A Numbers Game | January 21, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story of the allies now. Swandals, idiots who believe in athletics. This is a numbers game with Kill Ivexander, Convison. Aller number three of the numbers game at Viesin, these sports betting Network Viesin.com, Game Plus, I, Hard, Radio, YouTube, TV, and of course, Series XM, Channel 158. You can really draw it out if you do it that way. Yeah, it's good, it's good. It's Kill Ivexander, that's Kelly Biddle in everybody. My little buddy, Kelly Biddley. You can follow Kelly on Twitter at Kale by the lawn. That's K-E-L-L-E-Y-B-Y-D-L-O-N. Boom. There you go. Nailed it. I'm at beating the book. By the way, we get tweets at beating the book, Dan Groeschel, as a Bucks fan. I'm appreciative of Yannis for bringing a title to Milwaukee. But if he leaves, there will be a far-style dead spot in my heart until the day he retires. At which point I will resume my affection for him. That's fair. Yeah. I think that's how you're supposed to handle it with the guys like that. And Danny Bremet, I hope I'm proud to hear it. Okay, Danny says, I do believe Kelly should fly East in time to play

1:02with Super Dave Ross in the snowstorm this weekend. Apparently, Kelly, while you complain about the weather here, people are about to get destroyed. We end up having, we had randomly coincidentally today, two guys, see an Ajad earlier, who lives in Northern Virginia, part of the DMV as the kids call district Maryland, Virginia. And Warren Sharp set to join us now from the DMV as well, and by the way, as a great deal for decent listeners this week and get all of his conference championship betting recommendations for just $25 as best bets of the week are 15 and three on the season. That's 15 and three. Go to Sharp.Football and click the top link to get all of his plays for the weekend at a 75% discount. Warren joins us now, by the way, you can follow him. Not only at Sharp.Football, but at Sharp Football on Twitter. Warren courtesy the progressive guest line. Warren, how you doing, man? The snow's coming, huh? It's coming the snow and the cold, which is going to make it worse now. I've been tracking this storm. It doesn't impact any NFL games, but obviously it impacts my own personal life. So trying to make sure that I'm prepared for it is best possible.

2:04But I mean, they're calling Gil for like 17 to 20 inches of snow. Potentially, you never know. They're always wrong, that seems. But a lot of snow, and then for the next like week, it's supposed to not get above like 27, 28 degrees. So it's whatever's here is going to stay. Obviously, could result in power outages, could result in some issues. It's supposed to start Saturday night all day long on Sunday. Leave the area Monday. I think he's going up to New York and beyond further north. But like the further south, some of those areas that aren't used to getting weather are also going to get some, maybe in the form of ice. So it's pretty massive, but it does not impact either of these games which are being played out there on the west coast or Denver. So does it really impact anything for the NFL? It is interesting, because there's been many in winter. These are one of those storms where like the people in South Florida are the only ones spared where they're like, look out, we're we're genius for living here. I compared everybody else.

3:04I do want to say this before we move on though. You mentioned the thing about the weathermen being always wrong. Imagine that the weathermen, by the way, weather women as well, weather, weather folks, who do the local news in all these cities. I brought this up from time to time. They are never does anybody ever grade their forecast? Like it just feels like they can go 22% in terms of accuracy and yet they still can have the job forever. It is it is amazing in DC. They never get it right there. Do they? I don't know to your point. Do these people get raises and promotions and just get extended if they're good on air and are just good at being broadcasters as opposed to their accuracy? I wonder if like a number two or number three guy ever comes to like the boss and says, yeah, buddy, I know this guy's been here, but look at my rates. Like I've cracked him. I got my own rates. I'm so much better than he is. I'm sure. I'm a number two or three guy pointing that out to the bosses. I'm sure I worked at local news for about a decade. I think we're just painted a pretty good picture of it.

4:06I know pretty boy here's great on TV, but he can't get anything right. I'm sure that happens. All right, let's do this one by one. AFC Championship Patriots at Broncos in Denver at Denver. The first of the two games, three PM Eastern one PM mountain time. That's a noon Pacific for the four and a half point favored Patriots now here at circa. Yeah, there's probably a little more than that five or five and a half still out there to 42 and a half is the total war and what are your thoughts on this? Well, the first thing goes to Jared Sedum. Did we over correct from a odds micro perspective? Is there too much of a line adjustment for Jared Sedum being a quarterback? One thing we know Sean Payton has been able to work with some less experienced guys. Another thing we know is that Sean Payton has a massive ego and loves to make guys that he brings in look as best as possible. He sometimes does it in games early in the season. If it's a player that he was pounding the table for in the NFL draft room, goes out there and gets the guy a few extra stats at the end of a game.

5:09We've been able to bet on some props that way just because Sean, this was Sean Payton's guy. He gets a little bit more work and some blowout games. But in this particular instance, I'm just curious how much they're going to adjust their game plan. Gil forced it because Sean Payton certainly has confidence. He's talked them up all week. This run game, if they don't have JK Dobbins, this run game really is not built to support a team beating a team like the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots run defense is incredible. It's outstanding, especially with Milton Williams back in the fold. I don't know how much the Patriots are going to be able to run the football on the New England Patriots. We might get Stidham dropping back the pass more frequently, even if they don't want him to, because even if it's not really in the game design, it might just be something that needs to happen. As a result, you might have some upside here for Stidham to be utilizing his legs or some of these short passes.

6:10Then again, it could just be a disaster on that side of the ball. Stidham might be bad. Stidham might not have a lot of success and the New England Patriots might have the football and awful lot. And so some of their props might be undervalued. So it's an interesting way that you paint this. You sort of from a betting perspective or from a props perspective. You could try to take like a middle line. But you'll probably win more money if you decide to take a firmer stance that he's either going to be okay and therefore we're a lot of these Denver Broncos props are undervalued or he's going to be really bad. And therefore we might have some upside for ball possession and time of possession for the New England Patriots. Two things. One, your dog seemed to have objected to your analysis there. Wasn't very happy with your analysis. I think we can. Yep. And then two, I love the, you're not the only one to bring this up. But the the theme, the underlying theme of this game, the Sean Payton ego thing with Stidham that everybody secretly believes. And I think, and I think it's accurate that Sean Payton is just loving this scenario where it's like I get to coach up.

7:16A guy who's only started four NFL games and none since 2023 into a Super Bowl. I will look fantastic. Sean Payton, who acts like he's 147 Super Bowls. Man, I actually think that's the case. How that will manifest in the game. I have no idea. But I'm with you. I don't think it should have been adjusted this much. I really don't. To the NFC championship. Rams and Seahawks. I'll start with the same question I've asked of everybody Warren. I'll start this with you. Do you think this is the de facto Super Bowl? I don't. I think it's going to be an outstanding game. I think if you look at the way that the Seattle Seahawks have played the Rams, each of the last two times, I think that they probably believe they should have won both of those games. Sam Donald might have lost them both of those games with the way that he performed. And I think that the Seahawks have a lot of confidence being able to play at home with the rest, being in an environment that they know is very hostile for opponents. Now, I know this is not something like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming up here

8:20to play in the Pacific Northwest where they rarely play. This is the LA Rams they play here once a year at minimum. But I absolutely believe that this is a game that the Seattle Seahawks have to feel very confident in their ability to have success. Now, the Rams, of course, going on the road last week, going on the road the week before, the road warriors being made an underdog finally for the first time. They didn't cover either of those two games that they were playing and winning in the first two rounds of the postseason. But I was just very concerned with the offensive theme and the style and the strategy of Sean McVeigh in that last game. I expected a lot more heavy personnel. They couldn't utilize that in their game against Caroline in the wild card round because of the way Caroline plays defense and how good they are defending play action dropbacks. So they adjusted their offense played more 11 personnel shotgun style dropbacks against the Panthers. I thought they would adjust and play their more traditional 2025 Rams offense here in this game

9:22against the Chicago Bears, but they didn't. They kept 11 personnel spread the field using shotgun far too much and leaned too much into the pass. Didn't have the balance. Finally, they were able to find more success in the last half a last quarter of the game by leaning more into the run game. And so I just don't know if I have a lot of confidence in the game planning and the strategizing for Sean McVeigh here. Not to say he's one of the best coaches in the NFL. Obviously he is. It's going to be interesting that cat mouse battle between him calling plays offensively against Mike McDonald, the Seahawks defensive mastermind there. I think this is going to be a great game, but I absolutely still believe that while whoever wins this game certainly is going to be heavily favored in the Super Bowl. I do think that both of those teams in the AFC have a shot. Now, Stidham, certainly less of a shot than Drake may would have, but I wouldn't doubt Mike variable with two weeks to prepare trying to come up with a game plan that keeps that Super Bowl close. Especially the way that doing the Patriots start game scale.

10:22One of the best in the NFL at their early part of games, their first quarter, their first half, ATS. They're really good at that point in time. Maybe they don't get blown out early in that Super Bowl if they do face one of these teams. Just you're a matchup guy. I'm just curious what matchup would you like to see in the Super Bowl? Probably the one that I would think would be the most compelling to me would be the Rams versus the Patriots just to see strong defense of the New England Patriots with a quarterback that I have confidence in. I don't really want to see Stidham in the Super Bowl if we can avoid that. Going up against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVeigh and I think that that would be a great storyline. Seox could be a great storyline as well, but I would really enjoy seeing the former matchup there, Rams and Patriots. Yeah, Rams Patriots in terms of the look ahead lines anyway would be the closest lined Rams favored by three currently against the Patriots with a total of 50 and a half.

11:22Warren again with his big deal over there at sharp dot football. You click the top link to get all this place for the weekend at a 75% discount. Check it out there. Warren, thank you so much. All right, thanks for all this. Warren Sharp everybody at Sharp football. The deal at sharp dot football where you use code sharp 75. We will come back. Todd Wischneville joins us talk some college hoops with us. Money management involved. We shall discuss next on a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge that's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use no secrets no fluff just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with visa and pro. A numbers game on fee set these sports betting network a check this out right here Kelly Billy the most memorable sports betting moments of 2025 a visa and special.

12:39This coming Tuesday so six days from now this coming Tuesday January 27th at 1 p.m. Eastern 10 a.m. Pacific hosted by Tim Murray as it's a retrospective of all the most memorable sports betting moments of 2025 and a whole bunch of folks from visa involved in sort of giving their little spin on. Some different events like the Dodgers unbelievable game seven win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Shadour Sanders fall from grace from the top of the NFL draft of the fifth round those kinds of things the most memorable sports betting moments of 2025 Tuesday January 27th at 1 p.m. Eastern hosted by Tim Murray right here at visa. Looking forward to that great looking graphic by the team yeah man like the sea shadour is in a suit because it's the draft betting correct that's why he's not in a uniform like everybody else. See the thought that goes once again once again you have sust out the thinking you've done a great job on that we get to be speaking about Paul M.

13:39You know we can analyze both these championship games all we want tons of opinions but all you need to know is osperlman pick the Rams over the Broncos 23 to 14 enough said yeah we've brought it up already 23 to 14 Rams he called it. Jody Boggs on deck Todd Wischneff aka he said conference champs aka division champ coming up with gilly should be an entertaining seven Drake majors the appearance question mark. I don't know I might ever take majors he already won the he already won the division so. Uh guess chair was championship though and the numbers guys is the problem Todd's run into is the books have gotten the algorithm more dialed in after six weeks or so of play and now it's just a crapshoot since approximately. January 1st as a tailor of Todd's it's been much harder to replicate his plays on top of his success before well why don't we bring in Todd Wischneff as the star of Wischneff Wednesdays here on the numbers game. There he is all all purple home one of his mega potter ants also the star of the megapod by the way which championship week guest is Dr Bob this Thursday Super Bowl week guest Rufus P body there as well Todd Wischneff from Pittsburgh P.A.

14:45How you doing Toddie. I heard Tim Murray the first thing he'll be going over in the for the best moments of 2025 is my massive division win in the megapod. I really appreciate that. Yes, thank you. It's first the table. That's separately. Don't worry, Todd. It's a whole that's a whole shoot. So okay, let's go through some of these things. Well, first of all, you're in Pittsburgh. What's the weather supposed to be like there? What are you getting? Oh, I don't even want to talk about it. It's so ridiculous. It's supposed to be. It depends which model you if you go with the European model. It should be eight million inches. And if you go with the other model, we're just looking at seven point five inches. So do your preparations. All right. Well, let's talk about it. Let's talk about a few things. The Todd Edward just nailing what local news here in the past two seconds to a great job. Great job. Great. Great. We didn't we didn't expect for this to be a roast of local weather people. Well, that was the South Florida hurricane thing every time. Like the European models got it over here. But I don't know about that one. What is the Doppler have it at? That's another whole other thing.

15:45All right. The numbers guys just asked a question. And let's just go through it. Todd was scorching red hot in college basketball. Sort over a hundred units. It has not been as hot here in the late. That's for sure. So let's talk about a few things. One, let's let's just address the numbers guys question. Todd first, which is. Is it because the algorithm is more dialed in after six weeks or so of play? And now it's just a crapshoot. Let's start there. I'm not really sure that's true. I mean, I tend to play a lot of first half overs. And it could be that maybe the speed of pace of the game has slowed a touch. But you know, I'm usually looking for the fast games anyway. So I'm not sure the answer is I'm not sure. Because last year I did very poorly beginning of the year. And then in conference play, I did very well this year. It's coming back the other way. And it really just feeds into what we. What I want to talk about today, which is basically you have to have money management. And you have to understand that small sample sizes are hundreds of picks.

16:46And this is why, you know, I love to give Gillian and and and Willie the business on the megapod about how badly they did. It doesn't mean anything guys. If you go in 54 picks, if you go, you know, 20 and 34, it's meaningless. You know, people think, oh, 54 picks, you're terrible. You went 20 and 34. No, you had a bad. No, you might you might happen to be terrible. But it also could be just you ran into a bad run. 54 picks means nothing. And let's just look in the numbers. But basically about what you were just talking about up to January 2nd. I had made 770 college basketball picks from the beginning of the year. November 3rd to January 2nd. So in that two month period, I made 770 picks hit 62% by going 478 and 292. Wow. To be fair versus about a minus 118 and a half by rate. So not against the minus 110 because I'm mostly paying minus 118 just to be 100% fair. And on a minus 118, you got to go about 54% to break even as opposed to 52.4 versus a minus 110.

17:49So if you hit 62%, you know, you got to take a point and a half off of that because you're instead of 52 and a half break even it's 54. Okay, fine. So that's an amazing stretch. And if you remember on the discord, I kept saying, guys, this is unsustainable. This is not going to continue. You must be careful. Okay. Now since January 2nd, we have now made 250 to picks. So 770 in that first period. And now since then in the last, you know, 18 to 19 days, 20 days, 250 to picks. And I've gone from plus 129 units. That was the high water mark. 107.7. So around 108. Let's call it down about 21 units. My record in that 252 pick period is 126 and 126 and exactly 50% since January 2nd. So you might say, oh, like what the questionnaire just asked, oh, is it different? Now it's conference play. Maybe Todd doesn't know what he's doing in conference play, but that might be true.

18:52I'm not saying it's not, but I tend to think it's not. Because I've been through too many seasons like this where sometimes I do good in conference. Sometimes they do good in pre conference. It's sometimes it's about the same. So again, 250 to pick sounds like I'm billion picks. It's really not guys. It's really not. I want to write an article by pinnacle years ago where they said, if a guy was up after a thousand plays, there's a 21% chance he was just lucky. Yeah. So it's very hard. And this is, you know, people overreact and they think, oh my gosh, 226. So which handicap are am I? Am I the guy who went 126 and 126? Or am I the guy who went 62% in the first 770? I'm neither. There's right there. It's just variance. There's so many great lessons in there, though. The two biggest ones again are the sample size lesson, which is so true. And that's why I always say about contest. If you crush contest two years in a row in the NFL, it's still only like 150 games.

19:55It's nothing, right? It is not a predictor of what could happen in the future, generally speaking. And the other, the other point you made, I don't want to gloss over, which is, you know, people say, oh, is it just not as good a conference play after January 1st? And you make the point every season is different. It's, I'm glad you brought that up because we tend to on these shows say, oh, the beginning of college basketball. We tend to generalize. I found that when I used to handicap baseball for the entire summer. Some years, I would be outstanding at the beginning. Some years, I would be outstanding at the end. I could never make a consistent, you know, conclusion with any of that. And I think mostly it comes down to that as well. So I'm glad you make that point as well because people tend to want to explain. And sometimes there is no explanation, right? They want answers. People want answers. There's 300 billion galaxies. So we came up with something called religion to give you an answer. Here's the answer, folks. Sorry. That was just a little shot.

20:55But it's similar. It's really, it's really something. The reason I make that joke is because people are dying to put answers on things that don't have answers. Or maybe they have partial answers, right? Maybe there is a partial answer that conference play is a little hard. But we can't be sure. And if you've played for this long as I've played these called basketball games, like you said with the baseball, you have to understand hundreds of picks is a small sample size still. Yeah. Anyway, I think it's a worthwhile discussion because you know, for folks who are new betters or new to betting, what's Dr. Bob's line, your success as a better can often be traced to your ability to overcome negative variance. But it is in that line is built in. You just have to accept that variance is going to happen. And sometimes it's negative sometimes it's positive. Last thing before you go is one of 60 seconds. You brought up something in the group chat. I'm just kidding the religion people. They don't have to get all agree. I know. I'm glad you said that. Okay.

21:5560 seconds left. You brought up something in the group chat, which is just a theory or spitballing. Again, along the lines of, hey, let's try to explain some of this perhaps. But they had to do with a transfer portal explain. Yeah. You know, I noticed this year, second half teams down at home, typically have been a real good play, especially when they didn't shoot well from three and the other team did. And this year just doesn't seem to be. And I could be wrong again. It's just something that you know, I watched thousands of games. So it's just that I feel like the second half home teams are not as strong. And I, I theorized on the texture that we all do. It could be because of the mercenary nature of N I L. And in the past, when everybody had so much to gain, kids dug deep at home. And your coach would go, right, this is our house. This is our house. No one's coming in here and beating us in our house. And then the kids would come out in the second half and just dig in and not let them lose at home. But maybe now you got mercenaries in there going, hey, I'm going to be gone in four weeks

22:56because it's right. It's telling me to raw, raw, I'm going to be on North Kentucky State next year. Screw this guy and I'm not digging deep. So again, just the theory, but it has seemed to be, you know, some teams just like wake forth last night. It makes sense. It makes sense. It makes sense. It's not my house. I'm just renting. It's just a rental. Wish never Wednesday. Thank you, Todd. Appreciate it. Todd, wish never. Thank you, everybody. We're here along with full access to our daily best best from Vs and hosts and guests. Real time drive Kings. The circuit betting splits.

23:56AI powered prop tools and matchup analysis. 24-7 video and full show replays on the Vs and watch app lists. All are betting guides. An expert picks for the Super Bowl and upcoming March madness. Don't miss out on the big game deal. Visit Vs and dot com slash subscribe and use promo code ANG. ANG is an nimble mound to save $60 off a Vs and pro annual subscription today. That's Vs I N dot com slash subscribe. That's our way of getting you guys to put an ANG. All those Kelly these you'll remember ANG. I I appreciate the second chance this time. You're welcome Because you know whatever what did I say the first time around? I was not good Uh-oh a nimble next game like it has game in there already Kelly. It's not a good one. No, geez. You're better than this get it together Buddhist man on Twitter on the trip down memory lane earlier the dulcet tones of Jeff parlay aside How much have we aged in a short period? He says except for phasic during his brief during his performance enhanced hair coloring stage Yeah, you know Todd had no idea Stevie was coloring his hair Well like most of the man. I'm like are you a bad guy? Steve would it do whatever makes you feel best about yourself

24:58No, don't do it. Don't do it. Don't call her but like no for a long time. He did it like well It was just the like the one like the one period where he let it go for too long and then went very very Jet black with it. Buddhist ads. Well, I have adopted a shorter style I commend Gil for leading into his fireball stage. I don't know that reference I don't know that reference at all. Was that is that who is that right there? I will say this that was the startling thing of that video for me and I will say this Kelly This is what I'm running man. I believe this is what happens to me to men or at least I will just speak for this man This is what happened to me when I was in my early 40s. I Still looked way younger than my age and Then as the years progressed that's that age that was below my actual age came smack and dab into me Caught me and now I might even add might have gone past me Maybe it's waking up at 455 a.m. Every morning. You've worn me about this a couple of times. That's coming Yeah, right on the verge of that 40 marks. So in 10 years, I'm going to look like it's 20 years

25:59What I look at how we're past me. We do a couple minutes. Look at that guy. Look at that guy. Wow But first of all, he's also got the button down one one plunging. That's right. Yeah, he just he just looks more Tanned. Yeah It's ready to go. What's happening? It's ready to hit the town fallen apart and that was just four years ago We didn't even go back further. We could have gone back to like 2070 my pin tweet is like from 2018 Good god. I look like a child Feels like we were at the D for a lot longer than we were Yeah, we were at the D for one year and it felt like it was four. Yeah, yeah This was at the south point back then back in the day. Love that miss that studio Uh, and the haircut look I just got great here. That's the that's the biggest difference Rick Olie first thing I hear when getting into my car is wish and have pumping me up to defend his house and buddy Let me tell you. I'm ready to run through a wall Hashtag coach Todd Yeah, wish never he exploded on that didn't he? Yeah Great stuff from Todd was great today. I thought that was a fascinating segment You know besides alienating tens of millions of people with a religion fat other than that. It was great

27:04Yeah, other than that No, but I think the the overcoming positive and negative variants, right? Like like Todd was very very good with that at the beginning of the season I thought with like he was every time you'd try to build up how hot he was or whatever he would always say Yeah, this is this is not going to be the whole ceases not but Dr. Bob says it all the time Dr. Bob when he's having a good run race 63% he goes just to let you know I am unlikely to continue this performance I don't know about you man, but it's one of those like like for me. It's like you know from anybody who's done this for long enough Any sport done long enough Yeah, like it's when you get into a bad streak Like you know, it's gonna end like I know it's gonna end Yeah, you can get down in the dumps I actually think what's scarier is when you get on a hot run And like that's one of the first things you start thinking about So like wow, this isn't gonna last forever Like you just think it's gonna end every day and every day it doesn't it feels great But jt at pigs feet 747 says man may have been covered already But what's going on with the cedar shake and wish and have ceiling variants?

28:05Yeah Best listeners of the game clever clever is always cedar shake I don't sure I understood that part ready to talk some golf and go country clubbing. Yeah, let's do it. We be clubbing. Let's do it How are we gonna show the audience the gross digs I Yeah, we should we did he's holding something else. I don't even remember what the heck that thing is poor We got like a weird looking like Like taser situation in the in the control room the cool thing from the cool thing from our perspective is that We see the glow sticks and then I also see the glare of a glow So I'm seeing double the glow sticks probably as well. Oh, yes. There is that. Yeah. There's multiple pains of glass We should record it next time from our perspective Danny's holding a black light which I didn't get the explanation we have in the back for some reason. I don't know if I wanted all the reason American express odds. I love it. You have a conversation. I'm still Larry's trying to explain it three different times like again

29:08Yeah, it's like it's not going over there guys By the way, what was the the cedar what was dropped? I do you think that was some expert level roofing talk. Oh, is that what that was? I'm glad you did like I was like cedar shake shake what yeah, that looks like roofing panels to me Uh-huh American express odds. We talked about these earlier. We'll see a Scotty Sheffler plus 290 to win it By the way, he's also minus 120 to finish top five everybody else is distant Starting with Ben Griffin. Are you high on Ben Griffin this year? Hey, yes, or is it kind of Jalfon Sakeish Jalfon Sakeish. Yeah. Yeah. I mean like he's good He's good. I think there's there's definitely a part of my brain that wants to see or needs to see him put on the problem This is how how great he putted last year it was so great and it kept happening week after week that I think Gill That's just him and that's a great weapon to have yep But I kind of would like to see it a few more times first That's what I tried to say on the megapod about the Australian open. I was like hey

30:08I get it. Yeah, I was going to be great, but easy There's also like that's a nice thing about betting these sports right golf and tennis It doesn't mean I'm going up against Ben Griffin, right? Leave him alone and see you you'll figure it out. Where do you stand on Ludwig O'Bear? Who's the third shot at 22 to 1 plus 5 50 to finish top five? Well, you know, I've been big on Ludwig For a couple years now. This is but it hasn't really hit yet hasn't well. He's gotten what he's gotten two wins I think two wins, but really the consistency with him has been the tough part Yeah, it's been every time you're kind of betting him you're hoping to catch him at the right kind of moment And I think what does help if you're from a for a betting side of things Ludwig does fit certain courses better than others. He's a bomber off the tee You're going to look at it more at courses that benefit that not as much this week with when we get down to these How do you end up betting this? Well, it's over your ass from about the next guy because I can just go down the list. What do you think? That's where you'd hit that we'd stop there and roll on Henley, I think this is fascinating

31:10A lot of my bets this week and look beginning of the season I treat very differently than what we're in mid season Much like Gil with tennis We're waiting for data to kind of build up and that's really where we're able to sink in a lot of our money in these terms We're looking to sink in a lot of our money But the early in the season I thought look looking book to book and seeing different odds this week I can't even really remember a recent year where I saw such different odds out there for a book to book And of course at the beginning of the season a little bit more expected. They're going to be a little bit more in line You know a few months down the road But Matt there was guys I saw wildly different numbers and Russell Henley I think it's just fascinating to compare to just a week ago A week ago he was the 12-to-1 favorite at the Sony Open Right you have Scotty Sheffler and a lot of other talented golfers in this mix Uh in this tournament this week But like you've got Penn Griffin you've got several guys that are in front of him And Russell Henley did not play bad last week You know like it's kind of head scratching finish T19 And you're finding him mid-twenties

32:12I was able to get him at 27-1 He was a pretty easy ad for me this week I think there's a lot of trends you'll hear for the American Express You're looking for guys that have played over in Hawaii That wasn't exactly a huge focus for me this week Just because you have one less Hawaii event now It's only those Sony Open We didn't play the century But gorgeous course look at that Yeah really is Um So you have that going on You got some of these guys playing in TGL So I'm not as focused on what you've done You know the past week or two But it is a little comforting to know a guy that has teed it up Uh just a week ago And you can kind of see what he uh what he did He lost off the T last week Henley did But he's great with his irons on approach stats Gained with the putter So going to a course that's very scoreable And I do want to bring up circle back to something see a brought up This is not a Sheffler week for me At all kill this The course is this is a three course rotation It's a pro am it is designed to let the average Joe Be able to play golf and score This is a very easy very very easy course conditions

33:14That these guys are going to play in this week From the weather to the course themselves It's very simple where you want to bet guys like Sheffler at Or the tough ones where there's a separation between the talent itself When really this is a tournament that we've seen long shots win Most years I think it's the second longest average odds That you get from the winner in this group So it's pretty fascinating I think if you're betting first round leader stuff Be careful it will be course dependent They will play one of three courses the first three rounds Then they will have a cut to the top 65 And they get the programs out of the way And they'll play that on Sunday Over at the stadium course so get careful with that Get your bets after the break Yeah, okay We'll do that By the way we were showing that course is beautiful Gorgeous Where do you stand on Homes right on a golf course Would you would you purchase would you like to live on a on a fairway I mean if I was golfing out of time sure I would always wonder if a ball is going to crack my window I've seen that because I've seen me play Yeah, and I know it's possible I've been in a few houses Kelly's golf place and all our plays All the other side it's a numbers game at Visa

34:15These sports betting network A numbers game on Visa These sports betting network Well, Kelly, we've done it again What have we done Now another show in the books Almost We get tweets at beating the book K flow, K flow ends one Talk about the From earlier in the show says great mini-rant memory lane trip on bonds And I wholeheartedly agree Bud Ceeley presided over baseball Turned a blind eye and he's in How freaking insane is that Induct bonds, Clemens Palmero, Mani, Arod, Sosa, Sheffield Put Rose in as well Make it a wing, put a plaque, whatever But excluding them not knowing how many non-halafame worthy pictures We're also potentially using Is completely assinine I've excluded McGuire because I'm just not convinced he's all a favor But let's make it a merit based discussion This group of electors is going to put chase

35:17Utley in the hall of fame in the next couple of years He of 1,885 career hits No MVPs, no gold gloves Just five to six very good years Where he topped out at seventh in the MVP race Lou Whitaker was better than Utley And he's still not in It's quite a tweet It's a fantastic tweet and I believe all of it The people they put in Makes it even worse You know what I was thinking today For the first time as I was listening to that We watched these players You cannot fool us Yeah The uh It really, it really feels absurd Now that we live in the era of like transfer portal NIL money Point shaving off Like I don't all these stories we read these days Tell is a great point Do we care like who cares Think about they took Reggie Bush's Heisman away Yes Oh that's hilarious now, isn't it It's hilarious It's ridiculous The the moral grandstand Yes

36:17Yeah Like we're talking about something Like I said in that clip from four years ago We are merely stewards of these institutions Let us not have the arrogance to act like we should Determine who other generations beyond us in the future Get to even see or know about in this building Stop it Fairway Fred about my comment and my question to you about Would you buy a house on a golf course He says never live on the right side of the golf hole 85 to 90% slice It's good call It's good call Statologic sports As far as the aging At some point we all start aging in dog years Have phasic do the math on when the tipping point is If you look 10 years younger When you're 35 or 40 Oh yeah Catches up with you Old guy get off my lawns is living on a golf course sucks The perks hit their ball in your yard Drive up to it on their cart and hit the ball despite it being out of bounds I would sit on the porch and take the balls as soon as they hit them Get the hell off my lawn That's I mean That's a literal get off my lawn I was talking about this during the break Like don't you have to be aware of this is a possible situation

37:19Or a problem when you buy the house Yes You know what you're getting into Thanks go Justin main prize I lived on a course and was a member It's great because you take the commute process out of golf being so close If you're buying definitely pre scout the house and play the course So you know you're not in the line of fire Oh, you're always in the line of fire when I'm out there Justin I'll tell you the one that I've noticed recently is I will never move again Without spending A solid 20-minute skill walking around the entire place with my cell phone up Just like an idiot like in 2000 just trying to see what the signals like Oh, yeah Because you've ever gone into like a friend's place or something They don't have any signal in their house Yeah Or it's like you got to walk to this half of the house to get a say Oh my it's crazy I want to just to express how how comfortable you've become We are we are so comfortable that we are we are rarely aware that we're even on air That you were typing while talking for two senses there You were like yeah, so I don't think I was talking about it That's so comfortable

38:20I was trying to get out I was good to bed Oh god That's phenomenal What was that else off air that you said you wanted to bring up on air The crazy NBA injury report changing is not fun They used to be able to count on this at certain times And it's the every 15 minutes now they're forced to release a release a report Which is what you wanted to bring them Not really But now I'm bringing it up Because Kate Cunningham just got downgraded for tonight I already bet the under in that game And I was rushing to bet a little more of it now that he got downgraded No one I was going to bring up as I was watching I don't know how much Monday before the national championship game You watched of like the build-up shows Oh I watched I didn't bring this up I didn't know you're going I have seen this a couple of times now and it's hilarious I noticed this is what I went to the ludicrous show here in town A couple of you like a year or two ago now But then but then pitbull It's really funny that these guys who like Their biggest songs are are our Collaborations right and like they're not the biggest voice on the song And it's really funny to see them perform them in concerts

39:23And like they just like jump in when it's their time And it's like it's just playing in the background You know what I'm talking about do you see these I did not see that What I was what I wouldn't found no worthy on the pregame was Desmond Howard Letting us know that he lived in Miami maybe five times Like we get it Desmond We get it you live there Let's go I see you're on the canes By the way every one of the pregame guys on ESPN picked the canes to win that With the exception of Pad McAfee Who of course predictably won Hoosiers Maybe we should have known that that's how it result In that one Okay here are the bets Oh why do you have to give your golf bets? Oh yeah golf bets real quick start there Yeah we're running out of time sorry Danny Okay outright for me and more to come Long shots we're recording here in about two hours So I know I've got a lot of tweets about that Don't worry Westside to go see Indiana will be back on Tuesdays going forward Okay, we're getting we had to give West some time I'm on Henley Fitzpatrick burger Noren in Kirk Kirk I bet last week he missed the cut Kill I bet I'm at like 50 to one or something last week he's 175 to one

40:23I was like man that's a big number Alex Noren played some great golf in the fall a couple wins He was a guy I saw listed anywhere from like 40 to 70 to one So it was able to jump in at 65 burgers all over the place this week After you know, I think some solid excitement for him heading into the season they finished T6 last week So good finish by him I saw him as low as 35 I got him at 62 It's a lot of numbers that I'm betting this week Fitzpatrick's a guy Like Sheffler that usually I like to play in tougher events as well But he's a great putter you're getting 45 to one this can be a birdie birdie fest I like that number for him but where I think he can go out there and make a bunch of birdies Christian Kirk plays a wider receiver for the Texans loses and it's going to jump right in this golf tournament You're betting it wants to be impressive right? Yeah pretty good. Yeah, not since hunter renfero Have we seen this kind of thing happen? We've never we've never made that Chris Kirk Joe Have we all right? All right, that's it. That's it. Just the right. Yeah, just outright and I'll be adding some I mean I top five

41:26I kind of blend those all with all right. I'm on the Broncos once again plus five and a half There's the Patriots bed in Monday morning Kind of a no-brainer bet for me. It's just like yeah I'll uh Feels like what did I say about my my my Emmy hedge or try to hit the middle at the plus eight and a half in the national championship game Which by the way I'm still reveling in I shouldn't downplay it. That was great It just felt like the responsible thing to do Broncos plus five and a half feels like the responsible thing to do My Australian open bets once again. We are halfway through the second round. They're all still intact We'll find out if they're all intact after today Jesse Pagula to win Naomi Osaka to win and he get to win Three plays on the lady side at 31 to 1 odds 19 to 1 and 5 25 respectively also to win quarters Lorenzo Musetti to win the third quarter at plus six fitty. He's taking on His country mate Lorenzo Sonnego today and then Jesse Pagula to win the third quarter at four to one Hopefully she's a little less angry than her father When playing today. Oh, yeah, hopefully she can keep it in fact. She's not distracted by that press guys

42:27Maybe she won't this is right Keon Coleman on the camera after she wins And then Yannick center to win three grand slams this year plus four fifty you get to win two grand slams We'll throw that up as long as the australian open is going up And we won't put it back up again until the next slam But he get to win two at plus three fifty you sir Yeah, one MBA play for me tonight Pistons Pelicans under Wherever you find that must have been on the move all all morning here got bet up over night Still can't get over that under hitting yesterday. Oh, it's crazy. I was on the side too I had no business winning either one of the ones. Yeah, good on you. I paid for it later in the night with the king so Yeah, get in on that under reminder We talked about this past couple days blazers over 39 and a half wins. They don't play again till tomorrow night So figured I'd leave it on there And then NFL this week for me ram see hawks under 47 and a half got the see hawks six to one win the NFC I think I'm just riding with a kill And then Rams with the look ahead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl

43:28Hypophetical yep Rams minus three versus the Patriots thinking being again that The Rams in beating the see hawks will get a bump whereas the Patriots in beating the Broncos might not Will Hill was on earlier. He's on the Broncos plus five and a half versus the Patriots He's also on the Rams plus two and a half at the see hawks dog and dog for will in the championship games And then tonight in college basketball he's taking the long horns plus the points seven and a half of them At Kentucky good game in college hoops tonight Greg Peterson's fab five boys seems like a long time ago Richmond two point favorites against Rowan Island Tulsa laying the five and a half versus Memphis He is taking the one and a half on West Virginia taking the mountaineers plus the points versus there is on a state Then a couple unders Virginia tech Syracuse under 150 and a half and also the same number under 150 and a half on Washington and undefeated Nebraska Wow, what do you get to say that on the heels of undefeated Indiana and football Basketball undefeated Nebraska really what is happening in this world wow see in a jade's best bets He's on the Rams was two and a half of the see hawks and then a couple props

44:30Stefan digs longest reception under 18 and a half yards For the Patriots and then Ramandre Stevenson over 11 and a half rush attempts for the pets as well Those are all them and then see as oh see as America express bets Of course all of his outrights there. You see on the screen all five of them from math Fitzpatrick Ricky Fowler Jacob Bridgman Max Homa and Sammy Bala Machi Then he does a first round leader bets on all three courses. Yeah, by the way those outright bets are also qualified A couple of them are without Sheffler markets and a couple of them or a few of them are without big five Players markets those are all available So check it out again. Veson.com slash picks for all of it Prop points with John Hansen is next and joy from Veson. They sports betting effort You