A Numbers Game | January 14, 2025 | Hour 3

0:00The numbers told the story to Alex now. Swindles 80 to believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill. I like Xander gone V sent our number three of a numbers game at V sent these sports betting network V sent calm game plus I hard radio YouTube TV series XM Channel 158 Gill Alexander. Kelly Bidlin alongside. We got to do more of those golf and tennis. Yeah, some good ones. Yeah, and I'm assuming they're gonna be pulled down pretty quickly here with Goals starting tomorrow. Oh, I got to sign up for the Rick run good. Yeah, Rick run good one and done today from Rick gaming at where's that splash sports? Yeah, okay. We'll do that. And Todd Wichon have still to come this hour. We we have Warren Sharp standing by. We get tweet speed in the book. Just want to read a couple mariners geek listening on on delay. He says, imagine how good you have to be at coaching when you're suing three teams and are still highly coveted. Yes, I've been talking about Brian Flores. Yes, great point as we were mentioning earlier went through the whole lawsuit. Ray Joseph, can you guess the last duo to win both MVP and offensive player of the year while playing on the same team? Oh, this is a good question. Oh, man. No. Back in the day, they used to win both of them. Like one guy would win both of them. You're right. So I think like Joe Thysman and 83 and like Joe Montana 89. I mean, I say I

1:19Kurt Warner and Marshall Falk. Great as show. Yes, that's a good one. Has anybody done that since then would be my guess. I don't know. That that's a that I definitely remember that they both won those two. I'm not going to look. I'm going to try to. I'm going to try to think of some options here while you while you're talking. I don't know if he's going to tweet us back with the actual research. I could be lying. Maybe I'll eventually Google it too. Who knows. Speaking of coaching. We had a good conversation with Warren Sharp last week about coaching maneuvers and his thoughts on the that down John Harball had just been removed as the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. Let's talk some coaching and beyond with these divisional round games with Warren Sharp who joins us now at sharp footballs where you can find him on Twitter. courtesy of the progressive guest line. Once again, Warren, somewhere in his lab is home lab in the DMV. I don't want to do great. Excited for these divisional round games. I think they're going to be a lot of fun. I said last week, though, entering last week's game, maybe on your show, in fact, you know, that I was looking forward to the wildcard more than I ever had before because I didn't really see that, you know, top tier elite team. We don't have two teams the best in each conference coming back from a buy like we did in the past. It's just one in each conference. Nothing really separating those two teams. Nighting day above the rest of these. So sure enough, last week's game.

2:34The games were outstanding. Hopefully we can live up to some of that here in the division around as well. Hopefully we came before we get into that. We were talking coaching you and I last week when Steve Bishadi fired John Harball. I am curious how you feel about a couple of days. Let's start with the Eagles and no more Kevin Patula. What do you think about them? Well, that that was inevitable to me. You have to move on from Kevin Patula. So I saw a lot of people really on on social yesterday getting excited about that. That to me was like the bare minimum of what was going to happen. It should have happened during the season. It should have never happened in the first place. He wasn't qualified to call plays and that's the problem with some of these internal hires. The Eagles now have to go mercenary style just like they did when they won the Super Bowl in 2023 and sorry, 2024 and go outside the building and get somebody in there for a coordinator. But more than that, I just don't see why Nick Seriani is still there. To me, Nick Seriani is the reason we had Kevin Patula Nick Seriani is the reason that the Eagles completely wasted the 2025 football season. And I just never viewed Jeffrey Lurie as the type of owner who would stand for that type of process issue.

3:50That's a process driven issue. The Eagles didn't lose this game, this game yesterday or the, you know, failed to make it back to the Super Bowl because of injuries, but because of anything, but their own internal decision making and strategization for games, as well as their use of their quarterback. I mean, I could just tell you this, if Jalen Hertz refuses to run and does not want to run and wants to be a pocket passing quarterback. The Eagles are not going to win another Super Bowl. They're just not. He is not a good enough pocket passing quarterback to sit back there without the threat of a run game on almost every single dropback. You don't have to run every single dropback, but you have to be willing to take those open run lines. If you're just transitioning into being a pocket passing quarterback, it's not going to work for Jalen Hertz to command that type of salary and to get the ceiling that he's gotten in the past with the Philadelphia Eagles. So I still have concerns about what Jalen Hertz is willing to do with this likes. I still have concerns with what Nick Sireani is bringing from a process perspective to the building. So yes, I think that they need to go outside the building, get a new OC and call some plays that are a bit more aggressive and, but there are just too many drawbacks here with this team right now for me to really think that this is a potential Super Bowl favorite in 2026 despite the fact that we see a great roster for that team.

5:09I mean, how he does a great job building an outstanding roster for this team, but they do have limited limitations in my opinion. Yeah, I wonder if Jalen Hertz will defy the old numbers game thing that I said for many years, which is you can only win a Super Bowl with a quarterback over performing on a rookie deal or a Hall of Famer. I wonder if Jalen Hertz becomes a glaring exception to that rule and the other thing that's interesting about Sireani is with Harbaugh and Tomlin now no longer with the Ravens and Steelers immediately we hear about well. I mean, John Harbaugh wears, you know, he's calling his shot where he's going next Mike Tomlin probably a year or however many doing TV. Maybe he can call his shot if he wants to come back. We don't ever hear that about Sireani, right? It's the opposite. It's sort of like if Nick Sireani wasn't the Eagles coach tomorrow, would he have any suitors at all, which is a fascinating juxtaposition. You always have to look at it from the opposite perspective, like if you're calling a play like the Buffalo Bills down at the goal line and if the Jaguars want you to score, that means you probably shouldn't be trying to score down there at the goal line.

6:13And if nobody really wants Nick Sireani, if nobody would be like lining up to call Nick Sireani to become their head coach, should he really stay on board as your head coach? Like, should you really be driving to make that happen? One other coaching thing. We have nine openings now, so more than a quarter of the league. I'm just going to pick the one that we've talked about the least, the Titans Brian Dable interviewing there. What do you think about that? Yeah, Dable interviews down there Friday, and there was a lot of love for cam ward. The giants lost their opportunity to get cam ward by winning another meaningless week 17 game in 2024 that screwed up their ability again. They still got their guy and Jackson Dart a little bit later on in the draft, but you know, we saw some of the pre draft stuff with cam ward. We know Brian Dable really likes working with cam ward and there were some limitations that the Tennessee Titans had last year in a variety of positions, but they weren't utilizing cam ward, I think, to the best degree possible.

7:13And if you have a quarterback that you drafted number one overall, your next head coaching hire needs to be somebody who is going to work with that quarterback and get him to reach his ceiling. And I've talked on visa before about what I saw from Brian Dable when he was working with Jackson Dart. And when Jackson Dart was going up against five straight playoff caliber defenses and performing extremely well outperforming the NFL averages from a yards per attempt, you three seven touchdowns only one interception in those games. They almost went to Denver. If you guys remember this earlier this season, Jackson Dart and the New York Times almost beat the Denver Broncos in Denver. I took a comeback from the Denver Broncos late to win that game. That was the game, I think, came scataboo injured himself in as well. So, you know, there were some upside with what Brian Dable was doing with Jackson Dart for periods of time. Now there are some drawbacks as well. And those need to be, you know, course corrected in the future. But I do think he would be a fascinating prospect to work with a quarterback like cam dart cam ward.

8:15And get a coach, though, who is going to be willing to just raise the ceiling of cam ward and build everything around making cam ward great. And there are some parallels that it's, it's not, it's not apples apples by any means, but a bigger quarterback who is a little bit physical who can push the ball down the field who is also can be coached into being a little bit mobile. I mean, Dable's work with Josh Allen before as well. I'm not suggesting cam ward is Josh Allen light or anything like that. But there are some similarities in some degrees. I think Dable could be an intriguing hire down there. So I'm interested to see how how things work with them. But like you said, there are so many great prospects from a coaching perspective. I wouldn't call any of them sure fire like elite coaches. They're, they're historical figures. They're going to have success with the team because they know what to do. And they know the type of coordinators to surround themselves with them. They know the type of process. But it's not like we're getting some sort of up and come or Ben Johnson type coach. I did think the last point on this was Bishadi's comments yesterday about what he's looking for in a coaching higher potentially for the Baltimore Ravens and how he's sort of looking for a coach who was a upcoming coach a few years ago, who went to a bad team because there was an opening and didn't have

9:31a lot of success there. There's a few guys that you can look around the league and say, Hey, this sort of fits the bill for what he's talking about. And I actually do think that that's a great, especially in the 2026 cycle. It's a great way to look at things. It is about as well thought out as any, I would say, OK, to the games this weekend, you were telling me off air. You don't have a side or total or prop yet. You haven't dived in yet to these. But what's the one that intrigues you the most of these four matchups? Well, if you just look on the surface, the two games on Saturday, you've got an offensive mind ahead coach versus a defensive mind ahead coach. And then the two games on Sunday, you've got two defensive mind ahead coaches going head to head in the Houston, New England game. And you got two offensive mind ahead coaches going head to head in the latter game. And all the totals are sort of reflecting that right. The lowest total is the defensive mind of coaches going head to head. Highest total is the offensive mind of coaches going head to head. The other two, you got a defensive mind of versus an offensive mind ahead coach, focusing on that deep battle of the defensive mind ahead coaches.

10:32You know, what we saw from CJ Stroud last week, Monday night, obviously nothing to write home about. Certainly a performance where he looked a little frazzled a little rattled. You would think if you're now going on the road to take on Mike variables defense, you're going to want to be careful about how you're utilizing CJ Stroud lean into the run, try to make it so that you don't turn them all over and lose the game early on in that game for the Houston Texans. And then, you know, this Houston Texans defense looks like he can win games. It's outscoring opposing offenses in the playoffs. So if you're the Drake May led, New England Patriots, you also have to be a little bit careful with how you're executing things here because the game could flip on a dime with that defense. Sure, kid. And I agree with you that Houston Texans defense capable of winning games, as long as they get average performance from CJ Stroud, right? Just has to be baseline. Right. You know, can't be what it was the other night though. Good God. Warren always a pleasure. Enjoy the week. Appreciate it, man. All right. Thanks, guys. Warren sharp everybody at sharp footballs where you can find all this stuff. Sharp dot football. Sharp analysis dot com's got all of that.

11:39For more coming back. Todd Wischneve. Oh boy. College basketball and more. It's a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use. No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa in pro. A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network numbers game. Live from circa. Go Alexander. Kalei by the line in the his. Ladies gentlemen, you may know lots about this next guest, including that he is the star of Showtime's docuseries action from a for which he was plucked out of a crowd to star in.

12:46He's a South Point producers like who's that guy? He's something he's loud and funny. What you may not know about him is that he's one of the top 10 ATP ranked players in the world in tennis 300 pounds or over division. Todd Wischneve star of Wischneve Wednesdays and later today much to his surprise the megapod. It's Todd from Pittsburgh PA. How you doing man courtesy the progressive guest line was added. You just love changing the date on the megapod every single week. It's like, oh, Wednesday. Wait, no Tuesday. Wait, let's throw it in the grab back Friday Thursday Tuesday. Yeah. Well, we target. When studios tough to get into, Todd. It's not me. Let me just ask you about this real quick here before getting anything else. You have the rare NFL pre flop of bet. Is that correct? No, no, I said college basketball. Oh college basketball the rare pre flop. I'm sorry. You went out to our ear right as we got on air. Rare pre flop. Normally it's live betting. What's the pre flop today?

13:47I played first half under. I'm actually going to put it on my thing right now before everyone screams at me because I didn't put it up in time. I played Cincinnati. I played Cincinnati under first half. Cincinnati is a classic under team this year. You've got a terrible offense and a good defense like kind of like they were last year as well. But those are classic, classic under teams. They're eighth on defense. So they're elite defensively in the country. Okay, number eight. That's pretty damn good, right? But there are only 205th on offense. That's pretty damn bad. So tonight they're playing Colorado. Not exactly a defensive juggernaut and the numbers a little bit, you know, up there because Colorado likes to run and everything. But, you know, if they can put the clamps on Colorado's offense, first half under to me smells pretty good. So I took it under 71 first half. Do you regret? So you're not a pre flop guy. Typically, do you regret like I do not taken Kansas yesterday, plus the points, because that seemed like the perfect situation. And I hate myself for not playing it.

14:58Yeah, that definitely was a perfect situation. I kind of still like to play in game. I mean, a perfect example of why I like playing in game yesterday was Providence against Villanova. You know, Willie was talking about on the thread, how he liked Providence at home. And I kind of agreed with him pregame, getting two points. But I figured, let me watch the game. Maybe they'll get behind and I can get a juicer your number. And that's almost exactly what happened. They got down six in the first half. And I could get plus six and a half minus 120 and I took it. Of course, they ended up going down 12, but they end up only losing by six. So ended up winning because of, you know, waiting for the in game scenario. So, you know, I just feel like in these college games, you know, what you really gain by betting pregame, it's all the only time you really lose in that scenario is like what happened with Kansas last night where they just ran out to a huge lead. And there was no opportunity. But I feel there's way more opportunities when you wait, you know, to get even to get a better number on something you like pregame. Let's talk about the in game for a second. So famously, you were just scorching on fire, whatever expression you want to use in game college hoops.

16:04130 units to the positive. And again, these are not, these are not. I was I was up behind. I was up. I finished the thought, Todd. We're getting there. Sorry. I'm sorry. Not multi unit bets. These are all flat. One unit bets. He's up 130. And it has cooled off now. Right. As you, as you were quick to say there. Any explanation was this inevitable? Is this the time of year that it is most likely to happen? What's your whole take on that? I really don't think so. I just think that, you know, when you run that hot for that long, I mean, for 800 bets, I was like 62%. It was ridiculous. It was almost like it was like 503 hundred and 800 bets. You're ultimately, you're going to have to slow down sooner. And I kept telling you, I was like, guys, this is not sustainable winning 62% is just ridiculous. You know, so, you know, I'm not surprised. I mean, I was as high as 129 units now. And then I was as low as 110 now. I'm right around 117. So, you know, it was inevitable. It was going to be a slow down. But I don't really think it's.

17:05You know, we're in conference play, but look, the numbers are still the numbers. They're slowing the game down a little bit, but that's going to be reflected in the numbers as well. You know, so. But there's no, there's no behavioral things at the ends of games where coaches have shifted the way they're like, there's no foul fests all of a sudden. They're still playing it the same way. I mean, you see crazy stuff even before. I mean, there was a game. The team was down 13. I think Illinois was down 13 in November. And they were fouling in the last 30 seconds, because they couldn't believe they lost the game. So I just think it. It just depends on the team. It depends on the situation. You know, I don't really think it has anything to do with that. But you know, there are some really nice scenarios now, especially for once you really understand who the teams are. Because at this point, we know who teams are. You know, Michigan State is a defensive jug or not. Okay. So you watch the first half of the game yesterday. They're playing Indiana. I think it was 3932 at the break or something like that. I'm like, this is a classic Michigan State, going to strangle them on defense in the second half.

18:10And it's exactly what happened for actually Indiana scored a ton of points early in the in the first half up to about the 11 minute market at 21 points already. So I thought I was in trouble. Then of course, Indiana goes six minutes with no points. So when you you can find these scenarios, another one, a good one at halftime last night was Clemson. Another really good defensive team. If you configure out teams, this is for like half time. It's really good defensive teams who are winning like at home. And you, you, it looks like it's forecast for a double digit win. They're going to strangle the hell out of the, out of the other team. Another example, like I said, was Clemson BC last night, especially in games that were played slow in the first half. There's no reason for them to speed up in the second half. I mean, unless the game gets way out of control becomes open gym. But I'm saying, you know, you're up six, seven points. You know, Boston College, I believe they were losing 39, 27, something like that. Clemson's just going to strangle the hell out of them. They're not going to score. You know, so even last night on one, I lost.

19:14St. Mary's was on the road at San Francisco up 42, 28 at the half. And I played San Francisco under 65 and a half, not that they wouldn't get another 37 and a half point. Typically, that's a game. St. Mary's just strangles the life out of you. What happened? San Francisco scored every possession. And I still had a chance at the end because they went cold from like the five minute mark to the one minute mark. I hit a three with 45 seconds to beat me. But the point that I'm trying to make is if you can find good defensive teams that are winning at half time. They're and they're playing slow. They're unlikely to allow that other team back into the game with a high scoring second half. What it's I've never asked it out of you this way. But as you because you have over a thousand people who are following your picks. What is the thing that you have noticed the most as the. I don't want to use the word complaint because that overstates it. But what's the thing that they sort of miss out on those is the fact that they don't have enough outs to play some of these that they played about of not getting the number that you're giving out because it's an in game. What what is the answer to that?

20:16Yeah, I would say that that's the that's the biggest thing. You know, you have to have at least three or four outs to check at these commercials to see, you know, to get your best in game number. And then a lot of people don't have the late games because a lot of the books will shut down the late game close game under at the like five or six minute mark and you can't get those four minute ones. So you got to find books that have that, you know, who are who are laying them like fandals laying them all the way down. You know, like two and a half minutes sometimes. Of course, it's hard. It's hard to get a bet off at fandals. But the, you know, for any decent amount of size. But the you got to just find more books that have stuff, you know, and they're out there. But they're they're not as, you know, widely available. Some people like they're in Florida. Oh, we have his hard rock. And I'm like, OK, well, there's nothing I can do. I'm doing this for everyone, not just for you, you know, but that is I was I was saying I was because I was talking about your stuff a couple of weeks ago, and I was saying that's the thing you learn about. Haven't you have to have the multiple outs and then you will learn as you do this, which outs offer which kinds of bets and which at certain limits. And so you start to figure out where the go to is are on on all these different kinds of bets. Some people won't offer team totals at halftime, right.

21:31You know, some people don't know for the late bets. And that's a great example. The team totals is a great example because not everybody has the team totals. Yeah. OK. And then just to talk about Kansas yesterday crushing Iowa state. I asked this of Greg Peterson earlier in the same way that I asked Matt Cox about Michigan, having lost to Wisconsin. Are you worried at all about Michigan and how an Iowa state now being knocked out from the ranks of the unbeaten. Or do you still think they are top of the heap. Both of those both of those squads. Yeah. Or is, and what about Vandy and Nebraska who are undefeated. Do you treat them seriously as title contenders. I really like Vanderbilt a lot. As far as the other teams go. I mean, remember you caught in the first year they lost like four out of six in the middle of January. These teams are going to lose games on the road in good conferences. It happens. You know, these are good teams on the road. So that doesn't surprise me at all. You know, if this goes on for, you know, six weeks and I'll be concerned, you know, but I still think those, those teams are still really, really good.

22:33And, you know, Vanderbilt. I love Vanderbilt. Although they beat me on Saturday. I had over 88 and a half on a pregame team total and they had 53 and a half. Somehow couldn't get home. But, you know, in general, Vanderbilt's been very strong. Who's the team that conventional wisdom that most people aren't thinking of that you think could win a title realistically? What's like the lowest team on the total goal that you think has a shot legit if they get on a run? I don't know. Maybe Florida. Florida, then what he really seems to be talking about, you know. I mean, I wouldn't put them in my tops, but, you know, a low energy Todd wish and everybody who's still fighting off a cold. I'm still fighting this sickness. I mean, I'm trying my best out here. I'm going back on a numbers game at Visa. A numbers game on Visa. These sports betting network. We're getting ready for big games. 60 with a big deal. The match saves $60 off a Visa and Pro annual subscription when you sign up using Probo Code ANG.

23:37ANG as in a noble giant. Become a Visa Pro annual subscriber. Bet smarter all year long with full access. Short daily best bets from Visa and Hosting guests real-time draft Kings and Circuit betting splits. AI powered prop tools and match analysis 24-7 video and full show replays on the Visa and Watch app plus all our betting guides and expert picks for these Super Bowl and upcoming March madness. Don't miss out on this big game deal. Visit Visa.com slash subscribe and use promo code ANG. To save $60 on a Visa Pro annual subscription today, that's VSIN.com slash subscribe. On Twitter, Jason Age 11 says to me, Gilly, be nice to Toddy. You still have a megapod to do today. Yeah, but you can't bring the energy level down. You can't do that. Yeah, I appreciate it being on. I've done this show with a third arm sticking out of my neck before. That's how I just say that as I walked out. I'm just trying to imagine what that would look like. You've got to tough it up, man. Maybe I could be accused of the opposite. Maybe I shouldn't have shown up for some of the same things. Yeah, there's a few. Yeah, you've touched it out too much.

24:38Tough to have too much of these. You know, like trivia question we got? Yes. I did think about it. Yes. I don't think I have the answer, by the way. Because this goes back. Because there was a specific, the question was from, I'm going to get the name right. Sorry if I've already forgotten. Ray Joseph, can you guess the last duo to win both MVP and offensive player of your while playing on the same team? And I said. The greatest show on turf, right, with Kurt Warner and Marshall Falk. But there have been many, many times where it was the same person to win both MVP and offensive player, but that's not what he's asking. He wants a duo. Okay, so I'm going to throw some options for you. Okay. Drew Breeze and Michael Thomas. Because I remember Michael Thomas won an offensive player of the year award. I don't know if I don't think Drew Breeze won MVP. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. This is where I'm like, I'm trying to think of one award and, you know, and see if there's someone else. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. But I don't think McCaffrey was. Yeah, I don't, I don't associate those two together. Me either either.

25:38I was just going through like team by team. Like Mahomes and Tyree Hill, but Tyree Hill never won an offensive player of the year award, right? No, Mahomes, I think, would win both of them. I think he won both of them, like, a year at least. So there's no, like, I think Peyton Manning did that back in the day, but like, I don't think Brady probably did. Like Peyton Manning, like, I don't, did I, Reggie Wayne ever get home or anything? I don't think so. For offense, in fact, I, in fact, I wonder if Warner and Falk are the only duo to have ever done it. It might be, that was a really good guess by you. Yeah. And I'm like, you know, Tom Brady, Randy Moss. They didn't give offense player that you're in a mosque, did they? I don't think so. That's where I'm like, I'm just coming up with more recent options. Then you got to go back to it. Yeah, I think what you brought up was great. And then I'm otherwise I'm going to like Steve Young, Jerry Rice. I mean, some of the Cowboys combinations in the 90s. Yeah. It's the best guess is I have. I'm going to look it up. Yeah. I didn't want to look it up. I'm going to look at the answer. Thank you for the trivia question. We appreciate it. Usually we do the outgoing trivia, but we appreciate the incoming as well.

26:39Let's continue with these golf and tennis props, because I don't think we did them justice. We left off with one of your golfs, which is to win a major, to win one major this year. Scotty Sheffler is minus 150. Now, there was a shop here in town who had it at minus 110. Earlier. I don't know if they still have it at mine. Yeah, when he that. Well, so I just sort of did the hack math. And I get I did it on the fly. So I hope I'm I hope I'm right about this. But minus 110 would have been a heck of a bet. Because if you if you say to yourself, well, let's average out. I mean, easy one. Just say it's four to one every every major, right? Yeah, I think I even did it. What was my math that I did? I got to check out here. I even made it little I think I did four to one or did I did plus three 50. Anyway, with the point being that it's basically minus 110 ends up being a good bet minus 150. I don't know if that is. Yeah. I wouldn't bet that. Yeah.

27:39I honestly, this is this is one else. I just wouldn't bet any of these. There's too much that can where these guys form his at in a golf season is such a roller coaster. Uh, you know, injuries do occur. Long way of saying I would just be attacking this tournament by tournament. I don't the one that like if I had to bet one of these, we're going to play that whole game. Russell Hanley nine to one. Russell Hanley had a great season last year. I was betting him a ton. I don't really think he's going to fall off at all this year. I put Scottie Sheffler at plus 410 when I did the math on this breach or just average plus 410. Obviously, it's going to be shorter for the masters. Right. Yeah. Minus 110. I bet it. But this is like, you know, this is like me bringing up the eagle one. Right? Yeah. You're not a big golf fan. If you just want to bet a ticket like that and sit on it. Well, you know, you might not get into that. That is that is the nice thing about the Sheffler bet. John Goulet and I were talking about this last week over at the win. Everybody John Goulet who said, for him, betting the Sheffler prop allows him to not over react to every Sheffler up and down during a major.

28:40Yeah. Which I kind of like that reasoning, right? Because it's then you can have this ticket and you could just sort of relax. If he's down, you know, you're like, you, if you don't have the ticket, you jump in when he's down in a tournament. You're always like looking for the right moment. This just allows you to chill and just be like, oh, he'll get there. I'm just not going to follow the ups and downs. So I get that. Any other golf props you have here? Yeah, I got really fun. What I really wish they posted these win totals for more golfers have win totals tournament win totals. I like it. It's awesome. This is genius by draft Kings. I wish they did more of these Scottish Sheffler five and a half over by this one 25 over juiced. That's right. So this is okay. We're already back Roy two and a half under two and a half minus one. 70 Tommy Fleet would one and a half under one and a half minus one 55. The only three guys listed. So just built them all out. You agree with what Rick Gaiman said yesterday. Tommy Fleet would quietly the third best player in the world. Yeah. Yeah. I think after the last season. Yeah, he's probably right there. Sheffler McElroy Tommy Fleetwood.

29:42What would you bet on those? Well, this one's fabulous. I mean, at first you got like the first thought I had was. Sheffler five and a half. It's a big number for a guy who doesn't. You know, like there's some of these guys that play way more events than others, right? Sheffler's kind of gotten into that mode of you know, kind of know what his schedule is roughly going to be. So. And now he hits the ball farther. And now he hits the ball further. So I tried. I went and did like the homework on this, right? You know, but you know how many wins. Scottish Sheffler had last year. This this prop is built around it. He had six. I was to say five. How many PGA tour events he played in last season? 14. 20. Okay. Still. He won six of 20. So he's only teed it up 20 times in a one six of those. This is where I'm like, I can't get bet the under on a Scotty Sheffler. It's ridiculous. Like in theory, he could play more, but even more than that. Rory Tommy Fleetwood. I mean, look, Fleetwood has the, I agree with what Rick said yesterday.

30:42I'm one of those guys that just because Fleetwood won and finally won a vet last year. I don't think that's all me. All of a sudden means where he's going to launch into four wins in 2026. Just what we talked about yesterday. It's really hard to win a damn golf tournament. So like I'd say it would be lean under on all of these guys, I think. But Tommy Fleetwood, even before he was winning tournaments, was always the guy for. He knew that there was always one round tournament where he could crush the field. Oh, absolutely. So yeah, it was easier. It's not like it's out of nowhere. Yeah. The other market that was up at draft Kings that I got confused on that. I got very excited about to win or to bet was that it was, it's labeled first time winner. I didn't really read the. I like this. The subtitle though. Yeah. The subtitle of the next first time winner on PG. That's a big distinction. Very big. Because I was like, Rico, how he's tend to want to get tend to want to just bet that for him to win a tournament this year. That'd be fantastic. The next first time. Next first time winner. But they're careful read this because like I went to Caesars today.

31:43They have odds up for for just for it to for golfer to win their a their first event. Oh, see. Okay. I like that better. So he's giving the names on that one. First time for it's see. Oh, you don't have it. It's up on Caesars, right? That's that to me would be an interesting market. I did go to look for Rico. Holy though, and he was not listed unfortunately. But like a lot of a lot of those were like some of the guys that I was looking at. You're talking like even money minus one a like even minus 120, which I got no interest in doing that. Hmm. What about again? My guy Marco Penge. What is it? Penge. Penge from yesterday. He's the short shot on the next first time winner. Plus a 50. Oh, he is. I think that's a little aggressive. But what is it? I want to know what he's on the. Can win one. I don't think he was. I don't think he was listed on. There was a couple names that I was like looking for. I don't. It's not like you don't list unlike sort of like a. Circa or South Point or Westgate. It's not like you can walk up to Caesars and make a request. Yeah. We know it guy, but yeah. We do know a guy. Yeah, maybe we can make a request.

32:43Get him on there. Rico Holy would be honestly probably the only one I'd bet I was. Oh, there is odds to win first career PGA to our event. Yeah. Marco Penge. Plus a 50. Rico Holy. 10 to 1. Michael Thorbjordson. He's another one of golfer's to watch. 12 to 1. And then everybody else after that. But again, I labeled this wrong. This is the next. The next first time winner. This one's the next correct. Yeah. That's the next. For the juicy prices. Both the Hoi guards were on there at Caesars at like minus 110. Rasmus a little shorter. Think they were the same price. But yeah, usually he is. Oh, he was a little shorter on this one. Yeah. Yeah. Both at 18 to 1 here. Eric. Eric Cole. If you're betting any of these. I'll throw out two names. Eric Cole and Rico Holy. If you are looking for just the win a tournament this year market. Two reasons. Eric Cole. Different reasons with each guy. Eric Cole plays all the time. Gil. He's the sun jam of a few years ago. Where he just plays every tournament possible. So, okay, if you're looking for odds to win a tournament.

33:45You want the guy that's going to tee it up the most. Those times, right? So, like his game is a little bit of a mess last year. But he's one that I would recommend. And then Rico, Rico Holy. I know we'll talk about him. I'm sure of long shots today. Out later this afternoon. Back in action. I know Wes brought it up on by the books earlier. Rico Holy is like one of the best ball strikers. Top three ball strikers on the tour. And it's for what he does off the team. Approaches. Amazing. The problem is the guy can't put it. Well, like, you know, you just get one of those tournaments to get some puts go in. Yeah. It's our first ball striker's bingo square this year. Straight. Sony open next on a numbers game. A numbers game. Back on a numbers game. Live from Circa. Kill. Kelly. We get tweets being the book. David Bennett. He's got a Miami 100 to one to win the Nadi. Uh, $340 to win 34K. Nice for David Bennett.

34:45Go. He says any advice on what to do? Well, again, the clean hedge is to lay the money line on Indiana. But nobody wants to lay that money line on Indiana, apparently. He's got these Miami tickets. So they don't think in creative ways to do it. But that's the, that's the deal when you're an eight and a half point dog. I'm also glad you keep bringing that up. Like, it's just, I mean, hey, if you got a ticket like that. Yeah. What's the, what's the problem with lane minus three? Lock it in, baby. Yeah. Jeff Levine. Kill. Did you listen to Biscotti's press conference yesterday? Uh, Biscotti press conference. If not, please do. It's well worth a full listen. I've convinced. He's subtly indicated to Lamar. Would we put in the market if he did not agree to restructure his cap? Agree. I'll be honest with you, Jeff, I did not hear that portion of it. The only sound by that I kept hearing was him being told live during his press conference that Tomlin had stepped down in Pittsburgh. And then somebody said, is he a candidate for the Baltimore job? To which Biscotti very cleverly responded.

35:47Well, if Harbaugh takes the Pittsburgh job. Yeah. Uh, or they do the, by the way, I'll add to that or they do the three, uh, the three team deal. Where Harbaugh goes to Cleveland, where he's from, or at least Ohio. Uh, step not step. I was at, uh, Kevin's to Fansky goes to Pittsburgh and then Tomlin goes to Baltimore. There's the three way deal. Isn't amazing. All I'm joking. Obviously, but isn't amazing that to Zach Taylor, the only remaining coach in the, in the AFC north of all the coaches. Zach Taylor, but no, Jeff, I did not see that part about Lamar. I will have to go back and, uh, and listen to it. Let's recap all the bets real quick before we get to, uh, the Sony open. Um, again, I am on two games this weekend. I'm on the Niners plus seven and a half against Seattle. We'll see if Fred Warner comes in place for the Niners. I just think it's a little too. I know what happened in week 18, but Trent Williams didn't play in that game. And I think he's like a way bigger factor than people give him credit for. Texans plus three at the Patriots Sunday and the first of two.

36:50I like that Texans defense up against Drake. Man, that Patriots offense of CJ Stroud could just give him anything in this game. Anything besides what he looked like the other night. I still can't get over that picky through. Where it's like, okay, you have to hear your choices, CJ. You can run. He's awful. You can run. It's like there's clear field in front of you for the first down. If not more. You can throw it out of bounds. You can eat it. And then any of those work, the option of throwing it though into coverage was not the good one. There's absolutely no part of me after we sat here on Monday morning. And I was ripping apart Herbert. No part of me that thought we were going to see a worse quarterback performance at night. Yeah. What do you got? It was terrible. Okay, NBA tonight. I do have one Raptors Pacers under 223 and a half. Both of these teams quietly playing some pretty good defense here. Since December 27th, Toronto 9th in defensive rating, Indiana 12th over that time. And Indiana cannot score the basketball.

37:50Also a lot of undersmen going both these teams ways. You can imagine no RJ Barrett, no pertle, ingram with a banged up hand still for Toronto offensively. I think points are going to be tough to come by. I believe I just saw a manual quickly pop up on the injury report to yes. He did it. Pacers getting a little bit healthier. But yeah, like the under in this game. So that only NBA play for me tonight is that Raptors Pacers. I should mention Drew got home with his Oklahoma city bet yesterday. Yes. Like the points versus the spurs or in playoff parlance. The OKC Thunder avoided the sweep. Right. And now put all the pressure back on the spurs and game six. Yeah, right. Yeah. You know what? No, he talked about it yesterday. Yeah. Of course, they say they go back home game five. And if they can win that, then they put the pressure on spurs and game six. Watch the majority of that game. At no point, though, killed that I like. I don't think when you get set betting a sport like we do with the ones that we kind of special. There was no part of me ever during that game. It was like, man, I really wish I bet the Thunder.

38:51But I was so okay. Like mentally making that decision the night before that I wanted nothing to do with that game. But good on true for getting a moment. Good on Drew for bringing up on the show because I went over to yesterday. And I fell this weekend. See, Hawks, I'm laying six. I did buy off a little bit with Niners plus seven and a half. That not line is coming down here today. A lot of sevens on the board. Now in Seattle, San Francisco. And then I am on Patriots laid the two and a half. Josh Allen over eight and a half Russian tab. Tempts. Shout out to Will Hill. Did tell him on that one and bills plus 250 to win the AFC. They prevent myself loathing bet. Exactly. Yep. From Kelly. Will Hill earlier on the show. Josh Allen over eight and a half Russia. From him. 49ers Seahawks under 44 and a half from Willie. Texans Patriots under seven and a half first quarter. Interesting little bit there. And then the Bears plus the points. So he's got to play in every single one of these games. Prop. Total. Prop total if you will first quarter. And then the aside with the Bears. There you go.

39:51From Will. After Will. We had on the show. Did we have any more? Yeah. From Cincinnati. Colorado under 71 the rare. Preflop college basketball bet from Toddy. Cincinnati. Colorado under 71 first half. Okay. Which brings us to the Sony open. Yes. First golf tournament of the year because the century was canceled last week. Yeah. Go through this rather quickly. We do have long shots coming up today. We'll take the time. Definitely pulled the pods. It's me. You and I are doing a bunch of work this week. Got long shots coming back today. They'll be out in the afternoon. Megapod today with Cleve TA. That'll be. Well, we'll do it live on Twitter. We'll do it live. We'll do it live on Twitter. So live stream on Twitter. And then on the pod tomorrow. Yeah. While I'll get it up by the morning. We're down like four dandies right now. So it's really things are tougher. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. Down for a day. And then tomorrow the Australian open podcast with Drew Dinsick and Zach Cohen. Hopefully Zach can do it as well.

40:53Remember Drew's power ranking. It's top three favorite Australian lines. And according to Kelly Drew's power ranking is top. I'm going to be very disappointed. This whole podcast and I don't hear that. We'll get into that as well. I'm sorry. Yes. Sony opens. So yeah, that's the podcast schedule. At least for these two guys. Yes. Exactly. Yeah. Sorry. We don't usually have days like the next few. And with a couple of these pods returning. Want to make sure we definitely promote those. All right. Sony open. Like it's good setup. We didn't have the century last week. So this is the first tournament of the season. I know I did get a couple of tweets. Like people still confused about that. Yeah. There was not a century tournament this year. Doesn't sound like that. We're back. Sounds like this could be the last year of the Sony open as well. A prime rule. App the new guy in charge of the PGA tour. I like a lot of things that he's doing. I like the way he did with Capka and kind of setting up that program to bring guys back. He's put an emphasis on he kind of wants to shorten the schedule. It sounds like Gil moving forward. Just, you know, we talk about this all the time with football and how many games you're playing. Just emphasize tournaments a little bit more.

41:53And each one becomes a little bit more important with the less that you have. So it sounds like Sony open. Could be on its way out for people handicapping this at home. Reminder this is a part 70 while I. Is a very predictive course. Fifth most predictive course actually on the schedule. So even though it's the first event of the year. Very much you can this is one of the tournaments. I probably lean into recent winners and recent or past performances here more than. More than most tournaments throughout the season because you get because it is the first we're going to see these guys. And it does have that correlation to past success. One that I take into account a little bit more. If you're doing some of your own staff modeling though this is a part 70. It's got narrow narrow wish fairways. It's not too crazy and not very penal rough or anything like that. It does have some major dog legs. It kind of what we call point to point golf or you're going to hit a some of the bombers off the tee. You're going to be limited. You got to find a place in the fairway and then you're going to hit an approach shot from roughly the same distance ever as everybody else. And then this becomes in a putting contest where we've seen some very very low scores in years past.

42:58Nick Taylor won this last year at 16 under he was 110 to one. So like you saw me bet during the fall. The start of the golf season is very similar for me as the end of the golf season. End of the golf season. You don't have as many guys big time names and as many guys playing every week. The start of the season. I don't know if you do the same thing with tennis skill but start of the season. We were I rely on so much kind of data and how much these guys are playing well recently. This is kind of always more. Pick a few outright. So I'm not going to go heavy with the top 20s or the matchups or anything like that has a manifest. Exactly. The data hasn't manifested need a little bit of time for that. So I've got four outright bets. I haven't added any placements. I'll probably be playing these guys top five or top 10 as well. But for right now only four outrights on the card that call him or a cow a 22 to one. See who Kim 22 to one Chris Kirk 45 to one and Nico etch of Maria 46 to one. Talked a little bit about more to cow last yesterday with Rick gaming.

43:58He's still I think a lot of people thought he had a terrible season last year. You go back and look at some of the numbers. Well, he did off the tee and on approach. He was still one of the best on PGA tour. The putter was just a disaster. He has not played this tournament much recently. But the two times he's teamed up here was a T7 in 2021 and then the year before that at T21. So he has had some success here. See who came. I would not expect I was going to be betting at this number. But this is a guy who really solid fall golf. Gil even into the winter at T4 at the RSM. He was third at the Australian open of golf last month. So he's one of these guys. It's actually been more active recently than most of these guys are going to tee it up. So see who came. I did buy in at 22 to one Chris Kirk. I played him a bunch down the stretch last year if you're following along. He's got a ton of history at this course. A third a T2. A second place finish like him this week in the Nico etch of Maria. Finish second here last last year T12 in 2023. Really good putter.

44:58I like him a lot this week at 46 to one for a long shot play. All right. Good luck. Thank you, sir. Let's get the seasons started right. It's called long shots being recorded later today with both West and Matt. Yeah. Okay. Proper points. Next. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these. Enjoy from these.