6 Years 291 days - Analysis

0:00Alright, you are back with comedian Boyle and I'm quitting alcohol. So I know you're absolutely fucking frothing for Boyle's analysis on what's going on in the Iran-Israel-USA war and guess what you're going to get? You're going to get some fucking Boyle analysis, so what is going on here? What this basically is actually, before I say that, there's a little curveball that was thrown in there. This comedie-dying thing, I hadn't penciled that into my assessment. I didn't think he was going to get taken out.

1:00For the most part, this is just theater, but that, if he's really been taken out and there seems to be confirmation coming from Iran, the U.S. and Israel that he has. But if he really has, there's two things that could happen there, because mostly what this is, this is the final piece of the Middle East piece puzzle. That's a little fucking tongue-twister for you, but this is the final transition to Middle East and Peace, integration of Iran into the GCC framework, normalization, all the proxies have been taken out now. The leadership of Hezbollah Hamas, the Houthis have been placated, Syria is fucking being

2:03normalized through extreme violence. The last piece of the peace puzzle was the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC, and that was meant to be what this is all about. This was meant to be an orchestrated attack removing the hardliners. For the most part, that's been done, but I hadn't penciled in Hamini's death, so my read is one of two things has happened here. He's either agreed to be martyred. I mean, I think he was like 89. There wasn't much left in the tank. He gets to go out, a fucking hero fighting the evil West. That's the way they like to go out, a lot of them as well. Like fucking Sinwara or whatever his name was, but I don't know, I don't find that convincing

3:11tale. Because there was no real signs prior to today that he was going to get taken out. So that is one scenario. The second scenario is Israel has gone rogue at the last minute and unilaterally taken out Hamini going against all the pre-planned back fucking room negotiations that had taken place leading up to this event. Now we really won't know what has happened for a couple of days now. So if Israel has gone rogue and taken him out, then the IRGC leadership that remains will escalate and retaliate against Israel hard and there is a high possibility that it will

4:14fucking get out of control and it could spill over into an actual war. But if it was the first scenario that Hamini has elected to be martyred to save his regime, so even if he has been killed, it doesn't mean the regime changes. The regime stays, it just, it's a change of leadership. The same guys are still in charge, but it's the more sensible, the more willing to negotiate guys and not so much the fucking death to the West, hardliners, although I think all of them are pretty much like, yeah, death to the West. But the ones that say it out loud aren't really in charge at the moment. So if Hamini has decided to be martyred, then there will be some symbolic strikes on Israel

5:15hitting some targets to weaken it and then it will just be, it will be real symbolic, like a couple of days of some bombing and then it will be like, all right, let's negotiate and then within the next four to eight weeks or something like that, there will be peace in the Middle East for the first time in almost a century Iran will normalize with the rest of the Middle East in countries and reconstruction and economic development will proceed. Now if that's the case, if the Middle East finally gets peace, that leaves Israel in an extremely precarious position. Israel's role as an antagonist for the military industrial complex will no longer be needed

6:19and you can't have Middle East in peace without a placated defanged Israel. So that is part of the plan. So all the Arab countries and now the Persian country have been defanged and the last country remaining who needs to be de-radicalized is Israel. So there's a possibility those attacks from Iran are going to get through and then I think you'll find the media narrative around Israel is going to change pretty rapidly. The remaining U.S. neocons who have been propping up Israel for the last, well, since at least the end of World War II, they are going to fight pretty hard to continue conflict in

7:25the Middle East but now the incentive structure of war in the Middle East no longer outweighs the reconstruction and development which the people who have spent the last 100 years destabilizing and destroying the Middle East are going to come in and help rebuild it like the white nights they are. So my guess is unfortunately Israel's usefulness for the military industrial complex has run its course which means two things. So what you're seeing basically what's happening in Iran is the beginning of peace. It's the beginning of peace in the Middle East. That's what peace in the Middle East looks like. Very abnormal peace but it's going to be peace.

8:26Now that's great for the Middle East but if I was Europe I would be very fucking worried now over the next fucking two, three months or whatever it is. Once this peace deal gets nutted out and the conditions and terms and reconstruction bids and all this sort of shit gets nutted out, then attention, I'm telling you right now attention is immediately turning to conflict in Europe. Don't get me wrong. It's still profitable for the military industrial complex to be fucking bombing the shit out of the Middle East. That's still be doing it. It's not a moral thing that's happening here. It's a business, it's a financial thing. But the military industrial complex doesn't just go all right, no more war now. No they want profit still and part of the deal, part of this peace deal is part of

9:29the Middle East peace deal is going to be what the military industrial complex has lost in profits from that. They can make it back up in Europe, conflict in Europe, obviously Russia, NATO. So that's my guess anyway, that's my analysis. But we won't even know what's happened with Hermini until Iran retaliates. But I saw an interview with the foreign minister who is an old IRGC guy and he didn't seem overly bothered, obviously he's like, yeah, we're going to strike back and we're going to strike back hard, but he didn't have that look in his eyes like, oh my God, they actually did it. It was more like he was pretty chill about the whole thing. So we'll see over the next two days whether he decided to be marted or Israel went rogue. If it escalates into full blown war, Israel went rogue.

10:33If there's some symbolic retaliation from Iran on Israel, then Hermini chose to be marted. That's all there is to it. But a Bing, but a fucking boom, that'll do for tonight and I'll see you the far lighter.