A Numbers Game | February 2, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00A number's told the story to always do. Swandles, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill I like Xander gone. V sent our number two of a numbers game at visa. And these courts, Betty Network, V sent dot com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV, series X of channel 158, Kill I like Xander Kelly. Billin six days before Super Bowl 60. Yeah, let's go. Is your excitement a little ratcheting up? Is it a is it sort of hovering? You know what? Well, I think we've, we've done so many shows over the year. I think you learn how to pace yourself a little bit. That's kind of what I'm doing. Last night of the Grammys were on 2026 Grammy Awards. I, when I was a kid, I used to watch the Grammys and the American Music Awards religiously. Yep. Every second. No, I'd be, you know, if I catch it, I catch it kind of thing. But Chris Foster, who is one of our tremendous folks here behind the glass pointed out last night, did you see the Trevor Nora polymarket thing? And I did not. But the story was last night, Trevor Noah,

1:00who was hosting the Grammys for, you know, he was joking to be his last time, because I think CBS is last year hosting the Grammys. Or he was joking about it because he made some comments, whichever one. But at some point at one of his bits, he said the word, he just dropped at the word potato in. Yep. And then he said in his South African accent, he said, if you had me saying potato on polymarket, you just made a ton of money. And then he called out some user or whatever reason. So, you know, a polymarket, by the way, themselves leaned into it afterwards. And they're like, what just happened on Twitter, right? They weren't, they were in a joking mood about it. But then, you know, you had some people commenting on that, saying, well, there it is, insider trading platform, which, hey, in some markets, it kind of can be. And that was just an interesting little example of it. Wes Reynolds, who was a keen observer of all things, Grammys and Oscars and all kinds of awards market joins us now to talk college hoops eventually. But I find this Grammy thing pretty interesting. Wes joins now courtesy of progressive guest line at West Reynolds one. That's the number one.

2:00How you doing? Wes? I'm doing well, Gil. How are you? Good. Did you catch the potato line? I did. I did not know until, until Chris pointed that out to you guys before we were getting set up to come on here that somebody made a lot of money. Like, I just, it was kind of like, oh, it's just some innocuous random joke. So I didn't even figure it out that apparently that this was a big deal on the prediction markets last night because I do monitor the odds on terms of a lot of the awards. It was pretty much the main favorites that won the big four awards. I think there was the best pop solo performance winner was like 10 to one. That was the biggest long shot. I saw of the awards that actually aired on the main broadcast on CBS, but it was pretty much a chalky night in terms of the main award winners. Yeah. And Olivia Dean won Best New Artist. I have literally been listening to Olivia Dean for five years, but she won Best New Artist last night, which is very, and you could tell.

3:00Yeah. I'm sorry to interrupt you, but you could tell they did all the Best New Artist performers, like back to back to back to back to back. I think they're like eight of them. And she and Leon Thomas to me were the two of the eight that were like real standouts. It's like, yo, they've got it. These other ones, it's kind of like a lot of auto-tune, just general pop type stuff. And I was like, man, they don't measure up to these two. You know, I know I'm old. When Bieber gets out there shirtless, and he's like does like one guitar chord, and then he like just presses the loop button. And then he just sings the same riff a hundred times and people are like, oh my God, that was amazing. Yeah. And I'm at home going like, was it? What about why was it really amazing? But I love the fact that, yeah, Olivia Dean New Artist, but that's like a kind of thing with the New Artist. I remember when Huey Lewis and the news, one best new artist in the mid 80s, his comment at the time was also the same sort of thing. I'll paraphrase it was sort of like, thanks to those of us who have just made us an overnight sensation, right? They'd been around for like six, seven years at that point.

4:02So always interesting. So yeah, a chalky night at the Grammys for those who are interested in betting such things. But you can bet these things, right? At Polly Market, at Kalshi, at these prediction markets. So I just a different way to bet. And a way that most people are betting these days. Okay. Two college basketball. Let's talk about some of these games from this past weekend, Wes. Let's start with the Friday night. Michigan and Michigan state. Michigan wins it in over time. You leave the game with a good feeling about both teams, just like you entered the game, I would imagine, right? I do. And Michigan, I think they were on something like an 0 and 7 ETS run before they won up in the Brazilian center on Friday. But that's a byproduct of being very good. And you get priced to the moon. Look, they were laying double digits to what was an undefeated Nebraska team at the time. And now, by the way, Nebraska has lost two in a row. They lose to Illinois at home on Sunday. Read Bass was their big guy. Was a near 100%. But I think with with with Michigan, they're still one of the teams to beat.

5:04Like in terms of my power ratings, I think I knocked them down to two in Arizona. I'm like a half point ahead of them. As Arizona keeps rolling along, but Michigan is still very good. They just haven't hit any threes in big 10 play. And the fact that they're still beating these teams, not shooting the three ball very well, and maybe turning it over a little bit too much tells you I think that this club has a real high ceiling. How about Kansas beating BYU by eight on Saturday? Peterson was just awesome as always. And then he sort of disappears, right? Didn't doesn't play the last 17 minutes. What did you make of that? Yeah, he's he's been battling this injury. And you know, I don't know if it's load management or what it is. But that first app was as good as as you'll see. And why people are now saying, Hey, this guy might be the clear cut number one in the draft. And maybe not debonsa from BYU, who's also been outstanding as a freshman is certainly in the mix. Booser from Duke as well. But yeah, Kansas, you know, it's a little bit of a weird team to handicap, though, because obviously with Peterson,

6:04their offense goes to a different level. And that's why I had the Oberon Saturday, because I was like, well, they're ruined and probable and he's going to play. And they didn't play hardly in the second half. So it's like, oh, my gosh. Am I going to have to like buy out of this total here? Is this thing going to slow down? But BYU did what BYU's done in the last couple of games. They got down big and then they made runs late. Like they stole that game against Arizona last Monday night. And then they had cut it. Do I believe a one score game at one point or one possession game late in the second half before Kansas was able to put it away? But Kansas certainly with Peterson has a very high ceiling. But without him, you know, they're kind of like, you know, maybe at top 12 to 15 team without him. You think he's the first pick in the draft, Aaron Peterson? Hey, he has been super impressive to me. And I'm always a little bit reluctant to embrace, you know, these comparisons to other NBA players. But there were so many people and people whose opinions I respect say he's got a little bit of Kobe in him, you know, in terms of how he plays. In terms of how he can score just so smooth.

7:04And so easy. So he's looking like number one. I think the bonds certainly as a contender, Cameron Booser. Cameron Booser might be the player of the year, even if he's not the number one pick in the draft, because he just he gives dukes those buckets, because Duke is kind of a team that likes to actually slow it down a little bit. And they played very good defense. This is a real departure, I think from the final coach K years where the defense kind of lagged. Their offense was good, but they couldn't guard anybody. And John Shire has got a bunch of young guys, a bunch of freshmen. A couple of soft moors. And they've really embraced playing defense. I'm watching them against Virginia Tech on Saturday. And Virginia Tech's a competent, probably NCAA tournament team, you know, not not a very good seed, but probably would be in the NCAA tournament. And they couldn't get into their offense at all. Like, you know, there's 10 seconds on the shot clock and they're just getting into the set because Duke doesn't allow you anything in the paint. The Darren Peterson, I just don't like gloss over that where you said some people think he's got a little coach over that where you said some people think he's got a little Kobe in him. It is one of these things right in the NBA.

8:04They're just certain players you don't invoke, right? No one, no one comes up and people go, I think he's like, you know, will to kind of like a will Chamberlain type, right? Or no one says, oh, he's very Michael Jordan-Nask or Larry Bird or Magic or whatever. Whatever the legend is that you would never put the pressure on. Kobe's about as far as we go with that, right? Yeah, I think so. And this guy, because I saw him a couple of times in high school and then in a couple of those all-star games and he can't really put too much stock into those things because those kids are just wanting to showcase and kind of show and go and not really play a lot of defense. But this guy's given Kansas certainly another dynamic. Kansas is a good team without him with Floyd Bedouin-Go, the big guy down low and the other guys. But he just gives them a different dynamic where he puts them up in that top echelon of the big 12, which I think is the best conference when you have Arizona. When you have Houston who's still very good. When you have Iowa State, you have BYU, the Texas Tech as well.

9:05So you look at the top of that conference and that puts Kansas right in the mix. If he's not there, there might be the fourth or fifth best team in that conference. What about, oh, I'm sorry. I was gonna say, I'll tell you fellas, like this was, if it wasn't for the weird injury stuff with him, I would have bet this already by now. Wait, I think he's separated himself from the band. So I think the band says really, really good. I think he's a really good player. Darren Peterson looks like he's ready to score in the NBA now. You're, you're right about the injury thing though. Yeah, like it's, I mean, you've had weird injuries like all season long. It's a little, it's just a little too young for all. Yeah, yeah. Um, I won't ask you about Florida Alabama because I, I'm tired of people trying to make Alabama a thing. Um, but Illinois and Nebraska yesterday. So Nebraska basically repeats what Vandy just did. You're undefeated the whole way then you lose multiple games. Um, I don't know how you feel about Nebraska. I don't, I don't feel that much worse about them. Even after having lost twice. How do you feel about Illinois who when I did the first iteration of the college basketball formula last week? They were on the outside looking in only because I think there were 29th if memory serves, uh, adjusted defensive efficiency at Ken Palm,

10:06but number one offense. How do you feel about the Eli and I this year? Well, and keep in mind, they're without Kyle and Boswell, the former Arizona player. I think it's like a fifth or six year guy at Illinois. But Keaton Wagler, the, the star freshman, look, he went for 46 last week at Mackie Arena at Purdue. Purdue's defense is usually traditionally very good. They just don't allow that. And he has 28 yesterday. I thought with the Nebraska ranked mass. Just didn't have his legs coming back from a little bit of an injury. So I don't talk them too much because that always happens, right? You have a long winning streak. You lose one and then you lose the next one, which was why I thought Illinois was a take yesterday. But Illinois Brad Underwood's done a really good job with these international players. And this is a heavy United Nations international base team. But it's been Wagler that's been the star star. So Illinois absolutely up there with the, with the Michigan's of the world to win the big 10. We have a lot of really good teams at college basketball. Arizona, Michigan, Duke Iowa State, Houston, Gonzaga, Florida, Vandy, Virginia, Nebraska, BYU, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, UConn.

11:09I mean, that's a lot of teams. Um, does it, does it lead you to believe anything with March, madness that the, the upsets may be scarce? I, I think probably so. And I think we've seen that trend over the last couple of years, where the mid majors are the, are the programs that really get kind of screwed by this portal and stuff because the lower levels can, you know, supplant themselves with division two or NAIA. But it's these mid major programs that get squeezed. And if you're like a really good mid major, like in the Missouri Valley or something, these teams won't schedule yet. These power four power five teams won't schedule. So you're kind of stuck if you're like in the middle here. So yeah, I don't think we're going to get chaos in the bracket at all. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights. The sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets.

12:09Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit. With visa in pro. Numbers game on fee said these sports betting network back on the numbers game. West Reynolds kind enough to join us for a second segment this morning. As Tim Lawson is showing his slaughterhouse hard rock ticket from April 12th, 2012. Nice from the hard rock over there on Twitter. Harold Irving says on Twitter potato wasn't a shout out to Brian Stelter. Right. Stelter is a former CNN reporter who is I guess with Brian Stelter is saying. Shaped like a potato perhaps is what he's getting up. Oh, Norman Vegas, a little known fact of great unimportance. Share is two weeks older than Donald Trump and both will turn 80 in about four months. Yeah, share share had trouble with it. She was supposed to accept an award.

13:09Give her speech. Then she was supposed to list the nominees for I guess record of the year was it. Record of your artist. I'm not sure what whether category was she was supposed to list the nominees. This is the big grand finale and give the winner. So she gives her speech. Then she forgets that she has to read the nominees. So she's walking off stage and Trevor Noah has to be like, Oh, share you could stay behind right. He was trying to play for what we're talking about before he's trying to be gracious about it. So then she reads those flawlessly. But then when she goes the winner, she thinks it's going to be on the prompter. She says it's much on air. Then she realized she opens the envelope and she goes and the winner is Luther Van Groce or something like that. We're like, well, which is anyway, Kendrick, Kendrick Lamar wanted. Easy, easy, easy pickings to browsing my news feed this morning. It said to my wife, bugs, bunny, want to Grammy? That would be that would be your Super Bowl halftime performer, bad bunny. Just want to let you know that. And Colin Murphy, they had to give Paul Georgia a heavy penalty because this type of violation is unprecedented. P E D's podcast enhancing drugs.

14:09Okay. I always got to comment there. Wes Reynolds, as I mentioned, kind enough to join us. Wes shared got it together at the end, I guess, huh? Not not quite. Yeah, she said the winner Luther Van Groce because the song is called Luther. Of course, that Kendrick Lamar and SZA did kind of a little bit of a recreation of the Cheryl Lynn. Luther Van Groce, if this world were mine, which was originally written by the way by Marvin Gaye. Yes. Wasn't it wasn't mentioned in the speech, like in the moment, all the hubbub. And we get on stage and getting everybody on stage, you know, you're kind of rush to get your speech done for the music plays you off. But yeah, share came out and then she got, I think, a lifetime achievement award gave a little speech and then started to kind of walk back. I was like, is this a bit? This has to be a bit, but it didn't seem at the end. It didn't seem at the end like it was a bit for share. But fortunately got it done. Kendrick Lamar wins another record of the year. I love that you know if that if this world were mine was written by Marvin Gaye and son by Cheryl Lynn and Luther.

15:11That's all I have to say. Wes Reynolds, everybody even throw anything at him and he throws it right back at it. All right, let's go to college basketball. I know it's a, I know it's a small slate tonight. You don't have one play though. Yeah, I played a play in the big sky. Monday is always like a really, really small card. A lot of like mid majors. You have the ACC, big 12 double header, but I went to the big sky. I played Idaho State plus seven. There's a lot of six and a half. There's still some seven out there. Portland State actually played these guys about a couple of weeks ago in Pocotello. Idaho State has 17 point lead and blew it and ended up losing an overtime. Portland State's been winning a lot of these close variance games. And also this is their third game in five days for Portland State. So, you know, maybe a little fatigue kicks in. And that's why I think you've seen this tick down a little bit. So Idaho State for me plus seven. Neil Lomax and Clintonier are not walking through that door for the Portland State play games was. They are not. Okay. They are certainly not now. No, all right. Super Bowl 60, six days away.

16:12Wes, I'm not sure if you're aware of this game is being played in six days. Four and a half is where it remains in favor of the Seahawks. Have you made it in 45, by the way, as the total? Have you made a play on side or total? Let's start there. Did play a little bit of under summit 46 and some at 45 and a half. We'll see if that gets back. I think with so much money in the market, it is hard to see any type of move either way. You know, it's going to be a half point here, half point there. And we talked about this last week that certain bookmakers, they'll move a number anyway. Just say, okay, what am I going to get at this number? Where it's not necessarily movement. It's kind of a movement on air to kind of experiment a little bit early in the week before all the big money comes in because the overwhelming majority that money hasn't even been bet yet. Even with the props having been been been been bet out since midweek. So that's why you're seeing a couple of fives out there. You know, I see South Point out there with five kind of against the market. And there's four and a half pretty much everywhere.

17:12I think it's going to stay right where it is. In terms of point spread, I didn't find any personal value. I think Seattle wins the game. I'd love to get a cheap money line at minus two dollars. But I think maybe two and a quarter is going to be is going to be probably as low as it goes. You know, I'd love to see some patriots money. And I think it could come in. You know, because as you go on, I think more and more people because there's such a gap in between here with two weeks. They start to be able to make a case for the underdog. And they start to kind of convince themselves and they go maybe against that first instinct. And the underdogs, by the way, have done very well recently against the number in the Super Bowl, even though those trends. I think can be irrelevant without context. Yeah. And that's what West is alluding to those for was alluding to there for those who missed it. Usually in the Super Bowl, right, the folks who bet the underdog tend to bet the the money line. And so sometimes we get an artificially muted price on the favorite on the money line. But if the spread continues to drift the way it is or if that's a port 10 of things to come, what West is saying is probably true.

18:16Probably won't get below $2 on the money line. But who knows? We'll see between now and game time. What remind us on props? Are you a pretty heavy Super Bowl prop better? Or are you kind of measured in it? It varies year to year. There have been some years I've done well where I've had I think a better read on the game than I certainly do this year for Super Bowl 60. But you know, I'm involved, but I'm not overly involved. I know you had you had Steve Fezek on last week talking about, you know, just because you have a game script like don't line up all the props accordingly. And you know, that's people speaking from experience because sometimes that's going to go well and sometimes that's going to go horribly. Yes. So I'm probably in the middle here in terms of props just just kind of looking at matchups here. You know, like a couple I played was that OK, Seattle's number three and pressure rate, right? In the season. So that means Drake May is probably going to have to scramble. So I like a little Drake May over rushing yards at 36 and a half or 37 and a half.

19:16And plus the fact that Denver, even though even though it was weather in Denver, I think you're seeing them want to use Drake May in the running game a little bit more. He did it in the wild card game against the chargers. So they will have more design runs for him. And they've shown that late in the regular season as well. And then Travion Henderson, they want to get him involved in the passing game. He's a little bit more of the home run hitter. Whereas Stevenson, I think is kind of the steady Eddie workhorse guys. So Travion Henderson over his receptions would be one I would look at. But that's just looking at a specific matchup where it's like, OK, I think Seattle's going to get pressure on these guys. So how do you avoid the pressure? You have the quarterback run or a short pass to the running backs. Yeah, this is no judgment on this by the way, but I'm just saying anecdotally bring Kelly in for this. Do we feel like a Drake May over rushing yards is about the most popular thing we've heard? Or yeah, yeah. And you and I brought it up last Monday because Som is shouted that out on the sharp money podcast. He's like, I'm going to bet it. And I'm going to bet it now because I have a feeling this is going to be one of the most popular props bet. And I soon as he said it, I was like, thank God you said it might because I completely agree.

20:19Yeah, I think it's going to be one of the most bet props. No, and it makes sense based on based on what you're saying, game script wise. OK, what about MVP? Kelly, I were throwing this around a lot last week, which is, all right, Seahawks win is there a world. And I was on with Jared Stillman on Mad Dog Radio this this this weekend. It was interesting to hear because I think he had the right narrative and then he came to a different conclusion, right, which was he feels like. And this is a main, this is more of a mainstream media guy, right? He feels like, well, yeah, I get the Darnell narrative, the whole story that if the Seahawks win. You know, it's a great story, but he took it then after the comma was then. So I think they'll do anything they can to credit someone else with the win. Whereas our sort of, if I can, if I can just say Kelly and we both said this. Our sort of take after the comma was the opposite, which is no, they will really want to give it to Darnell. How do you view that?

21:19I'm in the latter came kill because this is, by the way, Sam Darnell is only 28 years old. Like we think like he's this old man. He's only 28, but this is now his 15, right? He, it's like he finally found a home and he finally got to the Super Bowl with this 15 because that's what we do now with quarterbacks. I mean, you know, you have to give them, I guess, the full body cavity search to examine if they can play in this league. And what not and what Caleb Williams, it was like first year, it's like, this is the guy that was the number one pick. And then this year he gets with the good offensive coordinator and it's like, oh man, this guy's a superstar. So sometimes it's about fit. Sometimes these guys Baker may field another guy. What it finally took four teams for him to get right. Because I've been thinking about this with Fernando Mendoza, my Indiana Hoosier potentially being the number one pick. I think Sam Darnell, I can't see another scenario. I know Smith and Jigbel get some support because he's a big play guy, but I think the narrative Sam Darnell is going to win the MVP because I think it's kind of like the media voters will be like, you know what?

22:22This guy persevered. Yes. He worked through it. Yes. You know, it was the same thing with Peyton Manning when the Colts won the Super Bowl where Peyton didn't have like a great game. He was okay. It was really Dominic Rhodes that carried the load and Joe a die. But it was kind of like an achievement award. It's like respect to this guy, man. He finally got it done. And I think they're going to treat Darnell the same way. Should Seattle and Merge victorious. Agree. Agree. I don't know if it's the same with Drake. Maybe it is, but not to the narrative extent that it is for Sam Darnell with the Seattle Seahawks and this. We've crapped on him for all these years and here he is at the mount top. It's his no matter what. I want to see JS had to have a huge game. And that's the way the two of voters do. Wes, thank you so much, man. Appreciate it. Thank you, boys. Appreciate it. Wes Reynolds, everybody. Part of the glue that holds this whole thing together. My baseball season win total segments begin next. A numbers game on FISA. These sports betting network. If you are betting the big game, make sure you're locked in with VISA an all day long.

23:24So big game Sunday, six days from now. Our coverage begins at 9 a.m. Eastern with VISA's pro football tailgate show. That's with Mitch and Paulie. They will be set the board early for that game. Then it knew it's us, numbers game. When we break down all the data, there it is right there. That's the list right there. Big game edition. Big game edition. That's what we're calling it. The big game edition. Prop points big game edition follows us with John Hansen and Tim Murray for player props, last minute value. And then it's Monday moves with Stormy and JVT tracking sharp action in real time. Then 6 p.m. Eastern big game betting live from Vegas with Matt Brown and Mike Sommets bringing you live odds in the best in game betting opportunities. And after the final whistle at 10 p.m. Eastern, caching out big game edition with Dustin Sweetleson grading the bets and celebrating the winners on the biggest betting day of the year. It's all they covered only on VISA. Look at that. Still have no recollection of doing the show last year. I barely have any recollection. Barely. Kelly left the studio Friday is like, what do we do for the Super Bowl?

24:24Yeah, we started talking about this show and I'm like, what did we do last year? I don't remember being here. We were here. It's definitely here though. Oh, we were here. We were all right. You said you had some news. Do have a couple for you. Um, the NFL announcing their more more international stops for you. Well, yeah, exactly. We'll play the first ever regular season game in Paris. The Saints will be the first home team. For these these makes sense. Uh, would you like your updated international locations for 2026? Sure. We have eight games so far. Yeah. So far already eight announced. Melbourne, Rio, Munich, three games in London, Madrid and Paris. Melbourne. Yeah. Oh, that travel is brutal. That's got to be weak one, right? Oh, man. Wow. September 20th. Roger. Hellbeds on making this an international sport. I mean, like we've always treated this pair pretty fairly.

25:27I want to say like we know we know this is coming, right? Like we've known this is coming. We the way they always talk about growing the game. You know this type of stuff is going to happen. But man, like this was. I wasn't quite about it last year. Like this past year, I was so exhausted for the international games. Because we, we have to wake up right six to eight more to, right? Well, not that we don't all week, but there's that. But then there's also this notion that one day there will be two international franchises. And then you think about, well, how's that going to work with travel? I still think that happens in the NBA next year. But like that is, I still think that's years and years away. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to talk some baseball. Uh, I am going to give several season windtables out on the show, I want to give my first and foremost my favorite one today to start things out. And for those who are new to this kind of thing, the way that I do season windtables and baseball, and I think the way that everybody should, but the way that I do them, is certainly before I even get down to the breakdown, the personnel and teams, I look at a couple layers first, one of which is Bill James with Hagrid here.

26:29Not the one that you learned in geometry class when you were in 10th grade. A squared plus B squared equals C squared Kelly, if you're scoring it home. Yes. This is simply runs produced versus runs prevented. In other words, runs allowed. And there's a formula that Bill James came up with. It's tried and true based on runs produced and runs allowed. This is what your record ought to be. Your win expectancy percentage should be this. And therefore your record ought to be this. Well, every year with the Pythagorean theorem, then you can determine who were the biggest over achievers and major league baseball the previous year, who were the biggest underachievers. And we have that list right now. Space simply on runs produced runs allowed. The Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels, not to mention also the Miami Marlins, were the biggest overachievers. They both ended up with eight wins more than they should have based on Pythagorean theorem. The Marlins? Yeah, they did. Nats Orioles, Blue Jays also on the overachievers list, but not quite as dramatically. Biggest underachievers last year. The Rangers and White Socks ended up with a record 10 games worse than they should have been.

27:34Based on runs produced and runs allowed raising cubs also make the base under achievers list. Now that the Bill James Pythagorean theorem simply tells you this is what they scored. This is what they allowed. It does not tell you how they scored these runs or how they allowed these runs. It doesn't give you any indication as to how those those were finally in the results in those two columns. Base runs, which is also called other things, right? Sequencing is what I'm really referring to is another layer of this that I look at, which is to say, and again, I always use this example every year, but it just gives the best sort of clear example of what I'm talking about. In any given half inning, Kelly, let's say there's a... Let's say there's seven events that happen, right? A team gets a home run, the three walks and three strikeouts. And let's say they do it in that order. They end up with one run score. But let's say it's three walks, a home run, and then three strikeouts. They end up with four runs. So for every series of events in any half inning, both offensively and defensively, by the way,

28:37there's an expected run production. Sometimes you overachieve on that. Sometimes you underachieve on that. And over the course of the season, you get fortunate or unfortunate based on sequencing of events. If that makes sense, I hope it does. Biggest overachievers and underachievers based on that sequencing of events. The guardians, the biggest overachievers last year as well, plus 11. Blue Jays plus seven second, then you see a bunch of plus six and plus five. Biggest underachievers, the New York metropolitan were really unlucky last year. Sorry, Dave Roth. Minus nine in terms of these again, these are wins above or below what they should have been. They ended up in other words, the guardians ended up 11 wins better in this category than they should have been based on sequencing luck. Mets were nine games worse than they should have been. White socks array, seven games worse, Yankees, Rangers, twins rounding out that list.

29:38So you'll notice that in both the sequencing and the base runs, the guardians pin the needle on both. And famously on this show last year, breaking our all-time streak of never losing on our favorite season win total of the year. I had the guardians under at 82 and a half. I lost the dinner bet to Adam Burke. They end up with 88 wins, 14 games above 500, excuse me, 14 games. I should say yes, 14 games just in a year where they had a negative run differential. So in other words, whether you take the 11 or the 10 in the previous category, they should have been sub 500. It should never have been a sweat. They should have been like 80 and 82 or 79 and 83. Instead, they were 88 and 74, not only eclipsing their season win total, but also eclipsing their adjusted season win total of 87 and a half. And as soon as they got to 88, then they stopped playing baseball just to mock us. So you asked them, what is your favorite season win total this year? Well, based on what we just saw in both those categories.

30:38Once again, my favorite season win total of the 2026 MLB season is the Cleveland guardians under Cleveland guardians under, which I believe is 80 and a half. Is that what we're looking at? 80 and a half. 80 and a half this year. So two games worse than last year. It should be way worse. So not only do you have that stuff. But as you recall, no manual class A, no Luis Ortiz either, but no manual class A at the back of that bullpen because of gambling scandals. And then you have just then you get in the third level. This is actually getting into players, right? So in addition to class A's absence, you look at their starting lineup of just their batting order. Jose Ramirez. Fantastic, right? Stephen Kwan, though not as good with the slash line last year. Still a player that fantasy baseball players are still you that will tell you they still rely on commons are still a good player outside of those three, man. There's not fantasy player who would draft any starting rotation, though, is where I really dip for me.

31:39Because you just look at this projected starting rotation, Gavin Williams. You have no idea from year to year what you get with Gavin Williams. He's just experiments with all kinds of pitches all year long. Nothing good about his underlying stats last year, 11.8% walk rate. Tanner Bybee, who a lot of people expected big things from. His cutter was worse last year. His slider became a sweeper. I had no feel against right handed hitters. Also just a guy who's underlying stats, not that spectacular, 4.34 feeling independent. Slade Cachoni, who four seamer is rough. Just a ridiculous 50% ideal contact rate to both left handed and right handed batters last season. That's brutal. And even when he was good, he had 85% strand rate, which is not sustainable. Logan Allen, who the guardians had a lot of hope for in the past.

32:419.2% walk rate. His forcing fastballs 90, 91 miles per hour. I mean, your margin of error is so thin there. If you go further down, they do have some hope with Joey Kentio. I'm not really buying it Parker, Messick. I probably think one day will be good, but you get the idea. Both from a Pythagorean theorem standpoint, a sequencing standpoint. And when you go up and down this roster, I don't know how this team is a 500 team. And it would take them to be a 500 team to beat me here. The Cleveland Guardians, Kelly, go back to the well for a second year in a row. Under my favorite. Oh, by the way, let me give Joe, Joe Pita shout out on this as well. Guess who erased the second most runners on base, despite being 20th overall and ground ball rate last year. In other words, suggesting a quote unquote clutch double play skill, which the really isn't. It would be the Cleveland Guardians, the same team for both. I mean, this team was insanely fortunate last year to get where they went.

33:47To get where they got to, they are no better this year. In fact, I think they're worse. Guardians under my favorite season win total of the Major League Baseball 2026 season pre-flop. I like it. I want to ask you about some nail odds when we come back. Okay, we'll do that. That and more, including Adam Burke, Guardians fan on a numbers game at Visa and these sports betting network. A numbers game on Visa and these sports betting network. Don't forget to check out the sharp plays at sharp plays. If you'd scan the QR code on the screen for more, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros. Check them out. Sharp plays dot com. We get tweets. We didn't go see the proxy clarifying earlier about that slaughterhouse concert. It was at the hard rock cafe on the strip. Not the hard rock. That makes sense. Yeah, that makes sense. I was going to say how did I know about that? Billy Charlotte Bois.

34:47If the Seahawks win, I agree that Darnell will get the MVP because he balled out in the NFC title game. How do you limped in with two mediocre performances than maybe not recent form, however, is also on his side and says yes. That's a good point. I think that's a great point. Yeah. Well, what does that say about Drake May, though, that that he's vulnerable. If the Patriots win, that he wouldn't win MVP because of his because of his bad playoffs. Not necessarily because I think we go. I think we go all the good defenses. We go that crazy weather game. I think he kind of gets some excuses. Oh, by the way, a lot of people are making, you know, something of the weather in the bay. It's going to be beautiful in Santa. Oh, sorry. We're too far away because it's always beautiful. It is. Like it was the sense that it's not beautiful. I heard that. I heard that yesterday too, but the rain. I was like, man, this is a week away. We're saying this. No. Mike Alvarez. Gil, you talking MLB win totals. The Monday of Super Bowl week is like during Christmas time. When you start seeing Valentine's Day merchandise being sold in the middle of December. All right. Mike Alvarez. Just for that. No more season win totals.

35:47The rest of the week. How about that? I was going to give three more, but I guess not way to go. Mike. Everybody turn on Mike Alvarez. I love Mike. Buddhist man. Hard out on West again. First segment. Boot is something. That's something. It does not miss a beat. DJ and Southern jet. Oh, you really want some obscure sports information. Listen to this. This is started to break away from the networks. Super Bowl coverage. But French 16 year old. Moise Kwame just made the main draw at ATP Montpellier defeating Elias Emeer and Clement Shadek and qualifying. Could be a future star of the making. There you go. Kelly, write that down. Sure. Jason Stark. You can call it unlucky. Or it's just not being clutch. Juan Soto left a small army of base runners on base last year for the meds. Now, meds were truly unlucky last year. They really were. Jim James sought. He says, oh, no. Guardian's under. Gil not convinced with our big free agent signing of Austin hedges. Sean Armstrong or a middle infieler prospects that never do anything. Adam has the talk sets. I was just going to say, where's Berk added this bet this year?

36:48Are we going to find out? Or have you already talked? No, I think he hinted that he's going to be on my side. I think he realized he got away with it last year. Yeah. Yeah. Got away with it. Sorry. Do you want to ask a follow-up baseball question? I did. We're just looking at the AL and N L odds for the league. Guardian's 19 to one. So this goes. The AL goes Yankees 4 to 1 Mariners plus 5 50. This is over at draftings. Blue J 6 to 1 Red Sox 7 to 1 Astros plus 8 50 Orioles 10 to 1 Rangers 12 to 1 Tigers 12 to 1 Royals 16 to 1. Guardian's 19 to 1 then dips to raise at 35 to 1. This is our best record. This is for just American. Oh, American League championship. Yeah. So 19 to 1 on Guardians Rangers. It's kind of in that like no man's land like right on the outside looking in price. If you made me bet any of those that you just mentioned, I bet the Rangers. And Jensen Lewis, who was just on earlier, co-hosted by the books. Which again, he does with Captain America Dave Ross. He actually texted right after that segment.

37:49And he said, and I think I kind of like this thinking. He says, I wouldn't even mind a sprinkle on them, meaning the Guardians for most losses. Ooh. Okay. So we'll go up on that. Just thought those odds for the ale were kind of interesting. You have 10 teams between 4 to 1 and 19 to 1. Yeah. They are the 10th team. Kind of bunchy. Kind of bunchy. Yeah. Kind of bunchy. NBA, you have a couple of places that I'm in the association. You had a good day yesterday. Great day. Astros was awesome. Caves and Knicks. Knicks were a dude. The Knicks are crazy. Like they were maybe so much money this season. I feel like it's been just as well noted their bad stretches as well as their good stretches. Thunder got a win yesterday. That was good as well. Yeah. Nothing that I have bet yet a small card tonight. There's only four games. Yeah. Four games. We have now shifted. I don't know if you watch much of that Knicks Lakers game. But we've really we've fully shifted into the peacock world now. We're going to do the Sunday night basketball.

38:49And then there's like Monday night and Tuesday night. So it sounds like this is kind of what the schedule is going to look like. Going 40. Have a big Sunday card. And then we only got four games today. We do have an early tip off. Pelicans and Hornets. This is at noon Pacific. So three Eastern today. These two teams play. Just check an injury report. Nothing major there. Hornets are six and a half seven point. Day for it. Day time NBA basketball. It's great, man. You should do this every day. Every day. They should. They keep putting Charlotte there, which is. But it all surprises me when this comes up now. I know me too. Me too. I don't mind it though. I know that there every time because this is a fun team to race to 30. The race to 30 is fully on. This. This is a game. Kill lean pelicans. Like this is. If we were making the Hornets six and a half point favorites over anybody a month ago. We'd be screaming crazy at the odds maker. So slightly in there. Minnesota Tim rolls and Memphis Grizzlies. I did bet the Tim rolls the other night in this match up. This is the home and then home again. Sort of situation. The duplex. If you will and Memphis. I know what you guys are calling the duplex.

39:50Everybody's got a different name for it. I laid the points the other night with Tim rolls. I got home. That's that's the only spot I could look to again tonight. I think I'm probably just going to live bet this though. See if the Tim rolls Memphis gets up early. I can lay a little bit shorter number with Minnesota. And then 76ers. Clippers man. I can't wait to watch this game tonight. No Paul George obviously for the 76ers. This team has been playing great basketball. The reason it is five in a row. Three in a row. Four of six. Four Philadelphia. James Harden and play last night for the Clippers. They were in Phoenix. I'm beating the Suns. The Clippers are also playing great ball right now. Harden questionable. So we'll see if he goes tonight. And be listed as probable and Paul George out of this game because of the suspension that he will be serving. Yes. A lot of laughing because the sixers at Clippers. Or as the NBA hearters like to say. An NBA finals preview. That's right, kill. That's right. Dude. Seriously. I'm Friday. Friday. You're laughing at me already on Friday. When I take 30 seconds to be like seriously though.

40:5070s. I wake up the next day. Paul George out 25 games. It's just games. Just endless amuses. It's the wild. That's wild. Yes, that's what I'm looking tonight. It would be 76ers and wolves a little bit heavier to the wolves. I just don't like playing those games where it's one and then another. Whatever you want to call it. The duplex. You do play. We get tweets being the book. I just want to add some more here. This is from a three, Jackie H-31, three one. one. He'll keep on keeping on with the MLB totals. Just tell Mike Alvarez to turn his radio down for the next segment and Richard Burkhart, Mike Alvarez, boo this man, Skitzo 360. Way to go, Mike Alvarez. I wasn't planning on betting any baseball fusions. I just love a good, you know, pile on Brian M. The Pelicans Hornets game was moved up due to expected weather in Charlotte. Thank you. Thank you for that clarification. And then Drew Bridges, we thank you. Drew from Boise, our buddy Drew, who we see at the West Coast Conference tournament here at the Orleans every year makes, I'm glad to, you know, again, we have two weeks to talk about the Super Bowl. We try to, for, we try to remember every little

41:51detail about everything. And he brings up something that we have not mentioned yet, which is I says, good morning. I recall you mentioning last year that Roxy, the great Roxy works, bro, made his MLB season win total bets on Super Bowl Sunday. I don't see any offerings at Circa or Westgate so far. When will they be listed? I don't know. I would have to ask Circa and Westgate specifically, but there will be shops like a draft Kings, by the way, which is obviously not bricks and mortar generally, but there will be shops here in Vegas that do have it. So this is the Roxy Roxboro angle on this. In case you forget, Roxy Roxboro, the legendary founder of Las Vegas sports consultants, among many achievements here in the gaming world from Roxy, but perhaps that's the headline. I don't know if he would consider that the headline, but I will they were responsible for the Vegas line for so many years. He loves betting MLB season win totals. He's come on this show many times and given his MLB season win totals to great success. And he says Super Bowl Sunday, when everybody's in line, making their Super Bowl bets, either side total props, you know, they sit up there with their

42:52sheets and they're making 20 different prop bets. He says the greatest time to bet MLB season win totals is right in that pocket before the Super Bowl, because no ticket writer is going to hassle you, no matter what you want to bet on it. So you can get the most of money down on a baseball season win total, because nobody's going to stop the line on Super Bowl Sunday, because they're so about getting as many Super Bowl bets in as they can. No one's going to give you a hassle. You'll just be like, five K on the under on the Guardian Shore bang. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah. It also like, it also might be the same with the apps. It's like you get a send to the trading team. The trading team is not going to waste one of ways too much time on a Super Bowl Sunday, such a great, just a great hack. Yeah. Yeah. Really is. Yeah. Roxy Roxy, bro. What was it last year? Were you stopped coming on? Yeah. So Roxy, Roxy came on every year to give his MLB season win totals and he was like five and one seven. I mean, these amazing years on the show, but he always said to me off air.

43:53And I even think he said it on it. Yeah. I think you did on it. Yeah. He said, I'll come on and do it until I have a losing season. And then I think he went like two and three. I think it was that something like that. Right? Like it wasn't this disaster. He went two and three is like, I said, I'm done. Hey, I tried Cokes and Monty is like, no, I hate it. I remember we couldn't get it. I made a promise doing three. Anyway, we love Roxy. Roxy, the very first guest in the history of a numbers game. Really? The very first day, I did an hour with Roxy Roxy. That was the entire show. Oh, did not know that. Yeah. Yeah. And by the way, proud that that is the beginning of this show was an hour with Roxy Roxy. I love that that was the beginning. We will come back. Adam Burke will join us to college hoops. I'm sure he has some thoughts on his guardians as well. Sure he does. We'll get his perspective on that. Maybe he's on, I think he's on my side on this, but we'll find out. Plus Super Bowl 60 is one thing. How about next year's Super Bowl? What do those odds look like? Take a gander. Next, numbers game. Vice at least sports betting network.