A man, no plan, Iran

It's today explained this week's big news was supposed to be that Sean Rama's firm is back from parental leave

But then there is even bigger news

So I texted you on the weekend and I was like, yo, do you want me to do the bigger news?

And you were like my name's no king step aside

Let's go to the president to see why he's doing war with Iran every time you see someone with missing arms and legs

Or a face that's been absolutely shattered violently

It was almost certainly caused by in Iran

And

Roadside bomb. He is not trying to beat the forever war allegations somebody said today

They said oh, well president wants to do it really quickly after that. He'll get bored. I don't get bored

There's nothing boring about this the president says he doesn't have the yips about sending in ground troops

He also says we accidentally killed the people who were supposed to take over from the Ayatollah

Sean

You glad to be back. I don't miss my beautiful little daughter at all

Ha ha

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We reached Greg Carlstrom longtime Middle East correspondent for the economist in Riyadh today Greg has seen a lot over the years

Has he seen this?

It is unprecedented

I think in the run up to this war

I mean everyone expected that there was going to be a conflict between the United States and Iran once

Donald Trump started this enormous military buildup and everyone

expected that

Iran was going to lash out

At Arab countries in the region because it had warned that it was going to do that

But the speed with which they have struck the the scale of the targets not just American military bases and Gulf states

But all sorts of civilian infrastructure

We've never seen anything like that in the Gulf

At least in since the the Gulf war back in 1991 and

It's taken a lot of people by shock in this region

Let's talk about what Iran is doing today

So the US is still bombing Iran is retaliating. What is Iran hitting?

So it's firing at Israel of course

It's been firing

Valleys of ballistic missiles there which have notably been smaller than the ones that we saw

During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran back in June

But the bulk of Iran's retaliation has been aimed across the Persian Gulf at the UAE

Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia

Armand all six of those countries have been targeted

When the war began on Saturday morning

At least for the first few hours Iran was mostly firing at

American military targets in those countries

Plumes of smoke seen in an area of Bahrain

Near the headquarters of the US Navy's fifth fleet

And our base in Doha also hit where there was a significant US military presence

Kuwait Saudi Arabia or Oman

Where tankers were struck just off its shores in the street of Hormuz

A vital global shipping route where one-fifth of the world's oil passes through

The regional headquarters of the US Central Command

Is in Qatar the headquarters of the Navy's fifth fleet is in Bahrain

And those bases were targeted but Iran shifted very quickly

To aiming at civilian targets in these countries

In fact the airport was hit by a second attack in the early hours

Of this morning with black bellowing smoke rising up above the city

There was the luxury luxury hotel here

Hit the Burj al Arab

You can also see the damage that has been brought

To several of these residential homes that were around this small synagogue

Here in the city of that Shemesh on the outskirts of Jerusalem

All of these things have no conceivable military value as a target

These are civilian targets plain and simple

But Iran has been focusing its fire on those

And then on Monday signs that it's also beginning to aim at energy infrastructure

In the region

A refinery and oil refinery in Saudi Arabia

Was targeted with drone

Similarly a natural gas facility in Qatar both of which

Have temporarily gone offline in the aftermath of those attempted attacks

Big explosion here at the Rastanura

That's the Aramco Factory Saudi Arabia's biggest oil company there

And of course this is state back

And you see look at the splumes of smoke

The global ramifications that will be felt by people all over the world

When they're fueling their cars, when they're beginning to pay their bills

We can mark this is the moment where that begins

So it looks as if they're on now not just stopping at airports and hotels

But also beginning to go after the energy infrastructure that is critical for the economies in the Gulf

And for the economies of the world

Hey why is Iran going after civilian targets

Why not just keep hitting the US military

The logic of it for the Iranians is that

All of these countries in the Gulf they are close American allies

They have good relations with the Trump administration

And they really do not want to be involved in a war

They have thrived for decades on this reputation

For being Oasis of stability in a very turbulent region

Whatever else is happening in the rest of the Middle East

The Gulf has historically been pretty quiet

So missiles and drones zooming overhead

That's bad for business, that's bad for tourism

That's bad for the economic model of these countries

And so for Iran the hope was that

They would cave under the pressure of these attacks

And then Gulf states would use their relations with Donald Trump

To pressure him to try and wrap up the war

They would tell him essentially we can't endure this any longer

You need to end the war because this is becoming unsustainable for us

That is what Iran has been trying to accomplish

With these want and attacks on civilian targets

Do you think that's going to happen?

I mean the US says it's going to continue its campaign

Do you think Iran will continue retaliating?

I don't think it has many other options

It cannot fight the United States directly

If there are no American troops on the ground

In Iran, Iran cannot shoot down the American jets overhead

Or almost certainly cannot do that

Because its air defenses are so degraded

All it can do is attempt to fire missiles and drones at American ships

Or continue attacking the Gulf

It's really the only means they have to try and influence

How Donald Trump perceives this war to try and impose costs

That might push him to end it sooner

You mentioned earlier that the response from Iran

Is not as strong as it was during the war last June

The very short 12-day war last June

What is that telling you?

Right, that's the Israeli assessment

If you think back to what we saw in June

With these attacks on Israel

They were enormous barrages of dozens and dozens of ballistic missiles

Fired at a time and sometimes there were hundreds of these missiles in a day

But the first few days of this war we've seen much smaller valleys

Sometimes only two or three missiles at a time

And I think what that suggests is that

Iran either does not have the capability to fire larger valleys

Because so many of their missile launchers have been damaged or destroyed

Or that they are trying to ration the missiles that they have

Because they expect that this is going to be a prolonged conflict

And they have a finite number of the long-range missiles

With the capability to hit Israel

So they are rationing what they have there

Whereas in the Gulf it's a different calculus

They've actually fired more missiles and drones at this point at the Gulf

Than they have at Israel significantly more

And that's because of geography

It's because the Gulf is so much closer

They're not reliant on a small number of long-range missiles

They can use short-range missiles

They can use drones more effectively to target the Gulf

And so they have a much larger arsenal

That they can use and they are using it

I want to ask you about what President Trump says the objective is here

And the president has been about as coherent on this as he is ordinarily

But he posted this weekend that the bombing is going to continue

Until the, quote, objective of peace throughout the Middle East

And indeed the world, unquote, is met

How do you interpret this statement?

At this point, I'm not sure how to interpret any of his statements

No, we don't get bored, I never get bored

Because if you look at all of these interviews that he's given

I mean it's remarkable, he's in the middle of a war

But he has found a lot of time to call seemingly every journalist

Whose number is in his phone

To chat over the past few days

And he tells one outlet

This is going to continue until I bring freedom to the people of Iran

All I want is freedom for the people

He tells another one

Maybe this will be over in two or three days and I'll cut a deal

I can go long and take over the whole thing

Or end it in two or three days

And tell the Iranians

See you in a few years if you start rebuilding

There was this remarkable pair of interviews

Where in one of them he said I have three candidates in mind

To replace the supreme leader of Iran

I won't be revealing them now

Let's get the job done first

And then a few hours later he told another outlet

Actually those three guys were killed in the first round of strikes

So it turns out we can't rely on them

I asked him about who is going to take over now

That the Ayatollah, the supreme leader is gone

And his answer was interesting

He said the attack was so successful

It knocked out most of the candidates

He told me it's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of

Because they are all dead

I mean

What is he driving at here?

I don't know, it's not clear that he knows

I think really he wants to be able to say

Iran has been a problem that bedeviled American President since Jimmy Carter

I fixed it

But what that looks like, what I fixed it means

We really have no idea

Is there any suggestion that

In order to get what it wants

The US will have to put boots on the ground

Do you want to go round to Iran?

I haven't heard much talk about that

But at the same time it is very very difficult to change a regime from the air

There are very few examples in history of that working

And so if the goal here truly is regime change

To rip out the Islamic Republic root and branch

And replace it with something else

It's very difficult to see how that happens without ground troops

I think the preference for Trump and for the administration

Is probably something closer to a Venezuela scenario

Where you find a

Client regime insider who can take power now

And who is willing to

Deal with America be more amenable to American interests

It's not quite regime change

It's it's changing the figure at the top

But it's leaving the foundations of the regime intact

I think that's the preference

And if that's what they want to do

If they can find that person

It doesn't require troops on the ground

But we don't know

I mean the other question I think at this point is

Is how bad do things get in the Gulf?

How bad do things get with attacks on energy infrastructure here

You know there's going to be a point at which some of America's allies start to say

Either you need to end this

Or you need to do whatever it takes to protect us

And to make sure that Iran can no longer fire missiles and drones at us

And again that's something that's

Perhaps tricky to do just from the air

Greg Carlström is the Middle East correspondent for Leading magazine The Economist

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This is today explained

And the hall to see senior foreign affairs correspondent and columnist for politico who is in charge in Iran right now

It's a very good question

Technically, they've said that they've appointed an interim council to lead the country for now

It consists of the president

a suede pizestrian

He's something of a moderate in the iranian system

Um, and then there's a member of the guardian council and the chief justice of the supreme court

They're considered hardliners of sorts for the most part

But to be honest, it's a little bit unclear in the sense that

Who is really running the military who's making the military decisions

There's a very senior guy named Ali lar jani who has a lot of power as well

Um, it's a little vague especially when the bombs keep raining down

How did this regime which right now seems as you say to be incomplete disarray how did it survive so many years

Well, everything through repression

diplomatic negotiation

Balancing its anti-americanism by appealing to other world powers such as china and russia

It has used any number of uh, of tricks. I mean, you know, it has had international relations with plenty of countries

If not america over the years, but increasingly it has become isolated as well

It was getting weaker and weaker and my sense is that the trump administration saw

A moment of an usual vulnerability and just went for it

It went for it with the idea

presumably that if you sort of take out the leaders of the regime then you get regime change is that

Is that what is likely to happen here? You know, it's interesting. I've been thinking a lot about this

The thing about a regime is it's not just about the people, right? It's not just who's there

It's also about the process of everything from elections to making decisions

It's also about power and how power is allocated within a system

The Iranian system was never built around a single cult figure that type of thing

To where you could just take one person out and everything else would change and you know, there'd be rainbows and unicorns or whatever

This is a systematic place and and it was designed it has been designed to regenerate itself

People step in when other people leave or die

What's different now is that the us in israel israel in particular because they're really the ones carrying out the

Assassinations they have just been going after as many figures as they can get

Even ones who aren't really in power apparently like people who might be related to someone in power

And there it seems like it just depends on how deep they can go to where the whole thing could fall apart

But then you still have the armed forces you still have the paramilitaries

There's there's a certain limit and there's certain limit to munitions for that matter

Yet you wonder if President Trump has thought through process as you put it

He said this weekend he hopes that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the police

Will work together with

Iranian patriots so the protesters who've been protesting in the streets

He's essentially saying that the military and the police who massacred these protesters earlier this year should now work alongside them

It it it doesn't sound likely does it sound likely to you does is Trump hitting on something here look

Strange times make for strange but fellows yeah, right uh there

You know there's been reports over the years that there are people in the military and armed forces police forces who don't like the regime

Who would prefer to defect a lot of these guys are there collecting a paycheck at the same time a lot of these guys

Killed thousands of Iranian protesters just weeks ago, right?

I'm not saying it can't happen someone might emerge

But I I would have a lot of questions

What does the organized opposition in Iran look like is there someone inside of Iran who has the

Political leverage to take over right now. I think the short answer is no

There's no real organized opposition inside Iran and there are opposition figures

Many have been thrown in prison many have just had to flee the country

There are some who are under house arrest that sort of thing and some kind of came from the system and

tried to change it

And so they might not have legitimacy in the eyes of many Iranians who really really want

Complete regime change. Oh

I mean, there's just not not a real organized group. There are different groups outside Iran

Who claim to be opposition

leaders and

Organizations to a degree

But many of them have not been inside Iran for a long long time and they don't really have the confidence and they haven't really proven themselves as having a ground game

Inside the country. Tell me about Reza Polavi

It seems like maybe he the the exiled son of the last shavir on might fall into that category

Yes, you know, he's been outside the country for nearly 50 years and

Over the decades he has every now and then emerged and you know tried to kind of make some noise and say

The U.S. should do something we should support the people of Iran

This intervention is critical in the sense that it could be really a humanitarian intervention

To protect more lives in Iran that otherwise might be lost in recent years his profile really has risen

I mean you could just chart it

But it's partly because he and his aides have pursued kind of a political polarization approach

They've really cited with the Republicans. They've really been pro-Trump and they have gone out of their way especially online to

Intimidate to degree and push aside other

Who are in the opposition who say their opposition leaders that sort of thing

It's been a pretty

divisive approach at the same time because he has such name recognition inside the country and because

He has managed to raise his profile. It sort of has worked for him so that more and more people even inside Iran

Chat his name and they say his name

But does that mean that he has

Cells or units for groups in on the ground in the country who can take over institutions and

Take you know the armed forces over that I have not seen any evidence of that

He says he's in touch with many Iranian defectors

Including from the armed forces, but we really haven't seen proof of that and the U.S. officials. I speak to

Do not seem to think he's a serious player

Wow

What about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps if they take over some analysts suggest

Possibility maybe keep an eye on them. What is that then? Is that like a military dictatorship?

So over the years we have heard reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Has grown in power and stature inside the system now the IRGC is not the normal Iranian military

It reports directly to the supreme leader. It's very religiously biologically driven

But also

I'd say there's probably a fair amount of interest in the economic side of things for them because they have they own large parts of the Iranian economy

They are probably in the best position

To quote unquote take power even if they put a cleric in front and you know that's a symbol

The real power could lie with the IRGC and you know this this is a group that

Could on the one hand be very pragmatic if you say look, you know, let's make money. Let's have peace on the other hand

They could grow even more hard line in anti-American and anti-Israel

And push even harder with having a nuclear Iran down the line

So yeah, it's definitely probably

In many ways the odds on favorite in terms of really having the seizing the mantle of power in the country

You well know that the United States has attempted regime change in the Middle East before and the results were

catastrophic

How concerned are you that we are looking down the barrel of another catastrophe here

Look if you look at the conflagration in the Middle East right now as a result of these actions

It is deeply concerning. It's a question of how

How many countries will get drawn in at some point the Arab states might feel like they have to attack Iran because it's been attacking them

This could get very ugly. It could spill across borders. It could destabilize

A number of places

Most of all it could all destabilize Iran. I mean if you decimate the leadership

But then nothing really rises to take its place. You could have what's called regime collapse, right? That's another term

and

It just could become a chaotic failed state

So there's a lot of concern there. I do think though you kind of have to ask yourself about the really long arc of history

Yes, Afghanistan is a different story

It's back in the hands of the Taliban

But Iraq for instance continues now to hold elections. It's gone through some very very tough times

But it is a somewhat functioning democracy the people there are freer than they were under Saddam Hussein

I mean, we're talking you know, it's been more than 20 years now, but

Things do over time change and the question is is it worth it?

Also, is it worth American lives and American treasure

To make this sort of thing happen and I just think keeping that nuance in everyone's mind is really important

That was Politico's Nahal to see ariana as budu and avashai artsy produced today show july myers edited and Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore engineered

Andre Lopez Crisato checked the facts and I'm noelle king. It's today explained

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