3/25/26-Baseball Betting Show

0:00Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball, this is the Baseball Bedding Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson. Hey, boy, my family, though. Welcome to Loving Las Vegas for the Baseball Bedding Show with myself, Greg Peterson, now part of the Visa and Family podcast. And boy, oh boy, it is so, so good to be back here as this is a podcast that is going to be uploaded every single day at midnight Pacific 3 o'clock AM Eastern in which we've got baseball games. So for those of you guys that have listened to the podcast in the past, it is the same format, picks an analysis on every single game, every single day, and then the final segment. Well, we've got a nice warm up one game between the Giants and the New York Yankees. I'll give you guys picks analysis on that. As we touch them all, we'll have much more games tomorrow and moving forward, but a little bit of a warm up on the podcast today. Here in segment number one, I'm going to talk to you a little bit about how I break down baseball, how it might vary from a few other sports I handicap, big reason why I really don't tie me to futures as well, though,

1:02these next few days, I will talk to a few guys that do have some baseball futures. Our good friend William Borrow right action. Now we're going to be joining me tomorrow. So if you're looking to get on some of those last second win totals, things like that, you're going to be able to do. So I personally am a little bit more of a game to game better. So I'll talk about that here in the first segment as in segment number two, our good friend Curtis Rodgers. He does pre-imposed game osing over at 710 Seattle Sports. He is the pre-imposed game most for the Seattle Mariners. He's going to be joining me and I have to talk with him, obviously, a little bit about what we can expect from the Mariners this year. The American League West in general teams that he's feeling full of slash bearish on as well. And then in the final segment, we break down that first game as we touch them all. If you do have a question, comment segment idea would I have you for this podcast? If wanted to waste, we'll fire those in. First one is my Twitter slash X timeline at G unit underscore 81. Keep an eye on Larcy, and they mean does that matter. So per usual, please send these into the timeline. And the other way is find an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five stars, it's very much appreciated them from there.

2:03You're able to fire in whatever you'd like to your own this podcast via that five star view. And really didn't receive a ton because well, I know that a lot of you guys are in college basketball mode right now, but that said, I do want to just parse through a little bit about my handicapping style with regards to baseball first things first big reason why I'm just not really too much of a features guy is because you don't know what to expect with regards to injuries. And sometimes you just have a player that just has a completely awful year like we see that time and time again when it comes to baseball like I remember a few years ago Marcel Zoon was terrible. And then like he became the most important player for the Atlanta Braves and speaking of the Atlanta Braves, they had so many injuries last year. It's a felt like it was a some cold lead pipe lock of the century of the week that they were going to be able to make the playoffs in 2025 that did not wind up happening. So I do think that it is very important at least for my perspective to just be keeping it a little bit more game to game because I don't want to have my money tied up and something for six plus months for one. I know that there's some people I kind of like there are

3:06other people that they better exclusively features. And if that is you just do what works for you because for me features is not necessarily my forte. I've learned this over the years. If you're someone that you find a lot of success with features by all means do so. And that's the biggest thing of everything as well because there are some people out there that they're very successful game to game. They don't have a lot of success with features vice versa. And then there are some that are in between AMB me and do it relatively okay job with features. Maybe you're not killing it but you're doing an okay job. Maybe you're not killing it in terms of game to game. But again doing okay. Be just pick your spots. That's all good too. So I always encourage you to just do it worse for you. Never be a what I like to call blind tailor just because someone throws out their a pick whether that be this fine podcast whether that be out there on social media whether that be someone selling picks always bet what you like and what you truly believe in that I think is always bigger than anything else. But that's that for me I just really capitalize on the fact that I do consider myself a grinder like this podcast has been uploaded every single day.

4:07Which we've had majorly baseball games since 2019. That's what I really specialize in the game to game sort of grind taking a look at things one day at a time. So it's a big reason why I say away from futures. I try to maximize my efforts and my just overall tensions ban in terms of the game to game action. And for me when it comes to baseball I do like to handicap a few days in advance but that comes with a caveat like if you take a look on bc.com if you take a look on my Twitter slash x-feed at you in an earned 41 you'll find the link with my spreadsheet with daily handicap baseball lines. It's always good to be up there and there'll be a few days in advance. I do post some of my initial numbers but as you know with baseball there's open usage sometimes if you have like a three game road trip out there in Milwaukee and then you have to travel to Cincinnati. Sometimes you have a reindeer delay in one of these places. I would throw hope down in Milwaukee because man yeah marine delay in Milwaukee you could say they have a roof then something is what horribly wrong there but that said you have an extra ending game in the case of a game in Milwaukee

5:08if you're playing in Cincinnati maybe you get a reindeer there that late travel can sometimes cause for a little bit of strife that does cause a little bit of just wearing a tear on a team in general and then you obviously have the pitching switches as well which you're going to find quite a few of those sorts of beginning part of the season as well. So I always think that you need to be valuable with that regard but for me personally I do find a lot of success with having numbers in mind because I do think that for me personally and this goes with all sports I want to have a number in mind before I truly go to bed it because I don't want the influence of the books and the odds makers to be having influence on my personal handicap and again I will be making adjustments if I see like a heavy bullpen usage or it's vice versa. Guys there was a complete game bullpen's completely fresh that helps out the team. So I always think that that's very important to be doing as well. I always want to be taking a look to see if there's like some last second weather safu especially when it comes to a place like Reguli field that's why you're typically not going to find totals posted at Reguli field until the day of the game for opening day on Thursday

6:13it's going to be a little bit of a different situation but for the most part a lot of books are going to be waiting until the AM to be able to post up those numbers but I do think that with baseball as well when it comes to the early part of the season I typically will shade down my totals a little bit because while there is a big part of it as a lot of people know if they're in the Midwest it's been very very cold I am someone that was born in the great state of Wisconsin I know you Wisconsin I've got a lot of snow here over the last week or so and it's been less than great to say the least that means that the balls that would be flying out in June and July probably not going to be flying out this time of year I will slash Curtis about this as well we now have the actual replay with regards to the umpires now with the replay system you're not going to be getting every single ball and strike review you have to prompt the replay some we're going to be diving in on those aspects a little bit with Curtis as well who does that help who does that hurt I personally think that might help out the better it's a little bit more than the pictures but I see a lot of the games for Thursday with higher totals and what you're

7:14typically going to find on opening day and I think that perhaps they've went a little bit too far there so that's something that I always like to be taking a look at as well maybe I'll need to make a little bit of an adjustment there that's something that is very much worth keeping in mind and when it comes to coming into the upcoming baseball season I am not going to utilize too much of these spring training stress now I feel like exclusive to this year and this is something else I'm going to talk about with our good friend Curtis Rogers being able to gauge out these guys did in the world baseball classic I think it's going to be a good little indicator of what we can expect out some of these guys early on during the season and there are some guys that maybe got buried on the bench are very good players I know that one that Curtis brought up since I already did the interview it's going to 100 sin and I could actually hurt them a little bit but seeing them in a very good live game situation a little bit different than if a guy maybe got sheldon spring training but he was trying out a whole bunch of new pitches everything like that the biggest thing that I take a look at with regards to spring training is actually out there on the field and where you like a good example of this is Zach Wheeler of the filled off the affiliates which obviously he

8:15had a very unfortunate end to his season last year you feel bad for the guy and Zach Wheeler we should be seeing him at some point here in the season this year probably going to be starting out the first few weeks down but that said he'll probably be back up relatively soon but I recall fading him for like the first two three games of the season last few seasons because he oftentimes sit at either a stop and start in terms of spring training or he didn't get in his full lot but of work during spring training and that turned out to be successful after he got two or three shirts under his belt he wound up being the Zach Wheeler that we all know and love the guy that you're able bank on and made you a whole bunch of money I think that those are big things to be taking a look at and there are some stand-up performers at the plate that hey maybe you should be taking note of like some of these guys that come over from Japan as well like how is the Japanese numbers going to be translating to America Cody Ponds the Ponsation who was over in the KBO last season he was terrible with the pirates a few seasons ago goes over to the KBO completely dominates how is he going to be looking now is he the same guy that we saw over with

9:16the pirates is he going to be as dominant as he was with the KBO probably going to be somewhere between AMB and taking a look at track records of success like track records of failure I think is going to be something that is very interesting as well because we're going to be talking about this player with our good friend in Curtis Rodgers as well like I like an Adley Rushman Adley Rushman was bad last year I think that Adley Rushman will admit that Adley Rushman was bad last season and he was banged up two years ago he was an all-star looking like one the rising stars in all baseball had a big impact on his team being the other wing games how to be of a gauge a guy like that it's falling I do think that when it comes to the upcoming baseball season you have to rely a lot on the 2025 numbers to start with once you get I would say about a month worth of data that's typically where I land four weeks sometimes a little bit more sometimes a little bit less with pictures I think that perhaps you want a little bit more than a month because especially the first starter too you're going to be seeing starters go lesser in the games like

10:17typically a lot of these guys are going to be limited to more like 70 to 80 pitches whereas typically in a start you're going to be going closer to a hundred pitches now that'll vary from picture to picture especially with the young guys but I think that that's important to be doing as well so those are all big giant elements in terms of taking a look at things obviously ballpark dimensions is very big and that's something that I always try to account for like you're not going to be setting the same total and coolers field as you're going to be at say my Amy for example I think that that's always very important to be doing as well and then obviously have the weather implications things of that nature so home field home court advantage in any sport is very important but I do think that's very big for baseball totals in general as well because these ballpark dimensions some of these ball parks they are very very helpful to write these sometimes are very very harmful to write these as well like the Crawford boxes out there at Houston very good example of this as well so I think that there's a lot that is to be taking a look at and the breakdowns I give you every single day on this podcast that's exactly what I'm taking a look at that's exactly what I'm factoring in and it's just like with those of you guys that

11:20listen to my college basketball podcasts every single game is its own living breathing entity based on how available such on available the open is the righty lefty splits the location of the game is it a hot weather game is it a cold weather game is a player streaky or not like when it comes to college basketball I very very rarely use trends I very very rarely use streaks yeah there are some teams that they get hot and cold towards back half of seasons but I do think that baseball is a little bit more of a streaky sport it's a sport where you can see a team lose honor games but there's going to be like some two weeks fan where Colorado Rockies sorry the Colorado Rockies are probably going to be terrible again this year but there will be like some two or three weeks fan where the Colorado Rockies look like the LA Dodgers saying it's going to be absolutely hilarious when they make you a whole bunch of money for those two or three weeks and then they go back to being sad and pathetic and I don't think that they're going to be quite as sad and pathetic as they were last season I sure hope not because that was really really bad but I do think that when it comes

12:21to baseball sometimes you just need to do a five check you need to take a look at all right my second games these guys have been really really good so there's a lot to factor in the full season sort of data points and the last ten last fifteen games of data as well so there's a lot of parsing through there's a lot of just situational handicaps in baseball it's a money line sport like when it comes to reading the spreadsheet that I've got we're going to just utilize this for the Yankees versus Giants I made the Yankees a minus one thirty three favorite and what that means is that if the money line were to be minus one thirty two or less I'd be willing to lay it with the New York Yankees and a plus one thirty four higher I'd be willing to take a shot on the Giants like right now as I'm recording this I'm seeing between about like minus one fourteen minus one twenty two the Yankees that's a buy point on the Yankees and sometimes with this there's just no buy point like I set this line at minus one thirty three let's say that the Yankees are minus one thirty five and the Giants are plus one twenty five in that case I would be taking a look at the run line price which I do the exact same thing with the run line if there's nothing there

13:24you shop the line you wait around because sometimes when it comes to the day of the game first pitch you find a little bit more of a differential you'll see a lot of seem come in I have found at like four or five am Pacific seven o'clock eight o'clock am Eastern that's one a lot of folks get on the apps they get on there and they start to fire in so I did think that that's always something to be doing and then with regards to totals like I said a run total of a seven point two when I do for the run total says I pretty much simulate all right how many runs do I think would happen if they play this game twice like if they played this game twice I think that the Yankees would score thirty eight total runs and the Giants would score thirty four total runs for a total 72 so that's why I put a total of a seven point two in there so I want to be trying to keep things right round about minus one ten minus one fifteen with regards to totals I actually think that you can find great value in terms of going up or down a half a run if you're getting like plus money like I said the soda has seven point two if I were to take a look at an under of seven but I was

14:26getting like plus one ten or something like that I actually would take the plus one ten at a seven to go under because I'm getting that plus money in this case right now we're looking at the board of Yankees versus Giants you're getting pretty much even money minus one of five to take the over which I do find my advantage with because seven point two is higher than seven that is going to be a buy point for me on the over like if this were a total of for example seven and a half am I some point two I'd be in on the under as long as we have the respectable juice again I think that that point of no return for me is minus one twenty for others it might be minus one fifteen for others it might be minus one twenty five for me it's really minus one twenty once you get past that I think that you got too far and I am going to be a little bit of an advocate for like plus money now I don't want to be going to extreme like if you're trying to go under six and you're at plus one ten and I make my total seven point two that full run of differential that's just not enough for me to be enticed by the plus one ten you'd have to be giving me something something huge like maybe plus one twenty five yeah and plus one seventy five we're certain to find a

15:29little bit of an edge there but not currently at like a plus one ten or something like that so I do think that those are all big things to be taking a look at because with baseball it's a money line sport sure you do have the run line and there's going to be times when like the Colorado Rockies are playing and they're going to be getting plus two and a plus three and a half and with the daughters you might be mean lay minus two and a half minus three and a half I do very very very very few alternate lines I try to keep it to the minus one and a half because I do think they're win by more than two runs of baseball can be very difficult even for a lot of these top teams but I do think that with regards to baseball it is all about just being able to win over time as well because a lot of people are always in terms of sports betting in general being like oh what's your win loss record and everything like that in baseball you can legitimately be ten and ten and be up a whole bunch of money like if the San Francisco Giants you bet them ten times and they go five and five at plus money you're up money if the New York Yankees in this series go five and five and you're laying minus one 20 every single time

16:31you're down money like that's a big thing with baseball always be keeping in mind the units rather than the wins and losses now it's obviously a little bit correlated unless if you're taking massive chocolate blues uh because if you're laying minus two dollars even if you're hitting out like 60 percent you're still going to be absolutely miserable but that said always be taking a look at that because you're not getting as much minus one ten minus one fifteen aside from really the totals of major league baseball you're going to be lying some juice from time to time and I wanted to lay juice like I'm never a person that thinks that there's needs to be a threshold for how much juice you can lay because one of the best bets of my life was when Floyd Mayweather was taking on Conor McGregor in a boxing match my first out here on Lovey-Laws Vegas I was able to get minus four dollars up for me weather and I put pretty much my entire bank account on it because I was sitting there thinking well he should win this fight 99 out of 100 times if you think a guy is gonna win 99 percent of the time minus four dollars is actually really really really good value now I'm not one of those guys because we see some of those

17:32out there with regards like the NCAA tournament laying nine thousand on the one seeds yeah that's going a little bit too far and baseball you're typically not gonna find minus nine thousand so that's a good thing but I said I don't think that there's a specific threshold now I personally I'm not going to be giving out a bunch of Chaco minus two dollar favorites or anything like that I typically find a lot more value when a team is like minus two dollars but they're at home lying like a minus one of five even money sort of run line that's a way that I go personally but again there will be some times where I will take that Chucky money line over the run line as well again situational handicapping so hopefully that clears up a little bit of what I do with regards my baseball handicapping again any questions fire those in at G unit underscore 81 and how about if we jet it up with our good friend Curtis Rogers he does such great work over at 710 Seattle sports as a pre and post game most of the Seattle man Anderson joins me on the flip side right here on the baseball betting show myself break Peter said I want to be some family podcast

18:36breaking down every game every day in major league baseball this is the baseball betting show here is your host Greg Peterson and we're back you'll believe us Vegas for the baseball betting show with myself Greg Peterson now part of the visa and family podcast if you've listed as five podcasts over the years you'll recall this fan Curtis Rogers this I believe he was my first guest on this podcast last year as well and it's because he does such an incredible job looking at this great sport of baseball he's over there at 710 Seattle sports as he pre and post game host for the Seattle Mariners he does a great job covering all things out there in the in the Pacific Northwest whether that be the Seattle sea ox I know that he has joined me a lot on the coast to coast soups college basketball podcasts as well looking at that great sport and so much more you're will follow him on the old Twitter slash X a lot of Instagram at a kid from Kent altogether and Curtis welcome back my friend it's been a long time and it's great to have you on thank you it has been we're knocking off the rest of the off season but it's a joyous occasion opening day is just a couple days away I'm super excited for this season

19:42and it just feels like coming off of how special the the world baseball classic was there's just so much momentum heading into this season so much excitement I can't wait to dive into it with you Greg and I can't wait for for opening 80 game here it's almost here yep it certainly is and how much do you think that you were able to gauge some of these players that were playing in the world baseball classic rather than just spring training because I think one the biggest tricks for myself just handicapping this is trying to determine what's for real what's for not when it comes to spring training because you have some guys are just trying stuff out there are some guys are trying to make the team and with the world baseball classic that's a very very so we say competitive environment where I feel like you get a better gauge with these guys the guys who did participate in the world baseball classic I think they have a bit of an edge because you've got much more of an in-season environment when you play in such a tournament like that where you don't really have to worry about hitting the ground running like you have already played in big moments to start your season and also I think it's a benefit for the guys who are left and

20:45camp the guys who didn't play in the WBC because they just got more reps they got more time to play they got you know a starter's workload so I think it's a benefit for nearly everybody now the guys who I do kind of worry about though are maybe the guys who would normally start in their lineup that just because of how deep the world baseball classic lineups were maybe didn't get their usual allotment of starts I think about a guy like Gunner Henderson who is obviously a star level player in major league baseball was nearly a 10 win player a couple of years ago for Baltimore but him and Alex Breggman were kind of in a time share a little bit guys like Cal Raleigh and Will Smith they were going back and forth between who was starting who was going to be the backup catcher so there is maybe a little bit of concern with those guys did they get their full allotment of spring training at bats did they get their full work in it didn't have a conversation with you know some people in the Mariners from office prior to the WBC you just asked them you know hey is there concern about sending so many guys I believe the Mariners had 17 which was the most

21:49or time for the most in baseball and they were like no not too much we just told the guys that you know if you want to go playing the WBC you have our blessing you just got to make sure you get your off season working in time and make sure that you know everything is taking care of before you go because we just don't have an eye on you when you kind of depart for whatever your country so it's mainly beneficial for everybody but there is still a little bit of concern about the guy who maybe didn't get a play as much during the tournament yeah but I think that that's very well said by you and I think that there are some positive sense of negatives to it as well as Curtis Rogers who does such great work over at 710 Seattle sports is joining me right here on the baseball betting show and you mentioned there were a few Seattle Mariners that part took in the World Baseball Classic I think Cal Raleigh and Randy Arosa Raina were the most famous of the two with their little bit of a brew ha ha so that was good clean family fun right there but that said how do you take a look at this Mariners scene going into the season because for the Mariners for the most part they're always fighting for that playoffs spot it's dependent upon the year whether or not they been able to get the job done and now I feel like with the Astros fall off in the AOS it's now

22:52becoming incumbent upon the Seattle Mariners to have expectations of not just making the playoffs but perhaps winning the division itself yeah I think that is where the expectations start this year is a repeat of a division championship and I think beyond that I think even the guys in the clubhouse will tell you that they want to get to a world series in the absolute worst way with how close that they got last year eight outs away from a world series it has just been eating away at them all off season longs we've heard from guys like Cal Raleigh and Julio and Brian Wu and just you know how close they got last year I think it was Brian Wu that said something to the effect of like this is no longer a cute story anymore like we're not that these plucky Mariners anymore like we're a team that we want to be considered among the games very best we talked to a few big national names like Buster Olney and Tim Kirkchin and they have very high expectations for Mariners overall I think if they fall short of an ALCS this year I think that would be considered a disappointment amongst a lot of people like I think they have a very real shot

23:55at winning an American league pendant this year which is where did it's been a long time since the Mariners winner a season with expectations this high it's been I would say maybe 25ish years since they entered a season with expectations this high I mean heck even when they won 116 games back in 01 they were kind of expecting to take a step back as that off season they lost Alex Rodriguez and the Texas Rangers so even in you know the 2001 off season they weren't expected to do as as well as they did that year so I think these might be the biggest expectations they've ever had as a ball club so I'm super excited to see how they come out playing can they live up to those expectations can they say healthy I know they've had a couple of bumps and bruises in camp it looks like JP Crawford's expected to start the year on the IL looks like Bryce Miller two will probably start the year on the IL dealing with an oblique injury so those are two big contributors but other than that you got a clean goal health you got a couple of prospects that are kind of knocking at the door as well so there's going to be opportunities and I just think this year is shaping up to be one of the most important ones in Mariners history

24:57oh it certainly is especially with the big bad wolf and the heathen ass are seemingly taking a little bit of a step back and what are your expectations for them this year because everyone is used to seeing them in the playoffs everyone is used to them being able to win the AL West of the fact that they didn't last year was a culture shock to many people but I think that's going to be very fascinating to see what they're going to be able to do this upcoming season because they don't quite have that core that they used to have when they were going to the ALCS time at time again yeah and it does kind of feel like they have sought out veterans to kind of make up for the deficits in their firm system as of late you look at their roster very veteran heavy guys like east sock parades guys like Jose Altube Carlos Corea Christian Walker as well who was a disappointment last year for them you've got a lot of guys who can probably play D H3 and that's I haven't even mentioned you're an Alvarez who's the youngest of that group but also coming off of the year where he had plenty of injuries that held him back so I look at this Astros team Greg and to me do I think they can get to the playoffs I think they can but that's if everything goes

26:05right for them I think this might be another step back for them this year I don't think they are going to be right there with the manners atop the American League West but look if everything goes right for the Astros I'm not counting them out they've got a good back into their bullpen solo josh hater but you know you don't have framer valdez eating up any's in that rotation you are now hunter brown his emergence has been really special for them he has become one of the best pitchers in the American League EMI is going to be an interesting name to watch in that rotation as well coming over from Japan so I think Houston if everything goes right can get into the wild card in the American League but I just don't see a world series contender something that we have kind of come to expect from them over the last decade I think this year might be another year where they kind of reassess things and hopefully build that firm system back up it's going to be probably a couple of years before we see Houston maybe back to the contender level that we've come to know them as over this era of major league baseball yep I'm right there with you I do

27:05think that for the Astros it's going to be a little bit rough for them and I do think that that AOS in general is going to be interesting because with the Astros obviously it feels like they've taken a step back with the angels they made a few okay off season moves if they are starting Alex Manoa holy crud just better against the angels every single time they throw him like I don't make a lot out of spring training but my gosh that was really really bad but that said who might be the biggest competitor to the Mariners because the more I look at this division obviously the Rangers are there but the more I'm really liking this athletic steam I am right there with you Greg I am glad you brought up the A's because that offense in that ballpark that is going to be an absolute launching pad it's going to be Coursfield S this season they have got dudes in that line up for sure Nick Kurtz you've got Jacob Wilson you've got Tyler Sodders from Lawrence Butler I mean Shaolin Galeer has had a really good season he's done underrated yeah exactly he's a really

28:06underrated catcher and Major League Baseball made a lot of adjustments to his swing not as many strikeouts last year and really became force offensively that offense is really really good now conversely the pitching really really bad last year because of the ballpark they're playing and can they get more out of their pitching rotation that is going to be the biggest key for this A's because they're going to put up runs they're going to put up runs on everybody you just got to make sure that if their score runs on you you score runs on them because they're going to be really competitive if they can keep teams off the scoreboard just even so slightly even just a little bit more than the year prior how do you mention Brent Rucker who was in the home run derby last year for DH they're very talented DH so yeah that A's lineup Greg it is really really good and the fact that most of those players are really young as well just a credit to their ability to develop those bats but if they can get just even a smidge of pitching that's an A's team that I don't think anybody wants to face and especially an A's team that no one wants to face maybe you

29:10know a couple of years from now either when these guys are really coming to their home yep I'm right there with you I think that that team is going to be a lot of fun and that's certainly a team that feels like we're both high on to be able to take a strike forward this year and are there a few other teams that you take a look at a major league baseball that you feel like teams people might be sleeping on it they might be teams that maybe they're not going to challenge a Dodgers for the world series because anyone that challenges the Dodgers for the world series I'd be a Hercule the infeed but they might be a win more games than the public is expecting I'm expecting a bounce back from the Orioles this season I thought last year obviously a very disappointing season for them but the addition of penal on so that is huge for them and the young guys on that team taking a step forward now I think the big key for for Baltimore is Adley Rutchman cooked like is he not going to be a good player anymore like it's very odd to see a player go from as talented as he was to what he has been over the last couple of years now Rutchman had a pretty good spring had an

30:11a 50 OPS during the spring so that's encouraging for them they go to Bessallo behind the issue is a very talented guy as well you've got Gunner Henderson still there can guys like Colton Couser can Heston Kerstead can they take a step forward Kobe Mayo these are guys that they really need Jackson holiday I mean this was the most touted farm system in a long time that the Orioles Tad and obviously now they need some of those names to kind of step forward and really do some some special things but the emergence last year of Trevor Rogers I think was big for them I think the Orioles right now Greg are a team that I'm not going to overlook but I think they really need some of these young guys kind of take a step forward here in 2026 to know what they really having them I agree with you Curtis I do think that for the Orioles it's going to be really interesting because they signed Pete Alonzo in the offseason as well so that's a guy that I think is going to be really interesting and obviously when it comes to national excited things I pointed at it a second ago the LA Dodgers if you don't have them atop the National League right now I don't

31:14know what to tell you're just in denial you can love the Dodgers you can hate the Dodgers you can feel indifferent of the Dodgers but it is quite literally the best team money can buy right now but if there is a team or two that could be able to provide a little bit of a charge into the Dodgers that could be able to push them a little bit who might that team be because you remember as well as I do the Dodgers didn't even have home field advantage against Milwaukee Brewers in the playoffs last year they were very banged up they got healthy and then they make that world series run but is there a team or two out there in the National League that you're feeling bullish on? in the National League you always got to be mindful of the Phillies and their rotation especially you know they got Christopher Sanchez locked up to an extension I think they're always going to have a lot of talent and the meds will continue to spend now it is the meds it's always a gamble just banking on them to have any kind of consistency but I mean you look at their talent on that roster great you bring them both a shirt I think Marcus Semyon is an interesting name to watch with them I think he could have a bounce back here kind of getting away from that Texas team where it kind of

32:15felt like maybe some tension between him and Corey Seeger Semyon maybe expected a bounce back from him that would be a big big thing for them and I also like the signing of Jorge Polanco Polanco had a lot of big hits for the Mariners last year they had 20 plus on runs they're going to make him kind of their first base maybe utility guy in that infield so I think the meds are an interesting team to watch in the National League and it kind of feels like in the central right now I would say the brewers even though not a whole lot of additions made by them I still think they are the most talented team in that National League Central the Cubs are a team that made some improvements as well especially bringing over Alex Pregman now they did lose Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers that's that's no fun but there's still some talent in that National League Central as well heck even the pirates I mean they look pretty improved this offseason so who knows what they're capable of and they've got Connor Griffin kind of waiting in the wings he'll start the season in AAA but I would expect him up pretty soon but if they're going to get challenged the Dodgers are

33:15going to get challenged by a team of the National League I think it's going to come right now maybe from a team in the National League especially and who knows maybe the Braves bounce back as well there's still a ton of talent on that roster they're not that far removed from being one of the very best teams in baseball one of the very best organizations in baseball so I think there's going to be some pretty decent competition for the Dodgers in the National League this year do they run away with it I don't know I think they're definitely capable of getting you know high 90s low 100s in terms of wins but I don't think it's going to be a walk in the park necessarily every single night for the Dodgers yep I'm right there with you that's where I'm sort of at with the LA Dodgers as well and I do think that's going to be interesting to see what we get out of them moving forward and I do have to ask you about this as well as we know there's been so much gripping about the umpires there's been so much made out of that finally we are going to be getting an automated strike zone who do you think that help slash hurts and is this going to be an advantage like this revenge do either the hitters or the player or the hitters or the pitchers that's an interesting question I think ultimately it will probably be for the hitters I think this

34:22is a move geared towards generating a little bit more offense because if there's a a questionable cold strike and it's on the corner and it's a ball then that goes to the benefit of the batter now obviously the pitchers can also initiate a replay if they so choose the catchers can initiate a replay if they so choose but judging based off of some of the comments that I've heard from catchers and from pitchers this off season it sounds to me like these guys just don't want to do it because they kind of have respect for their fellow umpires and I've heard oh was a Chris sale of the braves I think he team out and said he was never ever going to use ABS and it's like okay let's find for you but if I'm a batter going up against him and there's anything that I can use to potentially help myself out against him I'm gonna do it now you do run the risk of using one of your challenges early in the game and do you want to use your challenge

35:24in a scoreless game in the second inning no runners on base that seems a little you know not too advantageous you'd want to save it for you know seventh eighth ninth inning runners on the corners two outs in a big moment that seems to be the more advantageous spot for that so there is a bit of a chess match for ABS right now but ultimately I think it will benefit the batters more rather than the pitchers and the catchers I'm actually I'm really looking forward to it and I'm looking forward to seeing it just kind of on a day-to-day basis it has felt a little weird in-screen training but you know what we thought the pitch clock was weird and that hasn't become something we don't even really notice as much anymore especially with game times being a much more palatable two and a half hours two hours and 45 minutes rather than three and a half hours so is this so much different than the baseball that we grew up with yes but again if it's going to help us get better results then I think ultimately that's not something we can really complain about it may be a little clunky to start but I think over time it's going to become something that we just kind of don't

36:30really notice as much anymore we have called for for a very very very well I'm especially if you're one of those people like myself you've got a better team with the bases loaded two outs in the balls five inches off the plate called strike three you're like you got to be kidding me every single team has felt the brunt of that to say the least so I think that it's going to be a very good thing how it's going to be utilized I think that that's anyone's guess but you mentioned it a lot of people thought that the pitch clock was something that was going to like destroy baseball this is a traditional sport how are we bringing in a clock and it's worked out very very well so I'm right there with you Curtis and Curtis it is going to be an amazing season you're going to be dialed in on it all because you do pre-imposed game osing for the Mariners and you do so much more with this great sport although just in general they're in the Pacific Northwest so let me give you people know what's all that for you and how people are able to follow on social media and other platforms yeah we have got a ton of Mariners content coming out especially with the start of the season being here we're broadcasting from the ballpark on opening day and then every

37:31minute is off day I come out with my podcast called extra ratings you can download it Seattle sports dot com or on the Seattle sports app wherever it is you get your podcast too a lot of great content coming out the YouTube page Seattle sports is what you want to search to find all of our Mariners content out here in the great Northwest and Greg always appreciate you having me on can't wait to talk to baseball with you over the course of this 162 and even in the October it baseball's back I'm so excited I know you are as well a time of year this is for us I cannot wait for this season to start so thanks again for having me it is going to be an amazing season and Curtis he does an amazing job looking at this great game that we all know and love a baseball cannot wait to get him on throughout the season and every single time he joins me on subscribe insights big thanks to Curtis for joining me on the baseball betting show now part of the visa and family podcast coming him next we start off this baseball season with one game it's giants versus the New York Yankees on Netflix which didn't think that we would have Netflix game to start the season but here we are and I'll give you guys an analysis for next week

38:35come on breaking down every game every day in major league baseball this is the baseball betting show here is your host Greg Peterson and we're ready to love you boss Vegas for the baseball betting show with myself Greg Peterson now part of the visa and family of podcasts always great to be joined by our good friend Curtis Rodgers who does amazing work over at 710 Seattle sports every single time he joins me one such great insights he did so once again so a big thanks to Curtis for joining me in last segment now it is at time the podcast I give you picks an analysis on well our lone game out of the betting board for this baseball Wednesday this opening day Wednesday as we touch them all if a game is listed on the betting board Greg has a side in the total on it so it is time to touch them all do note that as per usual any changes are made to these plays will be listed up on my twitter is like xv that jean at underscirty one I always go in lots of expectation order one there's one game that's very very easy to do so let's have some fun and let's get the baseball

39:40season started 987 988 it's a Yankees on the road against the Giants Logan Webb goes for the Giants mimax freed is on the bump for the Yankees Yankees are between minus 114 to minus 123 favorites and between a plus 104 to plus 110 is that number here on the Giants with a total of seven the unders any were three minus one 10 to a minus 120 overs between even a minus 110 and I am in on the over I did somebody told us some point to recognize a Logan Webb throughout his career has been really really good he's got some of the more demonstrative home and road splits a year ever going to find us at home for his career hovering right around about a 283 year a was 0.5 ohm runs allowed per nine and he said they go up to 3 10 last season that says high a CRA since the covid 20 20 year so had a little bit of difficulty there and for Logan Webb on the road career 395 year a was 0.8 ohm runs a lot per nine eggs max freed has always been pretty rock solid in the first half of season so in the months of March and April a career 301 ERA not a guy that's going to light it up in terms of strikeouts but he's functional in terms of giving you strikeouts

40:43last season is case per nine rate that was hovering in the neighborhood about 8.7 so I liked what I saw there and for the New York Yankees team no longer having Devon Williams in the bullpen I think is a treasure by subtraction I still think that the New York mess just completely buried that guy when he was playing for the Milwaukee brewers as I am a Milwaukee brewers fan but I mean you have to expect that there's going to be quite a bit of bullpen action here in this standalone game especially with the fact that there are I believe not going to have to play on Thursday either they pick up Camille you'd have all why boys like Camille it evolves relatively solid in the bullpen he had a sub 375 ERA my season for Daniel Cruz was very shall we say formidable for this team belong to him Hill they're going to be looking to David Benard and not poop the Benard but I mean when you take a look at what he's able to do with the players a few seasons ago that's pretty rock solid in for the Yankees average 5.2 runs per game last season that was tough in all of baseballs you've got a lot of masters are a little bit of an all or nothing team but being able to have a guy like a jazz shoes on move doesn't solve job it turns reaching me it's only needed to 42 last season but he'll draw some walks obviously has quite a bit of pop in his back that's going to

41:46help out but now you've got a few all or nothing guys like John Carlos San has become very much one of those guys thought his career and they were able to just find something which run Christian last year he looked like his career was done out there was saying the agobody hits for 34 on runs last season but the addition of Cody Belinger I think it's big now Anthony Volpe is the own full little bit of an injury but again he was a guy that didn't hit for any sort of average whatsoever now you're probably going to be having Jose color bra you giving more at best obviously his power isn't quite as good but he's a guy that's able to reach base and you have a meta risario as well we can place him in field as well he's another guy that can move the line in for the San Francisco Giants the Rafael Devar is trade through the first like 50 60 games was not great he did have a strong second half of the season I think that the Giants are going to be able to reach base a little bit better this year with a pick up of Luis a rise the guy that he had a 292 last year and for his standards that was way down for him so I need to go to hit 300 pluses this fall park he's not going to be hitting any sort of home runs out there in San Francisco San Francisco a top five pitcher friendly park but I mean that's what you need if you're the San Francisco Giants guys that are able move the line having a clean bill of health

42:47for jungle Lee I think it's very big he had a good like first few games of the season then he gets hurt last season I still think that there might be a little bit of upside with some like a Harrison Vader are they picked up as well former New York thank you and himself it's all your last year like they don't necessarily have a bunch of super duper measures devers is obviously a 30 plus home run guy match em in in a normal park is a 30 plus home run guy as well in San Francisco last year more like 21 home runs and he's won the streaky as hitters on the face of planet earth but also for the San Francisco Giants they had a really good bullpen to start the year last year traded away a few pieces with devolving one of those guys and I don't necessarily feel great about it this season Jose buto's a nice multi inning guy Eric Miller is the guy that was able to get the job done last season but they're going to be probably relying upon quite a bit of Ryan Baruchius sandwiches you'll be garril our guys are right now to deal with injuries so they're going to be relying a lot on Ryan Walker as well who is not good last year northern of Fort ERA Ryan Walker two years ago 2024 this guy was amazing I think that you get somewhere between AMB like during the 2023 campaign he was posting a more like a 323 ERA but he wasn't getting too

43:49many strikeouts I think that you get more of that Ryan Walker bug with the Yankees having the firepower that they do have and again restarters they're probably only going to be going like 75 80 pitches you're not going to see their full lot man of time and I do think that the Giants bullpen really was exposed towards back half of the season I think that that allows the Yankees to give the job down here night number one so I'm taking this seven over so if I told some point to and with the Yankees I'd be won't lay up to minus one 32 on the money line in on the Yankees and that'll wrap things up for the Wednesday edition of the baseball betting show now part of the visa and family podcast big thanks to Curtis Rogers who does such amazing work over at 710 cll sports you join me in the likes segment if you do like during from this fine podcast the baseball betting show you're able to subscribe wherever your podcast Apple podcast Google play Spotify Citroen Tune if you have a question comment segment idea would I have you for this podcast you do have wanted to a video for those in first one is by twitter such as timeline at june at underscore 81 keep in mind let's see how they mean does that matter so per usual please send these into the timeline and the other ways find an Apple podcast review if you rate this podcast 5 stars it's very much appreciated from there you're able to fire and whatever you'd like to hear on this podcast

44:52by that 5 survey and we are back every single day that there's games I'm giving you guys fix him analysis on every single one of them so I'll be back if you guys want to get them off thank you