5 Games and Updates on Kawhi's "Aspirations"

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to today's NBA betting with fiddle today is March 9th. We have a five game NBA sleep to go over every side every total where the market has moved where it might end up what is still actionable and then we will do plus EV player props with bet stamp pro where we go book by book and sort by plus EV odds in the market hour goal today as handicapers if we are betting NBA stuff eight hours before tip off.

It is to still beat the closing lines. There are plenty of actionable spots as we move through today's card. So it's a pretty exciting show to do also I'm on a six day winning streak, which is really exciting as we go for a full week of winning numbers on each slate.

So this would be really nice to go seven straight winning days. If you want access to all the picks in real time that we go over today sent you in the form of a tax message. Sign up for our warp group that is linked in the YouTube description. It is linked in my Twitter bio. It is linked in the podcast description on the audio only feed, but feel listen and podcast stream later. You're missing so much good stuff because probably we'll move some lines during this show as we give out some action of angles.

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So plenty of resources for you guys. There's a community chat. There's a community best bets tab and then also all of my picks in real time.

If you could please drop a like on the stream that goes a long way in supporting the show. We are a three man. We've here at the advantage and NBA betting with fiddle. It is me.

There's always in the back and joining me today is professional poker player True Johnson. Now I'm on a six day winning streak and I am plus seven units in that spandrew.

But you did what you do yesterday plus six and a half. So while mine is nice and pretty.

Right way rather goes plus six and a half units in one day. I mean I'd rather plus seven units over the course of six days because it's slightly more.

But like I'd rather go six and a half units in one day and then net higher than that and end up with four losing slates like it doesn't actually matter to have six winning days in a row.

What actually matters is your net take home, which is like you know if we go day by day, you're probably ahead of me in that sense.

Yeah, according to my spreadsheet right now I am up nine and a half units in the last seven days.

And how many losing days do you have within there?

At least two at least probably three on face value that's obviously better than me, but hey seven days ain't nothing to complain about.

I'm also actioning quite a lot more and more sports and all sorts of stuff like a unit and a half of that came from George Russell winning the opening round of Formula one this weekend.

So also that might be have been the best bet I've made period.

I think work for a guy named George Russell and I promise you he has never watched a sporting event in his life.

I'll just do a quick aside for F one fans out there. I'm sure there's nobody here.

I'm going to do it. Mercedes who George Russell races for as had quite the interesting preseason.

Basically they have more power in their car than anyone else because they skirted the rules slightly and they have been given till June 1st to change the skirting of said rules.

But until then they're just going to have 25 more horsepower than everybody else, which means they're going to be half a second a lap faster than everybody else.

And for some reason, the betting people didn't know this on the weekend as prior to qualifying George Russell was plus 250 to win and then after qualifying he was minus 350.

Holy shit.

Yeah, literally a six dollar.

The new F one was like the technology of the car, but yeah to a large extent. Yes.

One of the other things that happened was Max first happened decided to crash or his car decided to crash for him.

I won't go into detail about how that happened, but.

Oh, yes, we can absolutely have a please Mike. Let me do it.

All right, we will share the fan to a lot screen. We will go game by game every side every total where the market has moved.

What have we action what is still actionable. Then we'll get into player props and then we'll finish up with quiet Leonard some recent news and other public.

Public Torrey episode where he breaks down the aspiration scandal provides a document that seems to be government official whistleblower document directly tied to cap circumvention.

And so we'll discuss what that means is the clippers have yet another game today.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in Cleveland for a game against the cabs. We have a line at cabs minus 12 and a half a total at 227 injury report first thing for this game.

Kelly Ubrei is back. He was sick was out with an illness for a few games. Donovan Mitchell, Jared Allen, Tyrese Proctor are all questionable.

VJ edge comb also questionable after taking that really hard fall in the other spurs game where Carter Bryant kind of tried to contest his shot.

At the end of the half VJ edge comb goes up Carter Bryant kinds of comes in from underneath and behind him and takes him out and he lands really hard on his lower back and hip.

And so he's been missing the last few games after that fall injured Joel and bead Tyrese Maxi Paul George Max true so we do have no Maxi for this game.

It is that kind of makes sense why we have a spread here at Cavaliers minus 12 and a half a spread that has been moving from 10 and a half to 12 and a half a total that has been rising something we actioned in the market was over to 25 and a half now up to 227 and a half.

I think that the spread stuff is at this point paying on total wise drew the question I'll ask is how many points you think Tyrese Maxi is worth to a total.

Five think that really fair okay so I would model is a 233.6 with Tyrese in and we're at 227 and a half so maybe one point of wiggle room still towards the over available in this total there are 226 and a half minus 110 at.

MGM minus 115 at graph kegs over 227 flat let me make sure that is updated at ceasers yes that is updated bet 365 it has reached a little bit of a resistance point here at the 227.5 but I wouldn't be surprised if we did see this close around 228 and a half so anything that I think is actionable in this game.

So maybe the over 227 226 and a half minus 110 MGM 115 draft kegs and 227 at ceasers or bet 365 anything to add on I know you played an early cabs number but I assume at 12 and a half.

And I would be hesitant to go further than this the one thing I will say is I thought Mitchell was way more likely to be in tonight than out and I did I misread that I thought I saw that on underdog was he was expected to play rather than questionable.

Um I think that's probably a good look maybe this might be one of the days for the hashtag let him know tweet moves it.

Yeah pay attention remember when that was actually an edge yes so for anyone that doesn't understand this don't have a Mitchell tweets hashtag let him know which is the cabs official hashtag like if you tweet hashtag let him know and you click send.

It will display on Twitter hashtag let him know and then the Cavaliers see automatically fills in because it's like the team branded hashtag so Donovan Mitchell will tweet hashtag let him know on every game where he's playing and then if he's not playing the tweet will not appear it is like a.

So there's been plenty of times when he's been questionable where people start hawking his Twitter and as soon as that that comes the whole market starts to move and it eventually became a priced out edge where the books like we'll close the lines and read just on that tweet where it's not no one's waiting for the official beat writer Chris Fedore or underdog you know aggregator tweet.

To say he's in or out it is based on Donovan Mitchell and you know if you start getting to like you know two hours before tip and there's no hashtag let him know and it's still like you know Donovan Mitchell questionable he's probably on the wrong side of questionable and it starts moving the other way so it was really something that was actionable back in the day it was absolutely an edge to understand that Donovan Mitchell through like hundreds and hundreds of games was so consistent tweeting let him know.

So consistent we made a joke about it.

Yes exactly this sucks that we're getting some anti jazz news come again but we'll get to that in a bit.

Oh this is what happened I saw Donovan Mitchell available to play on Sunday.

Okay so question fairly questionable for today he was coming back from a groin injury so we'll see if he wants to take the second night of a back to back off market seems to be pricing him closer to it and yeah.

Yeah because Maxi is completely out so this market is starting to more pricing him in that out and I do think that you know kind of embarrassing loss to the Celtic yesterday would be an ode towards him playing and this team needing reps before they get to the playoffs with Mitchell and harden and mobility and obviously Jared Allen is out but the rest of those guys shout out you for the Joe Missoula coach of the year stuff last I think it was Friday.

Yes and again this weekend I played phenomenal and I sent it out on Twitter at what like plus four.

You said it out last night too I think it you said it was probably still valuable at plus 200 plus 220 last night let's see what it is now.

Yeah I wonder what it is seeing as you got it.

I'm looking at the coach of the year market going.

I can't we will go on down to 20 still to 20 I still think that's actionable so why I think really at this point anything above plus 150 is probably actionable on Joe Missoula especially because the whole impetus for this capture was saying and I did the same thing with Kade with SGA I did the exact same thing on the show when Kade cutting him was a plus 350 for MVP and I said I think SGA is coming back.

Yeah next Friday against Denver and I also think the pistons have a really hard schedule coming up where they're going to play the Cavs twice they're going to play the spurs they're going to play Miami heat like anything happened in those games like that like the two of them they're missing guys right exactly I was like two of them they're not even going to be favorite in.

And so I was like now's the time to get off of the Kade Cunningham MVP bandwagon and plus and now it's what plus 18 to one those tickets are are dead and SGA it was an action that like minus forget what it was a look it up really quick it was SGA MVP minus 130 is now a minus 400 so that one felt really well time I added on a Wembee last night at 20 to one because I honestly think he might already be the best player in the NBA.

I was seeing comments yesterday about people saying he's the most overrated guy since Kobe I'm like he might be underrated still.

I think he's still underrated so do I do you see the way he finished the half yesterday against the rocket with the step back yes but but the shot fake into a step sideways into hitting the three over the secondary defender closing out on him.

It's just like he opened the game with an eight with scoring the first eight points for the spurs I was texting my family texting with my dad and he's like I'm watching CNN about the like the war whatever's going on in Iran.

It's a war but some people are in terms of using that terminology quite yet and I was like one will make you happy one will make you sad like pick which channel you want to watch and be still your CNN.

And then I'm text again I'm like Wembee wins tap hits hits three on the first possession Wembee grabs rebound goes close to coast for a layup Wembee's up eight four against this the rockets right now.

The first the guy is unbelievable is a walking highlight he also had some ridiculous blocks last night so I listen in a down year for Yoke which is crazy to say but as efficiency is dropped a little bit we'll talk about it during the nuggets game.

Wembee's up Wembee's probably the best player that I've seen the thunder of the best team the spurs of beat them three times but Wembee's the best player that I've watched this year and I watch a lot of basketball but going back to that point I knew the piston schedule was going to be so hard and I knew listen if Tatum comes back and he integrates properly so is the exact reason to get off of Cade as to start to buy in on Missoula and so you know plus 130 now to 400 on on SGA and plus 500 plus 470 down.

To plus 220 those are wildly valuable tickets in the futures market over to 26 and a half here again minus 110 but MGM minus 115 draft kings to 27 flat at Caesars and bet 365 those would all be actionable half unit type of plays for 76ers and caps let's move to the Denver nuggets at the O.K.C. Thunder we now have a six true we have been watching this.

I've been watching this line plummet going down down in an enemy now so the O.K.C. is going down swinging I know the whole I know the whole point at what point do you have to say it's now time to buy O.K.C. for me it's probably right now unless there's some news that has come in that we've missed but this feels like it has to be no news it's only the jazz stuff I will check market ratings and I will check.

In your report real quick market rating has O.K.C. minus 8.6 which is this line opened at seven and a half we obviously do know that there are some injuries for the O.K.C. side most notably heart and steam against the yoke it's team that's going to be slightly important we know Aaron Gordon is back for the Denver nuggets and we know AJ Mitchell is also back for this O.K.C. team.

While Jamal Murray is completely being priced as in now and at home grinning Caruso still questionable so this to me to buy for O.K.C. we checked the liquidity on a betting exchange prior to starting the show and just one cent lower drew than the current trading price was $125,000 of money waiting to be bet on O.K.C.

So it's like if this continues to go down this just has to be a buy point for O.K.C. but we are seeing a lot of books start moving to the six.

I mean I bought this 20 minutes ago at six and a half so

yeah I would say so I don't trust this nugget steam at all right now and I don't think anybody does Gordon hasn't looked right since he's come back we just had Murray turn an ankle again that's why he's questionable tonight sounds like he's going or at least the market is indicating that he's going

they've needed him to be that clutch player all season they have needed his 25 to 30 points a game and if they don't get it there isn't much to do and furthermore we were just talking I think you wanted to talk about Yokech's efficiency since coming back because he was having the most statistically crazy season I'd ever seen in the modern NBA anyways for the first what 40 games until he hits the market

that that snag where he was out for 16 or so I think yep and since coming back he's his efficiency is down to like I think like 50 ish percent from the field and

horrendous from three yeah it's like 25 and and this he was 50% from three a pair also dealing with some wrist injuries to is that okay that would make a lot of sense apparently for for Yokech but yeah the efficiency has been

no levels and then when I watched this first game Denver versus okay see it was the one in Denver there's one SGA came back for I don't really take too much from single game samples at all I care like way more about what happens in market than what happens in a in a one game sample

but it felt like okay you see you could get to whatever they wanted to but they just weren't making shots it was probably I wish I could check the shot quality score I'll pay for a membership to shot quality data and so I could have that information for future references

and not something I overly rely on because shot variance just happens it's hard to predict but you can use it as a indicator of like why might a game have seemed way tighter

and okay see just wasn't making their shots and then they came storming back in the second half because finally they like they were just getting great looks and missing

so I'm not surprised to see the total rising I'm not surprised to see the Denver action coming in I'm sure this is mainly a Jamal Marie thing but this has to be the floor price for Denver at this point

Aaron Gordon did return last game he was one for seven in like 21 or 23 minutes of playing time I assume he plays closer to 25 to 28 minutes in this game returning from the hamstring injuries that is reoccurring you do want to have a slow ramp up back to that

if you this is probably we'll check it in the Bet Sam Pratt market in a bit but I would assume that Aaron Gordon's going to have to take like four or five three pointers tonight

and so if you trust my ball knowledge more than my market knowledge or just as much or in line with or you also trust my ball knowledge

I would be looking at Aaron Gordon over on the threes tonight I think he's going to have to shoot quite a bit if Murray and Yoke each are both kind of struggling and okay sees interior defense I mean even with heart and steam out they just put big Jalen Williams in there and he's on triple double watch immediately

yeah like he's been he's been incredible this incredible

him and McCain just take talking their way. McCain is fantastic again too. I really understand the sentiment from the Philly fans being like why did we sell this guy again especially to okay see I do understand the edge comb thing but I wouldn't have given up on him.

Yeah. Look at the Celtics look how many minutes Maxi's playing exactly like what are we doing if you could bring Maxi down by six minutes a game I think your team is immediately better through the regular season and Maxi and edge comb are both out right now and Philly is struggling coming off the break with how many injuries they're dealing with this would be it this would be what McCain went to and slotted in for for the okay see thunder and end up being so good this would be the exact role.

That Philly was that would have asked him to play all their team up for a few games especially I'd like I understand they didn't think that Paul George was going to be suspended for two months but right at the same time he's on a rookie scale contract still for another two years is he not.

This is the this is the pick from last year yes two years and then you could extend a fifth option because he's the first round pick the Paul George.

Think about that for two seconds like in beat is going to be off the books in two years when you put both him his extension and then you have vj's extension coming right but those can both be cheaper yeah which means when joelle's gone and George is gone all of a sudden you have this essentially the three guard rotation that the Celtics have right now and cap space.

What do we do it.

Darryl more done fuck that one up I will say about the Paul George suspension it is a little bit comical that he gets suspended for PD use with the his response being I was taking it for mental health stuff maybe Paul George just couldn't handle the trolls and he needed to take PDs to play better to weed off the trolls.

Another thing that's a really great take I love that take I just action this six minus 110 at Fandall for half a unit on the O.K.C. Thunder I am in I'm joining Drew who has a six and a half hoping that Drew's number closes flat or even ahead of market back at seven if we get some good news.

I don't know how much I'm betting and in my balance because I got someone over the weekend randomly tweeting at me Drew it was it was like six days ago I know this because it was the start of the hot streak.

He randomly he randomly tweets at me at Fiddlespicks is the most know it all guy who does it even bet $10 on games right not even responding to me just just an outright like like like they were getting tweeted at like your bill Simmons.

Yeah exactly he called out another person in the space who I really am not familiar with at all so I'm going to I don't know that guy's betting habits or what he's betting on or anything so I'll keep that I'll just say was only directed at me but he's like these two guys are the most know it all guys who don't even bet $10 on games that was the that was the day where the night before I made a video going I think Portland trailblazers minus 270 is a good bed as a straight because I think all the grislies players are going to be out.

So I see his tweet because I'm working here at my desk the games are like close to getting started I'm like you know seeing whatever late moves and waiting for opening odds for the next day and I see it like immediately and so I go to my betting portfolio I take a screenshot of that Portland trailblazers money line which had $1,500 on it to win 500 and I'm like come again.

And then he's like and then he's like he's like holy shit respect like wow I didn't know that and I'm like first of all bet size and bet knowledge have zero like next to zero correlation the people who share big bets are doing that for marketing purposes not because they're sharp gamblers necessarily you know occasionally that will but like there's no reason for someone who's like really sharp to share all of their

bets and all of their amounts because like they don't I from my perspective I want zero people pocket watching me and knowing how much I'm betting like everyone asks me how big's my unit I'm like a unit doesn't really exist it's like where's the bet how available is it what time in the market cycle is it what do I think my edge is going to be like at a certain point units don't totally exist in real life when you do this professionally and so like what liquidity is there on exchange is there only 300 then I'll just buy the whole 300 if there's like 100,000

sure maybe I'll go to whatever number for me and not take obviously not take the whole thing and so I was like I'm actually going to block you because this is like you know one of this scummy things to be like chirping at me for bed amount and then start telling me that I was like hey it has nothing to do with each other and I'm like and he's like yet does it absolutely and I'm like okay so I blocked them that person's Twitter right now has tweeting at me

please man unblock me I'm sorry like I didn't mean it and I'm like you fucking little bitch no you're staying blocked and we will be talking about Memphis and Brooklyn

Memphis and Brooklyn true do you have any actionable stuff in this game because I don't I've seen obviously a little bit of

Memphis team a little bit of oversteam you have anything here just impossible to bet these games I find when it comes to a tanky team versus another tanky team in the current NBA standard for tanking

I also know that MPJ is out for the nets which makes me hesitate a bit on this total I did action it last night at this exact number 222 and a half for a half unit over

and that was in large part just because I saw 223 and a half basically everywhere else from the book I was and 224 and a half that came all the way back to 220 and a half and now is settled back in rate at opening

I'm I just skip this one like you don't need to watch this game you don't need to have any money on it just just move on

probably Ben Siraph Dauful Tides Roam Settra Kowitz Scottie Pippa Jr. Taylor Hendrick Michael Porter Jr. Santiago Dama out Diego Jome and also out these teams could play March madness and would probably be like eight point favorites over the best teams

Yeah, they're current with current iteration. Yeah. Yeah, current iteration of these that these are G league teams. They wouldn't be massive favorites to win the whole tournament outright. They'd probably be like even money to win the whole NCAA tournament

Yeah, I think that that would be a mistake from odds makers and I would take that bet every time but

I've been saying this and I've been taking this like I used to think the whole

Oh, a college team might be able to beat the worst NBA team was the dumbest taking the world now that we've gotten to how egregious some of the tanking is and I'm just signing guys who just don't belong in the NBA to 10 days

Josh Gibson exactly but also like be this this this others that you know are young players who like really don't have much of an NBA future at all but they're going to sign them and play the minutes

Achilleen Hayes just returned to the NBA for the Kings like Jesus Christ

Now that that's happening combined with college players getting paid openly because of NIL there's a lot of like late first round picks or early second round picks who are making way more money by staying in college and then could maybe improve their draft position the following year where the players staying in college are better than ever

And they're older and some of the people coming to the NBA are being signed and they're out and they're younger than ever that I actually think that dichotomy has changed where a NCA team might be able to hang with an NBA team and it might just come down to shot very and stuff

I think that's kind of mistaken in that I think basketball knowledge and basketball IQ is just so much higher in the NBA than it is at the college level

I think this is why we see it's been talked about recently where the European players are playing in grown men's leagues

And there's something to be said about basketball IQ in those leagues versus the college guys coming out

You just see like how much college basketball have you watched this year much at all zero yeah I have watched snippets of it here and there

And some of the mistakes I see like the mental mistakes when it comes to just like entry passes or ball movement on the wing when you're on a fast break or how to read the floor just is not there for college teams

And it almost is always there for NBA teams at least to like an extent like you're not going to have Luca Doncic LeBron James levels of court vision on every team in the NBA but it's going to be markedly higher than any college team in my opinion

Did you see the entry pass from brook Lopez when but to him in brook Lopez had the entry pass exchange against the spurs the other night when the clippers were crushing the spurs and I see Ian in the background like losing in mind about it though

Oh nice we have a clip clip let's go you ready for this yeah full screen let's

For some reason it's not work oh there go okay cool it's okay so

Clippers were up 25 in the third quarter and okay and the San Antonio Spurs had a monster comeback and ended up taking the lead there's like

10 to 12 seconds left in this game right now and the clippers are going to get one more look apparently and

The over I was on the over to 23 and a half so I was in the bag at this point so it's like no matter what happens at this point I'm good but I was still watching the game

Watch what happens when Betoom throws the entry pass to brook Lopez honestly for Lopez was one of the highest IQ basketball players and he's like even genius off the court stand for guy

One of the dumbest things I've ever seen in basketball

Oh my goodness

Betoom can't even look him back in his direction

Now they'll have to foul if they can't get a steal

What

Ty Lewis losing his shit on the side that's the play call though because it looks like they're trying to get the ball to

Kauai and they need the angle from Betoom to do it as he's posted up on the

Game and how perplex Betoom looks and how angry Ty Lewis I don't think the play call was

Pass it right bet maybe maybe it was eventually to work it back that direction. That's what Lope. Yeah, yeah clearly because your look I'll share it again

Kauai set up for the entry pass being triple like legitimately triple teams

Castle when be the cell

I think this is you want

So so Lopez is trying to get it back to Betoom so Betoom can get it to you're right. That's exactly what's happening

But I think this is this is a mental error from Betoom more than it is Lopez. I think Lopez was maybe acting a little quick but

Like get your head in the game Betoom come on

Was coach bad at Betoom or Lopez definitely both to some degree

Okay, I quickly want to review some of these comments

Fiddle and call shot my favorite NBA sharps obviously this is a joke because I've been calling out this guy calling our shot

He does these ladder plays where he has

He wants to win 10 bets in a row, but he's stacking together

We'll take Brooklyn that's plus ten all line will take the over two twelve and a half. We're gonna take

Carl Anthony towns over 15 points. We're gonna take

James Harden over four assists and he's just doing these insanely juice

Alt lines in one direction markets and he's putting five of them together. So it's always a five leg parlay

That is like around plus one hundred true. He's trying to roll over and double his bet each day

So when 10 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 80 and so on till he reaches to 10 bets makes it $10,000 or whatever

He's been doing this for a long time. He's yet to yet to do the challenge once

The stacking together five legs of alt is so mind bogglingly dumb

to pay for

Insurance points at

More than premium value at way more than it's actually worth and then to buy into the minus EV multipliers that exists in those things is

so bad

It's no it's no brainer why he hasn't done it winning ten bets in a row is hard as is and if you do get to let's say you do actually win five bets in a row

Drew let's say we make $10 to 20 20 to 40

40 to 80 80 to 160 160 to 320

Let's say we're on we're going for day six and so turned

320 into what seven 40? I don't know if I'm doing my math right

640 640

Obviously, I was I was more talking about the last math and then I did that math wrong if we if we trying to take that and turn it into

640 right

You shouldn't just do that because you won the last five like that's not how bank row management works you don't just

Roll over and double your exposure every single day if you are $10 better and you have a mast

320 and a you know 32 units in in five bets stop what you're doing and

Readjust your bankroll and start scaling appropriately don't just fucking roll it over I get it looks it looks fun

So it does really well on Twitter content

The guy posted a video yesterday of a collage of his recent videos where he's like today's day one today's day one today's day one

Today's day two today's day one because he literally keeps losing

Does Drew make poker content? I do not

The hiccup that Drew's had I know in doing it is um

If he's live streaming his his hand then he can get sniped by other people

No, you put it you put it on a delay and that kind of stuff right there's there's ways around it. I just think

There isn't enough

There's plenty of good content creators out there for poker. There just is there's plenty of

Guys I watch

both for entertainment purposes and for learning purposes

I'll shout out a couple like a

Raise your edge really great for poker tournaments

I don't mind

Carrot corner just for pure coaching. These are all both on YouTube

Jungle man has been putting out some of the more high-level content that I've really enjoyed recently where he talks about concepts and

those kinds of things

And then obviously there's solvers everywhere. So like you can use

God GTO wizard

As a solver you can get a membership there and do that. There's plenty of courses out there

I would even shout out Charlie Carroll for entertainment slash exploitative play

Brad Owen that like there's it's just a satiated market and

I don't really have the time or the energy to go into it to be honest with you. I'd rather just keep playing I've seen Drew play it because

Drew plays like six to eight hands at once

Well, this that's not abnormal though for those like streamers. You'll be playing somewhere between probably four and

Say nine ten tournaments at a time

Sundays can get intense

Specifically with the big tournaments happening on Sundays typically online, but I've also just been

More interested in live play recently as I think the edge there if you can find games that are good

And Cassino's that don't rake pots

Like atrociously bad. That's one of the problems in Ontario right now is the rake rates are really really high not unbeatable, but

It does eat into your profit for sure

We'll get back to the NBA card drew the six

The sixes are being bought back to six and a half for that. Okay, see the six at minus one ten at fandos back to minus

114 at that number so

We are seeing those sixes be the resistant point and get bought back quite a bit

We will move on. It's warriors jazz Drew. I have a

Yaz flutes at

Plus six and a half and on the money line. I know you have a seven and a half because you told me to do it and then I went to the screen

And then I started seeing and it had dried up, but I was like wait. This should actually be like five

She'd be like four and a half to be honest with you. I don't understand so we actioned it

Plus six and a half and on the money line split up a unit two thirds on jazz

HES one third of a unit on jazz money line. However

Callie news that comes in. Yeah, it says I say a collar years in on the most on Ian's report

But we've gotten news during the show that I say a collar is downgraded to

Questionable and so is Kionte George down

To questionable because of an illness that's going around so I'm not too surprised

But yeah, this was a spot where the jazz we're going to win because the warriors are so banged up

You have no porzingus you have no warfare. Do you have no

Steph Curry and so no Jimmy Butler obviously so it was literally draemon air pods and

You know like spencer spencer and and gisanto's shout out to gisanto's forget to get contract good for him

So this was what I felt was a jazz spot seeing

Collier and Kionte George get downgraded to questionable that just sucks. I hope they play

I'm also on the over at what like 228

So this is dropped

Mightily in the total maybe this news was kind of known last night because there were some like overnight and sharp signals on under

And then a little buyback on warriors

This so this is this this sucks to learn

I am on the jazz

HES and money line nothing I could do about it. I mean, maybe it's

Should I hedge and just buy off of it?

Probably I don't think so. I really don't think so. I think both these teams

um

Typically will play with pace. I know jazz specifically have been an over team all season

uh

I also think that this is a weird spot for them

when it comes to this tanking stuff where

they

They are the most egregious team when it comes to tanking because they're a playoff team as built right now

So it's not like the wizards or the nets where they're holding MPJ out and it's like the difference between them winning 22 games and 14 games

This is the difference between winning 42 games and 15 games the way they're

manipulating this tanking stuff

um and at some point

They're just too good

Like they have too much talent to be a

Home dog to a beat up warrior's team that isn't good

um by six and a half points it just

Doesn't make sense. We watched them go to filly the other day and basically win the game and then tank it away

I was on a jazz money line on that one too

Yeah, that I played live so I didn't give it out because I played it live

The jazz totals have been very low lately

Why do you think this is the reason is they've been getting steamed under the last three games

I think it's tanking related. Yeah, I'd think Drew's right in noting that they've been just it's the lineup that they've been putting out there

Um, they've been very fast paced, which is why Drew said they've been an over team

But yeah recently this this has gotten to like shenanigans level

Uh six and a half so the reason why not to bet off of it is because

Let me see where the bet is placed to the reason why not to bet off of it is because generally just a hedge off of it

You're costing yourself

More in hedge uh money than you actually are in

Expected value loss. So if you're just playing into a flat number and it closes at six and a half

I mean, there's no way it closes at six and a half. It's going to be dependent on what happens at the end report

But theoretically speaking let's say it closes at six and a half you have a slightly minus EV ticket

Taking a 52.38 on a line that becomes 50-50

Obviously the total would be very minus EV

But hedging off of it by buying the other side

Except a further loss than the expected value projects. So long term you should just ride the situations

The like the only way to the only reason it would be worth doing it in this case is if I saw the

County George and Collier are out for this game news and I could still grab the edge and the six and a half on the warrior side

And I could say okay now I can action hedge because where this line ends up then warrior ends up being a plus

CLV in a good position that negates some of the bad value

But if you just hedge it you're essentially stacking together two

Minus EV tickets that are both 52.38 at minus 110 but are both 50-50

So I'd rather you'd rather just have one of them then have two of them and live with the results in the long run

Think about that for from a pure math perspective for a second

You're going to pay if it's minus 110 on both sides you're going to pay 10% to hedge

And if it's only a two and a half percent difference in the expected value

You're literally giving the book seven and a half percent to do it

Well said

um

Okay, let's move on to the nicks and the clippers

Uh clippers plus two and a half minus 114

Over under 220 and a half 220 and a half it has been pretty stale of a number

There was books like Fandall here opened at 218 and a half and moved up met up with like draft kings

Which just opened there and has not moved

Circa opened there and has not made a move

So it's 220 and a half feels like

Sharp number there are some 220 one and a half showing up but they are minus 115

Towards the under so a little bit of overhandle that has hit the board

And maybe the number goes up to just get some under action coming in on the card

But it's definitely been a little bit of a clipper spot and a little bit of an over spot in market

We actioned clippers at plus

2.5 minus 110 that is still available bet MGM

Caesars bet 365 all have it there circa has there as well

I would say that's still actionable. This is a second night of a back-to-back for the

uh

Nicks a three games in four. They're also like in a i don't know what

What it is if it's like six and nine as well. It's it's like

They're going to be eight and thirteen come Wednesday according to

The newsletter you guys sent out last night. So then it's seven in eleven. Yeah

So there's seven and they also played and they're on the road and traveling short their last game was against the Lakers yesterday

So no travel component into this one

uh, but they got smoked by the Lakers and

This did not smoke enough either to hold their guys out in the latter quarter of the game

Right like those they were playing their starters till maybe two minutes left

Mitchell Robinson doubtful for this game. John Collins out. So Garland's gonna play math. It's gonna play

uh

Need and house are unfortunately is out for the rest of the season for the Clippers

He's was a young big that was like coming on like a most of the Abate play really good defense

But yeah, this is still a a Clippers buy for me now

And it was a plus 120 on the money line that I action you can get that plus 120 money line at draft kings in bet

365. So uh, I like Clippers plus 210 plus 2.5 minus 110 and money line plus 120

I think Drew is in lockstep with me there. Yep

Shall we discuss some quiet Leonard before we do bet stamp?

Um

Yeah, let's do that. Let's do that

So Pobletori does a live show. Where was he? Was it like the Sloan conference? I was gonna say of Sloan conference

Okay

Where he's on the panel with the two people that he's consistently done the show with

And you know in in classic Pobletori fashion which drives me a little bit not see

It's like very performance-based even though it's such good. Yeah journalism and uh

podcasting and like a documentary of what's happening in real time

You know a lot of showmanship where he's like fellas. I taped under your chair and envelope

Can you grab the envelope and then the one of the guys is like make sure you don't bend with your ass facing the crowd

Uh, cuz we're on camera. There's people watching this and all the stuff anyways

Uh

This is like a six-minute clip that gets circled around and you could choose to watch that or the full episode

Where they have a government document from a whistleblower who wrote in the testimony

That was reason why aspiration was investigated by the federal government

um

For some fraud stuff and the founders were being investigated and in that document it literally has cap circumvention for quiet Leonard

So like as we've been looking for the smoking gun. This is as close to it as you can get

That people were within the company were saying that this was being used for

Cap circumvention for quiet Leonard as early as 2023 and that was literally in writing to the federal government

Before um any of this became public

So it's like what have we been looking for have been looking for an email if we've been looking for something that says it

There's someone within aspiration that outwardly said it

To the federal government the problem that the NBA has

Has had in investigating this is that they have very limited like the NBA can't subpoena documents from the federal government as they investigate this

They have like a limited scope of what they have access to

Uh

Through the clippers and and it's all collectively bargained between the teams but public or a presenting this true

Then puts it in the public sentiment where now the investigators can go look at it

So a lot of this time poplatory has been uncovering stuff

um

That is helping in aiding the investigation

He's obviously incentivized for there to be a big punishment because it would help his journalism career

So he definitely wants some hammer to come down on the clippers

Any thoughts on on the documents where this is at now and then we'll discuss what the potential ramifications seem to be whispering about throughout the leak

It

It does seem

That

It would not surprise me if the NBA finds nothing

I'm doing air quotes for those listening

Uh

The point that spoke to me the most was the fact that

The investigation is being done by the NBA

And the NBA is the owners

Which means and Steve Balmer being the richest and likely most powerful

Single owner right now

Obviously the Lakers just got sold but they got sold to a conglomerate the same conglomerate that has the Dodgers etc

um

And I think Pablo made the point

That with the aspirations of the NBA

And expansion overseas Seattle Vegas those things

um

Punishing Balmer right now

Given how much money he has available likely to

Help transition into this new era of maybe 32 teams maybe 33

It would benefit silver and the league

For them not to punish Balmer that hard and have him be in a spot where he might want to hold a grudge or might want to lord

The fact that he has the true power to do some of these expansion moves

um

In his hands or at least a lot of the power to do so um

I'm very concerned

That what might end up happening is NBA finds

There may have been wrongdoing, but it's not beyond a reasonable doubt etc

blah blah blah

And then when stuff

In federal at the federal level goes nuts and they find potentially

Real issues with aspiration

themselves and

People start having to

Testify under oath

that

The investigation will then be looked upon as a sham and this situation just could become a PR like it's already a PR nightmare

For the NBA

But it could get worse if they don't do their due diligence

Uh about this and I think the point that was

Clearist about this was

Pablo saying that

Multiple aspiration employees that he spoke with

Said the NBA asked them a lot of questions, but never asked them about Steve Balmer and his involvement specifically

Which is essentially

He's the guy in charge of this and has to be the guy who is held responsible if

What happened or what we all think happened happened and the fact that

The NBA's investigators aren't

Really going into detail about him specifically with their witnesses

Is pretty telling

So I think the punishment that comes down is going to be way more to I agree with what you said

And I think the punishment that comes down is going to be way more direct at Kauai

Than Balmer. I think that's a mistake. He I don't think

Kauai would be surprised if Kauai gets his contract avoided and he's off the clippers

That would

That would set a precedent

For the league that I think would be untenable and I would imagine that as soon as if that is what happens the second it happens

Kauai counter sews

For his entire maybe but but I think and then this just gets kicked down the road another year and a half two years

And then he just retires if that ends up happening in two years from now

um

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the it's a contract void and Kauai like suspended for like a year because it does really seem like

This is something that the Kauai camp asked for this is what so being spoken about when I listen to like low

Or siblings or any of them. They're like it seems like Kauai the contract might get avoided

That's the common thing that and be I don't have

Access to NBA insiders, but that's apparently what's being spoken about is Kauai's contract being avoided

Maybe they'll probably be some penalties director at clippers, too

But that's a clippers penalty, too to take away their best player

But it does seem like Kauai's camp asked for this because he asked for Toronto for this

He asked for other teams for similar things situations and it's his camp consistently asking

For all these side agreements to to to be made happen. So I think it's being a directive from his camp

This seems real that like I

You're supposed to ask

This is a negotiation

If you're told that's not in the within the rules and you keep asking like he's asked multiple teams

Okay, he's uncle not in a lot of trouble because of what he asked the raptors and he's like

You know, he was like no longer allowed to be technically part of Kauai's representation at all

But then he like is some he's adjacent to it now

But there's there was like the league changed all of its ancient rules

And yeah, you need to be board certified through the league office now to represent the player because of uncle Dennis asking the raptors things

And so I guess so but this is also

Like we're just gonna make Kauai the fall guy for stuff that's been happening in the league for the last 25 years

I don't know if it's I don't know how I'm certainly this is the most egregious don't get me wrong right right and like he took a sub

Like Kauai right now is on a sub max deal

Apparently you after in the aspiration

Money getting what I would have been the max

That's but but that's clippers that's not quite both right

I think Kauai's like

I want a max deal and the clippers are like you're going to get a max deal

But we want to save the cap space. So here's how we're going to give you said max deal

Here's how we're going to circumvent the cat

That is not on Kauai

Kauai's just the man asking for the contract the clippers are the ones who have to adhere to the rules of actually giving the contract in my opinion

Yeah, that's probably not in my opinion probably in the letter of the law

Yeah, we will see what happens. It's it's it's it's it's reached a fever pitch is what I'll say let's do best yeah props

And then let's get on out of here. We'll go book by book sorting by plus EV props in the market remember these are

The reason why they are marked as plus EV is because they are

The bet stamp screen is taking the market for these numbers. It is devigging into a true line if certain things are at

Different numbers. It is using the value and weight of whatever statistic is there and what the weight of that number is

And it's putting them into a true odds

Which is has no vague so if it's minus one tens of both sides it's no vague at plus one hundred

Each way and so there's no bookie tax and then it still finds things that are better in market than a devig true odds line

So we'll go fan duel has gg Jackson over one and a half blocks pat Spencer one and a half steals

I'm just looking to see if anything

Overly sticks out to me nothing crazy here at at fandal um

Maybe a Kyle filipowski play because that's a that's at that's at

65 65 um

If you're not limited on pro

Yeah, feel free if you have fandal as one of your outs feel free to pause the screen look for yourself and see if you want any of these

Dominic Barlow are the double double 27 to one might be an interesting long shot to take because of how

Banked up and injured the filled out via 76 are in that Jared Allen might be out for the Cleveland Cavaliers

That might be a good spot

He's been playing very well the season. They extended him. He gave him a two way to a real NBA contract

That was part of the reason to actually get off of McCain was to hold the roster roster spot for for Barlow and to be able to have

Resigned Quentin Grimes

Ace Bailey under on the points technically it's an edge in market, but I don't like that

I think fandals I mean draft Kings is making them move towards the over

Because Ace Bailey we've got a lot of usage if those other guys sit callie and Georgia out. Yeah, exactly

Jaylen Wells double double that interest me. He's going to take over so much usage for the

Memphis team and they have no bigs if

Lopez double E.D. Clark are all out

Said again, Drew. Lopez double double is kind of intriguing given that they don't have any bigs

And he's gonna have Mitchell Robinson missing as well

Um, it's a decent long shot. He only played 12 minutes last game

But that was because it was the second night of a back-to-back after the spurs where he played 34

So he just wasn't playing a lot because of the age

So yeah, I actually do think that's a that's a valuable long shot, right?

He's also not a bad matchup for cat specifically

Which is who New York is going to be playing all night. So that's a that's a pretty good one. Jaylen Wells steals his interest in

Treating to plus to to 11

Caesar's usually has nothing because they charge so much for their damn props

Mm-hmm. This is a 38 cents split right here

It's

It's just egregious

Um that MGM Aaron Gordon over on the rebounds and assists

I do want to check on the Aaron Gordon over on threes while we are here. I will do that after we go through this

OG over rebounds and assists. I actually kind of like both of those lines

um

Ace Bailey overs. I don't mind any of those because of the usage

I think that at minus 175 minus 170 over one half assists is probably a pretty good line as well

damn bona to have

Ten points is a plus 190 similar to Barlow filling in as a big

For older points rebounds assists as well

15 and a half if we think Mitchell might miss

Someone actually commented 14 and an earlier so which is obviously a good bet. I think that was points assists

I don't know if that was if I'm right or wrong about that. I'll look back through while you're doing this

Okay

And now bet 365 comment if you want us to start including any other sportsbook in in here

Caruso under on rebounds. Yeah, that's somewhat interesting

I don't mind that if he's questionable he might play a little less especially with a j michael back

I don't mind that look at all

Towns over on his on his points plus rebounds e and wrote this one up for the newsletter last night

He likes it 29 and a half uh minus 115. I think that is a a good line too knowing how the

There's no bigs for the Clippers and

Towns is probably going to be without Mitchell Robinson tonight

That's a pretty good look the whole market at 31 and a half that's that's probably pretty strong

Evan mobility look as well in that same angle with and beat out with Jared Allen out. There's a lot of wiggle room for

Mobley to dominate on some stats of 26 and a half points plus rebounds is probably pretty good

If that's dvig did still plus ev according to market that's that should be pretty strong

Let's go over some of the comments

That came in

Cat over 12 and a half rebounds. Let's see

That's a bit high

That's my that's my snap reaction is that's a bit high especially at minus 130

Um

Yeah, I mean there's a minus 110 there's a minus 115 there's there's a lot less than minus 130

So if minus 130 is your best price I wouldn't pay for that because there's just if you can get the minus 110

it is

Minus 5% ev according to market

Is a minus 105 at that chris bookmaker minus 105

Uh, so if you can get best odds and you like it sure um doesn't have a market edged

Um like the points plus rebounds angle better

Aaron Gordon on three pointers

True, we have an edge

Ball knowledge meets market angle

Aaron Gordon one and a half threes. I'm going to be adding that to my bets as soon as we wrap up the show

Uh, and I'm going to make two threes tonight plus 130. I like the plus 125 at draft gangs. I would play the plus 115 at Caesar's too

Um, fine with any of those

He's gonna have to shoot

Plus 120 at fanatics as well

He's gonna have to shoot for this team tonight. Uh, yeah, I think you're right

Let's see anything else

Uh, the Dennis Charter was PA uh, do the PRA um

Yeah, at 15 and a half that's the one you don't have to do that one instead just slightly more value in the line

Fids, I know this isn't your type of handicapping but it feels like one of those okc games

They remind everyone who's the big dog so the even being on okc the one pushback that I want to give here to um

filetman stay spanky

is

That if these guys are truly questionable okc's gonna do the right thing because I saw it it was also included uh

I don't see cruiser chats sitting they know the nuggets are a thorn and it's likely a rivalry

I don't think the okc cares about the rivalry stuff like I think if chat should sit and it's like truly questionable

I or caruso same thing. I think they will sit those guys

Uh, they are seeing the spurs catch up to them so more of going for the one seed uh, but they this

I hope for hopefully chat plays because he's he's a

A must have

Okay, that'll do it for us today. Thank you to everyone for watching. Thank you to Drew uh for joining me today

Uh, oh schedule change for this week

And I think moving forward. I'm gonna be doing Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday shows and on Fridays

I'm going to be joining Jay money

So it just didn't make sense the reason why me and Jay kind of got off track a little bit was he just didn't

A lot of times like life stuff and then it also didn't make sense for me to do my show and then immediately go

Jump on his and pretty much give the same takes um

So I will be joining Jay on Fridays uh, he's gonna be here with me on this Wednesday and um

We're gonna do Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and I think that's gonna remain the plan moving forward

um

So that we can do some shows together because uh, definitely like doing shows with Jay as well

Obviously I keep my guests very limited uh, I think Drew and Jay

Have been the only guest all season and Jay's been here once, but I've done Jay show quite a bit um

I think it's important as I personally in the podcast that I listen to I don't like when they bring in a random guest

And it like throws off a lot of like you're just listening to this new person and it's hard to trust especially in the

Gambling sense

Like Drew's been here for like two or two and a half seasons with me

Um me and Jay have done shows for two and a half three seasons as well through action and then last year doing it every week

Um, and then this year doing a bunch

So I really like to keep the the core the core

Um, so we'll be doing Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday here and then I'll be doing Fridays with Jay

Moving forward and that should last until the end of the regular season

And then we will look at the um playoff schedule and the WNBA schedule just whatever makes the most sense

uh

Seven bets on today's card

And I'm going to be adding an eighth right after this

Uh, Philadelphia at Cleveland over two 25 and a half at two twenty six and a half minus one ten still felt it was actionable

Okay, you see minus six we gave that out during the show there was quite a few places available

It's all been bet back to six and a half right now

Jazz plus six and a half jazz money line plus two twenty like considering that's still the flat line with Kionte George

And Isaiah Collier downgraded to questionable um

It means it was a strong bet in real time because I was going to clearly be on the right side now there

hangs in the balance of that uncertainty

Golden State and Utah over to 28 just a bad ticket um clearly on the wrong side there with that one being bet towards the under even

Beyond the news that was started to get bet against me L.A. Clippers plus two and a half and plus one twenty

120 on the money line are also still available in market that is going to be it for today

Uh, like I said, thank you to you guys for listening. I understand there's breaking news breaking news

What heat?

Miami heat are receiving a

2026 second-round pick from the Hornets as additional compensation for the Taylor Rose Eard trade

Just released nine minutes ago

Because apparently the um

The Hornets kind of knew he was being investigated and I don't think the heat totally do

Yeah

That's interesting coming back

Thanks for throwing that in there all right that'll that'll wrap us up. We'll talk about that tomorrow

I'll read into exactly what's going on there um

We'll be back tomorrow. I appreciate everyone's time because I know there's um

A lot of choices that you guys can do to to spend an hour

So if you're spending it here with me, it's not lost drop a like on the stream share it with a friend

Subscribe to the channel if you're not already and we'll see you tomorrow until then peace out