A Numbers Game | February 4, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00The numbers told the story now is now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with kill I like Xander gone decent hour number two of a numbers game and beast of these sports betting network Feeson dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV series sex of channel 158 skill Alexander Kelly Bidlin alongside. I just saw this tweet thanks to Felica and Will from NBA Central Where they said the heat are reportedly trying to land Yannis and just John Marant without giving up BAM or norm powell Per Steve Popper and somebody responded somebody goes I'm trying to bag Sydney, Sweden and Sophie of a gar are without giving up my niece on Ultima Please leave it just to that The job Miami heat situation is interesting Because like I think in theory he he would fit there, but like this is The Miami heat just hired the assistant coach that was with Memphis that brought his offensive style to Miami that

1:01John Marant hated in Memphis, but like you could get him on the cheap So I it's gonna be interesting to watch that one. I meant what I said earlier that there was a package for Desmond Bayon last year There was one for Jared Jackson just now. There has yet to be one for John Marant. Yeah Yeah, it says a lot. Oh, this is by the way. This is a To credible. We got to show this. This is the 2018 lottery for the NBA draft Mm-hmm. These are the lottery picks of the 2018 NBA draft remember This was the last true tankathon that got the phoenix sons Deandre Aiden Who ended up being a cog in the wheel that got them to the NBA finals by the way, as you mentioned Like thank God because I don't know what he said what he's going to be able to say for the rest of his career But with the tray young to Washington deal in the Jared Jackson junior to a pardon me to Utah deals That on the heels of Luca go into the Lakers famously last year Every single player in that lottery. Can we go back to it guys? Let's throw it up one more time Shays in there as well, by the way, right? I mean great players Everybody's been traded. That's wild. Yeah, I mean that's the most shocking part, right?

2:01It'd be different if we were dunking on this draft like wow This is such crap like look back at how everybody got moved. Oh, let's look at touches Jared Jackson junior. Say Trey they're all in there all been traded. I guess the only one I mean got traded on draft I the in this might be the most shocking I think the only guy that's still left on a team with the the big logo next to it is Miles Bridges Which oh boy, he would have been the biggest long shot on here like as of a year and a half ago And by the way, you can make the argument that McHale Bridges got traded for the most Yeah, he did five first It's not an argument. It's just fact. Yeah, just fact. Yeah. Well, I mean you could you could debate players I guess right right yeah, but But yeah terms of just capital like that. I mean trade look. I got sold on the cheap like That's wild. What a league? What a league? What a league? We had tweets being in the book by week picks When will you discuss fun props regarding bad bunny some PPH have decent limits? Yeah, I sort of said for the beginning by week. You may have missed it

3:04I did the national anthem. This is the first year where I'm out on that on on halftime Because yeah, you're right. There's a lot of good stuff out there. It's first song is last song. Will you give Puerto Rico a shout out Which by the way, yes, I think it's heavily juiced. I think you will Will you give the Bayes shout out? I mean, there's so many different things. Will will he call out ice? Will a politician show up? Will Will Cardi B be on stage with them? There's lots of stuff, but I don't know enough like I can't tell you If DT may pregunt or New way by all or by late in all the doublet Lamudanza DTMF Kelly. Yeah, not only could I not tell you if any of those are going to be the first song. I can't tell you which is which Is that the most dad comment I've ever made on the show before? Yeah, yeah, I have become my father Probably I really I just don't know and I said I don't want to act like I have any insight I really do think that the last couple years Getting the leak on the set list Friday is still the best way to bend this although as we'll point it out

4:05I think last week the NFL is aware of these leaks So maybe they try to push back on that Yeah, I'm interested to see what happens with that type of stuff because that was that did come out What a couple weeks ago. I think I let you down by week by the way Yeah, it's a look at me. I do think the the point of caution there right is like we often complain about some of these markets Where we can't find somewhere to get down enough, but like you know, there's the early steps of that first where you got to be sure You know what you're betting and that is like if you're looking to get you know significant money down You better know what's gonna happen. Yeah, Brian Moran and I need to ruling on if I can check off Greg Peterson twerking on my numbers. Yeah, I'm sure you can't I felt like that was a twerk It was a half a twerk yet. You had to get the booty in the in the camera. That's right range. Right frame. Sorry ladies I can't believe you were stress pants Merrill bets morning fellows would do you have any recommendations for food and beverage for a suitable 60-party to reflect highlights From the San Francisco Bay Area any personal favorites to local staples. Thanks guys. Love the show as always. Thank you

5:06Merrill bets for a party meaning there's a lot of people For yeah, the the normal recommendations that I have to because if I was just giving you norwack and recommendations I would say hey go to let takeria and in the mission for burritos um I'll say for a group of people except I don't know if there's that there's TVs So this is a this is a tough question to answer right because normally that I would say go dungeonist crab and garlic noodles That fan long, but there's no TVs for a super bowl. So I'm not really sure I have a good food place For a big super bowl party with actual great San Francisco food Once again, I've let down the listener. That's two in a row I thought he was just asking for like San Francisco foods. Oh, okay. Well then dungeonist crab and garlic noodles at that long or crustacean Again burritos at let takeria in the mission now stuff. He should make right as he said party at home Oh, so like that reflect highlights of the city. I don't know make make clam chowder in a bread in a bread bowl

6:06Do that do clam chowder in a uh, what do you call it? What's the name of that bread again? Sourd sourdough bread. Yeah sourdough bread yuck Yeah, there we go. There's kelly's review on it. Or you just make a big bowl of rice errone right kill. Oh, yeah Nobody has that's the thing nobody does rice errone in San Francisco derby day day Running a mini marathon showering putting on a suit with slacks and knocking out press trivia all before 8 a.m Many and numbers game listeners yours truly included lucky to tick off one of those keep grinding hoops I meant to seize on that moment too like what if we just quizzed every guest that came on like uh most important I I battle in revolutionary war In the outcome of it right like president number 21 go Chester a Arthur by the way Jim to Altorio very sad news regarding the Washington post sports department Yeah, man poor one out for the post sports department. I can't get over it. I really can Okay, we got more to read on tweets, but let's get to this so Super Bowl MVP I have yet to bet the sam d'arnel now down to plus 120

7:06What am I waiting for? There's a number over there somewhere here in town that's better than that which I will take But sam d'arnel to me and plus money is still a great bet. What what's best you've seen 130 135. Oh, okay. Let's go Uh, sam d'arnel at plus 120 at draft kings drake may plus two thirty five jacks and spith and jigg but plus five fifty Kenneth walker plus six fifty So the market saying yeah, maybe it's not sam d'arnel Which I don't agree with Next Patriot by the way after drake may as we're a monday all the way at 28 to one You get a bet d'arnel here Yeah, I'll probably end up with something small on him It's I would like to do something more exciting and look further down the board But man, we've talked about this a lot. I'm with you. I think that's I think quarterbacks are still to buy far the most likely outcomes for both of these teams Do we run the stats on that kind of thing right here? There we have Super Bowl winners by position MVP winners by position No surprise Quarterback has been the winner

8:09Uh, let's call it seven of the lot. Let's go back to that guy seven out of the last nine years Seven out of the last nine years a quarterback has been the winner the only exceptions to that Cooper Cup and Julian Edelman in super bowls I'll do my Roman numerals here 56 and 53 before that Edelman being the longest shot of the bunch at 25 to one even Cooper Cup was only six to one Vaughn Miller the most recent defensive player back in Super Bowl 50 for the Broncos at 25 to one now just in terms of the entire Super Bowl Group all 59 that have been played quarterbacks by far out of 59 the other graphic guys here 34 34 quarterbacks out of 59 but really weighted You know even more so recently as we just documented 10 defensive players total is next Seven running backs, but that's really how it used to be in the NFL right right wideouts We just named two in the last 10 the five total and then one kick return to put return

9:09I believe that was Desmond Howard if I'm not mistaken For the Packers when they beat the Patriots when Bill Parcels was coaching the the Patriots back in the day So that's that's the breakdown of Super Bowl winners by position Um, and then the Super Bowl winners in the last 10 years So Vaughn Miller the most recent defensive player to win then of the 10 and we had we had co winners once Back when the Cowboys wanted Harvey Martin and Randy White I believe that was Super Bowl 12 if I'm not mistaken against the Broncos But again, that's not a thing that typically happened Yeah, so you were watching if you're watching at home 34 quarterbacks seven running backs five wide receivers 10 defenders The kick and put return to like you said if we go from just 1998 This is where I think it's it's interesting to see what's happened more recently right the quarterbacks continue Absolutely quarterbacks continue But you like you noted Gil the wide receivers right right wide receivers It's been five minutes the game has changed the game has changed And we've had three three linebackers one defensive back um running backs and defenders man

10:09Like this is a I know we want to go there But like you said this is kind of past past thinking and 1998 the last time a running back one Super Bowl MVP I'm guessing that was to Terrell Davis of the Broncos So Yeah, I mean that's it's quarterback and if it's not quarterback It's it's a wide out. It's basically what we're saying you had Von Miller 2016 Malcolm Smith 2014 So you know worth noting it still happened, but it's man that's that's how rare it is though right Dexter Dexter Jackson of the bucks the last defensive back to win that was after the 2002 season when he did it for the bucks one MVP And then Larry Brown we actually brought Larry Brown earlier on the show For the after the 1995 season with the cowboys I want to say he had three picks in that game is that true three am I overshade that for one Um and the other defenders besides Dexter Jackson Larry Brown Not secondary player so there it is and it is like if I was going to go to a defender like in this game Gil I'd still be looking for the guy that could rack up most sack strip sacks

11:10That type of thing kind of like we talked about saw him it yesterday as opposed to a defensive back I'm not I think that's asking a whole lot of a defensive back That's that's a recent list by one. I know Jake Jake Scott of the dolphins if you go way back in superl history There were there was another Deback to win it, but it's so rare So if you're thinking hey christian Gonzalez, it's just just the path to win it is so narrow We talked about betting some of those props. I just think it's a better way to go You same game parlay This should have been a segment we say for our Sunday I mean we'll run it back maybe we'll run it back Maybe that was the plan maybe that was the plan Maybe I should have said that out loud Coming back with a slew of guests here on a numbers game at visa these sports betting network You're here because you want an edge that's what separates listeners from winners But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools the data and the discipline And now so can you visa pro gives you access to the same real time insights the sharps use no secrets no fluff Just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with visa and pro

12:15You A numbers game on visa these sports betting network the biggest game of the year deserves more than a guess Beasts and Super Bowl betting guide is out now and it's built to help you bet the big game smarter inside this year's guide In-depth breakdowns both teams Steve Mackinan Super Bowl simulation with detailed player projections Most favorite prop bets picks at best bets for visa and hosting experts You can download the guide right now for just 1999 or become a visa pro subscriber get the Super Bowl betting guide included Along with daily best bets real-time betting splits AI-powered prop tools and 24-7 video on the visa and watch app Everything you need one game one edge finish football season strong head to visa.com slash guide that's vsin.com slash God did you see this yesterday with you it wasn't even yesterday. It was in the dead at night You and LV oh my god, I did see this Fresno state

13:16Uh, screw up is I mean unbelievable. So you and LV On the wrong side of absolute chaos at 2 a.m last night pacific time a three plus hour game 80 combined free throw attempts eight official reviews Thanks, which is uh, which is insane enough But then Fresno state down by five with seven seconds left They go on a seven nothing run in regulation to win it A game tying three with 1.5 seconds left U and LV does the thing where they throw it All the way down court no one touches it So Fresno state gets possession and do the basket the basket guy hits a two and wins it. Okay, that's funny I only saw the last two and I didn't realize seven points were made up. I only saw the last two shots That's incredible What I'm curious about because I didn't watch at them. How did they get the ball back for the three How did they how did they cut it from seven to five and then get the ball back for the three? Oh a flagrant I'm being told a flagrant

14:18So one of those that one of the reviews that we were just talking about so that yeah, so then they hit the three and then They throw the touchdown pass that goes incomplete on the other all the way the other another court So Fresno state gets the ball back and they score again unbelievable Man, we get tweets being in the book. I was appreciated from everybody Jason McKinney Missed the last couple of days due to work meetings and I'm not sure you've covered this But it's Roger could tell me and I felt going to be that arrogant to have big game 61 on Valentine's day What a cluster you know what that will be yes He is that arrogant. They are that arrogant and yes, it will be on Valentine's Day next year Superbowl on Valentine's Day Ladies built an excuse for everybody. Sorry Sorry, Saturday night Valentine's Day the most overrated holiday. Oh, it's terrible Here men you got to do something really what about the other 364 days where I do some And right I'll still do it. Let's leave it in right my sister lived in DC She took me to see Jordan score career low versus the bullets

15:18Went to Clydes for brunch read my first wash and a post-sport section. I miss newspapers man. Clydes is great in DC Clydes in northwest two locations by the way for Clydes actually won a Wisconsin Avenue now is there a second one still I was thinking of blackies of the other one Buddhist man saying when I grow up. I hope I have a job that I enjoy as much as this guy picture of you Kelly Feeling back laughing share Scotty Leisure suit Leisure suit Kobe guilt. Would you and Kelly agree even as a Lakers fan? I think the SGA Clippers trade is the worst trade Even worse than the Luca trade also. I don't understand the bad bunny hate people have I've been a fan since I was a kid bad bunny Donald Duck Tweety bird huge parts of my child. I don't even I don't even know if it's It's not even as much hate dude. I hate I just I can't remember so the last Super Bowl halftime show where I flat out her from people I just don't know that I just don't know I it's not hate at all I am Eaton different Brian Schaefer all the odds on the t-wolves from positive and negative on the honesty says meaning in minus numbers He's talking about C plus 420

16:20Yeah, no, that's job That's job over the place on Cal State I actually just I just played a little Kobe white. He said catch rate. He said Cal State odds did the same. Is that true? Was it Minnesota and minus money now? The last time I checked 733. Yeah, my stay is up to minus 223 Not sure what you were looking at there Brian. He says glad I went on Cal State made that bet early for big profit now Come on t-wolves make it happen. Well, they still might but it's not in it's not in minus money I have guilt a little bit a little bit on Minnesota and Golden State and for him to stay in Milwaukee I got him on plus numbers yesterday Minnesota and Golden State I have over 10 to 1. I'm gonna go. I will be okay if he gets moved either one of those It's got New York, Mess 16. Thanks, Gil I was one of the UNLV plus one and a half guys with a tough what a tough beat. Oh gosh the spread came into play too awful brutal Brian M says 2 15 20 27 the day after the Super Bowl is president's day. It's what people have been asking for for years

17:22Wait, so we have Valentine's Day followed by the follow the next day by president's day Oh, because president's day happens to be the third Monday of February and on the 15th that's It only only when the first Monday falls on the first. Do we get that? Wow What a cluster Derek quit. I heard Greg Peterson took Marshall versus Southern Miss got to remember the both teams were conference USA before joining the Sunbell both schools Dislike each other a lot. I see Southern Miss playing hard. I have Seattle minus four and a half Oh in the Super Bowl have a good Super Bowl weekend. You two Derek went through in the Super Bowl pick as well All right, uh, what's what are the current Yannis odds then Kevin? Yeah right now we have Stays minus 223 Minnesota plus 733 golden state plus 1011 Miami plus 1150 And then we drop all the way to Chicago at plus 3223. Let's go and say it again They are a little over 10 to one. Oh, I played them when they got to double digits last night to drop drop drop

18:27Okay, I mean look wait. I know we were talking a lot about this off air too We haven't like golden states still reportedly given the best offer. They're waiting on the sidelines Kaminga's still there like I think it's a lot of for if you're golden state or a golden state backer like you and me last night now I don't think anything's really changed like they've got the best offer in And I think Milwaukee's saying all these other teams like all right. We've got one What else can you guys do golden state should call every hour just be like it's still us. Yeah, still the best to offer Well still us Anyway, little more than 24 hours. I do not know kill like I know we've talked about the past couple days No idea what is going on with the Chicago Bulls right now like I don't know what the plan is I just played some Kobe white to be traded Minus 400 the the back court right now we went over some of these trades earlier This is who's on their roster Josh giddy Kobe white trade Jones and for any simons jade and ivy Mike Conley And I would assume who own their back court. I was gonna say they have no bigs They have no big they got six guards and like three of them are like the same human being

19:28So I mean yes, Kobe White has been expected to be traded from this team I assume he gets moved and this gets a little thinner, but man, it's a little odd right now Yeah Terry Elkins is about the UNLV thing he says they need a shot clock on these endless reviews And Sean's fox plays and we get ready to see the return of pocket rockets in Chicago They've made like eight guards now that deserve to play yeah, and Jaylen Smith and overpaid Patrick Williams No, he isn't overpaid because he went to Florida state go games What about actual NBA games that you have any players do have a bet so Okay, a couple and I actually I might have gotten turned on to one more Doing hard with handicapers JVT brought this up. So look, I think First off PSA, right? This is be very careful today, right? We saw how many guys get moved yesterday It's gonna be a lot of the same today and I'll point to a couple matchups like Timberwolves Raptors Timberwolves or in the middle of trying to execute him y'all to say into the Kubo trade of the Toronto Raptors Or the middle of trying to get them on a subonus in town I don't you don't know what players can be ruled out before lineups are now such a such a good point

20:29Yeah, so I just be careful be careful now. I do think JVT brought this up and I skipped right over this game Cavs Clippers tonight Comical right they are playing in LA the Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers I actually I kind of skipped by this one because okay the rosters are overhaul James Harden switching locker rooms that sort of thing I do I think I'm gonna play Cleveland here because there is this it's not about adding James Harden It's about removing James Harden from this Clippers team Itch I think is gonna take a little while for them to adjust so I haven't played it yet I think I will end up on Cleveland here tonight though definitely lean to that side that was a great point By JVT on that game the one I played last night put it in a visa calm although the numbers about the same still I played the spurs kill I really didn't think I was gonna get involved in another one of these matchups I'm backing on in the thunder and spurs this no I If I just had every dollar back that I've bet on this matchup this season my NBA season would be so much better right now The thunder spurs matchup this time. I'm actually on the spur side. So finally here with the spurs done take it L today

21:32both these teams six and four over their last 10 Oklahoma City keep an eye out for injuries today They've had lengthy injury report past couple weeks age a Mitchell right now questionable for this team You're not gonna have Jalen Williams in there A couple guys out for San Antonio Jeremy Sohan is out and then you've got Dylan Harper and Stefan Caspar questionable right now Expecting Harper to go and hopefully castle I took a piece of plus to the Oklahoma City is off a back-to-back heading into San Antonio Do like the spurs six and four over their last 10 still one of the top net ratings in the league every single week That you go to look at that type of stuff. So I'm gonna take the spurs. I thought this would be closer to a pick them Spurs trying to beat the thunder for the fourth time this year. Yeah, I'm mistaken Did lose the last time they played though to the thunder after beating them three times in a row You made the best point there though, which is on a night before the trade deadline Shred lightly got by when the teams involved have Designs on moving players acquiring players that kind of thing and this is really when you learn with NBA handicappers

22:39If you follow any NBA handicappers. This is when you really learn who's actually following the league versus who's just so immersed in their numbers That the blinders are on and they have no Consideration of these kinds of things, right? I mean you can't tell me like you can't tell me of any idea who's playing for the timbrels or raptors Like it's a bunch of guys could be pulled down a line up So if someone releases a play on that game just know they're they're the ones who have the blinders on it or just like Just look at my numbers. This line makes no sense kind of thing. Mm-hmm. Uh, we will come back with Nick Whalen talking Super Bowl 60 with us He from Roto wire that's next numbers game. Vason these sports betting network Oh A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network back on a numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas We get tweets David shallow for yo Looking for an offensive player try Marcus Jones pick six and a putt return touchdown 60 to one. It's called long shots. He says

23:43Yeah, we've got a couple markets Jones this year this week got a bunch of markets Jones this week Yeah, mr. Masterline there are six collides left used to be like ten of them best in the 90s in the uh the odds Yeah, that's my recollection as well Collides were more abundant now. I just go to the Wisconsin Avenue one one. I'm in town Jason Stark talking about the game last night between UNLV and Fresno State Said the most dreaded words in college basketball. They're going to go to the monitor to look at this Usually no reason for destroys the rhythm of the game and makes the games and runs 20 minutes extra Don't miss this in February and March Yeah, so what he's referring to again when uh when UNLV was up five They it was a they oh somebody whacked somebody across the face why at Tom check was telling me And there was no initial call on the court, but they're like wow you got to go to the monitor check this out So they got the flagrant that cut it to to to three I believe it was if I'm not mistaken um Maybe I have the timeline on that wrong or or that or the okay, that is correct

24:44So that went to three and then the subsequent three to tie it The baseball pass over everybody gave them gave Fresno State the ball back they win it uh Jason Stark said I lost UNLV money line on that crap. Thank God. I was asleep Just woke up to a loss being on the east coast. I wouldn't have slept all night. Oh the old Schrodinger's cat wake up, huh It's like three o'clock in the morning. I think I heard that when that ended Richard Burkhard. Yo, where all the MLB futures at asking for a friend Mike Alvarez Now oh now we want the MLB futures do it. Oh Mike. Nick Whalen joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line He of course senior writer over at roto wire. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen Just substitute the letter L for the number one Nick how you doing man Doing great guys. I mean super bowl week. It's trade deadline week We already have plenty of action in the MBAs So uh a lot to look forward to I think as we get closer and closer to the deadline tomorrow And the Jeff Erickson Nick Whalen or Nick Whalen Jeff Erickson uh Prop points begin six days from now correct February 10th

25:46That's right. That's right. Uh Hansen gets the the day after the Super Bowl to to officially you know great all of his props and In react and then we take it over on the 10 then look if people are looking for MLB futures there will be plenty of that on the Whalen Erickson edition of prop points. Okay, um Let's get the NBA out of the way you have a play tonight Yeah, I think it's an interesting slate. I think there are some spots You know as we get closer to the trade deadline where you could take advantage You know, especially with some of these teams that have either made trades or might make trades You'll have you know players surprisingly ruled out or mysteriously Out of the lineup due to personal absences So the game that jumped out to me right away Uh as far as you know already having some of those situations Is grizzlies kings in the western conference two very bad teams Memphis has been in a free fall Obviously they traded chair and jackson junior yesterday Which is the official announcement that this team will be thanking the rest of the season and essentially Entering a rebuild. Uh, they now have 13 first round picks by the way in the next seven draft

26:47So this is one where I don't love a side. You know, it's basically a toss up You know kings are one and a half point home favorites But you have two bottom five defenses. You have a grizzlies team that really will only have like nine or ten guys available They'll be dipping into some of their two-way contracts. They'll be shorthanded after that trade yesterday Demandis the bonus is questionable for Sacramento So I look at tomorrow Rosen as somebody who's actually you know been consistent at least for the Sacramento kings I think over 27 and a half points rebound to cis for him is a good spot Tied to Rome is back in action for the grizzlies He's played in their last two games after missing the first half plus of the season and has played really well for Memphis You know, obviously jama rant will not be out there tonight So I like the over 23 and a half points rebounds assists for tied to Rome And it's somebody has to play in the front court for the Memphis Grizzlies We don't know if Santiago Dama is going to be out there. Jared Jackson is no longer on this team All the players they brought in from Utah including Taylor Hendrix So I think we'll get some run for them down the stretch. They won't be available tonight

27:48So our old friend Kelly GG Jackson Who's had some moments for this team? I specifically two years ago had a really nice run as a rookie But it's been playing a little bit more of late. I think by default. He's going to have to play big minutes tonight So I'm looking at the over 14 and a half points for GG Jackson. It is crazy. Love all the bets Nick It is why every season bonus get moved before this game like this is going to be a bunch of guards and like forwards playing in this game tonight It's crazy. You mentioned the pelicans in there. Did you mention the pelicans play in there as well? I did not mention it yet, but I am I'm looking to fade the Milwaukee bucks You know they they came off a huge win Last night to get Chicago again Take an advantage of a team that was shorthanded after making a trade I guess that goes down as a nice win for the bucks I don't think they're overly interested in winning too many games the rest of the way Meanwhile the New Orleans pelicans you know there's a story that came out this morning like they they view themselves as having a playoff roster There is no realistic View of what this team actually is and to be fair to them I mean, I like a lot of the pieces on the pelicans

28:50Yeah, they don't feel like they should be as bad as the team like the Brooklyn that so the Washington wizards But they are you know, they they they just have trouble stringing together wins They've been a little bit better lately They are nine points better in terms of net rating than the Milwaukee bucks over the last 10 games So this is a spot where I would grab points with New Orleans bucks are one in five ATS when they have a rest disadvantage this season they're failing to cover those games by almost eight points per game Pels are five and two when they have a rest advantage So this is a pelican spot for me at the risk of making people sick already of the honest talk I do feel compelled to ask Nick about it because he isn't a honest guy So it would be more awkward not to ask him what's your instinct at this point I you know everything coming out of Milwaukee. We've had a couple puff pieces You know in the last 24 hours where the honest is once again professing his loyalty to Milwaukee and you know almost kind of reminiscing It feels like about his time with the Milwaukee bucks. You know that that it kind of felt to me Like the the last ditch effort to to save a little bit of face

29:53But I want to be clear here. I live in Milwaukee. I'm more of a bucks fan. I would say than a honest fan specifically I think most of bucks nation is is ready to move on most of bucks nation would root for Yannis ontetacoopo Wherever he goes next. Yeah, I don't think this is going to be an acrimonious exit Whenever it happens whether it's before tomorrow's deadline or at sometime In the summer, you know, I know there's this pipe dream scenario where Milwaukee tanks the rest of the season and oh They jump up and they get the number one or the number two pick and all the sudden Yeah, you could sell Yannis on playing alongside Darren Peterson or AJ DeBanza We'll see we'll see the lottery is spending incredibly unpredictable Over these last few years and I think that's a ultimately a pretty difficult sell to Yannis who's gonna be 32 Next season even if you land that big-time prospect You know, you're probably at least two or three years away from that guy being enough of an impact player To really push you toward a title So I'm I have long been up the belief guys that the bucks should just bite the bullet if Yannis is not going to be the one To put his finger on the scale and say trade me or trade me to this specific team

30:53I think Milwaukee should be actively looking to shop him and I know they can get better deals on paper in the off season But I just I want the saga to end. It's been hanging over this team for two plus years This is such an insight into can you imagine how many Yannis's ex girlfriends are like this exactly what he did to me Just break up with me already So it's break up. Well, I love the I love we get James Harden move last night, right? It's like the the vast difference between a James Harden and Yannis And a couple where it's like Yannis was good. He wants to leave. Just can't piss off anybody Oh, I'm sorry. It's like you're gonna pay me get the hell get me the hell out of there. Here's how you do this How you do this? All right, I will have a couple minutes left. Let's talk Super Bowl 60 Remind us how you're betting this have you added any since the last time we spoke Yeah, I've added a couple of props to my card You know, we talked last week about the Drake May over 30 and a half past attempts I like that, you know, I'm with our guide Jeff Erickson on the over two and a half receptions for Remindary Stevenson as well. I think we see more of Travion Henderson

31:55I think you know that GameScript kind of dictated that they wanted to pound Stevenson a little bit more against Denver A couple of weeks ago, but I think they want to get the explosiveness of Henderson in there as well But I've been digging a little bit deeper guys because yeah as you guys know I mean, we have every possible market available For the Super Bowl So on the Seattle side of things I kind of like George Alani over 10 and a half receiving yards Don't mind the over one and a half receptions as well It quietly played 23 snaps in the NFC championship game was targeted four times caught three of those for 27 yards Ran 14 routes on those 23 snaps compared to 15 for Kenneth Walker who obviously had a much higher Snapshare in that game So when he was on the field He was basically being used as a passing back as a receiving back and was seeing similar volume to Kenneth Walker in those scenarios And like the Patriots Seattle does allow a decent amount of volume In terms of running backs operating his past sketchers did a good job of limiting big plays to running backs during the regular season But they rig 27 in the NFL in terms of total catches to the running back position. So that's one that I'm looking at

32:59You know when you start to get into Some of these like Super Bowl only type of markets. Look at that the under 10 and a half Jersey number for first touchdown On Sunday that's that plus 110 and that gets you Kenneth Walker They get to Cooper Cup Drake May as a Russia, of course Stefan Diggs and K. Sean Boote. So you don't get JSN. You don't get Ramon Dre You don't get the tight ends, but to me, that's a worthy tradeoff I like it the under the under 10 Jersey uniform bet. I haven't heard that word last week um Okay, and then just in general side and total again remind me you are on I'm gonna try to split the difference here guys. You know, I'm hoping I could get this up to to five It hasn't moved yet this week. I thought we might see a little bit more. Maybe that happens before Sunday But I think the Patriots keep this game close. I think it is more of a defensive game my official score prediction As of now on roto wire is Seattle 24 new England 20. There you go Yeah, got a new England pick I guess by here we go a little bit there. All right

34:00I a little bit by a little bit Nick appreciated as always man. Thank you so much Um, good luck with the NBA tonight and we'll see what happens with the honest time. We'll tell here 24 hours We'll find out guys. Appreciate you having me warred sharp Todd wish them and more coming up numbers game visa these sports betting nowhere I Numbers game on fee sent these sports betting network Super Bowl Sunday. We are here all day long at visa and big game coverage from warning on Beginning at 9 a.m. Eastern with Vs. Pro football tailgate show with Mitch Moss upon the Howard setting the board early Then it's us at noon on a numbers game Me and Kelly break it down the day to 2 p.m. Eastern prop points. John Hansen Tim Murray for player props last minute value Then at 4 p.m. Money moves with stormy bottom Tony and Jonathan Montelville tracking sharp action in real time six p.m. Eastern

35:01Big game betting live from Vegas with Matt Brown and Mike Sommage bringing you live odds best in game betting opportunities All the Somal bombs you want and after the final whistle 10 p.m. Eastern caching out big game addition with Dustin Sweetles and grading the bets and celebrating the winners Dustin a radio row as well make your bed Dustin. I got a tweet about that last night on the biggest betting day of the year It's all they coverage only on V sin what he doesn't make his bet He's doing the show from his hotel room right now out there. Oh, it doesn't make his bed Buddhist man made a let me know that uh Send me a screenshot and the old bed was uh unmade by him Did you make your bed in hotels smart man? No, no, no, are you kidding? My bed at home right now is not made But I'm not doing a show in front of it. That's that is a good point. You are not doing a show in front of it Um about those Scotty Sheffler odds that we had earlier right Scotty Sheffler around plus 220-ish To reminded me to win the uh waste management Shoffley next at 17-1. Oh, we even shoot. We even showed a bigger spread like Shoffley was 19-1. Yeah 19 Uh Joe Pida our buddy uh reminds those of us who have been betting for uh

36:03Most of our lives that in the early 2000s Uh the dual heyday of tiger woods and the world sports exchange for those of us of a certain age Uh who would bet off shore at WSEX world sports exchange Um whenever tiger played an event just to give you context Uh world sports exchange would open the live betting market on tiger At 30 to 33 so translating it to our actual odds essentially tiger would be minus 233 to win any tournament back then Just start with live betting minus minus 233 to win This is about it. This is not about. This is as close as we've ever gotten Joe even says never thought we'd even get this close. I was just gonna say the fact that you it's not comparing one to the other Even talking different eras the fact that we've had two guys impact the betting market like this. It's just wild It's incredible. I did just bet. I got my first helmet or bed and 10-1 Scotty Sheffler

37:04Jason McKinney. I can't believe the holiday hate from kill Says I can't believe the holiday hate from gilly valentines mothers and fathers days some of the most important in the US Full disclosure. I'm in the restaurant business. I've heard Todd wish that it was like a Todd wish never And will hill likes our rolls. Oh, you work there Wow, where's the Texas roadhouses? That would you tell me By the way, I have no hate for mothers or fathers dad love mothers and fathers day Um, those are far more significant to me the valentines day. Yeah, yeah I mean, I used to love them. I'm one of my mom and dad were around. I used to love those I love Christmas more than all these Gentiles love Christmas for God's sakes. That's true. He does Man, can't hate on Valentine's day Anyway, uh, oh Brad Magnus says how about instead of dealing Yannis they just fired Doc. Yeah, that's one way to do it That doesn't solve the Yannis problem though It's an episode. It's so tired, man. GV New Jersey, New York says oh the Doug Gottlieb thing we were talking about earlier He's calling your four-wheel-of-be-ass kill. It's only two of my criteria is Kim Paul

38:04Yeah, Gottlieb was not happy. We talked about it with Greg earlier. I just can't kill I was ready to throw my hands up in the middle of Nick's segment It's just the the honest thing like you got stop it just stop being nice rip the band-aid demand you need to be out of there So tired of this like I did see more Yannis garbage Out there this morning him talking about how much the community means to him and his daughter is his kids will always be born There's fathers buried there like I get it man. The city can mean a lot to you your professional basketball player You know how to play elsewhere and then Nick brought up the pelicans think I went on a ran-on like a month ago You were witness to it. There was nobody more higher on this core of a player It's like three years ago. I was like just give him time guilt. It's just given their full Justin Herbert at this point Don't nobody sell me on herb Jones or trade Murphy until they win anything So done with it. It is not you. It's is me then break are you breaking up with me? Not and not exactly I want to be here. I've been goaded into redoing my my baseball season when not redoing but reviewing them

39:06Well, it's Wednesday. Well, it's because our two of our show didn't get on Social yesterday correct. They didn't get on the website. We had some tech air Sorry for people that were watching at home. Okay, so I've given out two season win tonals Of the last two days first one was the guardians under 80 and a half and again the reasoning for this is Threefold one the Fagorean theorem Bill James tried and true runs produced runs allowed Guardians with the biggest overachievers in all baseball last year plus eight on the Pythas And then in terms of sequencing They were plus 11 wins 11 games better than they ought to have been but eight games if you just want to go with Pythagorean theorem eight games better than they ought to have been That's right the 14 games above 500 guardians of a negative run differential should have been like 80 and 82 Oh God, maybe even worse with sequencing anyway, and then I just went into the whole thing that I'm not really high on their pictures at all the starting rotation I think Gavin Williams with his 11.8% walk rate is

40:08She up no idea what you're gonna get from him a year to year Tanner bibi who they had really strong hopes for um His cutter is no good as slider looks like a sweeper against he can't get the feel of it against right-handed hitters uh slayed kichoni Again also just awful. There's ideal contact rate 50% of both left-handed batters and right-handed batters last season 85% walk uh strand rate pardon me even when he was good, which is unsustainable Logan Allen never panned out 9.2% walk rate his fastballs at 90-91 like the margin of error is so slim Anyway, and then their lineup is yeah Ramirez is fantastic. Jose Ramirez is incredible Stephen Kwan maybe have a has a bounce back. I'll even allow for that in common. Zardo is good But there's no there's no depth to that lineup. It's an under once again on the guardians 80 and a half Though I do think Parker Messick by the way has a potential in that rotation It was Burke's comments. He agrees with your play. He can he cannot disagree with it. Yeah, was I believe the way he put it

41:10Yeah, he wasn't gonna bet it till either right? No The one that you might have missed yesterday because we couldn't get it up Was the uh the up on social was Texas Rangers over 83 and a half so back to Pythag and sequencing The biggest underachievers in terms of Pythagorean theorem runs produced runs allowed The Rangers finished 10 games worse than they should have been last year So you're at you're a team disguised right you're you're you're a much better team disguised as a much worse team Only the white socks whereas big of an underachiever according to Pythagorean theorem last year runs produced runs allowed but also in sequencing they were among the Most unfortunate I think five wins Worse Inactual standings versus what they ought to have been in sequencing and the Rangers to me are the polar opposite of the guardians While I'm going under on the guardians 80 and a half I'm going over Rangers 83 and a half because the ranger starting rotation I'm old school when it comes to starting rotations man. I love a great starting rotation and Eavaldi de Grom

42:11McKenzie Gore and Jack lighter come on Eavaldi with his 1.73 ERA last year 26% K rate 4.2% walk rate even if he shouldn't have been the 1.73 ERA his advanced stats still very good at 2.80 Fielding independent to Grom certainly not the best part of his career, but a 27.7% K rate last year against the 5.5% walk rate a 2.97 ERA a little worse on an advanced stats But you get the idea still a great top line pitcher And then McKenzie Gore who I also bet 40 40 to 1 to win the ALSI young Shout out to the aforementioned Joe PETA because I love all of McKenzie Gore's underlying stats, but um Joe adds that the framing From going away from Washington is such a huge deal. You're always wondering. Why can't McKenzie Gore make that final leap to the elite A lot of it might have to do with framing like that's a big reason for it even though again, you know 27.2% K rate. You love seeing that kind of thing. The Babib has always been unfortunate

43:15325 last year 340 the year before so that's your number three starter And then there's lighter jack lighter who everybody thinks after a great second half of the season last year is gonna break out And I like their lineup with Nemo and excuse me Nemo Langford seeker Jock needs to bounce back for sure jake burger. I like that one through five So over on the Rangers case you missed it yesterday Under on the Guardians case you missed it the day before you can also bet Best record worst record. Yeah pulled those as well. Just to throw those up here for a second. How alive Rangers Like how far you think they can make in the pool. Oh, I think they can go really okay. Oh, yeah Like you got they got to figure out the bullpen for sure But I have every faith of the they can do that as the course of the season goes on MLB best record look look at that Dodgers minus 165 Yankees next at 12 the one. Can I give you my reactions while I was typing these up yesterday Best record went first will wow Dodgers man just shake my head Now have you still it looked at worst record? Oh, it's gotta be the Rockies by far right Rockies might as four hundred. Yeah, that rock because I don't think the white socks are that are gonna be bad this year

44:20Maybe you could talk me into the gnats if they just started selling off right yeah, but no the Rockies are absolutely Let's put it this way. This is correct that the Rockies are four dollar favorites to win worst And the Dodgers aren't quite that big of a favorite to win to tap best because the Dodgers can decide at some point, right? Yes, it's easier to be a bad team Well, it's it's also the Dodgers can make a decision to just sort of load manage if they get injuries and that kind of things Whereas the Rockies you just kind of stink There's no way I mean nothing not that there's rest days and stuff like that But if anybody they want to take time to get ready for my injuries or back from injuries you take your time I could do the whole Rockies ran again, but I've said it many years they have to basically Have roster construction for two different environments home and whatever they're doing on the road And it's just I don't know that they can ever sustain success without franchise Coming back with war and sharp next on a numbers game