A Numbers Game | January 23, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story now is now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with kill I like Xander gone. V sent our number two of a numbers game at feast in these sports betting that we're V sent dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV and of course series six of channel 158 kill Alexander Kelly Middling alongside hell on this football Friday still to come Steve Fesik Dr. Bob Chris Felica standing by here to talk with us about not only the NFL but also football soccer horse racing We'll get it all that with Chris. We get tweets beating the book New York best 16 mayor of kings down landman Tulsa King mobland and lioness all on paramount plus and worth the watch I don't like all my they're like all my list man again I'll get there one of these years again the reason this has come up is because UFC UFC 324 by the way for the scoring at home UFC 324 It's down with the sports things that land you know that George sure would come enough to talk that with us as well

1:00But they are no longer pay per view that going up paramount plus shons fox plays. Okay. There's no UFC on HBO But he says I will be damned if we don't mention the pit is the best damn show on TV It's the most realistic ER show ever where we not only see the doctors in the crap they go through every day We feel it and see heroes. They are every day See the heroes that they are every day. I've seen the previews. I've seen the previews Danny likes it. Danny approves it. Danny watches all these shows man LFC title records. Good morning felles. I'm currently working at Kelly Billion's favorite hockey player Snooker roots hometown of Chaska, Minnesota Minus 21 With a feel like minus 42 Good gracious. I'll tell you this again freshman year and senior year in Boston We had we had windshields of the of minus 40s And I just remember thinking at 19 years old just being like man What the hell my god myself into You get inside and then you like spend 30 minutes just like

2:01Trying to warm Trying to thaw out Tronsky. Hey, Gil. Thank goodness for tennis without it and some college basketball the end of football will be devastating Love your thoughts on Barton Kova But why you got to swing so big man just to take a set as much more palatable at plus 110 sprinkle on that money Well, because I Originate tennis and a handicap tennis and so for me it does not feel like swinging big I've hit many many dogs through the years as you probably know And so I view it differently than perhaps on the outside looking in I believe that she will win the match So for me, that's the bet and leisure suit Kobe Here's something left out of the ditty documentary that'll blow your mind like a 23 to 14 Rams Broncos Super Bowl Proz did you know that did he took the notorious b.i.g persona and the 1994 single juicy from a Mississippi rapper named notorious b One who sent his demo in 1993. Yeah, did he completely stole it Completely stole it. That's an old hip hop That happens in music no way. Yeah, everybody knew that And Jack Larkin from sport trade as more prediction markets enter the market and become increasingly popular amongst betters and traders

3:05You think people will begin to bet slash trade via percentages imply probability Or will betters always stick with American odds. I have an opinion on this sir I believe that Americans will always stick with their American odds And the reason I say this is because just the experience of how slow it takes for Well, there's nothing wrong with this too. It's just how we are Right, I remember when Andrew Gerud who was the the developer of the Midas algorithm over at the M at Cantor Gaming That was their in-game engine back in the day when it first started He was a British derivative straighter. He used to come on the podcast Superduper smart one of my favorite guests ever and Andrew Gerud would sit there and tell me be like oh You know 51% of handle in the UK is on in-game betting It'll take three years and you guys will have 51% of your handle on in-game. Yeah, we didn't adopt it that quick It took it took a decade or more right for us to like even Even for it to be a conversation between in-game and pre-flop I still feel like this it's like the metric system when I was a kid in school

4:06We were like oh by the time we're adults, you know, it's gonna. It's not gonna be a hundred yards on a football field It's gonna be 300 feet right whatever right Oh, you said you're not 300 feet. It's gonna. We're gonna be talking in meters Whatever, you know, whatever the translation is into meters part of me And yeah, I never have it So I don't think it's ever gonna change the betting to I could be wrong Tell you the one thing I was right about in school. No cursive writing what a what a what a scam What a scam writing where was the script? Why don't I have to use that my adult life haven't needed that one Yeah, no, we had where were we joking about this on air with the couch you set up. It was this offer Like we're right. Oh, yeah Yeah, the little sports fan mode, which just makes you feel like it's like hey Robin Hood traders are like other traders out They just take my money, but I have to toggle to sports fan mode It feels like I've been a different league. I could read more tweets But we have Chris Felica here the bear from Fox Sports. You can follow him of course on Twitter at Chris Felica That's F-A-L-L-I-C-A He is the emperor of the bear bets podcast empire empire empire over there

5:07And I have to ask you Chris and good morning to you sir, but before we start anything You are a Miami alum. I asked this of Will Hill earlier in the week So I have to give you time equal time on this you had futures on your canes We've all bet tons over the years But Jillian bets usually we let it just bounce off of us this one hurt a little more Oh, and absolutely did I mean, I think one of the reasons why was I never Really car compartmentalized them losing the game And I know that sound people are gonna roll their eye. They were a seven and a half people in underdog How do you think they're I thought it was the Ohio State game all over again. I thought they were better But then Indiana and people were really underselling how good this Miami team was and it was a type of game Where if you looked at a couple of the different post game win expectancy models? And I'll kindly had a like a 14 percent which did seem a little low But there was another one around 30 percent and it was the type of game that Indiana

6:09Had been winning and excelling at all year long All of the game all all of the margins all of the highest leverage possible plays in the game Wenton favor of Indiana the the block punt The two fourth down conversions the third down throw to tobacco like every every every play that was And I'm sure you could sort the highest WPA Plays in the game the the top five would all got gone in the favor of Indiana And that's a ultimately why they won the game But yet now this one this one stung because I'm not saying my army should have won the game You can kind of have two different thoughts about saying that but It was there for my army to win and you kind of feel like yeah, you'll let one get away a little bit You don't get those opportunities every day. It absolutely was there for them to win It could have gone either way for sure last thing on this Do you think that this will now all the you know sort of the the betting You know the the jokes about Mario Cristobal Mario Cristobal so you never know. Do you think those are gonna go away now? Oh, is that over? I hope so

7:11I hope so it should be over, right? I just I look my army is they've been upset a bunch in the past Um, and he had the game the taking the knee game, but This whole narrative all they don't win a big game with your Mario crystal They have not Not shown up in a big game the last couple of years on the Mario crystal ball like every big game possible They should have every game in the playup. They showed up for Notre Dame showed up for Florida State I all of the biggest possible game of the games that they had to win down the stretcher All essentially playoff games They're there and and the staff he is compiled With Cory Heatherman defensive coordinator and Shannon Dawson defensive coordinator I'll go see like that's the the saving grace the solace out of monday night's loss is that the signs are there That this program the the arrow is up and they potentially could be coming back bigger and better next year Yeah, and I guess that's the next obvious question then a temper the question by saying well transfer porn also

8:11You know who knows what these teams will look like when they finally get there But is there is there a team in college football or maybe we just started the top Um, yeah, who do you expect to be at the top of college football and then there is there a team below that surface that you're like um Many people won't be thinking about this team, but I am I I think Texas will probably be getting a lot of hype because they have done the most in the portal so far and we finally saw archbanging Again staying am it in the regular season and against mission in the bowl game That was the arch that I think a lot of people Expected to see sooner in the year, but you know the price is going to be shorter on that The Notre Dame schedule next year Outside of the game against against Miami is a joke. I think they've got Eat teams on there that lost at least eight games this year. So I bet cj card eight to one to win the Heisman already Just because I think where you're going to be starting in the top five is The equities built up and we know and we know an opportunity to go 111 12, but I don't I think that's logical Will that will unfortunately this week?

9:12But a Sammy and Jeff and I were kicking around on the show when these prices get put up I'd be curious to see a lot of the win totals and like the yes-no playoff props on a team like Ohio State Maybe there is a no to be had on the buck eyes next year. Wow a lot of losses on the defensive side of the ball You'll lose carnal tape the schedule. They get every bad break possible You could on the schedule next year as possible. They can miss and then Everyone's gonna ask a who's the next Indiana like I don't know if Penn State can do it In Matt Campbell's first year But they're the opposite of Ohio State next year They miss Ohio State they miss Michigan. They miss Oregon. They miss they miss India They missed all of the good big 10 teams next year So a Penn State might be one of those teams that you look at the one-loss record this year And it's like and how they disappointed next year. That might be a little bit undervalued Okay, and then just a glimpse into the life of Chris Vellique as by the way the Multiple Emmys behind his head is not lost on me

10:14How many Emmys total did we count there Chris how many by the way that's We counted them up beforehand. I don't know this off the top of my head There's seven back there right now and I believe there are two more Downstairs and the in the TV did he didn't have enough room to keep them all behind his behind Refreshing that backdrop up. I think over the over the next couple of months or so is my my offseason slows down a little bit And I have a little bit more well that's one of my stuff Backdrop up come up. That's what I wanted to ask you is we're going to save Chris's soccer bets and his horse racing bets And his NFL thoughts here for the other side, but before we go to break Your summer as you just talked about besides redoing your shelf You are going to be at all these world cup events. Are you in studio? Are you at the games? What are you doing? I don't know where we're going to I would imagine we're probably going to be in L.A. The U.S. has both of the games based In the west coast so I would imagine a majority of my

11:15Hits and such will be coming from L.A. So I would imagine Like I was the two summers ago for for euros and Copa. I'll be I'll be in L.A. Probably for about six weeks. You got a world cup bets for us at all and yet or not yet. I do I do I bet over a fobble. I believe the Chris is the correct pronunciation from Spain 30 to one Golden Boot winner Jose Maria Ola fobble think of the same thing. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's like Why Okay more picks with Chris across the board next on a numbers game You're here because you want an edge that's what separates listeners from winners But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools The data and the discipline and now so can you visa programs you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use No secrets no fluff just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with visa in pro

12:15You A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network How can Chris the bear of felica be on bar stool on the TV right now and yet be with us at the same time It's man is incredible very talented Get ready to win a larger-than-life world soccer championship experience only at circle resort and casino in Las Vegas And Kelly when I say world soccer championship experience. I'm talking about a goblet that is global the big one That's right one lucky winner scores a two-night stay at circa VIP cabana for the games in stadium swim With $500 in credit was $250 in food and beverage Arrived style and limbo transportation and celebrate with cocktails at legacy club here at circa and are now and kick off the world soccer championship at circle resort and casino For giveaway details visit circa las vegas.com We get tweets being the book all the best judo Connor after seeing you lia almost gacked back-to-back sets

13:19I was swiftly reminded to not watch but just tailed the profit known as guilt. Well, that's very kind of you She won that match about four different times yesterday. It was so frustrating to watch before she finally did win it Charles and Connecticut hoop homer. You okay Kelly Kelly's fallen over I brought it up before so I'll say it on air stop putting microphones below my feet So proud I keep kicking up Charles and Connecticut just finished uh season two of landman last night Definitely not as good as season one, but to say it fell off a cliff is not fair That's somebody else said that Season one was such amazing TV some drop off almost expected, but season two is still really really good Brendan S took a couple weeks, but it's on sale for four bucks It'll be gone before I go to work Monday. I'm not proud man. Just a man. He's talking about when I brought up frosted flakes being my favorite serially is He's got a giant size for us to play That's where it's dangerous man. I can't have like chips or cereal or anything like that in the house like a whole box Yeah, I'll just eat. I'll eat it in two days. I do not have the stop sign me either My own marker for 20 Scott Kinley. Thanks a lot guys. You kept talking about Calche

14:22I finally thought I should look into it now. I'm trying to guess high temperature and Miami and snowfall in New York City Not to mention how the Supreme Court is going to rule. Hey my own marker for 20 you have no idea the stuff I'm betting on It's An alien show up by it's certain date that kind of thing John Balducci Respectfully and we'll bring in the bear Chris Valica again for this respectfully Can anyone even say team A misses all the good teams next year in college football? Nobody knows anymore Chris Valica joins us once again courtesy the progressive guest line again. He's on well. I guess he's off barstool now He doesn't break you just have to back on commercial break I mean I might segment so far. Why do you think I made you read all those tweets? That's the cover it for enough time. There's still a cover that was what about John Balducci? Because that is an interesting point right that that do we really know yeah, he's right He's right a little look at the last two years Arizona state was picked to finish last in the big 12 Two years ago. They wind up winning the league and nearly beat Texas in the quarterfinal Right last year Indiana was a 125-50 to one whatever they were to win the title

15:24New quarterback a bunch of different players and people thought 2024 was a bit of a fluke and they're there were with eyes and trophy winner And in one of the title no absolutely the in Texas tech people thought they would be good But nobody knew they were gonna be this good and that's gonna be what one of the things that we're gonna be talking about is Not being afraid to take chances and take prices and long shots on these on these awards on the awards markets and on the The national championship out to make a playoff and such by the way on the serial note When I was in the store yesterday. I noticed now They have cinnamon pebbles. Oh boy. Go along with like the fruity pebbles and the cocoa pebbles Which was interesting and Gil you mentioned the frosted flakes during covid one of the very bad things That way that was in the house You take you take the frosted flakes and you can buy the lucky charms Marshmallows on Amazon So you get the frosted flakes you throw some lucky charms Marshmallows in the frosted flakes

16:25That's a problem pro tip pro tip You're like like that 11 year old who got uh what the lottery so much but a order special marshmallows from here All right real quick before we before we get off the uh the world cup And we got a bunch of picks here from Chris on all kinds of different sports repeat again your golden boot bet is on Yeah, I I don't know the predict pronunciation, buddy Spanish player. It's oil or a thobble. I believe it is like it's like OZY Okay Yeah, he is that start, but I would expect Spain to be in a lot of blowouts that I think he could get Some some second half some subs goal some goals in the coming off the bench and I think they're obviously going to go a long way So he was 30 to one and then I played Portugal to reach the semis I think the way their potential path could go they win their groups. They're going to get a very favorable Right is 16 very favorable quarterfinal matches. I think Portugal

17:26There's still obviously plus money to get to the semis. Those are the two world cup bets That I do have in pocket right now. All right, and then you have a soccer bet and league one this weekend tomorrow Yeah, France France league one I bet Marseille plus 105 to beat lens Lens has been kind of a surprising team this year and in league one there right now I believe second to to PSG who ultimately is going to win the league Marseille is a team that scores a lot of goals They actually lost at home To over pole this week in champions league Mason Greenwood I believe still leading the league one in goals. They had a lot of opportunities couldn't finish And I think this is a match here where where Marseille comes over comes the disappointment of the champions league home loss earlier in the week and I think they do Beat Lens in Marseille on Saturday. Okay to the horses You've got a few here at Gulfstream. What he got for us including the Pegasus World Cup. Maybe crescendo to that Yeah, I do and then I'm going to sneak one in on you with the two in on you at the end one more than one something else

18:31Okay, but I did not tell Kelly and you that I'm sorry Gulfstream race seven big big card a bunch of great stakes races It Gulfstream on Saturday and I would imagine their handle is going to be up quite a bit because you're going to see a lot of cancellations Throughout the country because of the weather. So I take a look at the Gulfstream race seven is the first horse that I kind of isolated The Gulfstream Park turf sprint the number three horse litigation I'm very good here as riding for Brian Lynch. I think the flow of this race Really sets up well for litigation a lot of front-end speed here Coppola a horse that litigation just nudged out before in in the last race didn't really have a great trip But I think with so many horses potentially on the front end here. I think litigation If five to one I'd be ecstatic if we got anything close to that horse has been less than three to one each of his last four Start so we may not get We may not get the five to one but anything close. I will take there Then I'm going to move ahead to race nine the William Elmock night

19:33And I am going to back back a horse by the name of Miss the Cut The number six horse here who is also six to one on the morning line. I bet this horse Last time out in the optional claimer. It feels like that race was a prep this horse had a brilliant trip With six seven y the entire way around finally had an opportunity to come Running late and absolutely just missed Uh, I think this horse getting a little extra ground here Uh bobby the boner does very well on that turf course down there uh I think this horse is super live Miss the cut in the William Elmock night and then the Pegasus. I heard my sandwich talking yesterday about this race I agree. I think this is a race to go price hunting I know he landed on tap and street here Which I can uh, certainly understand and appreciate. I am going to go with an even longer shot I'm going to go with the number four horse banishing who was 20 to one on the morning line this horse Right on the breeder's cup spring didn't necessarily run great. It's kind of bottled up

20:36Was favored in a and a stakes race at oak lawn a sprint race last time out now this horse is a sprinter stretching out We've seen this horse have success both at oak lawn Sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure. Yes, Churchill. Thank you And other horses be covering a root of ground had a really interesting workout a couple of weeks ago kind of to get ready for this race Jose Ortiz has just riding this race for the exercise I think this horse banishing the four horse is super live because again like like like Mike had said yesterday You've got disco time. You've got British Isles in there. It was a speed horse. Baticot road is in there Um Captain Cook is in there meek. There's a lot of horses that are going to show us our front end speed And I think maybe that that workout a couple of weeks back despite a sharpened banishing up just a little bit and maybe this horse takes back It is not on the front end. So those are the uh the three the three that I have for you on a unsaturday

21:37Two other things that I threw on your late here that you're unaware of Spartacus 125 to one in the Kentucky Derby pool. Oh, uh, it's listed It's posted it sees yours right now. This horse for Todd Pletcher is debuting on sunday So make sure you get over fire up your app and bet this horse before the uh the race on sunday where This horse will probably win that made an race and you're going to see the odds come down quite a bit And then I made a bet in hockey and only because I my wife is a penguins fan and I have a couple other friends who were penguins fans We were talking like Dan Muse is 30 to one to win the jack Adams award as the the best coach in the in the NHL I know bednar and Cooper and all the usual suspects are at the top of those teams were supposed to be good The penguins were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league And right now they got more points in the biggest gold nights more points in eminence and they beat Earlier this week like This team is very easily a playoff team as long as the bottom Doesn't completely fall out and I think with the core that they have and the kids that are playing so well

22:4130 to one on damn used to be jack Adams I love your year in the NHL I thought was a bit worth making bonus plays from chris and real quick because and we left it for the end because you don't have really Super amount of conviction on the NFL championship games, but we have two sentences for us No, I went back and for earlier in the week. I kind of like Denver But now I've like gone the other way and like you know what might just be one of those deals with the patriots with I don't think Denver is going to be able to run on them And I do think the Rams are the best team. I thought the Rams have been the best team. I like the Rams But you got dr. Bob you got says let them break it down for you They're coming up and some of UFC 324 next on a numbers game right here at vc A numbers game on v said these sports betting network back on a numbers game live from circa resort Casino and downtown Las Vegas Gill Alex and they're Kelly Bidlin alongside So we read a couple tweets here from aia. Oh, yes S69 it says so when I was in the Navy

23:42We're in the northern sea of japan one of the coldest places on earth Literally everyone on the flight deck. We're standing behind the f-14s to keep warm We'll ask Jordan Sherwood momentarily. He's in Chicago We're talking UFC 324 with him how cold it is there. We should really ask this of every guest. We have around the country P5 legends gill regarding caddiness on the women's side of the australian open bracket in an alternate universe How great a villain tag team with osaka with her hello kitty looking soft-spoken What did I do feigned innocence and ostopaco the OG of confrontation make for WWE That'd be a good tag team. I'm gonna need a follow-up tweet on that first one Yeah, everybody would stand behind the fighter jet to stay warm. Yeah, I think what best we said Because I'm assuming that means the fighter jet is you know on. It's like turning on a car right you'll say It's on right like that aren't those engines pretty powerful I mean, I'm gonna need more details on this. They'll follow. Yeah, game time Jones I can't hear penguins without repeating it in t-wish nebs yinzer's accent Yeah, there's that as well Let's also you want some chef to real quick. Here's a good one for you Adam chef to report. It's better be real

24:46Get this for better. Make sure you get a real one. This is Ilip Rivers to interview for the bill's head coaching vacancy Are you serious? Yep Really Yes, Josh Allen is going to be a part of all of these interviews with Buffalo Bills Phillip Rivers If that is true interviewing today for the Buffalo Bills head coaching job goes from three here It is Adam Schefter yes pan sources former Colts quarterback current Saint Michael Catholic high school coach Phillip Rivers interviewing today for the Buffalo Bills head coaching job wow That does not mean he will get the head coaching job But the fact that he is interviewing for it is continues this Two months of amazement in the life of Phillip Rivers come back coach of the year Here we go who goes from high school coach To Everybody clamoring for him for comeback player of the year as a three-game player for the Indianapolis Colts And now this that's wild interviewing for the Buffalo Bills head coaching job good

25:49God Wow, if Josh says it's okay. I'm okay. If Josh Allen says yes, then that's gonna happen Let's talk some UFC 324 with a man wearing Chicago Bears Top Jordan Sherwood joins us now. We're always love talking to Jordan about UFC You can follow him by the way is the MMA advisor for fat jack sports also co-host of the unnamed MMA podcast Wood on ESPN 1000s where you can find them on Twitter Jordan good morning to you first things well a couple things one Sorry about the bears. That's the first thing. Yeah, but what a season I'm sure you're thrilled about it and then too. How cold is it there man in Chicago? Yeah, I mean right now it's it's called it's negative six windshield makes it negative 30 The issue really for for me us is that the kids are home from school Schools are closed. So, you know, one of them could walk in here while we're live But the bear season making it a little bit Not it's cool just because yeah, we know our most bear spans in the own believe they have a head coach and they have a quarterback

26:52And they've never had that combination Basically in their franchise history. So excitement for the offseason and what's the common 2026? Well, let's start before we get into your handicap on some of these fights this week of your UFC 324 here in Las Vegas by the way T-Mobile um The we started the show by saying because we was going through the rundown We mentioned oh you were coming on and I sort of casually said hey the big thing with uf C is hey no more pay-per-view. They're gonna be on paramount plus and we've got nothing but paramount plus tweets Like the rest of the day so far on this. This is a big sea change in UFC though to be serious about it going from You know pay pay-per-view to the subscription model now, which is I I would imagine roundly Considered to be an awesome change now that everything is available in a much more easier and cheaper fashion I'm curious and I start I sort of sheepishly say this to you because I don't want to offend the the UFC crowd But will this sort of gin up some Some theories maybe they're conspiracy theories of hey now that he now that UFC is that much more accessible will

27:57Will all things being equal fights always go to the more popular fighters in an effort to have them continue to be relevant So that ratings can boost is that a thing am I off base with that? No, not at all. I think that you know that this sport has always relied on its stars It's always relied on its star power to you know Make sure people were tuning in to pay-per-views and and following these fighters. I think now having this model leads to that You know, that's why the rumors are circulated the Conor McGregor is gonna make his return Maybe for this upcoming White House card and I fully suspect that paramount subscriptions will go up Maybe for a month just so people can have access to watch you know that fight. So Like this one that starts off the the new relationship It does have a budding star and patty the baddie pimplet He's at the on the marquee a chance to become an interim champion So that's a big deal for the UFC especially if he's victorious against Justin Gagey tomorrow night

29:02Well, it's it's the main and the co main right we have patty pimplet and we have sugar Sean as well So it is that kind of that that's why I bring up the question because we have those kinds of profiles here Let's start with the main patty pimplet is a big favorite over Justin Gagey Justin Gagey's a guy. We're familiar with all these years That he's been fighting has had some some huge wins Throughout his career Dustin porier. Maybe the top of that list has also really fought a who's who But pimplet is the big favorite pimplet adept on the ground. I guess more than anything. How do you see this going? Yeah, I mean, I think that It's a interesting stylistic matchup because Justin Gagey even though he's an all-American wrestler He just likes to go in there and just trade shots and have absolute wars That's why he is you know one of the the most prominent post-fight bonus collectors Because he just walks through he's like the terminator It's got very good leg kicks as well patty pimplet offers a you know situation younger fighter on the come-up seven fight win streak Gonna be to probably the better grappler if this fight goes to the ground

30:06patty pimplet is a submission ace even though lately in his UFC career He is liked to you know stand and trade and all albeit that a lot of the sharp action right now is on just engagey They like the stylistic matchup They like the fact that patty pimplet in fights has taken damage And if you take damage against Justin Gagey your the lights are certainly going out But I'm not on that side. I think it is patty pimplets time I think we're going to see a different version of patty pimplet tomorrow night a cerebral attack a more uh, you know conducive attack to his advantage and I think at some point we get this fight to the ground and patty pimplet Is able to submit just engaging get him out there inside the distance So I really like that place will get that number down from minus 230 for pen with to win inside the distance Eyes the direction. I'm gonna take tomorrow night I think it's patty pimplets time and I think just engagey's gonna hang him up after this fight. Yeah I guess part and parcel of what I was talking about is like and then and then weed out the older fighters Goes part parcel of that just engagey would would be part of that. So okay

31:11Sugar Sean is minus 205 against song yadong on this one And this was minus 300 at one point. It's come down some any reason for that in your opinion Yeah, I think I think there's still questions about Sean O'Malley his mindset coming into this fight You know, is he right or is he concentrating on some other things you don't have some power So if he gets into a striking exchange with song yadong there is that opportunity I guess for him to land something but I think stylistically this favors the sugar show His length his timing and his power to He doesn't have to worry about a wrestler like when Sean O'Malley was fighting marauded Obviously Lee and I think Sean O'Malley is going to be Motivated now because we have a new champion in that division Peter Yann's the champ He has a victory over Yann if he's victorious over song yadong He could be next in line to fight Yann or the Yann the will Yann maraud winner because there's likely going to be a trilogy fight between those two gentlemen later on this year So I like Sean O'Malley straight up on the money line. I think maybe a small sprinkle also

32:14On him the wind via decision if you want to get that price down from minus two dollars to close the plus money That would be the direction. I take but I think sugar gets his hand raised tomorrow night All right, you also have some some other thoughts on the main card. What are those? Yeah, I like the law firm of silver and silver So john silver or Arnold Allen to open up the main card I think he bounces back the fighting nerds get back on track He has a good match up against Arnold Allen just his power and his unorthodox style Gonna be victorious and although Rosian Amin unis has been at the top of the game forever a former champion certain future hall of famer It's Natalia Silva's time. I think she's just going to be the better athlete able to kind of dictate where that fight goes so Powerway of silver and silver and actually both of those fighters to win via decision I think you know, maybe would have been surprising for john selva not to get the finish But I think Arnold Allen's a tough customer So he's been to the top 10 forever. So both those fighters to win win via decision And if you want to get that price point down, parlay them both for those not watching let's review them all in the main patty

33:19Pimlett inside the distance minus 145 versus Justin Gagey in the co main Sean O'Malley on the money line versus song Yadong and then also on the main card preceding those two fights Natalia silver by decision versus thug rose were fading thug rose And then john silver by decision plus 175 versus Arnold Allen And then the silver silver money line parlay at minus 133 Jordan appreciated man Congratulations on the bears despite the fact that they're no longer in this great season and stay warm man. That sounds awful All right, thanks for having me out, fellas. Kids are at home Kelly. Yeah, kids are tough extra work Jordan said that the issue is the kids are at home I love that I will come back Dr. Bob on the AFC championship You need to listen to this the man is thorough and the man might be convincing to you or not we'll find out next on a numbers game

34:21You A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network Hey, we're getting ready for big game 60 with the big deal to match save 60 dollars off of visa pro annual subscription When you sign up using promo code a and g A and g as in a nagging net We come a visa pro annual subscriber bet smarter all year long with full access to our daily best bets from visa And hosted guests real-time draft kings of circuit betting splits AI powered prof tools and matchup analysis 24 seven video and full show replays on the visa and watch app Plus all our betting guides and expert picks for the sewer roll and upcoming march madness Don't miss out on this big game deal visit visa.com slash subscribe. Use promo code a and g The save 60 dollars off of visa pro annual subscription today. That's vsin.com Slash subscribe Boy listeners just checking in from everywhere Fred courier from buffalo 11 degrees He says huge friday best three hours of the day cold here though 11 degrees feels like minus 12

35:26Then we have mark van kino who says chili minus two in Detroit He said nice to see you last week at circuit checking from metro Detroit Where's a chili minus two and so cold that I'm taking the dog for a walk inside the local home depot It's a good to call while we're checking temperatures. Let's get doctor Bob on the show ladies and gentlemen He is at doctor bob sports dr bob sports on twitter. That is dr bob sports dot com on the worldwide web He is just outside of Denver, Colorado site of the aFC championship game this Sunday Bob. Good morning. What's the temperature where you are Good morning. Oh seven degrees. Good god Chili seven degrees Um, all right. You were kind enough to come on the megapod yesterday You gave a great dissertation on both games, but but especially on the aFC championship I thought and I've asked you and you've been kind enough to Revisit that for the numbers game audiences today. So please the floor is yours sir All right, you're starting obviously with the bow nix injury Betty market is reacting as if nix is an elite quarterback and his backup is terrible

36:31Neither of which is the case nix is below average in the league and yards per pass play during both seasons as a pro despite having an elite play collar and Sean Peyton and an elite offensive line. Allow just six acts this season and if you look at Jared's did in the back of who's going to start for Denver if you look at his career in the four stars He's had in his career. He's had a 45.3% success rate low nix has a 45.0% success rate Both quarterbacks are averaging 6.0 yards per pass play Over their careers and nix was the same this year's last year I don't really see you know what the difference is here aside from nix being more mobile and being a better runner So we can add that in his expected point to add a per play the season was plus 0.09 expected points added per play Instead of his four starts his is plus 0.3 EPA per play That would put him around the 20th best among starting quarterbacks this season which obviously is

37:33Terrible and nix is a fairly mediocre quarterback the difference between 0.09 EPA per play and 0.03 works out the two and a half points per game So it's not it's not like the six or seven points They adjusted from like minus one and a half or minus two all the way to plus five or five and a half now is down to four and a half That's just a ridiculous adjustment Even Sean Payton when he was in New Orleans is back up quarterbacks. Well, I think we're less talented Payton Hill Trevor Simeon Teddy Bridgewater when he was in New Orleans those three combined for plus 0.2 EPA per dropback Which would be a little bit less than a three point adjustment But just can't get my head wrapped around a six or six and a half points swing in the line Just usually go to from nix to stittum and for reference When When Joe burrow without this year for Cincinnati, they adjusted they adjusted more than that For nix this week than they did for burrow when he was out early this season It's just a ridiculous adjustment. I think there's a lot of value there. I also like the matchups here

38:36Patriots You know obviously their pass rush has to good success in the first two weeks But the charges and Texans are among the five worst offensive lines in the NFL and the Broncos led the league and past blocking efficiency The they'll be able to protect stittum and by the way those numbers I mentioned for stittum that wasn't with an elite play collar and an elite offensive line I was with them laws of the biggest raiders mostly So I think stittum numbers could be better here the only problem is obviously that he hasn't really played in a couple of years So the speed of the game could be an issue So I did adjust 3.8 points is what I settled on more than what I think it probably should be and that's about as high as I could possibly adjust But I do like the matchups here Sean Payton's offensive historically excel with layered deep shots and seam attacks within the opposing defenses play man coverage That works out because the Denver's offense is going up against the Patriots defense that ranks that has the seventh highest cover one rate in the league and Denver's offense average 22% more yards per pass play versus cover one compared to the other coverage is so relatively They're better against cover one Patriots play a lot of cover one

39:39Also stittum's more comfortable throwing the ball down the field to take advantage of cover one Fittum's average 12.7 yards per completion in his four career starts Nix is more beank and dunk average 10.2 yards per completion this season So I think like it said it might be better off better in this against this type of defense where they want to throw it down the field more Bronco ground game probably be slowed up a little bit New England's got a decent a pretty good run defense and it's been better with Defensive line of Milton Williams and linebacker rovers belain on the field this season Let's belain can be uh attacked in coverage belain surrender 39 receiving yards per game seventh worst among linebackers And Denver's offense targeted running back to the eighth highest rate in the league and through the third most screen passes in the league So Peyton probably featured the screen game to take advantage of spleen and coverage Um, you know, they obviously what Denver has on wide receiver issues But Pat Bryant has been upgraded to probable which is good Tony Franklin number two receivers questionable And I don't think that's an issue at all. In fact, it might be better Franklin without

40:39Franklin only averages six point eight yards per target back at Marvin Mims has 93 yards and eight targets last week And Mims has average eight point eight yards on a hundred and forty eight career targets So against cover one you want Mims not Franklin So I think the Denver offense will be fine Patriots defense obviously Um, I mean, excuse me that the new England um the Denver defense obviously Is very good and give give new England trouble new England has trouble drake may have said trouble picking up blitzes this season Um, and uh the Broncos have the fifth highest blitz rate in the league He's drake made 27th relatively against the blitz compared to standard pass rush So I think that matchup works for the the the uh, the uh Denver Broncos defense You also got the Patriots left tackle will Campbell had I was having a decent season but then he got hurt And in the three games since he's come back he's a lot of 10.4 percent pressure rate with three stacks allowed That would rank 87th out of 98 qualifying tackled and he still seems to be a little bit off

41:42And he's going to go up against Nick Bonito who's second in the league in pressure rate So I think that's an advantage for Denver as well I don't think Denver's going to be able to run much on new England But they they should be able to get their running back active in the in the screen in the in the In the screen game But the the Broncos defense is number two in the league Against the posing running back in the past games the new England screen game will be slowed down I think it's just going to be a tough you know tough matchups for both side you know both sides of the ball for new England Relatively and I think there's value on Denver because they overreacted to the starting quarterback being out. So I like like Denver plus the points here. There it is Well, and what did you think when when the games were over last week by the way dr Round of applause for that thorough thorough analysis when you were anticipating the line you expected it to be what I thought maybe you know plus two plus two and if I go man I hope I can get a plus three if they overreacted

42:44Maybe it's going to be plus three and all of sudden it's plus five and a half of like what It is this is this you know Lamar Jackson We're talking about with a seven point adjustment or Josh Allen or like I said they adjusted more for you know They adjusted less for Joe burrow being out for Cincinnati and they adjusted for for nicks being out Look at nicks as numbers six point yards per pass play With a defense with an offensive line that never gives up facts You know that's that's not very good. I mean nicks is not a good quarterback He's a decent quarterback in a great system with a great offensive line So I just don't understand still can ball. I mean next crossby came out as like you're going to be surprised This guy we went against him to practice when he was with the raiders He goes he is going to surprise people and then next crossby knows what he's talking about I think so I wouldn't I'm not surprised at all if If you know Denver wins this game, but I make the Patriots a one and a half point favorite So I still you know there's value of plus four and a half obviously had a curiosity

43:45Maybe I'm putting you on a spot here, but and maybe you don't know But what would you have made this line had nicks played? I think it was two If I recall the looking head before last week stuff came out before the The last week stats were added in the model. I think it would have been Denver by two Denver by two Yeah, because we because we had a bookmaker on air earlier this this morning say that with a nicks He would have opened it at New England minus one and a half and I just thought that's enough. No Yeah, I thought so too. Well, I wouldn't have used that word. I'll let you use that word of it But yeah, I mean I mean choose this quarterback turn it over what five times and they still didn't have that game put away I mean May's been a mess in the playoffs. I don't think he's been particularly good. He's been turned over prone to I mean I don't know. I mean, I'll play better. I'm expecting to turn the ball over three times again, but So may will be better, but it's just not a great matchup for for him going up against blitzes No, we'll think Bob. I appreciate it, man. Thank you so much

44:46All right, double duty from Dr. Bob this week Megapod and today on a numbers game at DR Bob sports by the way Dr. Bob sports.com DR Bob sports.com is where you can find him College basketball and full swing over there. So they got picks every day in college hoops. Shout out to Tanner He's right hand man as well doing college hoops with him We will come back Steve In the house. He's got picks. He's got thoughts. He's got opinions on all kinds of stuff next on a numbers game