4-16-26 Sloan with joe Supan

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3:06There are plans for hundreds of thousands of more satellites in outer space. One country, one country alone, it wants to put up over 300,000 satellites. I said three at Rwanda wants to put up three, yeah, well over 330,000 satellites Rwanda for God's sake. That's a Rwanda. What do we want to do? What did the G12 want to do? We're looking at a million or more satellites in a relatively short period of time. You go, okay, well, what's the problem with that? Well, it could affect everything from your phone signal to, well, I'm even the area you breathe. In the, in the space, we just launched Artemis too. The space race is not just a, I guess from outer space, a visual nuisance, but it also could be a threat to our way of life, possibly anyway. I don't want to say the sky is falling, but it might be with all the space junk that's going to come down. Joe Supan is on it. He has written an exhaustive piece for CNET. He's their broad, broad band experts, I should say. And joins the show now. Joe, welcome back.

4:06I've been. I'm good. Thanks for having me. Yeah. There's a lot to unpack here. And I don't want to be like, oh, my God, this is going to destroy the planet because I'm sure there's people that are saying that. We'll get that in a little bit. But you know, once a year, we go visit our friends down in South Florida. And every night, I want to send like at least a few nights a week, you see the glow of a rocket in the sky. And what's that? It's Elon Musk launching another rocket with more satellites on it. So we have what, 15,000 orbit right now. And since 2019, the numbers jumped from 2,000 over 15,000, Musk's SpaceX owns more than 10,000 of them. So let's start with that. We have the obvious guy in our backyard. Elon Musk spearheading the rise and what this looks like. We have all these satellites that are going up and continually going up. They only have a certain amount of time before they start falling back down. So you started in this whole thing started with you an astronomer sitting down in stargazing and what you're looking at in stars, but satellites. Did that give you perspective on what we're talking about here? Yeah, absolutely.

5:08It's been a while since I've been stargazing and it is really clarifying when you look up at the sky and actually kind of focus, relax your eyes a little bit. How many satellites you see stricken across? It's something. Oh, walking through it. So SpaceX landed the Falcon 9 in 2015. And that really was the inflection point for everything to follow. Yeah, because they really made these use of reusable rockets, like economically feasible. And so to watch these kind of broadband satellites that start like uses, you really need a lot of them for global coverage. So all of a sudden, once they could start reusing the Falcon 9, it really became a money maker. And that's why in South 40, you see it all the time, but that's just Musk and this is being replicated all over the globe right now as we speak. Here in Ohio, and I'm sure where you are, we have the war over data centers. No one wants them in their backyard. World areas are pushing back. We're instituting bands and pump the brakes because of what they mean for the plane, for the environment, for us, near us, the water supply, electricity.

6:09It's a real concern. And so now the thinking is, well, instead of here on Terra firmer, instead on Earth, what if we put them up there? And so we're talking about a million or more orbital data centers. Is that a real game plan because we don't want them on Earth. So we'll just make it space problem. Yeah, most of the astrophysicists I talked to kind of raised their eyebrows with that one. They think that million numbers are pretty high, but the concept itself is feasible, just a matter of if they can get that many up there. And the thing is, you know, our space is vast, obviously, and there's a lot more space up there. But you know, you start to get into coordination problems because how long is it before these things start running into each other? I mean, does that happen now? We've got so many things flying around. The orbits have to be coordinated with every other country and every other private entity putting it out there. Is that a catastrophe waiting to happen? Well, they're really good at maneuvering around each other. And right now it's mostly just SpaceX.

7:09So they're only moving around their own satellites. It's going to be more difficult when you're trying to coordinate across different countries and companies. But I would say the bigger issue is all the space debris running into some of those satellites because that stuff can't maneuver and there's a lot more of it. And the more of these you put up, the more space debris there will be in the future then. Is that the issue? Yeah, that's really the concern. That's kind of the doom-based scenario I'm worried about. It's called the Kessler syndrome where one piece of space debris could hit a satellite that would create many more pieces of space debris and it would just be a kind of cascading effect. Like a domino effect. So it's called the Kessler syndrome and it sounds like a movie plot. What does it look like when it hits the movie? Yeah. Well, yeah, the movie gravity if you ever see that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's right. I thought so. So what happens? That's a movie. But what happens in real life if that occurred? If we had that Kessler effect, the domino effect. Yeah, it would be very, it would be much slower. It wouldn't happen dramatically like that in the course of an hour.

8:12It would just be all of a sudden now there's a thousand new fragments and this has happened before. I mean, there's an anti-satellite test that have created this stuff, but it would just happen slowly where more and more debris gets added, satellites can't really operate in a certain altitude and then after 10 years, maybe spaces in optimal for everyone. Wow. So it would be that for the fact because if it pushes the satellite slightly off orbit a piece of debris, that changes the calculus for everything because then that becomes an unstable object that might bump into another satellite and so it goes. That's what we're talking about. Yeah, exactly. Do we have to worry about space junk Joe coming down when the satellites die, re-anntering and hitting us on the head? I know we had a near miss somewhere on the planet. I forget where it was or a piece of a satellite when crashing through a school of all things. Yeah. Yeah. I was surprised when I started researching this how often this actually happens. NASA has said a piece of space debris falls to the ground every single day for the past

9:1360 years. So that's not even accounting for the rise in satellites, but they try to land them in the ocean and their remote areas, so we don't hear about most of them. But last year alone, I found like six or seven instances of them falling near humans. So it's a concern for space floods that there have been a lot of instances around Florida actually where they've had to close space airway because of rocket debris falling. So it does happen and then it'll only happen more in the future. Are we working on a plan, Joe, to police pay and that is like, I don't know, cast some sort of giant magic net and get all the debris and clean it up that way. Like have rump geego up there with a space garbage truck and load everything in. I mean, is someone working that problem and how impossible is that? Yeah, there are some startups out there who are trying to do like the more space vacuum cleaner stuff. But the problem is like who's going to pay for it? It's very expensive and no one really wants to take that out right now.

10:16Yeah, probably at some point there will be, they'll have to out of expediency and there'll be a, you know, the satellite companies who launch when you have to pay a certain fee for putting it up there. I'm sure that that day is coming because there's space trash out there all the way. What are the odds of a piece of space debris right now? Let's say over the next 10 years that it actually kills somebody pretty low. I, there was a study I saw that had this number. I think it was maybe one in a thousand. It's, I think it was, it was higher that it would one would crash into a piece of aircraft actually. I think so. They are low, they are low odds, but they're, I mean, still concerning. Yeah. We would get increased the more satellites you put up. Joe Supant here from CNET, he's our brother and expert. He did a deep dive into the satellite space race and we want information. We got the device in our hand and we want the information now and quickly and there's more demand coming for that with AI and other talking about taking the data centers that we don't want here in Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana and putting them well up there and outer

11:20space and making the data centers is satellite based, which sounds like it solves a problem. But right now we have over 15,000 satellites, just a few years ago. That was 700. We've gone to 15,000 and with other countries getting in the game, we're talking more than a million satellites in the near future that could be orbiting our planet. That might affect our phones, it could also affect our climate too. How does climate fit into this thing? Yeah. Climate is kind of the biggest concern that I think most scientists have. When these satellites are de-orbited, they burn back up in the atmosphere after about five years and they leave behind all these kind of aluminum and metal particles in the stratosphere. And we really don't know what the effect will be yet. A lot of people think it'll, you know, create holes in the ozone or reopen the existing ones. It could accelerate climate change, but it's a pedal off theoretical at this point. We just don't know what dumping so much metal in the sky will actually do.

12:20And then of course that will gin up a whole bunch of fears and two that we've got to stop this because we're ruining the planet in different ways. And you know, the cry when I was younger was, of course, the hole in the ozone layer, which we've repaired now. And so I don't know if there's a solution for this, but I guess it makes sense that the aluminum that's stuffed its floating around is more reflective and does that, is that enough to cause another hole in the ozone? I don't know. It seems like it's a stretch for me, but again, we got all the stuff floating 30 miles above our heads. We don't see it. We just don't assume it's there, but it is. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. And they're pretty big objects. They're hundreds of pounds, so thousands of them burn up in the atmosphere every year. That is going to have some effect. All right. So Elon Musk and Starlink, for example, it's self-policing right now. They're handling them. So now you've got countries, I mentioned China, Amazon, in Rwanda, of all places in Rwanda applied for over 330,000 satellites in Rwanda's doing that. It means everybody's doing that.

13:21At some point, do they not care about, do they not care as much as maybe Elon Musk does about policing the skies and just launching things and have no way to control them? Are we looking at that? And there's no regulation for this either, I wouldn't think. Yeah. There's a UN organization that is theoretically regulating all this. They assign airspace to different satellites. But what we've really seen is these countries will apply for so many satellites and just try to kind of hold their place in line. So it's not necessarily a guarantee that all of those will go up. But yeah, they are supposed to kind of set the ground rules and then other countries, our governments are supposed to apply them to whatever companies are operating in their borders. You don't give me a lot of faith that the UN has charged a policing anything. They're really not good at that. They're not good. That's what scares me about it. They have no juice. I know that we threaten retaliation against Europe because they wanted more safety regulations in place. So there's a governmental battle going on.

14:21If that's true, I mean, you look at Starlink and how they supplied essentially communications to the Ukrainian army, Russia is reportedly developing missiles to destroy Starlink satellites. That'd create more. So when the war goes from here inside the globe to outside into space, what does that mean for the rest of the satellites up there? If one nation starts blowing up satellites from another country, then what happens? Yeah, that's a really scary scenario. A huge amount of the debris that's already up there was created by countries blowing up their own default satellites. So if Russia decided to blow up a Starlink satellite and created debris cloud to make damage to their operations in Ukraine, that would have a horrible effect for the rest of the satellite industry. I mean, that alone might make it impossible to operate in that altitude. I know that our government administration, particularly the chair of the FCC, really wants the million data centers in space is supposed to hear on ground.

15:25Are we grasping that the risk involved with this? Because anything you do, there's a certain risk involved. You drink water. You have an aspirin. There's risk involved with that. You start putting data centers in outer space and you go from 700 to 15,000 to a million satellites, there's going to be a, there's going to be some problems with that. And some of them are seen and probably many are unforeseen. Do we not fully grasp the risk in the downside here? Yeah, I don't know what cars thinking about that. They're still processing the application. So it hasn't really gotten the stamp of approval and it's pretty light on details. It just says a million. There's not really a plan or timeline on how they would get them up there. But I think he's generally had a pretty light hand regulating Starlink. I think he's probably going to approve of it. Yeah. I mean, you can hear it all the way or 700, just a few years ago, and I've been over a million relatively soon as such a short time satellites out there. But give me some context of just how big space is and how far apart because you know, if

16:26you look at a map and they have these websites, you can actually see all the satellites in action where they are, where they're moving, who owns them, it's actually truly cool. But it looks so crowded up there. Is it, is it really? It's because we're looking at on a desk that's kind of like looking at a map and a piece of paper. The Hawaii looks like it's five minutes off the coast of California and it's, you know, it's an eight hour flight. So give me some context and just how much room there is out there. Yeah. It's huge. I mean, there are satellites at 22,000 miles and then there are satellites like Starlink that are more at like the thousand and two thousand levels. So there is plenty of room to operate out there. It's just, it's maybe not as much as we think with all the, there's as many as much room as there is. There's also just a ton of objects that we track objects the size of softballs or larger, but there's millions of objects that are smaller than that. And many of them could completely demonstrate a satellite.

17:28So there's beading around there at thousands of miles an hour. I mean, even a tiny object can do a lot of damage. Rick, Rick, have it. Well, and it makes sense too, because we launched this stuff. It doesn't completely disintegrate. It breaks up, but not everything reenters the atmosphere and is destroyed or swallowed up by fire or crashes into the ocean. Some of it does land, hit land, but also some of it just remains up there floating around that could be a danger to other objects. And maybe the technology comes along where they can self see, I mean, is that there now that do we mechanically have to move these satellites and change their orbits? Oh, yeah, they maneuver millions of times every year. I mean, they're very good at that, but to some people say that's part of the problem. If they're maneuvering so much, how do other companies know where their satellites are going to be? How do they communicate with each other? There's really no like international protocol that governs that. How long we hit before we get a million satellites? How long? I mean, man, I would say 20, 50 or later, and I would probably go later than that.

18:33That seems like a huge stress to me. But yeah, you never know that we're on an exponential curve right now, so it could rise pretty rapidly. Yeah, well, the country's getting on board. Yeah. I mean, it's not anything to worry about. I don't think, but it is, it's interesting conversation wise and putting the data centers in out of space. It seems like it solves a problem here, but are we making a different problem? We won't know for another hundred years, Joseph Pan is over at a scene at, he's the broadband expert over there, checks in from time to time and this stuff that makes you go, huh, Joe, all the best. Thanks again. Appreciate it. Yeah. Thanks, Scott. Yeah, check out the article. It's rather lengthy, but it's really interesting if you're in this, you know, scientist, scientisty kind of stuff. Yeah, I don't know. We're in about the environment right now. Let's see how it plays out for you. But, you know, stuff all out of the sky. Just scare the hell out of you to some degree anyway. No one's been hit. Yeah, it's going to take one person to get smoked. And then that's when the politicians and there'll be rules and regulations and fighting and there'll always be more material tomorrow to talk about in the show here, 700 WLW. Forget whatever plans you have this weekend because you're staying at home and playing

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