A Numbers Game | January 30, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story to Alex now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill I like Xander gone decent. Our number three of a numbers game of recently sports betting network visa dot com game plus I heart radio YouTube TV. Sirius XM channel one fifty eight I leave out game plus I think I do. I don't want to do that. Game plus shadow. Folks watching us in Canada through New York as well on Game Plus. Gill Alexander Kelly is behind the glass because physics Fridays is about to start. Don't know that yet. Don't need yet. We get tweets beating the book P five legends. Gill, I agree with you that Reagan has to be the most popular player in DMV history, but assuming the hog and assuming the hogs cannot be considered as a group. He says that's correct. He says, my silver bronze and honorable mention would be Darryl Green, Sonny Jurgensen and Wes Oncel. Darryl Green for sure on that list. Absolutely. Rick Oliet just meant the last few minutes watching the skins fins. Superbow highlights. Yeah, the second one, right? Not the undefeated dolphins against Washington. Super Bowl seven, but this is Super Bowl 17. He

1:02says the first question I have is what was it like? What was life like before electricity? Gill, just kidding. NFL films always makes games look way older than they were. Yeah, no, it was that we did only have three networks back then. Indeed, we didn't have cable in DC at that point. So it was only three networks still. Bees and chatting at the the Megapod again yesterday, the 15th annual Vegas lifestyle Megapod, which is our tradition on the beating the book podcast and the betting door before that, the week between the championship games and the Super Bowl, we decided the first year, well, hey, I'm going to just do a Vegas lifestyle show. And then that tradition has lasted yesterday, Mark Meltzer, like Celter, who writes for Casinos.com and Tim Lawson, who is the host of the better life. He does such a great job with that podcast. He's also the Megapod historian. They were the guests on the show and they were just spectacular. We had a great time doing that show. Chance Copperpot, your fanboy interview was amazing. I would have completely devolved into the Chris Farley show character if I were to interview Marshawn Lynch or Gary Baton. Thanks for share that with us. It was tough. I almost got there. That was

2:05awesome. Remember that time you bowed to the crowd at RFK. That was awesome. Charles and Connecticut, my score three times bed experience. Oh, this is the super bowl prop that I was saying, always flumics is better. Will a team score three times in a row? He says, my score three times bed experience, many years ago when I was pretty new to sports betting, I made a big bet on the no thought I won, but ended up losing my mistake was I thought times meant possessions. To this day, I think the wording is not clear three times in a row, three times in a row. PAW say the great Gibbs story on wiki two yet Gibbs went to Kansas again to beg John Riggins at retirement. He sure did come back or broken them back. Rich PSM hate Chris. Oh, he's talking about to delete to leaky says, Hey, Chris, I cried way harder when your bets and jets shocked 11 year old Baltimore me in 1970. And Ryan Hyde, if you only watch one thing today, watch our daily broadcast tonight 6 30 central, if you want two things, make sure you take in Gil Meltzer and Tim Lawson on the podcast a year in the making. Yeah, get Ryan what Ryan Hyde some

3:07love with his show. You can find him at Ryan Hyde media over there on Twitter. We'll get to more tweets, but ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Physic Fridays. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physic Fridays. starring Steve Fessick everybody only back to back winter super godness, little wave tell people what you came in here and said to me with first thing out of your mouth, not even hello, what did you say to me? If you lost a little weight, you'd be looking great. No, that's not what you said. What's the other thing you said? I don't recall. You said, I liked your interview, except I didn't like one question. Oh, yeah, just because of the the and but you clarified, I did clarify. And so I give you an a pause now purposely ask the question because he wanted the clear for you on it, because most people assume you're selling stuff, you're hard up, that's not him. That's not what you and I and you think I don't listen or you don't change my opinions, but I said, you know what, I can I can 100% you know, see that. So as a changed man, everybody, you know, I'm just turning over a new leaf, I believe

4:09that they said, I missed the lifestyle pod because I was doing something and I and I and I was I really I loved doing it last year. It's probably good to have new blood though, right? To rotate you and crack did it last year. I hope crack wasn't offended that he was on this year, but it was you and crack did it last year. Meltzer does it every year. It's 15 years in a row. He's done it. Tim Lawson adds a great perspective also because he like you likes to take advantage of rewards programs. And everyone has different perspectives. My favorite from last year was I like I talk about getting diamond status and diamond elite and going on free cruises through ceasers and their rewards and and Meltzer and I said, just need to take $5,000 up to Tahoe and a 10 times points, you know, weekend and play there and he got mad at you and he got mad at me. He's like, I don't have I might not have five or $10,000 lying around in my response was, you know, Marie Antoinette let the meat cake just borrow it from Kale. Melt, melt. Meltzer and I got into it a little bit yesterday also because I was making the point that it was actually one of our listeners who was, you

5:12know, who made the point. He works at the R.A. He was talking about all the prices of things. And he he finishes tweet by saying Vegas has forgotten the, you know, they've they've lost track of the golden goose. 100%, right, which I would agree with, which is the old notion that the reason that lost Vegas was what made Las Vegas so great was they knew that we get your money in the casino. They made everything else affordable. And with corporate ownership, they've lost that and Meltzer digs his heels in on this. It's part of the podcast. He's he really takes the Vegas side of it. He goes, the numbers do not bear that out is basically what he say. So when I go to Manhattan and I can get a slice of pizza for $1.50 in Midtown Manhattan, or in Times Square, but when I go to buddy V's in the, in Caesars in the food court, and it's 1295, he doesn't feel him being out. Well, the gentleman who from the R.A. who wrote that was happy that I pushed back on it because I don't, I don't agree. We live it. We see it every day. You know, when you go to the high end restaurants, and it's a great experience, but

6:12you just get a, an old fashioned cocktail and it's $24. I pineapple martini's $24. I mean, I mean, how could you not say there's gouging going on? Yeah, that was the, that was the beginning portion of the podcast where we sort of set the negative part of Vegas. And then it became a love letter. But there's lots of positives. Oh, there are. There are. There are. There are lots about when we'll get into some of that stuff here, or some of your thoughts on, on that side of things. I want to start where down and cuff left off. He's on Michigan State tonight. You are as well. Yeah, what's this? What's this? Michigan who hasn't covered since what thanks giving? It seems like a team that's scuffling a team that struggled against Ohio State played a Nebraska team that was missing two of their best players and was down at halftime. And now they're favored at Sparty, who's playing very well. I don't, I think wrong team favored this. It was a big bet for me. I am on Sparty. Okay. Let's go to Super Bowl 60 before we get into some theoreticals. Let's talk about a couple specific bets. Drake May first quarter under 46 and a half

7:17passing yard. So this hits all the narrative buttons. So we all know that the second halves of Super Bowl tend to be higher scoring than the first halves. I believe it's 18, seven and one. The last 26 Super Bowls teams are conservative. They start out slow. And then all heck can break loose in the second half. All heck. And secondly, get that finger ready on the button. You know, we've already had Rick, Rickens, I mean, the doctor Bob's always a loose cannon and then Fesick, you never know. So I also think that Drake May has struggled obviously, ball control in the playoffs. So I think knowing going to be very careful with the ball in the first quarter. So Drake May under 46 pass yards first quarter. I don't know who's going to get the ball. It's about 50, 50. Obviously, if Seattle starts with the ball, it's a great bet. Oh, but that's a good point that you just made there. Don't gloss over that. No real edge on who gets the ball first in this matchup. Yeah. And I have to tell you this, maybe this shouldn't

8:17bother me, but it just, it's so anger's me. Yes. Every year, this is the time of year that people that don't bet any of this stuff. This drives me crazy. Pretend to be experts. And now they go and I just listened to a 20 minute podcast from these guys that think they're the smartest people in the world. And they're talking about the coin toss and betting and should be minus 105. Should the books be minus 103 and they go on and on and on and on. Never mentioning that they're actually our advantageous plays with the coin toss. And this was one of the best plays that was out there, not whether it would be heads or tails, but who would start with the ball because it's not always 50 50 without going into great detail further. There are advantage players like they'll take advantage of the comp points like like as a promo sometimes like like Caesars has put heads plus 100 tails plus 100. So if we have extra money sitting around, I'm sorry, Mark Meltzer, maybe can't take advantage of this one, you know, Gil bets 20,000 heads. I bet 20,000 on tails. We both we break even we both ask for food comp and we help our status. So there's

9:19a lot meat on the bone. And yet I'm hit with nonstop tails never fails. Or maybe we go heads now and what's the historical stuff? And should I be betting on this or not? And I'm not saying that that's it's not interesting. But why not talk about the advantage side of it? Right. But this goes by the way, clarifying, we're not we're not each betting 20 K on the coin toss. In the case you missed missed the point there. But the this first, especially for someone in content like myself, right, who does this every day? Kelly and I sit here for three hours every day and we do a show on this. And obviously it's the run up to the Super Bowl. People want to talk about the Super Bowl. Super Bowl props have become this amazing cottage industry. So you know, Drew Denson was the first person I gave Drew the shout because on Tuesday, he was on. And when I said to my guy, you know, I let it open ended, I was like, what's your props approach? And he was very contemplative about it, right? And he said he goes, well, he goes, I just believe the notion that people who don't have numbers and who don't bet these all year, just show up for the Super Bowl and bet all these

10:19props are fooling themselves. And I said, immediately, I was like, I'm so glad he gave that perspective. It's a great disclaimer to have. But even as you're saying it and I agree with everything you're saying, right? Same same sort of frequency on this. But I we also have to be aware that people just aren't like you, right? They just want to have fun doing this stuff fair enough. Yeah. And I'm not anti fun. I mean, I'm a okay. My point is you don't have to beat your chest and bet like $500 on 50 props. You know, if you normally bet, you know, 100 or 200 game and you want to bet 20 props, scale back your bets. I just have fun bet $10 on 20, 30 things. It's just recreation. I don't jump over my fence on the golf course and I start screaming at people. I can't believe you spent $145. Yeah, that's negative EV to play this round today. I don't go to the bowling alley. That would be what are you doing? That would be awesome if you did that. Is that Steve Fessig who just jumped over the fence to school people who are spending all his money playing golf. You have one more Super Bowl bet. We will

11:21get to on the other side. We will talk about some great deals speaking of the Vegas lifestyle podcast that you want to do talk about as well. Advantage betting on the coin toss is maybe lost over that. But we can talk about that again. But also projected finals and coming up with your projection and then your prediction. All that was Steve Fessigol. Funch on his mind. Steve Fessig at Fessig sports on Twitter. Follow at your own peril. Coming back on a numbers game right here at Beeson. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use no secrets no fluff just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vs in pro.

12:28A numbers game on Fessig these sports betting network numbers live from circle resort casino downtown Las Vegas Derek Stevens Shangri-la on the desert skill out. He's in there. We get tweets be to the book y'all are the best for real. All morning long every morning y'all are really the best best listeners in the game. Bill Hooker. To say rego was a staple of the Northern Virginia bar scene would be a huge understatement hence the oxygen on the bench during games. You can relate that right back to the bar scene. The great swammy gator. Hey guys, speaking of Alex Huddled and climbing the first time I walked free solo was on a very turbulent flight quite an immersive experience. Oh man. Chris Heath North versus South course, the golf tournament will reflect it in current odds came young 20 to one windom Clark 200 to one in both are to wonder. Appreciate that. This is from let's see shoot him a gambling. How would you like to hear Tony Romo doing commentary on the on the guy climbing the skyscraper. I think this climb is going to come down a step here and a step

13:29there Jim. That's pretty good. D Gen Southern Gen. The look you'll had on his face when John Reagan's confirmed his Super Bowl game war in Jersey still had game day DNA was the look only fans would have it was very similar to the look. Only fans have when they purchase game war and garments online best listeners of the game. Let's see. Oh, apparently there was a plan. I sort of when down was on I sort of asked it because he was talking about he was watching free solo because he thought fall was coming. He was told and he was shocked to see there was no fall. And so I just asked openly what was Netflix plan? Apparently, L Duncan has revealed a plan. She said I had a card on my lap that basically was like we've experienced a fall and we're going to get off air now and we will update you as soon as we can on Alex's condition. I mean, the laugh, but like what else could his condition be at that point? Oh, he broke a limb. I'm not up to speed that someone's climbing a skyscraper or I don't know anything about this. But all of a sudden tech

14:32started flying back and forth. I think it was a Saturday. Don't hold me to that. But I think it was Saturday. Oh, Netflix has this dude who's from formal Las Vegas, apparently who lives here. Alex Hummel, who apparently who's he's climbed things before. He climbed skyscraper in Taipei. Taipei, Taipei one in Taiwan. And he was talking through it. He was having no trouble with it. And I am watching viscerally. I'm terrified of heights viscerally. I'm like, my palms are sweaty. I'm like, oh, my God. I couldn't watch it for more than five minutes. I was like, I got to watch basketball. So that was the story. So locally here in Las Vegas, people don't even know this. We have mountains. We have big mountains. Yes, we do. So there's two like best bets in terms of bang for your buck. If you can bolder a little bit, you're healthy. If you go to Red Rock Canyon, you can go up like 700 feet to like the Red Rock clips and you go to the top, you get a view of the overall valley. If you don't like bouldering and you're in good shape, you can go to Griffith Peak. It's over 11,000 feet. It'll take you like 3000 vertical from 7,500 up to like 11,000 plus get a

15:36fantastic view. And if you really want to go for it, Mount Charleston is like 11,500. But it's like an all day hike. I done it once in my life. It was rough. Yeah, it was rough. Vegas Vegas Jared J brand agency. I owe Gillin apology. I've been a long time visa listener, but always skip Gill's show until about two months ago. Now it's can't miss. I feel like I wasted the last seven years. Yeah, you didn't keep it the great work. Gill PS need more crack man content. Thank you, uh, brad J brand agency. I hope you, uh, I appreciate you finding us when when you did Eric Cheshire. Uh, even if work gets in the way, I make sure to watch the recorded shows in the app is the best show going. Thank you. People like Steve Fezick make it such New York mess 16 just realized my son has drivers education orientation schedule from February 8th at 5 30 PM. Who does that? What the fudge? You have it. Your son has a drivers class in the middle of the Super Bowl. What do we do? What's this? What's this? Okay, so you allowed to listen to it while it drives? That's insane. You have another Super Bowl bet for us. Second half

16:38over 22 and a half points. Yeah, if we're back to the theme of Super Bowl start slow and the scoring picks up in the second half, the total is 45 and half. So how can the second half total be less than half of the game total? You know, that one doesn't make sense. Hey, Lil House cleaning. I give out Michigan State plus one. Your previous guest, Michigan State plus 100. I don't want the internet. The bomb me saying I'm a dumber. I fully recognize plus 100 is slightly superior to plus one minus one 10. So if you have your choice between those two, absolutely, I would bet the plus 100. Okay. God forbid anybody call you a dumber. You do not want that. We're talking about Super Bowl props. We're talking about it bothers you how people go, you know, people who otherwise aren't betting props all of a sudden they give you this prop package, right? Some picksellers do that? Well, yeah, and it's chock full of oftentimes the needle and the haystack props. The absolute sucker bets that the casino makes their 20, 25% hold against and everyone's predicting the exact

17:41final score and who's going to be the MVP and who's going to score the first touchdown and the last touchdown and the truth is that is just like the stone cold sucker bets because not because if the amount of vague associated with them was small, it would be fine, but the the house can just bury tons of extra vague into those bets. And that's why Vegas hasn't had a losing Super Bowl in like 20 years and I will predict they never will going forward because of all those. What was the one they lost on again? The Giants, one of the Giants upset wins against the Pets. Yeah, because the because the public just loves betting the money line on the underdog and they there was so many payouts. So let's repeat that because I've said this already in the week, too, is the Super Bowl for whatever reason, bettors, instead of betting the dog plus the points, they take the dog on the money line, maybe because it's the last to rob whatever it is. So sometimes it mutes the money line on the favorite. So on the exchanges, pursuant to that anticipating a line move, I start buying up the Patriots plus 210. And then I went to plus 217.

18:46And I'm like, all right, pot committed, like this isn't, I've got this book, The Odds, which is a great book. Chad Millman. Chad Millman, it had documents, Alan Boston, Jill Lupo, in 20 years ago, but like when when a line is moving against Alan Boston, he the book says in a desperate attempt to wheel in the line, Alan starts betting even more. So I did the same thing. So when the Patriots went up on the exchange at the plus 217 and in a desperate attempt to help my dollar cost averaging, I just kept buying more New England because surely they're only a four and a half point dog. Four and a half point dogs don't close no big, you know, minus 217 plus 217, they close minus 194 plus 194. So I anticipate that the public will get involved, people will bet who are betting the Patriots will bet the money line and that money line will crash down. You brought in the prop of Chad Millman's book The Odds, saw Chad briefly, Chad said hello at that bet bash, but one of your favorite gambling books of all time. And what's interesting, it's a great book and it's a flawed book

19:47because Chad was not well versed with gambling jargon when he wrote this. He was learning at the time. So there's there's several not mistakes, but just clear paragraphs. It's obvious that he's new to the gambling business, but he's a tremendous writer. And I think and and it holds up to this day. And there's a part in there where it talks about how books hate the Super Bowl product. So Joe Lupo, the consummate professional, he used to run the startup. He famously was the first guy to kick me out of a that's the first casino got kicked out of he's like he's so frustrated with means like Steve no more betting for the rest of the year, the rest of the year. That's it. All right, so he barred me, he gave me a barred me for rest of year. So January 1st, I'm like, I didn't ask him what is that 12 months or is that thinking? He just January 1st, I'm back at Sam's down with my baseball cap. Well, that's a new year, Joe. But he in the book, he says, I hate these props. I hate these props more than anything because he's focused every day on whether, you know, North Carolina

20:49Wilmington's going to cover like he doesn't have time for all this. And he's like, like every year we put these up and I run when you're like the props put up a punt prop. And the and the team that the underdog was plus was minus two and a half punts against the dog, which is anyone who had focuses on punts knows that's it's always correct to play plus two and a half. I don't care how big the underdog is because they stop punting in the fourth quarter, right? You know, unless they're Mike Tomman and then they punted anyways. Yeah, it's a whole different story. You agree with me that though the the prop that historically or one of the props that historically plumixes, folks is the three scores and a row thing? All the square balls. They love the public loves the the plus price. Love they always bet it at plus one 40. You know, I had I had a funny podcast. I love Jared Smith, right? And Jared Smith's like, oh, yeah, they the the squares bet this wrong and the and the and the pros bet minus, you know, the minus one 50 because they get the cheap price. Yes. Yes. And and and they did the research, which was great. And he said 62% of the super balls apparently have had the three straight scores. Yeah. And I'm like, but it shows price sensitivity. I'm like, you bet you better not lay minus one 60.

21:52Then you go, they might as one 50, you know, makes the difference. But the poster child I always use is the Rams greatest team on turf versus the Titans, low scoring, very close, 16, 16. And ultimately, the Rams get the win. Both teams score three consecutive times. In that amazing. Not just one, but both. What's it? Give us an example. You were saying off air. Give us an example of an advantage prop that you were talking about off air. Do you remember the one we were mentioning? I don't, but I, but I can tell you the no overtime was the greatest bet for years. You could like lay minus 600. And yes or no, whether it be no overtime, you could bet the no. People would bet four to one on the overtime. I went 50 straight super balls without one overtime. True odds are like 5%. So that one's a great. It just shows the needle and the haystack bad bets that that people make. And my first experience of a horrible bet, Sammy Winder, five to one to get first touchdown. Sammy Winder. And guy showed me his ticket. He's like, I can't believe I blew a buck on this guy. Was that against the skins? Sammy Winder one?

22:52I think it was against San Francisco. It was the 28th of the three one. And I was like, it probably should have been Denver the entire team five to one. Yeah, the first. Okay. Steve on more, more super ball props. Also some deals that he would like to share around Vegas. He's got a bunch on his mind. We still got to get to all of it. And we will. On the other side, it's at Numbers Gaming Feast of the Sports Bending Network. Numbers game on Feast said these sports betting network. Don't forget to check out the sharp plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily AI betting analysis real-time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros. Scan that QR code for more sharp plays.com and check it out. Gill Alexander, Steve Fesick. All right. We got a lot to get to here. We did remember.

23:55So here's an example of a prop that you can get the advantage on for the super ball. What is that? Coin toss. Forget the coin toss. Who gets the ball? All right. The second you find out whoever wins the coin toss is going to defer. The other team is going to get the ball. The second that that's confirmed, you know, Seattle is going to get the ball. Goal. We are betting Seattle to score first. We are betting Seattle first quarter. We are betting Seattle first half. We are betting Seattle to get the first first down. Now, everyone out there is going to push back and say, Fesick, they pull all those off. Those go off almost immediately or immediately not necessarily as super ball, right? Exactly. Because this is the one time of the year. Think about this. All you're doing is earning. Earn, earn, earn. You have hundreds of props. All right. Now, ideally, you would take these props and put them on separate category. But most books don't. So they have to hit the off switch. And nothing angers people more when they're about to get the window and the game hasn't started. Or they're trying to bet on the app. And it says, game has started. And you're watching a butt like commercial.

24:56Where's Andre? And so because of that, they tend to keep them all up because in the net is earn, earn, earn. And hey, you know, a few 20s fall off the conveyor belt from the people that are betting this information. Obviously, if you knew Seattle was going to get the ball first, then Seattle, even first half is a plus EVB. All right. Here's one more Fesickism or something that bothers Steve is. So a lot of folks say, I may have even said this in the past, by the way. Even how you say it, I guess, but a lot of people say, okay, you handicap the game, right? The game itself. Seattle versus New England come up with a projected score. And then some variation of and your prop betting should then follow suit, right? It should, you should bet the props accordingly. This drives you crazy. Yeah. So I've got a universe of people. I can't find anyone in the world in the world at post that can hit 53% against the spread. Not a one, not even the best better. And I just, and I just had lunch with John Jarvis.

25:56And I would argue he is the best guy the last few years in contests. Great guy. But at post and with these limits at, you know, 100,000 plus, my final projected score is Seattle 25 and New England 20.5. And if your projected final is anything significant, significant off that for both teams, you're probably being wildly optimistic about your ability to forecast versus the marketplace. So where I'm going is you can't say I think New England's going to win. Or I think Seattle's going to win by 10 and bet your props according to that, because that is not an accurate projection. Is, isn't the other way of saying that you should have humility in your projection? That if you, you can't be so sure because if you're, I mean, if you're so arrogant about your projection, then you'll just follow suit with all these props. But you should, if you have the humility in your projection, you will, you will know not to do that necessarily. Yes, but it's not the advice that everyone gives and, and, and, and, and to be fair, nothing is more aggravating than to say, oh, I knew Seattle was going to kill them.

26:59All week long, I knew Seattle was going to kill them. And then you get some really good rogue numbers on New England props, and you bet them, and you get your teeth kicked in. And it's very, it's like that hot stove that you put your hand on, you're like, never going to do that again. I'm never going to bet opposite my intuition. All right. You were not on the 15th annual Vegas lifestyle Megapod yesterday. Yes. So could you, uh, who we do a little, phasic makeup call here and, and you give us some thoughts here? Can I, can I list some? And you'll just expound? Yes. Uh, station casinos five, uh, this speaks for itself, I guess. A $5.95, cheeseburger and fries, fries at stations. So I'm going to give station casinos two thumbs up and one thumbs down here. Okay. So I'm not, I'm not overly biased at stations, is recognizing, hey, old school Las Vegas had great deals. The 99 cent from cocktail famously used to be at, um, you know, right down the street here at the Golden Gate. And it really brought people in and they still have like shrimp cocktail deals at, um, some of the smaller,

27:59like boulder highway type of casinos, but the strip has largely got away with it, but station has brought it back. So you can get that $5.95 24 seven cheeseburger and fry deal. It's quarter pounder. It's good. Um, you can get a $2.99 shrimp cocktail now at station. Same thing. So they're really, and that brings people in that it's, and it, and it shows they have a heart, you know, they're, they're catering to the locals. They're giving something back. I love that. Now the contrast here comes the however, then I'm driving by, it was just one of the stations on their marquee and this missed the mark and it's advertising $60 prime rib special. I don't like, right, right here, by the way, it's funny because downtown there is a, Al Cortez has a prime rib special. There's a Tony Rome, Rome has a like $16 stake and prime rib special, right? Or lobster special. So the idea of spending $60 for such a thing, not going to get it done. Well, I can go to the pass in downtown Old Henderson. And I use my players card and I get, I can get $9.99 prime rib dinner.

29:00Yes. All right. Let's go to Caesar's palace Monday through Thursday, 25% off for locals in restaurants. And you can do stuff with that, right? Yeah. So, and this applies to even the high instant. This applies to Nobo. It applies to alcohol. It applies to Peter Luger. I think it applies to Hell's Kitchen. That's just Monday through Thursday, but you can double stack promotions. So if you want the high-end experience, I really like the whole ambience of Peter Luger. It used to be roused in the bowels behind, you know, deep into Caesars. So they have a $50 lunch special where you get the burger, the Luger burger, you get the bacon, you get the Caesar salad and you get the hot fudge Sunday, which all of it's really good. All right. But now instead of $50, just say you're a local. Even if you're from Vermont, they really don't check. You get it for $40. So you're getting all that. If you bought, if you ordered that all the cart, my goodness, it might be 90. You know, so you can see what a good deal it is. One more advantage play. I get free drinks, because I'm, you know, a seven star if you're diamond elite. But you can't stack that promotion.

30:01So I go to the bar. I get my drink. I'm like, close me out, right? I get my free drinks. And then I get seated and then I'll, then I'll get my 25% locals discount and order my food. Yeah. What's this one? The Speaking of Caesars, getting a diamond card remains one of the great bargains and the path to getting a cheap cheaply is playing 10 times points on video poker. Yeah. So, so in, in Vegas, a lot of the places, you take a 60% haircut on your points when you're playing a good video poker. It's like a nine six jacks or better bobdancer.com. You'll explain all this. So, but if you go to Tahoe, they give the full amount, which is great. So like in, in a matter of an hour and a half, they like have, like a 50 play, 50 set machine that you can just play. And you, and it sounds insane. Meltzer loses mine. But you put through 25,000 and you should lose like 250 bucks if you're playing at a 1% edge, which is disadvantage. And it's less than that. And for $250, you get diamond at least plus boom. You're good to go. They'll comp you for your trip.

31:01And Vegas has become very bad with customer service. If you're not diamond, you're waiting to wait big, long, long wait to get in the hotel rooms and like just being able to wing into the diamond, you know, reservation areas, you cut the line and so many. And same with the restaurants that if you're frequently attending like even at the poker rooms and everything else, having at least a diamond status is really a nice perk. Okay, so back to the Super Bowl and free trip to the Bahamas and free trip to the Bahamas, which we brought up on the Megapod yesterday. Back to the Super Bowl. How does your Super Bowl Sunday look nowadays? Great question. So my best friend from Chicago always comes in and I tell him, John, I'll meet you like right about the end of the first quarter. So we'll go, I'll actually go to one of the parties. I know I'm giving up EV and I should be live betting. You know, I do, I live at every day of the year and on dozens of college basketball games, etc. So I bite the bullet and I go out and we'll either probably go to, we'll probably go the south point of all places

32:05because I love the off-strip places where I don't know what it costs just hardly anything and you can go into the big showroom and you know get the dogs and the wings and the beers for 20 bucks and why I will not pay $600 to sit in the second row as much as I love a place like Caesars Palace or the win. I have been priced out of that and I also just, I understand market supply and demand, but it's just not right in my eyes. Are you making what percentage of your bets are you making Super Bowl Sunday if you tend to lean underish on a lot of things? Yeah, that's a great question. So almost all of my under's, like team toles under, player props under, I would make the case, it's almost irresponsible to play the game under. If you're playing the game under and you get a rogue number, I know like crack loves the under 46 and a half, but you're going to get so many bargains on first half team toles. Second half team toles, okay, I'll take a break and bet a half time. You know, you'll get like plus 105 on all this stuff, why? Because the public, these are

33:07things the public always bets over on the team toles over. Do you think you'll have a position on the side when all is sitting down? Well, I got a pretty big position on New England on the money line and I don't like, and I think Seattle is going to win. So I will get rid of it and you know, this is the case where and people don't like this. If I got a middle myself, I'll do it. You know, if I have to, I think I'm going to get Seattle like at minus 196 and I'll have a nice scalp, but if I have to lay back Seattle minus 220 and eat a little big, there's no way I'm going to make it in on New England on a big money line. Although I did bet a lot on the NFC pre-flop because Will Hill said bet them at minus 115 and he should have bet more on that. He was the first person to bring that up. Should have bet more, Will. Yeah. You didn't bet at it all, though, did you? At the time. At the time, but then I got, I got in board. I aggregated and I laid him minus 130. I got there. The great aggregate. Right to the party. The great aggregator, everybody. Steve Fezick. At Fezick Sports. You being a polite on Fezick Sports these days? You getting your act together? I haven't been sending, we didn't have much, so I've been

34:10nice to you out because. Well, yeah, you did, because the last thing I saw was you killing these kids on Jeopardy for not knowing Alaska, but it's too ocean. Which state borders two oceans by processing elimination? It's not Nebraska, Texas, Hawaii or Florida. It has to be Alaska. Why do I have to kill those chargrater? Greater knows this Alaska. A numbers game on Fezick. These sports betting network. Hey, they're Kelly Bidley. What's up? Back here in studio. Yes, sir. You know, Alexander Kelly Bidley and everybody follow me on Twitter at beating the book. I really say that. Do I? I just say what I get tweets. But Kelly Bidley is K L. Yeah, excuse me, pardon me. Let's start. They got K E L L E Y. That's E Y on Kelly B Y D L O N on Bidley. Why you ever asked your parents why they said that why they named you Kelly with the E Y? Supposed to the Y. They just wanted to be different, man. It was the 80s. Yeah, man. Who knows? It was the. I got the safe Michael is the middle name. It was the 80s.

35:13Just a kiss. I wanted to change my mind. Change my mind. Oh, really? Yeah. I came Michael. Did you have a moment there as a kid? No, never, never. You liked Kelly. Yeah, I don't know if I liked it, but it's just like it's your name. Yeah. Go with the go with the hand that you're dealt, right, man? That's right. Go with the hand. I'm like, I don't think it's like, do people really grow up these days? Like not liking their name and think about changing it? Like that's pretty aggressive. I don't know how this generation feels about the names. We get tweets. Speaking of the book, I always appreciate it. I don't even know where I left off. Russell Smith, great interview with Riggins. Oh, I don't like this. Russell Smith. He says, but one guy can and did stop him on fourth and one. Reggie Kinlaw of the Raiders, the next year at Super Bowl 18. Your boys were the NFL's highest scoring team of all time that season. Then black Sunday happened. Oh, yes, it did. That was the worst day of my childhood. I've got a note for you. Actually, that's going to piss you off too. How about my computer? Refusing to let me type Riggins without auto correcting it to Wiggins. Oh, stop it. There's been way too much NBA typed into this computer over the years. Yeah.

36:20That's not cool. Those stuff's like, what's going on? Those Wiggins, those Wiggins wish they had the careers of the Riggins, if you know what I mean. What a treat this morning, by the way, John Riggins, Super Bowl 17 MVP was on earlier, huge treat for me. And then the two tennis matches, which we haven't talked about in a couple of hours now, but we went through it earlier on the show just the best in sport as Europeans call it. Carlos Alcarez, Novak Djokovic, getting by in five centers overnight was just unbelievable theater and the live betting Kelly of these matches. And again, this is for those who that's the thing about live betting, right? You have to be present. And sometimes it happens in the middle of the night. And you just got to recognize the opportunity. Now I could have gone against be big time. I mean, the first to say that, but it really worked out with Alcarez. And with tennis, it moves quick, right? There's not a lot of time to sit around and think about it. With tennis, it moves quick, because even the changeovers are quicker than you think they are. But that's when you got to get in. Jay Rudo used to run the sports book at MGM. He was the VP

37:23of racing sports at MGM. Jay Rudan, I would go around the country doing these MGM shows back in the day. Matt Brown and Dave Farrow would produce them. Matt Brown and Dave Farrow was in first class. We were Jay and I were in the back. But Jay would always laugh at me for live betting tennis, right? I'd be like betting the doll serving games, right? And be like, what are you doing? So it's it's something I do. But for the sport that you follow, just be present, man. That's half the battle. Show what they'll express and show it up is half the battle. But you got to know when the opportunities present themselves. I am on the Seahawks minus four versus the Patriots. Once again, Seahawks minus four minus one, 28. I thought this line was going to go to Seahawks six. Haven't seen that yet. That's why I grabbed a four quick yesterday on the show. Yannis aunted to Campo next team, aunted to Campo next team. Golden State Warriors. I bet it a Calcian plus four, 88. Now Kelly, you told me off air. This crash and has gone back up. So we did. Yeah, we pulled up right now. We did see a lot of Warriors love early this morning after Windhorse had

38:28his report about just that if he gets moved by the trade deadline, he just thinks they're they're by far the most set up to do it, which you and I discussed yesterday, right? We both agree. And then yeah, just checking it on this now. Golden State four to one. So almost back to where I had it. It's swung back to Miami and New York or both plus six sixty nine. It kind of swung back to that range. So clearly, there was a lot of people going in, bought a lot of Golden State, then kind of sold some. That's, I mean, again, these prediction markets are. So what happens? Kind of cool. Look at it. Some of that all takes as a Brian Windhorse report and then people go crazy and then they have the backlash or I should say the resistance happens. Like I like the history tracking, right? Because you can see where the spike happened in the morning. There's a lot of selling off on Golden State. Now, Windhorse has to be aware of his power in this, right? He is. I mean, I listen to that podcast regularly. Those guys are uncomfortable at this point with how with how much betting markets can move off of things. What's interesting about them, you're talking about Brian Windhorse. Give me the other Tim Bontemps. Tim Bontemps and McMahon. I would argue that more than

39:30any other like football podcast, set of experts or even baseball, they are for whatever reason, when it comes to betting markets, they are the most influential. It's interesting that it ended of being them. Well, the one, the one that I think that immediately jumps to mind for me is the, the MVP poll that Bontemps does. That's right. And that's like, that makes sense. That's right. He's pulling a lot of people that are directly involved in the voting. I think if you're smart, better, you should be aware of this stuff. It's been extremely predictive over the years. It's a great bit that they do, but it leads directly into betting. Yeah. Yep. All right. You've got the Drake May bet here. Still going? Yeah. Drake May over 33 and a half rushing yards. I have not added anything for the Super Bowl yet. Look, I mean, Seattle, I'll end up with some type of bet on Seattle, but waiting to see where that goes. Like you said, man, you and I usually don't say things like this, especially in a big game like the Super Bowl. I really thought we'd see six on this game, but I guess there's still time. There's still time. I really thought we would. So that's all I got no, no NBA tonight, kind of looking at the raptors a little bit. I haven't

40:33played anything yet though. Chris Velika was on earlier from Fox Sports, pardon me. Saboleka Rabakina. He's going over four double faults combined for the big server that is Rabakina and Saboleka who's got her serve game on point these days over four double faults combined from Chris on that college. Oops. He's got Illinois to make the final four three to one. Gonzaga to make the final four at plus three 40 C J car. Notedame to win the Highsman at eight to one and Kyle Bradish of the Orioles 50 to one to win the American League Siam. I always like him. Chris comes on. He's always going to be heavy of picks across different sports. Great slain. I guess on Friday. Dalin Cuff. He's on Michigan State, Moneyline, even money and a couple Ivy League plays from him tonight. The emotional hedge because he's a Columbia guy. He's taking the Penn Quakers plus the five and a half points. He thinks his Columbia squad will win, but he's taking Penn plus five and a half and then Yale and Dartmouth taking each other on under one 53 and a half from Dalin earlier

41:34on the show and then Steve Fezick showing up with some plays. Fezick has Michigan State plus one quick to make the disclaimer that he knows. Give Dalin's play is a little better than his. Yeah. I could see it in Fezick's eyes. What I was doing, he caught on to what I was doing. Yeah. Because if the if the guest doesn't provide us with a number, I try to be nice and I give him the best number that I see. Yeah. But Fezick rightly so. It was not it's not one of the most widely available numbers. So he's got Michigan State plus one. He's got Drake May first quarter under 46 and a half passing yards and he's got total points in the second half over 22 and a half points. Hopefully hopefully you heard his reasoning for both of those in that game. So Fezick firing of that. Then he was talking about some prediction market stuff he was doing that, you know, not on the board here where he's got New England positions on the money line. He's might middle himself in the end with some stuff. I don't know. I think Chris just told me too. He saw he saw a Donald and plus one 60 for MVP on calcium. Are you serious? Oh wow.

42:34Can we talk about that for a second? Because again, two weeks to talk about this and I try to as the two weeks go on, we try to hit on every little point MVP voting for the Super Bowl. We haven't said this this week, even in your absence, Kelly, when you were gone for two days. Hey, real quick, more money bet on Yannis next team or Super Bowl MVP. Yannis next team. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, you're right. Because that's where the prediction prediction market is the only place that offers that pretty much not the only place. And don't cut yourself running for that Donald number. Plus one 22. Oh, there you go. That's how quickly it moves. So Super Bowl MVP voting, right? This is the other thing we should kind of throw into the mix because I've been saying all week and I think Will Hill said the same thing, which is I think if Seattle wins, right? The path for someone besides Donald to win to me is so narrow. Like what has to happen for them not to go with the Donald narrative? This guy that people have crapped on for his whole career. Even last year when they had the great year, he saw the two bad games at the end. What a story this is. Drake make great

43:36story with New England, probably not a natural play besides him on the New England side. But those paths, I could see people voting against May sooner than I could them against Donald if Seattle wins, if that makes any sense. But I just want to make this point. Remember with MVP voting, the votes kind of come in earlyish, right? They don't you don't see them waiting till the end of the game on some of these. So sometimes if something happens late in the game, it doesn't really factor in to some of these votes. That has always been a moving target with MVP voting. They used to by the way, they used to announce it while the game was going on. I'll try to pull up the details now. I believe it's like at the two minute warning. They start ushering people to be the two minute warning. Now think how ridiculous that is. Yeah. That all these NFL games that get decided within the last two minutes, there could be some hero, right? Last second pass, sketch, you know, rush, whatever it is,

44:37sack, fumble, recovery, whatever it is kickoff return. And it won't matter if it happens that late. The members of the 16 person panel are asked to submit their ballots around the time of the two minute warning. Members can write down one name for each team leaving a note to select the pair for the winning team. Members are also free to quickly change their selection in the final two minutes. If the game gets free to change, how many do you think actually do that I wonder? I think if something wildly changes in the game, I would hope. Yeah, but we don't know for a fact. They don't want to look like idiots. Oh, they look like idiots recently. I think in some of these. Anyway, just another little note to think about when you bet on such a thing. Prop points with John Hansen next. Enjoy from Veece and the sports betting network.