7 Bets on a Busy 10-Game Monday Slate

Good morning, everybody.

Welcome to today's NBA betting with fiddle.

It is Monday, March 23rd.

We have a 10 game NBA sleep to break down every side,

every total where the market has moved,

where it might end up.

What I action last night, what is still actionable today

on the card, and then we will end the show

with doing a plus EV player prop segment

with Betstan Pro, where we share my odd screen.

We look through each book,

Fandall, Draft King, Caesars, Bet MGM, Bet 365.

If you have others, call them out,

and I will sort by those books as well.

We will look at the true odds, consensus lines,

put into a devigued line so that there is no house cut,

and then still extrapolate what is better

than those at each specific book

and what is inherently plus EV.

We are gonna go through today's card.

There are seven bets that I've placed

along these 10 games.

We will talk about all of them.

What I will say is that before we get started,

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This week, I do a family visiting me,

so I'm not sure what the schedule of shows is going to be.

Let's probably plan to keep it as normal,

Monday through Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern time,

breaking down all the games,

but there is a chance that I just in prompt to go live

one evening, and I'll probably even do that at midnight

or later and just get it done with so that I can sleep in

and then be with my family for the chunk of the day.

So not sure what the schedule is going to be.

I will still do a show every day.

I will still do a show Monday through Thursday,

and then I will be joining Jay Money on Friday.

So there will be my opinion available on all these games,

my market read on all these games,

and then we will move on and get back to normal for sure next week.

But just stay tuned that there might be some changes

coming this week.

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Last night we sent out a schedule spots this week

to be aware of in the NBA included a player prop for today.

Isaiah Hartinstein over six and a half points,

minus 115 at bet 365.

It also included two spots,

Boston versus Charlotte Hornets,

and one other mystery one,

I will let you guys go find it, but fiddlespeaks.substac.com.

Every Sunday night we send a,

hey, be aware of this in the schedule this week

because we think you might want to action this opening line.

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The Lakers are at Detroit Pistons for this game.

The Lakers going for another W question mark 10

in a row tonight from the gold eagle.

The Lakers have been on an absolute tear.

A lot of their amazing fourth quarter

has reared its head in this win streak.

They had I think four games

where they were losing in the fourth quarter

and came back to end up winning.

Both games against Houston,

they were losing an overtime against Denver

after Austin Reeves kind of hit the side of the rim,

went around the weak side, got his own rebound

and threw it up and forced overtime

with that intentional missed free throw.

And then they ended up winning that game as well.

Luke Cunard splashes a three at nearly the buzzer

against the magic.

So the Lakers all season have been fantastic

in clutch time in last five minutes

that speaks to a lot of their veterans,

a lot of their leadership,

a lot of their basketball IQ and good coaching.

So hat tip to the Lakers for being on a nine game win streak.

They've caused me a fuck ton of money betting against them.

But in this place, it's like where do you price the Lakers?

It's really hard to price teams in such a hot win streak

because it does start to get inflated by the market

and it's kind of scary to play the other way

and resist it in this game.

If we use current market ratings,

you would have Detroit Pistons minus two.

The Detroit Pistons are also in a better schedule spot,

home on two days rest.

Lakers on a lengthy road trip right now.

They are on one day rest

and so no second leg of back-to-back,

no three and four situation for the Lakers.

They do have a one day rest spot

by the Pistons and extra days rest

and home court advantage

and Lakers on a lengthy road trip

where they went Houston back-to-back games,

flew to Miami, landed there like four in the morning,

played Miami, then went and played Orlando,

now they're playing against Detroit.

If you use current market ratings,

you would get Detroit minus two.

If you use my model and then factor

in the Cade Cunningham injury,

you would get Detroit Pistons minus half a point.

So close to a pick them,

maybe you'd shade the line Detroit Pistons

minus 115 Lakers minus 105 on Moneyline.

So looking at this game right now,

it's really hard for me to say anything,

but take the Pistons, I am not gonna do that.

I have been burned and lit enough money on fire

during this Lakers run where I'm not gonna be the resistance.

It's also not very key numbers in this spot,

going from two and one.

If you looked at the key numbers chart,

you'd realize one is the 11th most common outcome

in the NBA.

So seeing this line move from plus threes

at some point down to plus twos

does make sense.

The sharp people, the sharpest people have

really bad memory problems is a nice joke

that I've heard.

I like to translate and reiterate on the show.

They've forgotten that Cade Cunningham was injured.

They've forgotten that the Lakers

are on 10 Game Win streak.

They simply see a good number here

and they're like, give me Detroit plus three.

No, obviously they factor in those things,

but it's still a good number.

And so they're not scared of situations.

If something's a good number, they take it.

I did actually the under at 228 and a half.

It is now down to 226 and a half.

I will look at the consensus line

across the board right now on the total.

It is a 226 and a half or lower.

Only bet rivers is a 227.

I priced this game at 227 and a half.

I did know that Luca was going to play in this game

despite getting the technical foul.

Screaming at Gogo Patadze, I'm a fuck you up.

And then the NBA rescinding it

because clearly Gogo is talking about his family.

And Gogo says after the game,

he has so much respect that he would never talk about

someone else's family like that.

There's literally video clips of Luca

going up to the ref, leaving the free throw line

between the first and second free throw,

going up to the ref and going,

he's talking about my family.

No one talks about my family.

You can, it's clear as day that Luca's mouth is saying

he's talking about my family.

It's so obvious.

If you have any basic reading sense,

Luca acknowledges it during the game

right before he gets the technical foul.

So for Luca to come out in the post game press conference

and say he took it too far talking about my family,

Gogo was clearly in the wrong here in lying.

Luca's technical gets rescinded.

I do think that is the right thing to do by the NBA.

So I do know that Luca's going to play,

however, it was still an underspotted

to 28 and a half.

You can decide now.

I do think it's pretty much priced completely in.

Pacers and magic, the lines are locked.

I'm sure we are getting some news in real time.

I will try and look that up,

but these lines are locked.

I didn't really have much to say about it anyways.

Jalen Suggs out.

Okay, so that explains some of the reason we were seeing

a dip in the total despite Jalen Suggs

being a great defender.

He's also been shooting great, pushing tempo,

taking it to the rack.

So we saw this 234 to half, 235 be dropping to 232 and a half.

And so I always expect the total to come out right,

yet right back around there.

Now minus 114 to the under 13 is staying the same

on the on the spread.

There's a lengthy injury report on the Indiana Pacerside as well.

Neymar and East miss Yakum Topin are all questionable

for this game, but I actually going to think they are out.

One thing that you can use polymarket for

the betting exchanges and specific to polymarket in this case

because I'm not sure how it settles at Calshire or other places,

but you know, there's not much prop selection

even at Calshire quite yet.

But on polymarket, people will market,

make questionable players in one way markets with only overs.

And they will give you fantastic prices on the overs

on some of these players.

When we pull up Betstand Pro at the end

and we do a plus EV player prop segment,

we'll see, I'm sure you'll see Neesmith priced in there

because if the guy doesn't play, it gets graded as an under.

Like did he have six and a half points tonight?

No, he had zero, he didn't fucking play.

And so technically that gets graded as an under.

So people will market, make only the oversight

and let people bet the over against him objectively

at a great number in market.

So there are some situations to see how other sharp minded people

are pricing in whether these guys are going to play or not.

But I know that Neesmith and Nemhart and Ciacum

were both on those, all three on that list last night

of player props you can bet into where you could bet

into the over.

And if he doesn't play, it caches at an under.

And there was no underline, only market making the oversight.

So maybe that can become a tell.

I don't think it's a tell in the biggest way.

I think it's just a indication of what other

sharp minded people who are market making

on a betting exchange are thinking about those injuries.

Objectively, if you just probabilistically model

what's the 50, 50 chance that Neesmith plays

and then what's like the 25% boost to his line,

you should be getting a good value

if you're going to be market making that line.

So even if you don't have the information,

you could boost his numbers 25%.

If you think it's a true 50, 50.

And like long term, you should win on those situations.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are at the Philadelphia 76ers.

This is the lone spot where I have a minus CLV

ticket.

I played the under at 222 and a half.

Do not like seeing this at 224 and a half.

It was 222 and a half in the number that I made.

But we also know that Isaiah Hartnstein is active

for this game.

We like his six and a half points towards the over.

But more importantly, welcome back, J. Dubb.

In Lude Bort, Jalen Williams.

Welcome back.

Dominic Barlow, Joel and Bied are out for the 76ers,

along with Paul George, Kelly Ubrei, Tires, Maxi

is going to be out as well.

AJ Mitchell also out for this game as well.

He's listed as injured, but I think

AJ Mitchell is just suspended for this game.

And so yeah, Ian's giving me the thumbs up.

So the way I looked at this was I priced it as 222 and a half

perfectly.

And Jalen Williams was going to be returning

and AJ Mitchell was going to be out and suspended.

So I actually think that's a big boost towards the under.

Jalen Williams is a phenomenal defender.

We'll see how healthy he is.

We'll see how many minutes he plays.

But Jalen Williams is absolutely an incredible defender.

There's an amazing clip of, I think it's SGA

and I think there's one of Chet too.

And they're being asked who's the best defender on the team,

right?

You have Dort, Caruso, Kason Wallace,

Chet Holmgren, Hartnstein, SGA.

They're all fantastic defenders.

And so SGA gets asked who's the best defender on the team?

And he's like, well, it depends what you want.

Like do you want someone on ball on your wing,

just howling them all game?

Well, then it's Lou, right?

Do you want somebody that's going to be health defense?

And then it's, then it's Chet.

Do you want someone exclusively for rim protection

and guarding big to big?

Well, then it's I Hart.

And he's like, but if you want somebody

who's the most versatile defender on the team,

if you want someone who can guard big but play small,

if you want to throw a mismatch out there

and go small ball as a lineup,

but yet still guard the big very well,

you put J-dub on them.

And so that was consensus between Chet and SGA to say.

SGA really spoke it well into existence.

Just speaks to how good of a defender, J-Lumoleum says.

So in this spot, Barlow out, he does play with some pace

for a big, you were going to be replacing him with a Dambona,

Andre Drummond likely starts in this game,

all of the offensive firepower out for the 76ers.

You have VJ Edge comb in there,

but he'll be matched up with Cason Wallace,

Caruso SGA on the perimeter.

That's tough for a rookie.

You have a little bit of Jared McCain revenge game narrative

if people believe in that stuff.

I'm not too much of a believer

in the revenge game narrative stuff,

but I do think that this created more of an under situation.

At 224 and a half,

like personally, I would still play it, but I would play it small.

I'm going to look at the current consensus line

across the board.

There are 225 and a half,

so try and get the best available number.

Draft Kings 225 and a half minus 115.

I hate a number that moves against me.

I get asked all the time, Fiddles.

You still like this play that's moved against you?

Well, no, but maybe at the current number,

at the current number right now,

still eight hours before tip off, sure.

I actually like it because I do think it might kick back down.

I don't see it going higher than this.

So at this point, yeah.

But if you're asking me 15 minutes before the game started,

if I like the consensus number

and it's worse than mine, like no,

I'm not happy with that.

I hate my number.

I wouldn't bet into a pre-game line 15 minutes

before tip off at a minus 110 juice.

And yes, this minus 106 counts as a minus 110 juice

because the other side's minus 114.

So it's factored in the overall hold of this market

being 4.76%.

Yeah, we'll do that math another day.

Calculate the implied probabilities of both.

Add them together, subtract 100%.

And you know what the book to rake rate

is going to be in this specific market

over under a specific number.

These are the two way options in this market.

So you put these both into implied probabilities.

Add them up.

Some total, it's always going to be north of 100%.

Minus 100%.

You're going to get a 4.76.

That's going to be the house rake rate

on this specific line.

So I don't like betting into a 4.76,

close to 5% market hold right at post.

The nuance of that when I will bet right before tip

is like, do I have a 50 cents, 51 cents straddle?

A 1% hold, 1 cents splits, out of betting exchange.

And therefore, your implied needs

to drop to be break even or profitable.

Sure, then it becomes more nuanced.

But I assume the vast majority of people

who are asking that question don't have that fine tune

detail to know which market they can bet into

to lower their hold.

So I don't love doing that at post.

And so when I say minus 110, I'm just

talking about the overall market being essentially minus 110

both ways.

These spurs are at the Miami heat for this game.

We have a spurs minus five heat getting some action

and being shaded did move fandal overnight

from plus five and a half down to the plus five.

I have nothing actioned on this game.

The injury port is too confusing for me

to figure out.

Andrew Wiggins, welcome back.

Pella Larson and playing great.

Pella Larson recently really secured his starting spot.

It seems Nikola Yovic is in as well.

Probably will hide my hockey junior questionable

Norm Powell, Stefan Castle, Devon Vasell.

So those three pieces are so critical towards

line movement spread and total that I was just like,

it's really about getting those people right.

If anything, I would guess that Castle is going to miss

this game and Vasell and Norm Powell are going to play.

That would be my prediction on these questionable tags.

We did see Castle priced in the market on Polly Market

where it's like only overs on Castle available.

And if he doesn't play, those all lose

because it gets created as an under.

So Vasell and Norm Powell, I would say,

are more likely to go than Castle.

I know Ian likes taking Jaime Haka's junior under

on a player prop, Ian dropped that in the chat

and flashed that on the screen.

What you actioned on Jaime Haka's junior.

Ian's been very good at noticing

how the usage waxes and wanes with Jaime Haka's

given the injury report of the Miami Heat.

So he's been playing Haka's overs anytime

that they are down wings.

He is playing Haka's under anytime Norm Powell, Tyler Hero,

Wiggins, Larsen, Yovic, Fantakio.

When those guys are healthy, Haka's usage

and minutes takes a precipitous dip.

And then anytime those guys are out

because they've been on and off injured all season,

it becomes a great by-point on Haka.

So understanding that usage to injury report

has been the edge on Jaime Haka's junior

under 21.5.3 pounds of assist, minus 118 at BNMGM

for Ian on that line.

So I do think that is the sharp way to look at it.

How does the six-man usage change

to based on the injury report?

How do you front some of that news?

If I was going to bet anything in this game right now,

it would probably be the over expecting Vasell and Norm Powell

to play in Castle to be out.

That would be the biggest shake up to the over

as the spread would be relatively the same in that regard.

Maybe it comes back down to 4.5-ish on the Miami Heat.

So that's how I'm looking at that line.

We will talk about the Grizzlies and Hawks next,

but before I continue, drop a like on the stream,

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Again, those things go a long way in helping.

So just hit the like button, be greatly appreciative.

Comment your favorite bet on the day.

We need price, line odds.

If you want a victory lap, some CLV that you got,

I'm all here for it.

Love that.

If you're presenting that good process

and coming up to the show and saying,

I got this great number last night.

I got Spurs plus heat plus five and a half.

And now it's all 4.5s and juice fives, great job.

Celebrate it here.

Other people are like, you can only talk about current numbers.

No, no, no, no.

The whole, I'm here to talk about how I feel

about the current numbers.

But if you want to celebrate your tickets in the chat,

please buy all means.

Buy all means, go ahead and do that.

Who has the under 234.5 in Pacer's Magic and Gotten

in front of that?

Who has an under 228.5 or 227.5 in Laker's Pistons

and has a good ticket?

Who has a Pistons plus three?

Those are all been taken out by the market.

So if you were one of those people that grabbed it

and saw it and go away, well done.

That should be celebrated.

The Memphis Grizzlies are at the Atlanta Hawks.

Grizzlies plus 14 on the line.

Hawks taken some overnight steam from 13.5s,

even 13s to get bought out to 14.

Over under 240.5, a little bit of movement

towards the over in the last few hours.

I will say I do completely agree.

This is an overspot.

I am largely considering it myself.

Jalen Johnson is the man who is questionable right now.

And I'm thinking, well, if Jalen plays,

this line should increase a little bit, both Hawks and Over.

And so seeing that line go Hawks and Over,

I think is the market saying he is probably going to play.

So Jalen Johnson questionable.

Cam Spencer doubtful, out said your coward, Jamal Meshak.

It shouldn't say injured Jamal, Jon Morant.

It should say quit on the team, Jon Morant.

Awkwit, Awkwit, Awkwit, Awkwit.

Yeah, ever since Sharon left,

Jon was like, fuck this.

And then he sees Desmond Bay and start thriving in Orlando.

And he's like, trade me to Florida.

Get me to Miami.

I would say Miami becomes a buyer in Jon Morant,

or Brooklyn, like if, depending on what happens

with the Yannis situation, this weekend we got some Yannis news

of like the Bucks owner saying,

we're not going to go into next season without him

signed an extension.

If that's the case, we'll trade them.

Like we can't afford to have that lingering over us.

If Brooklyn makes the move, I think you could pair

Jon Morant and Yannis don't love the fit,

but you just surround them with shooters

and they do have a great coach.

If Miami wants to try and buy Jon Morant on the cheap

after acquiring Yannis, I would understand that one as well.

Or maybe they just ship him to Sacramento

and he's in purgatory.

All right, for this line, I'm considering the over at 240.

It really hinges on that Jalen Johnson news,

but both teams just play so fast right now

that it would be an over or nothing for me on this game.

A lack of Biggs, O'Connor was playing,

but he's shooting like five, three is a game

and shooting damn near 40% on them.

So floor spacing Biggs for Atlanta,

literally no Biggs for the Grizzlies.

The Rockets are at the Chicago Bulls for this game,

a spread of Rockets minus eight and a half,

a total at 228 and a half.

So I actually really do like the over in this game.

Still do, I priced it at 228 and a half myself,

but I don't think my numbers and model making

is properly caught up to the reflection

that Reed Shepard is starting for the Houston Rockets.

So I make this game 228 and a half,

but I've been consistently one or two points lower

than the closing line in recent Rockets game

and it's been something that I've been playing consistently.

Played it, I think the last two Rockets game

and three of the last four Rockets games,

I'll be on it over again for this,

making four of the last five Rockets games.

I am on the over.

So not only do we get Reed Shepard now starting,

which should be a boost to their offense,

their shooting, a downgrade to their defense,

because it seems like they're shifting him in for Tarisin.

So there's that.

The second component of this is that the Chicago Bulls

have Jade and Ivy and Aphrodite Simons

upgraded to questionable for this game.

So I think Simons might actually play,

if Ivy plays two, these are definite boosts

to an over having just more guards out there

playing smaller, going to be playing

with that incredible Bulls pace.

So this is an over spot for me for sure.

Would still play it, I played it at 227 and a half.

Let's find the best available line.

It is this 228 and a half minus 114 at Fandall.

I would definitely play this.

We have 229 and a half consensus across the board.

Even if, here's my thing,

even if Simons or Ivy don't play,

this is the price I make the game.

And then if Simons plays, Ivy plays,

we'll get 230, 230.5.

So I would absolutely play this over.

It's probably what I would consider

the most actionable bet on the card right now.

Houston Rocket, Chicago Bulls, over 228 and a half.

So I would smack that line.

There has been a little bit of Bulls team.

So hopefully that means that they're starting

to price in getting some players back.

But that would be my favorite bet thus far that we've reviewed

as still actionable and available here at Fandall.

Toronto Raptors are playing at the Utah Jazz.

Another over spot for me here.

Prices game at 232 and a half.

But we do have 231 and a half consensus in market.

I did play the over 229 and a half last night.

Sent that one out last night.

Utah is just so fast-paced, especially at home.

Their pace actually increases in their own building.

Their injury report tends to be a lot cleaner

in their own building.

I wonder why?

I wonder why when Utah is in their own building

and trying to sell tickets, some of their guys play.

And when they go on the road, it's like, huh?

Oh, you stubbed your toe on the way to the arena.

You can sit tonight.

You can just take a break.

Toronto Bryce Sensible in Column Murray Boyle's

upgraded to Question Boom.

I actually thought Murray Boyle's was gonna play yesterday

against Phoenix.

But then seeing the back to back,

I avoided buying the Raptors.

Raptors still closed at a great price.

So if anyone bought early on Raptors,

you really did well.

I tweeted out the math on that.

It just didn't, it's just CLV ticket didn't win, right?

So early Raptors buys from the time I did a talk to me post

until the game, time the game tipped off.

There was a few people commenting in

Raptors minus 120 money line.

It closed as a true devig to minus 165 Raptors plus 165 Sons.

So I did the math on my Twitter that showed

that that's a 14% CLV and X ROI.

Expected ROI.

So that's an amazing ticket.

So Column Murray Boyle's, I actually thought he was gonna play.

He still got great value with the amount.

I definitely think Murray Boyle is gonna play this game.

We'll check if he's priced in polymarket

because then it would even be a place

I would take the Overse and buy into the Ace Dimitri.

It's like, oh, you're gonna give me a 25% boosted.

Like I think it's north of 75% chance any place.

Yaka Pertle might even be out for this game

the second leg of a back to back

for the off injured Yaka Pertle and Isaiah Collier out.

So I like, I still like the over in this game.

You might have time to wait and play this

because if Murray Boyle's is upgraded,

like that is some rebounding and rim protection

that gets added, but then if Pertle's out,

you're gonna increase your pace and speed.

So probably close to a fair line.

I am on the over at 2.29 and a half.

That's a great signal as to why to join the Wapchat.

Nice little two points of CLV there.

The Golden State Warriors are at the Dallas Mavericks.

This line last night, I wrote it in our Wap community chat.

I hinted on it at the Talk to Me Post

where I said, well, one line is confusing me.

And that was why were the Mavericks plus three

and Warriors taking steam?

I'm like, what is going on?

Why this Warriors team sucks.

They're absolute trash right now.

They can't get it together at all.

Steve Curry looks like he lost his chops from the bench.

I don't really think that's the issue.

I do think hers in general a great coach.

Some of his press conferences are exhausting amount of lies.

Oh, Jonathan Kamenka, he has earned his starting spot

and he is going to be starting until further notice.

Literally two games later, DMP coached his decision.

It's like this man is always, always toying with us

and using the media as a speaking tool

for the message he wants to get across,

not just necessarily speaking the truth.

Anyways, we have seen overnight action take Dallas.

I am on the Dallas side as well,

taking some Dallas Mavericks here in this spot.

We do have plus two and a half as best available

line minus 114, Fandall minus 120,

Jeff Gings minus 115, Ben MGM.

However, the plus two minus 105

is actually the best value at Caesars.

So the difference between a minus 105 at Caesars

plus two and a plus two and a half minus 114

at Fandall right now, that nine cent difference

in minus 105 to minus 114.

That's the nine cents I'm talking about

is not equivalent in value to what the two is actually worth.

So the two is actually worth about seven cents

and a little bit north of seven cents.

So shifting that line, the plus two to plus two

and a half should be like minus 112, minus 113.

So I'm not going to pay a minus 114.

I'm going to operate in a vacuum

where all I care about is the value

and say plus two and a half is fine to play at minus 114,

but that's actually better plus two minus 105.

I played a plus two and a half minus 105

and chose that instead of a plus three minus 115.

If we're looking at the total, a consensus 230

and a half across the market,

a little bit of shaded towards the over.

I would agree with that.

I prefer the Maverick side in this game, just ATS

and maybe even money line.

Let's see if there's better than a minus 115

in a money line that we could translate this to.

No, it's all plus 110s.

So yeah, my preference would be plus two plus minus 105

at Caesars.

That would be a half unit type of situation.

Dallas side, baby.

I do understand that Poor's Angus

is probably coming back for this game.

Breaking, Stefan Castle, Devin Vasell

participated in Shoot Around.

All right, let's go back up and see this spurs game real quick.

Five and a halfs again.

And the under took some action.

Give Vasell's defense out there under.

He might make all defense.

I mean, he probably will.

In a menace.

Okay, talking about this Maverick's Warriors game one more time.

I do think it is a Maverick spot,

but at the same time, I do think this price is pretty bang on.

Market ratings make this Dallas plus two.

Then you do have to factor in Poor's Angus coming back.

So make it three.

So I did understand at the end of the day,

why this was priced at Warriors minus three in the beginning.

I think the Warriors are full fade right now.

I'm going to look it up model wise instead of just market ratings,

two things that I use.

It has Mavericks plus 1.7.

And then we could also factor in the rest adjustment Mavericks home

on one day's rest.

Warriors on the road in a three games and four nights situation.

So they were just coming off of the back to back.

Now they are had one day rest and they're playing again in Dallas.

So probably Dallas plus one is where I would have it with the rest adjustment just about.

So still a Daverick Dallas Mavericks play for me.

Davericks silly Davericks play for me.

Nets Blazers that is all bucks clippers.

Let's talk about the bucks clippers.

I think Hawaii is going to play in this game.

I think Darius Garland probably going to play in this game.

Market is starting to price them in.

I played a clippers minus 12 and a half trying to get that injury news right for this game.

We will pull up the latest injury report for it here.

Bobby Portis is playing John Collins is probable.

Kawaii Leonard and Kyle Kuzma are questionable.

Matheryn is out Kevin Porter Jr. is out.

Janis Anttikumbo is out.

So I would think Kawaii goes and Kuzma doesn't.

That's going to be my guess on this line.

But I do think it's it's absolutely still clippers or nothing.

If you're comfortable playing a juiced money line, that could be a good idea.

I will check best money lines available right now.

If even if you want to.

Yeah, it's it's best available at a wreck book is this clippers line and fandall.

Even if you want to parlay this clippers minus 750 with the rockets bowls over.

Like I think both my clothes is good lines without end up being a plus EV parlay if you gain the CLV in both.

So if you take this over to 28 and a half.

You tack this on.

I mean, just brings it to plus 112.

I mean, still probably good.

I would play them both at straights.

You could do this.

And you could just play this as a straight as well.

But I don't think the money line has moved as much correspondingly to the spread.

There are no minus 12 and a half.

Available unless it's a minus 118 at draft kings, but it's not worth eight cents to buy that half a point.

So the 13's minus 110 are better priced.

So I wouldn't reach for the 12 and a half just because the numbers there you get the hook don't like it too expensive.

Money line out go here at fandall and you also have the best available over under which is a point better than everywhere else.

For rockets bowls.

And so.

Yeah, I would pair those two together.

Or play both as different straights, but anytime the part lays I've done a lot of plus EV part lay stuff.

One of the base rules is like.

If it's at the same book where you get best available in market, it's a nice signal that in that spot, you do it more often than in other spots.

I'm not going to reach at a different book where I maybe have the clippers best money line, but I'm at 229 and a half on the total for the rockets and bowls and not having the best line there.

If you can get best line for in market it for both of the games that you're buying.

And you think both games CLV.

Then sure put them in a parlay.

Why do you often just bet half a unit if you do that enough is in 0.5 units just your new unit or is all based on the calculator you want showed.

So he's asking about Kelly criteria on no, and I'm actually going to change this.

Because I realize I'm doing a disservice to people following me and always recommending 0.5 you.

So like admittedly, my unit is, I don't say like exactly how much I'm betting, but it's sizeable, right.

And a unit doesn't really exist when you reach a certain level of working in this space.

It really then starts to depend on, well, what time of market are you betting into?

How available is that number in market?

Can you bet it at multiple books or can you only bet it at one book?

If you could only bet it at one book in an overnight, let's say like this is a NBA only situation at draft Kings.

Like maybe I can't get my full unit down.

So I can bet half a unit.

Right, maybe it's because I'm protecting account health of my line and not wanting to slam a line in an overnight to get limited sooner rather than later.

I'd rather get limited later rather than sooner.

Right, so maybe I only bet half a unit, but I realize I've come to realize.

So I'm going to switch this for the WNBA season.

I'm going to keep it as is for now.

But I actually think if you're, if this is not a concern for you, if it's like, oh, but my unit is 20 bucks.

So the limits are absolutely of no concern, whether I bet 10 or 20.

I'm actually doing a disservice to people who are following me and looking at the picks because.

Then they might think I'm only recommending it half a unit within their bankroll, right?

So I've done everything that I've done in the content spaces, try to be in a true reflection of what I'm doing.

Right, that's what I always felt like.

Oh, that's the most genuine approach is and I actually have this mirage.

I'm glad you asked this question because I literally had this thought this weekend of am I doing a disservice to the people following me?

And I talk to you and about this privately, I go, I think I'm going to just double everything in what I recommend because.

The people following me are not necessarily running into the same roadblocks and restrictions that I am.

We're like, I'll bet X amount of hundreds of dollars at draftings on an overnight and then use a betting exchange to scale that even further with the liquidity that's there, right?

And then that's how I'll reach, you know, what I want units, shm units.

I really don't think they exist when you hit a certain level.

It's how much can I get down?

What's my perceived edge?

I, okay, I will try and get that down at this point in the market cycle.

There's also a what I've come to realize is a bell curve.

To the moment that you realize you have influence in the betting market and that your action is going to move lines.

Or sending things out in a WAP group is definitely going to move lines because multiple people are going to action it in one direction really quickly.

So the lines going to move at first when that happens, it's really fucking cool.

It's like, whoa, I could play this or I could send this out and it's going to the whole market's going to move in the next 10, 15 minutes, right?

And it's really cool to see seven sportsbooks move their numbers.

It's like, well, that came from me.

It becomes really cool.

There was the Luca and Wembee.

Wembee's first game ever, I've told the story sometimes.

I'm not going to tell the full thing.

But Wembee's first game ever was when I first started working with some people who are like really sharp and betting pretty big.

And it wasn't like the WAP wasn't even active at the time.

And I was a much smaller better without much market influence.

And so I had let some people know, hey, that that Dallas Spurs game to 28 and a half is a great, great price towards the over.

And within like minutes, it was gone and it closed at 232 and a half.

And I was like, was that you guys and they're like, yeah, that was us.

And I was like, whoa, that's really fucking cool to start having some market influence.

Fast forward to where I'm at now, fucking hate having market influence.

I wish my numbers didn't move shit because then you would be able to add on to your play and help scale.

If you didn't have market influence, and then you'd be able to tell it was easier later on, it was easier earlier on in my betting career to be able to action something, see a line, not move.

And then the next line movement would be very telling of, you know, if I was right or wrong, because I use such a market and CLV is the backbone and understanding of my process and my handicapping.

So the next market move after I placed my bet would be, okay, I'm either in the right direction or then subsequent ones later, of course, and then valuing the closing line the most.

Would be the tell now the action will certainly move lines.

And then I'm just waiting there going, I hope someone plays this further as opposed to it being kicked back against me.

Now now I'm in the in the judgment zone of, do I still play it at this worst number again? That's a really hard decision.

Right, do I still play rockets heat at a rocket's goals at over 229 and a half when I make the number 228 and a half.

And I played a 227 and a half.

Do I still push it now? Probably not.

Well, I wish it was still 227 and a half because then I'd be able to add more at this current stage where I'm comfortable enough with my handicapping and I feel strong about it.

I'd really love to not have market influence.

But in terms of why do I often bet half a unit? It's because unit sizing.

So I will I am going in the WNV season. I'm going to double it props are going to be half unit plays.

I always grade quarter units because like it's hard to if you're big better. It's hard to get down that kind of money and props.

Half unit plays are going to be one unit plays. One unit plays are going to be two unit plays.

Three quarters of a unit plays are going to be 1.5 unit plays because I'm at the point now where realize I'm probably doing a disservice to people following me who aren't running into the same restrictions as me.

And therefore they're not winning as much as they could be because I'm sending out half unit as just trying to be most genuine to what I'm doing.

I hope that makes sense.

Unplocable. What do you think about using the paces opponents used money line as a leg to disguise plus EV props or just boost odds of plays you like?

I mean, yeah, I don't mind this at all. I have the same with any other line in a in a parlay. I don't care that it's a juiced money line.

I just care that if you're fronting the injury news on knee smith nem hearts, y'all come top in whatever being out for this game, then you're going to get great value.

I do think there's going to be like the pacer situation right now is a little bit safe in the wrong way to this question in safe as in a pacer's fan.

Paces have the worst record in the league. I think they still stuck at 15 wins.

And they can have first, second, third worst record to have the exact same chances at first, second, third or fourth pick.

Right, they're going to have the exact same and then the fall back to five or worse becomes all the same. It's collectively 48% to end up fifth pick or worse, whether that's having the third worst record or the worst record.

I actually think the pacers can afford to win some games at this point, whether or not they actually care to it all what it doesn't matter.

But I think that the pacers are in a safe place where they could start winning some games and it's not going to affect their draft position or their prospect of not sending their pick to the clippers.

It's protected five through 30, five through nine rather, but it can't fall further back than that.

As long as you confront the news with a plus the plus the other plus the line. Sure.

Low spats heat spurs under 240 plus 100 polymarket. Yeah, we see the we see the news on on castle, but I'd still be questionable to hit that.

Let's see where it is. Yeah, it's minus 114 here at fandal.

Who else thinks the bulls can cover that plus eight and plus eight and a half. I certainly do.

Talking about the rockets, we're talking about fading the rockets.

I think that's always always a viable option.

Would you consider a team total under for the 76ers instead? Sure. Absolutely.

And pivot if you don't like the full game under then just going with 76ers under those markets are up.

They're going to be completely correlated pricing to what the spread is to what the implied team total is to reach the current team total.

I mean current game total. So sure, totally fine.

If it all is referred to as Mike in the this morning's newsletter through me for a big ol loop thought this was hilarious.

Again, let's plug Ian's amazing newsletter.

Fittlespicks dot sub sec dot com every Sunday night Ian sends out the schedule spots. So go sign up for the newsletter.

What happens if an overnight line moves against you to bet the other side to remove negative EV. No.

Generally the only time I would do this.

Which wouldn't be bet the other side the only time I would do this is if I place the bet on let's say Fandall or a betting exchange where you can cash out or sell.

Fandall betting exchange those two terminologies.

The bet for exactly the same price that you got it at.

You're having you're taking zero loss in doing this and you just want to get off the ticket for free.

Then situational yes.

Like if that option is available yes and if a line is available at draft kings and Fandall and it's the exact same line you're going to take it you should put it at Fandall because

Fandall's cash out policy is better.

So if you want to remain flexible within your position I mean even though it's going to happen maybe 1% of the time on your bets still do it at Fandall.

If a line moves against me like this.

Total in thunder 76ers this line is now two points against me my options are.

So I have two twenty two and a half towards the under this is the one line that moved against me overnight.

My options are pay over two twenty four and a half minus one minus one fourteen or finding the best one in market and having a Polish middle where I can get fucked on two twenty three or two twenty four and lose both bets.

I could go into the alt market and move this down to two twenty two and a half and so I just buy off of it but doing either of those actions.

Betting into a flat market right here is minus EV it is always minus EV to bet into a number if it doesn't move that's in in basic in using the market as the backbone to grade and judge your process and grade your EV based on the closing line.

If the market closes flat to the number you have now taken one EV ticket and added a secondary minus EV ticket to it.

So you're actually in the long run better off just writing a bad number and taking what the minus five percent ROI minus six percent seven percent ROI that that ticket would generate long term as opposed to stacking another minus EV bet on top of it.

And now collectively playing paying into a minus nine point four percent EV right so you just rather yes ticket sucks under two twenty two and a half right now sucks.

But I would rather just ride that at minus seven and a half percent EV then also bet the current over and either have a Polish middle then if you go into alt lines you're then paying even more for points that are worth as much as that you're being priced.

So you're end up just shooting yourself in the foot long term I think it's a great question the answer is always no just ride a bad ticket it's fine.

So fiddle when don't you care if the line moves against you never I always care if a line moves against me sucks always care.

Do you live better than number that move nope.

How do you know if a team is getting steamed sharp books moving lines yeah any book moving lines.

Usually the sharper books are the ones that are more moving on action and recreational books are what's called moving on air.

Right. Fandall being like oh shit pinnacle just move this number two points let's move at two points.

Because otherwise worse susceptible to taking the action that likely just got taken at pinnacle.

So I think any line movement in market is important sharp books are often the ones that move first because they're moving on action and then bet MGM is going to move on air.

Do you ever live betting hedge no.

Same it's the exact same principle.

Like if this if the if the live total for the funder and 76 years is down to 218 and a half theoretically I could bet the over and have a positive value middle because my under 222 and a half closed poorly will suddenly my under 222 and a half has good value.

So no I'm not going to live that hedge because then that's making a minus EV move on what's a currently plus EV ticket.

No just.

This is why I want to beat the market consistently but it's never going to be perfect.

If there was a perfect way to do this sports betting would be solved we wouldn't see any line movements except for on news and then that news would perfectly be repriced and then you would get a new consensus line.

And then that one wouldn't move.

So you want to beat the market with consistency but you don't want to be too reactionary.

Said I want to be a baller shot caller 20 inch things on my Impala.

Great great Lee Rick shout out hit the like button and fiddle my get you there.

Thank you I appreciate that OK let's do plus EV player props with bet stamp pro and then we will get on out of here.

So.

Here you could see all the edges at polymarket.

And then if you hover over it why is the big why the big edge polymarket props resolved no if the player doesn't play.

So you get Jalen Johnson over ten and a half rebounds plus 223.

And then you're thinking like oh I can literally just arbitrage that with any of these other ten and a half rebounds there's a minus 120 in market somewhere let's find it.

Bet Chris bookmaker.

Right so then you could say OK you hover over here that's a negative 17% 16.94 so it's a negative 17% hold it's a 17% ROI arbitrage if you wanted to.

Then you could click into this and say well there's $308 there so I would have the $308 on the plus 223 side and use an arbitrage calculator to see how much stake risk you need on the minus 120.

And get that in between bookmaker and Chris you can't get it all down at one place.

And then you say oh it makes $17 on every dollar a 17 cents on every dollar bet no.

Because if Jalen Johnson doesn't play you're losing the 308 and you're getting the other ticket void it so you're just losing.

So it's really not a good idea to use these numbers as Arbs.

And that's why we see Norman Powell here we saw a bunch of castle I'm sure the castle stuff got pulled.

Yeah castle stuff got pulled because he's at shoot around.

The self stuff probably got pulled.

Let's see do we have Simon's.

No do we have Ivy? No.

OK.

Interesting to see the castle stuff was definitely there so anyone who took a castle over.

Has a good ticket right now we are seeing line movements being bet up in the heat game right now.

And so that's why I would I would avoid that.

I'm sure just moved the to 242 on that heat game.

Yep 242 flat on heat spurs now so I saw the under movement but it wasn't going to be actionable for me.

It's still an over 240 and a half at fandal minus 106 if you want it.

That line looks like it's going up.

GM just moved Caesar's just moved.

Bet online moved in the last 10 minutes.

Fanatics just moved someone put in their four bucks.

Imagine if I gave a full unit play at fanatics.

That would be that would be comical.

OK I still won't do that I genuinely even if I see a great line at fanatics not giving out at a full unit.

Can't bring myself to do that.

All right let's look at.

Fandall draft kings MGM 365 and rivers are the five books that we will do today.

If you want to have your book included in one of these let me know if you do have these books.

Just pause the screen when I hover over fandal if you have fandal as now and scrape through all of these blue rectangles in the market that is taking the entire market scope right here.

We're starting them in a true line which is devigged based on the consensus price.

And then we are still highlighting things better than that in market.

That is what plus EV means.

It beats a true devigged current consensus line.

Kevin Durant two plus steals.

A lot of steel stuff maybe Camara.

A little ball hound to money Camara.

Situation maybe drew holiday.

Two plus deals.

A lot of steals props well priced at fandal.

Nothing nothing crazy for me there.

We go over to draft kings.

A lot of steals props today.

I almost got home on a gaffer double double the other day plus 550.

That got so close to getting home he even had a basket.

In that then they the clippers I believe was the clippers challenged and got it removed.

Eight and double double.

Don't mind that.

Nothing like screaming at me right now with these lines.

But there are plenty of plenty of edges tied to Rome eight to one double double.

He could definitely get there on the assist.

He couldn't grind over any time.

Love it.

Sign me up.

Bad MGM seven and a half rebounds plus assist.

QG.

You know how you know Quentin Grimes officially made it guys.

You guys know I've been the grime the biggest grime supporter in the land this season.

We call the Grimes ratings the people who are better in real life than they're rated against the spread.

That's a Grimes rating player.

It's named after Quentin.

There was a bar stool video that came out where they were asking people who's the best player in the NBA.

Or who's the worst player in the NBA where if you put them on a March madness team they'd win the whole tournament.

So I was like Quentin Grimes you put Quentin Grimes on one of these 16 teams 16 seat teams they're winning the whole fucking tournament.

And I was like yeah that's a good one.

Quentin Grimes probably could win the whole fucking tournament by himself.

Bet 365 chat home grin overs a little stretch home grin plays.

Nolan Treyori over two and a half rebounds.

I like that one.

Motherfucker stepped out of bounds yesterday.

Can I just give a quick ode to Nolan Treyori.

Thank you my guy.

The Kings were up three points.

I have Kings minus three and a half.

Here six seconds left in the game and nets have the ball.

I'm like this is fucked.

I want the net state of three to go to overtime.

No, no, no, no.

The net's inbound the ball.

And Nolan Treyori steps out of bounds within one second.

Kings get ball back with 5.5 seconds left.

Kings get fouled.

Go to the line.

Miss the first.

Make the second game lance for your boy wins on a minus 3.5.

Thank you Nolan Treyori.

Your full on tank caused you to step out of bounds.

Even the net's front office was probably like great job Nolan.

A conglue overs.

I like that.

There's some good ones here.

GG Jackson.

Wow.

Plus 140 on the assist line.

When it's minus 180 and minus 160 elsewhere.

Whoa.

Whoa.

17% EV.

That's.

Yeah.

Those are good.

We'll do bet rivers.

A Dambona.

14.5 points plus rebounds.

Davy on Mitchell.

14.5 points plus rebounds.

Those are those seem to be all 15 plus markets.

That.

Bet stamp is scraping.

It says are good.

Let's check our heart and steam.

Six and a half that we sent out last night.

On his points.

Points.

Seven and a half minus 130.

Sent out six and a half minus one 15.

Full point and big.

Let's go.

I was right about that gross middle between Kings minus 3.5 and net plus six and a half.

Sure was.

Sure was.

Okay.

I had treori under 23 and a half pure alive.

You had me sweating, ending at 23.

What a lovely foot out of bounds moment for us.

Okay.

That is going to do it for us today.

Here are the seven bets that I actioned in the WAP group along with the promo code coming for if you want access to the WAP group.

Lakers Detroit under 228 and a half is down to 226 and a half as best available line.

Okay, see Phil Dalfi under 222 and a half.

That is the one price that has gone against me and it's down to 24 and a half.

Not a good bet there.

Houston at Chicago over 227 and a half is now 228 and a half juice towards the over only at Fandall 229 and a half elsewhere.

Toronto at Utah over 229 and a half.

Now at 231 and a half in market.

Dallas Mavericks plus two and a half that is minus 105 on that line.

Dallas Mavericks plus 125 on the money line.

That is now best price.

Dallas Mavericks plus two minus 1.5 minus 105 rather.

And Dallas Mavericks plus 110 on the money line.

So those are good as well.

Clippers minus 12 and a half, which was a minus 110 is now 13 minus 110 best available.

So nice half point of CLV there as well.

So those wouldn't be the seven bets that I actioned last night.

I did post to my Twitter the messages a screenshot of the messages that I sent.

So you could actually see what the what looks like that is the direct picks channel that is just coming from me.

There's a community chat as well for people to talk to.

But the my picks are in a very clean one place where you could just easily look and see what was actioned in there as well.

These were the seven bets.

Six of them are ahead of market right now in terms of a promo code.

If you're looking to sign up for the WAP group use promo code end of the show all one word end of the show.

You get 50% off the first purchase of a one month or four month package.

So you can either do $50 for the first month or $200 for the first four months using promo code end of the show.

You can just do all of the picks in real time sent to you as the form in the form of a text message again if you're thinking about joining it.

Use the promo code but also just reach out to me if it's not a value add to your betting and I will refund you.

So if you want to join and you know in two weeks it wasn't worth it for you.

It doesn't help you beat the closing lines.

Reach out to me I will refund you to spend to be a value add to people's bettings give a free month any time there's a losing month.

There's betting resources in there too which are pretty valuable as well.

So really want this to be a value add for people and if it's not for people to pay for picks and sign up for that maybe it's not justified within your unit size that is fine.

We'll continue doing the show four days a week you can find me on buckets.

I'm not on any other shows this week just because of the time I'm spending with my family but you're normally in buckets three times a week these in once a week J money show once a week and my show four times a week.

So there's nine appearances I do breaking down current numbers.

But these numbers are likely going to move based on what is sent out so that those that will always be the best place to get the best value.

Thank you for joining me today.

Thank you to Ian in the back thank you from Ian as well because I know he appreciates everyone being here as well we.

We understand that there is an infinite amount of content out there there is way more content.

Then there is time in the day to consume everything so if you're choosing it to spend it here at NBA bed in a fiddle.

It goes a long way I appreciate you to drop a like on the stream that's all I ask share NBA bedding with fiddle with a friend subscribe to the YouTube channel subscribe to the podcast channel leave a little review there as well that those little things go a long way we'll be back tomorrow there's a chance that I just impromptu do it tonight but I don't plan on it I think I'll do it tomorrow morning regardless.

And just so stay tuned might schedule might be a little bit weird this week with me having family in town so from me from Mike from Kobe.

Peace out.

From Rikia Jackson over here.

Can't wait for the WNBA and some words from Patrick Beverly as he says you all subscribe to my podcast while you're asking me all these questions about hedging off of minus CLV tickets which I do not do.

Peace out.

You all subscribe to my podcast by y'all asking all these questions.

I forget to subscribe to the pod.

Did you hear that?

Listen to your parents.

Listen to your parents.

Subscribe to the pod.

Subscribe.

Subscribe to the pod.

That's fine.

Those are good.