A Numbers Game | January 27, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story of Alex now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill I like Xander gone V sent our number three of a numbers game at V sent these sports betting network V sent calm game plus I hard radio YouTube TV Series X of Channel 158 Gill Alexander Danny Higgins in for the ailing a Kelly Bidlin who is suffering from migraines this morning was yesterday a still suffering from them. So he is a he's a out was his designation today questionable. This is designation for tomorrow. We'll see if that gets upgraded or down greater. We we do still have doubtful as part of our designations still to come this hour Ben Wilson will join us the most famous person that will ever come out of V sent non stormy monotony market. Yes, Ben Wilson will join us a little later on talk Super Bowl 60 with us talk Australian open talk about everything he's doing play by play these days. One of the great guys all over the industry Oh, yeah, and Danny's where you're standing at this place, right? Yeah, there you go. The Ben Wilson mansion here in in Las Vegas.

1:03All right, I have I was so looking forward to this segment because yesterday here's how this came about yesterday on the show I just you know I said Sunday in our group chat as the Patriots are getting to Super Bowl. I openly asked the group chat. I was like I wonder if like the Patriots the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl. I said that out loud and then I decided, you know, hey, it's the old Annie Hall Woody Allen thing where I could pull Marshall McCluen out from behind the curtain and ask him for the real evaluation of this. And our Marshall McCluen in this case happens to be Aaron shots the creator of DVOA who is the chief analytics officer at FTN sports and Aaron is kind enough on the spur of the moment to come on the show this morning to put all of this in perspective. He joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You could follow him on Twitter at a shots NFL that's SCH ATZ Aaron good morning to you sir. Hey, good morning guys. How are you today? Do it very well. And this also comes because Patriots fans. I don't know if you know this is a lifelong Patriots fans. They tend to be on the more sensitive side Aaron. Have you found this in your experience?

2:08You are being one of them. I kind of know. So yes, I was curious. Okay. So that's the hypothesis. Well, we'll save where the Patriots rank for last year. We'll go through the worst 10 teams by DVOA to make the Super Bowl of all time now. Of all time would mean there's 120 of these, including the Seahawks and the Patriots from this year, but DVOA goes back to 1978. So I guess we're talking about 96 teams total. I guess is what that means. Yeah, it sounds about right. Yep. Okay. All right. I give you the floor. Who's who's you want to do this 10 through one or one through 10? How do you want to do it? Let's do it from 10 to one. Okay. So the 10th worst was the 2001 Patriots. The first Tom Brady Super Bowl victory. The first Tom Brady Super Bowl team, although that team had something very much in common with this team, which is that their worst games were at the beginning of the year when blood. So was the start. Uh-huh. Okay. And of course, Adam Venetary with the heroics there at the end of that Super Bowl. All right. Number nine.

3:121993 bills from when the NFC was so much better than the AFC in general. That was a cowboys loss. That one. That one was the cowboys. Yeah. Yeah. That was the I think the 52 to 10 or something like that one after the 93 season. Okay. The 93 bills. Um, I'm not sure if that was the Leon let Dan Don BB Super Bowl. Maybe but that was, uh, yeah, I don't remember whether that was 92 or 92 or 93. I can't remember either. They blended with each other. Okay. The 93 bills. The ninth worst team by DVOA to make the Super Bowl. Number eight. They have number eight one. That's the 2011 Giants. Oh, wow. That was the only team in Super Bowl history that was outscored by its opponents in the regular season. So the eighth worst team by DVOA to make the Super Bowl actually won the Super Bowl, the 2011 Giants who beat your Patriots. Of course, famously the 2011 Giants. Wow. And that was so that was not the beating the 2007 undefeated Patriots. That was so that was nothing. That's coming. Oh, it's coming. Okay. What's next. Let's go to number seven.

4:23Number seven is the 1987 Redskins. That is throwing out the strike games. So that's a team that was eight and four in non-strike games. So obviously a very weird year. The Broncos weren't that good that year either where they nine and three or eight and four non-strike. I thought they were talking. I believe Washington was eight and four without the strike. Okay. My memory says nine and three, but you might be right. Yes. But you know what at least we have from that year though, Aaron. The scab three games. They made movies about it. So there's that. We have a movie. That's right. That's that's all right. Okay. Number number six worst. Number six is the worst regular season team to ever win the Super Bowl. The 2007 Giants. The biggest upset NFL history. So the sixth and eighth worst teams to ever make of the Super Bowl are the best two teams to ever win it. The 2007 Giants at six of the 2011 Giants at eight. The 2007 Giants. Of course, the team that beat the undefeated Patriots. Famously one of the greatest teams. Of all time, if not the best, that was the David Tyrier year. And who made the great catch in the 2011 of the long. Who was that on the side of Manningham? Manningham. That's right. Manningham, Mario Manningham. All right. Number five worst. Number five is the 2000 Giants against the Ravens. Oh, I agree. The Kerry Collins led Giants. Yeah, they were bad. Though they, they crushed the Vikings in the NFC championship. Remember, it's like 41 to three or something or 41 and nothing. Something like that.

5:53All right. They're number five and they got crushed by the Ravens. Number four worst team by DVOA to make the Super Bowl. The 2021 Bengals. Oh, really? Wow. Yeah. Do you remember them? They had some big losses. Yeah. Okay. The 2021 Bengals who famous them when they got to the playoffs. The first team they beat is the number one seeded Titans, even though the Titans sack burrow nine times. And they overcame that. All right. Number three worst. Now we are into teams that are actually negative that are actually below average in the regular season of the 2003 Carolina Panthers led by Jake Delomb. Didn't they comported themselves very well in the Super Bowl? Didn't they? Yeah, they almost won the Super Bowl. They lost on a last minute field goal against the Patriots. Tom Brady's second title. Correct. If I'm not mistaken. Yeah. Number two worst. Number two is a weird one. The 1979 Rams. The Rams were really, really good from 1972 to 1978. Really good. And then they had this off year where they were

7:04nine and seven. And that's the only year that they actually made it to the Super Bowl. And then they lost to the Steelers. It's true. 72 to 78. It was like the James Harris sort of Rams era. They were always good. It was like the bills and the Ravens of the last few years where they were just good year after year after year. And they just couldn't get over the hump. That's right. And then 1970 that was Vince Farragamo was their quarterback in the Super Bowl when they lost to the Steelers. Yeah. Was that pre-deeder Brock post-deeder by camera or Deeder Brock fits. Deeder Brock is his night is a 1985. Okay. The years later. So that was a Vince Farragamo Rams team of loss to the Steelers. In the it was at the last of the four Chuck Null Super Bowl titles. I believe so. Yeah, it was. Okay. And the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl per DVO is the worst team that ever made the Super Bowl almost won it. And that is the 2008 Arizona Cardinals with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. That team lost to the Matt Castle Patriots. 47 to

8:16seven in week 16. 47 to seven and then went on to the Super Bowl. And it were it not for the Santonio homes toe tap in the corner. They may win that Super Bowl, right? Wow. That's right. That was the Larry Fitzgerald dashed to the end zone that put the Cardinals up. I want to say with less than two minutes left. And then yep. Big Ben and the Steelers came back. What's that total rank number that way? So here's the here's the list for those who are watching. That's how much they ranked out of all the teams of that year. So Arizona was 23rd out of 32. Oh my God. Wow. So again, if you if you were the one of the worst teams to win the Super Bowl twice, you've actually wanted in the in the top 10 worst and a couple of three 1987 redskins to Oh, 1987 red. Of course, the Doug Williams 35 points in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos Redskins of 1987. So three of those top 10 won the Super Bowl and a couple others. The first and third worst, the 2008 Cardinals in the 2003 Carolina Panthers came awfully close. There's a couple other close calls in there as well. Okay, which then

9:19begs the question in the whole reason while why we're doing this, Aaron, Aaron shot the creator of DVOA, which analyzes every play of national football league play all the way back to the 1978 season against league average granular level of analysis. Where then do these 2025 New England Patriots rank among the 96 teams that DVOA has tracked. They rank 81st out of 96. So the 16th worst. Yes, so the 16th worst, but with the kind of asterisk, they have been much better in the second half of the season. I have a rating I call weighted DVOA that's weighted towards recent games using that rating. They had the biggest difference between weighted DVOA and regular DVOA of any playoff. Team ever. Ooh, okay. So there's one for that. That's how bad they were in the first couple weeks. Okay, so overall 16th worst, but way trending upward based on the second half of the season. If you look at weighted DVOA, they're much more like a typical Super Bowl team.

10:36Weighted DVOA much more typical, but overall, overall 16th, 16th worst. Yeah. Okay. And as a Patriot's fan and as the guy who created this stat, it all kind of checks out to you, whether I test you think all that, that sounds about right. I win either way, either Seattle, my number one team wins the whole thing, thus validating everything I've said about the most season. Right. Or the Patriots, the team I root for wins the whole thing, thus validating me personally. So I already won the Super Bowl. You want shots. You're winner. Everybody. That's the upshot of this segment. And again, we're fresh. Everybody's memory. These sea hawks who were number one in DVOA this year were what the seventh greatest DVOA team of all time. Seventh best regular season team I've ever measured back to 78. Yeah. Wow. Aaron, I cannot thank you enough. We usually have our quarters. And we don't even think of it coming on, but this demanded it because people went nuts when they even dare to ask the question. So thank you for being the marshal McCluen and putting this all in perspective for us. I appreciate it. You are welcome. You are welcome. I like under in the Super Bowl. He likes under there. Where can people go? FTN? FTN fantasy.com. There it is. Thank you, Aaron.

11:47I appreciate Ben Wilson. Next on a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Veece and Pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Veece and Pro. Veece and Pro annual subscription when you sign up using promo code ANG ANG as in. I forget what code. That's all right. You come to face the pro annual subscriber bets are all you're long with full access to our daily best best from Veece and hosting guests real time draft Kings and circuit betting splits AI powered prop tools and matchup analysis 24 seven video and full show replays on the Veece and watch appless all our betting guides and expert picks for the Super Bowl and upcoming March madness go miss out on this big game deal.

13:01Visit Veece and dot com slash subscribe use promo code ANG to save $60 off a Veece and Pro annual subscription today. That's V S I N dot com slash subscribe. How great was Aaron shots. That was awesome. It's perfection. Awesome. Hey, listen, don't get mad at me, Patriots fans. That's your boy right there. And he said if you do weighted TV, it's a different story. Yes, but overall your 16th worst. We get tweed speed in book. Anthony Ventresca doesn't seem like the Steelers are going to pursue Rogers coming back. Looks like they may try to develop Will Howard and give him a shot. Yeah, he's quoting according to Pittsburgh Steeler owner Art Rooney, quoting the folks over at sports key. They says new head coach Mike McCarthy believes Will Howard has quote tremendous upside and is excited about the opportunity to develop him within the offense. That's via behind the steel curtain. JD and Florida. I have a healthy future on Musetti. Do you recommend a head or take him tonight plus 220? Well, I'll say it again. I think he has value of plus 220. If I didn't have the plus 650, I would probably bet Musetti today as well. But because it's no vague joke, which on the other side of the court, I'm not doubling up on Musetti. I have far too much respect for what no vac can do. And even like I was saying early, even if he's up to two sets, you're still always wearing because it's wary because it's no vac on the other side.

14:14This is from Doug Wedge. Hey, Doug, he says, I'm going to go with the Rodney line when describing Gil's joy in the air and shot segment where they talk about how terrible the Patriots are. Hey, judge, cheer up, will you? Fairway Fred 1996 Super Bowl Don BB of Buffalo stepping out of bounds by six inches at the two yard line on fourth and one Cowboys cover the 10 and a half Super Bowl memories. Where are the Rex Grossman led bears team that lost the Colts? Come on. Yeah, did make the top 10 words. Maybe it was between 11 and 15. GV New Jersey, New York, Kelly, he says, one, Kelly Bidlin, get well soon, two. I'm the guy who did the Excel grid for the formula last year. My bad. I thought we had another week to go. No, that's cool. No, I appreciate that New Jersey, New York. Please do that again this year. And three regarding the 2000 giants. Wellington mayor after the 41 and nothing game says that the worst team to make the Super Bowl fifth worst ain't far off. Is that right that the the giants owner said that about his own team after they beat the Vikings by 41 to nothing heading into the zoo world? Did he really say that?

15:17I do not recall that. That's incredible if he did. Wow. Talk about a lack of confidence. So we mentioned earlier, Joe Brady is the new headman with Buffalo Bills being promoted from offensive coordinator. Well, pardon parcel with that was that Brian Dable if we looked at it when we did look at the calcium markets, Danny, before this we did Brian Dable former giants head coach with former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator. He was the favorite or the least the short shot to get that job. And obviously he's not going to get that now. Well, there is some Brian Dable news then on the heel on the heels of Joe Brady getting the bills head coaching job. The Tennessee Titans this from Adam Shafter. The Titans are now set to hire former giants head coach Brian Dable as their offensive coordinator contingent upon him not getting the Raiders head coaching job. So that's the other thing we've seen in this coaching carousel. Yes. These conditional things, Riley Brian four is like, listen, you're going to be our defensive coordinator. But if you get the Steelers or Ravens job, cool. I don't know about you, but I feel like I haven't seen this. Is this a newer thing feels like the first year I ever remember this happening or at least as many.

16:24It's like there's so many. Not this many. Yeah. But so Brian Dable is going to be the Titans OC unless he gets the Raiders job, which you were telling me off air he just interviewed for. Yeah, he finishes second interview with the Raiders today or as Shafter tweeted out about an hour ago. That he finishes second interview with the Raiders. So and then this news just came out. So depending on how that goes. And then if we go back to the Buffalo because we want to you and Kelly went over that yesterday. Dable was the short shot at, you know, just under two to one. You could have got Joe Brady 16 the one yesterday. Sixteen. We set it on areas today. Joe Brady was 16 to one. Yes. Which shows you that with a lot of those calcium markets, right? There's a lot of inside information on a lot of stuff. But then there's a lot of stuff that have no idea either. Sixteen to one Joe Brady 24 hours ago as we talked about on this show. Ladies and gentlemen, it's always a pleasure to invite this gentleman on the show when I say gentlemen, I mean gentlemen. Again, in the non-story Bonnetoni category, he will be the most famous person ever come out of season. It's the great Ben Wilson joining us on the show today, who's once again his Twitter handle has way too many underscores and it's Ben underscore Wilson underscore one.

17:30Ben joins us now courtesy of aggressive gas line. How you doing, man? I'm good, Gil. Thank goodness for the winner without market. That's, you know, that's a very gracious ad ad by you on that. How is your how's your sleep schedule holding up? I mean, we're week and a half in. I mean, it's we're we I can see the finish line. Like we've just got a few more of these to grind out. I I don't do we have these shreddingers cat analogy earlier on a tweet. I don't do that. I try to stay up and watch all of this. Now yesterday, I nodded off sitting on the couch like an old man and I woke up. And Svitalina was already up a set in a break and I'm like, oh, this is good. So I didn't quite make it the whole way, but then I watched, you know, dead of night. But you're right. As great as this has been as much money as we're making on this stuff with like, please finish line get here already because this enough is enough of this already. How has the tournament gone for you? No, look, it's I I didn't go into the tournament with a lot of with a lot of futures positions and I it's funny. Like something we were talking about off air, though, the way the usually you get used to just over the years, right?

18:35The numbers that you have the last 52 week data, it generally blows up in your face because it's a new season. You get a lot of uncertainty, a lot of volatility in this tournament. There's a lot of upsets. Has it really been the case so far as you sit here? I mean, it's been pretty much all chalk now that we're down to the quarters and a couple of the semis are set. And in a weird way, like it's almost been like an inverse tournament for me, betting where normally I'm, you know, I'm kind of heavy early and then by the time you get down to the quarters and semis, there's just some oddball matchups and I tend to be staying away, but I'm more interested now. And just because we've we've got a lot of data, we have a lot of history between the matchups that are set and actually betting now that we're down to this point. And so I'm actually glad that you were just talking about the tweet you got with the Musetti and the hedging on the quarter like I didn't have anything liable going at least into that quarter. So it's nice for me to be able to sit here kind of with a clean flame of mine having watched these guys who I thought if the numbers held up should be here, but we know that doesn't always happen. And now they are, which makes me really excited here for what's going to be an awesome couple of days between the quarters and semis.

19:41And then the lineup today is just the second half of the quarter is just completely stacked. It's awesome. It is awesome, but we were talking off air. It is really that because it's been so chalky the ability to pick off the few dogs that have gotten here again. I only had one play last night and one play the night before, which was fiddling the last night as a big dog Musetti as the dog of the night before. If you have been able to perfectly pinpoint the few dogs that have gotten home and have a profitable tournament. I mean, good on you as well, because I almost feel like in many ways this has been. It hasn't been by number yet, the most profitable tournament all time, but I feel like it's almost the greatest achievement because of the chalkiness of it. And based on the fact that I usually bet dogs as well, I see as we go to your plays that you and I are sympathetic on both Jesse Pagula and Egas Fiat today. I the running joke on this show has been I come on and usually I'm I'm making some sort of case for Reena Sabelink in the future's market or I'm betting against Ega because it's usually just because of the price, right?

20:42And I have been. Where that you labeled as the Ega or just like me immensely one or the other. No, no, of course, of course. Yeah. And it's funny because I was not planning on betting this Fiat tech Rebok and imagine whenever they play it usually get a banger. It's in an awesome clash of styles over the years. They're pretty much even head to head numbers are pretty much even. And when I saw this open last night, I think, okay, yeah, Fiat tech minus one twenty one twenty five. That's totally that's a totally fair price to me. I would have had her as you know, the slightest of favorites considering how her game has translated and transformed so well on hard courts here over the last year. And so to illustrate that she was great four and one on hard four and one head to head three and one on hard against Rebok in the last year. What the only loss being at the WTA finals in Riyadh, which who knows how much. And I mean, that was a seem like an event worse Fiat that kind of went in the tank is that that week went on. But then the market shifted overnight. And this was the one where I just completely disagree here with the market move. I mean, everybody's on her back in a this is flipped now to the point where Rebok it is a dollar thirty favorite.

21:45You can get Sviattek plus one ten. And it's just a numbers play for me, Gil. I mean, last 52 weeks. The players between the two of them. Sviattek and Rebok in a basically dead even. I mean, you know, Sviattek will always have a deficit as far as serving goes when she's taking on the sort of caliber of Rebok in a. But Ega to me makes up for that and then some with the return game and let's not forget. I mean, the big weakness of Rebok and it has been the return of serve on these super fast conditions. She usually makes up for it with her serve, but with the, you know, the added velocity. Ega's picked up on her service game. I see this as a, you know, it's still a clash of styles, but maybe not, you know, so drastic as we used to phrase it at. And it's just worth a pick off here of a short dog and, you know, just full full disclosure. I mean, the way I bet the women's game specifically, I'm going to be more of a dog or past guy. And then in the best of three, you have a lot more opportunities for some of the in-game markets to go the other way and take the other side with the plus money. So I thought this was a perfect way to start out and have have the position on Sviattek as a dog.

22:47And then we can talk in the segment. A similar philosophy really on Pagula as a dog as well against the Nisimova. Yeah, we have to bend play on Pagula also is play on the men's side. He has one today in the quarters. And he has one already looking ahead at the semis college hoops. Ben does a lot of play by play. So maybe he can give us a team or two mid majorish or less perhaps or under, if you will, that we should keep an eye on. And of course, his thoughts on Super Bowl six. You can't do a segment without that. Next on the numbers game, I'd be so these sports betting network. Danny, I'm bearing the headline all morning. Got to let people know top of the hour after we're done you and me. The most memorable sports betting moments of 2025. Yes. On our air 1 p.m. Eastern 10 a.m. Pacific hosted by our own Tim Murray. These are the don't miss. Alright, so you can't miss. I should say the unforgettable moments of 2025.

23:51The top 10 most memorable moments of the year. Betting wise, 2025. The biggest swings the wildest finishes. The most unforgettable tickets. Relive the moments. Betters won't stop talking about. It's coming up next. Only on visa and hosted by Tim Murray. Can't wait to tune in for that. That's going to be awesome. Very excited. That's also a countdown as well, I believe. That's over 10 to 1. They've already listed 11 through 20. Yes. On the website. Yes, you can go. If you want to check out 20 through 11, but 10 to 1 with Tim coming up at the top of the hour. I just want to read this one tweet because we had the Wellington Mara. Well, I lied. Let's retweet to but the Wellington Mara. This is from Steve New York football giants 42. He says for context with the Giants owner's quote. This is back in 2000. Wellington Mara said he was mocking the media saying they're the worst one seed ever by saying. Oh, we were the worst one seed ever. Today we became the worst team to make the Super Bowl in two weeks. Let's be the worst team to ever win the Super Bowl. So that's what that makes more sense that he was mocking the media and doing that. And then skits. So skits. Oh 360. I don't know if you mentioned this, but you see Coco smashing her racket after the match.

24:54She says she needs to let the frustration out helps her process the loss thoughts on this. Well. If that's what she says, I'm going to take her out of word. She thought. I think she thought she was going away from the camera. I was talking to Darnell about this this morning. Like when I first heard about it, because I didn't see it. I saw this morning when I came in and I was like, Oh, was she smashing the racket on the court? No, I was like, she was trying to like hide and just get out the frustration inside behind like a skill well. Yeah, but with the cameras caught. They got it. Yeah, they got it. Hey, man, we won the bed. I was like, Hey, Coco, let it out. However you want. Ben Wilson kind enough to join us once again. Ben Wilson, not only a visa veteran, but Ben who joins the courtesy of the progressive guest line again. You can follow him at Ben underscore Wilson underscore one does play by play all over the country. What kind of jobs have you been doing lately, Ben? Play by play. Yeah, this weekend, Gil NLL lacrosse ESPN plus TSN plus north of the border. That's a big Canadian draw MLS preseason two weeks or now from beautiful Palm Springs.

25:54I'll get it. You know, I'll check out Indian Wells for you before you head out there and then college baseball season starts in three weeks from Arlington, Texas where I'll basically be sequestered in a in the Rangers ballpark, like a cot on the the press box floor and then college basketball NBA G Lee kind of interspersed in between all that. So we're doing a lot right now. Part is working guy and media. And by the way, I will say with Ben here what I have said to you over Ben is spectacular at what he does. And sometimes I'll be sitting there in the YouTube TV will be running and all of a sudden, I'm like, is that Ben Wilson and it's like a replay of an arena football league game? I'm like, that's Ben doing his thing. Um, so we'll get to your cause. We'll get to some college basketball, finish up the tennis if you would. So you're on Eagle. You talked about that. You're also on Jesse Pagula. We are both on the same to what do you feel about Pagula today? Yeah. And look, honestly, the market is certainly just to me kind of centralizing its sort of position on the recent success of an isomola, but you kind of go under the hood here and you look at the last 52 weeks of data. I mean, Pagula and an isomola are basically been the same player, both on a serve.

26:59A percentage points one return percentage points one. So again, it's more just a play on the number here. I thought this should have been probably like a dead pick. Maybe Pagula, like minus 115, the slightest of favorites who has who's never lost to an isomola, three and oh, head to head. And and yet I'm seeing this in a match that I expect to be kind of a seesaw back and forth. But Pagula, it's interesting how it's really until this season, I feel like Gil had never been given the respect in the betting market. She was due correlative to her actual numbers. And I think maybe that's just because of her style. It's overwhelming like huge power game. It's it's sort of in the middle, so to speak, like she's got good serve numbers, but she doesn't blow you away. She's also a really solid returner doesn't blow you away with that either. But she's never been a player who who is really like played down to her level of competition. She's always been somebody who has been able to handle the player she's supposed to be. It was always the punching up against the, you know, the sabbelinkas of the world, the eagles of the world that she would really struggle to get over the hump on.

28:01And while an isomola has gotten is kind of getting the credit for okay, she has taken this huge leap over the last really six to nine months since Wimbledon last year. At the same time, I mean, Pagula had arena sabbelenca. I wouldn't say dead derites, but she had her exactly where she wanted her. She was up a set in the US open semi final. We could have had Pagula and an isomola at the US open last year. To me, it's a little bit heavy on the market love for an isomola still don't believe that Pagula's numbers are getting the respect they're doing. And again, it's another thing where with the women's game, it's so easy to, if you expect kind of a back and forth match, you start the match out having the dog in pocket, you can get plus money on the other side playing this in game. So that's why I went with Pagula there at the plus 109. I think there's such a great point in both Pagula and Sfiatek in this and what you're talking about, which is Serena Williams could fill up an arena, right? She could if you knew Serena Williams was playing will be sold out in a second. She had this great curating, as they say, Coco is kind of that player now on tour. She has tons of endorsements.

29:03And so no way Osaka was that player three, four years ago in the case of both Ega and Jesse and Ega has won more majors than all of these players, right? They do not have big personalities. They are not widely known unless you're a tennis heart of the thing about Ega Sfiatek was one who has what six majors, right? Is if you went on this casino, nobody knows who she is. So that allows us as better as to exploit lines and markets that are never really what they ought to be. And so I think that's a that's a good point for players like that. And I'm not sure if there's an equivalent in another sport to this kind of thing. Players of this good being treated the way that they are without these massive personalities. You are playing how are you playing Musetti and Joker today? Yeah, this was more just kind of a fun like pizza money play here, but we have not we've not yet seen the contractually obligated. Jokovic get down a set, you know, angrily yelling at the crowd and it's right. And yeah, just acting like a 12 year old petulant little boy out there. Yet Musetti does have a history of kind of getting under Jokovic's skin.

30:07Because up to set the none is really an unknown at the French open back in 2020, 22 and Jokovic eventually just ground him to a pulp and won that match in five. But this I just went with Mocetti to win the first set Jokovic to win the match. You get plus 380. I thought of it as, you know, Mocetti gets up early here like the endgame market is it is pretty respectful as you were talking about earlier guilt towards Jokovic. It's not just going to completely flip on its head. Even if you said he could be up a set in a break and you're not going to get plus a 380 on Jokovic coming back the other way. So I felt just to take a stab on that. And then for the semis with the Carlos Algrés Alexander's Vera of match. I think we've kind of seen the proof in the pudding here of clearly a focused extremely sharp determined Algrés like he's got his he's got in a one hand already one foot already in the finals box. And up to me that even though the numbers might not be incredibly wide against Vera of last 52 weeks. I'm looking at what we're watching right now. And I'm a believer that Algrés with how sharp he's looking on serve, especially I see him wipe in the floor here.

31:10So I took a plus 125 stab on Algrés to win in straight sets and see him getting the job done. He's man has he looked good or what. Yeah, so far through this run. And I don't think he makes any mistakes here. Insane performance last night against him in the North real quick before we get to Super Ole 60. I know your play by play. Give me one college basketball team that you think is way better than people know they are. Maybe they can even win a tournament game. I leave it to you. Give us a name of a team that sticks out. Yes, I'm doing a lot of WCC. There are seven teams in the top 120 of net rating in the WCC this year. So it's a way deeper better league than a lot of people think it's not just Gonzaga. It's not just St. Mary. So by the way, they play each other this weekend in Spokane. It's going to be an awesome game. Santa Clara is 43rd and overall Ken Palm. They are one of the best offense of rebounding two point shot making teams in the country. They've got a couple of guys who were just cheat codes on the glass. Herb Sendeck is the coach. Longtime vet was at Arizona State and the James Harden in the James Harden years. Now he's at Santa Clara. They have a former G league night guy who I covered like four years ago.

32:16Cherry Darlin. That's how weird this the current air of college basketball is he actually plays for them. He's really solid. This is a Santa Clara team that nobody talks about just because the other two teams that are behemoths in the WCC and have been for so long. But it would not shock me if the WCC gets three bids. I don't think that's unrealistic at all. Santa Clara would be probably like it, you know, like it would be like in the 12 seed range if they were to get in. But they are putting together a really impressive case to be made for for being in that mix. So that's that is a sleeper for me out of the WCC. Be fighting Steve Nash and Jalen Williams is of Santa Clara. All right. Last minute. Super Bowl 60. What do you got? I've not made a bet yet. It's interesting. I mean, I made the game three and a half and a lot of that is just because I'm factored in mostly regular season numbers. Which have Drake made it by completion percentage over expectation. EPA per play all that the number one quarterback. I just think it's interesting how in the three playoff games he has played in against three top five defenses. His that exact same number that I measured is number one of all the quarterbacks in the league is on par with

33:23Shudder Sanders quarterback like number 31 from the regular season. And then on the other side, you have Sam Darnell, whose numbers in the two playoff games are basically the same as what Drake made it all season, which was enough to be the number one quarterback. So I sit there and I go, all right, well, I feel like the value is on New England a little bit here yet. It's hard for me to ignore, you know, just how starkly contrasting the quarterback differences have been in the playoffs. Yet having all having said that I actually kind of trust Mike Brable to scheme up some offense here for New England through the air here and I'll be fascinated to see once the passing props come out based on how bad may was last time out. If there's actually some some wagers to be had on his overs passing yards wise. All right, Ben Wilson everybody. Ben, where's the next play by play appearance again? Where is it? NLL across Asha what fire wolves and Las Vegas desert dogs. Asha what baby? Thank you, Ben. Appreciate it, man. We'll come back when we cap the best next all the numbers game. A number is game on fee said these sports betting network back on the numbers game live from circle resort casino downtown Las Vegas.

34:39Danny Higgins that are in for Kelly billet. Let's give a round of applause for Danny Higgins everybody nice job today. Thank you. Appreciate it. You're welcome. Yeah, we got the cranberry scoop in there. We got everything in the scoop in laws. We got the cranberry. I'll tell you what I do not miss you. You went to school up there in Massachusetts. I do not miss the snowstorms up there. Oh, dude. No, Norista. No, I don't miss that. Hey, Gill, you know what's happening tomorrow? Norista. I'm like, what did you say? Uh, we get tweets being the book Brian M. By the way, Kelly with the migraine. That is why he's out today. We hope he gets better. Hope he's able to join us tomorrow on the show. Brian and Brian Morianna. Uh, Danny Higgins the chime in during Kelly's absence. Ben Wilson needs a factor in the financial implications for Pagul to win this match. She may not survive without the winning. So so Brian M saying that you should have taken the Kelly bill and roll and say, God, I hope she'll be okay. She loses this match. The air to a $7.5 billion fortune, Jesse Pagula. How about her? Give her props, though, man. She could have just, you know, she could just sat back and been like, I'm going to get my inheritance. No, instead she's one of the top five players in the world.

35:44Yeah, for her. And I want to hear. Oh, she had country club access. So there's so many other people. They end up top five in the world. Come on. Just because you have the acts. It doesn't mean you're actually going to turn out to be good. Good. Right. Nemesis enforcer, a Pagula match is like watching paint dry. Hey, man, as long as we're winning, I'm good with it. Drew Bridges, Drew from Boy C. Ben's college basketball surprise, Gil, I hope to see you again at the WCC tournament. Yes, you will see me at the West Coast Conference tournament. Ben Wilson will be doing the play by play. Maybe we'll import wish never to heckle the players. It'll be great. It's all a great thing. All right. Here are all the bets. Either from this week already yesterday and today or today specifically. Once again, I took the C Hawks minus four. I know. I just I just wanted the four. So I bought it to four. Not something I usually do, but hey, give me give me. I wanted the four because I thought it was going to just soar in the other direction. I'm not sure will in the end. Maybe it will. We'll see Kelly asked this of me. I'll ask this of you more likely to go to six or down to three. I believe it's going to more likely to go down to three. Oh, really? Yes. I believe that we're going to see some Patriot money coming in next week. And I think it's going to get down three three and a half or at least three and a half.

36:51Only time will tell. Yes. Once again on tennis. I am on Ega Shriatek plus one 10 today versus Elena Rabakina. I am on Jesse Pagula plus one oh six today versus Amanda Nisimova. In the second part of the women's quarter finals and on the line today as well. Jesse Pagula to win quarter number three at four to one odds. Preflop and Lorenzo Musetti at plus six 50 to win quarter number three. Preflop. He's got to take on Novak joke. It's of course. So that should be fun in tennis as everybody. Hope everybody was on the Svitalina big dog winner of cocoa last night. Now later on the show came or earlier on the show. I should say first. We'll do this in chronological order. Jay Khan on the NHL. He had a bunch. He's on the Leafs tonight versus the Sabers versus the Terry Pagula owned Sabers. He's on the Maple Leafs tonight minus 103. He's going to fade the conucks. The conucks have lost 13 of 14 hockey games. And I want to say also 13 of 14 and 14 of seven.

37:54Me 15 of 17 if I'm not mistaken something like that but 13 of 14 for sure. So he's on the sharks fading the conucks tonight again nine days of hockey left before they all break for the winter Olympics. And he's on the Panthers tonight in regulation versus the mammoths again. Panthers are big favorite but it'll take him in regulation. That drops the price to plus 105 and then there's a bunch of props in the NHL tonight from Jake as always. David Pasternak of the Bruins over three and a half shots on goal at minus 105. Why a Johnson of the Dallas stars over two and a half shots on goal at plus 135. Carter Vahegi of the Florida Panthers the aforementioned Panthers at one plus point tonight minus 120. Carol Capri's off two plus points plus 110 for the Minnesota wild Jason Robertson of the Dallas stars two plus points at plus 195. That's the biggest dog on the board there. And then Maclin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks two plus points at plus 105. So three sides and six props from Jake Maddy Cox from three man weave on college hoops. He's on the Wahoo's of UVA Cavaliers minus nine and a half at Notre Dame tonight laying the wood with the Virginia team that when we did the formula earlier.

39:01They are they would be a qualifier based on Kenpom but only the sweet 16 restriction of head coach is what keeps them out right now. But of course there's been exceptions, right? Two in the last three years have completely bucked that college basketball formula point in Danny Hurley in 2023 at Yukon Todd Golden with Florida last year at 2025 Florida Gators. So we shall see if Ryan Odom is able to do the same thing at UVA. Drew Dinsick. He is op-o me on the Rabakina Sviatek match. He's on Rabakina minus 108. He is with me at with Jesse Pagula plus 115 versus Amanda Nisimova. He is taking it out. He doesn't have the the quarter play on Musetti. So he is playing Musetti at plus 225 versus Novak joke of it. But he also with a smile right said the same thing I did, which is good luck. It's Novak and even when we look good. Can we actually get over the hump here Novak 9 out of 10 wins over Musetti the only win Musetti had over joke of it was the 2023 money Carlo open that's on clay.

40:08He's also got a couple plays in the NBA. He didn't seem too thrilled with these two either now and he was on laying the wood with the sixers minus 10 and a half versus the bucks tonight. He's on the clip show minus eight and a half at the jazz tonight in the association. Um, then Jeff Jeff Erickson Jeff Erickson with four count him for you like the people say you'll four count him for our account. Super Bowl prop Super Bowl 60 is on Ramandrei Stevenson over two and a half receptions for the Patriots and he's on K. Sean booty under two and a half receptions. So taking the over two and a half receptions on the running back Ramandrei and under two and a half receptions on the wide receiver. K. Sean on the Seattle side Cooper cup over two and a half receptions and Rashid Shaheed over five and a half rushing yards. That feels like it's just a play call right. Yeah, although it didn't work out in the championship game. No, because Kelly had him for over half and they ran that jet sweep and he decided to run east and west into the North and South. Kind of just. Yeah, just mosey don't add a bounce Ben Wilson most recently on the show. He is.

41:11Uh, with me on both of the ladies quarters. He's on Jesse Pagula plus one on nine versus an Isamoah. He's on EGA plus one 10 versus Elena. Rebokina. By the way, the Shia Tech Rebokina one is the first one today at 730 Eastern 430 Pacific. That is finals worthy on the men's side. He is on Musetti's kind of a fun bet. He said Musetti first set winner, but then Novak to win the full match plus 380. And then tomorrow in the semis, he is taking Carlos Algaraz to blank Sasha's verif three sets to nothing minus two and a half sets at plus one 25 on Carlitos. Um, and then Aaron shots, by the way, Aaron shots threw in a Super Bowl bet. Did you catch that? Yeah, after his whole thing about ranking the Patriots. By the way, ranked 16th worst of all 96 teams tracked. But he didn't say when you go to weighted DVO, it's a different story. He did throw in. He likes the under Aaron shots of the bonus play under 46 and Super Bowl 60 from Aaron, who is a lifelong Patriots fan. He likes the under that one. Um, now we had a, we did a bunch on this on the spur of the moment this morning, because like Aaron, I was like, Hey, can we get Aaron in here?

42:19Uh, which he did. Hey, I'll do the formula real quick. So, uh, you had some props that were that you wanted to throw out for the Super Bowl. Yes, I mean, a chance to look at these. Yeah, me and Kelly were talking just to go over some props, you know, leading up into it, try to break it up. So, uh, the first one, let me pull it up, would be most rushing yards. Um, guys in the back, they're up to 15, please. In preview. It's going to be most rushing guards for Super Bowl prop. Kenneth Walker is minus 160, currently. Ramundra Strevinson plus 215 Drake, May six to one. There it is. Traveey on 28 to one and George Halani 40 to one. Kenneth Walker, the appropriate, the appropriate favorite. I would imagine there are some people who would take Traveey on just to bust one at 28 to one. Yeah. I would think that would, I think that would appeal to some, but again, I don't have numbers to sort of back that up, but that for a home run hitter. I think that might be the fun. He's broken a few this year where I can see where if he can break a long one, he might be able to rip 80 off on one run. Some might even say, Drake, May at six to one, but I would gravitate towards Traveey on at 28 to one. What about the receiving?

43:27Next one we got most receiving yards. So that would be Jackson Smith and Jigboo coming in at minus 170 and then Stefan Diggs plus 750, 100 Henry, 10 to one, Cooper Cup, 13 to one, Mac Holland, 16 to one. This one, I kind of feeling a little intriguing here. Cash on booty 16 to one. One of my look ads go back and see, you know, look, look at the last couple games, you know, leading into the playoffs because, you know, they haven't been too great. The last three games offensively, but going back and looking at him might take a, might take a look at him at 16 to one. Jeff Erickson disagreeing with the under two and a half receptions. Keep in mind. Yes, yes. Unless, of course, he had two massive. It was just a quick way to look at that. I thought that one kind of stuck out a little bit. I'm just trying to look away from, you know, some of the bigger name guys. I mean, not going to lay 170 with Jackson Smith and Jigboo, I don't think. But then the next one, I thought was very interesting. I mean, Kelly saw this one thought was interesting, the passing prop for Super Bowl. You can do Donald in May. This is all draft Kings combined passing yards.

44:34So, um, oh, that's interesting. So little category for 425 plus combined is minus 189 for 50 plus minus 122 for 75 plus plus. Then you get a plus numbers. Interesting. Oh, I'd like to actually look at those. Yeah, and then the other ones actually will either play or pass for these. Oh, the proliferation of the props is coming and can't wait. All right, coming up top of the hour. Top 10 unforgettable betting moments of 2025. A visa special hosted by our own Tim Murray and Joy from visa. These sports betting network.