A Numbers Game | February 9, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story now is now swam those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill, I like Xander gone V sent our number two of a numbers game and visa these sports betting that were V sent dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Series six of Channel 158 Gill, I like Sander Kelly Midland on this morning after Superbowl 60 a tradition unlike any other we do we do a Sunday Superbowl show I wear a blazer. The kids will call a blazer by the shirt jacket blazer and then I do the the show the money morning after and then I bounce and you out when you find find today well. Gonna pick up. Gonna pick up the lady and says go first and then yeah, your gentleman, you could just meet there. But no. It's not good fly. All right. All right. All right. We get tweets to be the book Fred Leonard's the worst thing that happened to the Patriots shutout bet was the May fumble slash Barnard touchdown. That game stays told to nothing. I really think the shutout was very live. It's an interesting comment because what I was thinking Fred was at 12 to nothing.

1:04If they kick a field goal, I'm live because then they would be forced the Patriots to not kick a field goal, right? Then they'd have to score touchdowns. That was my thinking at the time, but all for not John, John Fitzgibbons. Thank you guys for those regardless. You had angels in the outfield take over with Drake May's arm for two plays who just guided it perfectly that that shot from behind Drake May on the past to Hollins before the touchdown. Hollins. I don't know what the what the probability of that being complete was, but it had to be like 0.5% there was for a game that lacked, you know, consistent quality downfield passing. Like foot three or four or five passes, then you're like, how the hell did they complete that? I mean, that first dart old one, we talked about that one that barter, like, right, it was like, how did he squeeze that in? That was amazing. John Fitzgibbons. I will remember this Super Bowl as the one with the big party and surprise wedding in a sugar cane field with guest lady Gaga and Ricky Martin surrounded by a lousy football

2:05game. I realize I'm not hiding my Rams fan who had well the, uh, after when Ricky Martin showed it by, I think I speak for millions of Americans, was that Ricky Martin? That was the first thing. I did not watch a second of after Jessica Alba was dancing. Jessica Alba was dancing, they had people up against the walls, weird, okay, but, um, let me just, uh, just Alba might be worth a rewatch. Yeah. She's there for like a second and a half and her mind then cal sheet, guess how much money exchange hands on cal sheet yesterday? Like in total, like, I don't really, yeah, I don't want to say handle because as Jack Larkin from sport trade has reminded us and as Joe Pita, um, is articulating right now. You know, there's definitely double counting of institutional market makers at all exchanges, slash prediction markets, uh, that does not occur at traditional books. So it's not quite double traditional handle, um, but you can, you can multiply it. I'd say it's 60% for proper comparison or perhaps, yeah.

3:09So yeah, let's say 60% of what of the number I'm about to quote is it would be the traditional handle number. But here's, here's the, here are the numbers. I guess real quick. Here. Go ahead. This is game. Super MVP props, mentions, everything, everything, $80 million. How much did you say? 80. You're joking, right? No, I don't know. I did. $866 million. That's crazy. It isn't. It isn't 500 on the money line spread total, 366 on all others of the 366. Guess how much was on bad bunny's first song? Oh gosh. Uh, half of it, $113.2 million. So again, take 60% of 866. That's about your handle. That's still staggering. That's incredible. That is an incredible amount of body. That's insane. Insane of the mess. Actually, my was bad guest was we were sitting here yesterday looking at MVP and I said to you, oh my god, there's over $40 million already on this and it was like early in the morning.

4:13By the way, uh, so that was the, the winner of first song, I should probably be thorough about it was T.T. McPreglinto. Do you have that one, Kelly? Obviously. Yeah. I did not see a second half time. It was not a statement, not anything that was just getting political, are you? I don't think Kelly Midland on politics, I'm like, Super Bowl halftime almost every year. I'm like, great. I've got 35 minutes. Like, they did so long. I know. I know a political statement when I hear one. Do you know the time? By the time I got back to the couch, it was, it was just wrapping up and I was still blown away. It was still going. Sounds like you enjoyed another half time show. Dead grow shell. As big of a game as there was last night, Veson's Hornets play the East leading Pistons tonight in the Queen City. Hopefully our boys pick up with win number 26 in the March to 30. Dude. There's there's some big games that you have being college basketball like you. Jason H 11, although I had profitable Super Bowl. I feel like I left a lot on the table. I didn't take advantage in game like you did. Gail time to focus on college hoops and golf. Do you know of a good golf betting podcast?

5:14It's a good question. It's got a long shots. Got a long shot. Kelly Billin Matt Brown West Reynolds. Um, who's your bear 85 says three best games were all bears games. Yes, Daniel's better than May. If he can stay healthy, but CW says number one quarterback in that draft. He's a Caleb guy. He wants Caleb first. He said he's a Caleb's first. I think it will be very interesting to look back in a few years and have this conversation. I'm kind of believer in all three of them. Hey, man, Bo Nix is a fourth dude, right? Yeah, you know, I mean, and then there's Jay, and then there's Jay Jay McCarthy. And then there's Jay Jay McCarthy. And then there's Michael Pentax rank, uh, rank the four others real quick. Just top your head for others besides Daniel's May. Oh, Caleb was the other one we just said, I'd said three others. I said, okay, rank those. Pentax McCarthy and, yeah, but we're next in next next. That was the other one. Yeah. Well, Nix would be four would be the next one, right? I don't know.

6:14I don't think Pentax is very good. Like I said, I said, whatever the next one, what after the top three that you just mentioned? Okay. I don't know that everybody would say I would put him fourth to. Yeah. I put Nix fourth. Besides, besides Jayden, where you going, Dan, you're going Daniel's Caleb May, Nix. I'm going. Yes. In that order. Okay. That's where I'm going. And then I mean, I don't think what was my comment about Pentax, whatever the opposite of pocket presence is that he's got. I think a lot of people would agree. It's those four. Yeah. I don't know that everybody would agree with us that Nix is fourth in that. No, I think you're right. I don't think any, I don't, I don't think many people would agree that Jayden's one, right? Um, real quick before we get to your golf, can we just look at, can we just look at next year's, uh, next year's Super Bowl odds real quick, because I was sure I was supposed to do this earlier. But just the headline for me on this is how many teams are 20 to one or shorter, Kelly? Because the Seahawks and the Rams are the short shots at plus nine, 50. But you have eight, nine, 10, 11 other teams that are 20 to one or sure.

7:18So 13 teams total, remember, there's only 32 teams in the NFL. 14 of them are 20 to one or shorter. The Jags are 22 to one. But after the Seahawks and Rams, it's bills at 11 to one, Eagles, Pats, Ravens, all 13 to one, Packers and Lions, 14 to one, Chargers and Chief 15 to one, nine or 17 to one, Broncos, 18 to one, Texans, 20 to one, and then the Jags 22 to one. These are courtesy of draft Kings. That's the headline to me, Kelly, the parody of this, right? We just went through a season where everybody had flaws, but maybe again, the Seahawks and Rams having the fewest, but so many teams, literally, we just put 14 teams on the board, almost half the league at 22 to one or shorter. It's incredible. It is. I don't ever remember it being like that. Note from who did I subbed Fox to eat this out earlier? They've been four. Chiefs open, 15 to one to win the Super Bowl. He's quoting MGM odds, we have drafting sides, whatever, 15 to one, both places. They're longest preseason Super Bowl odds since Patrick Mahomes first year as a starter

8:21and when we went over this last week, that was the team where our eyes went because of that, right? Well, if Mahomes is going to be Mahomes again, and the Chiefs are going to improve 15 to one, seems awfully, again, short term memories. Let's not have them. Yeah. Remember the Chiefs now schedules, schedules are going to come out, right? You're going to have all these moves, the draft, all these numbers will change. Chiefs are not going to have a first or second play schedule, right? It's just going to be easy, peasy. I can't get away from, well, I can't get away from looking at the line. It's every time we flash up any of these futures or next year because we know what their schedule is going to be like, but I don't, man, the Seahawks and Rams, and I'll keep going back to it because I'm not, I don't think there's a massive difference between those two teams, but those two teams, I think, proved throughout this entire season that they are headed shoulders above everybody in the NFC, which I still think is a more powerful conference right now than the AFC, but may I, they're, they're just better than everybody. Trick of Columbia skins, 60 to one, 60 to one on a related note, 60 to one.

9:25Yeah. All right. Kelly had himself a day yesterday in golf. There are a couple of these teams though, like are, it might going to be able to contain myself from a bill's bet if they actually add a wide receiver who could catch a ball and like a couple pieces on defense. Probably not. Yeah. Help out. Josh Allen for God's sakes. Yes. Help him out. And I know James Cook exists. I really want to give you more than two minutes for this, Kelly. Oh, it's all good. But this was a great day for you. It was good. It was you and I were talking about it a bit off here. It's the, like, I feel like I was finding my hit my stride last week and it's, there's something with golf betting because you do tennis. I do golf and we, like I talk about all the time of golf, how you're really, you're putting a lot of your money into these top 20 top 40 matchup markets. That's really how you keep your bank rule of float throughout the season. How you true, at least how I make money, betting golf is in those markets and the outrights. Okay. When they happen, they happen. And that's great. It's tough when you, like I've had the past couple of weeks, I felt like I was really dialed in it. And it is something to feel like you are dialed in and cash some of the top 20s and everything.

10:27It hits another level when you hit an outright and you actually get that guy home. And it was, yeah, do it was going to be tough. I said, I said it with you on Friday. I think after God are up opening round, but I said it on long shots last week too. Look at those top 20s. We kind of always do. Who's your last, you know, who's the last guy? Who are you going to be angry at about yourself if he wins the tournament? My guy that I had said to Matt Brown when he asked that question, was it Decky Matsuyaba? So it was, it really felt like it was going to be tough. And Hedecky, things that, as we, we document so well, you remember the losers way better than you remember the winners, right? This was God are up one quote unquote, Decky blew this tournament. And it was like, you just never get lucky like this. You never, it just feels like you never get lucky where things actually go wild like that at the end of a golf tournament and you're the last guy, Stan. And by, by the time God are up, got in the clubhouse, you know, I know you were focused elsewhere. Okay, you got to 16 under, but not only Decky was still out on the course with a lead, there were multiple other guys out on the course, still that could easily have caught God

11:30are up or passed him. So shocking. He got home. But yeah, every top 20 hits, Maverick McNeely, one shot away from that top 10 hitting burger, top 40. Great tournament. Awesome Sunday. Good for you, man. Good for you. Man, it happened to you again. Yeah, man, speaking of golf and Super Bowl 60 West Reynolds on the other side. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets to have the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vs in pro back on the numbers game, life from circa kill Alexander Kelly, bedlet producer number nine, so much more than a producer Kelly will be here the rest of the week and next week Matt Brown will be in

12:33this chair. Yes. Both weeks are just this week. Both weeks, Maddie Brown in the house, Mateo Moreno, I believe question that Kelly thinks. By the way, we get texts. We get tweets Christopher Felica, are you familiar with this gentleman for Felica? He points out what we're talking about NFL futures, which I think is worth staying. We don't know if my homes is starting the season with the knee, there is that, right? And he says he's out on the lions. He's like, I think he said, I think we've seen that Ben Johnson was a key to their success. He's out on them. I think that is an entirely fair takeaway from the season, I think so. Chiefs 15 to want to win at all lions, 14 to one, Steve the proxy on Twitter. So it's possible to offer a good time, make money, not rip every customer off just because the demand would allow it. What a wild concept. I wonder why the South Point is always packed. What's the word on how the turnout was in the strip? Did Caesars fill their $900 seats? I'm not sure if they did, but he he's pointing to my Mishbucha, Chrissy Andrews, the

13:33drink menu at the South Point, everything affordable. It's wild. Everything affordable. I can't remember what I was talking about with that last week, but it is everything we talk about with the strip and everything in yes, we crush some of these places sometimes or some things, but like, I mean, Green Valley Ranch, the South Point Red Rock Durango, these places are never quiet or slow. Local casinos in town. It's wild. We don't call it currently only 28 says, Estamos de Goroz, Senor Kelly, Legusta, Estamos de Goroz, meaning, see, are we sure that you like? Are we sure? I guess is what he's saying. That's interesting. The numbers, guys, been a lot, been a lot of big time jocks at Michigan State, but the kid, Kenneth Walker, the third was something else. First play of his Spartan career was a 75 yard touchdown run and it only got better from there. He got Mel Tucker paid until he wasn't, yeah, that didn't end well yesterday's MVP was the Heisman. He should have, he should have won. Joe Pita adds about Kenneth Walker, which I thought was a great memory, says I completely

14:34forgot. Joe says about the very high scoring Wake Forest teams where Sam Harman would do the RPO by literally freezing gameplay before deciding to hand off or not. Kenneth Walker was part of that backfield. That offense was unstoppable. Remember the 62 to 59 lost in Louisville, which ended their undefeated season. Yes. They did. Colin's worth had the good comp yesterday that one play where Walker set it the line of scrimmage, let it develop and that was the levy on bell kind of play. Remember how levy on, levy on bell got to the point where we would just sit there. And it was just really, he would wait like two and a half seconds. I'm like, okay, let me on the play started. And finally, K flow just for planning purposes with the Superbowl and Valentine's Day next year with the NFL leaning to Al Green like ballad singers or go heavy with Tay Tay, a lot of smaller said, et cetera, since nothing screams building unity, liken. And this is K flows words, like an angry chick singing about a bad breakup. Wow. Okay. Well, it has some musical thoughts and more. We'll talk his college hoops play of the night. We'll talk Superbowl 60 and golf with him.

15:34He joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You follow him on Twitter at Wes Reynolds one. And of course, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. How you doing? Wes? I'm good. Gilla. How are you? Good. What do you think about the halftime show? You enjoy it? I did enjoy it, actually. And I thought, you know, for the last several months, but regardless, and I'm not making any political statements here, but regardless of what side you're on, I feel like for the last several months since San Benito was announced is the halftime Superbowl act. We've had some of the dumbest discourse I have ever heard in my life. And I am relieved that at least it is over for the time being, but it'll be something else tomorrow. It was the absolute dumbest discourse. It's like, we have one of the biggest artists in the world, like he is Taylor Swift beyond, say, level in terms of a draw. And if he ever decides to do American dates, he is going to sell out every stadium in this country when he decides to do US dates on his tour.

16:36And you have a big popular act. And I thought the show was cool. I thought I thought the set up and just the set design was cool. I thought it looked like a bunch of fun, hot, sexy people having a great time at the halftime show. And the midst of doing that was showing 15 minutes of culture and saying, Hey, this is part of Reacon culture and demonstrating it for a global audience. And and it was cool and it was fun. And I don't know what all the fuss was about. I thought the halftime show was a big success. Well, I'm glad I asked that question. That was a very thorough answer. Thank you, Wes, for that. How did your Superbowl 60 go, betting wise? Pretty solid. A couple we gave away laid, a couple of those props laid that we sweat out that didn't go the way. But it ended up being profitable. Former Hoosier AJ Barner helped carry the day with the anytime touchdown, had the under on the game and then talked myself out of betting the side.

17:37I remember the day after the championship games, the championship games, I think we all like Seattle. And then when you get two weeks, you kind of talk in yourself out of it. It's like, Oh, man. Am I seeing this wrong? Is my first instinct wrong? And your first instinct is usually right because I maintained all year that nobody was really great in the NFL. There wasn't really a great team. But the team that was playing great at the end was Seattle. And I think there was a couple turning points late in the season, the game against the Colts, where they were down in the final minute to Philip Rivers, by the way. I think we forget that. It was 18 to 16 where where Myers had the six field goals to win. And then the comeback against the Rams, where they were way down and they had the, the two-point conversion where the ball's kind of sitting there and Sharpen A picks it up and they end up beating the Rams. Well, then what they did, then they kind of turned it on. They went to Carolina and Carolina had had to try to clinch the AFC or the NFC South and they go destroy them. And then they played the 49ers twice and hold them to nine points.

18:39So maybe at the end of the year, Seattle was kind of a great team because I didn't think we had a great team in the national football league really all season. It wasn't like last year where you had, I think the chiefs were clearly the team to be. And then the Eagles kind of became that in the NFC and you felt like we had the best two teams in the end. You didn't know if you had the best two teams in the end here. And, you know, and I ended up talking myself out of betting Seattle. I didn't bet in New England, but I ended up talking myself out of doing that and very much regret that because I thought New England got a little bit exposed last night. Maybe the schedule will finally caught up to him in the biggest game in the season. Yeah, it is. And I will just say personally, also it is just, it's very gratifying when you believe something, you have two weeks run up to a game, you say it a hundred times, you go with it betting wise. And then the game manifests as you went, it was not a great NFL season for me, but the Super Bowl was just follow the conviction. Real quick. God bless. Football, too. Oh, I know what you're about to say. That's football because I just heard former who's your AJ Barter from West and Wyatt

19:40Thompson just walked through the studio in full Michigan gear because his former Wolverine scored a touchdown last night. This is butter. Of course, you started his college football career and he had played his last year at Michigan. Everybody's claiming him now. Oh, that's awesome. That's right. In a moment, that only matter. Well, I'll claim that plus 250 for the any time touchdown. I know. Hey, hey, hey, you guys, you guys can, you guys can share them and it was as a national championship. So I eat. I don't care. That's right. Okay. So take that. Tom check. Real, real quick. You, if you, if I forced you were at West and I know this is not the real world, but if I forced you to play at NFL team to win the title next year, where does your, where does your money go? Hmm. Uh, you know what, the San Francisco 49ers at 17 to one, I'm seeing I'm sure that there are better prices out there. I just think the injuries and I give credit to cow, to cow Shanahan.

20:41I know they got whacked by the Seahawks twice late in the season, but the injuries, I think were just too much for those guys and that's why they're always a little bit of a risk. But at full strength, would you have party for a full season healthy or you have McCaffrey, you get those receivers healthy, they never had a healthy receiver core all year. And I think the defense is very solid, even though they now lose Robert Sala. Of course, he leaves his defensive coordinator, but the 49ers are always kind of that team in the middle that are kind of just lurking under the favorites. So they would be certainly one I would gravitate towards how many, what percentage of the audience right now is screaming at the rate is screaming at the radio going electro magnetic field. Santa Clara, did they get mentioned on the broadcast last night? No, I don't know. I don't know. I didn't catch it. I think it did before, but not during the broadcast itself. That's as good a pick as any, by the way, West, I would say at 17 to one on the Niners. So quick, college hoops, you do have one play tonight. Yeah, and this is always a weird board on Monday because you don't get a lot of the power for power five conferences as it were.

21:43So let's go to the fifth and the power five and that's the big east. I played a little bit of Xavier in the first half plus nine against St. John's. Of course, St. John's got the big win on Friday night in the garden over Yukon and St. John's and Yukon are clearly the two best teams in the big east and there's a big gap. There's been off for about a week. They lost by 30 plus last time against Yukon. Of course, it's junior Patino versus senior Patino here, Richard versus Rick, Richard bringing Xavier in. I think maybe St. John's. I wonder if they're a little bit slow to get out of the gate after that big win and Xavier just trying to play for any positive momentum at 12 and 11. I kind of like them first half a little bit more plus nine. They're 15 and a half of the full game. I may end up splitting half and half first half and full game. If I asked you if I put you on the spot here with college hoops, what's the West Reynolds one, two and three college basketball teams right now in a very clouded year of college hoops, probably Arizona one and Arizona and Michigan.

22:46It's like splitting hairs, like in terms of my power ratings, they're probably like 0.2 or 0.3 difference with them, but I would say Arizona, Michigan, and then I probably still go Duke. I know Duke got beat at the buzzer by Geraldine on Saturday, but that'd be my one, two, three. All right. One follow up college hoops question for West and then some golf with West Reynolds right here on a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network coming back, a numbers game on Visa, these sports betting network. Game lock from Circle Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas Galais and Kelly Midland and West Reynolds kind of join us for a second segment on this Monday morning after Super Bowl 60. Again, congratulations to all who bet the Seahawks pre flop in game at futures on them. It all culminates beautifully for that group, sorry to those who were on the other side of it. West one last college basketball question here before we move on, which is I feel obligated

23:48to ask you. I know maybe you don't have a play on this game, but Arizona is at Kansas. You said you had Arizona number one moments ago, um, toughest place in college hoops, maybe to play. How do you think this goes tonight? Yeah. Certainly one of them. And we have seen a little bit of a drop. I think this was three in the overnight and, uh, and now seen two and Kansas. Look, there are different team when Darren Peterson is on the floor. I hate to be Mr. obvious saying that, but they clearly are. There's just another dynamic and you saw it in the Texas tech game last week, where it's kind of a grind and who makes the big shot late. It's Darren Peterson, but you don't always know with with with the injury and I'll be the fact that he to me is clearly the number one pick in the draft. I think he's established that and I think DeBonza is established as a solid number two. And that's why you're seeing all of these teams, uh, teams tank. You like to say take up a loser, like what we saw with the Utah Jazz on Saturday night in Orlando, where they don't play Jaren Jackson, Jr.

24:49They don't play, uh, marketing. They don't play use of Nurgish at all in the fourth quarter. This isn't like, okay, let's keep them out to about the four minute mark. They keep them out. You know, I just wanted to throw that in when they had a half time lead, yes, a half time lead over the early making is getting absolutely obvious. And the reason why is because this Darren Peterson kid and also AJ DeBonza at BYU is really good. The game, uh, Kansas, uh, with the dynamic with Peterson. And I think Florian Badunga, uh, the former Indiana, Mr. basketball, by the way, uh, his defense, I think is really improved. And I think, you know, it's going to be interesting here to see if Arizona can handle that on the road. But Arizona, every time somebody throws something their way, they've come up big. They did it against BYU a couple of weeks ago, even though BYU made a late run. So no play for me, at least at this time, maybe a small lean to the over at one 53 and a half. Yeah. Um, it's funny that the Peterson game against Texas tech, how you described it, I almost felt

25:50like, is he hits the, uh, the off balance splash three to tie it before hitting the three that ends up being the game winner? And I almost felt like the announcers, like, just took it for granted almost. Like they weren't as mesmerized as I thought they should have been like, it's like he's the most high player on the court and he comes through again. Uh, it's interesting with debaunts. Uh, I'll just speak for, uh, I shouldn't speak for him. But I think if I just quote Todd Wischneff, I think he would say he thinks debaunts is a little overrated, heading into the draft. Like if he goes up against differ competition, it may not work out as well. I'm curious if you believe that to some degree. Well, maybe there's some credence to what Todd was saying. If you're basing it off like Saturday, the late night game against Houston, but Houston man, they're hard to score on. Like they're one of the best defensive teams in the country. And Kelvin, Samson has always had good teams down there. And really, wherever he's been defensively. And yeah, he had to work his butt off to get, to get his shots and to get touches.

26:52But I think he has a big time athletic ceiling. He's not maybe quite the finished product that a Peterson is or as much of the natural score that Cam Booser is, uh, uh, down there at Duke or Booser. I think probably would be putting that number three spot. But there's a reason why when you look at the draft white, my Indiana Pacers, by the way, with the zoo botched trade, they protected themselves one through four and 10 through 30. It was an interesting caveat they put in the trade because five through 10 are a bunch of guards that like don't help the Pacers. So they clearly see the top four as Peterson, debaunts, uh, Booser, probably Caleb Wilson out of North Carolina, although Kingston Flemmings is a guy that is surging up the draft board, certainly in the lottery, the guard for Houston. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for a little pivot. It's a special West Reynolds edition of Country Club. And let's do it. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Crew's trying out a new shot. Oh, look at these guys back there. Danny, very natural reason to lose.

27:56Is that Isaiah there on the left? Yeah. Larry, get the man you had out of here. Yeah. Yeah. Pro Indiana and Florida station. That's the crew. Everybody Isaiah on the left. Danny in the middle. Who was on the right? I missed. I can't see through a camera. Big wide a rock. Was that wide right? Okay. Who's why it? There you go. One of them is giving me the bird. Look at that. There's a lingering camera. They just kept giving them airtime there. Okay, guys. Uh, West, uh, sorry about that little little side. We had to give a shine to our crew back there who's always so supportive of our country club. And with glow sticks, we love them. So now we have a camera focused on them. Uh, how did your Phoenix open go? Not as well as Kelly's congratulations by the way that Kelly, uh, for, uh, being on Chris Godder up. So, uh, had a couple guys and then they faded on Sunday. It's kind of been the story of the year so far. So, uh, uh, they're not going to let me, uh, allowed in the country club, man, unless I hit an outright very soon because, uh, I'm getting a dry spell as people on Twitter

28:56are telling me very frequently, uh, over the last few weeks, uh, God forbid you don't hit an outright for a couple of weeks, you know, you're, you're, you're, you're from everybody. No, no, no. I mean, I've been, I guess I've been on, you, I guess I've been on a seven year lucky streak. I don't know. Yes. Yeah. So, you know, uh, so I didn't, didn't get it home though, uh, because last year started out so fast, but, but that's golf betting. Last year started off super fast. It three bombs in a row and this year can't even hit the board, uh, really. So, uh, you know, gotta keep plugging away and, and, and it can beat you down, especially, uh, uh, when you get criticism from people that don't know what the hell they're talking about, uh, on social media, uh, in terms of how you bet golf. And there's a reason why, you know, on a big launch and I'm betting like 0.1 or 0.2 units because I know I'm not going to hit them most of the time. You do you, Wes, you keep doing what you do. I just want to ask this before we move on to Pebble Beach, which is, um, Scotty Shep, who Scotty Shepler was a million strokes behind, um, not quite a million, but you get

29:57the idea. And people were betting him. I ended up Saturday mid round betting him 11 and one. I think you bet him 15 to one at that point, yeah, right around the same time and because he was surging and I said yesterday after Kelly and I did the show, I'm like, watch, he's going to finish one stroke behind and that's it. That's ultimately what ended up happening. But isn't this just another piece of evidence where you're like, this dude is, it's by far the greatest golfer in the world. It's not even close. Yeah, no question about it because I think everybody, uh, you have that fear factor, which is definitely real. And we're always want to compare him to Tiger, which I think is unfair because quite frankly with with Scotty, I'm not putting him yet on that level because, you know, he's still got some records to try to catch him with, but he's against a better competition. That's one thing I will say for Scotty Shepler, I think this game and this tour has a lot deeper than it was when Tiger was on his role and that that's not taking anything away from him. But you look even this week, go into Pebble Beach where Scotty's the favorite top 10 each

31:02of the last two years, he's never won here. But now you've got all the European guys coming over for a signature event for their first time. Like now you got Rory McElroy in this field. Now you add Tommy Fleetwood to this field. You add some of the other European players, Ludwig O'Barris played here already, Robert McIntyre. So now it seems like the real full McCoy with the exception of a couple top live guys at this field this week with only eight players. Let's flash up those Pebble Beach odds if we can, guys, because I'm curious what both Western and we don't have already Scotty Shepler, plus 260 Rory McElroy, plus 1325 Fleetwood 25 to one C Wu Kim, who just won't stop 26 to one as Andrew Shoffley 27, Hovelin 28, half McNeely and Justin Rose 29, and then we dropped it out into 31 were Cameron Young and Russell Henley. Give me the, the, the, the difference between Shepler and Rory, plus 260, Rory plus 1325. My goodness. Scotty Shepler is minus 170 to top five.

32:05I mean, we say this every week, but that's Rory we're talking about now. That's the difference between Shepler and Rory. Obviously long shots later this week with U.S. Kelly and Matt, but just a preliminary thought on the odds that Kelly just spit out there. Yeah, and that aforementioned Rory McElroy is by the way, the defending champion here at Pebble Beach. So whether it's going to play a factor, it is only the two courses now. It used to be three, and it's still a pro-am, but now they're done on Friday, by the way, like they don't go into the Sunday and into the weekend because of the shorter field. Looking down a little bit, look, you might have to have something on C Wu Kim. I had a placement market on it, and he was right there in the end. Third, second, sixth, 11th, third and fourth is last six global starts. So you got to probably have something on C Wu Kim, at least an outright or a placement, but a lot of guys that are playing good golf coming in, nobody playing better than God or up his one, two of his last three. Matt Fitzpatrick, I thought played very well last week, Jason Day had a runner up a couple

33:05of weeks ago. So could be a good price to try to go mid-range hunting, but then again, you're sweating out of Sunday run from Scotty Shepler. You know, what's just to take a step back, this is like every year, yeah, we see these guys that get out of the gate hot. I don't know if I remember a year like this in recent history with like five, six names that just every turn right, C Wu, you just went through the finishes. Jake, Matt, Pearson, Cody, like you're talking, it's kind of automatic. I'm just going back to top 20s on these guys every week. They're playing incredible golf. Like, do you remember a year like this with some of these guy, God, or up two wins already? There's always a couple, but maybe not with the win equity, you know, guys that are getting top fives and top 10s, but yeah, look, you got to ride those guys on the form, at least if not for the outrides, at least for the 20s, 30s and 40s and place points. Wes always appreciated, man, thank you so much for the time. You bet, guys. Thanks for having me. Wes Reynolds, everybody at West Reynolds one, that's the number one on Twitter. We will talk about more football really things, including you can already bet on MVP for

34:07next year. What's up? A numbers game on FISA, the sports betting network, sharp plays dot com. Check them out. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros, scan the QR code for more. The sharp place, lose the the, just go to sharp plays dot com. We get to eat speed in the book. The numbers guys as Wes Reynolds, the voice of reason regarding sports and politics, Kelly and Wes very political on this, a red run for office. The Reynolds Biddle and take it on man, who wouldn't vote for that? Charlie D USA number one, he says, have a great vacation, Gil Weller, thank you, sir. Brian Schaefer, Gil Kelly's favorite college football team is Florida state, West likes Indiana, Felica likes Miami, who does Gil root for in college, whoever I'm betting on. Hey, gulf. But to answer your question directly, the tough jumbo's baby, let's go jumbo's man and

35:09the jumbo's beat the, the Amherst Lord Jeff's throw out the records when those do, I have told Gil this story, probably 17 times this club, one of the, one of the greater bonding moments in me and my father's just life, life was helping my move my sister into college at Tufts. And we had to escape probably get out of the move in hell and we went to jumbo's practice. And oh boy, was it entertaining, it was entertaining, D three power all the bad reasons. Hey, man, who's that, it was that receiver for USC though, was that that kid went to Tufts, made an amazing catch college football play of the year. Do remember you texting me was a USC was the, I think so, um, Martal J best weekend outcome of my life. Listen to this one, Martal JD, including Thursday, he said Stafford MVP 46 to one, listen to Drew's take on the shutout started looking for exact outcomes played the first half nine to nothing hit it 250 to one hit literally everything obligated to take the day off.

36:10And I do think that's your obligation, Martal J. That was my takeaway as well. I usually really take the day off for God's sakes. And Bobby Nuckel says we should flex seal at least, at least one item on air weekly. Oh, yeah, this was, uh, this was in response to an Isaiah tweet tagging us earlier, Phil Swift, my man, uh, tweeted last night, me and Zeal, me watching all these commercials like cool, but can they saw a boat and half and put it back together with tape? Don't think so. Even Phil Swift's on there talking crap man, I'm just telling you right now, I'm not getting on a boat that's been flex sealed. It's not happening. Usually I would do it. Uh, it's Phil Swift, by the way. What do you keep calling Phil Steele? Oh, Phil Swift. Yeah. Did you say Swift? Yeah, I figured, no, I think it did say steel. Yeah. Thank you. Or real quick, because you made a point there on that last minute with West that again, from a handicapping standpoint for, for a sort of new betters needs to be made. And this is going to be sort of obvious to old school betters. But, you know, you identified, or at least you asked West about it, but you identified like a handful of golfers who, and you don't remember putting like, I guess I can just

37:10ask you, but you, I think you said you don't remember ever having like five golfers that have consistently gone top 20 here week after week after week, this early in the season. Yeah. I could easily be wrong, but it does feel like every season we start off, and there's like, okay, one, two, three guys that you've got not only circled heading into the season, but they get off to a hot start. And I think that would be the case with a lot of the guys I'm talking about. But just, I mean, like West, no, almost never says something like that about, about a golfer, especially C. Wu Kim. It's like some of these guys at this point, I don't, and C. Wu's done it on all different types of courses. He's not that long ahead, or this is not a course last week that should be perfect for his game. It's just the form is there out of the gates. And whilst other guys are trying to shake off the rust, get back. I mean, Sheffield was awesome over the weekend, right? Didn't look great in that first round. I'm asked one of the worst rounds I can remember seeing at him. It's just so many skies. And there's the league was pointing out if he even just shoots even par, he wins this tournament, right? The first round.

38:11Yeah. Yeah. It's just, it's wild. I pulled up, pulled up a few of them right here. But it's like Maverick McNeely. I've been betting him, right? He 13 last week, he was over at the farmers, he, uh, was 10th solo at the Sony. He was, uh, where did he finish up the Sony anyway? It's him. C. Wu. It's Jake nap. Pearson. Coody. Like I think Jake naps top 20 at every week. So Pearson. Coody. Godoreps got two wins. It's just, it's insane. The, what these guys are doing out of the gate. And we're talking for four or five weeks now. The point I'm trying to make with this is, is that so this is, you know, one of the, one of the things in handicapping again, so many ways to skin the cat as we like to say, uh, in handicapping. But one of them is, you know, a lot of model betters, right? Folks who do betting by models, they're going to look at something like that and say to themselves, you know, that's not, not quite enough sample size for me to go on, right? The more sort of sacredly model, uh, driven betters. And you know, I do the same thing in tennis, right?

39:12If, if Alexander Eala comes out of nowhere and has this streak, uh, Marta Kostjech earlier this year, there's been any number of tennis players that have these flare ups at times. And I'm just saying that that is one little window into sometimes being able to, uh, the baseball example I like to use is Jacob DeGrom. Before everybody knew he was great when he was called up by the Mets, he had this like second half of the season thing where we were betting baseball was like, oh my God. If you, if you're aware of what his underlying numbers are at fan graphs, forget the old school modelers who need to see like a more robust sample size, this guy's numbers are so it's like the ego thing, right? At the beginning. So I'm just saying this is one little kind of window where betters who aren't model driven can sometimes really have good success early when the market hasn't caught up to it. I agree. And you, I mean, you hit the perfect words there at the end because it's, it's every week. I'm going back to it.

40:12And like Jake Napp, Pearson, Cody, like these numbers are still long on these guys. And I like look, both of them are long off the tee, Pebble Beach is not really a course that you go looking for that aspect in a game. I don't, I don't know that it matters. I don't know that that matters to me at this point. It just goes to what you're talking about. I don't think the markets fully caught up to what they're doing consistently with their games. Uh, look, Ryan Gerard's way, uh, really long again this week. He's another guy that's been incredible. The multiple second place finishes this season already. These are ones. I'm Ricky Fowler. I was on last week. Top 20. He's, he's long odds. He will. I think he fits a little bit better at Pebble, um, and, and yeah, man, it's just wild. It's wild. The cousin of that bringing this back to football, right? The cousin of that is that we're talking about golf. We're talking about tennis around my baseball, baseball, a team sport. But I would say an individual sport disguised as a team sport, right? Because every play begins with one guy throwing a ball to a guy with a bat. And then everything starts from there. So I think that's a, and they play, right?

41:12They play baseball every day. They play tennis every day. They play golf every week all year round. So you do, um, you are able to see these, even in a short span, right? Even in a short span, you're getting actually a, a underrated amount of data, um, whereas in the NFL or college, yes, right? So the sport that we all love the most, the sport where I can walk out in this sports book and everybody has an opinion on, right? Before the Superl after the Superl anytime during the year, everyone in this, in this casino has an opinion on the NFL. We talk about it the most because it's the most popular sport. We've talked many times about, um, how, you know, was Roxy Roxboro said to me at Pierrot's one day, he said, Gil, nobody beats the NFL long term, nobody, right? It's a small sample size sport and we always have to kind of keep that in mind. That's why NFL betting to me is much harder, at least the way that my brain works than these other than the other sports that we've mentioned is because ultimately, what are we really

42:13talking about? We're only talking about college football, we used to be now college football plays more games, but we're talking about a 17 game season. That's it. And you have moving parts, right? With every team, it's not an individual sport. So it makes it, if you have a bad NFL season, right, pre-flop betting the NFL, does that mean you're a bad better? We say we will. Will Hill is a really good better, but he has, but he has, you know, on the short sample size, by the way, the sample size is already small on the Megapod, we only do three games a week, right? So it's even that much more ridiculous. Anyway, I'm getting to the bigger point of his just, let's keep in mind when we're talking about the NFL and when you're judging yourself or judging others, it's just a different animal. It really is. And the sample size is just too small to relate to anything. The last thing before you let you jump in here is, we've got people who do really well in contest for like two years in a row. Even that's like 170 games over two years. I know, it's, I see 170 tennis matches in two weeks.

43:17It's perfectly sad. I think for, and I think for people like me and you who are, I think the golf and tennis seasons are so long, we get so much data that compiles and, yeah, you can have bad NFL seasons. You can have good NFL seasons. I think it is. I don't know about you. It is tough for my brain that sometimes, I mean, you'll hear me on the show all the time. We're in week 11. I'm like, I don't know how good this team is. Like, I really have no idea. We kind of get to like this point, the playoffs, the Super Bowl, you're like, all right. I feel like I've got a good handle of these teams that are left-guilded. And before you don't, the season's over and rip out the page because all these teams are going to change and you're going to start next season. Derek Dixon on Twitter was to have Kelly go over the T18 payout for Rick Dawg. Top 20. Oh, it was a dead heat in other words at T18. Is that right? Yeah. Yeah. This is a look, man. This is goes back to betting these placement markets. I didn't get that hated on that because I take that out of my mind. I just bet it were ties pay and full. And look, you're going to, and who does bet MGM does and stations, bet MGM and stations

44:19here in Nevada. They do ties pay and full. Look, I think it, it's actually probably one of my golf shortcomings, like what things that I could be better at is taking more time to, to crunch the numbers and what makes sense of the dead heat market versus the ties paying full market by Linda Q who we've had on the show does a great job with that every year. And there's usually a little bit more value left over in the end of the day where the dead in the dead heat markets because you're getting longer odds. But man, it's a brutal feeling with, uh, yeah, I tweeted that in. I know when he get dead, he dead heat math is terrible. I don't remember MVP odds being up this early, but we will dive into it for the NFL next