A Numbers Game | January 16, 2026 | Hour 1

0:00The numbers told the story of Alex now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with kill I like Xander gone V sent good Friday morning tutors and numbers game at V sent these sports betting that were V sent dot com game Plus I hard radio YouTube TV and of course series six of channel 158 kill I like Xander my little buddy Kelly Bidley Everybody hey, oh, how we doing long side was that a hey ho you know, hey, oh you call me off guard Kelly Bidley real name actual. I'm sorry I keep saying the Kelly Bidley. He was watching a social clip together. I'm like nobody's going to know my actual name is Yeah, this is it's a take on a DC sports talk radio that we're a Dexter Manley Miss pronounced the guy's name and then his co and then Cornheuser called him by the Miss pronounced name for the rest of time I'm apologizing to you here on air. It's Kelly Bidley and everybody or Kelly Bidle on either way works on the show today It is a football Friday. That means Fesik is here. Fesik Fridays a little later on the show everything that's on his mind And boy does he have stuff on his mind his well-coffed mind I believe that we say I didn't sort through all the notes yet this morning

1:06But yeah, there's there's no book as usual. Yeah, it's it's crack is unscripted. Fesik is slightly scripted. Yeah, you're right because he has Stuff he wants to get out of takes notes pretty sure he texts us more than what he actually says. That's right. That's exactly right Chris Velika will join us. I am looking forward to the Chris Velika sandwich because Chris is gonna talk Miami Indiana with us Of course, he is a Miami alum. He has strong thoughts on the natty Monday night and I can't wait to hear from him We'll go country club and a little later on Australia and open Sony open. I'll actually talk a little tennis here at the top two Paul Car the triumphant return of Paul car. Where's that kid been? Between me what have you done with him between me on vacation and then soccer on its vacation? Yeah Feel like I haven't taught I told him I feel like I haven't talked to him in a month and I think that's accurate and that's like longer than the entire soccer offseason in the summer time I was starting to get worried about him. I was gonna send out a search party. Yeah, but he's here today Paul Carr talked prim with us and apparently Some developments at the bottom of the standings among other things and of course we will go around the horn with the NFL

2:08Division around as it is a football Friday We are finally here to the division weekend division around weekend two games tomorrow two games on Sunday Australia and open tomorrow. Let's go natty on Monday. What a weekend. Yeah great weekend. I actually Last weekend was awesome Division around at the NFL playoff is always my favorite. I think wildcard round is better for me I enjoy more, but yes, this is still a great absolutely great weekend and then with all that We're gonna start the show with a little baseball just for a couple minutes because I don't know okay She missed it and Jeff pass in here reporting on it as well Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers Kyle Tucker full details on the contract by the way quoted to pass in four years 240 million guaranteed I'll do the math for you Kelly that's 60 million a year on average. It's pretty good if you can get it Mom's and dad's teacher kids that'll be baseball players opt-outs after years two and three 64 million dollars signing bonus 30 million deferred 57.1 million a year and net present value after factoring deferral so record by six million plus a

3:11Staggering deal or as we like to call around at these parts a Bidlin contract. How How exactly go do they keep doing all this deferred money? Well, so here's the I'm so glad you just Let me just say this when this kind of thing out so the Dodgers signed Ed Windy as yeah earlier Now it's Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker who by the way had the the hairline fracture to his right ring finger last year He suffered that injury on June 1st Then once you got back from that he sustained a left calf strain so it was it was last year was injury played for by the way a Picture list there Nick Bollack saying one year of Kyle Tucker Equals 89% of the Miami Marlins 2025 payroll and they're in lies the rub on all of this because And our own Jensen Lewis who's a co-hosted by the books who Captain America Dave Ross Jensen Let us know via text about a week ago or so. I believe it was where he's like, you know I was a player rep one year and he said he has never seen it be this contentious between owners and players and so

4:15When something like this happened now that Kyle Tucker has signed with the Dodgers He was the most coveted of all free ages out there And where do you say by the way? Where do you slot them in the lineup? I know I keep doing these aside, but so show Hey Mookie Freeman Will Smith. I don't know. Let's know Kyle Tucker in fifth Yeah, Teosker Max Muncie Pahey said man Edmunds we go bat knife. He like drives a lot of these games too. Anyway, the point is the whole dispute is The the owners want a salary cap. They want a salary cap and the and the players Understandably are like we don't want that. We want unfettered spending and This luxury tax that was you know Let's see if this curb spending clearly not right. It's clearly not worth so enjoy baseball in 2026 Y'all because I don't know that we're getting it in 2027 and I'm not trying to be dramatic because this is headed for For just the biggest Confrontation ever and I don't know if either side is going to

5:17Not dig in their heels in a way that's gonna prolong this okay Yeah, and when Kyle Tucker when someone like Kyle Tucker now signs with the Dodgers I think it was follicle on the group text who said this got on a given credit Which is you almost feel like now and I'll paraphrase it because he didn't say this exactly But I but I agree with him. You almost feel like the owners are like when assigning like this happens They're secretly pumping their fists under the desk because it's like great. This proves our point, right? This is now the Dodgers could by the way the Dodgers can you know can the other side can rightfully claim Hey, man, we want to bite. We want the world series by miracle. We need all the help we can get You know, yeah, but that's not really many people are buying that though That's not gonna be the still one world series. That's right. That's not going to be that's not gonna fly But I know I know an end bit an MLB player or two Who when their team gets eliminated in the regular season or in the in the postseason They immediately start to root for the team with the highest payroll because their thinking is that will incentivize Owners to pay us players more

6:18Yeah, and the other teams to spend more right to try to catch up to clearly that anyway, but you're gonna yet like I mean This is perfect example I had Kyle Tucker 89% of the Miami Marlins payroll, right? Like the bottom-to-euler teams are not They're not rushing to catch up and spend way more money when you especially when you're talking about and the worst Kyle Tucker what is he the fifth fifth best player on the roster for the Dodgers and something like that? That's 89% of the Marlins for a payroll. It's insane. Okay. I have one bad question for you based off of this the If you had to make a bet right now Oh The city thunder to win the NBA Finals or the Dodgers to win the World Series Where would you go just well? You know how I feel about the thunder and load management and how I feel about the spur So for me, it's the Dodgers even though the Dodgers have to go through the more random postseason Which is a crazy answer because it shouldn't be that way right? It should always be the basketball team that gets to play best of sevens But for me, it's still the Dodgers That's right. I'm actually like kind of surprised. There's I think I think it's a little bit

7:20I think the I think the thunder a little too short right now at plus one 20 and then like I'm looking at draft cases It's plus 250 for the Dodgers which is ridiculous is short It's the randomness of the playoffs. I would still bet that not heartbeat. Oh before I bet the thunder So when again, it's one. It's the the Drew Dinsick. I'm gonna make a Dodgers bet and then at the end of the year I'm gonna brag to all my friends the bar. Yeah, go to his beach bar and hang out with the ticket And the LBC so there it is Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers enjoy Dodgers enjoy non Dodgers fan Jason Weingardt Ted as I did though. So yesterday Drew speaking of Drew Dinsick Zach Cohen and I we did our Australian open podcast on the beating the book feed And let me just say this and I'm sure you guys feel the same way about golf There is nothing more enjoyable than doing tennis podcasts with these guys and Dan Weston also who of course Used to do them with us all the time before he became a cricket analytics Global superstar So it's just we were just talking about a whole bunch of Australian open things. I did make bets I had some bets before that it made some bets after and here are the following bets that I made and they're all with the exception of one on the lady's side

8:26To win the entire thing. I bet three players Which I don't usually do right? I usually bet just one but I've got three Jesse Pagula Who I bet to win the third quarter as I mentioned yesterday on the show at four to one when we were just showing the Quarters on the fly and I said Jesse Pagula 4 to 1 to win the third quarter is good value So I did go ahead and bet that in her quarter It's the Amanda and Nisimova quarter and then Amanda Nisimova Linda Noscow was in their Leyla Fernandez Maddie keys that if any champ But I a Pagula is the most consistent player in the world 4 to 1 to win the third quarter. I also have her winning the whole thing at 31 to 1 And then Naomi Osaka who I the numbers. I have hard court on Osaka I mean, she is still like the fifth best player in the world on hard courts to me. She has one four hard court slams So I've got Osaka there as well By the way, here are the odds to win the Australian Open Arena Saba Lake is the short shot at plus 185 the current number one in the world Current number two egos free out tech five to one

9:27They are on opposite sides of these brackets. Ega was done. No favors. This is like the ninth slam in a row where she just gets the Warts draw. Yeah, she's got Rabakana and Osaka in her bracket And Drew and I were talking a little bit about this on the podcast yesterday I have those three players fiat tech Rabakana and Osaka one fourth and fifth One four and five terms of hard court numbers. I think Drew had it like two Three and four five or something like that. So very similar But that's the so I got a socket a win at a 19 to one Little pennies above that and then Ega herself because she got the bad draw. She drifted So I did end up making a bet on Ega wasn't going to but plus plus five 25. I was like, okay Yeah, I'll take it. I mean great number if she gets out of that quarter, right? So I was gonna ask you so you're not better in the quarter Which makes sense with all that traffic. No, there it is And then the one bet on the on the men's side, which I also hinted at yesterday where we're watching this Lorenzo Musetti To win the third quarter. It's the only futures bet again when you're top heavy with center

10:29And Carlitos I'm not you know, and by the way, I I implore you to listen to the podcast if you want a deeper dive on this because both Drew and Zach Felt like there was a bet in Carlos's quarter. So I'll put you to the podcast for that I was not willing to do that, but they were At the old beating the book feed there it is right there where you get your podcasts Visin.com slash podcast for the beating the book podcast both the football ones and the tennis ones and everything else in between baseball included little masters Podcast with Kelly Bidlin and Matt Brown maybe before the masters as well But Musetti in the third quarter. That's the uh That's the quarter with Demetroff your boy Gregor Gregor Drifted to Tomas Mahatch Taylor Fritz and that's the Novak Jokovic quarter. So taking a flyer on Musetti there at plus 650 Can't wait australian open begins not Sunday night. I used to It used to start like after the NFL playoff games would end on Sunday Then you'd go to australian Melbourne and you in the business would start they actually start Saturday night

11:33I or time which they've done now for a couple years I was cool. That else catches me off guard Saturday night is when these start So little more than 24 hours still to go on the Aussie open. Uh, we'll come back some football props for the vision around weekend International footballly. It's a numbers game. It feeds in these sports betting network You're here because you want an edge That's what separates listeners from winners But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools the data and the discipline And now so can you visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use no secrets no fluff Just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with visa and pro A Numbers game on fee said these sports betting network want a bit smarter star with smarter insights right now You can check out Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets

12:34Saturday and Sunday divisional round previews and an update on the college basketball betting scandal and later today You can check out Zach Cohen's NBA best bets Jonathan Davis's NHL picks and props and daily racing form weekend picks That's the daily racing form weekend picks right now use promo code A N G a N G as in a numbers game to save $60 off a decent pro annual subscription at vson.com Slash subscribe kill Alexander Kelly Bidley Okay, I'll stop saying Kelly Bidley on the show. That's it. I'm gonna get too used to Kelly to bring something up earlier because of that. Yeah, Twitter is down Twitter's down, bro. Twitter's down Let's just go home. We can't do a show right? That's it. How do we just go? Do we do is do we do shows around here without Twitter on this on an G? I don't think we do. By the way, I've got I've got some good A N G promo code one say after I felt I felt personal shame Yeah, yesterday change a little bit. I'm sorry. No, no, I felt to myself. I need to be better than that if I'm gonna do this I have to be better than they can be prepared for each one of these so I wrote down a few. Okay I like have nothing's gonna beat your silent G on gnome the

13:37gnome gnome is pretty good man. That's pretty good. That is gonna be tough to beat I have for it down right now. I don't think any of them are better. Let's do let's do a few props here for division around weekend We'll go through game by game later. By the way for those I just mentioned the college basketball scandal Steve Fesick will have something or two to say about that a little later on the show for those who are craving college basketball betting scandal Commentary I almost texted you a couple times yesterday about that. It's like very very like the I was like Should we have done more or less with that on the show yesterday? I you know, we were very honest with the audience about like super honest Maybe more honest than maybe more honest than we should have been but man I kept coming back to that like sorry. This is the way I feel me too Me too. If nothing else were authentic. It's like that's just how we feel. It's like it's it's for those who missed it We've just become so numb to it. Yeah That the very people that it should have moved the most those who who are in betting Like ourselves and who bet every day. We I just couldn't work up the The fascination with it anymore and it's just it's just not none of it's surprising anymore, right?

14:40Like none of it's surprising. It's going on. It's not going to stop. Yeah It'd be nice if it stopped. I don't I don't I don't think any of us should be holding our breath though expecting. It's going to Yeah, that's what that was the that was the biggest thing that I said yesterday on the show about it And then I was interviewed by someone here in Las Vegas about it They're just like, how do you think it's like more or less Vegas? It's so funny the perspective that folks come from And I'm like, no, it's just it's it's a numbers game, right? It's just like Legalization for all the folks who you know You know say oh, it's just a legalization is great because it because it figures out Where the problems are okay, and maybe it figures it out sure that's the good. There's the good bad But the beginning of that arc is yeah, but it because it's so much more accessible It's just a numbers game. This is just going to happen more right more people know about betting Yes, or betting and this type of stuff is just going to naturally happen And it's such a very simple answer and people don't want to seem It's just like set that but again on the other side like yes, when you have some of these agencies involved

15:40They can they can report this stuff or would have gone unreported or unfounded in years past So it's the good and the bad yeah, but the the bad created the good credit for the good Division around highest scoring team will do the lowest scoring team to these these are going to be again They're going to correspond roughly with What the team totals are there's going to be you know, maybe a little exception here in there like the Broncos, I guess Supply you know if we if we do most if we do highest scoring team here the Rams at plus 275 are the short shot Why because the Rams are supposed to score about 26 points in this game You do the whole conflation between Full game total and spread see hawks who are three to one just an increment behind the Rams In their game against the Niners They're also supposed to score right around 26 points So it makes sense right based on the the numbers it corresponds directly with what your team totals are Generally speaking again, little you know a few exceptions right the bears at plus five 50

16:42Supposed to score around 22 and a half points the Broncos at six to one. Let's call it 23 and a half So there is a little bit of that right where there's a little difference I don't know if there's a bet here Kelly um, you'd probably because of because the math is generally going to work out You just kind of have to go with your handicap. Yeah, and so what do you think here? Yeah, I got this is relatively boring answers I made a bet yesterday on the under game under in the Broncos bills So I really don't think it's going to be either one of those teams So it'd be across both those off the list for me We haven't taught brought up yet sam d'arnal sam d'arnal oblique injury. I mean three to one on this on this board This is the the surprising news of yesterday is that sam d'arnal all of a sudden all of a sudden showed up on the injury report with an oblique uh, so the opposite of his throwing side right so his left oblique left side oblique and He says there by the way here's a video of sam d'arnal with an oblique injury sort of jogging not very athletically I read that initially with the massage gun yeah with the massage gun on the field

17:44talking about very athletically These poor guys they never know when they have cameras on over like look at his stupid jug. That's right But he says he's a go right? He says yeah, yeah, maybe I'm questionable But like I don't see myself not playing if it's not him. It's drew lock by the way just point that up But anyway, that was a bit of a news yesterday So I know it's no no I wanted to bring it up I don't know that it affects my feelings much on the game We did see this line settle in at seven though, which I think it's fair We were hovering around that 7.25 area right between seven and seven and a half pretty much settled in at seven I think that's a fair adjustment. It's just knowing we have a quarterback going in dealing with anything But it's enough. It's enough in this market kill for me to be like. I don't want to play the sea hug for sure I agree like if I have any question whatsoever about the quarterback in long way of getting to the only two teams That I would actually focus on would be the Rams and bears. I I will be watching the weather very closely Up until game time I have a feeling I'm gonna end up on an overplay here

18:46If if the wind is not too bad, I'm betting the over in the Rams. If you're betting this market Am I it was it's crazy for me to just say just bet the Niners at 15 to one and just have fun with it So I brought that up last week, right? It was like It would Niners were long as held too. So like I if you think there's life in the Niners. Yeah 15 to one I don't think it's crazy. It really just is about your handicap if you think the Niners have a puncher's chance here Then 15 to one isn't played lowest scoring team is just going to be the inverse of this. Mm-hmm generally speaking With again the the teams projected with the lowest team totals are the Niners and the Texans right plus two 50 and three to one So just going to be the oppo of this I mean, so Rams had to have been the short shot last week, right? They were the they were the highest scoring team 34 But you know like the Texans scored 30 last week It's possible to get a long shot to cash here and for people who say oh, yeah, we have a tour on defense Yeah, I probably should have scored two on offense earlier. So I don't think that's uh I don't think that's a not you know a poor reflection of what what they should have had as their output last week I'm more interested in these right here. This is so this is

19:48How that's high scoring team. That's a low scoring team. How about these right? This is Who will throw for the most passing yards? So I have a trivia question for you Kelly Biddlein Okay, so I can say it So Matthew Stafford is the short shot here plus two 25 followed by Caleb Williams at plus four fifty Then it's darnled at plus five fifty Drake may at six to one everybody else after that rounding out with bonix at ten to one Uh, who the uh Jared golf and Dak Prescott. Let's just use 300 yard games as the marker Dak Prescott and Jared golf tied for the most 300 yard games this year in the NFL they each had six Of the remaining eight quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs Two of them had four regular season games where they threw for 300 I'll spot you one of them Matthew Stafford who also threw a fifth by the way in the playoffs Who's the other one That's could be a trick question but go with Brock Perty bonix bonix bonix at ten to one the longest shot of the

20:48Is the only other player here with four? I don't know like that's not a I don't think it's that I was surprised to learn that by the way I mean the Buffalo defense you are not right in home about the Buffalo defense. They are not the 85 bears. No, they are not So I again for me if you're playing this market don't you just take nicks at ten to one and hope Yeah, I really think you do Pro I like I expect Kayla Williams out of the big day But that's you know that goes back to my whole point about the weather and looking at the over right like it's gonna I wouldn't bet this until basically kick off if I was if I was interested in that one I think I think Caleb plus 450 might have some life. Caleb plus 450 was the one that I immediately went to yeah but Bonix ten to one makes more sense to me based on the price and I know I'm not in this camp and I know I said the same thing last Caleb's playing in the weather so it might be might be right yeah Which could be overblown which could be overblown that's where I'm that's where I'm telling you kill like I think it I think as I'm right now it is overblown. Maybe it's not by kickoff right. Maybe it is very windy and very

21:52underblown So I think like if it if it looks relatively good out there. I'm betting this game over I mean if you if you if you said this game was in LA This totals like 53 between the barricant Rams like the the Rams defense has not been super impressive recently not Reason I know I the one I keep going back to though or it was is the Niners like highest score it like if you I'm not one of these people But if you like the Niners this week It's not the Niners defense that's gonna step up out at nowhere and completely shut this down and win a low scoring game It's Brock party and Kyle Shanahan Winning the battle against Mike McDonald in that Seahawks defense. I think Bonix is the bad at 10 to 1 I really do and I was great stat you brought up and then the last one is there's there's there's no reason again No reason against a Buffalo defense. He can't run okay. That's right divisional round props any these are all knows for me I wouldn't bet any these any quarterback to have five or more passing touchdowns 10 to 1 any non-quarter back to throw a touchdown

22:54Pass 10 to 1 any offensive lineman to score touchdown 20 to 1 any team to be shut out 10 to 1 any team to score 50 plus 18 to 1 if I had to bet one of them it would be Non-quarter back to throw touchdown. Why not? I was gonna see the same thing. Yeah, God that seems silly But that's the only one I would even consider 10 to 1 should be getting more fields. Oh, yeah, you should yeah Paul Carr has been spotted. He's neck on a numbers game at visa these sports betting network A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network back on a numbers game live from circle resort Cuz they know downtown Las Vegas Gill Alexander Kelly Bidlin alongside Here on this lovely football Friday Steve Fesec still to come on the show a little later on Chris Falico on the natty and more no Dr. Bob today Dr. Bob He's got what was this comment? He was like I got nothing I actually think it's similar to what we were just talking to Paul about off here I think he has a sporting event to attend today. Oh with his kids. Yes. Okay. Well, that's a viable

23:56We'll allow it. We'll allow it. Let me check the text. So he might be making that up ladies and gentlemen speaking of Paul Carr He makes his triumphant return to the program after spending the holidays in Topeka, Kansas or they're about. I'm not sure. Maybe he went on a trip He joins us down to talk premier league and more Paul Carr now ladies and gentlemen courtesy of the progressive guests. Now you follow him on Twitter at Paul Carr C-A-R-R how you doing Paul happy new year? I know I'm not allowed to see that but there you go Yeah, no little wait there, but I'll take it. I'll take it. Yeah, I'm doing well. It's fun This is one of my favorite sports times of the year the next month or two with NFL playoffs Just basically starting the last third or so of the soccer season in Europe Champions League knockout rounds get going soon So baseball is on the horizon. It's a fun time. Yeah By the way, we'll get we'll get to soccer because I was playing with Jeff Parles I'm playing tennis with Jeff Parle yesterday The Grover Cleveland of a numbers game producers and he was mentioning how he was trying to get world cup tickets Around the country and how They claim there's like they have there's millions of applications for this stuff

24:58So it'll be very interesting to see how that how that works out are you in any capacity? Are you going in any the world cup games this the summer Yes, so I have I did not win the lottery myself, but I have a friend who did who you win the lottery? You can buy it's like 32 or 40 tickets total max of four per game So I have eight tickets to games here in Kansas City. Oh, man And then my brother has some games in Dallas. So I may end up down there too So it's one of the decided, you know, which games because I got a sore Dallas and friends But yeah, I've got eight tickets in my lap It's one of those things where you're you try to you're not going to just apply to what you apply for one game You have to like you know, it's a numbers game so you apply for as many games as possible But then there's the worry that you're going to get accepted for all of them And then you're going to be like 20 large in the whole yeah This last round of round the lottery was different and it was just like that which yeah You're a little wary on I mean you could resell all those tickets But obviously you start to they form a front right it would it will become It's a little hairier than the first two yeah, and it'll become your full-time job for the next four months try and unload them Yeah, okay before we so we before we get into the premiere league

26:01And I would like to ask you about some World Cup stuff You are you you were listening you said off air to the first segment I was talking about Kyle Tucker And then sort of I drew the line then to this What looks like it's going to be a work stoppage Or a lockout whatever it ends up being however it's going to be phrased in the end But it looks like 2026 man right now if I had to put a betting line on will there be baseball All at when it's supposed to start in 2027 I would actually put no as a favorite you have some insight to this you you're always negotiating with baseball teams With your analytic stuff over at true media explain Yeah, so we work with almost every team They use our software for advanced scouting or Self-analysis player development whatever it is and so you know Just naturally there's a handful of teams up every offseason and in negotiating this offseason Most of the teams want either you know, I want to make sure this deal ends after the 26 season So we don't know what 27 will look like or you put appropriate language in to protect both sides etc

27:04So and it's more so then the last work stoppage which is what 22 I think Or even covid I think maybe those things that may teams more aware of this stuff Maybe it's just the business influx that's you know heightening something like that or they just Know it's probably gonna happen, but yeah, I would definitely make no a favorite if I'm placing a line as well He's there it is that there's no more stark evidence than that kind of thing right there where they're like yeah Let's end this contract by the end of this year just you know In case uh, okay back to the World Cup for a second And just remind us because we haven't spoken to you in a long time Give us your sort of broad outlook of of the World Cup both from a US perspective and then just from a general perspective Yeah, I mean the the same teams are favorites as usual So you know if if one of the a team from outside those you know six seven eight favorites wins That's gonna be a huge shock and a huge story But it's just it's the biggest World Cup ever is the biggest story I mean literally there's 48 teams it had never been over 32 before It's obviously in the US it's across a lot of time zones

28:05So it's just this massive undertaking. There's 12 groups instead of eight Selfishly from a research perspective. That's a huge pain. Yeah, 50% more teams But it's so yeah, it's just gonna be this this year scope of it There's gonna be three four games a day for almost a month So there's just so much there and if you're the US like Expectation if you don't get out of the group. It's a failure if you Losing the round of 32 it might be a failure depends a little bit on who you run into But I think like par is kind of win-win knockout game and reach the round to 16 I like that par is that and then and we if I may say we as the US we We didn't end up with the worst group, right? We ended up with a pretty doable group, right? Who's in there? See paraguay australia and a european opponent to be determined in March Yeah, there's no yeah, right. There's no world power there, which is good I mean if I'm looking at downside like all four of those teams are decent like nobody's terrible You can maybe australia, but the US is gonna be a favorite of slight favorite in

29:08At least two games maybe three depending on the playoff team that gets there and this is the first ever international tournament in the nine year history of a Numbers game or Paul card did not select germany as the winner. Is that correct? Whoa. Yeah, I know I don't see that change in I bet or sorry Ecuador to win that group that germany is in I think it was a group E Plus 400 right after the draw. So I'm gonna be fading germany and it pains me to say that and who are you and who are you backing? I've been picked the title team yet. Yeah, I'm happy with the odds again Spain is gonna be tough to go against, but they're also I think the favorite so I don't know if there's a ton of value there So yeah, we'll definitely obviously be something I'm looking into Spain plus 450 England plus 550 France 8 to 1 Brazil 8 to 1 Argentina 8 to 1 and then we dropped a Portugal at 11 to 1 The usual suspects usual suspects. Um, give us one side beyond that usual group that you think might be live To go deep. I like Ecuador. I mean, I mentioned them. Okay, you know, I mean to win the title is a lot Different than just to win the group or something like that

30:10But I feel like South American teams tend to be undervalued so Ecuador Columbia Those are the kind of teams that you want to make a bet on them to win a group make a run to the quarter finals Those are things I'm gonna be looking at okay to the prem to the premier league one question before we get to your three Pack of picks which is when we last left the Wolverhampton Side the the wolves Wolverhampton wanderers if you want to be a nice nailed it. There we go They were at two points and they were threatening right to be the worst team in the history of the prem What's this to quote the great Steve Fezig? They're at seven points. What is happening? Yeah I mean, it's shocking a that they got five points in the last three games draw wind draw on the last three And maybe even more impressive like they look like a real team This is not a you know, they didn't win them all one nil and just kind of smash and grab Got a pointer two or three and got out of there like they look like a real team They brought our new manager Rob Edwards earlier in the season and seems like his ideas and concepts are finally taking root

31:10So I'm not saying they're gonna get out of relegation because they're still heavy favors to go down But they look legit, but yeah, the problem is of course they still have seven points in their see 17th place the 14 points deep in the relegation zone They're not making that up, but it is nice to see them kind of look like a real team for a bit Yeah, they probably will get to 11 which is the the standard bearer for the worst ever of all time Yeah, Derby County can put that champagne on ice. That's that's right Okay to the three pack of picks and these are all tomorrow All tomorrow. We're gonna start with the big one of the weekend man city and Manchester United This is Apple Trafford so away from man city This line feels like a trap to me I played this at even money on the man city win and I'm gonna walk right into the trap Three straight draws for city, but it could have showed a beat in Brighton and Sunderland in that stretch Nothing's really changed. They're still pretty clearly the second best team in the league and not too far behind arsenal They brought in Antoine Semenio who joined from Bournemouth. He scored in both games so far

32:11So another dimension for a man city attack They're dealing with a lot of injuries, but so is Manchester United Matthias Deluxe still not healthy defensively for them United's a mess. They fire their manager a couple weeks ago. They're in seventh But they just haven't really been that good on the whole so I'm just gonna take the better team even though it's on the road It's across town man city win at even money the old Paul Carr I'm gonna take the better team handicap which I wasn't a fan of man Man city even money at man you the big game of the weekend and then there are a couple totals. We have here We'll start with Leeds full them over two and a half plus one 15 Leeds is newly promoted and they're just about safe from relegation They're plus 700 or so to go down right now. So that's good for them They're looking pretty good Third most goals in their games this season over three pro game third most in the league that is Seven of the last eight games have gone over or attacks been a good form including American Brendan Aronson Fulm's up to ninth form hasn't really dipped lately despite some players being gone for africa cup of nations Real knack for scoring goals late

33:12So if you need one to hit the overlaid they've had four late goals lately to steer results and half their away games have gone over This season some getting plus money on the over two and a half line. I'll take that here Leeds full of over two to have goals and then the over two and a half and the cunderland crystal palace game as well Yeah, it's a plus 120 you don't see that very often on over two and a half. This is kind of catnip for me Palis is the better team here But they've been scuffling lately down to 13th manager announced this morning that he's probably gonna That he's leaving at the end of the season one of the best defenders marty is likely going to man city and won't play Sonnyland's in 10th place, but they're really not very good at all They tried avalous scoring games, but the defense isn't that good most three home games are out of our two and fxg So over two and a half plus 120 all great use of a smash and grab earlier as it applies to soccer I enjoyed that as well. Thank you. Give you points for that great to see you man Should we we can't we can't go this long again. Appreciate it We'll come back next week. There you go. We'll do it. Paul Carr everybody courtesy of the progressive guest line

34:12We'll come back more football and Chris Filica on the nadi. It's a numbers game right here at visa You A numbers game on v said these sports betting network reaching people is easy reaching the right people is everything Mission media helps your brand to exactly that with cross-platform strategies The reach sports fans were ever there watching a listening podcast connected TV streaming in digital And because mission media is the exclusive advertising partner for v sin You get access to one of the most loyal engaged bet-ready audiences in the country people who respond engage and convert That's the most important part get started at bson.com slash advertise or email advertising at vson.com Kelly later today after the show. I am going to attempt to break my record for quickest departure to boarding an aircraft I currently hold the Las Vegas record for doing this biggest turnaround from circus studio to the actual plane today

35:16I attempt to break it bro boarding time 11 11 a.m I I I don't care who's listening if they find this very boring I am beyond fascinated with gills decisions to do this every time and you you are telling me this is need to be the cut This is going to be the record wow. Yeah previous record 1137 now. I am trying. I don't know what I'm doing I don't when I make these flights the problem is that they change the flight time Yeah, so if I miss this one then I got to wait four more hours. Okay, I got to do it 1110 1111 do you mean don't short change me For god's sake One other thing before we get into these football games. You're also have you watched sports center lately? Yeah, I flipped it on in the mornings sometimes I don't really watch it much late at night I have my my sports center viewing has It wasn't a conscious decision, but it's just decreased over time, right? We have we have guys we like over there right? SVP's always great. SVP's awesome. I was just I was looking great But I I don't watch him as much anymore. I don't and he wasn't on last night There there was there was just you know your standard sports center

36:18I was amazed because I hadn't really watched in a long time. Yeah, I was amazed that Just how much I knew they leaned into the into the NBA But they lean into the NBA in a way that If you are not like a basketball heart oh, it is startling like you're like okay Can we can we talk about something else here like if the NBA is not the NFL not everybody's obsessed with this yeah Which is a little interesting It's probably why I consume more than Gil right? It's a little interesting because the you know they they don't have as much Many rights to games anymore. Well that and that's why they lean into it right? Yeah, but that was always you know Part of the reason that me and you would say in the past, but right that but that doesn't make for an objective program when I'm watching like the fact that I was Distracted by that tells me everything I need to know right where it's like why did that thought even enter my head because it was so I thought Deliberate and I'm just like we don't I don't have to watch a fourth game highlight Before we talk about other things there's a little bit of scramble in that newsroom

37:18Just like there is anywhere when it's when football starts to slow down. It's like we've been doing the same thing for like five months What do we do now? Oh, I don't know if you guys know this but the NFL's playing speaking of which Buffalo at Denver To start things off for 30 Eastern on Saturday and power field at mile high Where the Broncos now? I've settled in and I think we can say settling in because there's been for a while now There are one and a half point favorite remember on Monday I guessed three on the Broncos and I was shocked to find out Buffalo was a tick of a favorite Will actually was the first person tell me Sunday night on should a bit more. I was like are you serious? So we're back to more what I think it ought to be not that it's a huge deal between who's the tick of the favorite But Broncos are a minus one and a half home point home home favorite in this Totals at 46 and I Kelly have no bets on this ballgame. Yeah, this is I in no shock at all right. We're seeing the same kind of line movement We saw we could go with Jacksonville, right? I think it it checks out it makes sense you and I were both the I think we were more surprised last week, right? Like it's less of probably you were more surprised this week

38:21I was more surprised last week with Jacksonville with that line being originally set I think we set it on Monday. We thought we would drift this way Broncos I think it probably closes Broncos one and a half to something like that I don't think we're approaching three But I also don't think we move back to Buffalo as like a consensus favorite or anything I bet the under last night kill. I think that We a lot of what we saw in that game Jacksonville with what Buffalo did offensively They're gonna have to try to do again and that and what I mean by that is try to run the ball Try to take the take the air out of the ball take time off the clock and just and just shrink this game We talked about forever game you brought up Where it was green Bay Chicago where it was like seemed like it lasted forever That that Jacksonville Buffalo game. It was like I feel like every time I looked up I was like there's six minutes of run off the clocks since I last checked this I think that's how Buffalo is very deliberately going to do with do things on offense and for Denver Okay, compared him to Jacksonville better defense worse offense in my mind

39:21So that all checks out for an under player. I played under 46 and a half yesterday And then I did tail will on the overrush attempts from Josh out. Yes you did I just think it's I do think it's going to be a rugby type game for this Buffalo offense It's just going to be move the ball however we can and that is going to be with Josh out on this offensive line in this running game I feel this over again the mega pod question of which is the game you want no part of the four game divisional round edition This is the game I'd want no part of and it's reflected in the line being only one and a half You could tell me it's the old you could tell me any outcome and I wouldn't be surprised if you told me the Broncos When it going away wouldn't be surprised the Broncos wouldn't close wouldn't be surprised Buffalo winning close wouldn't be surprised And actually I wouldn't be that shocked if Buffalo won by more than a touchdown either no me either I agree with you I agree with you on all of that and this is I'm kind of surprised I'm going to say this I would not be running to jam the bills at current price into a teaser Like I do think there's a possibility that yeah Broncos run away with it I think there's possibly Buffalo runs away with it

40:22I did take the Niners plus seven and a half at Seattle and the second game on Saturday um again the hook was key here for me Can the Niners somehow cobble it together for another week With this mash unit of a team no George Kittle now with a rupture to kill these poor dude Seattle with a Sam Darnold oblique injury We'll see how much that affects him assuming he goes and he's saying he will But we'll see how much that affects him will they need a lot of Sam Darnold on a Day where they're playing again once again against a a Niners defense that is not with their you know anywhere close to their original group of flares But whose linebackers comported themselves very well last week Um, it's fascinating game I just think the spread is way too much on this and I know people have the Seattle week 18 win Very close in their memory. So they're like what are you talking about? They'd saddle just did it But there was no Trent Williams in that game and he means a lot So I took the Niners plus seven and a half Fred Warner update probably not gonna go. Yeah, not gonna go not gonna go this week

41:27But could still be live for next week Champion chance which was what it was always supposed to be yeah I'm all over the place on this game girl There's part I laid six with Seattle on open. I thought that was way light Understand the week 18 what's what's similar and what's different about it right? The other one the other part that's different is we are flipping who's hosting this game I thought this line. I mean Seattle close like a two and a half point favorite at 49ers I thought this would easily be on the other side of seven I think somerset eight and a half yesterday, right? That's kind of where I thought it was gonna be So under seven it was a run to bet Seattle Uh for me, but haven't said all of that like I've heard a couple people kind of just like dismiss this as like a game Like this is a big favorite like Seattle take care. I I'm fascinated in this guy This is one of the games I'm more interested to watch this week just because I think you've got Two of the more talented coaching minds on you both sides of the ball go it up against each other right Mike McDonald Kyle Shanahan. I think this is a rivalry We see for years to come in that division and you know Mike McDonald's kind of the new kid on the block in that division as far as the The the talented head coaches go with McVeigh and Shanahan um

42:31I think it's gonna be really interesting I think you and I are both Brock party fans This could be a Brock party Kyle Shanahan legacy game if they go out and pull out a win here And I think I think so much is going to be asked of them Made a little side bet with Jensen this morning. He was on uh He was playing the anytime touchdown for christian McCaffrey said give me the no Seattle is gonna go out there and do everything to shut down take him away Take him out of the game and make Brock party beat you which Brock party can't that's why I'm excited to see this But we also know Brock at the work three intercepts Brock pretty experiences one extreme or the other I love I love I'm going back to back. Yeah, the match up. I'm most looking forward to is the Patriots and the Texans on Sunday morning. I took the Texans plus three Uh number one defensive unit in the national football league going up against drake made by so Sundays the day By the way the drake made Caleb Williams day where drake man Caleb Williams try to get to the year the respective championship games in year two Trying to match what jaden Daniels did on the road in year one. Just one point that out. They're doing it at home Um, so this will be interesting

43:32Patriots only put up 16 against the charge defense. Let's see how much they can put up against the Texas defense I took the Texans plus the points low total 40 and a half Yeah, this is uh, yeah, Patriots that they two and a half on open the sick. I Should say this all the time that the Seattle Seattle opener was a pretty big bet for me I did buy off of it some with the seven and a half on the Niners We talked about that earlier in the week. I don't know about you. These bet bet size for me has not been anything bigger You know than regular season games. I think this has been a really fun Set of matchups so far on the playoffs, but nothing nothing besides that Seattle six where I really thought I had a big edge I'm where we're the marking numbers were coming down some Patriots two and a half. I thought it would be three three and a half Ishmore um bet that I bet Drake may over is rushing on to get 66 I believe last week is what he finished with I think you're going to see more of that even with a tougher defense Texans uh, some of their past rushers able to get around that offensive line He's got to bail out in the pocket. I think you could say Drake made trying to use his legs a little bit more

44:33So I did like his rushing yards over 35 and a half. I bet that I have bets on the two interior games But not on the the first and the last I don't have anything on the bears and the Rams or the Rams are three and a half point favorites Weather supposed to be cold, but it's not going to be the ice bowl. Yeah I this the one I don't have a bet on and I think right now I would want nothing to do with kill Yeah, if if if this happens to take down to three which I do not expect I will have to take some of the Rams and I will be watching whether I think an overplay Could be could be coming from yeah, I think I'd I'd leave that way as well We're going to try to pry Chris for leap folico away from barstool Stuff the national championship next on a numbers game