A Numbers Game | January 1, 2026 | Hour 3

0:00This is be sent these sports betting network. The numbers told the story. I always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I by Xander gone. V sent our number three of a numbers game at V sent these sports betting network. V sent dot com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. And of course, series XM channel 158 is kill Alexander right here on the numbers game. Kelly's behind the glass cracks about to join us here momentarily. It is Texas tech is a favorite everywhere now. Minus one is the low mark over here at circa draft Kings at one and a half right before kick off. So much like Miami took a stream of money before game time yesterday to get that all the way down to seven and a half. Now the favorite has flipped in this first of the three quarters today between Texas tech and Oregon. At hard rock stadium. This is going to be very interesting, but there's either flow of money. We get tweets beating the book warrior zero one three Matt.

1:01I wield Kenyans to dick any time touchdown on five different parlays today. Let's go. And of course the Oregon tight end. As we're about to kick off in this ballgame. See the proxy. I hope you Kelly and the Angie team have a happy new year. Are we sure anyone had a happier new year than my Emmy hurricanes mascot Michael Irvin. Yeah, he was losing his mind last night. Mike Zill's Duke 90. If you want to do macy's Thanksgiving day parade stay at the Midtown Hilton on 6th Avenue. No line right on route. Sometimes parade is out your window. Also good activity the night before late night Central Park West watch balloons get blown up. As well. And then also the Central Park New Year's Eve 5K is funny says if you're into parades. This is from. This is Brian silver. I just changed my head strategy due to rising Falcons money line did a little on Macmillan minus 120. Traveon 12 to one. Still heavily waited towards Shuck. A lot of CSI tweets. There's David Caruso tweet from Mike Zill's. Dan at DPS 0184 forces have you ever heard of Melina kind of courageous. I hadn't heard her name, but then when I clicked on it.

2:01I saw her picture. I am familiar with her. Kevin Ryan kill have I have been listening to the entire show and I'm not heard the upside commercial once. It's truly going to be a great year. And then this from Buddhist man. And this is a great sort of segue into the crack man. He said as much as we all love tax law radio with Gillian Kelly. Can you talk a little about any adjustments? You'll be making a how you'll be betting sports video poker contests, etc. This upcoming year without further ado. Unscripted with the crack man bill cracking burger. Let's do it. Oh yeah. What up, Billy. Good morning. Good morning, sir. I'm happy New Year. Happy New Year. What's the conclusion? All the staff here that comes in and does their work here at a matter of watt in the rain. Like what is it rain's leader Shine the Postal Service and Vison they get here no matter what and you as well. Yeah, no show it about New Year's Day. We appreciate it.

3:01And thank you to our loyal listeners. I just said that. You have such a great listeners. Great. You know, I say that. Yeah. Only on your show. If you say it on more shows, then that dilute shit. It's wrong. This is really true. We really have good supportive listeners. and they're the best. I was pretty surprised by what's going on in here. There's a lot of people here that's so early in the morning. Now, granted, last night was New Year's Eve, I know, but people are up early for this Oregon Texas Tech game is about 50 people waiting to get in, the get seats here at Circa behind us. And a nice mixed crowd there, real serious, too. I see some people cheering already, a lot of ducks uniforms, a lot of Oregon uniforms. This whole section here is Texas Tech. And I see people like coming in, like cheering them. And then there's a lot of Oregon people on line. Yeah. And you know what? It leads me to my old Bronx tail line, though. They don't care about you. Why do you care about them? See if you can't pay your rent. See if you can go to some of the coach of Oregon. I thought you were going into money. I thought you were going to go to the,

4:01or the sound of Italian men romancing their dates. Right. Hey Marie, get in the oven car. Get in the car. No, I'm sorry. Say that again. It's just, it's the old Bronx tail line. You know, when the kid Mickey Man, I'll everyone knows it. And yeah. And the kids were ways baseball courts after the mobster. Sonny said to him, they see if your father can't pay the rent. See if Mickey Man will pay. You don't care about you. Now I'm not trying to be so rude and harsh and stuff. But people go to Oregon. I understand there's people go to Texas Tech. So of course they support the university. But I know a lot of people that are mad at their universities because they continually ask them for money after they graduate. Oh, this is a, this is a, I'm on board with these people. Okay, this is constantly John, well, John Malini, you know, the comic John Malini used to write for Saturday and live. He's, I think he's married to Olivia Munn. Maybe he's, I don't know if they're married or not. But anyway, he's a baby daddy. He has a comedy bit about this. He goes, he goes, and in his voice, he does it very funny, but he's like,

5:02let's understand what the transaction is. I pay you, right. I go to your university. You teach me for four years. And then it's over. You don't get to then ask me for money for the rest of my life. Oh, yeah. And then my cousin who graduated from Fordham and then on to MIT, he actually says, it's amazing that here we are 35 years later and they're still asking him for money, constantly, constantly. And this was like two years ago, he said this. So I'll say, then there's also has money. I was like, stop setting me stuff, man. Stop setting me stuff. And they find you no matter what. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll stop for a second and they'll find you. I have mine also that does it on the street to the Bronx. There's still cotton, you know, saying, trying to shake me around. Your own school, the heart of my own school. They're those guys in the corner. Let me ask you about this as the game is set to begin. Yeah. So we saw this unbelievable influx of money now. Oregon was a two and a half point favorite. Then there were two point favorite. And now it's all the way swung. Texas Tech is the favorite.

6:03And this is all within the last 30 minutes to an hour, really, of doing a numbers game. Last night, same thing, right? Miami was a nine and a half point dog. Then at some point, I looked up like an hour before the game. And all of a sudden Miami was a seven and a half point dog. Like the money just came flowing in on the hurricanes. Yep. This is, this is always fascinating because I made the point last seven. I'm like, this just shows how we're too close to the sun, right? Like when we're talking, we're talking to a betting audience. They're locked in. They're a sophisticated betting audience. So of course, they're not going to wait till the last second to bet these things. But the truth is, is that 95% of bet are still do this. Yes. You could see it in every sports book across America, people getting shut out that are in the books. And they're online and they don't know who they want to bet. But they have to have action every game, especially the early morning, 9 AM game. And yeah, they got shut out. They don't know who they want. But the last minute, and you're right, it's, and that's probably a good number of people that are in casinos. I would say in the 90s. Yeah.

7:0390%. What they want. Interesting that this particular move, FES said something to me this morning, betting secret. Hope I could say this, FES, secret anymore betting here. Here's a betting, betting, betting secret line moves early games. They never reverse early in the morning. They just keep moving. Everyone is betting who their touts told them to bet the night before. If there's a reversal, it doesn't happen until one minute before post. So it's, it's interesting that this game did move this way because I was hearing more Oregon out there. So not, not me, Oregon, Oregon is, yeah. So it's, it's, it's kind of interesting. I know that the sharp group that I know early in the week bet the under on the first half here is still 20. Dr. Bob is on the, is, is, is Dr. Bob is a strong opinion, not a best bet on the full game under. So that tracks with him. Yeah. 24. You can get right here at, at, at circa and superbook.

8:04Now I wouldn't recommend betting like last minute here when you have an efficient market. However, this is a first half market that most people don't look, Joe Puppet doesn't look a first. I agree. So even me on NFL this year, I'm holding my own betting first half totals in the NFL day of the game. So I would understand how you can win be a winning sports better betting the day of the game. Just like weeks with these games to get down the right side and iron them out like Texas money came in real early. And then it moved up to like seven, six and a half. And then it moved way down yesterday and Texas luckily got there actually the, oh, talk about the Michigan game yesterday, Michigan game, yeah. So you know, you have some times that iron these things out. Sometimes it's amazing that it doesn't, you know, it's, it's actually amazing that they bounce back. A lot of times I look and I know it's just buyback. Some people, there's so many people trying to middle and scout, let's call it middle though. And it's a football season.

9:04Most of them really don't know the pulse of the market. So they, they're more guessing or they're chasing steam. They see something on a screen or chasing some steam. Well, now the buyback comes in late. You don't know what's real sometimes. You have to be in that pulse of the market. Yeah. So you used to do that. You said when you were first, when you were an early better early in your betting life, you used to do a lot of that. If it wasn't for that, you wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be here. I built up a bankroll. Yeah. I only started this little thing of ours here with about a thousand bucks. Yeah. I was working two jobs, you know, went down Atlantic City met someone that changed my life. I talked about this most listeners know. And that guy in the, you know, early 90s, he literally showed me about middleing and scalping. And it was the 90s when there wasn't even the internet was even out yet. So it was just talked about and starting. And it was a better time for middleing and scalping actually because real simply, you didn't know what the other sports books had.

10:05You know, you had to have their line up. You had a call up for rundowns. And even if you were here in Vegas, the famous four corners with the banks of pay phones and stuff, that was just unbelievable. It was paid there. That was Churchill Downs. Where was the famous? Well, the four corners was here, you have where the Bellagio is now. You had, you had the Barbarary Coast behind that. You had, there was a little casino behind that bourbon street, bourbon street behind that at the maximum. You had Bally's across the street. You had, of course, users palace over there. So you had so many different lines. You can, you can get all run by different, all different shops and you're physically running around. Yeah. They had those big antique cell phones, the box like one from Wall Street. Yeah, like, yeah, Gordon Gekko on the beach. But where was the bank of the, of the, of the pay phones, the famous pay phones almost everywhere, but start us was a big start was the popular one. Okay.

11:05That was down a little bit. I don't know why I got Churchill Downs. Yeah. Yeah. Not Churchill Downs, Kentucky, but Churchill Downs. The book that was here. Sports book. That's a little, that's a little performing. Those standalone books are, are performing. Yeah. They were all named after like horse tracks. Yeah. Yeah. Right about that. Yeah. It was a fun time. When we come back from break now, I have a play from Mr. Randy McKay. Oh, okay. We'll do that. I also want to get your answer to this question that Buddhist posed, which is New Year's resolutions. Obviously, you do it in life, but also in sports betting. Do you have any in terms of changing your betting behavior in 2026 is something, you take away from 2025 that you might want to share it, give you a little break to think about that as well. No crack in burger, unscripted right here on a numbers game at Vison as a organ in Texas tackle. Wait, kick off on a beautiful New Year's Day in college football coming back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline.

12:09And now so can you. Vison pro gives you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff. The action will info that moves markets, tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vison pro numbers game on Vison, these sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, laugh from circular sort to see them downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget about Omaha steaks where football meets flavor with Vison and Omaha steaks, the official sponsor of tailgating and right now when you spend $129, you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings, plus 50% offside wide at Omaha steaks.com slash V S I N don't wait, spend $129 get two pounds of wings and say 50% side wide on steaks and more at Omaha steaks.com slash V S I N. That's Omaha steaks.com slash V sin minimum purchase required C site for details, Oregon received the opening kickoff and they are matriculating

13:13the ball down the field they are in a plus territory, but they're going to face a third and long here at the Texas Tech 21 yard line, three minutes into this ball game, the second of the four college football quarter finals. We get tweets beating the book. This is from Jack Olaquire, I don't know, yeah, Jack let me read yours first, Jerry says guilt coming out to circuit tomorrow, unfortunately, we won't be on the stage holding one of those big checks, but we're coming anyway for the madness. If you Kelly or cracker going to be at circus Saturday or Sunday, hopefully we'll catch up with you. I won't be there Saturday or Sunday, but here rather Saturday or Sunday, but maybe Kelly or crack will be Chris Heath before the circus circus Reno book was bought by William Hill. There were four separate books in Reno within a quarter mile of each other, JD and Florida bill. You ever think about writing a book you've seen and lived through more than most willing their lives. I think it would be a solid read happy new year, a book very nice of people ever book in your future. A lot of people have said that to me. If I can only jot all these things down, these little stories, yeah, I even have a couple

14:15for today. You remind us, we'll give this game out because it's moving everywhere, please do. And people knew because people know he bets Illinois State. Yeah. So yes, Randy on Monday, Monday, January 5th game, Illinois State, it was, it's still plus 10 and a half at bed MGM and South Point, oh, and, and, and pinnacle. So you got plus 10 and a plus 10 and a half, seizures plus 10 and a half minus 13. That's fine. What's 10 and a half? And there is, um, yeah, there's some book, yeah, yeah, Fandall's plus 10 and a half. So there is some, some of the legals to it, 10 and a half. So there you guys go, Illinois State plus the 10 and a half Illinois State plus 10 and a half is, uh, Randy McKays, FCS national championship play against Montana State. That is in four days, right? That is four days from now. Yeah. Okay. No Monday night football. I don't think that day. No Monday night football. Monday night football. Get the action in now. Next happy New Year to you both, Bill Gill, Craig, I'm bringing up the phone banks reminds me of my mid 20s running between Castaway, Santa Anita Stardust and the Riv as well as

15:17the notorious Austin's book that stiffed me in 1985, uh, Josie 714 happy New Year's the best show on Visa and the two best host Yes, Kelly, you got promoted in two best guests. Thank you, Josie. Happy New Year to you as well. Uh, this is from, uh, let's see, Oh, Chrissy, that's, I wouldn't mind hearing that keep the hopper full story again from bull from Bill what story keep the hopper full. What was that? Oh, yeah. That was my original thing. Well, let me first address Max. Please. And I'll get the hopper full. Yes. So Max is someone that was in town here and he was in the know. He was, uh, working for many, many large organizations. That's what that's all I'll say. And, uh, those books are before me and that must have been the glorious time. It really must have been. And however, he said he was stiff there. And yeah, the Gary Austin's book, who Gary just died and, um, it, Gary stiffed people. And yet I know people that are in the know and them telling me and maybe this is not a, not really a question for you, Max, but more of a comment.

16:20I almost had words with someone that I really respect in the industry saying there was a lot more to that story. He really didn't stiff people. It's not really like that. Well, Max is living proof there. And I also know some other people living proof and just to hear that solidifies what I thought. I think he paid the people he had to pay this Gary Austin guy and went off, went off shore, went to trade winds, made multi millions and millions of dollars. He was busted with, um, a couple of years ago in Florida, you could just do a search on his name. You could see they went into his house. They found gold bullions. They took like, like literally an upwards of a $20 million seizure. So, uh, he asked to live with that, what, what he did to people. So, um, you know, you know, how can you have a, I still don't know. And maybe mass can answer this in a DM to me. How can some sports book stiff somebody, a legal license sports book on the strip, by the way? It was on the strip.

17:21How can you stiff customers? How can, uh, you know, how can a sports book go out of business? Was it a model? Was it a model related reason? No, definitely. It's a single, single little, even if it was though, you're a legal, legal license sports book. Say it. Uh, let, let's, let's use like, uh, I'll use boomers because it's just a single sports book. Yeah. So a single sports book like boomers, how can they just go out of business and, and steal everyone's money? Well, they can't today. But what I'm saying is back in the day, who knows what the time may be back in the day. You said the same thing, people. No, seriously. Maybe it was. That's what I'm saying. I really don't know the, the inner workings of that and how that worked. It's unbelievable. That's pretty scary. It is. Atticus, uh, Atticus sapping to it, by the way, 50 yard field go for Oregon. Oregon is up three, nothing less than five minutes into this ballgame. Um, what about the Buddhist man question? Oh, any, any, any, any. Well, let me, I don't want you to forget what you're about. No, no, I was going to talk about the, the, the, the other guy's questioning. Do we have one Buddhist man's? Buddhist man's question was about, are you, uh, do you glean anything from 2025 to change

18:21your sports of any behavior in 2026? I really haven't put a lot of thought into it. Yeah, I'm not playing any too much video poker. I put a lot of video poker to last year, a couple of years. Now they did raise the threshold. I'm told you don't get a tax ticket now for $1,200 no more. It's, um, the, the tax ticket is $2,000. So if you hit for 1,900, supposedly the credit is just going on the machine. I don't know if these machines in every casino are set up to do exactly that. They may still freeze up if you hit 1,500 or 1,300, they may still freeze up a slot attendant may even have to bring you to money. So I would think the slot attendants are upset because they're not going to get tipped as much. They're, they're, you know, they, they come to the machines and pay you by hand. Congratulations. And they bring a welcome in committee and, you know, they'll count the money out for everyone to hear it in the whole casino and, and, um, that's another thing too.

19:22Uh, I had a, I wrote it down. Let me see if I wrote down, I had a teller do something to me the other day. I thought it was great. I said, wow, that you're like the first teller horse. I didn't write his name down. I didn't write it down. I know what it was though. It was. I went to get money from a casino and, oh, first cash here. Look at this. First cash here, everything about being discreet rolling at the Southpoint. Thank you, Rowan. Again, I wrote his name down. So I go to the cashier and, and I'm going to pull some money out of my account and been, been really beaten up Southpoint. So I said, you know, give me a good amount of money. I'm not going to sit the amount and he said, um, use that. I put the money in the money counter. But it makes a lot of noise. You want to be discreet here and count this for it. So it's going to take you a bit. But go ahead, sure. I say, you know what? The first cashier, it's ever told me that, you know, um, being the, he used the word discreet because, you know, when you, you go to the cashier at allotting these casinos, they go to the money counter and it's, and, and, you know, that might as well put in a microphone for everybody.

20:22That's right. And, uh, and I just thought it was really cool. What he did, counting out the money, taking the extra one. And of course, I took care of him. I'm going to take care of them anyway. You know, it's one thing you can't do. You can't go to a cashier and they don't know. In other words, let's say you have 20,000 in circa and 20,000 in Southpoint and you see some big plays, whatever it may be at, at, at, at, at circa. And I lose. Well, now I'm down at circa and, or I'm taking money out to put money in another sports book, Westgate or something. You can't go to the counter and take 10 grand out and just stiff the, the, the cash year. Now, it doesn't mean I won. It just means I'm taking money out of there. So you have to give them money anyway. At least that's what I do. And I know a lot of the pros do. And, you know, I shouldn't say that. I really shouldn't say a lot of the pros do. I know a phasic and I do that. Yeah. So phasic probably being more generous than you guys are both very generous. Yeah, trust me. Phasic is really more generous. I told you we'd have the one day here. All I did was transfer 10 between accounts and he's like, I got to come 20. Yeah.

21:23The phasal leaf dude was press a button. They didn't even take them. There wasn't physical money transaction. But anyway, it's, it's, it's an interesting thing. And so for next year to go back to Buddhist man who's, who happy new year to him, he's been all year long. It's a really loyal person. He's the best to visa. He's awesome to you, yeah. And to me, hilarious, by the way, as well. Yes, really nice guy. Yeah, to have I done things differently. No, I'm still hoping that something changes with this law. You are a formed product pretty much in terms of your betting habits. But I, it does make you think if I didn't live in Nevada, we're one of the states that's really cracks down on, on people betting in foreign places, are we places that they're, you normally say far away places? I'm sure with that. Yeah, yeah. But are you going to understand how it forced people back off? Sure. Are you going to gravitate towards prediction markets? Do you think I think Kalshi is definitely in my future here. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, for sure. I'm looking for for sure. Yeah.

22:23And someone I went to lunch with a lawyer and he sent me back a whole tech. He's a, he's a gambling lawyer too. And I'm sorry. I forget his name. I'm sorry. I know you watch. Um, he's got like 400,000 followers on Twitter. Uh, he, he really said how the prediction markets are going to be the big thing for anyone that's serious in sports betting in the futures. There's no the smartest and you carry over your losses. He said, too, I didn't realize that because it's, it's a prediction market. Slash your betting contracts, which almost is parallels to the stock market. You can carry over losses. I was like, I never thought he was kind of, he's kind of think because let me be regulated by the commodities exchange falls under different umbrella. So they're here to stay. Yes, they're here to stay. Um, Oregon leading three nothing with an opening drive field goal. And then Texas tech with a quick three and out thereafter. So over nine minutes left in the, uh, first quarter when last I peak coming back more unscripted with crack man on the other side. It's a numbers game and visa these sports betting.

23:30Network profit X the number one sports prediction market has some of the best future pricing. You'll find on college football national championship and super ball odds with a huge holiday slate shaping playoff seating. Now's the perfect time to get in and take advantage of profit X is 20% purchase match. Download profit X today and experience the future of winning. Use promo code V sin to get started. Kill Alexander Bill Crackenberger in studio here at circa, uh, staring into the sun bill to, uh, try to figure out what's happening in the game. Oregon, just with a, uh, fourth and two conversion and midfield. Well, you got four yards. They are matriculating the ball down the field. Once again, their second drive got a field goal on their first drive, a 50 yarder. Uh, Texas tech with a three and out in between three to nothing ducks. And they're looking for more here in the, uh, second half of the first quarter, if you will, uh, we get sweet speed in the book. This is from strong capper who says it's count demonet. If you know, you know, Bill's video poker story count demonet isn't that from, uh,

24:33from history of the world count demonet, I believe, um, pardon me. Montreal max follows up about his stories and no DM needed. What Austin's did was default on our phone accounts that were new. Then after he took a big stance on cardinals beating royals in 1985 world series and staged a fake robbery on it. So, um, Nevada gaming commission just wrote it off since phone account funds weren't tickets. Oh, it's a whole thing. That's what happened. I never knew. Yeah, I knew about the stage fake robbery. Yeah. Yeah, uh, cancer free from stage four NHL says, uh, the star dust and Riviera sportsworks would literally cross Las Vegas boulevard from each other and you could run across the street between books in about 30 seconds, almost always get an extra half point at one of them. Oh, cool. Yeah, uh, Chris of St. Bartz a Chris was happening man. Chris says, uh, agree 100% on a crack man book. Thank you both for your generosity. Hope to finally say hi in person this year. Chris, I'd love that man. Stop by. Say hello, uh, Darren Frazier, the biggest conflict of 2026 so far. Do I have the volume up on the Oregon, Texas tech game or crack man segment?

25:35I wouldn't dare miss one of crack man's amazing stories. Crack man wins. Beasts and volume up volume up. Thanks. Right. We'll give you update on the. Thanks for my man. The whole thing. Yeah. Um, what about? Okay, you said you had some other stories. Well, first of all, this, um, personal on Twitter, I've never met him. He's a real loyal guy. Mikey's ill. Yeah. He, he just said he got a 1500 dollar hand paid this morning at Bo Ravage. No paperwork. So that was good. That's, so that's, it's actually working already today is the first day. So, uh, I believe 2000 26. It went into effect. So thank you very much. Going back to that person that asked about the hopper field. That was in the landing city, uh, 30 years ago, 30 plus years ago. And, uh, when I first learned, I, you know, I knew a vantage game. I knew a vantage blackjack, but I didn't know advantage machines and advantage gambling as far as, um, uh, as far as sports go. And I went down the landing city based on someone else telling me, Hey, go down the landing city. Something's going on there in this bank of blackjack machines. And I won't get into the whole thing just to synopsis here.

26:37We've got real lucky and old older gentleman. It's like one or two in the morning. Older gentleman got up from the end machine. Me sitting down on that machine changed my life because the guy next to me was an advantage sports better. He worked at resorts. That's right. He was actually working for resorts. Casino, he was in charge of the blackjack cart counting team internally. They, they also count cards also, not just the customers. So it's not, not as much now. They, they now they just teach the floor people to count, uh, which again, uh, you can learn 90% of what I know in a three, four hour internet session for free. Just looking at reading on the internet. So anyway, that guy Frank changed my life. He showed me about advantage sports betting, showed me about the bonuses, the sports books. The, this is the early sports books like English sports betting ricks, ricks. And, um, of course, there was the Chris sports book. There was a lot of sports books back then, uh, offering giant, giant bonuses, 100% matches, um, 50% matches. You, so they're giving you the money to the beginning.

27:37But then again, a lot of those options, not them. Yes, they're, yes, they're included English sports betting screwed me. Dennis Ataya out of Pennsylvania, uh, screwed me and a lot of people out of money in the end. And it's amazing. All the money he made, uh, back in the back in the business in the day, um, that he would screw people in the end. A lot of books and antique was screwed people. A lot of books and, you know, these startup books, they just, they just didn't pay, uh, that's why I refused to post up anywhere. I'm not posting on my money up anywhere. Uh, I'm done with that. They amazingly about that story. They're always about the, uh, the slot machine where the, where you sat down at that one moment in time. I always think these, these, these kinds of things in life are, you know, it's the old sliding doors thing for those who have, have seen the, uh, the movie. Had you sat at a different slot machine, yeah, had you sat at that same one, but an hour later, sure, your entire life can be traced to that moment. Absolutely. I really believe that that's exactly what happened. Yeah, I would never be here here sitting with you. Yeah, if it wasn't for sitting on that slot machine, life is about a lot of luck. It is, it's a lot of people say you make your own luck.

28:39Well, I want to tell you something, you do what you don't, yeah, about a lot of luck also, um, being in the right place to write time, connections, knowing the right people, talking with confidence, uh, act as if just being a strong personality. It lives about a lot of luck too though. And there's a, and there's a whole other thing that we don't acknowledge also, which was, you know, sort of the theme of Malcolm Gladwell's book outliers, which is we also don't realize that our set of circumstances, we like to think as human beings, we are 100% responsible for everything that ends up happening to us. When, in fact, as he was pointing out in that book, we are not. So for, for example, I'll give them no sports related example of it was why are there so many Canadian hockey players in the NHL? And the answer is not as simple as you think. Oh, no, why are there so many Canadian hockey players born in certain months? And the answer is because in Canada, when they're, when they're playing juniors, it's all calendar year base. So if you're, let's say you were born in January of 1985, you are playing with

29:41kids who are born in December of 1985. And so the kids who are, when you're growing up, you're physically smaller oftentimes when you're born later. Right. And so those that are older and are physically stronger in January, February, March born when you're paired with all those people in your calendar year, you end up gaining confidence and playing on Winnihawk. And it just stays a snowball that ends up propelling you then to high school teams into all star teams into hockey into professional hockey leagues, then to the NHL. So all kinds of things. And those at his point is you don't have control necessarily over your outcome. That's just one example of many interesting. Yeah. So I thought, by the way, real quick update Oregon did convert one fourth down a fourth into it at the midfield. Then the subsequent to that deeper into text tech territory. They tried to convert a fourth and one stuffed Wow. So Texas tech back with the ball late first quarter. So unders looking good early in this one. Three to nothing. Yeah. Live lines 44.

30:43So yeah, it was 51 pre flop. Yep. Speaking about luck. And this is something that a lot of math guys will disagree with. And you know, maybe it's just me being a street guy. I do believe that some people are luckier than others. We've talked about this before and I've talked about well, last week, Randy McKay gets off my show and I may have said it on your show. I don't know great gambler, but also like I say this about phasic too. Really smart at math. Also, the luckiest dude you'll ever meet. Yeah. No, there is there's something to this, but this guy that won 14 cars, by the way. And so yesterday, I talked to him about this. I said, Randy, you probably never heard this term before. And I don't know. I'm not cursing on the show. Abusted ASS, you could probably say that. That's an old New York term, you know, and he has one. So last week, he gets off my podcast and he's looking for an advantage of machines going through a vantage banks and machines.

31:43And he sees one that's $30 a spin and he says, you know what? It's a lot of money per spin. But there's two bonuses on this machine that I have to play just to get off. I do have the bankroll for this. So he's looking to win a thousand or two thousand, a couple thousand. And he winds up winning the grand jackpot for 53,000. Of course he does. 53,000. It's his biggest score he's ever made on a real. Yeah. And he's just the lucky guy just now granted. He has losses. He has losses of 20 and 30,000 chasing $100,000 video poker jackpots. But he has much more wins. You have to have the bankroll to withstand that kind of a swing, which he does. And yeah, just very interesting how we talk about people being luckier than others. And you know, it's like the Eddie mush from the Bronx tale. Eddie Monterey, I think it was his name, you know, Eddie and that, that by the way, people that watched Bronx tale, that really is the real Eddie. You know, De Niro and Chaz Pomontair. They were looking for an actor. They said, why don't we just get Eddie from the real guy we can find them.

32:45They got Eddie and that, that is the real Eddie mush. Eddie was so jinxed in life, even I said this in this spot before. Our lady, I'm on common church in the Bronx there. He's he's on the church steps and they he dies and they put them in the cascaded. Welcome to that steps. Put them in the back of the herst first pulls away flat tire. I mean, that's just Eddie's, that's just the way, uh, you know what? Fesequence, I don't want to leave the Fesec thing hanging, but Fesec, who is an actuary by trade knows his math. People can say what they will, but certainly you can't question him on his ability to discern mathematics when it comes to betting and beyond. But he believes because I said he's that he's also the luckiest duty. We call him the luck box, right? But you know what he will say? He will be like, you're right, but it's funny because he has periods of years where his luck drastically swing. So he like, he can pinpoint like a six year period in his betting career where he had terrible luck, which changed to a five year period where he had amazing luck. That just sounds like very interesting. Wait, he said he just, he runs good and then he runs bad for amazingly lengthy periods of time.

33:48I'm talking about people that are lucky in life. Continually, yeah, there's no bad luck six year streaks, that's right. You know, so, um, they just, they just run into things all the time. So that's, uh, listen, I got to be honest with you. I think you and I are lucky. I do. I, I think we're, look where we are. Yeah. Who we're doing. Oh, grateful for the outreach. It's just lucky. I, there's a lot of, you know, I'm not saying there's more to it that luck, but yes, lucky. No, I get it. I get it. Sure, absolutely, there's absolutely. There is got to acknowledge that coming back more with the crack man unscripted on a numbers game. Right here at Visa, these sports betting network. A numbers game on fee set, these sports betting network back on a numbers game. Live from Circa Resort, Casino downtown Las Vegas. Kill outlet standard Kelly's behind the glass, because crack is in with us right now. By the way, you can follow Bill on Twitter at Bill crack man with a K name of his podcast.

34:51His wise cracks with Bill Crackenberger, uh, John Orlando does a great job with Bill every single episode of that. By the way, update again. Now we are through one quarter of this Oregon old Miss game. Excuse me, uh, Oregon, Texas Tech game. I'm looking at the board with Ole Miss on an Oregon, Texas Tech, Texas Tech with a second consecutive three and out, uh, their first two drives of this game. Now Oregon with their first three and out of the game. So feel goal on the opening drive for the ducks. Then they were stymied on a fourth and one deep in Texas Tech Territory. And now a three and out, three to nothing at the end of the first quarter with Texas Tech primed to get the football back. So unders if you if you made first quarter bets, unders cash easy peasy in the end and Oregon gets the money. If you bet the first quarter in this one, the second of the four quarter finals after that awesome Miami Ohio State game yesterday, we get tweets of beating the book. This is from Jordan. Let me find the right, uh, I've already I've scrolled away from it. Jordan Pagel. Glad to hear I wasn't the only one who struggled on futures this year.

35:53Not only was it my first losing year betting win total since I started during COVID, but I'm one in eight with the Niners all to over still pending ready to put this season behind me. Yeah. Jordan, it happens to the best of us, man. Jeffrey S. DeVore. Speaking of CSI, grow the beard out a little bit with those dark rim glasses, Gil. You start looking more like Gil Grissom every day from CSI happy new year to the best morning show around. Thank you. Jeffrey S. DeVore. And you know, you could do worse looking like a Gil Grissom is Gil Grissom still with us. By the way, I'm curious. This is from this for you, Billy. This is from I can call you Betty. Can you ask crack his thoughts about states like Connecticut that are sending cease and assist memos to prediction market companies like Kalshi any opinion on that? Wow. It's going to happen more and more. Not know about Connecticut doing that any any area that you have the tribal gaming councils and tribal gaming. I'm sure California has led the led the way with that interesting, but they're not going to cease in the system. They would take a federal mandate.

36:54I will say it again. I think the sacrificial lamb will be the sweepstakes loophole, right? So I think that loophole will go away. But the prediction markets, which again are regulated on a federal level by the commodities exchange and have Donald Trump Jr. on their boards. There is nothing. These legalized sportsbooks can do about them. That's just my opinion. We'll see the RGB, the social beacon, happy new year to everyone. No way I could miss a numbers game and crack today. May all your tickets and spins cash. Hopefully Kelly makes it the year without being banned from another blackjack room. What a cool photo. He says, man. He's got the organ game up. He's got us up on the screen. That's awesome. Love it. Let's see. 714. A buddy from Southern Cali says, is Bolvata still a good offshore book? Bolvata. That was the old Calvin air book. You know, it's funny. I actually knew Calvin back when I used to write for a website. And we used to go down to like Costa Rica, Antigua, Carousel and the solvacy of sportsbooks.

37:56I have been with Calvin multiple times. He back in the day, he owned the big book, Mayan and Grand Prix casinos. And then he got a lot of trouble. But then he was on the front. He went on the front of Forbes magazine as a billionaire bookmaker and he got himself in trouble. I don't know who owns the book anymore. But at one time, they used two different sets of lines. So one for the sharps, anyone with a pulse and one for Joe Public. They used two sets of lines. They limited people. I can't recommend really any sports book offshore that I don't know. Of course, the bookmaker brand has been around for years. There are a billionaire sports book there. But you know, a bookmaker, I mean, what it used to be, they're like six, seven years ago, they had so many more markets. I'll tell you what, the juice at a lot of the books has changed dramatically. Better markets.

38:57If you look at the pinnacles, it's just the markets are so used to be like 103 each way. And now it's 104 each way. I told you, I was privy to a partner meeting down there in Curacao and they were going to one on one juice. Like that, since they sold the guys that own pinnacle, it's owned by someone else now. The markets have gotten worse and worse. And the different available bets have gotten worse, they used to have so many different type of bets. They don't even offer these kind of, this kind of betting anymore, it's gotten worse and worse. You're absolutely right. But as far as the financial book, that's the only one that I really know that has a ton of money in there. They're not supposed to stiff anybody so I can't tell you about about Calvin Aaron, what he's doing now. And that was a book. It was called Bowdog back in the day before Spavada. Bowdog back in the day. Remember that? That's it. Bovada, I mean, they have, there are markets, right? During the Super Bowl, when we do like national anthems and half times, they're great for that kind of stuff. Right.

39:57Well, I thought we were going to get that here, I really don't, we're going to get more of that here. Yeah. Not like they're going to bet, let you bet a lot, but they at least they exist. Right. Is what I'm saying. Right. Yeah. This is by the way, Aaron Schatz pointing out on Twitter, by the way, Rich PSM, making us aware of this about the MVP discussion in the national football league, complicating the MVP discussion. Even more, he says Matthew Stafford is Aaron Schatz talking Matthew Stafford has played the third hardest schedule of opposing past defenses. Drake May has played the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses. Yeah, we'll get Aaron Schatz on the show. He is a AP voter for all the awards and we will get Mike Sandow on as well to talk awards in the national football league. He is a voter as well. So looking forward to that. By the way, Texas Tech, second play of their third drive, Baron Morton throws a pick, when Finney Jr. comes up with it, Oregon set up at the Texas Tech 33, but they're going to be held to a field will try actually they're bounced out into punt formation, I think,

40:58right? They get knocked down just punted away. So three to nothing, uh, which were 55 less than a second quarter, uh, Oregon stopped once on a fourth and one deep in Texas Tech territory. And now set up at the 33, not only couldn't get into, uh, into the end zone, but got backed out of field goal range. So there we go. Texas Tech for their poor has not been able to do anything on the offensive end to three and outs and a pick on their three. You'll have a little advice for people, please get yourself a win-law statement. Here we are at the end of the year. Get yourself a win-law statement from every casino you played in throughout the year. I want you to do this not for taxes, but for your own good, for your own sanity or insanity, I should say. So what I'm saying is, you know, we as gamblers, our mind is, oh, we just remember that big win or winning money or making a score. Like I always say, I really, I draw a parallel to a, a drug addict going to get a drug. They, the high is not only getting the drug is running for the drug.

42:02It's the process of getting the drug to routine the, um, the, the, it's actually a sickness, but it's that's part of the high is doing that. So get yourself a win-law statement, no matter what, it has nothing to do with taxes. Just ask every casino for one, they'll send you one. It's on their app. It's, it's a lot easier to obtain this than you think. Now, why am I saying this? Well, I want you to look at your losses cumatively between the casinos. I want you to know how much money you lose that you don't realize. You just remember that big win. You don't remember the small losses. So you won 4,000 one trip. You've been chasing that one. You lose 200 one day, lose 700 one day, lose 500. These are all different casinos that you go to. Look what you do by the end of the year and let it get to you if it does get to you because some people do this for entertainment. It's different. Yeah. Entertainment wise, all right. You have fun. People go to the movies, people go on vacation, people spend money out and shopping.

43:04If that's your entertainment, fine, so be it. However, if you're seriously looking at the end of the year where your bank role is, where your money is, I want you to look at those win-law statements. They're easy to get. By the way, also on your sports book apps, your sports books will all tell you what your win-loss is. Also, it's due to the little work. They don't like giving it to you. Trust me. By the way, the casinos do not want you to have these, but you're legally entitled to get them. I want you to do that just to see how much money you blow during the year game. I'm glad you said that. New Year's Day is a great time. I mentioned that. Dr. Bob, and in my many years working with him, always used to say that about your sports betting ledger as well, which is learn, you know, do an autopsy on all your bets, sport by sport, type of bet within age sport. Because only then will you realize what you're good at, and then what you're not so good at, and try to figure out from that point, why is it that I'm not good at these

44:06certain things? That's great. Is it something that I want to continue doing? Do I have a fix for it, or is it something that I completely want to avoid? If you treat it that way, you'll be that much better of a better in all this. Yeah. And that's actually good to eliminate things you're worse at. Yeah. Now listen, it takes a lot of work. But if you're serious, you're going to do it. One of the great examples of it is some of the golf bettors. I think Matt Brown was super open about this. He was like, I realized I was just betting way too many futures. Like I had this massive leak on golf futures that I had to pay her back. This is one example. And I have to, I had so many things to talk about this hour's up. I'm sorry. No, it's impossible. I had football. I thought it was like halfway through the show. I looked up. I said, 30 seconds for the whole hour. Jesus. All right. Well, I'll see you guys next week. I like a good defensive battle. Can't wait to watch this. Oregon and Texas Tech. Don't forget, John Hanson with prop points is next. John's got Tom Brolyon with his best NFL prop bets followed by Money Moves with JVT. Then stick around for follow the money with Mitch and Paul and 4 p.m. Eastern.

45:08It's recent. The sports betting network happy new year to you. Enjoy.