A Numbers Game | January 21, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The number is called the story of those 80s and believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill. I like Xander. He said our number two of a numbers game. It beats in these sports, but he never beats a calm game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, series XM channel 158 Gill. Alexander Kelly Bidlin. Or shall I say Seth Rogan? Yeah, sitting next to me here. Just chill. Just chillin. Don't you have anything? By the way, you want a golden globe. Congratulations on your golden globe. Oh, thank you. Well done. Still what was that for for that show that studio or whatever. Which I've never seen either. Apparently is massively popular. Yeah. I heard it was good, but I heard it was good when it like first came out. You know, and you don't like hear again after it after that, right? Would something like if show first starts, you hear it's good from a couple of people, then you don't hear anything. I think I saw him win the award. He was like, this is so weird. I'm winning an award on something we want to do in a show on something like that. Um, still to come Nick Whalen on the show talking championship week in the NFL with us. We'll do some Australian open props. We'll also have a warrant sharp on.

1:03Toddie Wischneve with a little college basketball theory from him. We get tweets of being in the book Justin D. It's a shot of Kelly taking notes to never talk about any halls of fame ever again. Oh, well, from the office. What does he mean by that that you, uh, I don't know. I think Justin thinks I wasn't thrilled by that. That's a girl. That's a girl Alexander classic. Every time he wants to talk about it, I'm like, just racking up. I was speaking to that. Young Jeff Parles was highlighted in that video as well. Brian M on the, uh, oh, we have a clarification. He says on the O's predicting the score slash matchup. He didn't Brian M says Devonte Adams predicted it, uh, that they got there and it would be against the Broncos and the score would be 20 to 23 to 14. O's just said what Devonte was thinking and wrote on his hand. Brian, I have a counter to your counter, which is when O's Perlman was on this show. It was the mentalist. My reaction to what he did to me was, let me ask you a question. Did you read what my mind was thinking or did you plant the idea in my mind? Just the Dan Marley one. I'll never forget Dan

2:04Marley. Bro, that's you gave away the punchline of it all. I want people to go look at. Yeah, there's the Dan Marley one. Like I didn't, I didn't understand how he could possibly. First of all, dude, I had never heard for all the time we've done shows together. Never, never heard you once reference it. Well, so this was the whole thing. So, so, oh, first of all, O's figured out the card from a 52 or a deck of 52 cards. He figured out the card that I placed under my butt. He got that right. That was like, okay, I already did a cartridge. Then he was like, think of an athlete in any of the four major sports that you've never to your knowledge ever said his even name, even his name once on your show. And for whatever reason, in my head at that moment, I cannot explain why Dan Marley, thunder Dan Marley of the Phoenix Suns came in my head and I wrote a download piece of paper. And he goes, I think you think this and that, then Dan Marley. I never had to this day. I can't explain wild man. It was wild. Jeff Holddorf congrats Carlos Bell

3:05Tranforth attempted Andrew Jones ninth attempt for reaching the Hall of Fame. The work these two men put in during the last couple of years finally made them worthy of the honor. Hall of Fame voting is ridiculous. Roger Landcaster. Neil McCoy has done the Pledge of Allegiance on Facebook every day for 10 years now. Oh, talking about like, oh, you're saying Greg Peterson's streak has been has been topped by Neil McCoy doing the Pledge of Allegiance. Yeah, with the Pledge of Allegiance, like, what, 15 seconds? Yeah. Come on now. What nice job, Neil McCoy. You're a patriotic. Does y'all do that thing when you're in school? You're like, yeah, one nation under a groove. Did you do that? What do you think? That's how we said it. There's a little tribute to Funkadelica's kids, like one nation under a groove, indivisible. Uh, Buddhist man breaking news from the A and G investing, uh, do they do it in school still? I think that stopped. They don't do the Pledge anymore. Oh, we did it every morning. Yeah, I know we did too, but I think that stopped. And I'm not sure. And then I went to a private school and they were doing the Lord's Prayer. And I was like, did I miss some summer reading? I don't know what this is. What are you guys talking about?

4:07What are you guys talking about? Buddhist man breaking news from my A and G investigative reporter William Hilliam. He says, I'm sure Sean Payton, who's an ego maniac to begin with that film at 11. Yeah, he will did go all in on, uh, on Sean Payton. Seeing a shot is kind enough to join us for the DMV. We love ourselves. I'm Sia. He's hosting an analyst for sports line. You could follow him on Twitter at S I A N E J A D. That's N E J A D. That's what spells. Seeing a shot. See how you doing, man? I'm good. I'm learning things right now. I thought it was Oz, not oh, it's a, well, he pronounces it Oz for the Americans, but it's really us is how he pronounces it is native. Yeah. So we go. Yeah. It's a full like Bajon Bajon situation. That kind of thing. I feel like. Yeah. All right. But you know, for the American audience is Oz Proman, right? But it's Oz Proman is that what it goes with. Let me ask you before we get to golf, your thoughts on the AFC and or NFC championship. Did you make any bets? Yeah. I've made a couple of bets so far. I just bet Ramondra Stevenson. This is a player problem. I bet Ramondra Stevenson

5:08over 11 and a half Russia. Tams kind of juicy and that minus 135 minus 140 range. I really like him there. I like the Rams quite a bit. I think the Rams are going to win the Super Bowl. So I was kind of waiting to see if the two and a half would go to three Seth and Gil, but long story short, it looks like it's going to stick it two and a half. And so I'm just going to end up taking the points there. I like that you did that straight face. Just keep, we just keep running with it. Absolutely. Okay. Yeah. Uh, shall we go to golf? The American Express. See, uh, is this the first, is this the first time we're seeing Scotty Schaeffler this year? It is the first time we're seeing Scotty Schaeffler and he's predictably a very short favorite. Do you like the bet that I made minus 125 for him to win a major this year? That is interesting. Um, yes, I do like that. I mean, the part of me would say, gosh, there's so many great golfers and so many guys coming on, but at the end of the day, it's Scotty. I think it's a good bet. I personally wouldn't put a ton on that, but I think it's a good bet. Okay. Um, this obviously is not a major. It's the American

6:12Express where Scotty Schaeffler, just to give folks a sense of how odds are going to be when Scotty Schaeffler is playing in a non in a non major, Scotty Schaeffler is plus 290 to win this tournament. The next shortest, the next golfer on this market in this market, Ben Griffin, who had a great year last year is 20 to one. And the O bears of the world who were considered one of these, you know, up and comers to be one of the great golfers in the world. He's 22 to one and so on and so forth. The can't lays of the world are 30 to one. I mean, is this, I, good God, is this just the nature of golf now in 2026? This one we're going to see whenever he's involved. Yeah, there's a big gap. I, what I will say and, you know, I kind of chickened out. I bet that without Scotty Schaeffler market, I'm pretty fond of it, even though we know the hold in the math isn't great there. What I will say is at easier tournaments, easier layouts like this. And I'm sure Kelly agrees like it brings in all the golfers and it brings in the element of, well, Scotty can't separate himself quite as much on a course like this. That's kind of easy for everybody.

7:14Keep in mind, this is a pro am too, versus like, you know, a really tough course. And so I do think it lends itself to Scotty, you know, I would never bet Scotty plus 290 just in general, but I do think betting Scotty at this tournament doesn't really make a lot of sense. Maybe a more challenging course and more challenging track. It does make sense to play him. But I mean, this is the state of the game right now. Scotty is an absolute winner. And frankly, when you look at Scotty versus some of the other up and coming golfers, like the loot vigs or the hovelin, who's playing over in Dubai, like just just the younger generation of golfers, none of them have any closing outside of like Roy and some of the obvious ones. None of them have the closing ability that Scotty Schaeffler does. So I mean, it does make sense that a tournament like this, we're seeing this gap between Scotty and literally everybody else. And he's hitting it six yards further. That's right. That's right. So he says, Gil. So he says, yeah, let's prove, prove yourself to a Scotty Schaeffler. All right. See it. Had you had enough betting this then?

8:16So I did do the without market. I did the without Scotty Schaeffler market for the most part. I also dabbled in the without big five market, which would be a burn Scotty, Henley Griffin and loot vig. But ultimately, I went with some guys that I think are going to be able to score on this course. I mean, you gotta, you gotta rack up the birdies. And in my opinion, I want to look at guys that are really coming on. And I want to look at guys that are household names, but are kind of have fallen off the map just a little bit. Matt Fitzpatrick is one of those names where for like three years, Matt Fitzpatrick was pretty much bad, like just straight up bad. But last year, we saw it even before the Scottish open and the open championship. Matt Fitzpatrick really came on. And so I'm looking at him as a guy that's going to win a couple of times this year. And I'm just going to go ahead and be early on him. I took him 30 to one again in the without Scotty market. You can take him 40 to one if you want, including Scotty. Ricky Fowler is another guy that really came on last year. I haven't seen a ton of him. I like him 40 to one in the without Scotty Shuffle market. And then Jacob Bridgman is the next guy. I kind of have a funny story.

9:19If you follow me on Twitter, I thought I put $14 on Jacob Bridgman in the without market to bet to win a thousand. I accidentally hit two fours. So it's $144 to win $11,600 and change. So apparently I have that ticket that I'm really rooting for. If you want to go with me, everyone. Yeah, happy accident. But I did on this string. I put Jacob Bridgman in the without big five market because he is kind of a long shot. Max Homo is my favorite long shot, even though it should be Jacob Bridgman 75 to one without the big five really likes the way Max. We haven't seen him a lot lately, but really look like how he came on, particularly on approach and with the putter late in the season last year. And then Sammy Balamaki, I cashed on him twice in the fall swing first round leader and outright. This is a guy that can rack up the birdies 90 to one without the big five wouldn't be a sea in the shot segment without first round leaders your signature. What do you got? Well, we've got three different courses that we got three different sets of first round leaders, seven total on the Nicholas tournament course. I've got Pearson QD at 25 to

10:19one Jacob Bridgman at 30 to one and Sammy Balamaki at 35 to one at Lakinta. I've got Ricky Fowler at 28 to one Max Grazer minute 31. It should be noted that I think it's Lakinta that has Scotty Sheffler and some of the heavy hitters like Sam Burns or also Henley. Maybe that's one you want to avoid, but I do think Fowler and Grazerman can shine there in round one. And then on the stadium course, I've got Max Homa at 25 to one and Nick Dunlap at 33 to one. Let's go Max Homa. I don't know if you heard this off air. See, but Kelly Bidlin may be influencing betting markets. Would you like to share Kelly with the I guarantee you I'm not because otherwise it would they would listen to me three years ago. But yeah, draft Kings with the lowest 18 whole score market up now, which is what I've been yellowed about every round. Any round. So the lowest round of the tournament odds, Scotty Sheffler, your short shot 10 to one, Ludwig, Obergs, Burns and Ben Griff and 35 to one, can't lay McIntyre 41 everybody else on the first time you ever seen that. See you. Yeah, I've seen it. I just wonder if it's going to be throughout the four rounds. So this

11:21it'll be interesting. But yeah, I think maybe you are influencing this market. Take a look at Enrico Palazzo. He's got a good number. Oh, man, thanks for listening. See, I always appreciate it. See you in the shot. Always great to see you, man. I'll be back at the DMV in a few months. Hang out. Thank you so much. See you in the shot, everybody. S-I-A-N-E-J-A-D on Twitter. Does this stuff over at Sportsline? We'll come back. Talk about the NFC Championship and the NFC Championship next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pro's win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro. Hey, man, check for this out right here. Look at this thing. This is the Las Vegas World Soccer

12:34Championship giveaway. All the details about this, by the way, you can enter to win a world-class Vegas experience. That includes a two-night stay, a Cabana at Stadium swim with a $500 credit, a $250 food and beverage credit as well. Round of celebratory cocktails at Legacy Club, limo transportation to and from the airport, probably shouldn't have led with that. All of that, you can learn all the more details of that. CircaLasVegas.com. How about that? The Las Vegas World Soccer Championship giveaway. That's pretty cool. How about that? Derek Stevens giving you $750 to drink. That's what he's doing. That's what I took away from. So he's doing. Does he hand it to you? $500 and then $250. Does he hand it to you personally and say that to you? I don't think so. You got to go to the Cabana for the $500. Do you know what I saw they're trying to do in San Francisco? This just reminded me of this. So the new mayor, Daniel Lurie, who's like a rock star mayor now at this point, because he's turning the whole city around, they're doing something wacky. They're trying to break the record for the biggest crowd at a

13:36boxing match in the history of mankind. Why? Why is a great question? It's a great question. What that record is? I'm going to assume an Ali fight, though, where there was like 200,000 people somewhere, something like, well, I was like a hundred thousand or so. They're trying to break the record in Civic Center in the middle of San Francisco outdoors. Yeah, it was going to say, yeah, yeah, there's no arena here. There's no state. They've involved. It's outdoors in the middle of San Francisco. What could go wrong? Yeah, I'm trying to do that. No, you know, it's thinking about it. Remember that was the Pacquiao? Was it Pacquiao who was in Australia? They did that fight. I remember that fight. You know what I'm talking about? Didn't he lose that fight? Lost, right? That was a draw or something. I didn't think it was sketchy. That was the one where everybody, the announcer was like, oh, he's clearly winning the fight and everybody because they'll listen to the announcer was like, he's clearly winning it. And I remember tweeting. I was like, I don't think this fight is that. Yeah. I was like, this fight's way closer than people think it is. It just reminded me of that situation because it was outdoors, right? It was like in

14:39the soccer stadium or something like that. Yeah, middle of the day in Australia. Look weird. Yeah. We get to eat speedy. The book Roger Lanke. Oh, no, no, we need to read that one. Parked pardon me. This is from my eye. Oh, yeah. I always S six nine. All the Hall of Fames have someone in savory human beings enshrined. I will always remember when bases loaded and the dime, oh, when the bases were loaded and the diamondbacks walkberry bonds instead of blasting a grand slam. Yeah. Absolutely. What's my man's name? What's the manager's name? Buck Schoelter did that. Aaron Bender. I think it's time to take a big bite of Rory this week and bet no one else in the hero while winning with Nick Taylor at the Amix. What do you think about that, Gatley? Big bite of Rory. No. Where is five? Yes. Rory is plus 360 in the hero. Dubai desert classic. Also featuring Tommy Fleetwood, Terrell Hayden, Victor Hovelin. Yes. Big names over there. Shane Lowry. Chance Copperpots studio with Kelly Bidlin is really good. Lots of really long takes with a lot of

15:43dialogue. Congrats on the award, Kelly. Well, thank you. Appreciate it. We're three hard. Sam Ginsburg from Pittsburgh, PA says obviously owes the mentalist had trouble with Kelly because he thought he was reading Seth Rogan's mind. Exactly right. Chris, he definitely no pledge of allegiance in California public schools anymore. And yet took me really. Yeah. And he says, just googled it. And I thought I was wrong. He says, and yeah, it took me a few weeks to learn the Lord's Prayer during my shorts. Didn't Marin Catholic. Huh. I totally just googled that and it said, my Google returned with 47 states still required it. 47 required. Yeah. Yeah. I wouldn't wouldn't have guessed California would be one of the non 47. I thought it was a nice way to start the day. And when you're an elementary two, nemesis enforcer, bra. That Seth Rogan was hall of fame. Good. Hey, thank you, nemesis enforcer. I'm not going to try it again because I just want to rest on my laurels. Like I don't think I can reproduce it. Let's talk AFC and NFC championship Kelly, AFC championship at the beginning of the day. Well, let's be clear. Not the beginning of the day, the first of the two games, three PM Eastern, 12 noon Pacific. Do you

16:47like that staggered start time? Or does that throw you off a little bit? Well, wait a minute. They just we had it this Sunday too. You know, don't they just back up the other game if the first one runs long? They did. Yeah. I'm glad. Pardon me. I'm glad they did this time. Oh, no, they did on Saturday, right? They backed up the Seattle San Francisco because the Buffalo Denver game went along. So yeah, I just I just meant the fact that you're waking on the west coast or on the Pacific time zone, I should say we're used to waking up and watching football here. We have to, you know, don't know now. It's like, okay. Anyway, just thought you clearly are unbothered by it. You're looking at me like I'm crazy. No, no, no, no, it's fine. I know. I completely get it. You're not the first person I've brought her bringing up. I just think I don't know. I think I'm kind of used to it by the time the playoffs get here. It's enjoy the football while we have it. Patriots of Broncos. Patriots are four and a half point favorite here at Circa. I took the Broncos at five and a half Monday morning when we're doing guessing lines. Again, this was the one I thought would be four. And I think it's the most common sentence we've heard. And this is not just for me. This is from everybody that we've talked to, which is people think,

17:50okay, I would get it. Adjustment from Bo-Nix, Jared Sidham, but probably too big to get to five and a half. Now we're seeing this four and a half at Circa. Broncos still have that defense. So the defense hasn't been as good as it was. We should point that out as well to be fair. And Sean Payton's just going to coach up Jared Sidham, Jared Sidham, who is one in three, I believe lifetime as a starter in the NFL has not started since week 18 of the 2023 season. Drake May and the Patriots, Jared Sidham and the Broncos both either, I should say, on the cusp of a Super Bowl. Man, just wild how we haven't seen, we haven't seen these lines move. Since we started talking about them on Monday pretty much, right? This is settled into no man's land. That's kind of where it was opened up. Total's gone up a little bit in this game, but that's about it. I'm going to, I'm going to steal a line from the best lad I heard breaking down this game so far this week. Andy Bolider on deep dive. We're doing the wrong comparison with Jared. Instead of it's not comparing him to both nicks. It's, is he any worse than CJ Stroud?

18:57Because CJ Stroud just went up there and looked really bad two weeks in a row and played against the Patriots last week. And if you can, you know, it's a good point. If you can kind of compare, right? Like we've been doing it all season long. Like you just kind of hinted at we were comparing these Denver and Houston defenses. I don't think it's really fair to put the Denver defense up. They're either, but if you're doing that, then sure you just kind of get quarterback play better than CJ Stroud. And you're in this game. You are, you are in essence replacing the production of CJ Stroud from last. Yes. Yeah. And you're doing it at home. And you're doing it at home. Yeah. With not quite as good of a defense as Houston has though. I thought that was great. I just think five and a half points. I couldn't resist it. I took it. Yeah. I thought that I love the Denver Broncos. By the way, as you know, not that I think they are necessarily going to win, but five and a half points. Sure. Yeah. I threw Patriots in with a money line parlay with the, with Indiana on Monday. So that would be carrying over. I like that side. It's, man, it feels like all playoffs. They'll kill like I'm not there's nothing here this weekend. Either that's like a big

19:59bet for me. The biggest bet I've had in the playoffs so far was that sea ox one last week. But even that I bought off someone once it got to over seven with the 49ers. It's just been a little bit of a wild playoff from bedding wise. The New England Patriots who this year, according to DVOA and Aaron Schatz had the third easiest schedule since 1978. Not just the easiest schedule this year. The third easiest since 1978. And the Broncos who beat the Titans by eight this year. Wanted to crap quarterback who beat the Jets by two, the Giants by one, the, uh, the Raiders by three, the chiefs by three, wait, there's more, the Commodores by one, the Raiders again by seven, the chiefs again with olidokin by seven. I mean, it's just incredible. It's just, do you subscribe to the fact I get all that to say? Do you subscribe to the thought that this is for the right to be the Super Bowl loser? Oh, yeah. I do. Yeah. I mean, I already better Rams look

21:02ahead right over the Patriots. I do. It's not even that though. This is the sadder park. You'll like this is this is the last, this is the last Sunday of real football, right? Cause we get into like two weeks stretch and Super Bowl. And a lot of people go to Super Bowl parties and stuff, right? Like you're not even can't even concentrate your treat or treat the Super Bowl like you do another NFL Sunday, right? This is the last true Sunday. And the last real game of the season is played this Sunday. And it's after this one. It's amazing. Super Bowl of the Santa Clara, like the amount of musical acts that are going on all week, the week before. That's cool. Like sting at the palace of fine arts like all over the all over the Bay area. Well, how far is that drive again from San Francisco with no traffic? It's like 40 minutes, but there's rarely no traffic. So it's usually more than that. So is that what they're building up events kind of in the whole area? Oh, it's all over the past. Yeah. It's a good call. Rams at Seahawks for the Super Bowl title, according to many, Seahawks are two and a half point favorites, minus 120 little extra juice on that totals at 47 and a half. By the way, the total in the AFC championship. AFC championship was 42 and a half. This is the rubber match. Both of their

22:09previous games were super close. Rams won by two. The first time around the Seahawks in that instant classic with the two point conversion that no one will ever forget the controversial one. And then winning it over time by going for two and succeeding. I mean, those two games, that that was a classic, but both games were super close. I don't know how this will be any different. Yeah. Yeah, I've got. So I've got Seattle six to one to win the NFC from a couple months ago. Atle, unless I see a flat three, Gill, I don't think I'm buying off that at all. I do. Sure, I lean a little bit, lean a little bit to the Rams side, but I think this line is exactly, is exactly right. I think it would have been closer to a pickup if we hadn't seen the Rams kind of struggle a little bit the past couple of weeks against bears and panthers. I think two and a half is right. And if we probably hit three, I think we've got a little too far. Shaw McVeigh has got to be more present for the Rams of this game than he was this past week. I don't know what that was. You're not going up against the bears defense in the pit with the panthers. I don't know what that was. And Matthew Stafford has not been sharp last few weeks. Nick Whalen has thoughts on both of these games. That's next on a numbers game

23:14at visa. These sports betting network. Numbers game on the visa. These sports betting network back on the numbers game live from circle resort. You see no downtown Las Vegas, Gill, Alexander Kelly, Midland in the house as well. Nick Whalen joins us now. Nick is at roto wire. Of course, he's a roto wire senior analyst. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen, but substitute that L with the number one. And that's where you'll find him. How are you doing, Nick? Doing great, guys. Doing great. Once again, woke up to like four inches of snow here in Wisconsin. I am envious of the weather that you guys. I'm sure are enjoying out in Vegas right now. But look at Ford, of course, to conference shipy chip weekend. And still thinking, man, the Jacksonville Jaguars misted opportunity. They should be playing this weekend. They should be on their way to the Super Bowl. Yeah. First of all, let me correct your first, Nick. Cause according to Kelly, it is very cold here. It's good in the studio now, though, 72 and a half

24:15degrees. So I just want to get that out of the way. Yeah, it does. I mean, it probably does feel like a missed opportunity for Jacksonville and for Jacksonville fans. I'm sure it does. It could have been anybody's though this year, right? It was just that kind of season where I don't think we've I don't think we're being prison or the moment. I don't think this NFL season was like any other in terms of just not having any clue who is going to ultimately end up, especially from the AFC, right? Yeah. And ironically, we ended up with the one in the to see in the AFC despite saying how wide open it was from from week eight on. And I'm with you. I believe that was the case. And, you know, of course, the the bonix injury kind of throws all of this off and it feels like New England, you know, things are just going to keep breaking that team's way where, you know, Drake made has not played it anywhere close to an MVP level over these last two games. It simply has not mattered. He's fumbled the ball six times. He's lost. I believe three of those. He's throwing a couple of picks. And they still win both of those games by two scores. I think there are a lot of teams, you know, especially you look at a team like Green Bay, you know, where Jordan

25:19love played. The numbers would tell you at least the best of any quarterback on wild card weekend. And they can't find a way to win that game against Chicago. New England, of course, you know, just riding that defense so far through these first two games. And, um, you know, I don't know where you guys stand on the AFC JB chip game. But I will be surprised if this is a walk in the park for the Patriots. I mean, a third straight, really difficult defense. You have to face now. You're going out on the road. You know, a full seven point shift going from bonix to Jared Stadium feels a little rich. And yet, you know, it's a backup quarterback in the AFC JB chip game. So I understand the movement. Oh, I think the Broncos may very well win too when all is said and done. I just want to and I want to go back to the fumbles again. Fumble luck while we on these kinds of shows, right? On betting in betting content. We do discuss fumble luck. They don't ever on mainstream media, right? But even with us discussing it, I just want to reiterate again that while we discuss it, we then all sort of purge it from our brains too, which is the fact that we'll Campbell jumped on both of those fumbles one at the three yard line, one in also in their

26:24own territory towards the end of the second half. That's the game right there, right? Like, if Houston jumps on those on those ball on those fumbles, those are, you know, all legacy altering plays where all of a sudden we're talking about, well, there you go, Patriots. You couldn't do it in the playoffs or thinking the Houston Texans defense. That unit alone is carried this team this far. They're going to carry them farther. Even without CJ Stroud doing anything. In fact, CJ Stroud being a detriment. So it's just it's really, we don't linger on that kind of thing, but really it can be distilled to those two plays. Before we get to the NFC championship, can we just talk about this Buffalo Bills drama for a second? I know you're following this. What is so Terry Pagula, their owner, it has a press conference this morning. And this is this feels largely driven by the fact that Sean McDermott's firing really feels like he was based on the fact that McDermott got a little too, I don't know what the word is for Pagula, which is to say that

27:28McDermott said, the reason we are not getting where we're getting is because of this roster that I've been given. And Pagula didn't take too well to that, did he? He certainly did not. He, this is about his public as you'll ever see, you know, a GM and an ownership group come out and discuss these things, you know, especially what three days after the Bills lose that game. And I thought it was interesting too that he was straight up asked, you know, how much did the result of the Denver game influencer decision to to let go of McDermott? And he's like, yeah, absolutely. That was a big part of it, which, look, I'm a little bit surprised overall guys at the pushback from from Bills fans, from NFL media in general on the McDermott firing. I guess I didn't really realize he was, he was that entrenched in Buffalo. You know, this idea that, you know, he's one of those coaches that if they let him go, you know, every other team would hire him. I guess I didn't really view him in that light, you know, for a team that has had plenty of posties and letdowns and often those games have been situations where the offensive scoring somewhere between 27 and 34 points and they're giving up somewhere

28:30between 28 and 35 points, you know, for a defensive head coach to have that many defensive letdowns in the playoffs. I didn't think there would be this much pushback on the firing, but I think to, to do it after that game where I thought one, Sean McDermott coach really well and got a ton of credit, deservedly for that win over Jacksonville. And then, you know, you have an obvious, if not a little bit unfair scapegoat in Josh Allen turn to the ball over five times in the Denver game, like the timing of it to essentially blame Sean McDermott for how that game went when he didn't really make any notable mistakes. I think that's what's rubbed people the wrong way. Now it seems like Keon Coleman is the target here. As though, as though Keon Coleman working out, you know, would have completely changed the fortunes for the Buffalo Bills. I, it doesn't help that lad Makonky went with the next pick in that draft, but you look at the next two receivers taken it was Jalen Polk and 80 Mitchell, you know, it's not like they, they passed on three Hall of Famers or something to take Keon Coleman. And I, I just, I just wonder if, if the bills realize, like the, the reputational damage that they're doing right now, like you need a head coach, you are right smack dab in the middle of one of the

29:33best quarterbacks in recent NFL histories prime. And you can't afford to take a step back, right? Who was lining up right now to work with that ownership group? Yeah. Yeah, it's not, it's not a great morning. It's not been a good look for them. And by the way, lad Makonky has not been the player. This is the past year that it was the year before. So even he doesn't look as, you know, like they likely missed out on something as great as they might have a year ago. By the way, and I said this earlier, and Keon Coleman is listening to this. I'm right here. I'm right here. I'm still on this roster. I can't believe you're, hey, hey, stop it. Okay, to the NFC championship, I'll ask you what would have asked of Kelly last segment, which is, do you feel like this is the Super Bowl? I do. I do. I said the same thing on our show on Sirius XM yesterday. I feel like the winner of this game and the look ahead lines would imply that as well, where you'd see, you know, the Rams or the Seahawks is three three and a half point favorites over presumably New England, but I'm with you. I don't think that we can just pencil in the Patriots into that Super Bowl game. I think Denver is certainly going to put forth a solid effort at home.

30:38But yeah, I think we've kind of known for most of this season that the, you know, the strength in the NFC was greater than the AFC. I think we trusted those teams. I've been more consistent throughout the regular season. So it certainly feels like the winner of this game will, at the very least, be in the catbird seat to win the Super Bowl. I'm really struggling to figure this game out. I stick into my priors, maybe a little too much on the LA Rams. Like I maintain that this team, if they play their best game, it's better than Seattle's best game. But yeah, as I said on this channel on Monday, I just, I worry about the chances of the Rams playing their best game. You know, that seemed a lot more likely to me, yeah, week eight or week 10 or week 12 than it does right now. I worry about the special teams advantages for the Seattle Seahawks. Not only in the kicking game, but obviously in the return game as well. Like basically, every single special team stat heavily favors Seattle. And we've seen that matter over and over in these closely contested games. So I do think we're going to get a very close game. I'm still deciding whether or not I think it will be low scoring or high scoring because we've seen, you know, both sides of

31:38the pendulum so far during the regular season. But I also think Seattle, as long as Sam Donald can avoid, maybe he can afford one killer mistake. He cannot throw more than two interceptions. And I don't think Seattle can win that game. He's thrown six so far in the two games against the LA Rams. I think it's going to be imperative for the Rams to turn him over because Seattle is one of very few teams that has had consistent success against this Rams defense. And especially in that second game, we saw them get the ground game going. I think this will be a Kenneth Walker spot once again, one early prop that I'll give you, by the way, Kenneth Walker over two and a half receptions. Don't mind the over 22 and a half receiving yards for him. He's got at least three catches in seven of his last nine games. And of course, the vast majority of those came with a full Zach Sharbanay went three for 64, three for 44 in the two previous matchups against the Rams. No Zach Sharbanay and the NSC championship. I'm with you. That's a good way to put it though. The Rams A game is probably better than the Seahawks A game. It's just that we don't know if it's reliable, that we'll see it. And I will say it one more time and Wilson, you know, Houston was not

32:39able to capitalize on the fumbles at bad fumble luck. Just seemed like they had them both times. They couldn't they couldn't they didn't end up with it. The Rams were able to overcome just a brain dead performance by Sean McVeigh. Like I don't know what he was doing for most of that game. So he's got a he's really got to get better with being present for this one. It's a great call on special teams too, Nick. Like there's a huge gap here. That's right. DVOA has both the offense and defense very similar, but a massive gap in special teams, massive gap in favor of the Seahawks. I mean, like anything you look at, there's a top 10 universe of bottom 10 unit. And like Sean McVeigh has been a little cavalier with it in the past two of like, and I've kind of respected this about it, where it's like, yeah, offense matters the most that defense that special teams like whatever. Like, yeah, might come back to bite in the ass. Uh, Nick, last 30 seconds, any NBA tonight for me. Yeah, I'll give you a couple props. I'm looking at here. Jalen Johnson over one and a half threes going up against Memphis. They're giving up about 41 three point attempts per game. Johnson not shooting a great overlay, but still taking six or seven threes on most nights. He has to be the

33:44engine of that offense. Looking at the over 10 and a half rebounds for Yannis tonight going up against OKC rivalry renewed, apparently, between these two teams. We just need the bucks to keep this game close enough that Yannis plays enough minutes. OKC has been arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA with no Isaiah Hardstein. So I think this is a good spot for Yannis. And then maybe firing on Jordan pool of all people over 11 and a half points tonight sees a massive usage boost with no Zion Williamson. And he was added to the injury reports with an illness earlier this morning. Thank you, Nick.

34:45I know I've been like sort of flippantly saying this thing about Keon Coleman a couple of times already on the show with Terry Pagula. You know, Chris, the owner of an NFL team openly arguing about who drafted, who made the mistake of drafting a player who is currently on your team. Keon Coleman. And I'm like, if you're Keon Coleman and you're listening to this, you got to be like, what? I'm right. Keon Coleman has has to have played his last game in Buffalo. I would think so. You can't come back from this. What are you doing? I'm just picturing him sitting there like or teammates texting him to like, don't listen to this. Like just keep your head down, Keon or his mom or you're just like, this is awkward. Let me not text. Hey, baby. Don't don't listen to that press conference. It's rough. Oh my God. They're like the whole idea, right? Yes, the whole idea of like, yes, people like me and kill, but I'll, you know, say, especially me is saying, hey, you got to get this guy more

35:47weapons, right? Offensive side of the ball, defensive side of the ball. I don't know how, obviously we've been on the air. I don't know how this whole conversation press conference is going. But if that is somehow translated to, well, these are the weapons we tried to get them. And then yeah, that's the single problem that we disagreed on, whether this was going to help us or not, it's just wild. This under the context of Shaw McDermott reportedly upset Terry Pagula by saying, it's my roster. That's the problem. That's why we didn't advance further in the playoffs. And Terry Pagula didn't take too kind to that back the GM. And that's the end of that wasn't him. Oh, Jay, believe me, the coaching staff made them draft him. That's a great and great points by Nick too. Right. Well, they needed a wide receipt. They're obviously going wide receiver in that draft. Who were the other guys that were going to land on it was not going to be looking good regardless. Not, not great. Not great. Kevin Ryan, Gilly, you just mentioned the production of CJ Stroud. What production? Yeah. No, no, that's exactly what I meant. Yeah. That's the point. That's the point of the whole thing. You mean anything? I mean, bar that Jared Stidham, according to, again, Andy Molotor,

36:48shout out to Andy Molotor and the deep dive presents, the bar that Jared Stidham has to clear at that position is the CJ Stroud of last week bar, which isn't really a high bar. By the way, we do this with baseball, right? And every sport when we talk about preseason stuff, we're like, you know, oh, everybody's talking about how they lost this second basement. Yeah, well, the new second basement just has to, has to repeat that particular player's production at second base from previous year. I famously do this with case kingdom when the Vikings signed Kirk cousins the first time. I'm like, everybody thinks this is such an upgrade. You're, you're having to replace case kingdoms 2017 stats, which were awesome. Good luck to you. You also wanted to say, so Nick, speaking of Nick, you wanted to say something about the honest thing. Let's try. I mean, let's go. Like, it's driving. I mean, we've, we've, we've been hearing it for months, years now, but it's the, like, again, honest, I think once out of Milwaukee, but he doesn't want to make anybody upset. So he's trying to be doing the whole,

37:49like, get me out of here, but I never asked to be out of here trying to get out of there without making anybody mad. And I just don't think he understands, like, that's not, it gets what a star leaves a team, especially in a market like Milwaukee, people are going to be upset. They're going to be upset for a long time rip off the bandaid, bro. It's way worse when you're dragging this on for months and months and months. That's excellent analysis of the situation, by the way, because I think you, you, you nailed exactly what he's trying to do. Yeah. It's what he's trying to do. And he got people like, why are Tom check back there right now? Who I love to death? Who are these bucks fans? Yeah. They're like, they're, they're, I mean, their whole hopes are with Yannis for, to give this team anything. Nick says he's done with them. It's Nick says he's done them good for me. And he's a, because it's, yeah, you got him, you got to move on. They, they got to start rebuilding this. I don't think it's good for Yannis or the Milwaukee bucks at this point. So in the Kelly Bidlin sports man crush scale, where I brought this up, where James Winston Reigns Supreme, James and Josh out, Josh out of style. He's firmly in there. What happens to

38:49Yannis? Yannis was always right there. He was always right there. And Yannis is, the way he's been talking about this whole trade situation. He is moving his way out kill. And recently, recently, if anybody's keeping track of this, because I had to write this down, on the outside looking in now from before, I, I would say a few years ago, Anthony Richardson, now, and live up to it, buddy, you're on the outside looking at just because he's a band hit him in the eye. You're penalizing him for that. You couldn't beat out Daniel Jones, you know, that was a problem. And then Jones had a pretty good season. He had a pretty good season. Zion Williamson. He also on that list outside looking in can't stay healthy. I can't get excited about a guy can't stay healthy, but oh, the way lost, but oh, the way lost. And back questionable tonight, I do like the under in that game, get to that later. Okay. Let's talk a few more Australian open props, because we did this yesterday. By the way, the Australian open yesterday, there were, I only had like I went from like eight picks the first two days. Yes, it only had three. And the reason for that was, and by the way, thank goodness, I only had three,

39:49and then I'm going, oh, and two. One was a withdrawal, which doesn't quite make up for that five to three Priscilla Han thing where we're a game away the other day or the other girl quit. I was having that same feeling last night. I think God, I eaked out those two winners in that Houston San Antonio game, because the other two bets I had were back. Well, I only had two. I went to the one was on the lady side where I had a big underdog, but I didn't take her on the money line. It took her plus six. And the first set was seven five. And then she collapsed in the second set. And then I lost the one men's match. It was a dog that got to the finish, but my point in all this is, there were 16 men's matches. The reason you're wondering, well, why were there only so few picks yesterday? It was corroborated by the results. 16 men's tennis matches. 16 favorites win. Many of them were massive favorites, by the way. So there just wasn't it was, I guess that's a long way of saying, I'm almost, if you're going to go into, that's kind of a good way to do it, right? Where it's like, okay, at least I saw the playing field correctly. 16 to know, which, which comes on the heels, by the way, and I want to give the credit for this, because

40:52Joe Pita was the first one to text me this yesterday. This comes on the heels of a piece that was done by, boy, I want to get that. I want to get the proper credit, but it was a piece done by someone who, who accurately talked about like the history of the Australian open. Tennis Better Nishi, which is a tribute to Okinawa Shikori, Japanese tennis player that was a pro for many, many years. Tennis Better Nishi on Twitter, who did a whole deep dive on the Australian open for years and years and years and how your return and investment on favorites is short plus money. But if you just bet dogs in the Australian open on the men's side, you would have hemorrhaged money all these years. It goes back about 15 years, I think. Now, a couple of things about the article and I think you did a great job. Let me just give them a shout out. But one, yeah, when there's best of fives, when you're talking about slams, that's going to happen because best of fives, no matter the slam, the ability for an underdog

41:52is on the men's side because women don't play best of fives. The ability for an underdog on the men's side to manifest much less than in random tournaments. Just like a playoff series that we talk about a hundred percent. Yep. Best of threes, you're going to get more dogs to manifest, best of fives. It's just ain't going to work out. But I can think you can say that about every men's grand slam. And the other thing it doesn't take into account, you didn't have anything on the WTA. So, but I thought it was an interesting article and then right on the heels of it, 16 and 0 on favorite gestures. So good job by him. Here's what I would like to see the WTA number. So on that, right? Yeah, I don't think it's going to be the same because it would be different, be much different, tournament winner without dropping a set at this Australian open. I didn't really know how to do the math on this necessarily without doing like a historical deep dive on this. But if you wanted to bet something like this, because Ega has won a French opens without dropping a set, for instance, that was going to be my first question. Oh, you have the top two done that. Hasabalank had done that. Ega has done it on clay. I don't think I don't think sabalank has done it on hardcore. I could be wrong. She's won four slams. I don't think she has done it in any of them, but I could be wrong. By the way, best of three

42:56and best of five, also why I didn't, I didn't type up the men's odds for this. Oh, like it's not doable, right? Yeah, unless you're one of the greats, right? sabalank is 10 to one, by the way, to win this tournament without dropping a set, Ega's 30 to one. Reboccan on cocoa, both 40 to one. Let me just say this, that's not going to happen. Sabalank is the only one with a chance to make this happen. The others, the others are two. Their draw is too tough for that to even be a thought. This one, I can quantify for you a math wise. So these are a couple of other props that were up here, and I actually did the math on these if we could flip to those. So these are a couple or few tennis players versus the field. So the first one in the women's size, the big three versus the field, they define the big three here as sabalank, a shfion tech and golf minus 155 versus the field at plus 110, based on current draft King's numbers, current draft King's numbers. Right now, the sabalank a shfion tech golf, big three should be minus 160. So that is actually

44:04incremental value on sabalank a shfion tech and golf. Also big two versus the field sabalank and shfion tech listed at minus 105 at draft King's versus the field. That actually has a bit of value as well because that should be priced at minus 111. So you're getting the best of it there as well. On the other hand, next gen versus the field, which they define as Coco, Mira, Andrava, and Vicki Mboko at four to one, you're actually getting the worst of that one. Yeah, that should be about plus four 20, the field. Actually, if you if you have the onions to lay minus 800, that would actually be the incremental value there. So just from a math perspective, just to give you an idea how those are a little off, but the big good big three and big two has a little value. The field in the next gen one is I mean, like the sabalank is shfion tech one, like that could be as long as there's a little value on it, right? That could be an easy one. Bet it and forget it. Bet it and forget it. I personally am I betting it, but you can bet it and forget it.

45:05Coming back with war and sharpened Todd Wishing have next.