. 142 nap. All right Greg with dermis crates Scott squad taking on Villanova You're taking craten with the points Yes, craten is doing the little things well There are top five team in terms of few as free throw attempts allowed on her per possession basis and in a tight spot

43:51Villanova shooting less than 70% of the free thlein That's a little bit of concern crane playing some better basketball even that loss over the weekend against seed hall They were very much in that game and for Villanova their line teams at home to shoot 40.9 percent for three point range Outside top three 35 and off college basketball So took the points here with craten You dub and Purdue a third under from you Greg and under fest Absolutely Purdue outside the top to 80 in terms of total possession spray And while Purdue leads the country in terms of points per possession They've also been rock solid on defense of Washington down one their top scores in Wesley A's And they have to do a lot of travel here multiple times. So I think that's going to affect them all right And then fading well at least taking the points not fading taking the points against AJ de Montsen BYU with the sun devil Yep BYU 20th and points per possession 18th and points allowed per possession their defense is actually been more efficient But Arizona State shooting 39.7 percent for three points away from on mo odum one the most undery of guards in college basketball

44:53Give me the points with Arizona State Greg Peterson everybody what's your cereal again? What is it? Will you like Reese's puffs? We like Reese's puffs. I like they go to the week. Thank you Greg Appreciate it as always great city Greg Peterson everybody Aaron shots the creator of DVOA next I appreciate it as always great city Greg Peterson everybody Aaron shots the creator of DVOA next next