(3/8/26): Scream 7, The Bride, Oscars predictions

0:00Welcome to light trees and news everyone, pop culture politics and a sprinkle of trees in. I'm your host Alison Killkenny today joined by Meredith. Oh, hi. Hello. How are things in Florida? Uh, madness. The usual sort of anxiety about the end of the world. I went to the store this morning, just before we started recording to pick up a few things that I desperately needed. And I felt like I was in a war zone. And it was, it was just like, wow, we are such a failed state. Absolutely. I

1:01think the main, the important thing is even though we are like actively entering world war three, I think it's really important that most people appear to be using their energy to fight about the Oscars online. I feel like that's good and healthy. Well, I think that now more than ever, we need a distraction. And so we should all argue about which of the incredibly stressful movies that have been nominated for all of these major awards is going to win. Because as I was looking at the ballot that we were using to kind of do our predictions, I kept thinking there is not a single, gentle film in any of these categories. Yeah, it's very funny that I feel like train dreams is the most gentle and spoiler alert. His whole family dies in a fire, everybody. And that's like the least stressful. Right. It's, it's not stressful in an intense way. It's just sort

2:02of existentially about whether or not you absorb and process loss or you let yourself live forever frozen in time. And you know, there's, I, it's a, that's pretty stressful to me to think about. It is actually quite stressful. But in comparison to the other films, I maybe sentimental value is that the least stressful film, but that's even about like familial trauma and suicidal ideation. So I feel like they're all pretty stressful. Probably a reflection of our times or culture the moment we're living in as art so oftentimes is. And it just happens to be a little bit more. I'm so deeply grateful this season is almost over. They absolutely must move the Oscars up a month. Everyone is legally insane now. People are turning scandals from nothing like it really is bizarre to see people get mad at Jesse Buckley for saying she doesn't like cats or Timothy

3:07Chalamet for acknowledging that ballet and opera attendance rates have gone down. I'm like, this passes as a scandal in 2026. Now, and to be fair, I agree with Jesse Buckley, but recognize that it was a bit much to to admit in an interview that she made her husband get rid of his cats. And Timmy came off pretty snotty. However, both of them should be allowed to say these things because that's what actors are supposed to do. Like, do I really didn't even want to get into this, but for both of them. For both of them, right? Like I am an animal person in general. I really love cats. I don't give a shit about the Jesse Buckley comment. I think everyone's being over dramatic about it. And the Xiaomi thing, I'm like, y'all, if you know anything about his history with his sister and his mom, both being ballet dancers, he shouts out baritone cough in terms of like choreographing Marty's before. Like, this man does not hate ballet and opera. And I feel

4:11like these attacks, whether they're organized or informal about any of the actors involved, because there were some shady stuff with the other actors too going on. I'm just like, it feels like bad intentions. And I think what the Oscars should be about is the best performances. And although it's other noise, this bullshit going on, it's really toxic. And it makes the season very unpleasant to experience. It's really bad guys. Like go outside. Why are you actually upset Jesse Buckley doesn't like cats? Like go outside. Maybe call it relative. You haven't spoken two in a while. And then suddenly like, okay, we're now, you know, front facing camera, eyesing the Oscars, even more than they already were during the Weinstein era, where suddenly all of these elements are being forced to become part of this. And it's really annoying. Like,

5:12also if we were going out, the people that had that, yeah, I need to be so for real right now. Like whether I'm talking about myself, I'm talking about you, I'm talking about everybody listening right now. When's the fucking last time you went to the opera? Like be real with me right now. Like I know it's one of those art forms that we feel like we need to endlessly defend because it's considered like the pinnacle of art. But like if you look at the actual numbers, they've been rapidly declining since before COVID. So you can't even blame COVID. So I'm like, that's why I'm like, this feels like bad intentions because he wasn't saying that those art forms don't have value. He's just acknowledging like Leo during his press tour said nobody goes to jazz clubs anymore. Nobody fucking attacked Leo. But it's true. It's true. Like you have to acknowledge reality because movie theaters are currently experiencing a decline in attendance, too, right? AMC said last year 10% decline in attendance rates. You have to acknowledge reality. People aren't going to experience these live forms of art anymore if you can call a movie a live

6:12form of art. But like it's just true that people aren't going out as much. And it's so bizarre to see, oh, my favorite part is now like the Met sending out coupons where they're like 15% off with Code Chalamet. And I'm like, you're acknowledging that no one wants to go. So you have to offer a 15% discount. Also, what are you doing? A 15% discount is actually going to do that much. Like the ticket is still expensive. And there's it's all very important. I think it's important that we encourage people to experience art forms. I think one of the things that Zohran promised about trying to make things like Broadway more accessible to people is great. But it's not, you know, the idea we're not investing in arts and the problem isn't and shouldn't be put onto the artists specifically or the people who are choosing how to spend

7:14their money in terms of what they're consuming or what they're and what they're trying to appreciate because there are so many other factors at play. Like everybody's weird. The people who have decided that we need to monetize and gamify the entire single form of culture and art is really, really it's the it's the elephants. It's Zaslav. It's those assholes that have decided to make everything slop. Not the people who are working within this system and are raised in it and, you know, stewing in it, you know. Yeah, I mean the accessibility thing is like a valid, I think if anything comes out of the stupid, stupid distraction, it's that we talk about accessibility in the arts because like the last time I went to an opera, which was now years ago, I was the youngest person by about 30 years and the people in attendance were very, very wealthy.

8:15I went because I won the lottery. The season ticket holders are very, very wealthy people and the same goes for ballet too. And I'm sorry the people who were like, I just went to the ballet last year. I'm like, imagine if you said I went to the movies last year, like that would be a disaster for the film industry. Like attendance rates are not good. And I think refusing to acknowledge that does more harm than good. Like we can't acknowledge that people don't go to the ballet as much. It's fucking ridiculous. I mean, it'll be more of a wake up call. Sorry, go ahead. It just kills me in the season that like the not to get too off track and we'll get to our predictions in a second. But the Met has had serious, serious sex scandals like like a conductor assaulting children and radio silence. And this is the scandal that they're like, oh, we're going to put out a mailer about this. I'm like, y'all can go fuck yourself. Like it really is disgusting.

9:16Yeah. Well, and another, why is it that we had to, we have to treat it entirely as Timothy Shalamet being an ungrateful zillennial and or Gen Z or whatever and not that he recognizes that cinema is in danger of going the exact same way. Exactly. That was the entire point he was made. Of course, nobody watches the full clip because it's the internet. Nobody like we're all guilty of just reading the headline and not reading the article, right? But if you watch the full clip, it's exactly the point he's making. He's saying, I'm afraid that I'm participating in an art form that is also on the decline like ballet, like opera. And then he makes like kind of an off cuff remark about like his value going down 15 cents, which is a remark on how the studio system works, right? Like how you were just talking about the polymarket system of it all, right? So he's making a very gallows

10:17humor joke that if like you understand the the the frequency of the humor, you get it. But oh my god, like here's a thing. You know how we're always talking about we don't have interesting celebrities anymore. We don't have interesting movie stars. All of the answers are really canned and carefully polished and all of the edges are sanded off. This is why. So everybody who's like Leonardo DiCaprio is so fucking boring in interviews. Guess what? He used to not be boring in interviews and then he got hammered so much by the media, by his fans, that now he just gives like very trait recycled answers. In fact, the most interesting interview he had recently was with Jennifer Lawrence because she kept pushing him out of his comfort zone. So he was forced to like say things that he normally wouldn't say. And it got interesting again. I don't know why we want everyone to be so obedient to the point where they don't have an interesting thought anymore.

11:17Well, and that's another thing that goes to ways where we have this internet where you get death threats for being portrayed badly by a monster like Ryan Murphy as Darryl Hanna has been experiencing because her time dating John F. Kennedy Jr. has been portrayed in a very negative incredibly false like untrue light. So you're either being hammered by people who are hiding behind anonymity on the internet or you're dealing with people who expect all of these things from you and expect a certain level of access, but also are so sick of fantic because they want continued access that they never have any like they're entirely incentivized to keep things as light as possible because they're afraid of pissing off the studios or the powerful agents or whoever, right? Exactly. And not to not to just isolate this to the film industry. This is also like the record

12:20label companies too. Like if you are a young female pop star, you have to be incredibly careful what you say because everything will be taken out of context. Everything will be weaponized against you like young women are like just historically driven insane by this type of process like which Apple Rome was put through like it's not just obviously actors that this happens too, but our culture is like very ill at the moment. And I think the internet has like destroyed our brains. Yes, yes indeed. It really has. So obviously I want to get to our Oscar predictions, but I just want to do like a power speed round through some films I saw recently. If I'm recommending them or not recommending them, I know Meredith you have like no time to go to the movies right now. So I'll just be super speedy with this. But I saw Scream 7. It's bad guys. I don't like it. I'm sorry to the hardcore Scream fans, but it is just like truly the worst kind of nostalgia,

13:24Dreck that you can imagine seeing from a series like this, bringing back some favorites in a very clumsy, ham-fisted way. You know, it's been not awesome watching Scream 7's roll out with like you know from firing Melissa Pereira for you know saying Palestinians deserve to live. And then they're like very crappy use of AI. And then ultimately leading to this product, which is just quite bad. And it's going to make a lot of money, but at what cost? You know. Yeah. And it's really, really frustrating because I, everything I've heard about this troubled trouble production is just that they had to completely redo everything that they were trying to make happen. And it's so disappointing that it's going to make a God awful amount of money because everyone is living in, everyone wants to live in the past right now. And I'm sorry, I don't blame

14:26you. Like I definitely over rely on 30 rock quotes when something stupid happens in the news. And like why did this joke happen in 2009? But at the same time, I do try to think about what else is going on. I do try to recognize I would like to rather see something new. Then watch another version of like, oh my God, some crazy people decided that they needed to be more like the original scream killers. And you know, just give Matthew Lillard something interesting to do instead of like giving him money to have use his voice or however they bring him back quote, quote for this one. It's just like, come on guys. I hate this. At least it was kind of funny. Yeah. Yeah. When he pops up in scream seven, he gets like a big reaction from the audience like people like Matthew Lillard. I'm like, please just put him in something good. I fucking disagree with

15:28Quentin Tarantino, although again, honor his right to say it. But I think Matthew Lillard is a good actor and should be put in more vehicles. But yeah, not a fan of scream seven. I also saw the bride everybody. And I'm sorry to say it is quite bad. And I know a lot of people are shitting on Jesse Buckley. Man, Jesse Buckley's getting hammered right now. I know people are saying she's bad, that Christian Baylor bad in this film. But having seen it, it's just a screenplay failure. And I don't know what they were supposed to have done with this material. Like I don't think it's their fault that it is as bad as it is considering the framing device of this film. And I'm just going to say it because fuck spoilers. I feel like it's out there enough already for people to know this. The entire framing device of the film is that Mary Shelley is speaking. She is like reanimating the the bride. And so Jesse Buckley's performance throughout the film

16:29is this very schizophrenic thing where she's like fluctuating between a 1930s sort of like Harley Quinn accent and a very pro posh British lady. And it's really off putting and bad. But I don't know how you do that in a good way. You know what I mean? And I was really curious. I saw people who were like, oh, it's definitely a failure, but it's an interesting failure. And then you said you were going to see it. And and your reaction was hilarious to me because you're very funny when you really hate something. And also extremely helpful because otherwise I probably would have decided to see it. And if I want to see a mediocre movie about the bride of Frankenstein, I will watch the Jennifer Beal's Sting movie The Bride from the 1980s. Thank you very much. Because that's the level like I want. If I wanted to be bad, I needed to be bad in the way that it would be on like WGN in

17:31the middle of the afternoon on a Saturday or like something that shows up at 930 in the middle of it on USA. I do not want something that's going to just be a disaster. And some like as you said, like Penelope Cruz and at Benning are in this movie. Amazing actresses that I want to see. So to see them wasted is really frustrating as well. And also it's like very frustrating. Yeah. And I think the thing that really struck me the most about what you were saying. And something I think would be helpful to our listeners is that it sounds like it's just incredibly second wave feminism piled. Yeah. And I was like cringing in my seat. It's really, really embarrassing. And I just think that like I'm sorry. What are you doing Maggie? You're not that old. Your daughter is getting arrested at Columbia protests. Why are you dorkening out in this movie?

18:32Yeah. And like believe me, I'm really primed to I wanted to like this, right? Like and I really hate that the immediate response to this was very like defensive on Maggie Gyllenhaal's part. And this goes to Emerald Finale as well with weathering heights. I don't think you do your film or yourself a service when you respond to any criticism by basically saying it's sexist. I think it's very insulting that you can't stand there like in your truth and allow your film to be criticized without sort of using that as a shield because I'm going to be honest with you. This is just a bad film. So like the feminism aspects of it are really clumsy and poorly done. But that's like in addition to the fact that the writing is bad. In addition to the fact that it's edited like an insane person edited it. Like you're like multiple failures of this film that have nothing to do with the fact that you're like a lady director and it's about being a lady

19:34in the world. You know, like and I just it really makes me feel gross when that's the first response of like, hey, weathering heights isn't very good. And it's like here we go with the sexist backlash. And it's like, no, because women can make bad films too. That's real equality. Men can make bad films and women can make bad films. We just got you back to back, which is a little rough, you know. Yeah, yeah. And I just think like, I kind of wanted it to be good too because I was underwhelmed by Guillermo de los Horos Frankenstein. So you kind of think maybe having a woman doing it. But there's something to be said for this is also just a great opportunity to say that people should go back and watch the James Whale, 1935. Brighter Frankenstein with also Lannchester and Boris Karloff. And then also gods and monsters, the movie about James Whale, starring Ian McKellen and Brendan Frazier. Because they're wonderful piece, they're both,

20:35they're wonderful movies, both of them. And there's something so cool about being able to watch a movie made in the 90s that talks about all of the things that James Whale was dealing with that led him to be capable of making a movie that was so beautiful and thoughtful and scary and powerful entirely because he was this gay man in Hollywood at a time, this British gay man in Hollywood and all of these issues. And you know, there's just an enormous amount of subtext in the original. So just go to the source. Don't worry about the reinterpretations. People don't need to reinterpret it. It turns out the black and white version is just fine. Yeah. And you know, I am sympathetic to Maggie and Emerald and all creators right now in Hollywood because you can't get anything made unless you're willing to do IP. So I understand why Maggie made this calculation. I understand why she thought it would be a good fit for her. I am just very sad because like,

21:35I thought the lost daughter was a great film. And I think Maggie is very Maggie, like I know her. Maggie, Jill and Hall is like a very talented director. And I would love to see her and Emerald and everybody afforded the opportunity to make original films with original scripts and not have to take what is even though, you know, obviously written by a woman, traditionally what is considered like material that's been handled by male directors through the male lens and sort of get like the leftover scraps of something that they have to reinterpret and be like, but what if a lady did it? You know, like, I feel like having to go second is always inherently a disadvantage because everybody compares it to the original and they're like, it's not as good as the original and everything women do. It's like slightly of lesser value. But if we were able to tell original stories, that would be tremendously helpful. And I feel like Maggie, Jill and Hall would like eat that up.

22:37Yeah. Well, and also, or let her adapt something that feels very much in her wheelhouse. I think that there's a level, I don't want to say ambition because I don't obviously ambition in filmmaking from women is not a bad thing. But she clearly was so well attuned to the material she was working with when she adapted the last daughter that like let her continue making some small films before you give her some enormous budget fiasco. I mean, like, don't throw her into the, they kind of did her like they do a lot of the Marvel directors where they find like one small interesting proof of concept. And then it's like, okay, here, fail. Yeah, I feel like part of the here fail is like this like entire franchise is crumbling around us because like the VFX are getting so bad, the screenplays are not there. I, I'm sort of torn on this one and I disagree a little bit because I feel like this is what we want major studios to do. We want them to give like smaller filmmakers that have proven themselves a bigger budget on a bigger film. And like,

23:41so I'm not necessarily opposed to like the thinking behind this, which was like we have a director Maggie Jalen Hall who hasn't been given a big budget before. Let's support her. Oh, it's the, the bride. It's like a feminist text. She's a feminist. She's excited to tackle this like I get every step of the thinking. It just didn't work. And unfortunately, unlike a male director, women don't get endless chances. So it's like this, this hurts. This hurts that this tank, and she might not get another shot at it, which sucks. Yeah, I think that's the thing is that I would be, I would have a slightly different approach to it. And I would be more, I think if it wasn't going to be the moment that now she's not going to get another chance because I, and I don't think that women should have to make choices about what they do in order to avoid having this happen because like we shouldn't have to, we should just be allowed to fail as much as

24:43we want. We should be allowed to fail like other like dudes get to, but I, I think there's just something that's a little frustrating since clearly she's extremely savvy that this all kind of played out. And I wonder, I really hope that it played out this way. And she has like the next move already planned. I like, I would like the idea that she's got this, you know, part of like her next chest moves are covered because that would be really satisfying for B2C. Yeah. And also I would just say like in general, and this, this is, I'm referring to myself. I'm referring to you. I'm referring to Maggie, referring to Emerald. When you are presenting something as being like feminist, just remember that you are a white lady and that you do not speak for all women because there is a part in the bride where in a very hamphisted way, Maggie is trying to show that the bride has inspired like this feminist revolution. And there are like

25:48women of color taking up arms and like shooting their guns into there. And I was just like, this feels like extremely cringy white lady feminism that you would just like assume that your version of feminism applies equally to like women of color too. And it's like that to me is like the most shallow reading of, that's like first wave feminism, you know. Well, and yeah, to make the movie and not actually grapple with the fact that like if this was really, if this were happening in the story, a lot of the people of women of color who were picking up guns would immediately start shooting white women. Like, yes. And would be immediately murdered by the police, like immediately murdered by the police. Yeah. Yeah. And it's on weight. That's a fantastic segue into, um, into our Oscar predictions because a big favorite tonight is another movie made by a white person where black women get to have guns. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. We're going to get to it. My last, um, rec is I saw send help very late. And I

26:54loved it. And I thought it was great. And the most unrealistic part of it to me was, um, me being asked to believe that the Regina George is ugly. Um, but other than that, I had a lovely time. I, again, I saw it on opening weekend with Dana and we had such a wonderful time just squealing with Delight, having just so much fun. I, in some ways, like, especially since we were talking about VFX before and like things, just how things look bad now, I was kind of comforted by how bad the CGI looked. Because like, in San Braini movies, the CGI has never looked good. Like even in the original Spider-Man movies, it was very cartoony. So I appreciated that they were like, well, we still don't have much of a budget. So I guess we're going to make like these few visual jokes. And then the rest of it's just going to look ridiculous. Fantastic. Yes. I completely agree. I think it's like top shelf San Braini. Um, I had a wonderful time.

27:58Yeah. So I just wanted to get to that because I hadn't had a chance to review it on the show. All right. Let's get to our Oscar predictions. I've already talked to Meredith about this. Guys, our predictions this year are going to be a total shit show. I'm just calling it right now. There are many categories where things are extremely tight right now. Things are very up in the air. Can we just sort of like briefly discuss what's happening with sinners right now? They, they feel like they're having like a last minute surge. Um, I, okay, I feel complicated feelings about this where like on the one hand, uh, sinners is one of my favorite films of the year. If we have time, we'll get to our top films of the year after our Oscars conversation. But top three film for me, I, I really, really love sinners. I think Ryan Kugler is a fucking genius. I think he is a tremendously exciting filmmaker. The future of Hollywood. I'm so excited to see

29:00everything he does. Um, I think he has been very smart in, in presenting this film to the public. And I like, I credit him completely with the, the surge in this film. However, I think he is sort of like lifting the entire film with him to a tier where I think the cast is incredibly strong. I think everybody did a wonderful job. Um, I'm really, really like strongly considering Woomni and, and Delroy and the supporting categories because there's so much love for them and they, they did such a wonderful job. Getting swept up in that is Michael B. Jordan. And I am like baffled by the fact that he might win. He might win now. He, he did a fantastic job. He clearly put in great work. He did find a way to make the characters feel unique in his double role. Do you actually think that?

30:05Do you think that? Uh, I actually kind of do. I think that overall that his character was written in such a way that it was actually made extremely easy for him to do that. So I think he actually had, I think that it was like, yeah, they made it possible. I think that it was like, he had everything sort of laid out in a way that made it possible for him to do the best of his, to the best of his ability. And it just happens that that is significantly lower than everybody else in the cast. Yeah. So in my opinion, and again, like, I think Michael B. Jordan is a proper movie star. I think he's very talented. Seems like a lovely man when he's not defending Jonathan Majors, um, like legit, just like a very, again, the future of Hollywood, right? Like a great, great actor. I think he's so lucky. He has this partnership with Ryan Kugler because Ryan is just

31:05masterful at pulling this performance out of him. Because if you've ever seen Michael B. Jordan in a film that wasn't a Ryan Kugler joint, I mean, uh-oh, like it's not good. And that is not, it's pretty grim. He's very limited. And I want to be like very clear in saying I don't think that's a bad thing because we have historical precedent of say like Martin Scorsese and Robert De Niro's partnership where it's like Scorsese could pull something out of De Niro if you've ever seen De Niro in like one of his worst films, uh, sometimes he seems like he can't act. It's like, is this the same De Niro that I saw in that Martin Scorsese joint? And it's like that, that partnership is just very special and he can pull that performance out of him. Similarly, I see Ryan Kugler as being extremely gifted and pulling a performance out of Michael B. Jordan that we usually don't see, right? And I don't think that's bad. I don't think that's a discredited to Michael B. Jordan, but I will say this to me, in my opinion, he's like the fifth best

32:11performance in centers. We've got Womni, we've got Delroy, we've got Miles, and we've got Jack. And then we've got Michael B. Jordan. And again, this is a very strong cast. I think they, well, I don't want to give spoilers away about my predictions, but I think they're the best cast of the year. And so being fifth and that lineup is not bad, but I will say, in the best actor lineup, I think he's the weakest performance. Oh, I agree completely. I absolutely agree. Meredith, he might win. Which is really, and I just, there's also, there's something because of it. Everything is so, because things have gotten so messy because of everything that happened at the BAFTAs, because of where everything is in the country and the world right now. It feels, it feels gross and weird and unfair to that he might win when it's not actually rewarding the

33:15fact that he's great, you know? Like, that's what I, and I understand the, this is what I mean about we're not judging best performance anymore. We're getting into the mess of acknowledging that the academy is extremely racist, acknowledging the fact that that fucking terrible thing that have been at the BAFTAs where Michael B. Jordan and Delroy had to stand on stage and have the N words screamed at them like horrible, right? Yeah, even though like, obviously, by a disabled person, it was not his fault. I understand all of that. But like, we are going into this race with everyone being like, this is no longer about sinners. It's no longer about Michael B. Jordan's performance. We would just feel good if we gave him best actor. And to me, that is like, this is how we get into having to do makeup awards down the road, because we're not awarding the people who deserve it in the moment. Yes. And also, this is, with all of the concern about showing that we are not the kind

34:17of people who discriminate against marginalized communities and are not doing DEI or whatever. Like, what do you think you're doing by frantically pulling this shit out of your ass? Like, you are not, I know, you're not beat. You're not respecting these people for their immense talents. And so this is like, I, this is going to factor into some of my predictions. And I want to, we're going to get into a discussion about best picture and best director. So I don't want to give that away. But these are like all the things on my mind where I am making like panic last minute calculations, because I'm like, well, shit, now we're not even talking about the acting anymore. I'm trying to predict like what the new academy body, who by the way, we don't know what the makeup is anymore of like, they've been trying to get more international voters, more people of color. But like, we still don't know what the fuck that looks like. So you, you begin to start to try to calculate what they might be doing politically, which is like, we'll make you insane. Yeah. And

35:23it's really insane. Should we get into it? Yes. So best production design. We're going to start there on our ballot. We're not going to go any deeper than that because we don't have the time. But and we're going to sort of like loosely do a should will format where if like the spirit moves you Meredith, say who you think should win. If you don't have a should, just go to the will, you know? Okay. Yeah. So best production design. We have Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, one battle after another, sinners and hamnet. In my opinion, I'll go for, I'll go first this time. You'll do first next category. So we're not, you know, stuck in a rhythm. But I think it should be the great Jack Fisk. He has this body of work that has not been acknowledged yet. One of the greatest production designers of all time did an amazing job on Marty Supreme. That's my should. Will I think is going to be Frankenstein because I think they're going to look for some of these crafts awards to award them. Interesting. I also think that Marty should win. But I think it,

36:30I do think it will win. I just think that some of what I'm, I'm going with it because I happen to think that some of these smaller awards are going to end up going to Marty because other things that are bigger are going to go to sinners. So. Okay. My, my bold prediction is I think Marty is going to completely blank other than. To me, and I think it should be to me, but I really don't know what's going to happen. But I think it's going to blank all the way down. All right. Awesome. That's a really, I think that's a really fun prediction. Onto next or under the next one. Yes, best. Best costume design. We got Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, Avatar, Fire and Ash, which I'm like, what hamnet and sinners. Meredith, you go first. I put down, I think sinners go like should win. But I think that's a, that's one where I think there's a really good chance Frankenstein takes it specifically because of me, a goth stresses. Yeah. I'm also going Frankenstein

37:34for costumes. So that's Kate Hawley for costumes. And they are beautiful, but come on. I agree. No, no, please know that anytime I say Frankenstein's going to win, I don't think Frankenstein should win. I do not really like that film. So I'm just trying to calculate what the academy is deciding, but I don't think Frankenstein should win anything. I thought it was a extremely middling. Best visual effects. We got F1. We got Jurassic World rebirth. We got Avatar, Fire and Ash, sinners and the lost bus. I think this could be a moment to award Avatar. I do too. I also think and this is going to sound so ridiculous, but I'm saying it anyway. I think if there were real justice in this category, they would give the visual effects to F1 because that movie is so stupid, but it is really fun to watch. Oh, I didn't talk about this, but Charles, front of the show, and I are doing the Oscar marathon at AMC. So this weekend, we saw half of

38:42the best pictures late. Next weekend is the other half, and I finally am going to see F1 next weekend. So I'm seeing all of the best picture nominees. So funny. I mean, it's really not a good movie, but it is one of those where I'm like, oh, yeah. I'd rather see that one win than some of these others. But I do think Avatar is probably the most likely. My main hope for this is that they spread out the love a little bit. I'm a little afraid it's going to be complete sinners on one battle after domination, which will be so fucking boring. So I'm hoping that for some of the craft's awards, they do spread it out a little bit. Yeah, agreed. Next up is... Yeah. We've got Frankenstein sinners, Sirot, F1, and one battle after another. You know, oh, you go first, you go first. Oh, so I have sinners question mark here because there's a

39:46part of me that's like, I don't really know what... This is just one where I feel like it seems likely because it's going to be either one battle after another sinners. And I think I put sinners because I was like, I guess out of the two, I'd rather that one win, but I don't have a clue. Yeah, this is when I start to get into like political calculations, because if you're going to award best picture to a film, you have to start awarding some of the craft lower awards. So I also have sinners. If they were going to spread the love in a way that I think would not cause riots, this would be the place to give it to F1. I also think that's true. Yeah. I think because we're building this narrative of like the package, right? And if you're building the package, you have to start awarding sound and editing. This is probably where the package will start being built for either one battle after another or sinners, but I'm also going to go

40:48for sinners. Okay. I'm so glad that we both have the same sort of like, well, I guess this is how I would think of it, but because of all of this stupid bullshit, this is and that we both came down to the exact same place. It's just endless stupid bullshit this season. So I don't know what to do. So I'm trying to think how they're thinking, but I don't know how they're thinking. It's very crazy making. So best makeup and hair styling. We've got the ugly step sister. Coco, the smashing machine, Frankenstein and sinners, and am I going to go Frankenstein again? I went Frankenstein. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Good. Because people love Guillermo and you know, the makeup looked okay, I guess. Like it doesn't, I feel like it just seems like something I would expect them to do. Right. Exactly. Okay. So all right. I feel good that you don't think that's complete. I'm looking

41:51at this though, Meredith. I'm giving a lot of lower awards to Frankenstein. I know, but there's just don't don't remind me of the year, the shape of water one things. Don't remind me. Don't remind me. No, I'm wondering if I'm going to switch production design. Oh, interesting. Yeah. I think, because right, if I told you something, one production design, costume, best hair and makeup, I just feel like, and I don't think Frankenstein's going to win the higher ups. Yeah. No, fuck it. Fuck it. I'll keep it. But just put a pin in that that I said that. Okay. I will remember that for the future. That's what we got it. Yeah. Okay. Great. Thank you so much. Best documentary feature film, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, the perfect neighbor, the Alabama solution, cutting through rocks and comes me, see me in the light. You go first for that.

42:55I think that it's going to be the perfect neighbor because that movie was show upsetting. If it isn't, I feel like it'll be the Alabama solution, honestly, because I think there's just an enormous amount of interest in awarding a documentary film that talks about how terrible the United States is at the moment. And I don't mean that in a way that's that's, I don't mean that in a, oh, come on, guys, kind of way, because I do agree with that. But it just feels like given last year and no other land and the zone of interest, like, I just, I think that there's a lot of desire. There will be a lot of desire there to make that statement. But what do you think? Yeah. Much like sinners, I've been seeing this like late surge for the Alabama solution, but I I am with you. I'm going to put the perfect neighbor. But I would not be surprised at all if the Alabama solution, one, I have not had a chance to see the Alabama solution. I hopefully will be

43:58able to see that before the Oscars, but the perfect neighbor is like absolutely devastating. Yeah. I mean, for it was incredibly well done given that it's all body cam footage. I mean, it's really insecurity footage. It would be a well-deserved achievement, even though there's I also think that any conversations that people have about the things that make them uncomfortable about the movie and like how the woman who killed her neighbor was turned into this villain when she's obviously extremely ill, they're just worth having. And I want us to have more conversations like that when we're discussing how sick our culture is. Absolutely. So best animated feature film, I think we're aligned on. The nominees are Little Omelie or their character frame, Zootopia 2, K-pop Demon Hunters, Arco and Elio. I have K-pop Demon Hunters. As do I, I just think that it was such a phenomenon that unless, and I admit I haven't seen them,

45:05so maybe everybody will decide that there's something incredibly sad in the other ones that doesn't, that makes them feel like they want to go with it, but it's just, come on, you know. Come on. They have the best songs. They're going to perform the songs at the Oscars. Come on. Yeah, that's how I feel. I'm just like, come on. Best international feature film is a fucking bloodbath. So we've got the secret agent. We've got Sirot. We've got it. It was just an accident. The voice of Hein Rijab and sentimental value. What the fuck Meredith? What do you think? I mean, there are 1980s wrestling matches that were less brutal than this category. Like, it's ridiculous. I think that there's a really good chance that voice of Hein Rijab wins because, again, there's so much, but I also know that there's been a very, very concerted low-key

46:07campaign to smear that film, and I know that given how a lot of older voters are, there's a very good chance that that might work. I just, I honestly don't fucking know. I think that I don't, I don't know. I think that if Wagner isn't going to win best actor, then maybe it could be the secret agent, but then you've got Sirot and sent a little value. I honestly see it as being my should is it was just an accident, but I think for the Academy, it's down to the secret agent and sentimental value. You bring up an interesting point with Wagner Morah because I could see people, I mean, there are some people speculating that he might win best actor. I would be surprised if that happened, but again, I don't know the behind-the-scenes machinations of like Wagner's out there. He's like, he's, he's rubbing shoulders, you know, like, add a lot of like

47:11screenings for the film. So maybe he's quietly been building this support, and if, but if they feel like he's not going to win best actor, maybe they'll feel like this is where we can support the film. There's also a surprising amount of support for sentimental value. It will be interesting. I, I feel like Selin similarly is sort of getting pushed out of the supporting actor race. And again, voters might be like, this is where we can, we can support the film. I'm going to go secret agent. Okay, interesting. I think, I think if it doesn't, if the smear campaign on voice of Henry Job works, I think secret agent is likely. So, but I also don't have any fucking clue. So it could be anyone. And honestly, any of these movies would be well-deserving of the Oscars. Like, this is one where it feels like you have to choose which child to save when only one of them can get on

48:16the lifeboat. I know. And I, I didn't say this at the top of this episode, but putting aside the, the online hysteria, this is an incredibly strong year. And I feel like so grateful to have seen these films. And I, I think it's like a borderline miracle. We got three in my opinion, American classics in the same year. We have sinners. We have Marty Supreme, one battle after another. I think those are classics. And instead of celebrating that fact, people have just been like tearing these films apart. And I'm like, I certainly, we can always discuss films. We can always criticize them. That's all valid. I think we should do it respectfully. But like, I don't know. I just think this is a very strong year. And we should all be like happy. And like, celebrating these films. I agree. I think that this is one of the better years that we've had. And in some ways, it feels like it's happening against all odds because it's just with a

49:18paramount of it all. I'm just like, oh, how did they, it's like, oh, I guess they were all just like, I somehow, what? Those exact, the executives that said yes to sinners, they were just like, well, it's now or never. And I mean, it turns out it may never, it may be never, ever again. So good maybe never, maybe guys, it might never happen again. Yeah. So let's like appreciate the fact that we got some great films out of this. Okay, next category, best editing. We've got one battle after another F1 centers, sentimental value, Marty's supreme. Traditionally, the best editing category is like where the package starts. Like if a film's going to go on to win best picture, they start to win these like major technical awards, right? With that in mind, my should is Marty's supreme. Marty's supreme has one of my favorite cuts. No, Marty's supreme has my favorite cut of the year during Holocaust honey to Gweneth going to the the suite is my favorite

50:25edit of the year. So my should is Marty's supreme Ronnie Braunstein and Josh Safdie. But my will is one battle after another. So my will is one battle after another and my should was also Marty because I think there's something, it's a movie about, it's just such a stressful film, but the story is not in any way that stressful. And the editing is what creates the tension in that story. I mean, the editing is what makes those table tennis games exciting. What makes his frenetic scrambling exciting. So I just think it's, it should be a natural fit. But I do think it'll go to one battle after another. Yeah. Which also has great editing. But come on. Yes, absolutely, absolutely. Again, we are, we're spoiled this year. Best cinematography. We've got a Darius Congee, Marty's supreme, Adolfo Volosa for train dreams, Dan Lousen for Frankenstein,

51:29Michael Bauman for one battle after another, and Autumn Derald, Archbaw for sinners. I'm going to be like a fucking hypocrite for this one, but you go first. I think Marty's going to win, but I think sinners should win. Oh, you think Marty's going to win. I actually think Marty could win here. Wow. I love your optimism for Marty. I really do. Very Marty of you. I'm going to go with sinners for this one, which if it sounds like I'm being, if I'm contradicting myself, because I'm saying this is where the package usually starts, it's because I'm very torn about what's going to happen for best picture. So I'm going to give this one to Autumn, though, for sinners. I do think she deserves it. I think the cinematography is unbelievable. And also, there's so much that she was doing in the four, like in different formats. I mean, thinking about all of it, it's just an incredible amount of work. And I selfishly,

52:31and entirely in keeping with the kind of stuff that we were just talking shit about for the first 40 minutes, I want a woman to win. Yes, same, same. And I think Autumn's a great ambassador for her field and the technical aspects of her job. Much like Ryan, she's a great communicator when she talks about her job. And she's younger. And I think that's very exciting for younger filmmakers to see someone like her working successfully in the industry, because it's very inspirational. So that would be one of those rare wins, where it's like she deserves it, and it feels really good. Yeah, it wouldn't be a gimme. It would just be a sort of like, oh, this person did an actually spectacular job on this. And it turns out to be beautiful and exciting, because this is a genuine example of the next generation of unbelievably talented, you know, technical side filmmakers. And God, we need more of those.

53:35Absolutely. Best original score. We've got sinners for Ludwig, Gorenson, Hamnet. Oh my God, Max Richter. One battle after another, Johnny Greenwood, Bagonia, Jerkson Fendrix, and Frankenstein, Alexandra Desplatt. Yeah. I go first. Yeah, you go first. I'm going to say, I'm torn on this one, because for a long time, it felt like Johnny Greenwoods to lose, but Ludwig has been like out there, man. And people love the music and sinners. So I'm going to go sinners. Interesting. I still kept one battle after another, but thought it should be sinners, because I tend to, but that's a personal preference. As much of a radiohead fan as I was when I was in my 20s, I think that Ludwig just had more to work with and had to pull more things together. And it feels like Johnny just knows what he's doing. And there's nothing wrong with being incredibly good

54:39at making scores for Paul Thomas Anderson movie. I just think that Ludwig does interesting things every time he works on a Ryan Cootler movie. Agreed. Best original song, we got Train Dreams, Diane Warren, Relentless. Come on, girl. Sinners, Viva Verde, and K-Pop Demon Hunters. Oh, man, I like, oh no, you go first. Thank God. I mean, there's just no way in hell that Golden doesn't walk away with this. It is a song that you cannot escape and have not been able to escape for nearly a year. So I would be shocked if it did not get it. It is going to be funny for Diane Warren to lose again. And frankly, it would be very funny if it turned into a K-Pop Demon Hunters thing where Diane Warren has been a demon this whole time. And the three women from the from a huntrix had to fight her. And frankly, if that doesn't happen, I'll be disappointed.

55:39Do you think there's a slim chance that Sinners takes it? Because people love that song, they love the performance, but I also have K-Pop for this. Yeah, I think that it's just there's something there is this I would say there would be a slim chance and I would be shocked in a good way if I lied to you one because that song is amazing and obviously like it's central to the key moment in the film. But yeah, I just think it's going to be golden. Yeah. Best casting we've got Hamlet Sinners, Marty Supreme, one battle after another and the secret agent. My should for this one is Marty Supreme. I just think like there are so many great faces in that film. I love that cast, but I think Will is a Sinners. Oh, I think that the my should is secret agent because they have I thought they're just such interesting faces, such like and I think there's

56:41a big push for that in many sort of film nerd ways. But I do think that it'll go to Sinners because that just makes sense to me. Right. Okay, we've got Adapted Screenplay. By the way, I apologize if you can hear me typing. I'm just writing down all of our predictions so we can see how wrong we are. Best Adapted Screenplay. We've got Frankenstein, Bagonia, Hamlet, one battle after another and Train Dreams, Meredith. What do you think? Oh, I think it's going to one battle after another. I think that there's just no way that it doesn't walk away with the screenplay. Yeah, that's how I feel. It's one of my like sort of gimme categories. And then we've got Original Screenplay. It was just an accident, Sentiment of Value, Sinners, Blue Moon, Marty Supreme. My should, Marty Supreme. My will is Sinners, obviously. Actually, let me modify that a little bit. My should is both Marty Supreme and Sinners. My will is Sinners. I think like this is where

57:48like you for sure acknowledge Ryan Kugler. I think so too, especially and I think it works both ways either as it's going to be a package or it's an acknowledgement that one battle after another is going to get the rest of the get the really big awards because it's just such people. It's such an original idea in a way that nobody was I mean nobody wanted it until it came out and then suddenly it was like holy shit. So I think there's I just think that's going to be there. And in this case, this is another should where I don't have one because I would be really happy if any of them one because I think they're beautiful all of them. Agreed. All right, here's where we get into the acting awards where I might as well just be throwing a dart at a dartboard because we can't glean anything from any of the precursors at this point like I feel like I am going in completely

58:51blind into Oscar predictions, but best actor in a supporting role. Sean Penn, one battle after another, Stalin Scars guards sentimental value, Jacob Ellority for Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo for sinners, Benicio del Toro, one battle after another. Who has to go first? Thank God it's you. Oh my God. I I still think Sean is going to win. Yeah. I just I don't know I just feel it. I just feel like the inertia of unknown quantity in him will have gotten him enough votes right away that it just couldn't be taken back afterwards. My show is Delroy because dear lord that man is amazing. And I just think that he deserves the world. And I'm glad that he's been nominated, but I absolutely want it would kill to see him win over Sean Penn because Sean Penn is such a piece of shit. It would be very, very satisfying. We're in the exact same boat. My shit is Delroy

59:57will is Sean Penn when I I was at the premiere of one battle after another in New York City and I was like Sean Penn is going to win. And then throughout the season, people sort of like drifted away from that prediction, but now we're coming back again because he's won some of the precursors. And I think I don't think the academy cares. He already has an Academy Award. I think they're going to give it to him. I just think there's I the only word I can use for it is inertia. There's just something about this like yes, you know, Benicio has an Academy Award and in all of this, but you just I just see it as he's just the easy choice. And people do like to reward supporting actors who play villains in weird ways. Like I just you know, it's interesting. You know, it's really interesting. They like a villainous supporting actor. They don't like a villainous protagonist, which we're going to get to in a second. Exactly. Exactly. So that's

1:00:59those are my predictions. And I guess we're yeah, we're in the same boat. Yeah. So best actress in a supporting role. Again, what the fuck? I don't know what I'm going to do. Um, Womni Musaku for sinners, Tiana Taylor for one battle after another, Amy Madigan for weapons, L fanning sentimental value. And then Inga, I'm sorry, I'm not going to say a full name for sentimental value. I'm so this might be the hardest category for me. We're like, it's hard because it's hard to decide. And then it's also hard because this is where things have gone so off the rails in previous awards shows. You know what I'm going to look up right now? The critic circle awards for best supporting actress. Oh my god, am I going to be able to find it? Uh, okay. Oh god, I'm so torn.

1:02:00I'm so torn because I could see an argument for three of these actresses. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, I do. Um, god damn. I feel like I shouldn't over sink it in like my grand scheme of everything that's going to happen. I'm going to say Tiana. See, I say it's probably going to be Tiana, but this is one where, okay, we can't really say who should win because anyone could win. And all of the performances are great. So like, hey, let's just have fun with it. Well, yeah, I won't say anyone could win. I'll say three of these actresses could win and I would not be surprised. It could be Womnia. It could be Tiana. It could be Amy. I just think that if I'm thinking of the package narrative and where I think this is headed, Tiana would be part of the package. Yeah, that makes sense. Okay. Oh god, best actor. Michael B. Jordan for centers. We've got Wagner Mora

1:03:08for the Secret Agent. We've got Leonardo DiCaprio for one battle after another. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon, and Timothy Shalamay for Marty's Supreme Meredith. What are your thoughts? I, I'm actually one of the people that thinks that Wagner Mora may come in and take it because specifically, the Leo Timmy crowd will be split. And I just don't think that Michael B. Jordan deserves it. I agree with that. And I understand the thinking of splitting the vote. Why then are you thinking Wagner will take a split vote and not Ethan? Because Blue Moon isn't a very good movie. I don't have a good reason for it. I just think it that way. It's just so my brain worked. I totally agree. I am baffled by people who think Ethan Hawke is going to take this. I don't think Blue Moon is strong enough. But okay, here's how I feel about this. So is that your final answer,

1:04:09Wagner? Yes, that's my final answer. Look, if I'm going to be wrong, I'm going to be really wrong in a weird, fantastic fashion. I'm obsessed with this. The years that you and I agree 100% are like so boring. So like that. I love that you're calling Wagner. And by the way, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Here's how I feel. I'm going to lose it. I'm going to lose it if it's Michael B. Jordan because I really don't think. And I'm trying, again, I don't mean this to be unkind because I love sinners and I love Michael B. Jordan. He's the weakest actor in this category. It's so crazy to me that he is now like leading the polymarket predictions. And I don't think like inaccurately because so much enthusiasm has built for sinners to the point where it's like, I guess him too. And it's like, what? What are we doing? I fuck. You know, I am at peace with this

1:05:13knowing that I'm probably going to be wrong, but my should and will is Timothy. Interesting. I like it. And I think that, you know, given it that it was your favorite movie of last year, how much you loved it, just go with it. And it would be wild and yeah, it would be wild and fun. Okay, on to actress actress. Okay, we've got, if you can even believe it, Emma Stone's been nominated for an Academy Award, everyone for Bagonia, Kate Hudson, Song-Song-Blue, Renault for sentimental value. Roseburn, if I had legs, I'd kick you and Jesse Buckley for Hamlet. It's Jesse. Yeah, I picked it. It's going to be Jesse too, although we, I think we also agree that the shud should be Rose. Absolutely. Roseburn, my favorite performance by an actress of the year, I briefly felt good for Roseburn when I was watching The Bride because I was like, you know what, Rose, you might not win the Oscar, but you didn't make this film.

1:06:16That's how I feel. Okay, let's get to director. This is where it's going to get real messy, everybody. Okay, so Paul Thomas Anderson, one battle after another, Joaquin Treer, sentimental value, Chloe Zhao, Hamlet, Josh Haffney, Marty Supreme, and Ryan Kugler sinners. Okay, you go first, so I'll hold my reason in. Okay, I still think it's going to be Paul Thomas Anderson. Again, I've been seeing this late search for sinners, but I think it's going to be Paul Thomas Anderson. As much as I love one battle after another, I think it would be kind of fun if Ryan Kugler won. I don't know. It's just really, it's a tough one, but that's where my predictions lie. I agree, but consider this, what if this is one of the very rare years where we split director and picture? So we either get Kugler for director and one battle after another for a picture,

1:07:16or we get PTA for director and then sinners for better. I believe it or not actually feel like there's a really good chance that happens, which is crazy. Like if you look at statistically of that happening, like it, like this is such a fucking wild year because, but before that reason, I'm like, he might split it, but then I look at the precursors, like if you follow the race, like I follow the race, which is to say like a crazy person, and you look at all of the precursors and all of the guild awards and all of the critic awards, it's going to be PTA in one battle after another, like on paper, on paper. Yeah, it's interesting. I also think that there's, yeah, if things went wild, I just still think that it's going to be Paul Thomas Anderson and then maybe it should be, it would be sinners as the best picture. We can just roll right into best picture because it's the next one anyway, because I still think that it's more likely that the film itself wins best picture and they don't honor the black man who made it

1:08:23versus then giving Ryan the best, the giving Ryan a best director Oscar and then giving the best picture to one battle after another. I just think that it's like, are you calling sinners? I will, I still, I actually do think that one battle after another is going to win best picture, but I think if there was a split, that's the reason. It would go sinners for best picture and Paul Thomas Anderson for director, because I think they would be more likely to award the movie and not acknowledge the black person and black people that made it versus like, it's just a film that sprung out, like nobody directed this kind of thing. Yeah, like historically, like the numbers support your thinking where like the academy has a terrible track record of failing to award black directors. The highest they'll give them is usually like a screenplay award. Sometimes they'll give picture, but statistically they like do not give them director, which is a racist. So that's

1:09:26why I'm like, if there's a split this year, I agree with you. It would be very interesting if Cougar got director and then one battle after another got picture, but the reason I think we're overthinking it, there's a lot of older academy members who, who know PTA, who are familiar with his body of work, who know this might be the last chance they get to like award him. And he is a director who deserves it. That's a really good point. Yeah, I think they're going to be like, this might be our only shot, whereas Ryan is like at the start of his career and like, I could easily imagine him directing another best picture nominee, you know, like so I think there's going to be a calculation of it's like now or never for PTA. So you're thinking that it's going to be that we're going to start putting Cougar explicitly into the Spielberg slot where they're like, oh, of course, he's going to make another great movie and make him wait. They might make him

1:10:27wait. But I mean, like, listen, this, this might be with to me too for best actor, like there's this assumption, he'll be back. And I think that's like a crazy calculation to make because you like don't know what's going to happen in this man's life. We don't know if he's going to be back. And you could see the same thing about Ryan, right? Where it's like, how do you know? How do you know he's going to be back? Award him now. But it, this is like a tight, tight, I think it's way tighter than I thought it was going to be at the beginning of the season between one battle and sinners. But all of the precursors are telling me it's still going to be PTA in one battle. Yeah, I, that's where I would be least surprised. But honestly, I feel like it's going to be a win if nobody gets arrested by ice. And I don't know, like, it's not as embarrassing as last year. I don't even, or not as embarrassing as the Golden Globes. Like, there's just got to be something.

1:11:27We're not as embarrassing as BAFTA. Just like, I hope nothing awful happens and everybody is celebrated and everyone is normal online. Just kidding. I know that's not going to happen. But yeah, those are our predictions. I can't wait to see how wrong we are. I know. I'm really excited too. And I can't wait. It's like, you know, we don't have long to wait. Thank you for listening for, as we went way over time for all of this. But God, I love getting crazy with you on this every single year. I love that we, yeah, I love that we have differing opinions this year because that's going to be interesting to see what happens totally distinct conspiracy boards. Yeah. And we're both going to be wrong. It's going to be so fun. All right, guys, let us know your thoughts. We're on blue sky. You can email a show like trees and news at Gmail. If you're a fan of the show, go to lighttreesand.news and smash that donate button to keep us going. Thank you so much for listening. Have a wonderful rest of your weekend.

1:12:29And while you're at it, get out there and cause a little trouble.