A Numbers Game | February 3, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00This is Vincent, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story to always do. Swindle's idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game. With Kill Out of Exander gone, Vincent. Our number two of a numbers game, it's Vincent, the sports betting network, Vincent dot com game. Plus, I hard radio, YouTube TV. And of course, Series X of Channel 158. Kill Out of Exander. Kelly Billin, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Still to come this hour. Jeff Erickson can talk Super Bowl 60 with us. Looks like some NBA awards. Do a heat check on NBA awards. We haven't done that a long time. And I'll get into another after yesterday. I had the Cleveland Guardians under as my single favorite MLBCs and win total of the air. I will have another one here momentarily. First your tweets at being the book Chris Hartman. You will you and see will not be receiving a gift basket for me. The inability to cover 11 and a half went up 31 was seven minutes. Left is off putting. Oh, man.

1:00We were watching this yesterday. We were sending tweets back and forth. They're texts. I should say back and forth. It's like if you had UNC minus the points last night. The keysterization was coming was our word for it. And sure enough, it came and Chris Hartman was on the wrong end of that. That's brutal. Yeah. Up 31 with seven minutes left. Nemesis enforcer. Co signing for Gil Renee Pusant was definitely her name. Channel seven going way back. Been in national 20 years and local TV networks been been the biggest change. Channel nine was CBS four was NBC seven was ABC five was Fox. But can't recall what I did yesterday. Nemesis that's exactly me. What did I have for lunch yesterday? But I could tell you all that's the. And James Juliano hope I say that right James. Maybe it's Juliano always in action says caught some sixers highlights this morning on the NBA app. And I'm 99% sure Ben Wilson was the narrator. Can you verify this? Is he doing NBA app stuff? I just tagged Benny. Well, I told you I was I walked into my place like two weeks ago. Yeah. Like two or three weeks gone. I don't know. I told this on air.

2:00But I walked in. I fired up my TV is open up my laptops right. And I'm sitting down at work. You know, my desk and I'm like. Where am I hearing Ben Wilson's voice from? And like I got a TV on visa. And I'm like, no, he's not on a reason right now. Like where am I hearing this voice from? There's a NBA NBA TV who's doing highlights. Oh, okay. So maybe it is. Yeah. So yeah, probably a good chance. Yeah. I had that same experience on a Sunday afternoon. And there was a arena football league game there or recorded arena football league game. That came out. It was Ben doing it. Then Wilson. Yep. Doing it all. Doing it all. All right. Let's talk some major league baseball season win totals. Once again, for those who missed it yesterday. The way that I do them is kind of a systematic thing that starts before I even get into personnel. Of teams. I go through a couple layers. And I explained it yesterday. I don't have to go that deep into it today. So the first is Bill James with Ag Grant theorem, which is the simple tried and true formula of runs produced runs allowed. And how did teams do last year based on overperformance or underperformance? And we showed these this graphic yesterday.

3:00We'll show it again. The biggest overachievers based on runs produced runs allowed. Which should correspond then to a win percentage, which should give you a record. The guardians and the angels and the marlins. Those three teams were the biggest overachievers. They both finished eight games better than they should have. Based on Bill James with Ag Grant theorem runs produced runs allowed. The biggest underachievers, the Rangers and the White Talks. Both 10 games worse than they should have been. Last year based on runs produced runs allowed. Okay, but the Pythagorean theorem, not your geometry class Pythagorean theorem, but Bill James with Pythagorean theorem. That does not explain how those runs were produced or allowed. Sequencing has a lot to do with that. And then based on sequencing again, the order of events in any given half inning, both offensively and defensively. Again, the example I gave seven events in an inning. One home run, three walks, three strikeouts, right? You hit a home run, you get three walks and then you have three strikeouts in that order.

4:02You get one run. But if it's reversed, you get three walks of home run and then three strikeouts, same seven events. But you get four runs that way, right? So with every half inning, both offensively and defensively, there's an expected run production. And sometimes you go a season where you're getting the best of that, right? You're getting the best of that sequencing, both offensively and defensively. Sometimes you're getting the worst of it. The biggest overachievers based on sequencing and the biggest underachievers based on sequencing. If we can call up that graphic as well, maybe we don't have that at our, our disposal. I will tell you here based on the graphics we gave out yesterday. Cleveland plus 11 biggest overachievers, right? Again, and a lot of that lends to even before I got into the Guardians personnel, which I think they're starting pitching rotation is awful. They don't have class A at the back end. I don't think their lineup is very good, right? Beyond three players, Ramirez, Kwan and Monsardo.

5:02So I, I'm way under on the Guardians. Again, this year, their total was set at 80 and a half. The biggest underachievers based on sequencing, right? You see this on the list. The Metz got the worst of that. They were nine under what they should have been. You see the white socks that raised the Aggies Rangers twins rounding out that list as well. So that's the first two levels. The Guardians were a clear under. That's my favorite. My favorite over of the year. My second favorite of all season went total. What you got? It does begin with T and end with exes Rangers, just like the tweets said earlier. He's on to me. Real this last year. No. You're before year before. Okay. Yeah. The year they won the World Series, I had them season win total over. Ailed it. So I hated myself. Because that's all I bet. Yeah. That's all I bet on them. So it's the Texas Rangers over. Again, they appear on both of the list. I just mentioned. Again, the biggest single underachiever based on Pythagorean theorem. And on the top five lists of biggest underachievers when it came to sequencing, the Rangers

6:04last year, in essence, were a 81 and 81 500 team that ought to have been closer to a 90 win team. Not quite, but closer to that like 80 89 wins based on all that. If you do it by Pythag, you can be more than that, right? But that's the story with the Texas Rangers from from last year. And the over then in addition to that comes down to several factors, one of which is we started with how I don't like the Cleveland Guardian starting rotation going through that yesterday, specifically talking about Logan Allen and Tanner Bobby and Gavin Williams and Chaconi or the Cachoni pardon me and on down the list with the Texas Rangers. I would argue it's the best group maybe in the major league. That's four of your starting rotation, Jacob DeGrom. Not at his Metz prime, certainly, but last year a 2.97 ERA, the advanced stats aren't

7:05much worse than that 27.7% K rate, 5.5% walk rate. He's still bringing it. Nathan Evaldi, their number one, a 1.73 ERA last year, advanced, that's not quite that good, but still low threes high twos when it comes to expected ERA, fielding independent, 5.5 last year, 26% K rate, 4.2% walk rate. So Evaldi DeGrom, one, two in that Rangers rotation. And then the Rangers acquired McKenzie Gore from the Washington Nationals for five prospect, five prospects. McKenzie Gore is a sneaky, sneaky sort of player whose stats are very sort of middling, 3.74, fielding independent, 3.78 ex-fip last year, again, try to reflect his true skill set, not terrible, not bad at all, not elite though, right? On those numbers, but a 325 Babip, he had a 340 Babip the year before just really unlucky

8:06when it comes to batting average on balls and play, but still a 27.2% K rate. I shouted out Joe Pied at the end of my Guardians talk yesterday about how the Guardians also not only lucky on offense, lucky on defense, lucky on in pitching, but also like super lucky in terms of turning double plays last year. Well, let me shout out Joe Pied when it comes to a McKenzie Gore bit. And this is kind of again, the details within the details. McKenzie Gore goes from a really poor framing catching team in the Washington Nationals to a much better one in the Rangers. So much so that it caused me to also bet McKenzie Gore at 40 to one to win the American League SIO. That's how high I am on McKenzie Gore as the Rangers number three starter. I think he gets a massive bump in ways that when you watch baseball on day to day level, your eyes don't necessarily process because it's nuanced baseball stuff like framing. So shout out to Joe on that as well. But it's also Jack Lighter's year supposed to be the Jack Lighter breakout year as the

9:09number four in that rotation. I lighter didn't have great stats as a full year last year, but he was really good down the stretch. And this is supposed to be the breakout year. So if you talk about Evolody to Grum Gore, who I think is a say young candidate, we shall see, right? And Jack Lighter, you got one, two, three, four, that is just, does the bullpen have question marks? Absolutely does. But even when the Rangers won the World Series, they had bullpen questions that you can figure out at some point, if you know, in the season, they're lined up though, I love it. And Nimo in the trade with Marcus Semyon to me is a great offensive trade. Semyon had had his best days behind him offensively. Wyatt Langford slotted in the number two spot. I mean, these are guys who are protected in Nimo at the top. Wyatt Langford at two, Corey Seeger, obviously, the mainstay at three, they're best bad. Jock Peterson does have to have a bounce back season here. He was terrible last year, but I think Jock has done this in his career before.

10:11He's had a bad thing and then he's bounced back. And then Jake Berger at five. You got five guys who are rejected to hit between 20 to 27 homers, get about up to 80 RBI in some of those cases. That's a good top five. Then you have a guy like Josh Smith later, some people think he can hit 300. I just think this is a really solid baseball team in addition to the fact that where they start as a baseline, as we just prove with the Thagrin theorem and sequencing, they're a way better team than they should have been last year. There's, there's season wind total is set at 83 and a half. They're not asking them to do much. In terms of, you know, they don't have to soar over over 500. They don't have to be a 90 win team. I think they will be, by the way, I think they're actually a good choice for some futures, whether it's division, whether it's pen and or world series, but all I'm doing here is going over 83 and a half and the flyer on McKenzie Gore 40 to one for American league Saiyung shout out to Joe Pita again for the assist on the framing stuff. There you go. There's season wind total number two on this Super Bowl 60 week.

11:12My God. I like it. The, uh, yes, the AOS Mariners plus 110 Astros two to one Rangers plus 360. Yeah. Man. The Rangers were plus 79 and run differential last year and finished 500. How do you view all three of those, like are all three of those teams as good if not a little bit better? Mariners Astros. I don't think the, I don't think the Astros are good. Okay. And the Mariners, I mean, the Mariners had a great year. It's tough to, it's tough to duplicate the athletics or the other sort of sneaky team. I think in that division. But the Rangers over 83 and a half season wind total number two, uh, Jeff Erickson is going to join us. We'll talk Super Bowl 60 on the other side, JVT from radio row all that and more numbers game. Visa, these sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use,

12:14no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with visa in pro numbers game on visa. These sports betting network numbers game as always giving you great looking chicken wings on a daily basis. Look at those things. Even if the chicken wingscaler you're more mistaken. What are you doing? Uh, I have not had the Omaha chicken wings. Well, the Omaha steaks, the official sponsor of tailgating, you could spend $129. That's $129. You could score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings, plus 50% off site white at Omaha steaks.com slash VSIN, spend $129, get two pounds of wings, say 50% site white on steaks and more at Omaha steaks.com slash VSIN, that's Omaha steaks dot com slash visa. Minimum purchase required seaside for details. You got one of those boxes with all the Omaha steaks stuff, didn't you?

13:14I did a while back. Yeah, a while back. I mean, there wasn't chicken wings in a month. No, I had no chicken wings in there. What do you think was the best part of that box? So me was the, the dessert was unbelievable. Oh, man, I don't know if I got a dessert. I got a bunch of wood. I got a bunch of burgers, steaks, chicken breasts and sausages, I think, oh, I didn't get chicken. I think the, the one I always, the one I always bring up in it, uh, positively is the chicken breasts. Like, I don't really know that I thought that going to get like chicken out of the air frozen chilled, uh, box would be all that great, man, it delicious, absolutely delicious. Yeah. Tweet stuff. Beat in the book. Brian Morianne. Since we're going into the future, maybe we can get some insight into the Ryder Cup or get Drew on for some early summer Olympics. Drew is, uh, we still haven't had the, uh, the, the winter Olympics shabang. I think that's coming Thursday. With Drew. Let's come in third way. What do you mean, Thursday? Yeah, breaking news drew not on today. Uh, he will be on Thursday with bang. There it is. Winter Olympics shabang on Thursday. Yeah. I don't know. He's, and don't ask me about his travels. Okay. I know we brought it up on the show. I thought I was checking in with him yesterday and he was going to be like, oh, yeah, really?

14:14And it's like, no, I'm going to go up to San Francisco that he's going back home. I don't know when he goes to. So Thursday, he'll be in his normal spot. That kid's got a great life. Yeah, he does. Mike Montessano backing me up on the, as Jim Root did on the whole college basketball theory that is this year, uh, and that there's many more really good teams than, than we remember. In other words, as Jim put it, they only lose to each other generally. Michael Montessano, uh, to Gil's point about so many teams being exceptional this year in college hoops, the numbers verify that currently. There are 10 teams with a net rating of 30 plus at Kenpom, 30.0 plus net rating. Holy hell. Uh, that's 10 this year currently. Last year, six teams finished with a 30.0 plus net rating. The year before that, it was three teams, 2023, no teams, 2022, one team, 2021, two teams. I was going to say, I feel like we end the season and there's usually like one to three in that range. Yeah. So last year was actually a bump to six this year.

15:14It's insane. And those Vegas five one four, uh, yo, did I hear the name or a nape who sunk? I don't know why, but all I know DMV news royalty was Jim Vance and George Michael, especially the George Michael sports machine. Hello, everybody. So you should start that one out. Back me up here, Gil. Yeah. George Michael with the George Michael sports machine, of course, was, you know, pre ESPN, like for those of us who didn't have a table, that was like the big deal where he would just press that big old button, which by the way, it was just a prop didn't start anything, but he would press that big button. He would show NASCAR before anybody else used to show NASCAR. Mm hmm. And then Jim Vance was a DC treasure. Uh, you want to, uh, what, can we run through these college basketball teams in, in Maryland tonight? That's what it was started stories. Leave it. Well, sorry. Go ahead. Of teams, you think are really good. Like who is of the team? The teams that you're talking about. Yes. And I guess that 10 palm 10. We could just go. Well, I listed like 16 teams, right? Which Jim? Yeah. I'm going to go through them one by one, Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Houston. Let me know when there's a team that I, that doesn't apply. Okay.

16:14You con Iowa state is you, is you con up there? So you, so so far that when we did the formula, I haven't looked in that sense, but you con and Iowa state so far, the teams you named did not all the others. Okay. Illinois. Illinois just on the outside looking at Florida. Florida was in Kansas, Kansas outside or do Purdue outside in Zaga. You got to be at that inside, right inside. Zaga's in Nebraska out. Correct. Okay. Anybody else in Michigan, Michigan state Vanderbilt, BYU, Texas tech. Wait. Did I say Iowa, do you say Iowa state in there? I did. Yeah. There it is. Arizona, the teams that were in were Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa state, Houston, Gonzaga, and Florida. Okay. But like again, Vandy, Virginia, Nebraska, BYU, Michigan, state, Illinois, Purdue, Yukon, Kansas, Texas, tech. I mean, there's so many other good teams. Yeah. There's not even including, right, like the Alabama's of the world, which I don't think are really that good. That's some people do. And I'm just like, uh, four seed, five seed, you know, but I don't, I don't think they're

17:15a national championship contender, but there's just tons of great teams this year in a way that you don't really think of college basketball having that many this time of year. So we'll see how it shakes out here. Obviously some time between now and conference tournaments and the big dance can't wait for those. I don't wish to have in here heckling some of the small conference terms. Yeah, man, for sure. NBA tonight. Yeah. You have some plays. I got a car. Nothing, nothing bet yet, but a few games I do have my eye on one of the bigger ones going on tonight. We've got the nuggets at the pistons. This would be at seven, 10 Eastern. Do you have this one circled waiting to see it? There's a lot of games today, Gil. We've got a lot of injury who knows right now, and this is kind of the situation with nuggets, pistons. Really interested to see how Yokeh plays these first, you know, three, four, five games. Just to, you know, go back when we were talking about yesterday, is he really going to push to try to get, you know, you play all these games and actually be in the MVP conversation. It's going to be interesting to monitor. Christian Brown questionable right now for Denver and carousel. Vert questionable for Detroit. This, if this keeps coming down and open to like five, it's like three and a half four.

18:20I'll probably be in on Detroit. I want to see though what the injury report looks like the rest of the day. Hawks, he, this is one I had Atlanta circled overnight. They were like five, five and a half on the opener. It's down to three, three and a half. I agree with that line move. The problem is this one is chock full of injury question marks as well. You've got Tyler hero and Norman Powell, both currently questionable. Actually, Tyler here, I just got ruled out for this game today against Atlanta. Porzingh has been upgraded to questionable and yet on Konghu out for the Atlanta Hawks. So this is what I'll be looking at this Atlanta side. I want to see what Norm Powell does and let this get a little bit closer to the game. Now it's a little bit more injury information as the Atlanta team has not been playing all that great recently. But Miami, Miami, I've got my question marks about and are they doing, you know, doing what some of these teams might do it over the next couple, a couple days of benching these guys are sitting these guys that might be traded out. I don't know. I mean, we saw it with James Harden the past couple days. So worth asking at least, let's see.

19:20What else did I write down here? The other games, I think Lakers are probably a good money line, Parley Leg tonight. They're playing the net skill. Like some of these teams, we could start picking on at the bottom, the nets, the nets, the wizards, the jazz, they telegraphed the past before the season of what they were going to be doing. And it is, it is some brutal basketball right now for all three of them. So Lakers, I'm not the highest guy on the LA Lakers out there. I think they roll over the nets though. How about your hornets? You drive to 30 with your adjusted season seven in a row, bro. Seven in a row. Do you see ESPN put up a graphic yesterday that since the year 2000 and they put up all these North American sports teams and multiple sports football, basketball, baseball, hockey, almost everybody's had an eight game winning streak at some point. Not the hornets. They're the only team in Northern American sports that have never had an eight game winning streak. So this is like it is. So their next game is kind of massive in that regard. You know, we argue about like cherry picking stats to make them sound like that's a very cherry.

20:20I love that I read what I read last night was their first seven game winning streak since 2016. And you're like, well, why would you include that one when you could include it much juicier one of that because I think you have to sort of search for that one. You know, yeah, that's wild. It is. So since the year 2000, if I understood it correctly, since the year 2000, every team in Northern American sports, I think that's correct. So I'm talking about football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, okay. I believe I saw this correct has had an eight game winning streak at some point. Since the year 2000, the hornets have never. They're the only franchise. I mean, what would be I guess football would be the toughest one? Yeah, sports or maybe it was without maybe it was without football. I don't know, but it's an amazing thing since 2000. It could include football for all. Yeah. That's why it's incredible. By the way, so the honest thing just let's just take a look at this for 90 seconds. Again, we don't know where he honest is going. If he's going, is there can you get ahead of a bet in the Eastern or Western conference based on possible destination?

21:21I don't really think you can. Like that's I think it's tough. I think you got to wait and see. I think there's a lot of these teams that are going to be waiting and seeing if you knew. Okay, so again, here are the honest next team odds pretty much the same. Since yesterday or at Calci stays with Milwaukee. Still a favorite minus 123 warriors of the second shot. Everybody else drifting back to double digit. Kelly checking to see if this is of the moment because we don't again. These things move while we're talking right from one sense to the other. All right, stays with Milwaukee minus 118 Miami plus 525. Golden state plus 669. Nicks and bulls 19 to one. So the bulls drifted again. The bulls are not a thing after that report from Sean's yesterday. Apparently, where Janus reported dog. Excuse me, the bucks reported to be giving counteroffers to four teams. The dubs, the heat, the nicks, the T wolves being the fourth of those teams. If you knew if you if you thought that the T wolves were getting him, would you get ahead of a T wolves bet?

22:22That's a great question. Because this is a team that I think for two years now, my numbers say I should be higher on it. God, I don't trust them at all. I don't know if I trust Anthony Edwards, Rudy, go bear that chord. I don't know. You know, they'd have to flip some pieces. Who knows who they trade to get the honest. Who knows who's even left? It's probably Anton. I don't know that you can count on much more than that. Look, an aunt, Janus grouping would be cool to watch. Janus and a couple also be like the first person in the history of the NBA to want to go to Minnesota. So that's interesting. What do you do the first? It's not really a part of anybody else wants to go to, but that'd be an interesting one. I think so. Sam Amick. I know I saw this from and I think I saw Bond temps tweeted earlier to Sam Amick. Quote. Saga looks like it's likely to extend into the summertime. Okay. With the honest, which I think makes sense, man. We said it for two weeks now, right? Warriors are these other teams. It's going to be tough for. Jeff Erickson going to come talk Super Bowl 60 with us, but he's also got a bunch of season longs and baseball. Let's do that.

23:22Jeff Erickson next on a numbers game right here at Visa. Numbers game on Visa. These sports vetting network don't forget Sunday, our big game coverage all day long. The coverage starts 9 a.m. Eastern with Visa's pro football tailgate show with Mitch Moss, Paulie Howard, setting the board early. So Mitch Paul could be here at six in the morning, doing their thing. Then at noon, Eastern numbers game with me and you Kelly. We break down the data. 2 p.m. Eastern prop points with John Hansen and Tim Murray for player props last minute value. 4 p.m. Eastern money moves with storming and JVT tracking sharp action in real time. And 6 p.m. Eastern big game betting live from Vegas with Matt Brown and Mike Sommage bringing the live odds, the best in game, betting opportunities. And after the final whistle, 10 p.m. Eastern cashing out big game edition with Dustin Sweetlesen raiding the bet, celebrating the winners on the biggest betting day of the year. It's all day coverage only on V-Syn.

24:23So I mentioned that Charlotte Hornet stand and I just wanted to get to the bottom of this. So I was correct in what I said. What's reported is Charlotte Hornets, the only team since 2000 and the stat is specifically since March 2000 of Northern American sports. But ball basketball hockey baseball that have never had an eight game winning streak. They are currently sitting on seven. By the way, they're their next game is at the rockets. Good luck. Good luck, Charlotte. But Matt warrior zero on three on Twitter says, Oh, you are correct, sir. I'm in Charlotte in the local radio station as a wind tracker so we can celebrate breaking the lack of past non winning streets and the future with the honest he adds as well. Okay. So he says, but so that so we just had Jeff Ericson on phone. We'll bring in Jeff Ericson for this Jeff joins us courtesy progressive guest line co-founder of Roto wire to talk Super Bowl 60 with us, but also baseball. And so I immediately said because because we're like, wow, football is every football team since 2000 and the NFL have they had an eight game winning streak and my Washington football team. I'm like, I don't know, I'm having an eight game winning streak.

25:23And sure enough, we can't find one. We can only find a seven game winning streak. So I don't know Jeff. I don't know if that stat is correct. What do you think? We gotta get a crack staff on this, huh? Been digging on this one here. My wife likes to say her smartest new friend, chat GPT is trying to find that as well, not coming up with anything here. That's right. I can get a seven in 2012. So we'll have to get there. There's go out and maybe get our asterisk out there somewhere, but yeah, unless maybe what they're doing is saying that they made, did they win a playoff? I don't think they want to play off game in 2012. Did they? Oh, maybe that's what it is. No, they lost the wildcard. But can't be that either. Yep. Nope. Can't be. I'm poking holes in this thing. But anyway, Charlotte looks for some kind of I just think I just poked hole in the SBN research. Okay. So let's real quick before we get into your baseball, refresh everybody's memory, Super Bowl 60. What are you betting on this? So I have a couple of things that are on the under and a couple of things based on Seattle

26:29based as well. I like the under total. And even though it's gone, you know, it's written a rollercoaster went up to 46 and a half now down to 45 and a half in a lot of places, I personally set mine at 44 and I would dabble with some like alt lines to see if I could get some good value on below that even. I think this is going to be one where the defenses rule the day. And I understand that, hey, New England's face three really good defenses in the playoffs. Well, guess what? They've averaged 18 points a game in those games. They've been sacked five times a piece in each of those games. I like the total sacks in this game and I think last week when I was on money, moves, I gave out the total sacks at over four and a half between both teams. I didn't see how I might get there themselves. Seattle might get there themselves and the props you bet, Jeff were. Um, I'm trying to recall everything that I had, but I have a couple that are fading Ramondra Stevenson. My favorite prop is probably the under 33 and a half longest completion for Drake May. Right. Because Seattle does not give up explosive plays.

27:31Unless you're the Rams, uh, if you go back and look at like game logs, uh, the last time someone other than a ram had a longer reception than 33 yards was a Mari D. Mercado. Uh, and that was in garbage time late against that game in Seattle. Um, it's, it's been a long time since they've given up those chunk plays to anybody that's not on the Rams. Okay. Do you remember what they were? We had four. We talked about them last week. We'll call them up and we'll repeat them later on the full slate or the full plate. I should say of, uh, of Jeff Super Bowl 60 props, which I think were four deep if I'm not mistaken. Okay. Two major league, two major league baseball, um, every year folks try to make the Padres a thing. Let's start here. You are not going to make them a thing this year. In fact, you are anti making them a thing. What are you doing with the Padres? I'm sad about this too, because I think baseball is better off when teams like the Padres try when they go all out and they try to win. I loved it when they did the one soda trade. They've been rewarded for sellouts. They've already, you know, they sold out their season ticket base this year or even.

28:35I think this is the year unfortunately, it's going to be pretty sad. Uh, I, I think there are too many losses, especially on the pitching side of things that I think it's going to retract this year and they're not going to make the playoffs. Uh, you can get them to, to not make the playoffs at plus 135 over at Caesars. Uh, I kind of like that sort of bet sometimes and I like sometimes the in season bets. Last year, one of my favorite ones was how, how long the braves were at plus money to not make the playoffs because everyone kind of held on to that belief. But I think I want to get ahead of it here with the Padres. It starts with the starting pitching. Uh, Nick Povetta was great last year, but is like, is, is field-independent, field-independent ERA was like a nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA suggests that he was pretty lucky at 235, Babib, for instance, is another good sign of that. I don't think the defense is going to be that great behind him, especially on the right side of the infield. I, I think it's going to be a tougher year for Povetta. You're counting on Joe Musgrove and his first year back from Tommy John Surgery to be back to being a high level starting pitcher.

29:35If not an ace, at least an SP two, you, Darvish is going to probably retire. He's definitely going to miss this full season. Michael King missed a lot of time due to a shoulder problem did sign that one year deal to return to the team. But the fourth and fifth rotation spots are still up for grabs. Their farm system is not that deep. In fact, if you look at RotoWire's prospect rankings, they don't have a single player in my colleague, James Anderson's top 100 prospects. They only have five in his top 400. Help is not coming from the farm. That's the takeaway from here. They've had some good contributions in the past guys like Jackson, Merrill. I don't think they're going to, there's not a whole lot of help along the way. So I think it's going to be a tough time. They're in a tough division. You know, the, the, the nationally has got a lot of teams that are trying. So I think they missed the playoffs this year. Oh, Henio Suarez was part of the trade deadline pickups for the Mariners last year, trying to get them to the World Series championship at fall. It felt short in the end. He is back with the Reds now on a one year deal and you are betting him in one category. What is it?

30:36Yeah. I took a look at some of the homerun leader props and I wanted to try to find something with some value. I didn't want to go with an immediate favorite here. Suarez had 49 homers last year. He had a year in Cincinnati where he had 49 homers. He landed in the absolute right spot. That out of Seattle where he hit 111 and 29 games in the regular season. This is a better spot for him. He is he going to strike out a lot? Sure. Is he the favorite? No, but it plus 500 plus 5000, excuse me. I really, really like the chances of him being in that key, in that race takes it, it's going to take a few things. It's going to take judge not going crazy, not being healthy. I'll see you as a long, but we know he's got that skill. And I think the price match is the good opportunity there. All right, saves leader. You have a play in that market. Yeah, similar philosophy. Try to find an elite pitcher that has better odds in some of the, the leaders there because saves are mercurial. Can you tell me who won the, who lets the majors in saves last year?

31:37I can. Carlos Astevis. Yeah. You know, it, it wasn't one of the elite closers that we were drafting in the first rounds. Kate Smith, on the other hand, for the Cleveland Guardians, is on average the national fantasy baseball championship, a top five closer. He's got a 20, he had a 28% strikeout rate last year. He, similar numbers the year before the Cleveland Guardians play a lot of close games. He's getting, he's like the 10th or 11th closer off the board in terms of the betting odds at 2200. I like that. I like those odds matched with the skill set. Okay. I am going to, I'm going to root for all of your other bets, but not that one because I have a season win total under on the Guardian. So I, I don't know, I don't know that we can both win those two things, but I think you can. Maybe. Yeah. Maybe it's not like they're blowing teams out. That's true. It's possible. I, I, they play, you know, did the royals have a great team last year? Did they have a great record? I know. They've still got the saves. It's a good point. All right. Maybe we thread the needle. Maybe we both win that. All right. And then let's go to a American league rookie of the year.

32:38You like this category of a couple plays here. Yeah. I was dabbling in this one as well. Uh, we'll stick, stay with the Guardians and go with another, uh, maybe not long shot, but a mid to your guy chased the water. We saw him in the playoffs and only the playoffs last year. Uh, it was interesting to see that they had two rookies playing in playoff games and significant spots. Chase the water and George Valera are both restarting in the out for, feel for them. I get where you're coming from in terms of fading the, the Guardians on their win bet. And especially if you like the royals, especially if you, you were trying to bump them up. It's got to come at the expense of probably one of the rivals. They signed J Ram to a contract, uh, contract extension of the soft season and said, hey, we're done here. Uh, but the water, one of the reasons why they were done is they wanted the water to have a spot to play. He's been hurt a ton in his minor league career, elite level prospect, uh, plus one, uh, one 31 WRC plus last year in triple A, can he stay on the field? His, his injuries last year were not of the chronic variety. They were a little fluke year. Um, I think this is a guy that's got a lot of skills and at plus, you know, 1500 over

33:41at DK. I like the price. Okay. And there was one other right in that category. Yeah. And this one's a little bit more of an obvious guy, Kevin McGonagall, James Anderson. Our prospect guy is the best in the business, I think he, he's McGonagall is James Anderson's number two prospect in RotoWare's prospect rankings. McGonagall could win his job out of spring training. If he does, those odds are going to get a lot shorter at plus 900 right now at bed MGM. I want to plug down something on that before it gets tighter. And we are a week away from the Jeff Erickson, Nick Whalen, the prop points be getting? Yes. Absolutely. We're going to be on from 10 to 11 best coast time. There it is. Best coast time. Wow. All right. Thank you, Jeff. Appreciate it. You bet. Take care, guys. Our NBA awards. He checked. Next. A numbers game on FISA, these sports betting network, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros.

34:42You can check out more if you scan that QR code. I'm talking about the sharp place at sharp plays dot to come. Check them out. So we've got to the bottom of this, uh, this Hornets thing courtesy on Twitter, courtesy of Brian M. So boy, oh boy, I hope, I, this is something. So you know, this that was again, no team in four northern American sports, right? The four North American sports major major sports have has had a eight game winning streak since March of 2000, only the Charlotte Hornets have not with seven. So there's a graphic now with all the logos and the Hornets on one side, Hornets one in one category, every other team in those four major sports. Do you know what they, uh, you know what they, uh, what they did? They replaced the NFL with the WNBA. Oh, what are we?

35:42Are we joking? Wait, is this, this is a different graphic, though, from whatever you originally cited? Right. So I don't know if the ESPN research came up with the graphic or then co or co-opted this one. But either way, are literally let, let us stop misrepresenting stuff. Nobody's concerned. That's not the four major sports. Oh, God. Anyway. So that explains it then. So yes, NHL NBA major league baseball and WNBA, every team has had an eight game winning streak. That explains why I could torpedo it with the wash and it's still wow, but that checks out. It is. But let's stop wagging the dog with what you think is important, right? If you're the one saying that WNBA is one of the four major sports, the NFL is not like I hope we're, I hope we're being, I hope we're being, we're not being this ridiculous about it. Again, it gets back to why is there a cowboy story every morning on the, on the shows, right? And they're saying, well, that's what you guys want. That's what gets ratings. No, it's because you force feed us cowboys every day.

36:45It's a self-fulfilling prophecy then, right? Like, it's just, I guess I already did start James, the James Lloyd, 2014, 15 Panthers went 15 and one only losing to the Falcons on the last game of the season. That went on to win Super Bowl 50. Oh, he see, that's before we knew it didn't evolve football teams. That was a row check. Yeah. Yeah. D Gen Southern, Jen Gill, love your take that Mike McCarthy to the Steelers was a quote safe high floor higher. In my opinion, if we gave Art Rooney true serum, he'd admit, since they've already won a Super Bowl in his tenure and have won six total, they're fine with being slightly above average. What I was really saying yesterday was the Mike McCarthy higher was a very peculiar one for a Steelers organization that is only higher three coaches, all of whom, right? No cow or Tomlin were young defensive coaches all stayed there for 15 years because they were young men. So they could. This is very off brand. So why to lure Aaron Rogers back for another year so that it is a high floor.

37:48In other words, AKA also known as, Hey, we don't want to suck after firing Tomlin. Because that would be egg on our face. So this way, we can guarantee ourselves a high floor. We prevent the egg in our face. At least that's the theory. Yeah, I just don't know if that's what you're okay with. Good God. Why would you move on from Tomlin? Chris of St. Bartz is Guardians under a Pythag is Guardians under a Pythagrius play. Yes. Well, what's one of the reasons it's not a doesn't fall into category of a Pythag play, but is a Pythag is one of the reasons why I ended up on Guardians under. That's a great point you made. If that's what you wanted, why didn't you keep Tomlin? He seems to do that very, yeah, I live, yeah, if we're fine with being slightly above average. Tomlin did that every single year. He was there. Yes. He did. I don't know if you know this about Mike. Tomlin. What? What a girl. What a girl. Yeah. I also like to be last week. Just like did. Are you tailing Pythagoras himself? That's right. Is this where the real Caesar?

38:49Is this where the real Caesar? Is this where the real Caesar? I'd like to give the Greek mythological God Pythagrius the credit for the Cleveland Guardians under play. That's great. All right. NBA awards. He checked. Yeah. Cause we talked a little bit about this yesterday with MVP. You got to play 65 games and Yokech has a can only miss two more and get away with it or two more. He's out. Two more. You can get away with it. Still. Two. You can get away with it. Does he get away with that to slim to me of a margin of error there to bet him, especially only at five to one. Shay Guilds, Alexander remains the favorite minus 330. Just real quick on this. Again, not to repeat yesterday's discussion, but is there. There is not another name that stands out for you as the point here. It's tough. You have to be higher on the Lakers than I am and then Luca would make sense. If you think if you think this Lakers team is cruising to a two three seed, yeah, Lucas numbers are ridiculous. Leading this lead in the NBA and scoring. He's always right there.

39:50I think 11 to one could be a play there. Honestly, Guilder might be, we might hit a point though where there is such a little love coming in for SGA. This might be a number that we can bet. If it gets down to like minus 200 or something, I think SGA is a bet. Okay. Let's go to Rookie of the Year in the National Basketball Association. We haven't talked about this in a long time on Rookie of the Year, but it is a Cooper Flag award and con Kinepple and VJ Edge come have had great seasons, but let's let's not get crazy. It's all Cooper at this point. Yeah. So right now. Only an injury will beat him at this point, really. I think so. I don't know. I mean, con Kinepple is a incredible story, I mean, you're talking about like 18 points per game. I think he's right now. But like Cooper's got this is like kind of the classic Rookie of the Year thing, right? You got two guys that are very deserving. Cooper flags averaging a little bit more points, a little bit more rebounds, a little bit more assists. And with an award that we just don't we don't count much winning, we are winning to be

40:52needing to be a, a, a qualifier for this, like, then I think it's just Cooper Flag and these odds are probably spot on, you know, minus five 25 for Cooper, plus three 50 for con Kinepple. Look, I have a four to one on con, like I hope he, that would be cool if he got home with it. But I really was not, I played that was not expecting Cooper flag to be doing what he's doing right now. Flag had 34 in his last game. The game before that when it was head to head against Kinepple against the Charlotte Hornets Hornets, one by two, a flag dropped 49 on 20 of 29 shooting 49 and 10, by the way. Yeah. He's winning. All right. Next from Rookie of the Year. Let's go. Let's go to most improved player. This has got to become we know who's winning this, right? Don't we? Denny. Most improved player. It's got to be Denny off to you. He's the, he's the favorite currently, Denny, of the, of the Portland Trailblazers. Yeah. Denny minus 125. Jalen Johnson, plus three 40, Kianta, George, plus four 50.

41:53I still haven't made my object. I bet that's another one. The Kelly, Bidlin bets I need to make list. Yeah. There you go. I have a list I need to make. Denny is one of them. Yeah. I think we're adding them, man. I think we're adding him. I know JVT and Zach both got on Kianta, George Betts early in the season, great on them. He's playing excellent. I think this is a hell of a most improved player race. Denny, Jalen Johnson, Kianta, George, all with incredible cases here. Um, don't just run through them quick. Denny though, Denny's up. He's averaging 25.5 points per game up from 16.9 a year, a year ago. Come on. And like, we always talk, we've, me and you have talked about this so much in the past. And this applies to Jalen Johnson too. To me, when you see that kind of leap and jump in points per game and we're talking in the double digits already and you're going into the mid 20s, that is an incredible feat. When we, when we're talking about the second third year player going up from nine points per game up to 17, right, that's great, but it's still only 17 points per game compared to 25. And this is what we're talking about with OVD right now.

42:54There was only someone on this show that told you this would happen. Yeah, man. Yeah. Most drives in the NBA per game. That's what he's doing so far this year. He's, now here's the only word of caution with Denny. He has been dealing with a back injury that's made him miss games here and there. You don't know if things get out of control for the blazers with losing. Do they shut him down? That would be my one concern. That would, that would suck. I'm going to shop around though, girl. I think anything like even money, I think is a bit, but we got to deal with that back injury. Jalen Johnson just real quick. Look, he's very deserving to up the 23.1s, one points per game up from 18.9 a season ago. He is up three full assists this season. That is really where he has grown. You've seen the triple double, double numbers with Jalen Johnson. The assists are way up and that's been big time for him. Can't a George, I look, he's got 24.2 points per game up from 16.80s up a full assist. I think, I think we have to be cautious with him though because it's the jazz and you know what they're trying to do.

43:55They're trying to tank. How much do George and marketing get sat down the stretch? I think is a fair question. We've seen marketing already just constantly battling to get out on the court. That would have me scared enough that I would not want to buy in at plus four 50. So I do think there's a little value here on Denny defense player the year, defense player the year. This is okay. We're very focused on the games available right with MVP as Wembee circled his way back into this. He can, he can only miss four more, but like you're talking like he's like a coin flip right now, a chat home, plus one 10 for chat, plus one 20 for Victor, Wembee, Yama many ways the most interesting. Right. I think we're at a point where we got it. We're at nearing a point where you could say he could miss three games where there's a Rudy go bear seven to one. Are we done? Are they done giving Rudy go bear this award? I know you don't want to hear me say it, but I think it's down to those top two guys. I think no, I think I you're correct. I do want you saying that. Didn't you grab a long shot? Take it with him early on. Oh, two actually. Yes, I do. I remember your team. You're right.

44:55I have a, I have a ridiculous long shot of go bear. Yes. I'll give you those. That's why I would say that. No. I just think they're not going to give it to me. I think when we might be a bet sooner, like I might be gambling a little bit with these games play. I sure do have a go bear. I'll get you those odds here on the other side coming up on a numbers game.