A Numbers Game | January 14, 2025 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story to Alex now. Swandles, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill Ivexanter, Gon Fiesen. Our number two of a numbers game at Visa, these sports betting at werefeason.com, Game Plus, Ihard Radio, YouTube TV, Series X of Channel 1, 58, Skill Ivexanter. Kill it, Bidley. Produced a number nine, so much more than a producer, alongside. Mm-hmm. Did you do it over there, man? I'm preparing a special segment for you. The later, later in the show. We can do whatever. What was it right now? I think I've got it. What was it? How special is it? It's, uh, it's power rank. All the dandies at Fiesen. Okay. We got, we got daddy's smife feeling good today for daddy Higgins. Right. So I, I just started thinking yesterday. Man, I know, I've met more dandes or dandies at Fiesen than I ever knew in my life before. Yeah. So. What are my choices? Higgins, smife. Power rank these. We got smife. We got Higgins. Of course, we have the legendary Danny Burke. Oh, Danny Burke.

1:00Yep. Legendary Dan Miller. Uh-huh. Former producer here. Yeah. And maybe my, one of my favorite Twitter follows. Uh, and then Dan Strauss, who helps out with a lot of our podcasts and YouTube stuff. Higgins won because he sat on desk with me before. Has to be Higgins won. Uh, the YouTube fence, the others. The YouTube guy who I've never met is definitely two just because I'm sucking up to him. Yep. You're playing the political game right? Strauss is two. Yep. Smife is three because he's right here and he could shut us off. Exactly. Uh, and then, uh... There was a correct order of this and you're nailing it so far. The others are who? Burke Miller and... Burke and Miller. Burke and Miller. Yep. Uh, Burke, because I know him better. Miller five. That's the... Good job. Well done. Thank you. Correct order, I would answer the exact same way. Danny Smife, maybe you can move up. Maybe you can move up. That's right. We'll see. Start threatening us with cutting us off here and maybe you move up. We get tweets being in the book. The numbers, guys. We have to ask Greg Peterson. But more impressive than the 2250 straight days of the podcast.

2:00I think that means he's reviewed every college basketball game played on those 2250 days. If that's true, it's no wonder they call him hoops. Listen, here's the thing. Every Greg Peterson segment. I am tempted to just drill down on the... Just unbelievable American treasure that Greg Peterson is. 2250 straight days of college basketball podcasting. About a even longer streak of running at least 12 miles a day. Talking about his girlfriend. But I just want him to feel like a respected person that he deserves to be treated as. Otherwise, I'll just go side show on him every time. Oh, the basketball knowledge is ridiculous. I just sit here every time and I want to be like first four off the bench for Santa Clara. Name him now. I used to do that. I used to do it when I would be like... What? I would go Abilene Christian. Go. Yeah. And then he would go on. And he would just vomit out 20 minutes of it. And I realized at the end of it, he could be lying to me. I wouldn't know. There's that too. There's that too. Dan Groschell. Dan Groschell. Oh, Dan. Oh, Dan.

3:00Oh, see. Number six, Dan. He said University of Wisconsin. Oh, Claire. Favorite cereal, fruity pebbles. We required last week. We said maybe people should come on like Monday night football guests and do that. He said University of Wisconsin. Oh, Claire. Favorite cereal, fruity pebbles. Since this is not baseball season yet, Greg has plenty of time to learn Latin while he's running. Then he can come on Angie as the Latin correspondent. He teaches all how to pronounce legal words. There's that. Brian Young and notorious guns. I don't know who's more passionate about a subject. Greg on college hoops are Kelly on not wanting to read the Omaha steak ads so early in the show. Keep up the great work. Yes. Starving now. Thank you. Derek Gwynn. Our buddy from a Southern Miss says in a playoff pick him $100 buy in. He says he's in a playoff pick him $100 buy in. I think 50 people are in it. I went five in one. Hope it to keep it going. Who's y'all's best pick so far this weekend? Oh, God. You're doing well on your own. Derek five and one. I'll tell you what mine is. We're about to do the whip around. That's coming up. And Michael at Mike. Mike K4561 never had a losing season. Why are we just hearing about this now with Tom looking forward to cleave TA on the megapod today.

4:00So am I. Looking forward to it. Real quick before we go into the old whip around. We do this at the beginning of the press. We also do it before the divisional round because two other teams are brought into this. The corkiest of all numbers game traditions are a little feel goal comparison feel goal kicker or place kicking comparison with all these games. Before we get into these game by game, just as a sort of snapshot of. You know, all these games. We always get we always get one or two tweets. We were like, can't believe you're comparing kickers. Think about how many of these NFL games come down to this. Right. Brandon McManus. Anyone? Anyone? I'll loop. Anyway, what's interesting about this is that maybe the three best kickers in the game. Cam little. Chris Boswell. Cameron Dicker. They're all gone now. So now it's like a even more level playing field and just the snapshot of all the kickers in the league that are still alive. Just to see if there's any built in advantage. I would say game one here Kelly. Not really so much of an advantage. I think it's pretty much a.

5:00Matt Prader versus Will Lutz. Bills and Broncos. I think it's pretty even. Prader 18 for 20. On the season field goals one of two from 50 plus. Miss three extra points was perfect last week in the playoffs, by the way. Two of two, including a 50 yarder. Hit all of his extra points. Will Lutz. Solid from 50 plus four of six from 50 plus this year. Never missed an extra point. That's kind of a wash, I think, between those two guys. Prader proved that he's over the injury. Game two is a little interesting. San Francisco versus Seattle. Eddie Piniero versus Jason Myers. Eddie Piniero has missed one field goal all year. One field goal try. And that was from 50 plus he's six of seven from behind 50. He's perfect inside of 50. But he has missed four extra points curiously. But Piniero has been a revelation for the for the Niners post Jake Moody. He's been awesome. And then Jason Myers is particularly great from beyond 52.

6:01Nine of 12 from 50 plus, even though he's missed seven tries this year. So I would see even like slight advantage Piniero in that game. Slight advantage Niners. Again, looking for just incremental differences between the teams. As far as the Texans and the Patriots on Sunday, first game on Sunday. Kyby Fairbaren. Nine of 13 50 plus is amazing. If we took these stats back 30 years, our heads would explode. We's nine of 13 50 plus. That's impossible. That other guy six of seven and the other guy's nine of 12. Fairbaren's nine of 13 50 plus hasn't missed an extra point. Um, 44 or 48. Andy Borragales though. What a season. Four of four 50 plus. 27 of 32 overall on the year. I want to jump in on this one. I didn't think to look double check these until right now. Because I was like, what's like 44 for 48. Field goals, only 28 extra points. What a great example. Yes.

7:01Of the contrasting offenses that we have going up against each other. What a great point. Fairbared 48 field goal attempts. Only 28 extra point attempts. Borragales 32 field goal attempts. 55 extra point attempts. Excellent point. That's the real interesting part about that matchup. The Patriots get to the promised land and the Texans don't. I don't even know which ones are weirder. I feel like the. That many field goals and that little extra points is pretty tough to do. That is a bad. That tells you how much the offense is not getting in the end zone. I think the one that was the biggest reveal for me though. Was the grams and the bears. I did not realize how. Harrison Mevis has. I know he didn't play the whole season. He has missed one kick all year. Field goal or extra point. He's 12 of 13. Field goals. He's 39 for 39 extra points. Plus he was perfect in the playoff game. Two of two field goals. Four of four extra points. Harrison Mevis has missed one kick all year. And Cairo Santos is perhaps the most surprising to me. Four of six 50 plus 25 of 30 on the year.

8:03He has not missed an extra point. So again, to me, probably the biggest advantage of those four games is Pinero slide advantage over Myers. But again, we're just looking for for little bits to add to the conversation. There you go. Pinero is just my favorite at this point. So yeah. Because he was a kicker that was kind of we thought he was kind of done. I guess after he's used with Carolina. Been great for the Niners. Excellent point about Fairbrim versus Borgol. It's just in terms of you can you can get a great snapshot into their offense is just by looking at those stats. Man, actually the fairbrim will just jumped out to be first. I started to check it. Then I looked at the line below and I'm like, wait, that one's just as crazy. Just the opposite. All right. Let's start with these. The old NFL whip around. Let's do it. The guys check in on all the NFL line movement. Injury updates and get their thoughts on every game on the board. It's the Wednesday whip around. All right. Bills at Broncos is the one that starts it off on Saturday. What was that at the end? What did I just miss a step on something? Yeah, you're good. Bills at Broncos as we just mentioned.

9:04Bills down to three wide receivers. Three. Keon Coleman. Shakir. And whom I forget is the third one. Coleman Shakir and Samuel. Right. No, Curtis. Oh, Brandon Cooks. That's it. Those three guys. Oh, you were naming the ones who left. Yeah. Those are the last three guys. I guess this would be Broncos minus three on guessing lines. I was shocked that the bills were a tick of a favorite. It's a pick them at circa. The Broncos are now a tick of a favorite consensus wise, though, in this. And I, I think that's probably better. I, at least what I would have expected more than the bills and favorites. 45 and a half is the total. I do not have a bet in this game at all yet. You. I got distracted looking up. Sorry. Some of these, some of these line moves because they are, everything's been very slight so far this week. We really haven't seen much major. We're here on Wednesday already. Like you said, you broke that pick them. There's ones on either side. I don't really know. You think you think we're going to get that same kind of, we got late movement to Jacksonville

10:05last week. You think we get the same thing with Denver this week? My guess is I, I was going to say yes, but now I don't know. My guess would be if there's any, if there's any type of movement here on the, on the, on the side, it is going to be more towards Denver, but I wouldn't be shocked. I don't, I don't pretend to have an opinion on that. 45 and a half, 46 totals come down a little bit at a lot of shops, but not much, not, not anything consequential here. And over practice window opened up as well. That could be massive for a Buffalo thing, get him back here. Whether it's this week, probably more likely next week, something like that. But man, even just, I was going over the injury report yesterday, shavers at the ACL. We already talked about the wide receivers. We're so limited, Milano limited, Dalton concait limited, Harrison limited, Troll Bernard limited, Epidesda limited, all in practice yesterday. And then of course, you've got Josh Allen who's got about five injuries that he's been limited with. I, this is a game. I don't have a bet on.

11:05I will be tailing will on the over Russia times for Josh Allen. He did kneeled down, serves is fine to bring up. It's always nice if you can add on to it with that. But man, I just watching that game last week, it was, it's one of the few things that was working. It's Josh Allen, Josh Allen, Josh Allen, Josh Allen. You're going to get him outside the pocket, try to find a receiver open down, feel it. He's going to take off and run with it often as much as he can. I think what he did see last week, too, is you're at the point in the season. The health doesn't matter. Throw it out the way, Milano. Right, whatever injuries you got, you're still best plays to run Josh Allen, especially if you're at the goal point. Who do you think loves Josh Allen more? You were Haley Stidefeld. Probably me. Yeah. Yeah. Step aside family, friends, all of you. Speaking of limited practice, you know, who's a limited practice? Actually Fred Warner of the Niners. Yeah. You continue with that. Next on a numbers game right here at Visa. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use.

12:06No secrets. No fluff. Just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro. A numbers game on Visa. These sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis. Real time global betting information and alerts directly from the pros. It's the sharp place. Scan that QR code for more information. Sharp plays dot com. Check it out. We get sweet speed in the book. Tom Collins. Tommy Collins 99 telling me Curtis Samuel has now been removed from IR. He's eligible to play if elevated by the bill. So that is an update on their wide receiver. Death chart. That is correct. Yes. Prime time. Cowboys underscore one. He says yo. Hey, man. Have you been living under a rock gilly getting political again this morning with the Danny rankings?

13:08After watching. After watching the chargers do the playoff. Chargering one would think you'd learn your lesson. But no, you keep going to the well. Peace. Love, yo. I was like, what are you talking about? He goes, oh, political Danny. He says all of the chargers. I'm like, I brought up. It was the political answering had to be done. Had to be done. Yeah. Had to be done. JT. Greg Peterson's the best. Love listening to his breakdowns. And this is from Dell mind the gap radio who has put together. You know how they always people ask each other. Hey, if you had to live, if you had to go, if you had to have dinner with one living person or dead person, rank them, write that kind of thing. So Dell mind the gap radio has made his list request for dinner. Number one, William Shakespeare. He said, that's interesting. Really? That's who you'd pick. William Shakespeare. Two Jimmy Hendrix. Three A. Blinken. Four Albert Einstein and five Greg Hoops, Peterson. Wow. Greg Hoops, Peterson be a high on my list, too. You know what? I know Greg. Yeah. I'd have him hire on the Ellen that list.

14:08Yeah, I don't. Billy. What am I talking about? Billy Shakespeare. Billy Shakespeare. What's that it could be about? You're talking about it. It sounds fun for like five minutes. Not even. Not even. You guys have no idea how professional Gil Alexander is. I was crying. You had me crying coming back from this commercial break. Oh. You had me crying. I mean, this. Yes, please. I mean, the detail, the dream that you had last night. I'll tell you what. So I rarely remember dreams. Rarely. Really? So I'm having them. I don't remember them. But when I don't sleep well, which I think follows the science, right? Yeah. You tend to remember them. So I didn't sleep very well last night. The. I had this dream where I was framed for a murder. I was framed for a murder. This was this happened all night last night. I just love the. I love the drama. This was. This is. No, literally like someone. And someone put together. And I don't have no idea who I was framed to have killed. No idea. That detail was lost in the dream. You know, you know, you know, do you know how or where the murder occurred? Yes. A ledge to murder. Yeah, I was like in a gym. Wow. Right.

15:08And they have like a fake video footage, grainy footage of me doing it. Right. And it's like I shot someone or something. Is this what this new like Chris Pratt movies about? Is it like, aren't they like ripping off minority report? Do you see these previews at all? No, I'm not. It kind of sounds like this. Anyway, like this was like, I had to fight this. Like I had to, I was like, you know, it was, was fascinating about the dream though is. It's like all the kinds of people were in like, so, oh, my co-workers turned on me. So stormy was mad at me. You didn't say I was mad at you. I wasn't in this. The story was mad at you. The story was mad at you. Steph Curry was in the dream. He was on my side. But that was the line that got me. That was the line that got me. Steph Curry was on my side. And the delivery. He was on my side. He was on my side. He agreed with me. I didn't do it. He was on my side. He agreed with me. The interesting thing about the dream, if it hasn't been that riveting so far, is that within the dream, this is how amazing the human brain is, I started to question, right, because the, the pile on was so heavy that I started, I knew I didn't commit it, but I started to think to myself, maybe I did.

16:13All these people think I did it and they have the footage. Am I not remembering that I did this? But of course I didn't, because then we found discrepancies in the video, and I was exonerated. Good for you, man. Yes. I'm just picturing the... I remember Lee Trivino and happy Gilboard. They'd always just cut him. We'd be like, shake his hand. Like, what are you doing? I'm just imagining Stormy. That, that Stormy's part in all this. Just disapproving. It wasn't just her. I think JVT was in it, too. They were both like this guy. This guy. This guy. This guy killing people now. What are you going to do? No quick buffal and Denver. Yeah. How about for the trendy folks out there? How about the total has gone over in four of the last six Denver games and four of the last six Buffalo games? Overrishy teams. Is it the meaningful to you? No. Okay. Except for the trendy folks. San Francisco and Seattle have mentioned that Fred Warner limited practice yesterday. So the Niners could have their defensive stalwart, Fred Warner, the brains and the heart of that defense with them now.

17:14To what extent will he be? Will he be 100% probably not? But is 85% of Fred Warner better than 100% of others? Probably for all the injuries the Niners have had. And they have been decimated what a bit of possibly good news that is. As he could get on the field this week. It was originally thought it would be championship week that he could return for. But now it's been up to divisional round. And so this continues to toggle between the seven and the seven and a half. Though that's the story with this line. And right now here at circuit seven and a half reduced juiced on the Seattle Seahawks. I have Niners plus seven and a half total 44 and a half this ballgame. Yeah. Yeah. You and I are a little awful on this. I'll wait six on open with Seattle. Interesting to see how this plays out. Obviously we've seen these these teams meet twice before. Do have, you know, some different players that have been in out. I was it was a week one of the season though. And then the last week of the season these two teams played. So very different games. Trent Williams did not play in that last meeting. That's big. Obviously for San Francisco. You're out without George Kittle. I'm wondering.

18:14I think those are going to matter a lot this week. George Kittle being out. I'm assuming Nico Collins is out. I probably shouldn't assume that. But as a brutal. Yeah. He just. I think it would be pretty shocking if he was. Yeah, if he was back this week. Seattle. Look your best combo of defense and special teams left. San Francisco. You're one of your best offenses left second second best offense. I think it's what make what's make. That's what makes this matchup. So fascinating Seattle with that rushed defense as good as it is. Perdi's going to have to do a lot. No Kittle. I think that's what it comes down to. I think this looks a lot like we saw in week 18 between these two teams. I don't think the Seattle offense is going to have to do a ton. But this is the weakest defensive unit that's left in the playoff. So I like Seattle. I think it's probably by summer seven to 10. It's current number though. This would probably this would be a stay away for me. Oh, the other detail of the of the dream was it wasn't me who discovered the discrepancy in the video to reality. It was some like, you know, like goodwill hunting guy that just happened to work there.

19:17Who was like, Hey, yeah, you know, that's not right on that video. It's work. We're at the gym. Oh, at the gym. Yeah. So Gilles finally snaps on Fesik in the gym allegedly. Hashtag the dream Sunday. Fesik is in the background just complaining about Starbucks food still Sunday Texans. Patriots. Paters of favor by three. I have the Texans poster. So I'm on the Niners plus seven and a half. I'm on the Texans plus three in this ballgame against the Patriots. Probably no surprise if you've been following all year. I think the pay I have the Texans power rank number four. Patriots super easy super easy schedule all year. Aaron shots courted DVO a the third easiest schedule since 1978. And at least with the chargers. I did get that side of the ball. Right. They faced the Chargers defense. They ended up with 16 points and Drake may finally face some adversity. Well, this is the chargers on steroids now in the Texans. So with this is a fascinating game and tip of the cap. If Drake may can get by this Texans outfit. Tip of the cap to him.

20:17Clip. Uh, I just want to say Cliff stout for some reason. CJ Stroud close to out. She's played for the, uh, for the cowboys. CJ Stroud cannot be any worse than he was last week. Can he question mark? God, I don't think so. I don't think so. But man, this, uh, again, Nico Collins being away from him. This law offense is going to be limited. This Patriots defense has been pretty good. I like you. You said it right, though. This is another one where split. I laid two and a half of the Patriots on open. This is moving. If you like the Patriots, you should lay three now. Cause this is, it is heavy, heavily juiced threes or three and a half. Mainly out there now. Couple only a couple three and a half. But still, uh, that's what I would bring up. I, you're, you're right, though. We're going to learn a lot about Drake May in this game. I mean, this, you, you said it perfectly. Charge defense is great. This Texans defense is better. Right. So he, he had his problems in that game. It's not like he was perfect at all against the chargers. And this is going to be a tougher task. This is a me believing a bit in that that he's going to get it done. And it's nothing against the Texans defense.

21:19I think you can count on the Texans defense being there every week. But I Texans offense. It's not like they were great all season when Nico Collins was in there. I just have so little faith in them at this point. And the finale, of course, uh, between the bears and the Rams. And right now, so I mentioned yesterday, high supposed to be 14 degrees. That's without the windshield, though, right? A windshield supposed to make this a, uh, a negative Fahrenheit experience for both of these ball clubs with snow expected 30% of precipitation, 30% chance of precipitation on Sunday, where, uh, well, they've raised the degrees a little bit just to 18 degree high now. But that, of course, is earlier. That might be earlier in the day. So right around game time. Yeah, 14 degrees right now with a windshield expected negative. Flurries, if not more expected for this one, between the Rams and the Bears with a Rams of three and a half point favorites. 49 is the total man. Does that weather seem to play into the Bears hands?

22:20As remember, the Rams were, they Rams had the ball with a chance to beat the Eagles last year in the divisional round of the playoffs as well. Remember that in the snow in Philly. Now the Rams face an even colder proposition at Chicago at soldier field. You make a bet here. I got nothing man. This is Rams faced. Pro football focuses 21st ring defense last week against the Panthers. They go up against their 22nd ranked defense this week in the Bears. Bears have been feasting on the turnovers all year long. We've, you've all heard that. I think there's, I, I, I, I expressed some Bears love earlier in the week, right? I don't think I'm going to get to the window with it. The one that, the one thing keeps rattle around in my brain, Gil. There's a real good chance we look back at this game and say, man, was that a light Rams line? Yeah. I think there is that chance. Now, by the way, Chicago plus 22 in the regular season, epically fortunate. Remember, minus turnover differential this past Sunday. And still got by this past Saturday, I should say.

23:26A numbers game on FISA. These sports betting network. Back on a numbers game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gill Alexan, Kelly Bidlin, we get tweets, beat in the book. John Baldutsi. Let's name the title of the true crime show, true crime. Murder Mata and Mayhem. The Bethesda row kosher killer. He says, I guess the mean streets of Bethesda. Prime time, Cowboys underscore Cubs one. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. He says shame on Stormy and JVT for their host on host eight, doubting your innocence. PS just admitted killer. You did it. Do the time. Three Jack H, three, one, three, one. Oh, are we doing this today? Top five power ranking for dinner date? Uh, one antidarmus, two antidarmus, three antidarmus, four antidarmus, five antidarmus. Of course, this would take place at Gillie's sushi spot. Uh, Chad Lasso. Gill has a dream. An MLK day is this Monday coincidence. I think not. Gonna be a big weekend for you, my friend. Um, his dream a little more meaningful than mine. Jesse Welch, quick reminder. Just in case Kelly managed to get that out of his mind. Omaha Stakes. Uh, let's bring in Nick Whalen, because I got two things to talk to Nick about above all.

24:29Before we get to his thoughts on, uh, divisional round week. Nick, uh, joins us from roto wire, where he's a senior writer over there at roto wire. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen. Just substitute the number one for the letter L. And you will find Nick courtesy of progressive guests. Like how you doing, Nick? I'm doing all right, guys. You know, still still looking our wounds a little bit from Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville, of course, had a chance to win that game at home against Buffalo. So, you know, kind of going through the process of picking myself up off the mat and trying to get myself fired up for a divisional round that will not include my beloved jacks. Well, that was my, that was where I was going to go to first. What? Yeah. I mean, it was Planko, right? Like they could have easily won the football game just as, uh, just as well. What, as you look back on at that, what was the thing you'd like to have back in that game? You know, obviously I think you'd like Jacksonville to run the ball a little bit more than they did. You know, I go back and forth on the Trevor Lawrence element. You know, I, I did not think he was good overall in this game.

25:29I thought we saw a very shaky version of Trevor Lawrence early on where, you know, we threw the one interception in the first half. If you watch that game, it very easily could have been two or three. You know, felt like the bills were getting their hand on the ball, you know, every other pass for Trevor Lawrence. I think they had eight or nine passes defended in the game, which is a huge number. And he was lucky to come away with only two turnovers. But ultimately, you know, you, you had kind of the situation that you want it, right? And then you had a minute left, you know, your ball, all you really got to do is get it close to midfield with Cam little. And you feel like you have a chance to get a feel goal off and maybe tie this game and send it to overtime. You have the situation and, you know, not only do you not pay it off, but Trevor Lawrence just immediately throws a pick on the first possession or first play of that final possession. I should say so it's at the same time, you know, I'm excited about the direction of this team. I also saw, you know, some regression, I thought in a huge spot for Trevor Lawrence, you know, he wasn't terrible. He finished with 270 yards, three touchdowns. He did lead consecutive touchdown drives at the beginning of the fourth quarter. This wasn't some sort of top down disaster.

26:30But man, you just knew you needed him to play a clean game in order to beat Josh Allen, the way Josh Allen played, which I know the numbers were not overly flashy. He's had a lot better statistical games. I thought he was completely dialed in felt like he didn't miss a throw the entire afternoon. And in order back playing at that level, you just can't afford to turn the ball over twice. You can't afford to be making mistakes over the middle of the field. And, you know, for this to be a winnable game, even despite that, that's what's going to stick with Jacksonville. And the fact that this AFC is so wide open, right? It's easy to say, oh, they'll be back. They're moving in the right direction. That's probably true. We say it about teams every single year. And when you think you have some progression going for for franchise, it doesn't always move that way. So it's going to take a while. I think when we look back on how the AFC is shaping up for me to get over this potential opportunity that I think the Jaguars miss. Yeah. What one moment doesn't define any NFL game, but fourth and two at the Buffalo nine up seven to three. That was sort of the moment to me. Where Trevor's shin was down, right? And then you and then we have to endure that ridiculous hawk guy induced, you know,

27:37I'm not talking to Roma was on it from the jump from the jump, the moment that play played out, you was assuring everybody that that shin was down and he was all correct. You're right. You're right though. I mean, and that came after the fumble on the kickoff return, right? Like those, that's the break that you absolutely, absolutely need to capitalize on. Yes. So I can understand why they went for it. Liam Cohen said he would make that decision a hundred out of a hundred times. I understand it. It's easy to say now, you should have just taken the points. But man, that would have swung things, right? I mean, to put the bills in a 14 to three hole to press Josh Allen a little bit. I think you're right to point that out as kind of the turning point to probably the biggest missed opportunity for Jacksonville. All right. Also, and then they gave them the second at the end of the first half. So you've got to cam little field. We'll try and he missed it. Yeah. Plus the office matters. And always, always matters. Those kicks before half. Yeah, man. Um, what could have been, well, I don't mean to torture you with it anymore. Let's go through these one by one real quick Buffalo. Sorry to start there at Denver. What are you doing with this? Yeah. Well, it's interesting. You know, of course, Buffalo opened as a road favorite and pretty much immediately.

28:41Uh, that is flip now to to Denver minus one and a half. That's what I'm seeing now at the, at the DK sportsbook. I, I expect Denver to put forth a better defensive effort. Certainly then we saw from Jacksonville. I think that was another takeaway for me. We could talk about Lawrence all we want, but this Jaguar's defense that have been so good throughout the season. It just felt like, you know, third and four, third and six, third and eight was just automatic. You know, wide open receivers in those spots over and over. I would think Denver. You know, we'll put up a better fight on the defensive side. You know, Sean Payton comes into this game with with an extra week to prepare. You know, obviously, you know, Denver, even in week 18, they played some starters, but kind of had a walk over game against the chargers. So I, I expect them to, to, to put forth, you know, a, a much better all around effort than Jacksonville did. I do look at this as a potential under spot, though, at 45 and a half, because how do you trust the Denver Broncos offense? Yeah, we, we've seen flashes every now and then you think about that second half against the Giants. That was probably their best offensive stretch of the entire season. On balance, we've seen a lot more games where Denver just can't get anything going.

29:43They're trying to ride the running game. They're not ripping off explosives whatsoever. So I look at this as a spot where we're both defenses, kind of control the game. You know, whether it shouldn't be too much of a factor. But I would not expect Josh Allen to be able to play at quite that same level that we saw last week against Jacksonville. And worth noting he was banged up multiple times in that game. He's going to play through it. It's Josh Allen, even him at 70% is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The hits are starting to add up for Josh Allen. He's indestructible. But yes, you are correct. What is your biggest lean of the whole weekend? Let me just ask it broadly. Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I, to be honest, there's not one that I absolutely love right now. You know, I'm a little wary of San Francisco Seattle just because it's the third meeting between those teams. You know, tough number at seven. And we've seen Seattle mess around in the first half, especially offensively so many times. But you do wonder if the injuries are just at a breaking point for the 49ers right now.

30:43You know, I know Fred Warner is, you know, potentially going to be activated for this game. We'll see. I wouldn't count on that necessarily being the case. And you don't want to, you know, extract too much from one game. But I think you look at the final score in week 18 and you think, oh, Seattle, you know, they didn't really play very well offensively. I thought the Seahawks left at least 13 points. And you can argue as many as maybe 17 or 20 points on the board in that game, you know, some some killer mistakes, some special teams mistakes. They went out on downs after a long drive where they were moving it effortlessly in the first half. I mean, you have to give credit to the 49ers and Robert Salah for the way they played defensively against Philly. But how much of that is on the Eagles for just being the Eagles, right? They answered definitively that this offense is not back that beating the Raiders and beating the commanders and putting 13 points on the bills down the stretch. It was not the turnaround that we thought it might be for this offense. So as much as I would like to see San Francisco show up and compete in this game. I think there is a chance that, you know, by halftime, we look back and say, man, they're just too battered to go on the road and win again.

31:43I mentioned that there were two things I wanted to talk to you about. One was the Jaguars. Of course, because you're noted Jaguars fan. The other is, I know your Bucks guy last night. The Bucks are, the Bucks are losing by 30 at the half last night to the, to the T Wolves and they're booing the Bucks off the court. And then the third quarter begins and the Jaguars has an and one and he thumbs down the, I think that's over her thumbs down the Bucks crowd. This after professing Kelly was saying off air and professing his love for the Milwaukee crowd. He was getting some booze early in the game where the team was. What, what should they do with the honest at this point? Is it over? Yeah. Well, it's worth mentioning one that the Bucks were favored at home last night. The Timberwolves did not have Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert was suspended and they still dominated that game from start to finish. Look, I am a Bucks fan. Obviously, honest means the world to this franchise. It's been an incredible run, you know, since he became the player that he is now. I have long been of the belief that they should just bite the bullet and trade, I think it's best for both sides at this point.

32:47You know, it's clearly to me what Yannis wants and he is kind of following the Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, Damien Lillard in Portland script of, you know, I'm kind of scared to be the bad guy. I clearly want out there are there are reports behind the scenes indicating that that's the case, but then every time he's asked about it, he walks it back and says, no, what are you talking about me? No, I would never want to leave the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have done everything they possibly can over the last few years to surround Yannis with a title contender. This is not one of those situations where if and when he does move on, you look back and say, man, what could have been because they've tried everything. They tried everything. I love the Damien Lillard trade. Everybody loved it at the time. It just didn't work out. Yannis got hurt, Middleton got hurt, Lillard himself, of course, got hurt. And you got the ring. You know, you got the ring in 2021. Ultimately, that's what matters. I think that's what kind of gives him the agency to be able to move on without this being some sort of massive rift that Yannis and his camp seem to believe it will be. So it's kind of a standoff between both sides because the Bucks clearly don't want to lose him. Yannis clearly doesn't want to be the bad guy.

33:50It might ultimately have to be on the Bucks at some point to look themselves in the mirror and say, where are we going right now with this Yannis and nobody else around him court. T-Wolves win that game by 33, by the way, 139 to 106. It's sad. Nick, always a pleasure, man. Sorry about the Jags, but thank you for coming on. Appreciate it. Appreciate the condolences, guys. Thank you. Nick Whale and everybody, courtesy of Progressive Gas Line, some Sony Open chatter from Kelly Dex. The golf season begins on a numbers game. A numbers game on FISA, these sports betting network numbers game, Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas, majestic downtown Las Vegas, Gill Alexander. Television's Kelly Bidlin long side, by the way. We get tweets beating the book. This is this is from this Brosek 1870 got to get to the bottom of the guild murders. Oh, now it's plural.

34:52I think super jerk might have framed them. Very possible super jerk. Oh, David Montgomery. Sometimes I play football. That's his Twitter handle catching up with today's episode of sports law TV. So far, the most interesting part was Kelly's pronunciation of Latin legal terms will keep you posted. Thank you. Appreciate it. And Chad Lasso. This is interesting. He says the bills lack of wide receivers neutralized paths are 10 in a way. Not like they're going to be trying to hit their outside receivers often with what they have right now. Anyways, and Shakira is mostly slot. Chad is a very interesting point because and I always go to Dr. Bob for this kind of handycapping point growing up on the handicapping knee, if you will, of Dr. Bob. I saw him for so many years. Do great stuff with college football college basketball primarily. Being able to quantify weaknesses and strengths of teams often with injuries involved as well, what you would each player is worth. But really what you are referring to, he did very well, which is we often talk about strengths and weaknesses of teams. But if that strength is going up against a notable weakness.

35:58It minimizes that strength, right? It sort of it completely just takes that off the board as a point because they're not going to try to go up against that player anyway. It's like the, you know, you got a great rush defense. Cool. We don't run the ball. We just throw the ball. That's right. That's right. So there is there is some wisdom in what you're saying. There's a kernel wisdom in Chad. You're 100% right about that. Which brings us ladies and gentlemen, I believe this is our first in 2026, like earn really an earnest. Yeah, first in 2026, man, country club, and let's do it. Oh wow. Look at the crew go really good. Oh, man, they got just cut a size of members. Wow. They got glow sticks back there. Multiculler glow sticks. We need a cook. It's like a like a rave back there. A rave still things. Raves. Oh, that's what it is. Start out and Larry just rolled in straight from work from that. Yeah. That's what it was at the club.

37:01Before we get into the bets here that we're thinking of Sony open and beyond. You see this story because Trek McFee reminds me of this from yesterday. So by the way, I was. I was two and three in the tennis pitch. So after the four and oh, I was two and three in the tennis pitch yesterday, but one of them was a big dog at plus one eighty seven. So it was really like a virtual loss. I think we lost like three pennies last night going two and three. But one of the things that happened. So I don't bet qualities. I don't bet qualifiers in any tournament. Australian open qualities are going on right now or Australian pod Australian open podcasts would Drew and Zach is tomorrow. So I don't really immerse myself in the qualities because I'm not betting them, but there was a qualifier yesterday between Sebastian, oftener and the American Bosh of already. And they get to the tie breaker, the deciding set tie breaker. And oftener is up six one. He gets the seventh point. He raises his hands and victory as he's walking up and the umpire goes. It's not over, Mike. We're going to 10.

38:05Now Kelly, no one is more immersed in the sport of tennis than I am. I had no idea. But this is that Australian opener qualifiers makes you go to 10 as well. We still we're still doing this where every every grand slam where every tournament has their own tie breaker rules. Kind of sort of yeah. Where it's it's been it's it's almost homogenized now, but like it's okay. So the deciding one. Yes, the deciding fifth. In the at the Australian open will go to 10 for the winner. I didn't know they did it in the in the qualifiers as well. So Australian will be able to go to 10. Are they the only one that goes there without getting confused. Okay. But they definitely go to anyway. So I know my 10 something. So you have to say so he tells oftener is like you got to go back to my question playing. And you know what happens, right? No. Yes you do. When he cries like a baby about it. No, no, no. He goes back. He's like well. No, he gets hurt or something. No, he goes. I only need three more points. Right. I'm I'm up seven to one other dude walks off. So no. Yes, boss of already American player comes back. Would you say a K what a K other dude other dude comes back. And by the way that they each have match points back and forward match points.

39:15And anyway, boss of already a boss of already ends up winning at the tie breaker. I think 13 11 and then in very non tennis etiquette like fashion. There we go. It gives the Reggie Miller choke side in a quality. There you go. There's some drama. I was waiting for that. I was starting to laugh at myself where you're setting me up. You know what happens. I didn't even get to the the normal sport. Oh, that team that player came back. What was my first thing? Oh, someone quit. Someone complained about it. It's like around every possible option. I'm like, no, it's obvious. What happened? Anyway, that that happened there. You want to start with a couple tennis ones? Is that what we want to do before we do your Sony? We can. Whatever. Whatever. Whatever. Let's do that. We'll go to Sony. All right. Odds to win two plus grants. There's been a couple of these right. Well, I bet exact. You bet exacts. Okay. Yes. Yeah. This. So I bet Ega exactly to win two. I bet center exactly to win three at plus 350 plus 450 respectively. This is odds to win two plus grand slams. Period. So you go in two, three or four and cash this one on the women's side this year. Arena, Sabelanka is your short shop. By the way, here are my two bets real quick. There you go.

40:23Yonic to win three at plus 450. Ega to win two on the lady side of plus 350 back to the two plus prop though. Um, because I want to leave time for your Sony open though. Arena, Sabelanka on the lady side is the short shot plus 110 to win two plus. Then it's Ega plus 260. Coco is the only other person in single digits at 701. Again, Sabelanka favorite is she's the short shot to win the Australian open. She's largely considered the best hard court player. Remember, there are two slams. Two of the four slams aren't hard. Australia. In US open, Ega always the French open favorite. It's sort of her price built in is the fact that she will always be the big favorite to win that tournament on clay. And so therefore, she would only have to win one other. That's the thinking behind this price. I think those are accurately priced. I would for me, I'd only bet Ega knowing the French open part of things. But you know, me that's that's with me and Ega, but she does have the French open clay core dominance, right? Where she's one force for French opens already. These are fun. You know, I don't know how you

41:23feel about these markers. Don't worry. We'll do Sony open a little bit later because I do have some tennis and golf props. We just go through here. Okay. The I do think these are interesting. And I don't know how you view it, but like some of the golf ones we're going to get to. I'm like, these are fascinating. But like I'd rather just take this tournament to tournament for the most part. Do think this is interesting for someone like me where I might just bet Ega plus 260 two plus two plus slams and kind of sit on that for most of season. Yeah, she's always I mean, she won Wimbledon last year. She's always live to win a heart. She's one of US open before. So. I just think unless you think Arena, Saba Lanko has has so far ahead of the field that the plus 110's better, but I wouldn't let me ask you one real quick odds. They had odds up to win one plus, right? I didn't build them up, because Saba Lanko, she ought to take where not even listed cocoa minus 110 coin flip on cocoa to win a major. This is about right. Sounds about right. Where's Amanda Anissa Mova. Who is 25 to one to win two plus, but if I would I would consider an Anissa Mova win one bet. Yeah.

42:23Give me a sec. Amanda Anissa Mova, who made the last two slam finals of 2025, got bagel bagel by Ega and Wimbledon and then put up a great fight in the US open against Saba Lanko plus 225. Yeah, not as not as sexy as I want the price. That is. Yeah. Yeah, sexy as I'd like. Other ones, other notable names on that one. Mirror and Drava plus 160. This is after cocoa minus 110. We're back in a plus 175. Anissa Mova plus 225 Madison keys four to one, Jean plus 450, Osaka, five to one, Jasmine, Palini, seven. These are horrible price. There's nobody from outside of that group is going to win one. Horrible price. We're going to get to a funny golf work. And I made a mistake on the next one. Yeah. What's that? Well, with men's side, men's side, same thing, two plus grand slams. How do you feel this is even. I mean, this is, this is properly pray. Yannick center at minus 185 is value. Hate to say it. Really? Yes. To win two. Absolutely. Yeah, I was, I only had that reaction because I kind of thought that. Yep. When I was building this up, he's just that good man. And Carlos, again, not a big deal to a lot of people for tennis.

43:33Harnos, it is. He breaks up with Juan Carlos for air his coach of many years, who reared him in this sport. Carlos minus 145. I don't know with Carlitos, right? I mean, you'd expect his talent to rule, but you never know. Mm-hmm. And then Novak, Joker, which is 22 to one to win two plus he's not going to win two plus. He's just trying to win one to get that 25th. Okay, same game odds to win one. Tell me what your favorite. What's Novak to win one? Your favorite bet is here. Okay. Joker, which plus 225 is there of three to one. Fritz plus five 50 Shelton, seven to one, front, second plus seven, 50, Daniel plus seven, 50, Musetti, 10 to one, an Arthur feels 10 to one. I'll go, I'll go Medvedev. I'll do throwback at plus seven, 50. I'll go. I'll go old school Medvedev could bring it once more. US open. Yeah, US open. That'd be my guy. If it F, man, you want to do a golf here? He want to wait for a golf. Yeah, let's go. Let's go through the golf props. Let's see. So we had, you'll see these listed at multiple books. I think first of all, like just the pro tip of like be real careful. Remember our old pro tips. Yeah, be real careful. Whether you're looking at these tennis ones, we'll get to the golf ones.

44:44We're looking at tennis grand slams are golf majors. Very different. How many books have them worded as exactly one, two, three majors, grand slams or two plus, three plus that sort of thing. So whether you're looking at a Schuffler, one of the top tennis guys or ladies, just be very careful. Schuffler is minus 150. It was a shorter price in town before in certain shops. We'll get back to all those coming up on a numbers game right here at Visa. These sports betting network.