A Numbers Game | January 2, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00The numbers told the story of Alex now swam those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with kill I've examined her gone visa. Good Friday morning. Tune as a numbers game of these in these sports betting that we're Visa.com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV. And of course, series X of channel 158 is kill Alexander that right there's my little buddy Kelly Biddley everybody on a Friday morning a football Friday. How you doing man? Do well. Do well. Go how we doing? Do very well. What a day of college football yesterday. My goodness. We are we're down to the final four semis or set. We'll get in all of that here momentarily on the show today. Steve Fessig makes us a try-out for return to the show after an absence last week. He was sick last week. He will be back. But in a different hour. Right. He's on next hour. He needed an early call this morning. So. Fess on next hour with us for all his thoughts on the college football semis and more everything that's on his mind.

1:01JVT will join a Zach Cohen who was not with us yesterday. We'll join us talk NBA and NFL week 18. JVT will talk. JVT will be the guy who gets the first crack at the semifinal numbers. For us see what his thoughts are on Indiana Oregon. Oh, missing my Emma. Oh boy. Looking forward to it. Hey little tennis on the show today as well. Try a little tennis prop talk. I like it. Let's go tennis. We're back. Not quite yet. But we're almost there. I don't do United Cup. Oh, yeah. See I saw someone playing United Cup has started by as wins. Is that is that the feels? Is that the like the official start? Is the official start this United Cup? It's the beginning. It's the beginning of the season. Yeah. The real, the real, you know, the break WTA ATP tournament start for reals next week. Looking forward to that. And we'll do every NFL game week 18. We'll do it all. Can we begin a reverse order? Can we talk about the Ole Miss Georgia game first? Yeah, it's probably a good idea. Just because the other two were more. Yeah, the most game of the day and not even close. Yeah. I'm going to and to my ATS in the in the pre flop in the semis. I did not get this one.

2:08I had Georgia, which I think so many people did. And in the end, what what a football game. We got to talk about Kirby smart. First of all, Ole Miss gets on the board first with two Lucas Carnaro field goes one from 55, one from 56 ice man. That was good. Every time there's a great college player. No, I was maybe coming. I was like, you know, who'd look good and burgundy and gold. This Lucas Carnaro character would look awesome. Six, nothing Ole Miss early, but then Georgia would come back with that seven place, 75 yard drive. Gunner stocked it in from 12 out. Seven to six. Georgia early third early second quarter. Mississippi response. Eight place, 75 yards and 304. Trinidad, Shameless. Just phenomenal in this ball game. 30 for 46 for 362 and two touchdowns. That good enough for you? Yeah. This one was to a 47-year-old tighted Lucas, Lucas from a three-out. Check out Lucas, by the way. It's like they decided to give their old strength coach a go at it. Three out. Two point try fails. 12 to seven Ole Miss.

3:1210-33 left in the second quarter. Then Georgia responds immediately. 12 plays 75 yards. Stocked it in from 11, 14 to 12. Dogs with 405 left in the second quarter. That was after three third down conversions on that drive. The second of which was a third and 13 at their own 35. We're stocked and went to Zachariah Branch for 15 where Branch looked, we're stocked and looked doomed, or excuse me, Branch looked doomed for a loss, but he ducked the defender and somehow got to the sticks. And then the third and 12 of the Ole Miss 27 stocked and side-armed it to cash Jones for 25 down to the one. Just before he got trucked, Stocked and just got destroyed on that play. It was just a great play by him. Ole Miss, second and fourth, they're Ole 42. Here's where Georgia took a two-score lead. Remember that 14 to 12 now. Kiwan Lacey for four fumbles, scooped score from Dailant Everett, 46 yards to Bader, 21 to 12. Georgia, 234 left in the second quarter. Ole Miss just completely botched. First of all, three and out after a huge drop by Dayquan right on the second last drive of the half.

4:14And then on the last drive of the half, they just completely botched the clock. Don't have any timeouts left. Thought they could spike it. Then realized, no, no, it's four down. We got to do the fire drill. Didn't work. Disaster, yeah. Disaster, 21, 12, Georgia at the half. And if you're a Georgia backer, I guess you were okay right now. You're like, okay, well, I'm nine, but that shouldn't feel that great, I guess. Ole Miss, first time in the half of the ball, second half, fourth and what, they're a 49 Lacey stuff by Rachon Dinkins. Georgia then gets a Peyton Woodring 55-yard Ville Goldtry short. Usually he's, if not a short thing, you would expect more on that one. Still, 21, 12, but then Ole Miss, seven play 63 yards, fourth and three at the Georgia 44. Chambles to Harrison Walsh for 36, 22 of which was Yak, two plays later. Lacey and from 7, 29 to 21 to 19, Georgia, 451 left third quarter. Then Georgia with a three and out, but a fake punt from their own 30.

5:14Landon rolled down to Lawson Lucky for 16, two plays later, stocked in the Colby Young for 31, another amazing play by Stockton, where he brings in the defender only to hit his receiver before getting destroyed. It was just taking hits. That led to a Woodring 37-yard Ville. 24 and 19 dogs with the 30 second left in the third quarter. Then Ole Miss with an insane third and seven conversion for their own 28 from Chambles. Scramly for his life gets it to Lacey for seven. And Wallis third 44 to the Georgia 22 plays later. Lacey and from 5, 25, 24. This time the two point try is good to Wallis 27, 24 Ole Miss with 11, 29 left. And then, well, we got to talk about Kirby smart. Georgia, three and out. They run the offensive unit back out after the punt team had lined up, fourth and two at their own 33. Again, we're talking about like, you know, 11 minutes left in the ball game, down three.

6:14Were you shocked that they snapped this ball, that they actually went for? Of course. Stockton sacked. Ole Miss set up at the Georgia 23, two plays Chambles to Wallis from 14 out 34, 24 Ole Miss 902 left. Still plenty of time down two scores now for Georgia. Man did this get. Did things change in this one? Georgia takes one minute and 59 seconds off the clock to go six plays 75 yards. We've seen Gunner Stockton do this so many times. Stockton to branch from 18 out 34, 31 Ole Miss with 703 left. All Georgia needed to do it. He just figured out a way to get Ole Miss off the field for God's sakes. And you know what they figured out? They figured out that if the ref did not call a egregious face mask, that's how you get them off the field. And that's what happened. Ole Miss a three and out after the officials completely missing egregious face mask on second down. Oh, so bad. Oh, so bad. There was a few terribly missed calls in this. But that was the worst of the worst. How does everybody miss that? So Georgia gets the ball back down three, fourth and nine at their own 48.

7:15This is it. Stockton to branch for 17 to the Ole Miss 36. A hole then sets them back. Two plays later, second and 20 at the Mississippi 46. Stockton to branch for 11 on a wide receiving screen. Then with two minutes left, third and nine, a PI on a, competing at Gushiken of Ole Miss. Georgia set up at the 20. Ole Miss has two time outs. Remember, field going to tie, touchdown, puts the dogs ahead. Two plays later. Another flag. This time I'll hold on Gushiken. Georgia set up at the Ole Miss 8. Ole Miss 8. Stockton for five. Gets to the three yard line. Ole Miss calls their second time out with 108 left. Then Chauncey bones loses three. And now Ole Miss uses their last time out with 104 left on the clock. Remember, it's third and goal now at the six. What do you do if you're Georgia, right? This is the moment where again Kirby Smart already did the terrible four down call in their own territory that eventually puts up Ole Miss up 10.

8:19With 104 left, Ole Miss has no way to stop the clock. Remember, you cannot stop Chauncey without the refs missing face mess, right? You got to figure out a way. Ideally, obviously, it's a touchdown. But if you are going to tie this game, you got to figure out a way to milk the clock. A wide receiver screen perhaps, like a short pass that even if you get tackled, then the clock moves because you're still in balance. Instead, they go to the end zone incomplete. They get the wood ring 24 yard field goal 34, 34, about 56 seconds left on the clock. Way too much time for Trinidad, Chameless on this day. Ole Miss from their own 25, five yard run. Clock moving, then incomplete, when Zion Branch crunches, Katelyn Lee, but third and five perfect pass from Chameless to Dijon's dribbling for 40, field goal range. By the way, then he almost throws a pick on the next pass, incomplete, incomplete, nine seconds left. Carnaro 47 yard, field goal. Perfect. Ole Miss on their way. Oh, one more thing. Pitchy, pitchy, woo, woo, results in a safety.

9:23And I know at least one person will Hill who had plus three live on Georgia. God. What do you even say to him at that point? It's the ball hits the pylon on a terrible lateral attempt. 39, 34 Ole Miss on their way to take on Miami in one of the two national semis. It's going to be Indiana and Oregon and the other, which we'll talk about. But that performance yesterday from Ole Miss, I think, when I think now I'm like, okay, of these four teams, how many think can legit win the national championship? My answer is three of the four. I just don't buy into Oregon. I know I'm, I differ from many in that regard. But I think the way that it's, can Ole Miss, is this what's going to happen? Is Ole Miss going to win it all with Lane Kevin's departure? Is that what this is going to be all about? I mean, I would, you know, ask what I'm rooting for. Give me the chaos. I love the chaos in college football. Coach Dips, they still go on to win the national championship. What are we doing here anymore if that's the case?

10:27If I did not have the Indiana 10-to-1 ticket to win it all, I'd probably feel the same way. I'd probably feel the same way. Good, man. Like you said, I mean, that is, I think one of the better, one of the better games I've seen out, Chambles all year from the games that I've caught. I thought he was amazing. The Georgia, the Georgia play call stuff though, was a disaster. Was a disaster. Did you catch smart after the game too, talking about that fourth and fourth now? No, what do you say? So the plan was, because there was an injury on Ole Miss, that's why they ran out the offense. And the whole plan was just to try to draw them off sides, and then they were going to take a delay of game and punt them all. And that the ball was snapped. So it wasn't supposed to be snapped? It wasn't supposed to be snapped. So one screw up, but like you're that far deep in your own territory, you're willing to take a delay of game penalty to punt? Kane's three point favorites against Ole Miss on Thursday night. Fiesta ball. Indiana, four point favorites. Peach Bowl, following night, Friday night, January night. Four point favorites against Zord.

11:29C-A Miami, two and a half at Fendool Boyd. Otherwise, three is pretty much everywhere. I think I like the Kane's. I think I like that matchup with that defense. And I like Indiana, of course, once again, all about the who. Wes Reynolds, what a trip. Yeah, what a trip he took. We'll talk about those two games on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now, so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit. With Visa and Pro. A numbers game on Visa, these sports betting network. Check out the sharp plays dot com unmatched transparency with records update daily.

12:31AI betting analysis, real time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for more on the screen. Sharp plays dot com. Check it out. Let's get Alex in there. Kelly Billy is here as well. Are you okay? You alright? Yeah, I'm good. Okay, I'm just curious. Sorry. Did you just ask you a question off earlier? Completely ignored. Oh, it was a question. No, no, no, it's fine, fine. The lane kiffin bonus stuff. Are you aware of this before the game? Is that what you asked me? Yeah. No, I wasn't aware. I'm familiar with the detail. But not I wasn't concerned enough to like delve in. Okay, well, I didn't know the detail of this is LSU covering this. It's LSU covering the incentives. And this was part of the contract negotiation with them. Is that the incentives he had left in his Ole Miss contract? Right. If they got past this around, he got $500,000. Yeah, basically every step of the way he gets an extra, an extra piece of cash. So I guess it's falling on LSU. I didn't realize that. Should he get a ring if they win it all? Should he be allowed?

13:31No, maybe that's in there. Skull on Twitter. Happy New Year's Fellows. Do you think kiffin considered hedging is $500,000? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know much gamble he has in them. Draco May. Ah, let's see here. Indiana plus 140 and Savillank and Ega to win the Australian Open seems like a great way to get a nice number. Oh, I see a little parlay. Scott Barbrek, oh boy. He goes the definition of a bad beat. Three team, ten pointies, Keynes and Hoosiers already home. Just need Georgia to cover three and a half. This one's stings. Brutal. I'm a pitchy-pitchy-woo. Yeah. Copyright, Van Pelt. JD and Florida, lane kiffin already looking forward to his next dream job at Bama after the coaching mouth practice by Dubor. By Dubor on the fourth and one from his own 35 and a three to nothing game. Oh, there was worse from Dubor. Let's get to that. Let's go to the first one. Let's go to the start of the day. The Texas Tech Oregon game. We had a... Would you say that was one way traffic on Texas Tech? Oh, yeah, pretty much. I mean, no, JVT was on Oregon, but...

14:32Texas Tech was on Oregon. Yeah, wait a second. So we had a cup. Okay, so not one way traffic. But uh... Texas Tech. Texas Tech was the war of a two cool for school. I was on Texas Tech in the end too. Yeah, me too. Three to nothing Oregon. This one won't take long. Three to nothing Oregon. It should have been blown out by halftime. Right. Yeah, yeah. It should have been 23 nothing by halftime. Yes. Oregon, that was the final score. Oregon, fourth and two at the 50 more to Keny's... Keny's the D for four, but fourth and one at the Texas Tech 23. Jordan Davidson goes right hit for a two-yard loss. Texas Tech. Couple drives later. Second play. Second and seventh are on 25. Baron Morton. Pick by Brandon Fitty Jr. What was Baron Morton doing yesterday? Oregon set up at the Texas Tech 33. They go backwards. They punt. Jesus Christ. They're going their own way. That's my dad would say. Texas Tech then... Uh... Jacobi... Uh... 50 yard run sets up stone herrington. 54 yard field goal tried no good. Still three to nothing. Oregon then converts a fourth and three at their own 43. Then fourth and three at the Texas Tech 39.

15:32But fourth and goal the two more roles right incomplete. Remember we were here for that one after the show. It's like there's a play call. Let's cut off half the field. Bunch up all the defenders in one place and see if we can score this way. Okay. Texas Tech first at their own 26. Cameron Dickie Fumbles recovered by Brandon Fitty Jr. Oregon set up at the Texas Tech 29. Stuffed on third and one of the 20. Finally Dan Landings like, you know what? Maybe we should just kick a field. We'll go up six to nothing. And he does. Sappington. Your boy Atticus Sappington. Atticus Sappington. What do you bet at all your Atticus? Kelly loves that guy. Just be not paying attention. Oregon next drive from their own 22. A 37 seconds left. They get to the Texas Tech 36. With 21 seconds left. We're going to kick another field. Nope. Step through the legs. Set some back. Six to nothing at the half. Oregon should have been up way more. Third quarter. Oregon. Fourth and two. The Texas Tech 33. More for one. Sadeek wide opening. Misses him. Doesn't see him. Then Texas Tech finally this game gets a little comfortable for Oregon.

16:32Third play. Third and 11th. One. Morton sack by Mateo. Uh, Ouyangale. Fumbles recover by Ouyangale. Uh, Ouyangale. Why can't I do that? I used to be able to do that. Oregon set up the Texas Tech 6. Dave sent in from six. 13 to nothing. Ducks. Then Texas Tech from the road. Eight fourth and one. If the Oregon 34. Jacobi Williams won. You are lost. Oregon fourth and two. The Texas Tech 46. More picked by Ben Roberts. It's like it could have been. It's still 16 to nothing. They couldn't. It was just ridiculous. I don't know. Oregon played like Oregon 123 to nothing. Should they be happy about themselves? I don't know. Texas Tech set up at their own 45. Third and goal. The Oregon nine. Morton picked in the end zone by Brandon. Vity Jr. Then Oregon with a three and out. But Texas Tech jumps off. Sides on the punt. Extends the drive. They get a feelable from Sappington. They get a late touchdown. 23 nothing. Ducks. Texas Tech's defense. They were there. It was supposed to do. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Yeah.

17:32I have him yesterday. I'm with the Oregon, though, right. It's it. It's bizarre to say that after a 23 to nothing. Shut out with. Yeah. But like this should have been way or so many missed opportunities by them. And then Alabama Indiana. For those of us who have Indiana tickets to win it all. It was nothing about this game that makes us feel bad. Yeah, Indiana destroys Alabama 38 to three destroys them. Uh, three to nothing. Who's your second quarter? Alabama three and out, but instead they decide to go for it. Fourth and one at their own 34 Daniel Hill, the Jeremy Bernard for no gain. Stunna by Isaiah Jones. Indiana after a whole Roman. Hempi for 21, three plays later. Third native to Alabama 21. Mendoza to Charlie Becker. Great catch. Touchdown. Who's your 10 to nothing 1049 left in the second quarter? By the way, Fernando Mendoza for all of you thinks he shouldn't have won the Heisman. He's like, yeah, watch this. Then later, Alabama 37 at the 049 Simpson for nine hit with fumbles recovered by Isaiah Jones.

18:33Indiana, procedure to go 11 plays 58 yards and 252 from their own 42 key play. Mendoza, seven yard rush on a third and three at the 049 eight plays later. Mendoza to Omar Cooper Jr. from one out 17 to nothing. Indiana at the half and Kurt Signetti's got that expression on his face. Like this anything could still happen. We must kill first possession for Indiana in the second half. 10 play 79 yards, 540 Mendoza to a ligest Sirot from 24 out 24 and nothing. Hoosiers. Then Alabama Austin Mackin. What are we doing 28 yard field low to cut it to 24 to three? What was that? That is the Kaelin DeBoard part that I have the most brought me to that was. I, I, I stopped paying attention mainly to the game after that. I was like, you just wave, you waved to the white flag like you, you're just like, you wave the white flag. You're like, it means more than me not to get shut out than to actually try to win. Right. Yeah. I did the immediate like, oh, when you get, you know, when you get the opportunity to go to cut a three score game to a three score game and take it every 10.

19:34That's it. Next two times Indiana had the ball six play 75 yards. Kaelin black in from 25. Next time they had a ball Roman. Hanby in from 1838 to three Hoosiers. We have to, can we just take a moment to appreciate what this is, what this is. What we're watching here with India, incredible. Indiana has the most losses in college football history. They're, they're basically in the big 10. They were a participation team, right in football, right? Basketball school, they're basically a participation team. This is Vanderbilt in the SEC, right? 2022, I think there were two in seven in the big 10 2023. They were one in eight. And in comes this dude from James Madison. In Kurtz dignity. And this is just the difference in two years, ladies and gentlemen. This team is two football games away from not only winning the national championship, but doing it as the first ever 16 and 0.

20:37And there is nothing about them. At this moment, it's the reason I made the bet when they beat Organ the first time. My, my entire comment after that game was, I think this team can beat anybody in the country and they continue to do so. And here we have the rematch against Dan landing and the ducks. On one side of the bracket, Ole Miss Miami on the other, I like both of the favorites, man. I really do. I like both the Hoosiers and the Kings. By the way, the other thing that was going around yesterday and I, this is one of these pet peeves of mine with sports betting. So the college football, the 12 team format began last year, all four teams with a buy lost, right? And then right out of the gates yesterday, well, excuse me. And then we had obviously the Friday night game. So 0 and 5 right on the buys over the two years. And then out of the gate yesterday, Texas Tech got beat. Yeah, Texas Tech gets beat by Organ. So it was 0 and 6 on this.

21:37And I have my buddy in DC race like, oh, man, I don't know. We dig Indiana that that it's really a thing that it's like it's six games. It's still a small sample size. Like people read into, and I don't know, it's one in seven now. People read into that stuff as if it's meaningful. Maybe it will be, maybe it will prove to be as time goes on. Rust versus rest kind of thing. But the fact that people immediately like think it's like engraved in stone as a thing, it's like, come on. Yeah, slam dunk lock for your bird's ignities. Like watch this. The couple more notes from that game. Did you catch the Alabama? They're worst hasn't been beaten by at least 35 points in any game. Since 1998 source, bowl loss, any game. And then the worst ball loss up the worst postseason loss for a program that's played in over 101 years, 80 bowl or playoff games. Who's winning it all right now? Who's winning it all?

22:39Hard for me not saying Indiana after that yesterday. I'm going to take this a step further. We've been saying this for what two months now, you bring it up every time I bring up the number one pick odds, who Mendoza looked apart yesterday? He did, but here's the thing. And the others did not. The one thing that I am comfortable in saying I have no idea about is what an NFL team will convince themselves up between now and the draft. Of course, I'm just saying as far as quarterback play, if it's Dante more number one, I wouldn't be so far. I'm like, they'll, they'll, all it takes is one team to convince themselves or whatever. So that I know, no, but yes, you are absolutely correct about the assessment. JVT first crack at the semi's coming up. Numbers game on FISA, these sports betting network. Hey, Kelly, I know that you are aware that reaching people is easy. You're a good reacher of people. Yes, bring people together. Yeah, but do you know how to reach the right people? That's the question. That's everything.

23:40He says, mission media helps your brand do exactly that. They're cross platform strategies, hit fans, wherever they're watching or listening podcasts, connected TV, streaming digital, all of it. And because mission media is the exclusive advertising partner for Veson, you get direct access to one of the most loyal, engaged and bet ready sports audiences in the country. These are fans who respond, engage and convert. If you want your message in front of people who actually take action, mission media makes it happen. Visit Veson.com slash advertise or email us at advertising at Veson.com. Skill Alexander, that's Kelly Bidlin right there. Everybody my little buddy losing weight. But we're not going to talk about that anymore because he's got his, his got his goal and maybe I shouldn't bring it up anymore. Yeah, okay, there we go. Jonathan Von Tobel joins us now, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the progressive guest line, you can follow him on Twitter at me, JVT, and along with story bond, a Tony who was on the sidelines yesterday in Miami. He is, of course, co-host of money moves, which can be heard here every Monday through Friday and an hour after we go off the air. So it's us. It's prop points and then it's money moves with Stormy and JVT.

24:41Good morning to you, sir. How you doing? I'm pretty good. You know, I would agree that Kelly is good at reaching, but he reached too far the other day. And I had to talk to HR about it. I think he's got to calm down the way he can reach out to people. Hey, it was just a reach, man. There's no touching. It's like when they, when they call that in football, they're illegal touching. I was like, you should, that's really a metaphor for what you should not do that in anything in life. All right, John, I'm going to get you get the first crack at, uh, at the, the semi-final lines in college football before, before you get to the actual lines. What was the biggest thing you took away from yesterday's trio of games? So it's, this is one of those where, um, this is not, I was right. But I, I had voiced my concern. I told Kelly about this yesterday when we were on the air together. Cause he joined me for a couple of minutes. The whole time that Georgia Ole Miss line was just hanging out there. You would talk to people and it was like, Oh, Georgia's going to roll. Georgia's going to move on. Georgia, this, there was Ole Miss. You talked to folks, Hey, what's one of these teams that can't win the national title? It's Ole Miss.

25:42There was such an assumption that Georgia was going to win this game and move on with no problems. And yet the line wouldn't budge. There was no real support for it. And then sure enough, we see what happens there yesterday. And I think one of the things that stuck out and I brought this up yesterday, when it came to like the flaws of Georgia when breaking down this game. Very quietly, they had gotten better, Gil, but they were also a team that coming into this was pretty average in a lot of key categories. They were 74th and expected points added per pass, a success right through the air. They were middle of the pack. They were a team that had kind of shown some flaws in that regard. And then sure enough, Chambers comes in their 360 yards and two touchdowns. So it was kind of a shocking, but not shocking result at the same time, given the way that game went down. And it was one of those where we were kind of all just staring at it and wondering what was going on. And sure enough, the confidence of many, it turned out to be incorrect. And I thought that was a pretty surprising result yesterday. Yeah. If I said to you, no, okay, four teams left. How many do you legit feel can we, do you feel like all can legit win the title? Or can you not say that?

26:44I mean, I think you have to at this point, don't you? I mean, two of the teams, I don't want to say we have kind of pushed aside, but Miami was a nine and a half point dog closed eight eight against Ohio State. We all kind of thought that all missed wasn't really going to do anything. And they've done it in two different ways here against a lowly opponent and then upsetting Georgia the way that they have organ. I think we you and I and Kelly and a lot of us there in the studio watched a good chunk of that organ game. They're pretty flawed off. It's a team, but good enough on defense. I don't see why any of them wouldn't be able to win this. Now, I do think the odds are right. I think at the end is clearly at this point right now, the best team in the field. But I do think I would not be shocked if any of these four teams wanted at this point right now. Indiana plus one thirty five to win at all organ and Miami, both three to one and Ole Miss the long shot at plus five fifty per draft. Kings to win the national title. Let's get to the semi final games Thursday night. Fiesta bowl Miami and Ole Miss. The canes are three point favorites. The totals fifty two. What are your thoughts? To me, it's it's going to be Miami here. And we'll see there's a couple of like national books that have shipped slip to that two and a half.

27:47Like to a really juice two and a half. So if it gets there for sure, but look, Miami at all the concerns we've had here, there are there lines of scrimmage have been I think very, very good. Obviously, this past rush is absolutely tremendous. It was all over Julian saying putting them under duress. And then very quietly through the two games, guys, like they've run the ball effectively. They ran the ball well against Texas A&M. They ran the ball pretty well against Ohio State as well. They were pretty middle of the pack in terms of their efficiency and running the football. But that's gotten better. And as we were discussing yesterday too in that studio, but Carson back, he's doing what he needs to do. Those completions for first downs, running the ball, doing what is necessary for this team. This was a group that I've got a national title ticket on at 16 to one. And there's a reason that was very early in the year, because I thought they were good enough from the lines of scrimmage to get this done. We should also give him credit. Ole Miss receivers are very good. And I think these big body DBs for Miami are going to be able to match up well. I think they're going to be able to move on here. So I'll hold out see if this gets under three like one national shop did, but either way, I think three is playable there for Miami against Ole Miss. I am with you on that one.

28:47Next night, Peach Bowl Friday night. Who's yours? Four point favorites against the Ducks. Total's 47 and a half. I think Oregon's looked really disjointed, despite the fact that they have these two wins. I mean, you go back to the JMU game. They give up over 500 total yards to James Madison. You know, obviously never really in danger of losing the game, but showing some sort of flaws there. And then yesterday against Texas Tech, I think you give Texas Tech some credit. Their defensive line was great. A lot of bad passes at the line of the scrimmage. Also, a lot of bad sacks taken by Dante Moore. A lot of really quizzical play calls on key fourth downs that they weren't able to take advantage. Texas Tech did nothing offensively in that entire game. And yet they kept Oregon, or excuse me, Oregon kept them in it with their inability to execute on off into many different facets. I think that this is an Oregon team that when you compare them to Indiana, you go back to the first time they played six sacks. Disguising coverage is getting after Dante Moore. So some of the ability of Texas Tech to do that again. Why is it going to change this time around? Signity in this group. They're playing well. They have, I think the coaching advantage, which is crazy. It's two years ago.

29:47I was going to tell you that Dan landing was the best coach in the country. I think Indiana, like we talked about a couple minutes ago. They are the rightful favorite. And I think this is a matchup that works for them. I think they're going to get this done. So for me, it's the two favorites in the semi finals here. Before I get to your your week AT NFL thoughts, I brought up something yesterday on air. I'm not sure if I was supposed to, because you actually said it all fair. But I thought it was it stuck with me about MVP. Maybe you've talked about it on money boos on air as well. But you said your hunch was your hunch was this feels to you like a skied's Merrill thing in NL rookie of the year, a couple seasons ago, where it was like a lot of Merrill chatter, a lot of Merrill chatter. And then the end we find out it's not really that close at all at schemes. You sort of feel about NFL MVP that way. Explain. Yeah, I mean, I think I kind of feel this way. Excuse me. Pretty much with all awards at this point right now. Look, we have no clue what these people are thinking right now. And it's in, you know what? Excuse me, I'll cite last year defensive player of the year or the NBA. How many people were making the case that Dreymon Green should

30:48be defensive player of the year? How many times do we see the odds for Dreymon getting shrink? And then all of a sudden, what happened? He didn't come close to winning that award. You mentioned the NL rookie of the year race. We see there. We see Jackson Merrill get to minus a thousand. And people keep saying, well, that's it. This is going to be it. The odds are reflective of what this is going to happen. He doesn't even come close. I can give you example. For example, after example, where the overall conversation in what we believe to be the real world, AKA X or Twitter is nowhere near what is actually happening among some of these voters. And so here we have, this is not an anti-drink may think, by the way, because I know I can already hear like you're hate or you don't understand. I just think that voters at the end of the day, I always say this and it sounds insulting and I hate to say it. They are simpletons. And I think a lot of them are going to see Matthew Stafford despite the fact that he is on 18 that did not win the division, which by the way, one of the games are going to count against him in that regard is a game at which his team gave up a part of turn for a touchdown and couldn't turn away a two-point conversion after a two-play drive in which they gave up a touchdown. That's out of the way, right? I just think they're going to see a dude that might not have an MVP after a storied career that maybe 113 games

31:51and threw for over 40 touchdowns. And I think a lot of them are just going to go, yeah, that's my guy. And they're going to vote for him to win this award. And I think that you can throw out all the adjusted EPAs and you can do all these sort of things. But a lot of the times, the voters just gravitate toward the simple narrative. And I think a lot of the times that's going to lead to a guy like Stafford winning an award and a race like this. Lifetime achievement award. It's like Quincy Jones winning it at the Grammys. It's like, yeah, we got to give Quincy his props here. I hope John's right. That's right. No, I think that's an interesting take on. I really, and by the way, everything you're saying about reward markets, yeah, we have no idea. We have none. None. We don't know. We don't know if these numbers need anything. How many times can we, I just give you two right off the tip. I mean, there's so many times we can go through awards and these late pushes and people trying to make the case for my guy should win it. This should be it. Let's flip the odds, all these sort of things. Using that as evidence to their point. And then the awards come out and you're like, oh, yeah, like that, that wasn't even close. I mean, I can give you two more immediately. I mean, Joe Flacco's come back player of the year.

32:52We can go back to Trey Young and Luca Doncic. Trey Young ended this year very strongly his rookie season. And a lot of people were making the case that Trey Young was going to be rookie of the year. It wasn't close. I believe it was out of the unanimous or I think Luca got every vote but one. But either way, again, we don't know what's going to happen as I was like to say too. In these sort of things, there's no variance, right? I'm not, if I'm a voter, I'm not going to like slip and accidentally vote for somebody else. Right. We have no idea what's going to happen here. Slip and vote for somebody else. All right, real quick. Week 18. What, what, if anything, did you land on? There's only one and I, this is probably, it's not like really a hipster thing, but I'm going to be like all the other nerds. You call me a Tanner McKee truther. I think he's awesome. I think this fill it out for Eagles team is going to be well led here against your Washington commanders. Nothing really on the line, but I think McKee's good enough to get a win here as four point favorite. Tanner McKee truther. Jonathan Von Toe. All right. We're all waiting for you later today. Jonathan Von Toe, everybody, at me, JVT, go host of money moves

33:52and still makes his appearances on hardwood handicaps from time to time as well. Yes, every week. Every Thursday. Every Thursday. All right. With his clippers hat, still riding with the clippers. Thank you, John. Appreciate it, man. Happy new year. Coming back, we'll start our NFL whip around and Stevie Fesick will join us early as well, right after that. It's a numbers game at Beeson, the sports betting network. A numbers game on Beeson, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game. Live from Circa Resort, Casino downtown Las Vegas, Derek Stevens, Shangri-La on the desert. Skill Alexander. All right. There's Kelly Bill in everybody. Producer number nine. So much more than a producer. I have two things to say, Kelly, right off the top. What's up, look? One. I'm here to say that the most underrated flavor of Gatorade is glacier cherry. So you know, okay.

34:52Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's fantastic. Let me finish the statement on this. I'm sorry, no, that's all you got. So I've brought this up before. It's often, it's like my, I'm going to go second favorite. It's fantastic. So I'm going to go second favorite. No, but I just, I just pulled up real quick. Apparently, based off surveys, guess what? It's number two. Always a really cool blue, which I always say, when we always roll around the Super Bowl and I go blue, I always make the argument for blue because it has multiple colors that are very popular. Cool blue being the best. You said you've soured on cool blue, I'm soured on blue because every time I'm sick, I drink the blue, and now I associate it with being sick. Which do you think that makes sense? Speaking of sick. That doesn't mean anything bad against cool blue, though, that's a, that's a, you and cool blue relationship. That's just a relationship. That's just a personal relationship that I have with cool blue. Speaking of that, and I know you're very curious to know about the update. Because earlier in the week, I said, what part of a cold, which I have endured this week, which part of a cold do you find more annoyings? This was great conversation, but the faucet stage of the nose or the completely stuffed up

35:53middle of your face stage. Your answer was, No, no, no, no, no, that was not the original. Original question was the voice versus the faucet nose. Oh, the voice, the voice is part and parcel with the stuffed up. Correct. So that was where I went with for you. Yeah, it's, I'll speak for myself. It's more annoying to try to do the show with the faucet. No, no, but for the audience, it's probably a little better for us to have that than the really bad voice. I am in the, so now I'm over the hump, right? I think I am. I'm in the finale. But you know what stage I'm in now? The one nostril is clear, the other refuses to be clear stage. Are you familiar with that state? That is a annoying stage. I am. Common cold radio. We get tweets of beating the book. Real nicks had a three leg parlay. This doesn't make any sense. He says Georgia minus six, Georgia first half, Georgia over 30 and a half. Well, they can't be right. They wouldn't give you a team total. He said it wouldn't give you a parlay of that. Went to bed disappointed, financially woke up and found extra $185

36:56in my draft Kings account. Oh, he says I accidentally took Ole Miss plus six. That makes sense. Yay for not double checking my bed. 2026 off to a great start. Well, yes, because if you tried it the other way, they wouldn't have allowed you to. Would have been correlated. Dan Goodwin. I'm a ducks fan from just north of Bloomington, Illinois, Indiana. I have zero ducks futures, but have four bets at 40 to one on IU and two on Miami at 20 to one, all from early September. He says hashtag go ducks. So he still has his fan hood, but his financial steaks are elsewhere. Billy Charlotte Bois. We need an old school rap daily segment from Gil. It can feature both plus and minus. All start from the semis. He says I'm the type of guy. Goes to Trinidad, Chandler's for leaving his drawers in Georgia's hamper. That's a LL Cool J by the way, Kelly. And he said flip side, Alabama gets the gas phase. You know who that is? Nah, third base. What's your favorite third base? That is pop goes the weasel shirt. I know that one. I don't know that one.

37:57The how about did you real cool? Did you just Brooklyn's cool? I'm sorry. Did you catch the halftime show of the Rose Bowl yesterday? No, not the marching band early. No, I'm sure they did marching. What was the first game launchable? Oh, no, I didn't see the third eye blind. Oh, I didn't see that. I just saw the marching bands of the Rose Bowl. JVT and I are sitting in here. I think you had just walked out, right? You had just walked out before like halftime. JVT goes this was random halftime show ever. I go most random, but cool. So I really liked third eye blind when I was like 14 years old, okay? Nemesis and Forsem. I the only one that sees Polly Howard and Signeti Scowl could this could be his uncle at a minimum. I don't know if I saw that. You? No, I just got distracted by Manny Davidson tweet. One of the worst tweets we've ever received. Jason McKinney. Can you ask Fesick if he could do the EV math for us regarding the upside app? Yeah, I'll be sure to. Manny Davidson. Cool blue, fierce melon. Fierce grape. Ew. Honorable mention lime cucumber. Ew. What do you do, Manny? Oh god. What do you do? The fierce ones are way too, they're way too syrupy.

38:59Like they're very, they're fierce with the flavoring. Jason H 11 with an existential question. Please explain how when you are in the one nostril plug stage, it switches from one nostril to the other. That is also a phenomenon of the one nostril. You mean like when you're like, he's right. When you're like laying down in your bed and then you like, you flip sides and it just like it drains to the other side. It's really gross. Right, right nostril. Can't do a thing right now. Left nostril clears with Jack O'Lequire. Gil, Jimmy Jeff and I. I'm sorry, the screen went on you. Jimmy Jeff and I coming to town today. Do you or Kelly know if the circus sportsbook has open seating or are they all reserved for Sunday's games? If they're all reserved, it was not us putting moustaches and glasses on all of the Derek Stevens pictures. See you soon. Jack, I can get to the airport. I love you, man. But you know, I gotta, I gotta spray out of here. I don't know the answer to that question. Honestly, and I'm going to, I'm going to stop pretending to know answers to circus seating questions after yesterday with me and crack both surprised by that. Where I was like, why are there like 40 people waiting in a lot for yesterday? I think he's asking about Sunday.

39:59No, I know, I know he is. That's why I said, I'm going to stop pretending like I know the answers to these things because Danny informed me like, I didn't know these first two rows. So these first two rows down here are open seating. They're first come first serve. So when we looked around early yesterday, we saw a total of people sitting down here on both sides, but the other ones are all reserved. So yeah, call circuit ahead of time. Thank you. They don't ask me. Don't ask me and kill. All right, let's start a little whip around. Let's do it. NFL week 18. Let's go. All right. Remember, we don't have an open on it. I thought we had an intro. That's Wednesdays. That's Wednesdays. Oh, that's the Wednesday whip around. That's right. That's right. All right, first game. Cool whip. You'll make tea up for you. Yeah. Panthers and bucks. 130 Pacific time for 30 Eastern. I'm all, listen, I'm on the Panthers plus three during guessing lines. Bucks have lost seven of eight. Once again, the playoff situation is this. If the Carolina Panthers win this football game, they are your NFC South champions. However, if the Bucks win, if the Bucks managed to buck their seven of eight losing

41:01streak and win this game, they do not necessarily win the NFC South. They must then wait for the Falcons game against the Saints on Sunday. If the Bucks win and the Falcons win, it is a three-way tie at top the NFC South. And the Panthers get the tiebreaker based on record in between those three teams themselves. And remember, the Panthers swept the Falcons. That's the difference, including a 30 to nothing with. So really, if you look at it very simply, Panthers have two paths in Falcons. Excuse me, a Bucks have only one path in, which is a win in a Falcons loss. But I'm on the Panthers plus three, you? Nothing in this one. It takes away a lot of the gusto of that game that a three-way possibility is now in there. Because now it's not a win or take all necessarily. Right. Yeah, no, it totally does. Man, I honestly not having a bet on this game, not even that, all that excited to watch. Just, you have been down on this game. So let me know, yeah, let me know who's going to be in so I can bet against him in the wildcard round,

42:01because that's where, that's almost from it. I would love to say, I think the Bucks, I think the Bucks, I think Baker's just so banged up at this point in the season and so over. Because the other, they've arguably been healthier than they have been since like week two of the NFL season. They got all their other guys back, but Baker's so hurt. That's all I keep seeing every single week with him. And he cannot move this offense down the field. I think it's very limiting. And then you know the Panthers. I'm just like, I don't want any part of the Panthers game anymore. A banged up Baker is still better than a late stage career, Teddy Bridgewater though. As their brother, you know? I guess so. By the way, can you name the, uh, the third string quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Uh, it's trash still there. Connor Bazalak. Sure. You want to get that one? Second game on Saturday. I can give you. We get a sat here. Trask on the Cowboys at first. Kyle Trask. Kyle Trask. Seahawks Niners. This is for the not only the NFC West title, but for the number one seed in the national football conference.

43:04Seahawks at Niners. This really should be the Sunday night game. Yeah. Um, there's so many right. Oh, Seahawks are one and a half point favorites now on the road against the Niners. Even more. We see a circa right behind us. This happened this morning. Two and a half out of Seattle now. And I see Fandall boyed out to two. You know, Dinsick loves to Seahawks this week. I know a couple people that really like Seattle this week. I have no, I have no play on the side here, but this is not not only for the number one seed, right? By the way, if the Niners win, then the Rams have nothing to play for on Sunday. Because the Rams will then be locked into the sixth seed. That's if the Niners win also. But there's also the games within the games with our betting awards, right? Shanahan versus Mcdonald. For the number one seed, um, the McAfry. Jackson Smith and Jake. Offensive player of the year game. Offensive player of the year. Game within the game. So much for this game at Levi Stadium. The the night cap on Saturday. I think both those games we talked a little bit about this yesterday.

44:06I think the game earlier. I think that Panthers bucks game. And this game are going to are probably going to influence a war. That's more than they should. That's a Tederoha Mcmillan. Yes. A big book again. And specifically for Mcmillan, right? If he puts up a big game, I kind of have a feeling that that shut the door on that award. It's over. Yeah. If you wait to do Sunday after Fezakian, there was something else I was going to tell you. And I just blanked on it. Of course. Well, you know, all that nostril talk. Oh, I do have a bet in this game. That's what I was going to say. 10 point teaser started with the Niners. Yeah, I'm going to have to throw in a three point teaser. Yeah. There's some fun options this week. So yeah, I teased up Niners. Get some to 11 and a half. Niners will be in mind as well. For sure. It's just I'm not there on San Francisco. At this number, Seattle offense, though, has not been looking overly impressive. It wouldn't shock me at all. This is the lower scoring Seattle. And then there's the whole Sam Darnold. This is your career thing, right? Hey, Sam. This is kind of your brand. Can you overcome it?

45:07Of not sucking late here? Coming back. Steve Fezick an hour early next.