A Numbers Game | January 27, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story of the always down. Swamdow's idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill Out of Xander, Convison. Our number two of a numbers game, it's the Vista Vista, these four's bendingMordVision.com, Game Plus, I Heart Radio, YouTube TV, Series X and Channel 158. Every taking a sim, we appreciate it, Kill Out of Xander. Danny Higgins, in for Kelly Billa. That ain't it. I gotta think of more, Ted Nightlines from that movie. Besides, how about a fresco? Great line though. That's great. Still to come on the show. Drew Dinsick standing by. Gonna join us. Talk a little Australia open, a little NBA, some Super Bowl 60 with us as well. We got some Super Bowl 60 props to look at a little later on as well. And Aaron Schatz will join us a little later to try to put where these 2025 Patriots rank in terms of all, not all 120 teams that made the Super Bowl, because he only goes back to 1978. One of the 96 Super Bowl teams that he's tracked.

1:01Where are they rank? In terms of goodness or badness. I believe we're the technical terms. Goodness or badness. And again, Patriots fans. Boy oh boy, are they a sensitive group. Don't worry guys, you made the Super Bowl. It's your 12th for God's sakes. It's nothing to be sensitive about. You're awesome. Except you've had some of the worst Super Bowl teams in history. Like that 85 team might be the worst of all time. It's something. I'm curious where these rank. Aaron's gonna rank in the worst teams to make Super Bowl's force. A little later on the show. Ben Wilson will join us, Jeff Erickson, from Roto Wire as well. We get tweets of being the book, Sam Jones at Sammy Tweets. Does love the Australian Open, but can't stand the announcers on ESPN. He says much prefer the tennis channel announcers. Do you have any other options for audio on those matches? Is there an Aussie Open app or maybe does sky broadcast? Drew might have a better take on this than me, because I just end up watching ESPN now. At this point in the tournament, early on the tournament, they had their different layers of subscriptions. Subscriptions to watch other stuff. I'm curious Sam, who annoys you the most of all of everybody. I don't have a problem with it really,

2:01to be honest with you, announcers wise. Sam Jones also had Arizona had an awful game from their bigs last night. They still won. Burries and Bradley, best back court in the country. And then Brosek 1870 with the, the headiest tweet of the morning, maybe of the week, maybe of the month. He says I'm more of a Schrodinger's bet fan. Harkening back to the Schrodinger's cat experience, experiment, which I had to look up. Here on the break. He says go to bed, and you don't know if you're a winner lose until you check the score. So the Schrodinger's cat, that was Schradinger's cat, by the way it could be pronounced, because it's German. Schradinger's cat is a 1935 thought experiment by Erwin Schradinger, illustrating the absurdity of quantum superposition applied to everyday objects, Danny. What he means by this is this, it posits that a cat in a sealed box is simultaneously alive and dead until observed. So with the Alina Spitalina bet last night, he doesn't know if it's alive or dead until he wakes up in the morning and observes the result.

3:01So he went Schradinger's cat with us. That was awesome. Appreciate that. But numbers, games, listen, there's best listeners ever. And then the numbers guys says, are you friggin kidding me? Is this is the exact wording? He says, Underwood over, Iso has a turni coach? I guess he's reacting to Maddy Cox. He said, Maddy was in diapers. What Iso went to the first of his eight final fours. Where can we send this kid? Iso's resume. Illinois might be the better team, but coaching isn't why. Drew Denson, kind enough to join us, courtesy of the progressive gas line. He's the co-host of not one but two podcasts, the deep dive with Andy Molotor. And of course, NBC sports bet the edge, which he does with J. Crouchery, joins us now from the LBC. Drew Ski, how you doing, man? Good morning, guys. A lot to comment on in that, that preamble. Please. I love the, I love the Schradinger's bet concept because it is unique to tennis. Yes. Right. I mean, 99, yeah, 99 out of 100 bets you make as a player, you're, you're following a lot

4:02while you're awake. You're watching it. Half it. You, you know, in the moment, whether you're winning or losing, except for Australia, no, tennis, many of those bets you are sleeping through and waking up many hours after it's been decided. And yeah, that's it. That's kind of a unique thing among sports betting, because yeah, you know, you're, you know, a lot of people who are doing this recreationally, they're, they want to sweat. Right? Like, you know, if you're sweating through the middle of the night, while you're sleeping, it doesn't really count, right? So, now it is unique for this time of year and for this tournament. And, you know, I think, you could have slept through the entire tournament to this point. You haven't missed anything. Usually, you know, in the case these days on the men's side, as Drew famously says, so February 1st is when the men's tournament starts. But really, I was saying this yesterday, and we did have so fiddling the last night. So, that I guess was an exception.

5:02But this is the first time that the top six seats have gotten to the quarterfinals in a women's slam for 30, in almost 30 years. That's amazing. Amazing. Yeah. Yeah. How was your tournament going? And, well, my long shot outright went down in a long time. I think it was a very good story of fashion over the weekend. So, that was disappointing. Yeah. Bootlecage. Yeah. Yeah. Bootlecage. Yeah. I had, yeah. Bootlecage going down was painful, because I mean, he certainly would have put up more of a fight than demon hour. I, I, I, how many more of these do we need to see? That's like a sell phone with this point. It's not fun. Watching demon hour go up against dinner and occur. And the, And then yeah, on the women's side and none of my long shots in Q2 or Q3 made it to the quarter final. So yeah, it's been so jocky. It's been rough to find anything that really has drawn the interest here. I had a nice bet and win on Yovic over Pavlini. Yes. That was really fun.

6:06I still kind of shake my head that the market was determined to keep Pavlini to favorite there. There was some pretty that was a pretty big liquid market actually worldwide a lot a lot of interest in that one. I'm pretty happy I was on the right side there. And yeah, my my futures for this tournament will rely on center and Savolynka coming through. They're both still the favorites, but haven't shortened a lot because all of everyone's still in their way. Although Savolynka's path feels a lot easier to me. But you know, we can comment on that more in a bit. There was one other question or comment or tweet you had that was. Australian open broadcasting. Yeah. Yeah, all all of the slams as far as I know unless things have you know, things changed in the future slams, but they all have their own dedicated iPhone app. And every one of them has a radio broadcast with some of the best tennis commentators you'll ever find. And they do an incredible job of filling the dead time too with great banter. And I honestly like listening to it even if I am watching it with my eyes because they

7:09they will add context that you're not going to see. You know, in terms to describe to the you know, to the listener who is not watching. And and yeah, it's a it's a fantastic addition to your grand slam experience that you only get with the grand slams. The radio rolling garros teams, probably my favorite. The Aussie Open team is great. The Wimbledon team is great. And I would power rank the US Open team fourth. These are very accessible accessible how drew for these free apps free apps. Yeah, just free. Just like the same app that'll kind of give you the order of play, you know, live scores that are significantly slower than flash score. And you know why it's especially it's especially useful for the Australian open is, you know, if you're up watching a screen in the middle of the night, like it's going to wreck your it's going to wreck your your life experience. You can only have so many hours of that in the middle of the night.

8:11And so kind of being able to follow along, particularly when we get to the end of the tournaments like this and being able to listen without having, you know, having the, you know, the blue light messing with your brain waves in the middle of the night is pretty pretty helpful in my opinion. So I've, I've listened to many a classic Australian Open match on the radio. Joke of it. Dennis Istiman, you remember that one? Oh my god. Yes. I listened to almost that whole match on the radio. I had to get out of it and watch the fit set because that was absolutely ridiculous. The that same tournament, Federer and Nadal in the final was one of the most outstanding tennis matches that's happened the century. Yes. And yeah, the, I listened to Medvedev almost beat Nadal. That was, that was a wild one. But yeah, the, fully endorsed the Australian Open app with the radio broadcast. Any plays as we move on from to any place tonight in tennis? Yeah, let's talk about this. I showed value on Rabakina at the

9:15open. I think the current price is exactly correct. I have her a small favor to Riga. You, are you doubling down or do you think I got to get in the match tonight? I got to get in the match tonight. Yeah. All right. So I'm against you there. But it's pretty, pretty small stakes for me for, because again, this was, this was a very close opening price I thought. Pagula, I like as a, as a dog against Anisimova. I will forever, I'll forever subscribe to a head to head that's the slop sided between two players whose skills have been the same every time they played, right? Like that there's no new wrinkles to Anisimova's game that Pagula hasn't already solved in my opinion. So I think Pagula can get that one. We are together on that one. I also have Pagula to win the quarter. Yeah, that's a fun one on the line here. Yeah. Okay, so you're doubling down on Iga and Pagula. Well, I don't have Iga for the quarter, but I have Iga for the tournament. Yes, correct. Yeah, I also have Pagula for the tournament as well. Yeah, it's it's been a, yeah, yeah, it's been a weird tournament, man. It has been like,

10:21there was a tweet, there was a tweet this morning that I thought some done pretty well, which is like the entire Australian open to this point could have been summarized in an email. You know, it's like, yeah, this is crazy. This is crazy. Yeah, this is what happened. You know, like, oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah, that all checks out. Yeah. Oh, demon hour lost in straights. Okay. Yeah, that sounds right. But yeah, the on the men's side, I like Misedi against Jokovic. I'm not losing confidence that my Jokovic, you know, is it's overtake is in jeopardy that he's going to surprise and win a 25th this week, but he might. I mean, this has been the easiest path he has ever had to this point in the tournament. He doesn't look to have anywhere physically, which is a little concerning, but the idea that Misedi that there's this big of a gap between Misedi and Jokovic, I strongly disagree with. I think those two players are very, very close. Misedi probably goes up to sets to love and then loses two six two six zero six or something and saying this

11:23is why, by the way, as you may remember from the mega product, I have Misedi to win this quarter. Plus six. Yeah, I'm sure this goes down in painful fashion. Yes, I'm sure this goes down in things. That's right. Okay. That's why I'm not doubling down on Lucetti, despite the fact that I like the price also in this one. Yeah. And yeah, Sinner, I think takes care of this and not play there. Super Bowl 60 and the NBA next with Drew. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro.

12:26A numbers game on Visa. These sports betting network. We have folks on Twitter who are shining in on better lines from 10 night during catty check to give you besides just daddy. I want to fresco. Far away for it. I can't read yours. I'm sorry. I can't read that on air. Mr. bomb apple says new line for Danny. If the whole sports thing doesn't work out for it's well, the world needs ditch diggers too, Danny. What's another one from that? By the way, are we doing that promo here or the next one? Okay. I think it's the next one. We'll do that. That's right. Drew Denson joins us once again courtesy of the progressive guest line from his home in Long Beach, California. I'm at least in time for the NBA at the end during case you have any picks. Well, let's get that out of the way real quick. Do you have any picks in the NBA tonight? Two mega chocuons in my book laid six or ten and a half and clippers eight now today. You sound very excited. Sixers and full strength. I had not do the NBA has been. It has been a struggle bus really this month of January, not just not from a betting standpoint necessarily,

13:31but just from like what's going on here, guys? What are we doing? It takes the third banana in January in general because of the playoffs and the Australian open for me, but this year feels especially rough. Okay, that's honest. We'll leave it at that for that. So two chocu plays from Drew today in the NBA. Let's get to football. How did your, I know you've been on a great run in the NFL. How did your championship go? Yeah, I know it came to a screenshot. It all ended in flames. Yes. I had a lot of a lot of stuff tied to it over in the first game. So seeing the weather at the kickoff was like, oh, and then out of half time was like, oh, no. Oh, no. Yeah. And that, so that went down quite poorly. I had some Patriots to win the UFC, but it wasn't that spectacular of a price at all. And actually just kind of wiped out, you know, helped balance

14:32out some of the other losers I had in the AFC Futures pool. In the NFC, I was solo-staked Rams. And for the Super Bowl, I was solo-staked Rams. So pretty disappointed. They weren't able to find a way to win there. It's good game, though. It was, you know, it was a matter of when, not if the special teams was going to break their back. Yeah. And that second-muffed punt, that was as he's falling, as he's falling to the ground Xavier Smith. It's like, oh, God, here we go. It's brutal. That was the one thing we knew, right? That was the one difference in those teams. That Seattle special teams was very good. The Rams were very bad. And that's what ended up manifesting. As we go to Super Bowl 60 now, we're the Seahawks for and a half point favorites. We haven't had a chance to talk about this yet. Four and a half point favorites currently. We'll see where this goes in the next 12 days versus the Patriots totals at 46. What's your first reaction to the macro lines here and how you plan to bet them if you haven't already?

15:36I'm into Seahawks small at four and a half minus one of seven. I think yesterday's movement was a little bit of just sort of rebalancing after the look ahead was kind of in the three-and-a-half range. And it opens five. So there's a little bit of gravity towards the look ahead there, a little bit of people who have Seahawks taking some risk off betting Patriots I saw yesterday. I don't think any of that was especially sharp action. People think the Patriots are good because they're very not good. I can't wait to hear Schatz's segment. Me too. I can't wait to hear it. I mean, they're not bottom five of the at least in the modern era. I'll be pretty surprised. He does as good a job as anyone in the sport. In data, space, I would say, kind of correctly reflecting opponent strength. And it's pretty clear when the Patriots were playing, you know, the little sisters of the poor, like the Jets and the dolphins

16:38at the end of the year, and looked amazing. That was not really as an indication of their true strength. And then when they played some good defenses in the playoffs and looked very pedestrian, I think that's that time telling you they are who they are. I think Drake may as a great quarterback. You will have a long, fruitful career in the NFL with his talent. But this is now a step up from two really, really tough tests, really three really tough tests against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Now you draw the Seahawks who not only are as good if not a better defense, I would argue better. And you don't have a complimentary offense who can play. This this looks like a mismatch to me on paper. Patriots surely could win. Things could break in their direction favorably. But I think this is this is pretty clearly going to be a, you know, one sided outcome. And I think Seahawks are going to be able to play with the lead and now really make things painful for the Patriots because Patriots are going to have a difficult time running the

17:40ball with their running backs. I think they're certainly scope for Drake made to get going on the ground against the Seattle defense. But I would be pretty blown away if the running back room has a successful day on Sunday. And then I would think that the quality of play and efficiency from San Donald, you saw in the NFC championship game to me was born out of growth. He was able to make some very impressive plays. I thought out of structure to not just like make successful plays, but to avoid the catastrophic negative plays, which were always kind of the hallmark of his game. If you could create pressure and, you know, particularly interior pressure on him, you know, he tended to make really terrible decisions. And we saw really good decisions on Sunday out of him, which I think is something that carries forward into this contest. And, you know, I'm excited for the matchup of JSN versus Christian Gonzalez. That's all that's going to be quite awesome. But JSN has the advantage there for me. I think that Seahawks playing with the lead in the second half

18:42can put this game away pretty, pretty comfortably because they're their D-line. They are number one they're amazing in the runstop, but they're a little bit underrated in their ability to generate interior pressure. I think, you know, the duo of defensive tackles going up against this interior pass-part hope pro from the Patriots looks like a serious problem. I think a world where Seahawks are losing in this game. Liveovers, live Seahawks to come back and win feel very live, very real to me. But, you know, ultimately my gut says this is going to be Seahawks wire to wire type of deal. And I think they're the best team. They were the best team in football this year. They proved it, right? They've proven it. Patriots were the best of the junior university in the AFC. So they got that going for him. How do you, I know you're not now, our buddy Rufus Peabody, of course, has made a cottage industry exploiting NFL props for Super Bowls. When he first

19:43came to public attention some 25 years ago, it was for this. He'll be on the Megapod next week, as he always does before the Super Bowl. So I don't know if you do stuff quite as detailed as he does. But how do you approach Super Bowl props? Do you have something in mind before you jump in? Is it always the same things you're interested in? How does it apply to this matchup? Yeah. So my prop strategy for the Super Bowl is pretty straightforward. I find one thing that sounds really good to talk about on all the media appearances I do. And that thing loses. Try it in true. I honestly like in more seriousness though, like the prop to me, the prop handicapping space has gotten more sophisticated by the year. And really this last four years, it is run by players who know very clearly what the openers ought to be have a clear edge when they start to see the pools mature. And if you're not doing that regularly from week one to week 18, I don't

20:48know why you think you can jump it in the Super Bowl and beat it. It's kind of this completely agree with this. Yes. I'm sorry. It's kind of the same thing as like imagine that you just watch college basketball, but don't bet it from November to March 15th. You're going to spin up a model that's going to beat the college basketball market in March madness. No, no, you're not. You're not going to do it specifically, right? Yeah. Well, no, I'm just saying like like you know, it's it's sort of the same thing like if you know, if you're not betting, if you're not betting the clay swing through Europe and you decide, hey, you know what, I'm going to make fairs for the French open. Guess what? You're going to get your clock clock. It's just you're not going to be able to step into, you know, mature marketplace with this many sophisticated participants and do well if you don't do it regularly in my opinion. And so I tend not to, but that said, you know, a lot of fun people call and say, hey, we want you to do an appearance, talk about Super Bowl. What's a prop you really like? And you know, to find something that sounds good like, like, oh, here's a great prop. Drake May pass attempts is set at 30 and a half. Well, the Patriots, I think are going to

21:56come in with a game plan that's going to be pretty pass heavy focus because I don't think they're going to try to test the strength of the Seattle defense of what, you know, by running the ball 50 times. So it's, it's going to be, you know, a lot of short stuff, a lot of shots from Drake May early in this contest. And then, you know, the market says they're probably going to be losing in the second half of this game, which means they're just going to have to throw their way back into it if they're going to want to have a chance to win. So Drake may likely to land more like about 35 pass attempts than 31 in my opinion. So I'm going to take the over on Drake May pass attempts. So this is, I'm good. We have two, we have two weeks to talk about this, but I'm so glad that we have this moment to have this perspective because I think it needs to be stated because, you know, you and I are betting tennis and it's, it's a profitable thing and it's this awesome thing. And then the Super Bowl comes around and people are like, oh, we got to talk about every prop on the board. It's, and I'm just thinking to myself exactly what you are, which is, why do you think now like all of a sudden this is going to be what you're going to make money on? It's just a, it's a fascinating thing because it's there. We love betting it. And so I appreciate that perspective. Let's put it

22:58that way. Yeah, my, my actual, my actual prop strategy is wait for my friend to telegram me about what the, uh, every personal time was for the anthem. That's, that I am all about, which we will get to as the weeks progress here in the next couple of weeks. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. All right, that's like this. Drew Dinsick, everybody. Come back with Jeff Erickson for Roto, wire next. A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network. They don't forget Omaha stays. Look at that. Omaha, not the stakes this time. We got the chicken up, but football meets flavor. Nonetheless, with decent and Omaha stakes, the official sponsor of tailgating and right now when you spend $129, you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings, two pounds, Danny. Well, it's 50% off site wide at OmahaStakes.com slash VS I am. Don't wait, spend $129, get two pounds of wings and say 50% site wide on stakes and more at OmahaStakes.com slash VS I am. That's OmahaStakes.com

23:58slash VS in minimum purchase required C site for details. Can I give a shout out once again to that, uh, that tweet we had earlier? I know we put Buddhist in the, uh, the tweet or Hall of Fame, but a Hall of Fame tweet specifically in the, in the wing that has just specific tweets. From a Brosek 1870 Steven who earlier went Schradinger's cat on us, which was just awesome about waiting for the bet result the previous night again cat in a box. You don't know if it's dinner alive until it's observed the Schradinger cat experience from 1935. Like apparently one day Schradinger woke up in 1935. He's like, you know what? I don't know if this cat's alive. It's in the box until I see it. It's not proven. And so did that with the Spitalina bet last night until you see the result. You don't know if it's a winner or a loser. Steve the proxy. My wife suffers from migraines enough that I had to find a solution. There's a viral TikTok solution that sounds really stupid, but works. McDonald's Coke and French fries. Something about the salt and caffeine drinking black coffee also works. Kelly, I hope you're listening,

25:01man. Yeah. Kelly Billin who's out today because he's got a migraine headache. He is plagued by migraines. Coke and French fries. McDonald's Kelly is an excuse to have a coke and French fries. You've already lost 105 pounds. Come on, man. Might have to stop, you know, maybe maybe stop him and get my own and then drop some off of him on the way home. He's going to say, hey, maybe I maybe these will work. Meltzer like Seltzer, Mark Meltzer and Meltzer Vegas. He does this thing where he posts R&B concerts and hip-hop concerts all over Las Vegas. He goes, well, I know where Gill's going to be this summer, right? His latest one is Neo and ACON, apparently. I'm in a concert Friday, August 14th. So it's common as looks like Gill has a busy summer. Three Jack H3131. Gill, how come Drew gets a second segment after poo-pooing the great Lorenzo Musetti? After he wins tonight, I fully expect a nice bottle of, what is this? BB Gratz Gratz Testimata 2020, not 2021 at my doorstep. Whilst I celebrate the plus 750, I've picked up. Yeah, so let me get it. Let's just review again what we're just talking about

26:04Musetti. So I have Musetti, as I gave out before the tournament, to win Q3 at plus 650. Three Jack H2City has my plus 750. I don't have a bet on Musetti today against Novak Jokovic, though I think there's value in the Musetti price still leaving today, but I'm just not going to double up on him because I have, as Drew pointed out, because we know how Novak Jokovic magic works. We can be up two sets and it's like, oh god, here comes the worst, because Novak Jokovic is just beyond description, even at this age of 38. So we'll see, hopefully it gets home. MH Stuckart says, oh, that's a peach hunt. That's from Catty Shack, but that's not a 10-night line of Catty Shack, is it? Let's see. Home skillet. So this is what Gill and Kelly meant when they said to wait for the Seahawks money line to move. What is he referring to here? Oh, yes, exactly. A circus for those who missed it. We don't really do this on this show because, you know, typically other shows in sort of sports betting media, they love talking about these big bets that are made.

27:09A lot of bets are made offshore that exceed, but here with the Super Bowl, so this is exactly what we're talking about. So Covers reported this in circa here, everybody knows. There was a bet place yesterday, $1.1 million on the Patriots money line at plus 188 to win $2 million. There weren't any $1 million bets placed last year on the Super Bowl. So shout out to Covers for that last detail there that there weren't any last year. But yes, that's exactly what we're talking about with muted money lines in the Super Bowl. People make huge bets. People tend to bet the money line as opposed to taking the points on the dog. And so yes, you will get an artificially muted money line on the favorite often. Nemesis and Forza, am I the only one not feeling Malika Andrews tennis coverage was not a fan of her NBA coverage either. Please know Malika. Hey, we love Malika. She has larynjitis of some kind right now, so her voice is not projecting. So a little grace for Malika. Let's talk some Super Bowl 60 once again. Jeff Erickson joins us now courtesy of

28:13the progressive guest line. You can follow on Twitter at Jeff. That's with the J underscore Erickson. He is a founder of Roto Wire, which Jeff gives me a whole bunch of glee because not only can we talk Super Bowl 60 here, but you've agreed to talk some major league baseball season win totals in the next segment as well. Are we doing that? Yeah, absolutely. I just jot it down four that I like. So we'll go for it there. I look forward to it. Let's save those. Let's get to Super Bowl 60. Now, forgive me because Drew and I drew Nancy and I we just talked about the case for folks. This does not apply to you because you're betting props all year. But for folks who never bet this kind of stuff, right? And who don't have numbers, don't follow it to just sort of show it for the Super like, oh, I'm going to fire on 30 Super Bowl props. Just just sort of a yellow caution light on folks like that yellow blinking light. You, however, you're a guy who delves in this all year long, and you have as you look at Super Bowl 60 before we get to your four props, what do you think about the line itself? I guess I should ask you about that too. Seahawks minus four and a half totals 46. What's your instinct on that? I wish I could have jumped it at minus three and a half like

29:17everybody else when it first opened. I do think that I like the Seattle side here. I'm nervous about the Pat's ability to protect Drake May. I'm more sold, I'm persuaded that I like betting the under 46. And I like that it's 46 and no longer 45 and a half even. I think that's a nice little thing there. But this is a Pat's team that's given up five sacks per game in the playoffs. I think the Seahawks are going to get there against Drake May. I think they're better equipped to stop other items there. And on the flip side, while the past defense has been amazing, let's look at who they faced on the way there. The Chargers offensive line, they're known issues. The Texans offensive line in their known issues and CJ Stroud doing CJ Stroud things. I'm not quite sure exactly what happened to Stroud in the playoffs, but he made some really awful, awful decisions along the way. And then Jared Stidham in the snow for crying out loud. I think that this is a very good defense. I don't know if it's an elite defense. Nonetheless, I do like them

30:18keeping it somewhat close, I think within a touchdown. So my idea is that I kind of like the Seahawks by six or seven. And when a little bit of a tighter game, like 27, 17 sort of type of thing. Okay. So you do have a couple rushing props and a couple receiving props that you like here. Let's start with the rushing props. What do you got? Okay. So running back prop is a Ramondri Stevenson over two and a half catches in this one here. Oh, during the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks allowed 97 catches to running backs. Stevenson has been the guy that has been the target more often than not for the Patriots. Lately, when it comes to throwing to the running back, they don't throw to the running back a ton in this one there. But I think that is one way you try to attack Seattle. And maybe that's a part of that might be a function of them having to try to give Drake May an outlet there, someone to throw to. And four of the last five games, Stevenson's had like four plus targets. So I think that this is something that we can kind of count on a little bit there. I don't expect the same extreme ratio of snaps that we saw between Stevenson and Travion Henderson

31:22that we did in the game against the Broncos. I think this was an extreme condition sort of game. Nonetheless, Henderson has been out of favor and that's in its continuing trend. So I think, anytime there's like a patch catching situation for running back, it's going to go to Stevenson. So Ramondrey over two and a half catches pardon me. So a running back prop, but not a rushing prop. All right. What's the other running back? I do have a set rushing prop for a receiver though. Oh, okay. And that's and that's Rashid Shaheed, five and a half rush yards. Again, you know, kind of turning the regular season a little bit to look at this. Some was that the Seahawks allowed 149 rushing yards to wide receivers, most in the NFL. Shaheed, I mean, sorry, the Patriots allowed 149 rush yards to opposing receiver, sorry, I miss both. Most in the NFL, I think Shaheed's the guy that is an obvious choice for that. I don't know. I think he's going to be a heavily targeted guy that that seems like something they've kind of gone away from. They never, aside from the Colts game, there really weren't too many games where he got a lot of targets in the passing game. But I do think he gets like one end

32:26around and I think it'll be successful enough there. So I kind of like the over five and a half rushing yards. All right. So Ramandra over two and a half catches, running back over catches. Shaheed, wide receiver, over five and a half rushing yards. You have two others. Yes. I've been a fade case on Bhutay's number of catches under two and a half receptions. You know, he's more of a downfield, you know, intermediate and downfield sort of guy. If the past rush is going to be a problem for Drake May, well, Bhutay's the type of guy who will probably be affected more by that than say like a Stefan digs who can do a lot a little of those interior routes. I think, you know, Bhutay's the guy that's they're going to try to hit on the outside, the lower percentage plays or the plays that take a little longer to develop. So I'm going to try to avoid that. And I think the return of Mack Hollins also hurts Bhutay a little bit too. Cooper Cup on the other hand for the Seahawks, I like the over two and a half. Mostly because I think Christian Gonzalez is going to spend almost all of his time on JSN. And so Cup is going to have to step up a little bit there. So over two and a half

33:29receptions for Cooper Cup is something that I like. Okay, there we go. Four props will repeat them at the end of the show. But again, Ramandra over two and a half receptions. Shaheed over five and a half rushing yards. Keishan Bhutay, Bhutay over two and a half, excuse me, under two and a half receptions, pardon me. And then Cooper Cup over two and a half receptions. By the way, breaking news from Adam Schefter, sources, the bills have made their move. They are working to finalize a deal to make offensive coordinator Joe Brady their new head coach. There you go. So some six, seven years after being the guiding force, one might say an LSU's run to the national title, Joe Brady, the head man for the Buffalo bills. That is the latest there in the NFL coaching carousel. More with Jeff Erickson on the other side, baseball season, win totals next on a numbers game.

34:31A numbers game on fee set. These sports betting network. They don't forget to take out the sharp plays at sharp plays dot com. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for more sharp plays dot com. We get tweet speed to the book, Ryan Klaus, caching himself a very chalky two leg parlay in, uh, in tennis, Alcatraz and Sabelanka. Hey man. Winner's a winner. Nice job. He also has Musetti's top five player in the world. And he's only one and one and nine versus the joke of itch head to head. Kind of a kind of a run on sentence here. It doesn't matter, but when you're no vac, it does. I think I understand what you're saying. Ryan, which is what I'm saying earlier, which is yes, it might. Yeah, I made the bet on Musetti to win the quarter for a reason. To this point, I have been correct. I was hoping it wouldn't be no vac in the quarterfinals, but it is. And so the proper respect merits that I'm not going to double up on it. But the numbers lead me to, uh, to believe that Musetti definitely has a real shot at this today against no vac joke of itch

35:34who is seeking his 25th grand slam title. Uh, I've begun to gather my things. Shratinggers cat, he says there isn't something else. Yes, it was tradinggers cat. Uh, that is great fairway, Fred. Uh, gambling is illegal at Bushwood, sir, and I never slice. Was that Ted Knighter? Was that Chevy Chase? No, that was Ted Knight, right? I leave say gambling is illegal at Bushwood, sir, and I never slice that he proceeds the slice. That's another Ted Knight line from Candy Shack. Um, Nemo Ryan's voice bills getting Brady and their head coach search as Ted Knight would say, you'll get nothing and like it. So in case you missed it, Joe Brady, just announced before the breaker, we did just been announced before the break courtesy of Adam Schefter at ESPN. Joe Brady is the new head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Um, went from LSU and a national title to Carolina for a minute and then has worked his way back up the Buffalo chain. Jeff Erickson kind enough to join us for a, for a second segment, Jeff, what could you share your reaction off air to this news? Yeah, real bang up job on this coaching search here, real real professional

36:36job. Yeah, there was, they were like the Cleveland Browns where so many people were kind of bailing out a second interviews with them seem like and you asked the question, like did the other coaches see the writing on the wall? Yes, or was this just like they said, one look and said, nah, you know, it could have been that too. Um, it was, you know, Philip Rivers was the interesting one that he declined a second interview. Like, he's Philip Rivers had no NFL coaching experience and he's saying, no, I'm good. I'm good here. That's what leads me to believe because I know you were, you were saying everybody's pulling out so they ended up with Joe Brady where and I, and I asked off air, I was like, or did the candidates see, oh, they're going to hire Joe Brady, what am I doing here? We don't know where the truth lies in it, but you're right, real, real bang up job by the bills ending up with Joe Brady. Good for him. Good for them. I hope they got their guy. Uh, if you're a bills fan, I think you should probably be excited about that though, uh, with his pedigree anyway. And the fact that he's been in the organization. But yeah, what a, you know, what a, what an exercise that wasn't finding your head coach, if that was going to be the result anyway, which leaves only three teams left now. And these are the,

37:36it's, I gotta, I have to laugh because it's the Raiders. It's the Cardinals and it's the, uh, the Browns who are literally going to get who everybody else doesn't, right? Like, all right, who's left? This is who we end up with. Yeah. And that's, you know, absolutely. It is musical chairs there. I've heard no buzz about Arizona at all. That's the one that is amazing to me. You know, it's just, you know, at least with the Raiders like, okay, you know, they're, they're waiting on, uh, you know, uh, Kubiak probably the way Tom Brady was polishing that Apple on the broadcast Sunday night. You know, it seems like that, that's where he wants to go at least. Yeah. Uh, we'll see if that, if Kubiak wants to do that. I, you know, it's interesting that the, you know, I thought the bills would wanted to have, uh, interviewed Kubiak, but since they didn't get a first interview in and time, they're not allowed to do a second interview, but maybe they weren't even into them at all that much anyhow. Uh, you know, well, you know, various Rams assistants now are available on the market there. So we'll see what happens there. But do you really want to take that job? Uh, you know, Bidwell is sneakily one of the 25 worst owners in the NFL. Every team complains about their owner, uh, but, you know, Arizona is one

38:38of those for sure that you're sure had an awful situation for a long time. Were you as shocked by the Mike McCarthy hiring by the Steelers as I was? No, I wasn't just because I had heard the rumors going along all along. He's got those Western Pennsylvania roots. But I don't, I don't hate it necessarily, except it doesn't solve there. We don't have a quarterback for the future problem. Right. That's the thing is like, and he's not a, okay, tear it down to the studs and build it back up type of guy. He's a, okay, let's take us over the home sort of guy, but they don't have that quarterback to go over the hump with, you know, is this mean another year of Rogers? I was going to say because if so, that's another 10, that 8 to 10 win season. Did they think that was going to lure Rogers back for a year? I like that. I don't know. I don't understand. Um, we'll see how it all is. Is that a good thing? Yeah. And is that a good thing? Obviously, as is the implication, that's right. Um, okay, to major league baseball, let's talk some season win totals. Never too early. I have no idea what's coming. Let's start with whichever one you want to start with.

39:38The Milwaukee Brewers are once again undervalued in the win total market there. It's at 83 and a half now. They just traded away another key player and everyone's going to panic about them. But they're the best development team in baseball right now. I think, uh, especially on the pitching side, they dealt from an area of strength. They probably tried to trade pretty pretty per alter at the right time. I like the return that they got. I like the division there in over 83 and a half for a team that won over 100 games last year. Sure. Why not? Milwaukee Brewers over 83 and a half. Is that what it's listed at 83 and a half on the Milwaukee Brewers? That's where I just saw it at draft King's just a little bit about 15 minutes ago. Okay. Um, I'm so curious about these. Okay, next. I got another positive one here. We'll stay in the central, but the American league will go with the Kansas City Royals over 81 and a half. Good young hitting core. They just move their fences in about 10 feet, not in every spot in the park, but and they also lower the fences a little bit. They're trying to accentuate this good young hitting quarter. Vinnie Pass,

40:39Wantino, a tremendous tweeter, by the way. Oh, is he really going to benefit from that? Yeah. Yeah, really good follow. He and Brent Rooker are sneakily very good follows on Twitter. And so, you know, just check those guys out. But yeah, I think they benefit. I'm a little worried what this does to someone like a Noah Cameron or, you know, Michael Walker a little bit, not tremendous, you know, strikeout rate guys. So there is a little tiny concern as far as that goes on the pitching side of things. You know, if it's going to benefit the hitters, it's going to hurt the pitchers, but I think this is a good core. And again, we're talking about the central division, where you have some teams that are actively not trying. The Minnesota twins are not trying. Kansas City Royal should be able to benefit from that quite a bit. I think this is a sneaky good team this year. Pasquaintino always underrated, in my opinion, as a player. You know, the average, the average sort of sports fan who's not necessarily into baseball, doesn't even know who he is kind of thing. This is the early, this is a very anecdotal, but the early returns on the, on the most popular play so far in season win titles. The very early returns were only in January, obviously,

41:44is the royals over. It feels like people are very bullish on the royals here on the early side of this. All right. Their minus 120 for that overhead trafficking says to supplant your point there. And what's the number? What's the number on them again? It is 81 and a half. 81 and a half. They seem to always be right away. So just a winning record is what we're going for. You're not asking for much. You're just asking for a winning record. Okay. You intimated that I think the next two are unders. What are you on? Yes. They are. And to use, you know, you're asking for judge schmails lines. I'll go with, I didn't want to fade the Washington Nationals, but I felt I owed it to them. 66 and a half is the win total here. Oh, man. Quickly. Can you name two starters in the in the Washington Nationals rotation right now after the McKenzie Gorge trade? I mean, Steven Strossberg and Max Sherzer, of course, Jeff. I mean, obviously. Yes, of course. Naturally. Yeah. Yes. The pitching is going to be rough on this team. Kate Cavali is a, I like him a lot. There's not going to be a lot of work. You know, he's not going to have a lot to work with unfortunately. You're not, your other starters are Brad Lord, Jake Irvin, maybe Mitchell Parker,

42:49Andrew Alvarez, Josiah Gray might be coming back from injury. It's, it's not pretty out there. I think they're going to give up a bushel over runs and a division that's got four other teams that are trying, you know, to a, to some sort of degree of trying. The, the, the Mets and the Phillies obviously are going to be having had their irons in the fire. Even the Marlins added this off season. I think that they've got an interesting young core. I think they're all going to pound the Nationals there. So, and if they're, and there's some ownership issues with this team, I think that there's some interesting young hitting pieces on this team, but the pitching is just going to be tragic on this team. So I'm definitely fading the Nationals. And if they develop any sort of young bullpen guys that they can trade at the flip at the deadline, they're going to do that as well. So this is one of those teams that could fall apart in the second half again, much like they did last year. And the same holds true with my fourth team. Well, before you give them Minnesota twins. Oh, okay. Under under under on the twins. Yeah, I was just going to say, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. So I was just going to say about in the same way that you'll look back at that Nationals championship team and you'll say, wow, they had

43:52won. So before that, you know, Bryce Harper wasn't on the national on the, on the championship team. But think of all the players that, that had uniforms, right? Um, they were in that uniform. Sodo and Harper and Strasberg and Scherzer and, and, uh, Rendon didn't turn out to be much, but you know, the list goes on and on. Add McKenzie Gore to that. I think we will look back at McKenzie Gore in that same vein, uh, at some point here. Yeah. Absolutely. I like the Rangers going out and getting them. Yeah. Under on the twins. Under on the twins. Again, another team with ownership issues, you know, they, they pulled their team off the market in terms of trying to sell the market. So it remains in the family there, uh, right now. And that family has been squeezing and squeezing and squeezing that budget tighter and tighter. This is another team. I think they'll try to flip like Pablo Lopez at the trade deadline. I think they'll try to flip any sort of other starting pictures, uh, that are, have that veteran sheen to them there. 73 and a half right now. I think this is a team that could fall apart in the second half. I, I, I think they could convince Byron Bucks and the B wanted to be traded. I know last year you said he's a twin for life.

44:53I think if they're like a 65 win team, he'll like say, okay, you can trade me now. Under on the gnats, under on the twins, over on the brewers and over on the royals. Jeff always a pleasure. Appreciate it. Thank you so much. Anytime. Take care. Jeff Erickson, everybody. Aaron shots ranking the Patriots next.